MANAGING PUBLIC DEBT AT A TIME OF SLOW GROWTH. Paulo Medas. International Monetary Fund
|
|
- Georgia Morgan
- 1 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 MANAGING PUBLIC DEBT AT A TIME OF SLOW GROWTH Paulo Medas International Monetary Fund
2 THE SIZE OF THE PROBLEM
3 Debt at historical highs amid modest growth Gross Debt-to-GDP Ratio and Real GDP Growth (Percent) GDP growth (all AE, RHS) GDP growth (Euro Area, RHS) Debt-to-GDP (all AE) Debt-to-GDP (Euro Area) Sources: Historical Public Debt Database, IMF Fiscal Monitor, IMF World Economic Outlook, and IMF staff calculations.
4 Why do we care about high debt? Impact on growth Vulnerability to shocks, market sentiment Ability to use countercyclical policy Risk of disruptive adjustment unable to pay for essential public services Hurt short term growth
5 1.5 The Impact of High Debt on Growth (by sector and indebtedness of other sectors, estimated coefficient) 1 over-indebted sector over-indebted sectors 3 over-indebted sectors Government Corporates Households Sources: Staff estimates.
6 WHAT MOVES THE DEBT RATIO?
7 Decomposition of debt changes points to fiscal effort Contribution to Annual Debt Ratio Reductions (Percent of GDP) ppt Mean -.3 ppt ppt - -. ppt Interquartile range -1.6 ppt +3. ppt -8 Structural primary balance Growth Inflation Interest expenditure Stock flow adjustment Total Sources:IMF World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff calculations.
8 but success shaped by economic conditions High Real Interest Rate percent of GDP ppt 8% -1. ppt High Growth -1. ppt. ppt.1 ppt. ppt percent of GDP ppt 7% -3. ppt Moderate Growth 8.1 ppt -.9 ppt 3. ppt 1. ppt Low Real Interest Rate percent of GDP ppt 3% Structural primary balance -.5 ppt 3. ppt -1.5 ppt.9 ppt Growth Inflation Stock flow Interest adjustment expenditure 3. ppt Debt ratio change percent of GDP ppt 31% Structural primary balance -1.7 ppt 3.1 ppt -1.3 ppt 1.1 ppt Growth Inflation Stock flow Interest adjustment expenditure 1.7 ppt Debt ratio change
9 PAST DEBT REDUCTIONS
10 6 major debt reductions since 198
11 Sustained effort + supportive external demand Median structural primary balance (5th to 75th percentile region shaded) 15 Median export value growth (5th to 75th percentile region shaded) percent of GDP percent t-5 t- t-3 t- t-1 t t+1 t+ t+3 t+ t+5 Median inflation (5th to 75th percentile region shaded) -5 6 t-5 t- t-3 t- t-1 t t+1 t+ t+3 t+ t+5 Median REER appreciation (5th to 75th percentile region shaded) percent percent - - t-5 t- t-3 t- t-1 t t+1 t+ t+3 t+ t+5-6 t-5 t- t-3 t- t-1 t t+1 t+ t+3 t+ t+5
12 Accommodative monetary policy + credibility effects 6 5 Median real GDP growth (5th to 75th percentile region shaded) 6 5 Median private consumption growth (5th to 75th percentile region shaded) percent 3 percent t-5 t- t-3 t- t-1 t t+1 t+ t+3 t+ t+5 t-5 t- t-3 t- t-1 t t+1 t+ t+3 t+ t+5 percent Median short term treasury bill rate (5th to 75th percentile region shaded) percent Median real long term interest rate (5th to 75th percentile region shaded) t-5 t- t-3 t- t-1 t t+1 t+ t+3 t+ t+5 t-5 t- t-3 t- t-1 t t+1 t+ t+3 t+ t+5
13 Some lessons from past experience Examples of successful debt reductions, even under adverse circumstances Current environment shifts much of the burden to fiscal policy Trade offs (where there is a choice) Well designed consolidation: targeted, gradual, within good medium term framework Monetary policy Structural reforms for growth
14 THE CASE OF SPAIN
15 Despite a significant fiscal effort 1 Fiscal Effort = Increase in Primary Structural Balance 8 Fiscal effort 6 Primary deficit (%GDP)
16 The deficit remains high and public debt is rising Public Sector Debt and Deficit, 1 1/ (% GDP) Fiscal balance FIN NDL SVN DEU AUT EA FRA IRL ITA PRT GRC ESP Debt
17 Context: High private leverage Corporate debt - Change between (NFC, percent of GDP) 1 Household Debt - change between 1995 and 7 (percent of disposable income) 8 6 Australia Canada Finland France Germany Italy Netherlands Portugal Spain UK US Sources: OECD - Netherlands Germany France Canada Italy US Finland Portugal Sweden UK Spain Sources: OECD
18 Context: Modest growth Growth Outlook for Euro Area (average GDP yearly growth, percent) Ireland Spain Euro Area France Germany Italy Sources: IMF staff estimates and projections
