Low pressure: high expectations

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1 Analysts report Low pressure: hgh expectatons Opportuntes and dynamcs n the MF/UF membrane market Executve summary Current status: weak market condtons The low pressure membrane market fell to a four-year low n, drven prmarly by the weakness n the desalnaton market. The value of ultrafltraton and mcrofltraton membranes for seawater pretreatment applcatons fell from around $3 mllon n 29 to $1 mllon n. Softenng of demand n the US muncpal sector has also had an mpact. Two factors are at work here: Muncpal demand for low pressure membranes n Chna has also been notceably weak snce 21, ths reflects the reducton n expendture on muncpal wastewater treatment followng the government stmulus package. Future outlook: ndustral and desalnaton led growth In, the market for MF/UF elements was $21 mllon. The market s expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of untl 218, reachng a value of by 218. The largest component of ths growth wll come from the recovery of the seawater desalnaton market from ts low. we expect the value of the seawater pretreatment market to top by 218. Global MF/UF membrane market by sector, and 218 permeate flow mllon m³/d Hstorcal Forecast Desalnaton Industral wastewater Industral water Utlty wastewater Utlty water Source:

2 Table of contents Executve summary Current status: weak market condtons Future outlook: ndustral and desalnaton led growth Global MF/UF membrane market by sector, and 218 Captal expendture forecast for MF/UF elements by regon, 218 Market dynamcs: no sgn of a shake out just yet Technology trends: ceramcs and standardsaton 1. Market overvew Regonal trends 1 Fgure 1.1 Estmated commssoned MF/UF volume by regon, Fgure 1.2 Estmated contracted volume of MF/UF membrane elements by regon, Fgure 1.3 Captal expendture forecast for MF/UF elements by regon, Trends n applcaton 4 Fgure 1.4 Estmated contracted volume of MF/UF membrane elements by sector, Fgure 1.5 Captal expendture forecast for MF/UF elements by sector, Muncpal water 5 Fgure 1.6 Estmated contracted volume of MF/UF membrane elements n the utlty water sector, Fgure 1.7 Captal expendture forecast for MF/UF membrane elements n the utlty water sector, Muncpal wastewater 7 Fgure 1.8 Estmated contracted volume of MF/UF membrane elements n the utlty wastewater sector, Fgure 1.9 Captal expendture forecast for MF/UF membrane elements n the utlty wastewater sector, Desalnaton 8 Fgure 1.1 Percentage of RO plants usng MF/UF pretreatment by onlne date and regon 9 Fgure 1.11 Estmated contracted volume of MF/UF membrane elements n the desalnaton sector, Fgure 1.12 Captal expendture forecast for MF/UF membrane elements n the desalnaton sector, MBR 11 Fgure 1.13 Commssoned volume of MF/UF membrane elements n membrane boreactor systems >1, m³/d 11 Fgure 1.14 Estmated contracted volume of MF/UF membrane elements n membrane boreactor systems 12 Fgure 1.15 Captal expendture for MF/UF membrane elements n membrane boreactor systems, Fgure 1.16 MBR system market share >1,m³/d Country trends 14 Fgure 1.17 Top 1 countres by nstalled MF/UF membrane capacty n plants >1, m³/d snce Chna Compettve landscape 15 Fgure 1.18 Estmated suppler share n the Chnese MF/UF membrane market for plants >1, m³/d USA Compettve dynamc 18 Fgure 2.1 MF/UF membrane market share for projects greater than 1, m³/d snce Fgure 2.2 Estmated company market share of MF/UF market snce Fgure 2.3 MF/UF membrane market share for projects greater than 1, m³/d snce 19 Fgure 2.4 MF/UF market share for projects >1, m³/d excludng North Amerca GE Evoqua (Semens) Pall/Asah Hyflux Pentar X-Flow Inge watertechnologes Koch Membrane Systems Dow Orgn Water Other players 23

