Project Risk Management

Transcription

1 Project Risk Management BSEN 691 October 28, 2014 Mark Krahn, Ph.D., PMP Revay & Associates Ltd. 1

2 Agenda Revay, my experience Overview of practice Risk concepts Tools/components Quantitative analysis (Monte Carlo) Revay-Meridian 2 2

3 Revay-Meridian 3 3

4 Revay-Meridian 4 4

5 Have you ever had one of these days? Revay-Meridian 5 5

6 Infinity Tower Project, Dubai Feb Revay-Meridian 6 6

7 Infinity Tower Project, Dubai Feb Revay-Meridian 7 7

8 Infinity Tower Project, Dubai Feb Revay-Meridian 8 8

9 Infinity Tower Project, Dubai Feb Revay-Meridian 9 9

10 Infinity Tower Project, Dubai Feb Revay-Meridian 10 10

11 About Revay 11

12 Risk Management Dispute Resolution Management Consulting Project Management Calgary (403) Montreal (514) Ottawa (613) Toronto (416) Vancouver (604) Wilmington (302)

13 RISK MANAGEMENT Risk Management services include: Preparation of Client Risk Management systems Project Risk Management Plans Risk Identification Risk Analysis Plan Risk Modeling and Schedule Risk Analysis Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis Risk Action Plans Risk Action Implementation Management Risk-based Cost and Time Contingency Management Probabilistic Cash Flow Analysis Decision Support 13 13

14 Revay-Meridian 14 14

15 Risk Experience 10 years with total project value over $85B Focus areas Oilsands - $35B Oil & Gas Facilities - $25B Mining / Precious Metals - $15B Pipelines - $10B Other Revay-Meridian 15 15

16 Sample Projects Fort Hills Oilsands Project NorthWest Upgrader Keystone XL Pipeline Tasiast Gold Project (Mauritania) Horizon Oilsands Project Bruce Nuclear Power Plant Sunrise SAGD RFSII Redwater Plant PIP IT/SAP Project West Block Parliament Hill Fort McMurray Airport 16 16

17 Project Risk Management in Practice Career Reporting Revay-Meridian 17 17

18 Context of Project Risk Management 18

19 Growing Interest in Risk Risk management is the fastest growing area of interest in project management (several sources) Project management is among the top 3 skills most desired by employers (other two are leadership and business analysis) (US News and World Report) 26% of executives believe having the ability to analyze value and risk is the most important skill in their arsenal (50 percent rated it as the first or second most important skill) (2010 Deloitte Survey) Revay-Meridian 19 19

20 Growing Interest in Risk (2) 97% of senior executives and risk professionals said that good risk management is an important source of competitive advantage 95% of executives agree that skills that comprise the project managers skill set (i.e. execution, project risk identification and mitigation, communication etc) are most needed in their organizations (2007 Economist Intelligence Unit Survey) Revay-Meridian 20 20

21 Enterprise / Project / Operations Context Revay-Meridian 21 21

22 Definition Risk = Uncertainty that matters wherein Uncertainty = Everything about which we are not certain Revay-Meridian 22 22

23 Why We Perform Risk Management Revay-Meridian 23 23

24 Why We Perform Risk Management Revay-Meridian 24 24

25 Benefits of Risk Management Revay-Meridian 25 25

26 Project Risk vs. Operational Risk Risk to the Project (Time and Cost) Resource Availability Equipment Availability Contractor Capacity Construction Safety Environmental Risk to the Quality (of Deliverable) Operational Safety Design (HAZOP) Start-up Performance Maintainability Compliance to Regulatory and Legal Risk to Operations Operational Safety - Procedure Reliability Regulatory and Legal Changes Revenue / Marketplace Changes Revay-Meridian 26 26

27 Risk Types Revay-Meridian 27 27

28 Risk Management Elements 28 28

29 Risk Management Elements 29 29

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31 Range Uncertainty Assessment 80/20 Rule Trigen Distribution Min = P10 Det = Likely Max = P

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33 Cost Estimate Uncertainty Tornado Charts 33 33

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35 Event Risk Framework (ISO 31000) Revay-Meridian 35 35

36 Event Risk Framework (PMI) 11.6 Monitor and Control Risks 11.1 Plan Risk Management 11.2 Identify Risks 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 11.5 Plan Risk Responses Monitoring & Controlling Processes Planning Processes Enter Phase / Start Project Initiating Processes Closing Processes Exit Phase / End Project Executing Processes Based on PMBOK Guide Figure 3-1 Revay-Meridian 36 36