19 Context: Productivity growth has been low 5 3 Productivity growth has declined sharply over the last decades (Labor productivity=gdp per hour; yearly average %change) 5 TFP 3 3 Labor productivity has been lower and composition worse than international peers, (% change) Labor composition ICT Capital (per hour) Non-ICT capital (per hour) TFP Total 3 1 Labor productivity ITA ESP DNK DEU FRA NLD GBR USA FIN -1 Sources: INE; Eurostat; and IMF staff estimates. Source: OECD.
20 Fiscal Policy Fiscal consolidation needs to continue The structural adjustment path needs to find right balance between supporting the recovery and reducing fiscal deficit/debt over time. Important to ensure a high quality adjustment Should be pro jobs (e.g. reduce taxation on labor; active employment policies) Expenditure review continue to improve spending efficiency Room to increase tax collection (e.g. fight tax evasion; broaden tax bases; focus on indirect taxes)
21 Need continue a gradual consolidation 15 Debt-Creating Flows (in percent of GDP) projection Primary deficit Real GDP growth Real interest rate Exchange rate depreciation Other debt-creating flows Residual
22 Conclusions Spain has done a significant fiscal effort under difficult conditions Fiscal consolidation needs to continue to bring debt dynamics to a more sustainable path The pace and quality of consolidation needs to be growth/job friendly Should be done in conjunction with structural reforms for growth and jobs (productivity; structural unemployment)
23 References (work at IMF) Dealing with High Debt in an Era of Low growth (13) Reassessing the role and modalities of fiscal policy in advanced economies (13) Fiscal Monitor (several issues) The perils of private sector deleveraging in the Eurozone (13)
DEBT LEVELS AND FISCAL FRAMEWORKS. Christian Kastrop Director of Policy Studies Branch Economics Department
DEBT LEVELS AND FISCAL FRAMEWORKS Christian Kastrop Director of Policy Studies Branch Economics Department Introduction OECD average gross government debt increased from 73% of GDP in 2007 to 111% in 2013.
Stability in the Eurozone: Challenges and Solutions
Stability in the Eurozone: Challenges and Solutions Ludger Schuknecht Director General Economic and Fiscal Policy Strategy; International Economy and Finance IMFS Working Lunch, Frankfurt (Main), 15 July
Klicken Sie, um das Titelformat. zu bearbeiten. The Eurocrisis: new challenges for the EU s. economic policy. Thomas Westphal. 23th of February 2015
The Eurocrisis: new challenges for the EU s Klicken Sie, um das Titelformat economic policy zu bearbeiten Thomas Westphal Klicken Director Sie, General um das European Format Policy des Untertitel-Masters
VULNERABILITY OF SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS
VULNERABILITY OF SOCIAL INSTITUTIONS 2 December 2014 Paris Seminar in Demographic Economics Falilou FALL Senior Economist OECD Economics Department 1 Introduction and outline Social institutions and the
Spillover Effects of a Demand Boom in Northern Europe on Output and Employment in Southern Europe
Spillover Effects of a Demand Boom in Northern Europe on Output and Employment in Southern Europe Oliver Picek 1 Enno Schröder 2 1 The New School for Social Research 2 The New School for Social Research,
European perspective
Fiscal policy challenges from a European perspective Ludger Schuknecht Director General Economic and Fiscal Policy Strategy; International Economy and Finance Federal Ministry of Finance, Germany Banco
Transfer issues and directions for reform: Australian transfer policy in comparative perspective
Transfer issues and directions for reform: Australian transfer policy in comparative perspective Peter Whiteford, Social Policy Research Centre, University of New South Wales p.whiteford@unsw.edu.au 1
Government at a Glance 2015
Government at a Glance 2015 Size of public procurement Strategic public procurement E-procurement Central purchasing bodies 135 Size of public procurement Public procurement refers to the purchase by governments
Appendix. Appendix Figure 1: Trends in age-standardized cardiometabolic (CVD and diabetes) mortality by country.
