High Speed Rail along the Ahmedabad- Mumbai corridor

Transcription

1 High Speed Rail along the Ahmedabad- Mumbai corridor Impacts on energy and emissions Sarbojit Pal High Speed Rail Seminar, Ahmedabad February 11, 2013

2 Growth in passenger transport sector in India Very fast growth in passenger transport activity (PKM) 10 times growth observed since ,060 BPKM 10,230 BPKM (1990) (2010) Growth drivers: population, economy, urbanization, motorization Source: Estimates by different Ministries and Planning Commission Estimates are on higher side as compared to many other estimates A handful of large urban centers are responsible for a major portion of this traffic growth

3 India s large urban agglomerations Delhi Jaipur Ghaziabad Lucknow Kanpur Patna Ahmedabad Vadodara Surat Mumbai Thane Pune Bangalore Map based on Census 2011 data Bhopal Indore Nagpur Hyderabad Chennai Kolkata > 10 million Already 8 urban centers have populations greater than 5 million people By 2030 At least 6 ten million plus cities 7 to 13 four million plus cities > 5 million Kochi Coimbatore Thrissur Large passenger mobility can be > 1 million seen between such large cities across Kochi the country

4 Originating passengers for the Railways Number of originating passengers > 2 million Top 40 passenger originating cities generate 51% of the total non-suburban traffic Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata alone generate 20% of the total traffic Kochi 1 to 2 million Map based on PRS data for period: 01-SEP-09 TO 31-AUG-10

5 Originating passengers for the Airlines Kochi Number of originating passengers > 1 million Top 10 passenger originating cities generate 78% of the total traffic Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore generate about 50% of the total traffic Map based on data from DGCA for year

6 Identifying urban passenger corridors Overlapping corridors HSR Corridors identified by ITPS-TERI Phase II study HSR Corridors identified by Ministry of Railways Kochi Map based on data from DGCA for year Number of originating passengers > 2 million rail 1 to 2 million rail > 1 million air Distinct heavy passenger use corridors emerge Corridors identified by the ITPS-TERI Phase II criterions overlap Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor feature across all studies

7 Thousands The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor MOST DEVELOPED REGION IN INDIA Corridor length: 491 km Runs through the most urbanized states in India Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Mumbai: most populous metropolitan areas in India Some of the highest per capita incomes Historically connected through trade, business and culture National, state and city level per capita incomes * India Gujarat Ahmedabad Vadodara Surat Maharashtra Mumbai *Source; City Skyline Indicus Report

8 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor NATURE OF TRAFFIC Corridor generated about 75 bpkm in Share of mobility along the corridor % 30% 10% 30% Air registered a 37% growth rate followed by road (6%) and rail (5%) along this corridor (CAGR: 2008/9-2010/11) Rail Air Bus Car

9 Billions The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor RAIL TRAFFIC 6.2 million passengers travelled on reserved rail categories in Growth of passenger kilometers on various classes (CAGR: 2008/9-2010/11) Higher % Middle % Traffic on railways (PKM) Higher Middle Lower Lower % Higher journey classes have higher leads (404km-373km-348km) Class types combined: Higher: 1A, 2A, EC; Middle: 3A, 3E, CC; Lower: SL, 2S Fastest end to end travel time on railways: 6h 25min

10 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor RAIL GLIMPSE AT PASSENGER PROFILES Conducted a primary face to face passenger survey on-board trains 73% of the respondents were in the ages between 21 and 40 years Largely in private services (44%) or self employed (25%) Highest share of total respondents in the income band of Rs ,000 Not disclose Above 1,00,000 50,000-1,00,000 25,000-50,000 10,000-25,000 Less than 10,000 No Income Shares of monthly incomes by class Higher Middle Lower 3% Age of respondents 50% 42% 40% 31% 30% 20% 15% 10% 4% 5% 3% 0% Over 60 Occupation of respondents 3% 5% 12% 8% Govt. Service Private Service Self Employed Unemployed 25% Student 44% Retired Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Primary surveys were conducted on day passenger superfast trains that started and terminated between Ahmedabad and Mumbai Central. Sample size: 1461

11 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor RAIL GLIMPSE AT PASSENGER PROFILES Purpose of travel by respondents Frequency of travel 19% 1% 12% 29% Business/Official Recreational 34% Daily Weekly Social Monthly 45% 4% Education Others 11% 42% Yearly Occasionally 3% 45% of the respondents were traveling for business or official purposes A large number of people were also traveling for social reasons Most of the respondents were traveling on a monthly basis (42%) and a large share occasionally (34%) Large share of rail passengers surveyed were making this journey on a monthly basis and most of them were traveling on work

12 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor ROAD TRAFFIC Car traffic ( ) An average of 38,419 people traveled on cars/vans/jeeps along the highways and expressways everyday NE 1 Vehicle occupancy of 3.42 persons * on the route Bus traffic ( ) About 8.5 million people traveled on intercity buses Car Average leads of different transport modes (km) 157 NH 8 Vadodara- Mumbai Exp. (planned) Bus 266 Air 434 Rail 360 * RITES: Total Transport System Study on Traffic Flows & Modal Costs (Highways, Railways, Airways & Coastal Shipping),

13 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor BUS TRAFFIC PASSENGER PROFILES Conducted face-to-face surveys at bus terminals across four cities Mostly young travelers - 55% respondents between 21 and 30 years Greater percentage of respondents were students as compared to the railways Respondents had on average, lower incomes than those on the railways Shares of monthly incomes 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Age of respondents 55% 26% 5% 8% 5% 2% Over 60 Occupation of repondents 3% 1% Or you don t want to disclose Above 1,00,000 50,000-1,00,000 25,000-50,000 10,000-25,000 Less than 10,000 No Income 3% 1% 5% 20% 34% 13% 25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 4% 14% 17% 13% 48% Govt. Service Private Service Self Employed Unemployed Student Retired Other Primary surveys were conducted at bus terminals in Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat and Mumbai. Sample size: 712

14 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor BUS TRAFFIC PASSENGER PROFILES Purpose of travel by respondents 11% 1% 18% Frequency of travel 5% 17% Business/Official Recreational 4% Daily Weekly 8% 63% Social Education Others 26% 47% Monthly Yearly Occasionally 63% of the respondents were traveling for business or official purposes Most of these respondents made trips along this corridor once a week 92% of them booked their tickets at the time of the journey High share of bus passengers surveyed along this corridor were young and booked their tickets at the time of journey

15 Millions The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor AIR TRAFFIC 1.76 mn passengers travelled by air in Mumbai-Ahmedabad accounts for 80% of the traffic Rapid growth of aviation passengers New airports in the anvil At this rate the mobility on air would exceed the mobility on medium classes of the railways by This growth of passenger traffic driven by growth in air and road traffic is % 1,400 1,200 1, % Share of originating air traffic % unsustainable in the long run 54% Growth of air and rail traffic Higher Middle Lower Air Ahmedabad Mumbai Vadodara Surat

16 National energy mix for transport is unsustainable 6 times increase in energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 expected 90% energy consumption by road transport sector Heavy dependence on petroleum products (95%) 80% energy demand will be met by diesel 3 times increase in CO 2 emissions from 2010 to 2050 expected Road and air transport - key contributors to CO emissions Source- TERI (2009) Source- TERI (2009)

17 Trends not sustainable from the perspective of energy security India imports almost 80% of its total crude oil requirements Import dependence expected to reach almost 90% by More than 20% of the domestic gas requirements are met through imports Domestic production and imports of crude oil Domestic production and imports of natural gas Source- TERI Source- MoPNG

18 Billions The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor ENERGY USE IN TRANSPORT Road traffic consumed almost 75% of the energy used Cars: 30% traffic -> 60% energy Air: 10% traffic -> 23% energy Rail, most efficient with 30% traffic and only 3% of the energy used Over 90% of the energy needs are being met by petroleum sources Share of energy use on different modes % 3% 23% 14% Growth of energy use on various modes (MJ) Car Bus Air Rail Rail Air Bus Car

19 Thousands The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT Road traffic 72% of the emissions Diesel use among cars causing large amount of emissions Air generating a disproportionate amount of the emissions Rail - 30% of the passenger traffic with only 9% of the emissions Share of CO 2 emission from different transport modes % 9% 19% 14% Growth of emissions on different transport modes (tco 2 ) Car Air Bus Rail Need to reduce energy consumption from transport sector Need to adopt alternative growth pathways for passenger transport sector Rail Air Bus Car

20 Passenger Kilometers (Billions) The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor BAU TRAFFIC GROWTH TRENDS Business as usual growth in passenger kilometers (2008/9 to 2035/36) Rail Air Bus Car Modal share of air to reach 23% ( ) from just 10% ( ) Largest share of the traffic would still be carried on roads (53%) Traffic share on cars would be retained at 30% of total traffic

