Section 1: Intro to Crime Analysis. Monday, October 17, 11

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1 Section 1: Intro to Crime Analysis

2 What is it and Why use it? Math and advanced analysis to solve crimes? Crime mapping and COMSTAT to analyze crime? Criminal profilers solving serial crimes?

3 What is it and Why use it? Crime Analysis A set of systematic, analytical processes directed at providing timely and pertinent information relative to crime patterns and trend correlations to assist the operational and administrative personnel in planning the deployment of resources for the prevention and suppression of criminal activities, aiding the investigative process, and increasing apprehensions and the clearance of cases. Crime Analysis supports a number of department functions including * Patrol deployment * Special operations * Tactical units * Investigations * Planning and research * Crime prevention * Administrative services (budgeting and program planning)

4 What is it and Why use it? Why Use Crime Analysis? Law enforcements ability to function properly and maintain publicly acceptable levels of crime depends on a sound understanding of the: patterns, distributions, and spatial and social aspects of crime within a jurisdiction. This understanding of distributions and patterns of crime is all the more important with recent movements towards information led policing. Intelligence led policing, POP, Compstat

5 Current Levels of Crime Analysis How many agencies are doing Crime Analysis within the U.S.? No one knows for sure Currently there are over 16,500 law enforcement agencies within the U.S. This includes State, Local, County, and Special agencies To some degree all of them are involved in Crime Analysis as it was defined earlier. In terms of doing advanced crime analysis there are approximately 1,000 agencies that claim to be doing more than perfunctory analysis according to the I.A.C.A. Probably on the order of around agencies conduct advanced analysis that is used in a proactive and continuous basis.

6 History of Crime Analysis When and where did crime analysis start? England in the mid 1800 s Scotland Yard was the first agency to conduct crime analysis for the use in administrative and tactical assistance. Robert Peel maintained that proper statistics were an important aspect of sound policing Influenced by Sherlock Holmes Focused mostly on basic crime statistics for the agency and attempts to keep sound records. Some tactical analysis, but mostly only in major cases that attracted media attention, and then only very basic nonscientific analysis.

7 History of Crime Analysis United States Development First started in Berkeley California by August Vollmer Heavily influenced by England and the technique of systematic classification of known offender M.O.s Focus of Early Analysis 1. Calls for service 2. Beat analysis 3. Pin maps and spatial analysis (very rudimentary)

8 History of Crime Analysis O.W.Wilson and Advancing Crime Analysis O.W. Wilson expanded on Vollmer s beat analysis system to make crime analysis more scientific and advanced in both its calculations and use. Hazard Formulas: Assignment of weighting factors to various categories of crimes and service calls. Allowed for more focused patrol resources Systematic Allocation: Created a system for systematically allocating police resources based on levels of crime, disorder, and fear. Coined term Crime Analysis: First to publish the term crime analysis in his widely read text Police Administration

9 History of Crime Analysis 1960 s to 1980 s Crime Analysis really started to take off in the 1960 s after O.W. Wilson s writings. Influence of Law Enforcement Assistance Administration (L.E.A.A) By the end of the 1960 s most of the nations larger police agencies were using crime analysis units on a regular basis LEAA published a series of manuals on crime analysis between Crime Analysis was an integral part of the LEAA s Integrated Criminal Apprehension Program (ICAP). Many Crime Analysis units were known as ICAP units When the LEAA lost its funding in 1982, Crime Analysis entered a sort of dark ages

10 History of Crime Analysis 1990 s to 2000 s Crime Analysis languished until the 1990 s when its growth took off dramatically publication of Problem Oriented Policing book by Goldstein. 2. Formation of International Association of Crime Analysts (IACA) in Certificate program in Crime Analysis started by the California Department of Justice in New and Plentiful funding from the National Institute of Justice. 5. Powerful and affordable computers, GIS software, and relational database software. 6. Development of Compstat by NYC police. Compstat relies heavily on analysis and mapping of crime data. 7. Founding of NIJ MAPS office in 1997: Now basically dead. 8. Founding of NLECTC CMAP program: Now basically dead

11 2000 s to Present History of Crime Analysis More than any other decade since the 1960 s, the decade of the 2000 s has been very difficult for crime analysis 1. September 11th: Led to a shift in funding and focus away from analysis and towards Terrorism/Homeland Security Increased focus on Intelligence analysis away from crime analysis 2. Recession: Has hit agencies very hard, reducing budgets further and making training and advancement for existing analysts difficult, and the development of new CAU s almost stop completely. In some agencies there has been a renewed focus on analysis as a way to improve efficiency, but this is rare. England and other countries have seen tremendous growth in Crime Analysis as more countries begin to focus on Intelligence led policing. Intelligence Led policing places a great emphasis on crime analysis.