Appendix Appendix Figure 1: Trends in age-standardized cardiometabolic (CVD and diabetes) mortality by country. Men Age standardized cardiometabolic death rate per 100,000 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 800
The Debt Challenge in Europe. Alan Ahearne and Guntram Wolff October 2011
The Debt Challenge in Europe Alan Ahearne and Guntram Wolff October 2011 Outline The challenge: debt overhang and price adjustment. Large increase in private debt prior to the crisis. Balance-sheet adjustments
Family policies and the on-going economic crisis
Family policies and the on-going economic crisis Leave Policies & Research Network meeting, Paris, 17 October 2013 Willem Adema Senior Economist, Social Policy Division, OECD Diverse trends in family outcomes
International Debt Deleveraging
International Debt Deleveraging Luca Fornaro CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra 12 th Macroeconomic Policy Research Workshop Budapest, September 213 1 Motivating facts: Household debt/gdp Household debt/gdp
July 2015. Figure 1. 1 The index is set to 100 in 2000. House prices are deflated by country CPIs in most cases.
July 2015 Globally, house prices continue a slow recovery. The Global House Price Index, an equally weighted average of real house prices in nearly 60 countries, inched up slowly during the past two years
Earnings related schemes: Design, options and experience. Edward Whitehouse
Earnings related schemes: Design, options and experience Edward Whitehouse World Bank core course Washington DC, March 2014 Objectives Primary objective: ensuring older people have a decent standard of
Saving New Zealand: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Barriers to Growth and Prosperity
Saving New Zealand: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Barriers to Growth and Prosperity Chart Pack 1 February 211 Savings Working Group Final Report Chart Pack 1 Net foreign liabilities Decades of foreign borrowing
Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland
Economic Outlook for Europe and Finland Finnish-British Chamber of Commerce 15 March 213 Seppo Honkapohja Member of the Board Bank of Finland 1 World economy: World industrial output improved, but international
Figure 1 Statutory corporate income tax rates
Figure 1 Statutory corporate income tax rates 7 6 1982 2001 5 4 3 2 1 Austria Belgium Canada Finland France UK Germany Greece Ireland Italy Japan Netherlands Notes: For countries using different tax rates,
Fiscal consolidation: the Greek case. Dionysios A. Lalountas Directorate of Macroeconomic Policy & Forecasts Ministry of Finance
Fiscal consolidation: the Greek case Dionysios A. Lalountas Directorate of Macroeconomic Policy & Forecasts Ministry of Finance 1 Structure of the presentation Macroeconomic developments before the sovereign
Dealing with High Debt in an Era of Low Growth
September 213 SDN/13/7 I M F S T A F F D I S C U S S I O N N O T E Dealing with High Debt in an Era of Low Growth S. Ali Abbas, Bernardin Akitoby, Jochen Andritzky Helge Berger, Takuji Komatsuzaki, Justin
Cross-country comparison of health care system efficiency
Cross-country comparison of health care system efficiency Isabelle Joumard, OECD, Economics Department IMF conference, June 21, 2011 Public Health Care Reforms: Challenges and Lessons for Advanced and
After 25 years of high unemployment. What have we learned?