21 Billions (MJ) Millions (kg CO 2 ) The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor BAU ENERGY AND EMISSIONS TRENDS BAU trends in energy use by different modes (MJ) Car Air Bus Rail 1,200 1, BAU trends in CO 2 emissions use by different modes (kg CO 2 ) Car Air Bus Rail The on-road traffic would be using 58% of the energy for transport along this corridor by By air would need 40% of the energy with only 23% of the mobility; Rail - 2% energy -> 25% of the mobility Rail would still generate the lowest amount of total emissions (6%). Road 59% Corridor trends of energy and emissions mirror national trends. Need to move more people to rail based mass transport systems.

22 A possible solution INTRODUCTION OF HSR Reduced energy use due to modal shift Energy efficiency: 8.5 times airplane 4 times car 3 times bus Reduction in carbon emissions CO 2 emissions (kg) per 100 PKM Airplane: 17 Car: 14 HSR: 4 Time savings Could act as catalyst for economic growth, facilitate regional development Source: UIC HSR Presentation by Jean-Pierre Loubinoux 2009 If introduced, with all its advantages, would people be willing to travel by HSR?

23 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor MODAL SHIFT TO HSR Air International experience show HSR passengers prefer to travel by HSR for journeys with travel time less than 3 hours Source: UIC-High Speed Presentation by Jean-Pierre LOUBINOUX 2009 About 80% of the passengers between Ahmedabad and Mumbai can be expected to shift to HSR

24 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor MODAL SHIFT TO HSR Rail Conducted primary surveys on board trains and on platforms to understand willingness of current passengers to shift to HSR if introduced About 98% passengers said that they would be willing to shift to HSR But smaller percentage were willing to pay for HSR services Willingness to shift and pay for HSR 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 99% 86% 29% Higher Middle Lower WTS (YES) WTS (NO) Primary surveys were conducted on day passenger superfast trains that started and terminated between Ahmedabad and Mumbai Central. Sample size: 1461

25 The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor MODAL SHIFT TO HSR Road Conducted primary surveys at bus terminals to understand willingness of current passengers to shift to HSR if introduced About 69% passengers traveling on luxury bus classes said they would shift to HSR and pay From the Japanese experience of the Shinkansen, about 15% of car users shifted to HSR 80% Share of respondents willing to shift and pay for HSR 69% 60% 40% 20% 19% 0% Luxury Bus Other Bus Based on these assumptions an alternate scenario was built to evaluate the impact of HSR along this corridor Primary surveys were conducted at intercity bus terminals in Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat and Mumbai. Sample size: 712

26 Passenger Kilometers (Billions) The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor TRAFFIC TRENDS WITH INTRODUCTION OF HSR 25 HSR Scenario growth in passenger kilometers HSR Air Rail Bus Car , assumed starting year for HSR operations - Large share of air and conventional rail passengers would shift by % of corridor traffic is seen to move on HSR within 15 years of operation About 40% of the passenger traffic would still move on roads (car: 25%, bus: 15%) in

27 Energy for transport (Billions MJ) The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor ENERGY TRENDS WITH INTRODUCTION OF HSR HSR scenario growth in energy use by different modes (MJ) HSR Car Air Bus Rail Savings in energy (MJ) Energy savings as compared to BAU This scenario results in an annual average savings of about 3.5 PJ over a 15 year period By , HSR services would carry about 46% of the total traffic by consuming only 16% of the energy Road transport would still continue to consume the largest share of energy

28 Millions The Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor EMISSIONS TRENDS WITH INTRODUCTION OF HSR 1,200 1, HSR scenario growth in CO 2 emissions use by different modes (kg) HSR Car Air Bus Rail Emissions savings Emissions reductions as compared to BAU A 10% reduction of emissions per annum over BAU Annual average emissions reduction of about 81,040 tco 2 over a 15 year period Impact on emissions due to HSR is dampened due to heavy coal based energy generation need to move towards non-fossil fuel energy sources

29 Summary High Speed Rail is definitely one of the solutions to meet the rapidly increasing demands for mobility along this corridor Large energy savings Man hours savings Increased safety Reduced total emissions New technologies for electricity generation should be explored to realize the complete benefits of HSR

30 THANK YOU