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1 Thames Gateway South Essex Housing Market Trends Quarterly Report October 2015 House, Affordability & Market Indicators
2 Housing Market Trends Quarterly Report October 2015 Introduction This report monitors the latest trends in house prices, rent and other market indicators based on Hometrack s online Housing Intelligence System ( It looks at national trends and local changes in lower quartile house prices across the Thames Gateway South Essex (TGSE) sub region by local authority area for different house types. It also compares cross tenure affordability and reviews recent market indicators. The report acts as a supplement to the data in the TGSE Strategic Housing Market Assessment (currently under review) and Housing Strategy. Changes in house prices for TGSE local authority areas are tabled in Appendix 1. Key trends National Trends Annual house price growth in September was 8.6%. The quarter change was 2.0% and the average price was 202,859. Increasing demand combined with very low supply continues to drive house prices. Many sales are to buyers with nothing to sell which created a greater imbalance between supply and demand as stock is replaced at a slower rate. The gap between London and other major regional cities is at its widest for 20 years. Local House The annual house price growth in August for TGSE was 10.84% or 26.8k The highest overall Lower Quartile (LQ) house price was in Rochford at 234k, followed by Castle Point 207k, Basildon 185k, Thurrock 175k, and Southend 170k. When compared with pre-recession prices in 2007/8 when they peaked, prices are now consistently higher for the sixth successive quarter in Rochford by 39k, Castle Point 33k, Basildon 27k, Thurrock 25k and Southend 24k. The relatively low turnover rates compared to historic rates means that homeowners are moving on average no more than every 20 years. Cross Tenure (for a one bed property) The highest weekly cost of renting a one bed property through a Registered Provider was in Thurrock at 74 and the lowest in Rochford at 68. Private renting (median) is now most expensive in Castle Point and Thurrock at 150 followed by Basildon at 144, Rochford and Southend at 137. Between, August , rent per week had risen in Thurrock by 18, Southend 16, Castle Point 13, Basildon 12 and Rochford by 5. Affordability Lack of affordable housing remains a significant issue across the sub region, where for example in Castle Point 63% of first time buyers cannot afford a flat or maisonette based on a mortgage at 3.0 times their income. This rises to 76% for those wishing to purchase a terraced property and 88% for a detached property. The latest ratio between LQ house prices and LQ household disposable income in some central and Southern wards of Castle Point were in excess of 12:1, compared to 10:85 being the average for the TGSE Postal area SS. Housing Market Trends Quarterly Report October
3 National Trends According to the Halifax House Price Index; the annual house price growth in September was 8.6%, the quarterly change was 2.0% and the average price was 202,859. Whilst the rate of growth has eased marginally, housing demand has been strengthening, underpinned by economic growth, rising real earnings and very low mortgage rates. Increasing demand combining very low supply continued to drive house prices growth. The gap between house prices in London and other major regional cities is at its widest for 20 years, according to the August 2015 UK Cities House Price Index data. Overall city level house price inflation is running at 8.3% up from 6.6% in May. Local Housing Indicators Hometrack s Housing Intelligence System allows house prices to be viewed at a local authority or even ward or super output area. Overall Change in Average House August 2014 August 2015 Local Authority Aug 2014 Aug 2015 Change % Basildon 252, , , (10.01) Castle Point 245, , , (9.28) Rochford 277, , , (12.81) Southend 243, , , (9.36) Thurrock 210, , , (11.48) Annual % price rise for May 2014 May 2015 shown in brackets Looking at the overall change in average house prices in the TGSE sub region between August 2014 and August 2015 (over a ten year time-span), prices rose in all five TGSE Local Authority areas by as much as 31,830 or 12.55% (averaging 10.84% or 26,800). The highest price rise was in Rochford, followed by Basildon, Castle Point, Southend and Thurrock. Annual house price growth for all TGSE Local authorities was higher in August than in the previous reporting period of May and higher than the national figure which was 9.0% in August. Focusing on Lower Quartile The charts over page focus on the lower quartile property price, based on sales and valuations, for property (flats / maisonettes, terraced and detached properties) in the TGSE sub region. This analysis is based on data from Hometrack's Automated Valuation Model. Housing Market Trends Quarterly Report October
4 Lower Quartile Price Overall The graph shows the sustained recovery in house prices since the recession in 2008/9. In August 2015, the highest overall lower quartile property price in TGSE was in Rochford at 233.5k, followed by Castle Point 207k, Basildon 185k, Thurrock 175k and Southend 170k. When compared with pre recession prices in 2007/08 where they peaked across the sub region, current prices are consistently up across all five TGSE local authority areas for the sixth quarter running; in Rochford by 38.5k, Castle Point 32.5k, Basildon 27k, Thurrock 25k and Southend 24k. LQ Price Flat / Maisonette LQ Price Terraced Properties LQ Price Semi Detached LQ Detached can also be shown across a range of housing types with semi detached prices showing the most consistent trends. For flats / maisonettes Castle Point had the highest priced properties whilst in Basildon prices have been more level in response to local supply and demand conditions. Housing Market Trends Quarterly Report October