After 25 years of high unemployment. What have we learned? Olivier Blanchard October 20, Barcelona Unemployment 2 How to reduce unemployment? Many strong opinions: eliminate labor market rigidities (list
Outlook for the Norwegian and the international economy. Governor Øystein Olsen Kristiansand, 8 November 2013
Outlook for the Norwegian and the international economy Governor Øystein Olsen Kristiansand, 8 November Outline International economy Norwegian economy Capital requirements and the interaction with monetary
Key Highlights on Italian Economy
Key Highlights on Italian Economy Incontro con l Ambasciatore Reinhard Schäfers e il prof. Roland Berger Franco Bassanini 25 Marzo 2014 Cassa depositi e prestiti Italian economy / Key highlights GDP is
Special Feature: Trends in personal income tax and employee social security contribution schedules
Special Feature: Trends in personal income tax and employee social security contribution schedules TAXING WAGES 211 OECD 212 27 1. Introduction Taxes on labour income including personal income taxes and
Portugal Programme Assessment
1 Portugal Programme Assessment European Commission, DG ECFIN 15 May, 2014 2 Root causes of Portugal's initial imbalances and need for assistance Macroeconomic imbalances Low GDP and productivity for more
Remarks at 5th SEEK Conference on Overcoming the Crisis: How to Foster Innovation and Entrepreneurship in a Diverging European Economy?
Remarks at 5th SEEK Conference on Overcoming the Crisis: How to Foster Innovation and Entrepreneurship in a Diverging European Economy? Peter Praet Member of the Executive Board 5 years ahead growth expectations
Sweden 2013 Article IV Consultation: Concluding Statement of the Mission Stockholm May 31, 2013
Sweden 2013 Article IV Consultation: Concluding Statement of the Mission Stockholm May 31, 2013 Sweden s economy performed well through the crisis, but growth has moderated recently 1. Growth has slowed
Fiscal consolidation targets, plans and measures
From: OECD Journal on Budgeting Access the journal at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/16812336 Fiscal consolidation targets, plans and measures Please cite this article as: OECD (2011), Fiscal consolidation:
The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 2013 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist
The global economy Banco de Portugal Lisbon, 24 September 213 Mr. Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Summary of presentation Global economy slowly exiting recession but
CPB Note. Ministry of Economic Affairs. Date: May 18th, 2015 Subject: Investment in the OECD: pre- and post-crisis developments
CPB Note To: Ministry of Economic Affairs Date: May 18th, 2015 Subject: Investment in the OECD: pre- and post-crisis developments CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Van Stolkweg 14 Postbus
Young SMEs, growth and job creation
Share in total employment/job creation/job destruction Young SMEs, growth and job creation New OECD work based on an innovative methodology using firm-level data demonstrates that, among small and medium-sized
Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Finland
CLOSING THE COVERAGE GAP. Robert Palacios, World Bank Pension Core Course March 2014
CLOSING THE COVERAGE GAP Robert Palacios, World Bank Pension Core Course March 2014 Different types of coverage gaps 2 In a subset of richer countries, the main kind of gap is related to adequacy rather
INCOME INEQUALITY AND GROWTH: THE ROLE OF TAXES AND TRANSFERS
Please cite this paper as: OECD 2012, Income inequality and growth: The role of taxes and transfers, OECD Economics Department Policy Notes, No. 9. January 2012. ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT POLICY NOTE No. 9
Finland and Sweden in a cross country comparison. What are the lessons?
Antti Suvanto Finland and Sweden in a cross country comparison. What are the lessons? Euroframe Conference Warsaw, 24 May2013 Outline Performance longer-term trends the recession experience Policy monetary
Tax Reform Trends in OECD Countries
OECD 50 TH ANNIVERSARY CHALLENGES IN DESIGNING COMPETITIVE TAX SYSTEMS Paris, 30 June 2011 Tax Reform Trends in OECD Countries 1. Introduction 1. Over the last two decades almost all OECD countries have
2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery?