12 What is it and Why use it? Crime Analysts Crime analysts provide information to police agencies about crime, disorder, calls for service, police activity, and other areas of police interest that help police do their jobs better. Specifically, analysts help police agencies: * Solve crimes; * Develop effective strategies and tactics to prevent future crimes; * Find and apprehend offenders; * Prosecute and convict offenders; * Optimize internal operations; * Prioritize patrol and investigations; * Detect and solve chronic problems; * Plan for, and allocate, future resource needs for an agency

13 What Analysts do and How they do it

14 What they do Within Policing there are numerous different types of analysts that specialize in different areas and focus on different products. Increased tension between these different groups over the last decade. 1. Crime Analysts 2. Criminal Intelligence Analysts 3. Criminal Investigative Analysts

15 Criminal Intelligence Analyst What they Do: Concentrate on the collection and dissemination of information about criminals, particularly organizations and conspiracies. Focus is primarily on known offenders as well as identifying those associated with them. * Hunt for leads on the structure and hierarchy of criminal organizations; * Analyze the flow of money and goods; * Analyze relationships between criminals; * Analyze current activities and plans of criminals and groups; * Analyze personal information about criminals and those associated with them. Main goal is arrest and prosecution as well as intervention if possible.

16 Full scale analysis

17 Association Matrix

18 Link Chart

19 Temporal link analysis

20 Criminal Intelligence Analyst Traditionally, Intelligence analysts and crime analysts have been considered separate professions. IALEIA and IACA However, over the last 10 years they have been increasingly brought together because of 9/11 and budget issues. Some have begun to question whether their should be 2 different professions or whether they should roll into one. Skills, tools, analytical capability are very similar, but focus is often different. Biggest difference is often who the analyst is employed by, in that Intelligence analysts are more likely to be employed by State, National, or Special groups. Crime Analysts more likely to work for local agencies. ** There are some who want to never see them merge.

21 Criminal Investigative Analyst What they Do: Create psychological, behavioral and physical profiles of offenders based on the characteristics of the crimes they have committed. Popularly known as Profiling Time consuming process that requires advanced Education AND Training. Generally only applied in a limited type of crimes. Murder, Rape, Arson Crime analysts often use some investigative analysis techniques in tactical crime analysis situations. Geographic profiling and behavioral geography analysis are the most commonly used techniques

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25 Crime Analyst What they Do: In general there are 4 basic things that analysts do on a daily basis. While the amount of time spent on each are depends on the agency, these are the main duties that most analysts have. 1. Tactical Crime Analysis 2. Strategic Crime Analysis 3. Administrative Crime Analysis 4. Police Operations Analysis

26 Tactical Crime Analysis What is it: The daily identification and analysis of emerging or existing crime patterns, including series and hot spots. The goal of tactical analysis is to: 1. Identify emerging crime patterns as soon as possible. 2. Comprehensively analyze any patterns. 3. Notify the agency about the existence of patterns. 4. Work with the agency to develop the best tactics to address the patterns. **As a daily process, tactical analysis is usually a top priority for analysts. Generally the first thing they do each day

27 Tactical Crime Analysis How do they identify a pattern? DAILY review of ALL crime reports, cataloging them and comparing them with prior events. This used to be done on paper, but now is usually handled in databases and increasingly with sophisticated software. Linking crimes is THE most important part of tactical analysis What makes crimes similar enough to link? Analysts look for enough commonalities between past incidents and a present incident to suggest a pattern. Typically focus is on Who, What, When, Where, and How, with the more commonalities indicating a match.

