DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW

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1 DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW Q2 2016

2 DUBAI The vote for Britain's exit of the European Union (Brexit) is the compelling story for the quarter. It raises numerous questions regarding its potential impact on the Dubai real estate market. Dubai is the most open real estate market within the region and hence the most likely to be impacted by external factors. Data from the Dubai Land Department (DLD) suggests that British nationals are the thirdlargest investors in terms of nationality in the city s real estate. While some British investors are likely to be negatively impacted by the devaluation of the GBP following the Brexit vote, we believe the impact will be muted as a significant percentage of British investors work and reside in the UAE and therefore do not source their income in GBP. Given that sentiment plays a major part in determining the level of investment in all sectors of the Dubai real estate market, particularly across residential, we believe that many expatriates in Dubai arelikely to opt to continue renting their homes rather than switching to ownership. We wo uld therefore expect the sales sector to be more negatively impacted by reduced investor sentiment than the rental sector. Both the office and residential segments are positioned close to the bottom of the property cycle, suggesting that rents have bottomed out (office) or are close to the trough (residential). The timing of any subsequent market recovery may be delayed due to increased uncertainty resulting from the Brexit vote. DUBAI PRIME RENTAL CLOCK RENTAL GROWTH SLOWING RENTS FALLING RENTAL GROWTH SLOWING RENTS FALLING Q Q RENTAL GROWTH ACCELERATING RENTS BOTTOMING OUT RENTAL GROWTH ACCELERATING RENTS BOTTOMING OUT OFFICE RESIDENTIAL RETAIL HOTEL* * Hotel clock reflects the movement of RevPAR Note: The property clock is a graphical tool developed by JLL to illustrate where a market sits within its individual rental cycle. These positions are not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects. It is important to recognise that markets move at different speeds depending on their maturity, size and economic conditions. Markets will not always move in a clockwise direction, they might move backwards or remain at the same point in their cycle for extended periods. Source: JLL

3 DUBAI OFFICE SUPPLY The second quarter of 2016 saw the handover of only one office tower; Westbury Square in Business Bay, which added 30,000 sq m of office GLA, taking the total stock to 8.5 million sq m, broadly in line with the figure recorded during the first quarter. Our forecasts of future supply levels for 2017 / 2018 have been revised downwards over the quarter owing to a number of factors: (1) A number of projects which were scheduled for completion in 2017 have been delayed to 2018; (2) Al Duja Tower which was previously included as a mix-use building has now been confirmed as largely residential (with only one floor of office space) reducing potential 2017 office supply by 167K sq m (3) The handover of ICD Brookfield has been confirmed for Q Despite these changes, Dubai remains the largest and most active office market in MENA, and the preferred regional hub for many businesses. PERFORMANCE In terms of performance, demand for Central Business District (CBD), the area from the World Trade Centre roundabout to Downtown persists and this is evident given the relatively high rentals, currently averaging at around AED 1,922 per sq m and the low vacancy levels. Vacancy rates within the commercial office towers in the Central Business District (CBD) are showing a declining trend, which suggests that there could be a lack of good quality office space and therefore there has been a number of -to- projects and prelease agreements scheduled to be completed. HOT TOPIC Dubai Design District (d3); is becoming a more desirable destination. Asking rents in d3 have increased by approximately 40% over Q2 primarily due to the achievement of an occupancy milestone. Having attracted the headquarters of top retail names such as Chalhoub Group (and other tenants such as Coca Cola and Jumeirah Group) the bargaining power is now with the landlord (TECOM). The design industry in the region is expected to grow at an annual rate of 6% over the next 5 years which will result in more office demand for space in projects like d3 The same rental growth is not however being achieved across other locations with tenant incentives increasing as landlords seek to retain existing and attract new tenants These incentives include flexible lease terms, rent free periods and contributions to fit out costs. CURRENT SUPPLY (2013 Q2 2016) OFFICE SUPPLY FUTURE SUPPLY (H ) 257K 109K 84K 7.6M 7.8M 8.4M 8.5M 8.5M 8.7M 8.9M Q H CBD VACANCY RATE OFFICE PERFORMANCE GRADE A RENTS / PER SQ M 23% 16% Q Q ,880 AED Q % 1,920 AED Q OUTLOOK OUTLOOK / ANNUAL CHANGE