2012: Deeper into crisis or the long road to recovery? Bart Van Craeynest Hoofdeconoom Petercam Bart.vancraeynest@petercam.be 1 2012: crises looking for answers Global slowdown No 2008-0909 rerun Crises
Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States
WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the
OECD Health Data 2012 U.S. health care system from an international perspective
OECD Health Data 2012 U.S. health care system from an international perspective Released on June 28, 2012 http://www.oecd.org/health/healthdata Why is the US health spending so high? 5 388 5 270 5 056
Fiscal sustainability, long-term interest rates and debt management
Fiscal sustainability, long-term interest rates and debt management Fabrizio Zampolli Bank for International Settlements Basel A presentation at the Dubrovnik Economic Conference 13-14 June 2013 The opinions
Has Austerity Worked in Spain?
December 215 Has Austerity Worked in Spain? By David Rosnick and Mark Weisbrot* Center for Economic and Policy Research 1611 Connecticut Ave. NW Suite 4 Washington, DC 29 tel: 22-293-538 fax: 22-588-1356
The paradox of redistribution revisited, or why targeting may matter less than we thought
The paradox of redistribution revisited, or why targeting may matter less than we thought Ive Marx, Lina Salanauskaite and Gerlinde Verbist 8 March 2013 Claim We aim to show that Korpi and Palme s highly
Chapter 2 Population, Economic Growth, and TFP in Developed Countries
Chapter 2 Population, Economic Growth, and TFP in Developed Countries Abstract In this chapter, we investigate the relationship between population size and economic growth using growth accounting and empirical
DIGITAL ECONOMY DATA HIGHLIGHTS
DIGITAL ECONOMY DATA HIGHLIGHTS TABLE OF CONTENT The ICT sector: value added, employment, exports and research... 3 Figure 1. Value added of ICT sector and sub-sectors, 213... 3 Figure 2. Employment in
Private Health insurance in the OECD
Private Health insurance in the OECD Benefits and costs for individuals and health systems Francesca Colombo, OECD AES, Madrid, 26-28 May 2003 http://www.oecd.org/health 1 Outline Background, method Overview
ECB Financial Stability Review
Vítor Constâncio ECB Financial Stability Review May 214 28 May 214 Press conference presentation Rubric Recent developments Measures of banking system stress have eased further as banking union preparations
Debt and (not much) deleveraging
Debt and (not much) deleveraging Peterson Institute for International Economics Susan Lund, McKinsey Global Institute Global debt has increased by $57 trillion since the crisis began with $25 trillion
2015 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; INFORMATIONAL ANNEX; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR FINLAND
November 15 FINLAND IMF Country Report No. 15/311 15 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; INFORMATIONAL ANNEX; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR FINLAND Under Article IV of the
2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013
2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%
2016 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION PRESS RELEASE AND STAFF REPORT
March 16 BELGIUM IMF Country Report No. 16/77 16 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION PRESS RELEASE AND STAFF REPORT Under Article IV of the IMF s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members,
ANTICIPATING POPULATION AGEING CHALLENGES AND RESPONSES. Peter Whiteford Social Policy Division, OECD www.oecd.org www.oecd.