28 Bair Software

29 Tactical Crime Analysis Once identified, analysts will create a bulletin about the series. Focuses on the basics of the series in order to provide actionable information to stop the crimes. In addition, the analyst may have to make a presentation to officers, detectives and administration Depending on the type of series and its size and involvement, analysts may also have to work with analysts in other jurisdictions

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32 Next event forecasting

33 Strategic Crime Analysis What is it: Focuses on long-term trends or chronic problems in crime and disorder. In contrast to tactical analysis, strategic analysis is a periodic rather than daily duty. This type of analysis generally takes longer and requires the analyst to collect some of their own data, as they can not solely rely on police reports. Main focus is on identifying trends, determining potential causes and working on solutions. Key is to identify a trend early in the process, as this leads to a better chance of reducing its impact.

34 Strategic Crime Analysis Trend: Long term increases and decreases in crime, or changes in characteristics of a crime over a period of time. Amount: Increases or decreases. Positive changes are emerging problems. Decreases are just as important as increases. Characteristics: Little change in amount, but change in how they are done or other characteristic. These types of trends are often harder to identify, but are very important. Identification doesn t always occur by analysts, many times it is done by officers and citizens.

35 Strategic Crime Analysis While police data are necessary for spotting the trend, they are generally inadequate for determining causes and creating solutions. Data requirements will depend on the trend type and can include : * Qualitative analysis * Quantitative analysis * Other government agency data * Surveys * Business data * Interviews

36 Forecasting Future Crime Occurrences General trend forecasting

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40 Administrative Crime Analysis What is it: Broad category of analysis including a wide range of administrative and statistical reports, research, and other projects not focused on the immediate or long term reduction of a crime trend or series. Often viewed as busy work, but it has gained a lot more respectability in the last few years Examples Include: * Report on demographic changes in a jurisdiction. * Preparation of UCR or NIBRS reports * Creation of charts and graphs to support the Chief s presentation to city council. * Creation of patrol deployment maps for a special event.

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42 Police Operations Analysis What is it: The study of a police department s policies and practices, including its allocation of personnel, money, equipment, and other resources and whether they have an impact on crime within a jurisdiction. In many ways this a classic evaluations research and thus requires a sound background in social science research methods. Often closely associated with strategic analysis, as many of the questions answered involve long term crime trends. Examples: * What is the best way to divide the city into beats * What is the optimal allocation of officers per shift * Can the agency justify a request for more officers

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44 Typical Analysis Products When it comes to crime analysis, information dissemination is essential, as finding a trend or series does not good if you can t communicate it effectively. These are the traditional products created by analysts: * In person briefings * Regular (daily, weekly) crime bulletins and reports; * Special (as needed) alerts, bulletins, and reports; * Monthly, quarterly, and annual reports; * updates;

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52 Crime Analyst Skills What skills are most essential to becoming a Crime Analyst? What are agencies looking for when they hire an analyst? This is a complicated question and different agencies may look for different things, but there is a standard set of traits that are essential for a good analyst. * Knowledge * Skills * Abilities

53 Essential Knowledge Areas Crime Analyst Skills 1. Knowledge about crime and criminal behavior: Need to understand how criminals behave in the real world and why they behave that way. They need to understand the nature of different crimes, including how and why they are committed. 2. Knowledge about policing and Police: Must understand how police behave in the real world, their mission, duties, schedules, tactics, strategies, and limitations.

54 Crime Analyst Skills Essential Knowledge Areas 3. Knowledge of local Jurisdiction: Need to understand where people live, work, play; how they travel around the city; the rhythms of the city and its neighborhoods; demographics, commerce, politics, and economics. 4. Knowledge about the Agency: Must understand how the agency functions, its traditions, styles, politics, etc.. **While some of this knowledge can be learned, other must be gained through experience.

55 Skills In order to become a certified Crime Analyst with the IACA, these are the following skill sets they require: * Knowledge of Criminal Behavior; * Ability to conduct temporal analysis; * Ability to conduct and interpret descriptive statistics; * Use Inferential statistics; * Conduct demographic analysis; * Ability to conduct spatial analysis; * Effective writing skills; * Ability to use spreadsheets effectively; * Ability to perform applied research; * Ability to evaluate qualitative information

56 Abilities These are a series of abilities that MOST agencies look for when hiring an analyst. * Exceptional Intelligence * Creative, inquisitive disposition * Computer proficiency * Experience with research and statistics * Strong writing and communication skills * Education in Criminology or Criminal Justice * Capability to get along with others in agency

57 Crime Analysis Certification While certification is a virtually essential requirement if an analyst wants to advance, it requires more than simply having knowledge. The requirements for an analyst to become certified are as follows: * The applicant must have at least three years of full-time experience as an analyst in the field of law enforcement, intelligence, corrections, or related fields, * The applicant must have earned a minimum of 100 points in combined work and educational experience. * The applicant must be a current member of the International Association of Crime Analysts, and * The applicant must submit an application and supporting documentation to the Certification Committee

58 Certification Scoring

59 Certification Scoring 56 Points with Degree 5 years experience to sit for exam

60 Major Issues in Crime Analysis As discussed earlier in this section, the last decade has been one of great challenges for crime analysis. Currently there are several challenges and opportunities facing crime analysis: * Budget, * Legitimacy * Data loads * Mobile Software * Predictive Policing

61 Major Issues in Crime Analysis Budget As decreased budgets have become the norm, crime analysts are increasingly coming under being seen as both a problem and solution. Problem Luxury and not a necessity Fire civilians to hire police How do they maintain levels of training and software Solution Handle more duties in addition to crime analysis Key aspect of working smarter; Intelligence led policing

62 Legitimacy Major Issues in Crime Analysis The VAST majority of crime analysts are NOT certified nor are they very highly trained. Many agencies don t completely trust their analysts because of these training issues Majority of analysts have basic training at most and can t afford to get training. CMAP classes are ending Budget issues No raises for certification IACA and others are attempting to help deal with these legitimacy issues through advocacy, etc..

63 Data Loads Major Issues in Crime Analysis We live an increasingly connected world, with increasing amounts of data. Video, official data, unofficial data, non-police data How do we determine the signal from the noise? Increasingly, software developers are creating systems that can navigate through the noise to find actionable data. Without these systems, analysts will increasingly fall behind as data increases. The biggest needs are in determining linked crimes in a series, emerging trends, and emerging hot spots

64 Major Issues in Crime Analysis Mobile Software Mobile software and computers are the future of policing. Officers are now capable of viewing reported crime data on their phones, ipads and other mobile devices. Future software will allow for real time data collection and geographic based alerts Systems such as this will replace mobile data terminals.

65 Mobile Platforms Google Translate Free on both Platforms. Contains most common languages and many uncommon.

66 Mobile Platforms Word Lens $9.99 for Spanish to English or English to Spanish translation. Real-time translation.

67 Mobile Platforms Google Goggles on both ios and Android. Analyzes pictures in near real time to determine their origin.

68 Mobile Platforms Crime Reports Free to use, good method for viewing data.

69 Mobile Platforms Moving from data viewing to data collection and analysis. Analyst suite of Apps: These apps focus more on relaying information to officers from analysts or on in field data collection. Grafitti Tracker P3i Cartographica mobile

70 Mobile Platforms 594 Graffiti TAGRS Law Enforcement only Service will help analyze graffiti Allows for collection and sharing of data between agencies.

71 Mobile Platforms Proactive Police Patrol Information (P3i). Developed in partnership with University Nebraska- Lincoln and Lincoln NE police. Funded by NIJ Grant.

72 Mobile Platforms Works on either Android or ios. Allows officers to view their location and offense and intelligence data around them. Officers can be tracked through secure connection.

73 Mobile Platforms

74 Cartographica Mobile Platforms Allows for data collection AND data viewing. Data stored locally or uploaded to server real-time. Points, Lines, Polygon, Ortho data, photos tagging Intelligent Addressing Completely customizable forms.

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77 Major Issues in Crime Analysis Predictive Policing New way of analyzing traditional police data along with nontraditional data to try and predict where crime will most likely occur. Not Pre-crime, but it does attempt to predict prospective hot spots based on real events, temporal patterns, demographic data, etc.. Neural Network analysis is one of the more popular methods being used. Similar to the systems that are used in stock market analysis to determine when to close the market for trading.

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