5 Annual Turnover by Broad Type and Age As a Proportion of Overall Property Castle Point 2nd Hand House Sales 2nd Hand Flat Sales New Build House Sales New Build Flat Sales Overall property price bands % % , % , % 2015* % *January August only The above tables show the total volume of housing turnover in Castle Point, as the sample area, split between houses / flats and second hand / newly built houses. Annual turnover between 2011 and 2014 has increased for 2 nd hand houses, flat and new build house sales. The supply of new build flat sales has fluctuated. The total turnover is also shown as a proportion of overall property, based on Land Registry data. Turnover has increased and was 4.10% in However, it is still down from pre recession figures where it was 5.5% in 2007 (see TGSE Housing Market Trends Quarterly Report, January 2011). This relatively low rate of turnover by historic standards means that homeowners are only moving on average every 20 years or more. Furthermore, many sales are to buyers with nothing to sell which creates a greater imbalance between supply and demand as stock is replaced at a slower rate. Lower Quartile Price of Property by Bed Count (August 2015) Basildon Castle Point Southend Thurrock Rochford 1 bed (Flat) 100, , , , ,000 2 bed (Flat) 146, , , , ,000 2 bed (House) 184, , , , ,688 3 bed (House) 200, , , , ,000 4 bed (House) 310, , , , ,000 The above graph and table show the lower quartile price of property by bed count in the TGSE sub region based on May 2015 figures. For 1 bed flats; Castle Point had the highest priced property whilst for all other house sizes it was Rochford (denoted in red). Housing Market Trends Quarterly Report October
6 Weekly cost for 1 bed property across a range of quartiles compared to HA rent Basildon Castle Point Southend Thurrock Rochford Housing Association Rent Private - 30th Percentile Private - 80% Median Private Median Aug 2015 Aug Private - Upper Quartile The above table show the weekly cost of renting a one bed room property across a range of quartiles based on August 2015 prices. TGSE Private renting (median) is now most expensive in Castle Point and Thurrock at 150, followed by Basildon at 144, Rochford and Southend at 137 per week. Between, August , rent per week rose in Thurrock by 18, Southend by 16, Castle Point by 13, Basildon by 12, and Southend by 11. Affordability: 3.0 times income Sample Area: Castle Point LQ House price to income ratio Castle Point wards This above chart and map show affordability in Castle Point both by income band and spatially. The chart to the left shows the number of households in different household income bands compared to the minimum price for different property types in the same area (horizontal lines). The diagonal lines rising from left to right show the value of property that can be afforded at different income multiples by a first time buyer and former owner-occupier. Housing Market Trends Quarterly Report October
7 The chart demonstrates that a significant proportion of residents in Castle Point are priced out of the property market. For example, 63% of households were priced out of the market (i.e. cannot afford to purchase a flat as a first time buyer on a mortgage at 3.0 times their income). This rises to 76% for those wishing to purchase a terraced property and 88% for a detached property. The heat map to the right compares the Lower Quartile house price to income ratios across individual wards in Castle Point. The wards of St Mary s, Cedar Hall and Canvey Island North all have ratios in excess of 12:1 highlighting the issue of affordability. Affordability calculator for Castle Point The above graph provides a cost comparison between different tenures in Castle Point and is based on the average price for 1, 2 and 3 bedroom properties using a combination of sales and valuations data as well as open market and intermediate rental values. For Castle Point; Low Cost Home Ownership followed by Intermediate Rent was the cheapest form of tenure and Private Rent followed by Repayment Mortgage was the most expensive. Given the price range between different tenures and products, this illustrates the value of undertaking comparison checks when considering affordability. Whilst the sample area for this Quarterly Report is Castle Point, information can be readily made available for other TGSE local authorities on request. Market Indicators Time to Sell (weeks) Sales to Asking Price The above graph shows a generally improving trend; with the time to sell since May 2015 falling suggesting a possible supply shortage. The sales to asking price remains consistently high suggesting there is high demand. Housing Market Trends Quarterly Report October
8 Appendix 1 Overall House Price by Local Authority Area over a 10 year period Basildon (Borough) Castle Point (Borough) Southend-on- Sea (UA) Thurrock (UA) Rochford (District) Lower Quartile Lower Quartile Lower Quartile Lower Quartile Lower Quartile Feb , , , , ,995 Aug , , , , ,500 Feb , , , , ,000 Aug , , , , ,000 Feb , , , , ,000 Aug , , , , ,000 Feb , , , , ,950 Aug , , , , ,000 Feb , , , , ,500 Aug , , , , ,000 Feb , , , , ,000 Aug , , , , ,000 Feb , , , , ,000 Aug , , , , ,000 Feb , , , , ,000 Aug , , , , ,500 Feb , , , , ,000 Aug , , , , ,500 Change Aug 14 Aug 15 22,000 24,500 10,000 17,000 22,000 Change Peak Aug 15 27,000 32,500 24,000 25,000 38,500 Red Denotes peak prices before recession Source: Hometrack Housing Intelligence System For further information, please contact: Alastair Pollock - TGSE Strategy Coordinator C/o Castle Point Borough Council Kiln Road, Thundersley Benfleet, Essex, SS7 1TF Tel: apollock@castlepoint.gov.uk Housing Market Trends Quarterly Report October
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