ANTICIPATING POPULATION AGEING CHALLENGES AND RESPONSES Peter Whiteford Social Policy Division, OECD www.oecd.org www.oecd.org/els Outline z z z What is the OECD and what does it do? Anticipating the challenges
relating to household s disposable income. A Gini Coefficient of zero indicates
Gini Coefficient The Gini Coefficient is a measure of income inequality which is based on data relating to household s disposable income. A Gini Coefficient of zero indicates perfect income equality, whereas
Private Health insurance in the OECD
Private Health insurance in the OECD Benefits and costs for individuals and health systems Francesca Colombo, OECD AES, Madrid, 26-28 May 2004 http://www.oecd.org/health 1 Outline Q Background, method
The Norwegian economy
The Norwegian economy Slower speed ahead, but still growth Strong mechanisms support mainland economy Wriggle room to smooth business cycles Rune Bjerke CEO Just how bad is it? Slower speed ahead but still
EXTERNAL DEBT AND LIABILITIES OF INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES. Mark Rider. Research Discussion Paper 9405. November 1994. Economic Research Department
EXTERNAL DEBT AND LIABILITIES OF INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Mark Rider Research Discussion Paper 9405 November 1994 Economic Research Department Reserve Bank of Australia I would like to thank Sally Banguis
NATIONAL DEBT MANAGEMENT
NATIONAL DEBT MANAGEMENT ICPAK 18 TH AUGUST 2016 KISUMU 1 Public Debt Management Public debt management is the process of establishing and executing a strategy for managing the government's debt in order
What do we know about income inequality in NZ? (Bryan Perry, MSD) Income inequality: summary indicators
84 What do we know about income inequality in NZ? (Bryan Perry, MSD) Extracts from the 2013 Household Incomes Report, 16 July 2013 Income inequality: summary indicators Income inequality is about how dispersed
B Financial and Human Resources
Chapter B Financial and Human Resources Invested In Education Education at a Glance OECD 2011 203 chapter B Classification of al expenditure Educational expenditure in this chapter is classified through
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1. Size of GDP 2. GDP growth 3. GDP per capita 15 1. Size of GDP 1. Gross Size domestic of GDP product (GDP) is the standard measure of the value of final goods and services
MENTAL HEALTH AND WORK Policy challenges and policy developments in OECD countries
MENTAL HEALTH AND WORK Policy challenges and policy developments in OECD countries Shruti Singh, Labour Market Economist Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs Global Healthy Workplace Awards
UPDATE ON CURRENT MACRO ENVIRONMENT
1 Oct 213 Macro & Strategy Equity Credit Commodities 13 13 #1 Global Strategy #1 Multi Asset Research #3 Global Economics #2 Equity Quant #2 Index Analysis #3 SRI Research 12 sector teams in the Top 1
COMMISSION OPINION. of XXX. on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, XXX [ ](2013) XXX draft COMMISSION OPINION of XXX on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY EN EN COMMISSION OPINION of XXX on the Draft Budgetary Plan of ITALY GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS
FISCAL CONSOLIDATION: HOW MUCH IS NEEDED TO REDUCE DEBT TO A PRUDENT LEVEL?
Please cite this paper as: OECD (1), Fiscal Consolidation: How Much is Needed to Reduce Debt to a Prudent Level?, OECD Economics Department Policy Notes, No. 11, April. ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT POLICY NOTE
4 Distribution of Income, Earnings and Wealth
4 Distribution of Income, Earnings and Wealth Indicator 4.1 Indicator 4.2a Indicator 4.2b Indicator 4.3a Indicator 4.3b Indicator 4.4 Indicator 4.5a Indicator 4.5b Indicator 4.6 Indicator 4.7 Income per
RECENT TRENDS IN SME AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP FINANCE
RECENT TRENDS IN SME AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP FINANCE This chapter analyses trends in SME and entrepreneurship finance over 2007-2011, based on data collected for the country Scoreboards and information from
From Containment to Rationalization: Increasing Public Expenditure Efficiency in France
WP/16/7 From Containment to Rationalization: Increasing Public Expenditure Efficiency in France by Jean-Jacques Hallaert and Maximilien Queyranne IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the
2014 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION STAFF REPORT; STAFF SUPPLEMENT; PRESS RELEASE; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR SPAIN
July 214 SPAIN IMF Country Report No. 14/192 214 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION STAFF REPORT; STAFF SUPPLEMENT; PRESS RELEASE; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR SPAIN Under Article IV of the IMF s Articles
Chart I.1. Difference between Primary Surplus (PS) and Bond Yield Spreads in Selected EU 1 Countries
LIST OF CHARTS Chart I.1. Difference between Primary Surplus (PS) and Bond Yield Spreads in Selected EU 1 Countries Chart I.2. Gross Debt Stock and Budget Deficits of Selected Countries as of 2010 1 Chart
Per Jansson: Some aspects of the economic situation
Per Jansson: Some aspects of the economic situation Speech by Mr Per Jansson, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at Nordea, Stockholm, 3 March. * * * Today, I will talk about the assessment of the
11/6/2013. Chapter 16: Government Debt. The U.S. experience in recent years. The troubling long-term fiscal outlook
Chapter 1: Government Debt Indebtedness of the world s governments Country Gov Debt (% of GDP) Country Gov Debt (% of GDP) Japan 17 U.K. 9 Italy 11 Netherlands Greece 11 Norway Belgium 9 Sweden U.S.A.
Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 2012
Recent U.S. Economic Growth In Charts MAY 212 GROWTH SINCE 29 The Growth Story Since 29 Despite the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and a series of shocks in its aftermath, the economy
OECD Economic Surveys SPAIN
OECD Economic Surveys SPAIN SEPTEMBER 214 OVERVIEW OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: SPAIN OECD 214 2 This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,
Overcoming the Crisis
Overcoming the Crisis Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM Bank of Greece Athens, 10 July 2014 Reasons for the crisis The crisis was caused by a very specific mix of circumstances: Excessive deficit/debt
2013 2014e 2015f. www.economics.gov.nl.ca. Real GDP Growth (%)
The global economy recorded modest growth in 2014. Real GDP rose by 3.4%, however, economic performance varied by country and region (see table). Several regions turned in a lackluster performance. The
March 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1
March 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1 1 Euro area outlook: overview and key features The economic recovery in the euro area is expected to continue, albeit with less momentum
POST- CRISIS BUSINESS MODEL OF BANKS IN THE REGION
POST- CRISIS BUSINESS MODEL OF BANKS IN THE REGION Dr. György Surányi Resident Regional Head 16-17, November, 29 BEFORE THE CRISIS: A MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW 2 GDP GROWTH RATES WELL ABOVE THE EMU AVERAGE...
Low repo rate supports upturn in inflation. Governor Stefan Ingves Bank & Finans Outlook 18 March 2015
Low repo rate supports upturn in inflation Governor Stefan Ingves Bank & Finans Outlook 18 March 2015 Sweden - a small open economy in an uncertain world Large oil price fluctuations Negative interest
Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts
Estonia and the European Debt Crisis Juhan Parts Estonia has had a quick recovery from the recent recession and its economy is in better shape than before the crisis. It is now much leaner and significantly
2014 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION STAFF REPORT; PRESS RELEASE; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR FINLAND
May 214 FINLAND IMF Country Report No. 14/139 214 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION STAFF REPORT; PRESS RELEASE; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR FINLAND Under Article IV of the IMF s Articles of Agreement,
Portugal: restoring credibility and confidence
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS Portugal: restoring credibility and confidence London School of Economics and Political Science Vitor Gaspar February 1, 2012 MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 1 Outline 1. On the way to
EFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014
EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 Autumn 2013 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001
An Evaluation of the Possible
An Evaluation of the Possible Macroeconomic Impact of the Income Tax Reduction in Malta Article published in the Quarterly Review 2015:2, pp. 41-47 BOX 4: AN EVALUATION OF THE POSSIBLE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT
2. Higher education and basic research
2. Higher education and basic research DNK SWE CHE AUT EST FIN ISL CAN NLD AUS ISR CZE NOR PRT DEU BEL JPN FRA EU28 OECD GBR TUR USA KOR IRL NZL ITA ESP GRC SVK SVN POL ZAF HUN LUX CHN CHL MEX RUS Higher
The Japanese economy?
The Japanese economy? Franz Waldenberger Japan Center and Munich School of Management --University Munich LMU waldenberger@bwl.lmu.de 1 Outline 2 1. GDP economic recovery 2. GDP per head two lost decades
Overcoming the Debt Crisis and Securing Growth- Irreconcilable Challenges for the Euro-zone?