37 Knowledge Area/Process Group Initiating (2) Planning (24) Executing (8) Monitoring & Controlling (11) Process Groups / Knowledge Areas Map 4.1 Develop 4. Project Integration Management 5. Project Scope Management 6. Project Time Management 7. Project Cost Management 8. Project Quality Management 9. Project Human Resource Management Project Charter 4.2 Develop Project Management Plan 4.3 Direct and Manage Project Work 5.1 Plan Scope Management 5.2 Collect Requirements 5.3 Define Scope 5.4 Create WBS 6.1 Plan Schedule Management 6.2 Define Activities 6.3 Sequence Activities 6.4 Estimate Activity Resources 6.5 Estimate Activity Durations 6.6 Develop Schedule 7.1 Plan Cost Management 7.2 Estimate Costs 7.3 Determine Budget 8.1 Plan Quality Management 8.2 Perform Quality Assurance 9.1 Plan Human Resource Management 9.2 Acquire Project Team 9.3 Develop Project Team 9.4 Manage Project Team 4.4 Monitor and Control Project Work 4.5 Perform Integrated Change Control 5.5 Validate Scope 5.6 Control Scope 6.7 Control Schedule 7.4 Control Costs 8.3 Control Quality Closing (2) 4.6 Close project or Phase 10. Project Communication Management 10.1 Plan Communications Management 10.2 Manage Communications 10.3 Control Communications 11. Project Risk Management 11.1 Plan Risk Management 11.2 Identify Risks 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 11.5 Plan Risk Responses 11.6 Control Risks 12. Project Procurement Management 12.1 Plan Procurement Management 12.2 Conduct Procurements 12.3 Control Procurements 12.4 Close Procurements 13. Project 37 Stakeholder Management 13.1 Identify Stakeholders 13.2 Plan Stakeholder Management 13.3 Manage Stakeholder Engagement 13.4 Control Stakeholder Engagement 37

38 Risk Breakdown Structure 38

39 Event Risk Qualitative/Quantitative Evaluation - Probability LEVEL VALUE PROBABILITY DESCRIPTION VH > 67% Very High Event is expected to occur H 33% to 67% High Event is likely to occur M 10% to 33% Moderate Event may reasonably occur L 1% to 10% Low Event is unlikely to happen VL < 1% Very Low Event is highly unlikely Event Risk Qualitative/Quantitative Evaluation Impact TYPE LEVEL PROJECT IMPACT SCHEDULE DELAY VERY HIGH Delay of more than 24 weeks HIGH Delay of 12 weeks to 24 weeks MODERATE Delay of 4 weeks to 12 weeks LOW Delay of 1 week to 4 weeks VERY LOW Delay of less than 1 week INVESTMENT OVERCOST VERY HIGH Cost increase of more than $100 million HIGH Cost increase of $50 million to $100 million MODERATE Cost increase of $10 million to $50 million LOW Cost increase of $1 million to $10 million VERY LOW Cost increase of less than $1 million 39 39

40 Event Risk Quantitative Evaluation - Scoring Probability and impact ratings are combined to give a criticality score for each risk. Relative importance of each risk shown to allow focus on the critical risks. Example risk scoring matrix: 40 40

41 Typical Risk Register 41 41

42 Risk Dashboard 42 42

43 Epistemic Uncertainty Analysis Entire Plan : Cost 100% $2,680,105,443 95% $2,603,581,429 90% $2,587,048,540 85% $2,576,303,611 80% $2,567,936,638 75% $2,560,000,410 70% $2,552,970,665 Hits % $2,546,815,798 60% $2,540,734,390 55% $2,534,728,949 50% $2,528,250,312 45% $2,522,211,410 40% $2,516,317,559 35% $2,509,718,656 Cumulative Frequency % $2,502,685,969 25% $2,495,491,963 20% $2,486,611, % $2,477,722,974 10% $2,465,784,282 5% $2,449,297, % $2,367,148,204 $2,400,000,000 $2,600,000,000 Distribution (start of interval) 43 43

44 Risk S Curve 80.0 Aleatoric Analysis (Post-mitigated) Entire Plan : Cost 100% $1,989,667,358 95% $1,435,966,686 90% $1,332,385,322 85% $1,264,318,208 80% $1,208,578,705 75% $1,158,922,440 70% $1,118,863,919 Hits % $1,080,550,846 60% $1,043,631,962 55% $1,008,051,166 50% $973,514,463 45% $938,430,892 40% $900,705,902 35% $864,519,571 Cumulative Frequency 30% $828,187,374 25% $787,702, % $741,248,499 15% $690,749,060 10% $628,137,206 5% $532,181, % $44,497,473 $1,000,000,000 Distribution (start of interval) 44 44

45 Combined Cost Risk Analysis 45 45

46 Aleatoric Analysis - Tornado Diagram 46 46

47 Common Top Project Risks Timely regulatory approvals (approvals, permits, new legislation), Contractor labour shortage and inexperience, Material / equipment sourcing and delivery, Scope definition and management of change and Project organization issues (teams, procedures and process, effectiveness). Revay-Meridian 47 47

48 Risk Management Elements Revay-Meridian 48 48

49 Monte Carlo Analysis Revay-Meridian 49 49

50 Determination of Contingency Revay-Meridian 50 50

51 If time. Weaknesses of Traditional Risk Management Schedule Risk Analysis Psychology of Risk Novel Quantitative Application Areas Revay-Meridian 51 51