3 Fgure 2.5 Leadng companes and ther products 24 Fgure 2.6 Varaton n prces of modules and skds 25 Fgure 2.7 Permeate flows for dfferent applcatons Larger modules 25 Fgure 2.8 Module szes for PVDF membranes wth outsde-n confguraton New technologes players to watch Mcrodyn-Nadr Anaerga QUA Industral markets Introducton Power Food & Beverage Ol & Gas Upstream Pretreatment for sulphate removal Coal seam gas Downstream Mnng 3 Fgure 3.1 Captal expendture forecast for MF/UF membrane elements n ndustral treatment systems, Fgure 3.2 Estmated contracted volume of MF/UF membrane elements n the ndustral wastewater sector 31 Fgure 3.3 Captal expendture forecast for MF/UF membrane elements n the ndustral wastewater sector 31 Fgure 3.4 Estmated contracted volume of MF/UF membrane elements n the ndustral water sector, Fgure 3.5 Captal expendture forecast for MF/UF membrane elements n the ndustral water sector, Ceramc membranes 33 Fgure 4.1 Advantages and dsadvantages of ceramc membranes n relaton to muncpal applcatons Other players 34 Acknowledgements 35 v

4 1. Market overvew Despte global fnancal headwnds, mcrofltraton and ultrafltraton (MF/UF) membranes reman one of the fastest growng water technology sectors. The market has wtnessed a CAGR of snce 25, and remans dverse, wth a number of companes playng globally. The market s beng drven by wastewater reuse n regons wth growng water scarcty n face of ncreasng urbansaton and ndustralsaton, as well as ncreasngly strngent regulatons on both water supply and wastewater dscharge. has collected a database of 1,1 nstallatons wth MF/UF capacty over 1,m³/d snce 25. We have assumed that ths covers about two-thrds of the market the proporton of nstalled capacty n plants greater than that of 1,m ³ /d dffers from company to company, but a reasonable average has been taken. To predct captal expendture on MF/UF membranes, we have assumed an average flux rate of 6 lmh and an average cost of $27/m² of membrane area. For membranes n membrane boreactor (MBR) systems, we have used a smlar cost but reduced the flux rate to 2 lmh. 1.1 Regonal trends The followng fgure shows how the MF/UF membrane market has been developng snce 25. There are contrastng stores for each regon. Intal growth n the market was observed n Fgure 1.1 Estmated commssoned MF/UF volume by regon, permeate flow mllon m³/d Hstorcal Forecast Amercas Asa Pacfc Regon (mllon m³/d) Amercas Asa Pacfc EMEA Total Source: EMEA 1

5 Fgure 1.12 Captal expendture forecast for MF/UF membrane elements n the desalnaton sector, 218 $ mllon EMEA Asa Pacfc Amercas Regon ($m) Amercas Asa Pacfc EMEA Total Source: MBR Membrane boreactor systems are one of the fastest growng technologes n the wastewater treatment market. The followng fgure shows the rse of MBR nstallatons wth partcular regard to projects above 1, m³/d. Fgure 1.13 Commssoned volume of MF/UF membrane elements n membrane boreactor systems >1, m³/d MBR capacty (mllon m 3 /d) Source: MBR capacty Snce 21, the total capacty of MBR systems has Snce 25 MBR s It s also a sgn that there s a shft from hstorcally smaller nstallatons n nche applcatons to larger projects, partcularly n the muncpal sector. The overarchng drver behnd the global growth of the MBR market s a steady decrease n prce and energy consumpton levels compared wth earler models sold n the 199s. Membrane costs have come down from around 11

6 2. Compettve dynamc The followng fgure dsplays the compettve dynamc of the market as a whole. There are three players wth a share of over of larger projects, whle of the market s shared between a number of smaller players. Companes wth less than of the market have been ncluded n ths bracket. Fgure 2.1 MF/UF membrane market share for projects greater than 1, m³/d snce 25 MF/UF membrane market share >1,m 3 /d snce 25 *Pe chart ncludes estmaton of Evoqua market share Source: As noted n the methodology, we have estmated the market share of companes as a whole based on fgures companes have gven us and data from company webstes. The dynamcs do not change a great deal, but we see that have more vsblty n larger projects, whle and make up some share wth ther number of smaller nstallatons. Fgure 2.2 Estmated company market share of MF/UF market snce 25 Source: Estmated company market share of MF/UF snce 25 Snce, for larger projects, we see a change n dynamc. Because of he data suggests that has been losng market share to, who have both been partcularly well placed to captalse on growth n the market. Ths pont s emphassed by lookng at Fgure 2.4, whch shows market share outsde of North Amerca. The man MF/UF membrane market players are dscussed n greater detal below. 18

7 Fgure 2.5 Leadng companes and ther products Company Membrane product System Membrane type Materal Confguraton GE Evoqua Source: Company data The followng chart demonstrates the sheer varaton n prces of The fgure for MBR skds does not nclude pumps or ppes. The prces for ceramc modules Nomnal pore sze (µ) 24

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