Franco-German Conference Overcoming the Debt Crisis and Securing Growth- Irreconcilable Challenges for the Euro-zone? Cinzia Alcidi, CEPS May 3, 2010, Paris Outline: General post crisis background Debt
Productivity slowdown: Comparative perspectives Euro area and Germany
Productivity slowdown: Comparative perspectives Euro area and Germany Marcel Fratzscher DIW Berlin and Humboldt University Berlin PIIE Workshop Washington DC, 16 November 2015 The crisis trap Financial/banking
An outlook on the Spanish economy Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), London
09.02.2016 An outlook on the Spanish economy Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), London Luis M. Linde Governor I would like to thank OMFIF and Mr. David Marsh for the invitation
Be prepared Four in-depth scenarios for the eurozone and for Switzerland
www.pwc.ch/swissfranc Be prepared Four in-depth scenarios for the eurozone and for Introduction The Swiss economy is cooling down and we are currently experiencing unprecedented levels of uncertainty in
Fiscal Consolidation The Need for Evidence-Based Decision Making
From: Government at a Glance 11 Access the complete publication at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/gov_glance-11-en Fiscal Consolidation The Need for Evidence-Based Decision Making Please cite this chapter
COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION 2014 DRAFT BUDGETARY PLANS OF THE EURO AREA: OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE BUDGETARY SITUATION AND PROSPECTS
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 15.11.2013 COM(2013) 900 final COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION 2014 DRAFT BUDGETARY PLANS OF THE EURO AREA: OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE BUDGETARY SITUATION AND PROSPECTS EN
New Monetary Policy Challenges
New Monetary Policy Challenges 63 Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 2013, 1, pp. 63-67 Received: 5 December 2012; accepted: 4 January 2013 UDC: 336.74 Alexey V. Ulyukaev * New Monetary Policy
Central Government Budget Bill for 2014
Central Government Budget Bill for 2014 September 30th 2013 1 Spain Macroeconomic Scenario Year on year % change 2012 2013 2014 Real GDP -1,6-1,3 0,7 Nominal GDP -1,7-0,3 2,1 Private Consumption -2,8-2,6
Job quality across OECD countries
HOW GOOD IS YOUR JOB? MEASURING AND ASSESSING JOB QUALITY What makes a good job? Job quality Most people spend a substantial amount of time at work, and work for a significant part of their life. The jobs
Finnish Economy: Outlook and Challenges. Governor Erkki Liikanen
Finnish Economy: Outlook and Challenges Governor The Finnish economy has faced a structural change and a cyclical downturn at the same time 2 Change in manufacturing value added since 2007 2 Electrical
GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES. Textbook, Chapter 26 [pg 317-328]
GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC OBJECTIVES AND POLICIES Textbook, Chapter 26 [pg 317-328] Name: Class: Learning outcomes: Identify government economic objectives. Explain the main stages of the business cycle. Explain
Consumer Over-indebtedness and Financial Vulnerability: Evidence from Credit Bureau Data
KDI International Conference on Household Debt from an International Perspective: Issues and Policy Directions Consumer Over-indebtedness and Financial Vulnerability: Evidence from Credit Bureau Data By
Adjusting to a Changing Economic World. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It s a pleasure to be with you here in Montréal today.
Remarks by David Dodge Governor of the Bank of Canada to the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec 11 February 2004 Adjusting to a Changing Economic World Good afternoon, ladies and
M C A S S E T M A N A G E M E N T H O L D I N G S, L L C
M C A S S E T M A N A G E M E N T H O L D I N G S, L L C 6 Landmark Square, Stamford, CT 06901 Phone (203) 487-6700 Fax: (203) 487-6720 A Global Economy that Sisyphus Would Understand 2013 AAAIM National
Economic Growth in the European Union 16 X 2013. Leszek Balcerowicz Lech Kalina Aleksander Łaszek Andrzej Rzońca
Economic Growth in the European Union 16 X 2013 Leszek Balcerowicz Lech Kalina Aleksander Łaszek Andrzej Rzońca Agenda 1. Overview: 1980-2012 2. Before the crisis:1980-2007 3. Crisis and aftermath: 2008-2013
Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services
For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives