Demographic Study. Princeton Public Schools. July 2014

Transcription

1 Demographic Study for the Princeton Public Schools July 2014 Prepared By: Richard S. Grip, Ed.D.

2 2 Table of Contents Page Executive Summary... 3 Introduction... 6 Population Trends in Princeton... 6 Selected Demographic Characteristics... 8 District Overview Explanation of the Cohort-Survival Ratio Method Historical Enrollment Trends Princeton High School Private, Parochial, and Charter School Enrollment Birth Data Historical Enrollment by Race Free or Reduced Lunch Effects of Housing Growth Princeton Princeton University Institute for Advanced Study Computation of Student Yields New Housing Stock Historical Construction Distribution of Homes by Year Built Enrollment Projections Projections by School Community Park Elementary School Johnson Park Elementary School Littlebrook Elementary School Riverside Elementary School John Witherspoon Middle School Princeton High School Projected Enrollment by Grade Configuration Adjusted Enrollment Projections Peak Enrollment Geocoding and Mapping Appendix... 72

3 3 Executive Summary Statistical Forecasting completed a demographic study for the Princeton Public Schools, computing grade-by-grade enrollment projections for through In addition, information was collected related to community population trends and age structure, birth and fertility rates, historical enrollments, new housing starts, and student yields by attendance area. On January 1, 2013, Princeton Borough and Princeton Township were consolidated into one municipality, known as Princeton. The community is projected to grow to 30,981 by 2040, which would be a gain of approximately 2,400 persons from the 2010 population of 28,572. Princeton is racially diverse and has become even more so in the last ten years. Whites are the majority race, comprising 74% of the population. Asians are the second-largest race, making up nearly 14% of the population. Approximately 25% of the population is foreign-born; China and India are the largest sources. The number of births, which is used to project kindergarten enrollment, has been fairly stable. With the exception of 2000 when 288 births occurred, births have ranged from 226 to 259 per year since Births were also compiled by elementary attendance area and were greatest in the Community Park attendance area. Regarding fertility rates, Princeton s rates are lower than those of both Mercer County and the State of New Jersey, which is likely due to having a large number of college students. In 2010, the fertility rate of women aged 15 to 50 in Princeton was approximately 41 births per 1000 women, while the fertility rate was 58.9 births per 1,000 women in Mercer County and was 62.9 births per 1,000 women in New Jersey. The number of Princeton resident students attending private, parochial, or charter schools in the Princeton area was analyzed. From to , the number of Princeton students has been fairly stable, ranging from a low of 698 in to a high of 773 in There does not appear to be an increasing or decreasing trend in the number of Princeton students attending these schools. The greatest number of Princeton students attends the Princeton Charter School, which enrolls more than 300 Princeton students annually. Historical enrollment by race for the district was compared for and While Whites are the majority race at 61.3% in , the percentage of Whites has declined by 5.8 percentage points since Asians made up a larger share of the population in , 18.3%, which is a gain of 3.7 percentage points from At the elementary school level, the percentage of Whites ranged from a low of 50.4% at Johnson Park to a high of 64.8% at Littlebrook. The percentage of Blacks is fairly stable, ranging between 5-8% in the four elementary schools. Johnson Park had the largest concentration of Hispanics at 21.2%. Hispanics are the second-largest race in three of the four elementary schools, with the lone exception being Littlebrook. The percentage of Asians ranged from 10-17% and is highest in Johnson Park. At Witherspoon and Princeton High School, the percentage of Whites has declined while the percentage of Asians has increased. As a proxy for measuring poverty in the school district, the number of students receiving free or reduced lunch in was studied. At the district level, the number and percent of students receiving free or reduced lunch has been increasing. Whereas 344 students (10.2%)

4 4 received free or reduced lunch in the school district in , the number increased to (12.2%) in Nearly one-third (31.3%) of the district s free or reduced lunch population attends Princeton High School while the second-largest percentage attends Johnson Park (20.9%). Regarding new housing in Princeton, AvalonBay, located at the former University Medical Center, would consist of 280 rental units. The units would contain a mix of studios and one-, two-, and three-bedroom units. A total of 56 units will be set aside for low and moderate income households. At Princeton University, there are two proposed residential projects to house graduate students or faculty. The first project, Merwick Stanworth Faculty & Staff Housing, will be located off Bayard Lane at the former location of the Merwick Care Center and the current Stanworth Apartments. A second project, Lakeside Graduate Housing, will consist of 329 rental apartment and townhouse units with 715 beds. Lakeside replaces Hibben-Magie, which is coming offline. In the last five years, the number of public school children per housing unit, or student yield, has been minimal at Princeton University, ranging from to per unit. Over the five-year time period, this is equal to an average of children per unit. At the Institute for Advanced Study, there are plans to expand faculty housing with eight townhouse units and seven single-family homes. The timetable for the construction of the new units is unknown. At present, the Institute has 169 rental apartment units for visiting scholars. In the last five years, children from Institute housing have attended the Princeton Public Schools annually, resulting in a yield of public school children per unit. To determine the potential number of children from AvalonBay, the property tax address database of all 1-4 family homes in Princeton was analyzed at the street level. For each elementary attendance area, the total number of homes on each street was extracted and the number of public school children on each street was tabulated and disaggregated by elementary, middle, and high school level (PK-5, 6-8, 9-12) by using the district s student database. Yields for detached single-family homes range from a low of 0.45 in the Community Park attendance area to a high of 0.88 in the Littlebrook attendance area. The average student yield for the school district is 0.59 children per detached single-family home. Regarding townhouses/condominiums, yields range from a low of 0.38 in the Littlebrook attendance area to a high of 0.59 in the Johnson Park attendance area. The average student yield for the school district is 0.47 children per townhouse/condominium. Student yields were also computed for four large-scale affordable apartment developments managed by either the Princeton Housing Authority or Princeton Community Village. The average student yield is 0.48 children per unit and ranges between 0.37 and 0.85 children per housing unit. Considering all the new residential construction from AvalonBay, Merwick-Stanworth, the Institute for Advanced Study, and Princeton University, it is estimated that 180 public school children would come from the developments.

5 5 Enrollment in the district as of October 2013 was 3,426 students, which represents a gain of students since the school year. Total enrollment has been within a relatively narrow band in the last decade, ranging from 3, ,426. At the PK-5 level, enrollment peaked in with 1,445 students and has been generally declining since that time. For John Witherspoon Middle School, enrollment has been increasing since , peaking at 738 students in At Princeton High School, enrollment has been increasing and was 1,471 students in , which is a gain of students from the enrollment. Total enrollment in the district, adjusted for housing growth, is projected to be 3,471 students in , which would represent a gain of 45 students from the enrollment of 3,426 students. For grades PK-5, enrollment is projected to be 1,289 students in , which would be a gain of 21 students from the enrollment of 1,268. For grades 6-8, enrollment is projected to be 639 in , which would be a loss of 48 students from the enrollment of 687 students. For grades 9-12, enrollment is projected to increase through before reversing trend. Peak enrollment is projected to be 1,611 in Enrollment in is projected to be 1,543 students, which would be a gain of 72 students from the enrollment of 1,471 students. Peak enrollment from the last ten years was compared to the actual enrollment in and the adjusted projected enrollment in for each of the district s schools. Peak enrollment for the elementary schools, with the exception of Johnson Park, occurred in the mid- 2000s. As might be expected, as the larger cohorts advance into the upper grades, peak enrollment in the middle school occurred in and in the high school in For each of the four elementary schools and Witherspoon, enrollment in is projected to be lower than peak enrollment values. However, at Princeton High School, enrollment in is projected to exceed peak enrollment. A second set of enrollment projections were completed to provide another growth scenario for the district. In Scenario 2, enrollment is projected to be 3,404 students in , which would represent a loss of 22 students from the enrollment of 3,426 students. Scenario 2 is projecting 67 fewer students in than the first set of projections. Finally, a series of maps were created by geocoding or pin-mapping student addresses from the school district for and The greatest number of children per census block in is located in the northern section of Princeton, corresponding to the Littlebrook and Community Park attendance areas, and the western section corresponding to the Johnson Park attendance area. The greatest student densities (students per square mile) in are in the center of Princeton, which crosses three elementary attendance zones (Johnson Park, Community Park, and Littlebrook). The greatest number of children receiving free or reduced lunch in is in the north and northeast sections of the former township, corresponding to the Littlebrook attendance area.

6 6 Introduction Statistical Forecasting completed a demographic study for the Princeton Public Schools, projecting grade-by-grade enrollments from through Additional information was also collected related to community population trends and age structure, birth and fertility rates, historical enrollments, new housing starts, and student yields by attendance area. Population Trends in Princeton On January 1, 2013, Princeton Borough and Princeton Township were consolidated into one municipality, known as Princeton. The following reflects the combining of data from the former borough and township. Located in Mercer County, Princeton contains a land area of approximately square miles with an additional 0.23 square miles of water area. In the recently released 2010 Census, Princeton had 28,572 residents, which is 1,546.9 persons per square mile. Historical and projected populations for Princeton from 1940 to 2040 are shown in Table 1 and Figure 1. Table 1 Historical and Projected Populations for Princeton from Year Population 1 Percent Change Historical ,970 N/A , % , % , % , % , % , % , % Projected , % , % , % Notes: 1 Reflects combined data of the former borough and township 2 Source: United States Census Bureau 3 Source: Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (2012).

7 7 As shown in the table, Princeton s population had its greatest growth in the 1940s and 1950s, approximately doubling at the end of this twenty-year period. After additional population growth in the 1960s, the population was fairly stable from 1970 to The population then increased by nearly 20% from 1990 to 2000 before declining in the most recent decade. Population projections for , which were prepared by the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission ( DVRPC ), indicate that the population in Princeton will increase, albeit at a slow rate. Forecasts project the population to be 30,981 in 2040, which would be a gain of approximately 2,400 persons (+8.4%) from the 2010 Census. 35,000 30,000 Figure 1 Historical and Projected Populations for Princeton ,230 30,542 30,981 28,572 29,011 25,962 25,718 25,214 25,000 22,301 Population 20,000 15,000 17,637 Historical Projected 10,970 10,000 5, Year

8 8 Selected Demographic Characteristics In Table 2 following, selected demographic characteristics of Princeton are compared from the 2000 Census, the American Community Survey ( ACS ), and the 2010 Census. While some Census variables account for everyone in the population (e.g., age and race), other variables are collected from a sample (e.g., median family income, educational attainment, poverty status, etc.). The ACS replaced the long form of the Census, last administered in 2000 to approximately 16% of the population in the United States. For small geographic areas such as Princeton, ACS data represent a sample collected over a five-year time period, where the estimates represent the average characteristics between January 2008 and December This information does not represent a single point in time like the long form of earlier Censuses. It should be noted that the following data is skewed by the presence of students from Princeton University, Westminster Choir College, the Institute for Advanced Study, and Princeton Theological Seminary. In 2010, 5,340 people lived in group quarters (college dormitories/university housing) in Princeton, which represents nearly 19% of the population. Regarding race, Princeton is predominantly White, yet has become more racially diverse since In 2010, Princeton was 74.0% White, which is a decline from the 80.1% that existed in Asians were the second-largest race at 13.9% in 2010, which is an increase of 5.1 percentage points from The Census Bureau does not consider Hispanic as a separate race; rather it identifies the percent of people having Hispanic origin. Hispanics in the Census population can be part of the White, Black, Asian, or any of the other race categories. It is not a mutually exclusive race category. The concentration of persons having Hispanic origin was 8.4% in 2010, which is a small increase from the 2000 percentage (6.1%). Regarding nativity, nearly one-fourth (24.7%) of Princeton residents were foreign-born in the ACS as compared to 20.1% in While not shown in the table, place of birth, which serves as a proxy for country of origin, indicates that China and India were the largest sources of immigrants in the ACS, accounting for 18.3% and 9.5% respectively of the foreign-born population. The percentages of the largest and second-largest sources are quite small, indicating a very diverse foreign-born population. In 2000, China was also the largest source of the foreign-born population (12.6%), but the United Kingdom was the second-largest source, accounting for 8.3% of the foreign-born population. From 2000 to 2010, the percentage of people under the age of 18 years increased from 17.7% to 18.2%, which is a gain of approximately 150 children. Regarding educational attainment for adults aged 25 and over, 78.0% of the population had a bachelor s degree or higher in the ACS as compared to 69.8% in 2000, indicating a well-educated population. Persons with graduate or professional degrees increased from 44.9% to 51.4% during this time period.

9 9 Table 2 Selected Demographic Characteristics of Princeton Race Origin White alone 80.1% 74.0% Black or African American alone 5.8% 5.6% American Indian and Alaska Native alone 0.2% 0.2% Asian alone 8.8% 13.9% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone 0.1% 0.1% Other Race alone 2.3% 3.1% Two or more Races 2.7% 3.2% Total 100.0% % 1 Hispanic Origin 6.1% 8.4% Place of Birth Foreign-Born 20.1% 24.7% Age Under % 18.2% % 67.7% 65 and over 12.5% 14.1% Educational Attainment Bachelor s degree or higher 69.8% 78.0% Graduate or professional degree 44.9% 51.4% Income Mean family income $168,867 $231,230 Percentage of persons in poverty under age % 5.2% Housing Units Total number 2 9,719 10,302 Occupied units 9,370 (96.4%) 9,521 (92.4%) Owner-occupied units 5,799 (61.9%) 5,739 (60.3%) Renter-occupied units 3,571 (38.1%) 3,782 (39.7%) Median value of an owner-occupied unit (approx.) $398,000 $660,000 Housing Type Total number 2 9,719 9,909 1-unit, attached or detached 7,136 (73.4%) 6,616 (66.8%) Two units 432 (4.4%) 682 (6.9%) Three or four units 677 (7.0%) 657 (6.6%) Five to nine units 453 (4.7%) 559 (5.6%) 10 to 19 units 346 (3.6%) 266 (2.7%) 20 or more units 675 (6.9%) 1,129 (11.4%) Mobile home, RV, Boat, Van, etc. 0 (0.0%) 0 (0.0%) Sources: American Community Survey ( ), United States Census (2000 and 2010) Notes: 1 Data may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding. 2 Total number differs in 2010 as Housing Units are a 100% population count while Housing Type data is taken from a sample.

10 10 Mean family income increased from $168,867 in 2000 to $231,230 in the ACS, indicating an affluent community. During this time period, the percentage of children under the age of 18 that are in poverty decreased from 5.4% to 5.2%. Regarding housing, there were approximately 10,302 housing units in Princeton in 2010, which is a gain of 583 housing units (+6.0%) from From 2000 to 2010, the occupancy rate decreased by 4.0 percentage points, which may be a function of the downturn in the housing market. Renter-occupied units accounted for 39.7% of the occupied units in Princeton in 2010, which is a gain of 1.6 percentage points from The high renter population is likely due to the presence of college students in the community. The approximate median home price of an owner-occupied unit in 2010 was $660,000, which is a significant increase from the value reported in 2000 ($398,000). With respect to housing type, two-thirds (66.8%) of the homes are one-unit, either attached or detached, which is a 6.6 percentage point decline from the 2000 Census. Homes consisting of twenty or more units, likely consisting of renters, are the second-largest home type and account for 11.4% of the housing stock, which is a 4.5 percentage point gain from If the renter population contains school-age children, a more mobile student population within the Princeton Public Schools may result. Since the Cohort-Survival Ratio method, which is used to project enrollments, depends upon stability within the student population, the forthcoming enrollment projections may be more susceptible to inaccuracies if the district has high mobility rates. District Overview The Princeton Public Schools has six schools that serve grades pre-kindergarten through twelve. The locations of each of the schools are shown in Figure 2. The district contains four elementary schools (grades K-5), one middle school (grades 6-8), and one high school (grades 9-12). In addition, students from Cranbury Township attend Princeton High School through a sending-receiving agreement. In this study, historical enrollments from through were obtained from the New Jersey Department of Education ( NJDOE ) website and the Princeton Public Schools and were used to project enrollment for five years into the future. Both historical and projected enrollments were analyzed at the school level. With the advent of NJ SMART, an online database created by the NJDOE to allow districts submission of data, the Fall Report was eliminated in the school year. In the past, the Fall Report was used by the NJDOE as a tool to uniformly compare school district enrollment data across the state. Unfortunately, the method of reporting special education students for NJ SMART is different, as these students are now referred to as ungraded. To maintain a level of consistency, ungraded student counts in the forthcoming tables were listed under the self-contained special education heading. Future enrollments were then projected using the Cohort-Survival Ratio method.

11 Figure 2 School Locations Princeton Public Schools 11

12 12 Explanation of the Cohort-Survival Ratio Method In 1930, Dublin and Lodka provided an explicit age breakdown, which enabled analysts to follow each cohort through its life stages and apply appropriate birth and death rates for each generation. A descendant of this process is the Cohort-Survival Ratio ( CSR ) method, which is the NJDOE-approved methodology to project public school enrollments. In this method, a survival ratio is computed for each grade progression, which essentially compares the number of students in a particular grade to the number of students in the previous grade during the previous year. The survival ratio indicates whether the enrollment is stable, increasing, or decreasing. A survival ratio of one indicates stable enrollment, less than one indicates declining enrollment, while greater than one indicates increasing enrollment. If, for example, a school district had 100 fourth graders and the next year had 95 fifth graders, the survival ratio would be The CSR method assumes that what happened in the past will also happen in the future. In essence, this method provides a linear projection of the population. The CSR method is most applicable for districts that have relatively stable increasing or decreasing trends without any major unpredictable fluctuations from year to year. In school districts encountering rapid growth not experienced historically (a change in the historical trend), the CSR method must be modified and supplemented with additional information. In this study, survival ratios were calculated using historical data at the individual school level from the last ten years for birth to kindergarten, kindergarten to first grade, first grade to second grade, etc. Due to the fluctuation in survival ratios from year to year, it is appropriate to calculate an average survival ratio, which is then used to calculate grade enrollments five years into the future.

13 13 Historical Enrollment Trends Historical enrollment data are shown for the Princeton Public Schools from through in Figure 3 and Table 3. Enrollment in the district as of October 2013 was 3,426 students, which represents a gain of students since the school year. Total enrollment has been within a relatively narrow band, ranging from a low of 3,275.5 in to a high of 3,426 in Table 4 shows computed grade-by-grade survival ratios from to In addition, the average, minimum, and maximum survival ratios are shown for the past ten years along with the five-year and six-year averages. The six-year average was used to project enrollment at the school level. The average survival ratios also indicate the net migration by grade, where values over reflect inward migration and values below reflect outward migration. Eight of the 13 average survival ratios in the six-year trend were above 1.000, indicating a general net inward migration of students into the district. Two average survival ratios that were below occurred at the high school. Figure 3 Historical Enrollment from to , , , ,358 3, , ,379 3,389 3, ,405 3,426 3,000.0 Number of Students 2, , , , Year

14 14 Table 3 Princeton Public Schools Historical Enrollments from to Year 1 PK K SE 2 PK-5 Total SE Total SE Total PK-12 Total , , , , , , , ,313 3, , , , , ,357 3, , ,406 3, , ,420 3, , ,322 3, , ,445 3, , ,471 3,426 Notes: 1 Data as provided by the New Jersey Department of Education ( and the Princeton Public Schools 2 Self-contained special education enrollment/ungraded Students at the elementary school level 3 Self-contained special education enrollment/ungraded Students at the middle school level 4 Self-contained special education enrollment/ungraded Students at the high school level

15 15 Table 4 Historical Survival Ratios from to Progression Years B-K K to to to to to to to to to Avg. 10-Year Ratios Maximum Ratio Minimum Ratio Avg. 5-Year Ratios Avg. 6-Year Ratios

16 16 Historical enrollments are also shown in Table 3 and Figure 4 by level (PK-5, 6-8, and 9-12), which represents the current configuration of the school district. Self-contained special education/ungraded students were incorporated into the totals by level. At the PK-5 level, enrollment peaked in with 1,445 students and has been generally declining since that time. Grade PK-5 enrollment in the district in was 1,268 students, which represents a loss of 127 students from the 1,395 students in the year. For grades 6-8, enrollment declined through before reversing trend. Since , enrollment has been increasing, peaking at 738 students in However, enrollment declined by 51 students in The enrollment in (687) is only slightly higher (25 students) than the enrollment in Finally, at the high school level, which contains grades 9-12, enrollment has been steadily increasing at the school. High school enrollment in was 1,471 students, which is a gain of students from the enrollment of 1, ,000 Figure 4 Historical Enrollment by Level from to ,800 1,600 1,400 1,395 1,445 1,394 1,400 1,357 1,406 1,420 1,322 1,445 1,471 Number of Students 1,200 1, ,313 1, , , ,335 1,314 1, ,253 1, , Gr. PK-5 Gr. 6-8 Gr Year

17 17 Figure 5 shows the annual change in enrollment. As the figure shows, there were increases in enrollment on six occasions and declines on three others. While enrollment changes exceeded 90 students three different times, most of the enrollment changes were minimal and did not exceed 40 students. 150 Figure 5 Annual PK-12 Enrollment Change Number of Students Year Princeton High School As shown in Table 4, Princeton High School s grade 8 to 9 ratio has been relatively high and has ranged from 1.33 to 1.78 in the last ten years. These values indicate a significant number of children entering the high school that were not in the district s 8 th grade. Some of the additional 9 th grade students can be attributed to the sending-receiving agreement that the district has with Cranbury Township ( Cranbury ), whereby Cranbury students in grades 9-12 attend Princeton High School. Princeton High School also receives a large number of students from Princeton Charter School (K-8). Table 5 below shows the historical number of Cranbury children attending Princeton High School and also the historical number of 8 th grade students at Cranbury School. With a few exceptions, the number of Cranbury 9 th graders has ranged from students per year since

18 18 Table 5 Cranbury Students Attending Princeton High School Year Total Notes: 1 Cranbury high school enrollment data was provided by the Princeton Public Schools 2 Shaded area is 8 th grade enrollment at the Cranbury School. With respect to Princeton Charter School, their enrollment is dictated by the number of seats available at each grade level. For the upper grades (3-8), enrollment varies between students per grade, as this is the cap on the number of children accepted into the school. It appears that most 8 th grade students from the school attend Princeton High School. In , 44 8 th grade students graduated from the school and 41 attended Princeton High School in Figure 6 below shows the source of the 9 th grade student population at Princeton High School in Students from John Witherspoon Middle School ( Witherspoon ) made up nearly 60% of the 9 th grade population at the high school. Approximately 17% come from Cranbury while an additional 11% come from the Princeton Charter School. 2.9% Figure 6 Princeton High School 9th Grade Sources % 11.2% 17.0% 8.8% 59.8% Cranbury Witherspoon M.S. Out of Country Out of District Out of State Princeton Charter School

19 19 Private, Parochial, and Charter School Enrollment In Table 6 below, the number of Princeton resident students attending private, parochial, or charter schools in the Princeton area is shown. From to , the number of Princeton students has been fairly stable, ranging from a low of 698 in to a high of 773 in There does not appear to be an increasing or decreasing trend in the number of Princeton students attending these schools. The greatest number of Princeton students attends the Princeton Charter School, which enrolls more than 300 Princeton students annually. Table 6 Private, Parochial, and Charter School Enrollment of Princeton Resident Students to School American Boy Chapin Cheder Menachem Friends French Am Hun Lawrenceville Lewis Noor Ul Iman Notre Dame Peddie Pennington Pennington Montessori Princeton Academy Princeton Day Princeton Jr Princeton Montessori Princeton Charter Rabbi Pesach Rutgers Prep Shalom Torah Solomon Schechter Stuart St. Augustine St. Paul Waldorf Wilberforce Yinghua International Total Source: Princeton Public Schools

20 20 Birth Data Birth data were needed to compute kindergarten enrollment, which was calculated as follows. Birth data, lagged five years behind their respective kindergarten classes, were used to calculate the survival ratio for each birth-to-kindergarten cohort. For instance, in 2008, there were 230 births in Princeton, which reflects the total from the former borough and township. Five years later (the school year), 182 children enrolled in kindergarten, which is equal to a survival ratio of from birth to kindergarten. Birth counts and birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios are displayed in Table 7. Values greater than indicate that some children are born outside of a community s boundaries and are attending kindergarten in the school district five years later, i.e. an inward migration of children into the district. This type of inward migration is typical in school districts with excellent reputations, because the appeal of a good school district draws families into the community. Inward migration is also seen in communities where there are a large number of new housing starts, with families moving into the community having children of age to attend kindergarten. Birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios that are below indicate that a number of children born within a community are not attending kindergarten in the school district five years later. This is common in communities where a high proportion of children attend private, parochial, or out-of-district special education facilities, or where there is a net migration of families moving out of the community. It is also common in school districts that have a half-day kindergarten program, where parents choose to send their child to a private full-day kindergarten for the first year. With the exception of one year, birthto-kindergarten survival ratios have been consistently below in the district, which is likely due to the large number of local private schools and the Princeton Charter School. Survival ratios have been inconsistent, ranging from to Table 7 Birth Rates and Historical Birth-to-Kindergarten Survival Ratios in the Princeton Public Schools Birth Year 1 Number of Births Number of Kindergarten Birth-to-Kindergarten Princeton 2 Students Five Years Later Survival Ratio N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Notes: 1 Birth data were provided by the New Jersey Center for Health Statistics for Reflects combined data of the former borough and township 3 Provisonal data from the New Jersey Center for Health Statistics

21 21 Geocoded birth data were provided by the New Jersey Center for Health Statistics ( NJCHS ) for by assigning geographic coordinates to a birth mother based on her street address. Birth counts for 2011 were provisional. As shown in Figure 7, birth rates have been fairly stable. With the exception of 2000 when 288 births occurred, births have ranged from 226 to 259 per year. Figure 7 Historical Birth Data from Number of Births Year Using mapping software, elementary school attendance area boundaries, and NJCHS birth data categorized by Census tract and block group for , the approximate number of births for each elementary school attendance area was determined and displayed in Table 8. Since the birth count is provisional for 2011, births by block group and tract were unavailable. Birth counts were greatest in the Community Park Elementary School ( Community Park ) attendance area. As the table shows, the address of the mother was unknown in some instances and was greatest in 2009 and For the purposes of projecting enrollment, the unknown births were redistributed into the four elementary areas using the proportions of each school with respect to the elementary PK-5 subtotal in

22 22 Table 8 Births by Elementary School Attendance Area from in the Princeton Public Schools Birth Year Community Park Johnson Park Littlebrook Riverside Unknown In addition, the total number of births by census tract from is shown in Figure 8. Census tracts are relatively small geographical areas created by the Census Bureau for collecting data at a smaller geography than the municipal level. Tracts usually have between 2,500-8,000 persons and are designed to be homogeneous with respect to population characteristics, economic status, and living conditions. The geographic size of census tracts varies widely depending on the density of settlement. As the figure shows, the greatest number of births, shown by the area shaded red, occurred in the census tracts corresponding with the northern section of the former borough, and roughly coinciding with the Community Park attendance area, and to a lesser extent, the Littlebrook Elementary School ( Littlebrook ) attendance area. Figure 9 shows the total number of births by census block from Census blocks are the smallest geographic unit in which data are collected by the Census Bureau. Blocks are typically bound by streets, roads, or bodies of water. This map provides greater detail of where most of the births have occurred. In 2010, the Census Bureau changed the block boundaries within Princeton, which prevented the inclusion of the 2010 birth data with the data which were mapped based on the 2000 Census block geographies. Areas shaded red in the figure had the largest number of births over this time period, which occurred in the northern section of Princeton, corresponding with the Community Park and Littlebrook attendance areas.

23 Figure 8 Princeton Total Number of Births by Census Tract

24 Figure 9 Princeton Total Number of Births by Census Block

25 25 Regarding fertility rates, Princeton s rates are lower than those of both Mercer County and the State of New Jersey, which is likely due to having a large number of college students. According to the ACS, the fertility rate of women aged 15 to 50 in Princeton was approximately 41 births per 1000 women. As reported by the NJCHS, the fertility rate was 58.9 births per 1,000 women (ages 15-49) in Mercer County and was 62.9 births per 1,000 women in New Jersey in Figures 10 and 11 show the age pyramids of males and females in Princeton from both the 2000 and 2010 Censuses. As the diagrams show, the largest number of individuals exists in the age group, which is due to the large college student population in Princeton. Some notable differences in the diagrams are that the percentages of persons in their thirties have declined in 2010, while the percentages of persons in their fifties have increased from Figure 10 Population Pyramid of Princeton 2000 Census Females Males Age Classes Under 5 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% Percent

26 26 Figure 11 Population Pyramid of Princeton 2010 Census Females Males Age Classes Under 5 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% Percent

27 27 Historical Enrollment by Race In Figure 12 below, total enrollment is shown by race for for the Princeton Public Schools. The races listed are White, Black, Asian, Hispanic, and Other, which is a combination of Native American, Hawaiian Native, and Two or More Races. These races were combined since there are so few children in these racial categories. As the chart shows, approximately two-thirds of the student population was White in The second-largest race was Asians, accounting for nearly 15% of the student population. Figure 12 Princeton Public Schools Enrollment by Race % 0.4% 10.0% 7.9% 67.1% White Black Hispanic Asian Other

28 28 In , Whites are still the majority race at 61.3% as shown in Figure 13. However, the percentage of Whites has declined by 5.8 percentage points since , indicating a more racially diverse population. Asians made up a larger share of the population in , 18.3%, which is a gain of 3.7 percentage points from While the percentage of Hispanics has stayed nearly the same, the percentage of Blacks has declined. The percentage of students classified as Other increased by 3.2 percentage points. Most of the students in the Other category identified their race as Two or More. Figure 13 Princeton Public Schools Enrollment by Race % 3.6% 10.2% 6.5% 61.3% White Black Hispanic Asian Other

29 29 In Table 9, enrollment by race is displayed for for each of the schools in the district. At the elementary school level, the percentage of Whites ranged from a low of 60.2% at Community Park to a high of 70.7% at Littlebrook. The percentage of Blacks ranged from 6-7% in three of the four elementary schools, with the exception being Littlebrook (10.3%). Community Park had the largest concentration of Hispanics at 20.5%. The percentage of Asians ranged from 12-13% in three of the elementary schools, with the exception being Littlebrook (15.7%). Hispanics were the second-largest race in three elementary schools, with the lone exception being Littlebrook. At Witherspoon Middle School and Princeton High School, the racial percentages mirrored those of the district due to the large number of students in each school. Whites were the majority race and Asians were the second-largest race in each of these schools. Community Park Johnson Park Littlebrook Riverside John Witherspoon M.S. Princeton H.S. Total Table 9 Enrollment by Race and School for White Black Hispanic Asian Other Total % 5.5% 20.5% 12.5% 1.2% 100.0% % 6.6% 13.0% 12.4% 0.3% 100.0% % 10.3% 3.1% 15.7% 0.3% 100.0% % 6.8% 14.8% 11.9% 1.0% 100.0% % 9.1% 9.7% 14.6% 0.9% 100.0% , % 7.9% 7.4% 16.0% % 2, , % 7.9% 10.0% 14.6% 0.4% 100.0% Source: New Jersey Department of Education ( In Table 10, enrollment by race is displayed for for each of the schools in the district. At the elementary school level, the percentage of Whites ranged from a low of 50.4% at Johnson Park Elementary School ( Johnson Park ) to a high of 64.8% at Littlebrook. The percentage of Whites has declined at Johnson Park by 17.3 percentage points since Small percentage point declines in the White population have also occurred at Littlebrook and Riverside Elementary School ( Riverside ). However, Community Park had a 2.1 percentage point increase in the White population. The percentage of Blacks is fairly stable, ranging between 5-8% in the four elementary schools. The largest change was a 4.4 percentage point decline in the Black population at Littlebrook. Johnson Park had the largest concentration of

30 30 Hispanics at 21.2%. Hispanics continue to be the second-largest race in three of the four elementary schools, with the lone exception being Littlebrook. The largest change in the Hispanic population occurred at Johnson Park, which increased by 8.2 percentage points. The percentage of Asians ranged from 10-17% and is highest in Johnson Park. The largest change in the Asian population occurred at Johnson Park, which increased by 4.5 percentage points. All schools had substantial percentage point gains in the Other race category. At Witherspoon, Whites declined by 4.4 percentage points while Asians increased by 4.8 percentage points. Small percentage point declines occurred in the Black and Hispanic student populations. At Princeton High School, Whites declined by 5.9 percentage points while Asians increased by 5.8 percentage points. The percentage of Hispanics was nearly unchanged while a small percentage point decline occurred in the Black student population. For all of the schools, the percentage point increases or decreases were affected by the number of students choosing 2 or More Races as compared to five years ago. It is not clear whether there is truly a large increase in this subgroup, or whether students in elected to choose a single race that they most identified with. Community Park Johnson Park Littlebrook Riverside John Witherspoon M.S. Princeton H.S. Total Source: Princeton Public Schools Table 10 Enrollment by Race and School for White Black Hispanic Asian Other Total % 5.3% 17.0% 10.3% 5.0% 100.0% % 6.3% 21.2% 16.9% 5.2% 100.0% % 5.9% 5.0% 15.2% 9.1% 100.0% % 8.3% 15.1% 10.8% 3.6% 100.0% % 7.9% 8.4% 19.4% 2.9% 100.0% , % 6.1% 7.3% 21.8% 2.1% 100.0% 2, , % 6.5% 10.2% 18.3% 3.6% 100.0%

31 31 Free or Reduced Lunch As a proxy for measuring poverty in the school district, counts of students who received free or reduced lunch were compiled from through Figure 14 below partitions the district s total number of students receiving free or reduced lunch by school for Approximately 28% of the district s free or reduced lunch population attended Princeton High School while another 23% attended Witherspoon. At the elementary level, Community Park had the greatest percentage (17.2%) of the district s free or reduced lunch population. Figure 14 Free or Reduced Lunch by School % 17.2% 14.2% 23.3% 8.4% 9.0% Community Park Johnson Park Littlebrook Riverside Witherspoon M.S. Princeton H.S.

32 32 Figure 15 below partitions the district s total number of students receiving free or reduced lunch by school for Nearly one-third (31.3%) of the district s free or reduced lunch population attends Princeton High School while the second-largest percentage attends Johnson Park (20.9%). In , a greater percentage of free or reduced lunch students attend Princeton High School, Johnson Park, and Riverside while smaller percentages attend Witherspoon, Community Park, and Littlebrook as compared to Figure 15 Princeton Public Schools Free & Reduced Lunch by School % 12.2% 20.9% 15.6% 7.9% 12.0% Community Park Johnson Park Littlebrook Riverside Witherspoon M.S. Princeton H.S. The total number of students who received free or reduced lunch was compiled by school from through and is shown in Table 11. The percentage of students receiving free or reduced lunch with respect to the total student population at each school is shown for and for comparison purposes. The table also shows the overall percentage of students receiving free or reduced lunch with respect to the district s total enrollment and the change in the number over this time period for each school. At the district level, the number and percent of students receiving free or reduced lunch has been increasing. Whereas 344 students (10.2%) received free or reduced lunch in the school district in , the number increased to (12.2%) in