4 DUBAI RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY Around 1,500 villas for the Emirates staff were delivered in District 11 of the MBR City project in Q2 by Emirates Group. This marks the first project which has been delivered in this major development. A further 1,680 units were added across Dubai including both apartment and villa units, and taking the total stock to 462K units. PERFORMANCE The REIDIN general index for rents and sales remained largely unchanged over Q2, suggesting the residential market is currently at a cyclical trough, having softened by about 15% since its peak in mid While not significant in its own right, the negative perception and uncertainty resulting from Brexit may contribute to a delay in the market recovery. Providing there are no major external shocks over the rest of the year, we expect the Dubai residential market to recover in early HOT TOPIC Danube; from a building materials company to an affordable housing developer. Danube Properties launched its 418 unit Glamz residential project in Q2 2016, located in the Al Furjan area of Jebel Ali adjacent to its existing Starz project. Construction should commence in Q3 and is due for completion in September This takes portfolio to 1,700 units with an additional two projects expected to be launched before the end of the year. Dubai Land Department (DLD) introduces a new building classification system which aims to create a more transparent market (inline with the 2021 vision) by providing a complete database for every single unit in Dubai along with a star rating system. CURRENT SUPPLY (2013 Q2 2016) RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY FUTURE SUPPLY (H ) 27K UNITS 11K UNITS 23K UNITS 434K 448K 456K 462K 462K 485K 512K UNITS UNITS UNITS UNITS UNITS UNITS UNITS Q H RESIDENTIAL PERFORMANCE PROPERTY RENT AND SALES INDICES APARTMENTS SALES 0% RENTALS 1% VILLAS SALES 1% RENTALS -1% SALES -5% RENTALS -3% SALES -6% RENTALS -6% SOURCE: REIDIN SOURCE: REIDIN

5 DUBAI RETAIL SUPPLY Three new shopping malls were added over the quarter, a Community Centre in International City, Ibn Battuta Mall Phase II, and The Ribbon in Motor City. Collectively, they added almost 30,000sq m of GLA. The remainder of 2016 is expected to witness the delivery of further 150,000 sq m. Our supply pipeline for 2017 has been increased with construction having resumed on two projects, the Dubai Art Centre in Barsha and Sustainable City Mall, which increases the 2017 supply to 159,000 sq m. PERFORMANCE Commercial investors and occupiers are impacted by sentiment and confidence, but their attitude towards real estate in the MENA region is more likely to be driven by their own business and financial situation. Those companies whose business could be negatively impacted by Brexit could delay real estate commitments. Furthermore, the performance of retailers is largely correlated to the spending patterns of tourists coming into Dubai. With the devaluation of the British Pound, Dubai and the MENA region as a whole has become a more expensive destination. Therefore, a further decline in European visitors is expected in the foreseeable future. HOT TOPIC Inevitability of Value Added Tax (VAT) reduces sentiment. The reality of VAT being introduced in 2018 is setting a worrisome tone across the market. It will lead to higher inflation rates and reduce discretionary spending. Although food and other necessity goods may be exempted, this is likely to impact the sector as consumers become more cautious over their spending patterns. While negative for the retail sector, this new tax will be positive for the overall economy, marking a furtherdiversification of government revenue away from the oil sector. Another positive of the VAT will be greater transparency and the ability for mall owners to have greater visibility of sales patterns. The retail market is currently situated at the top of the real estate cycle, suggesting that we expect rents to continue dropping for the remainder of CURRENT SUPPLY (2013 Q2 2016) RETAIL SUPPLY FUTURE SUPPLY (H ) 144K 159K 46K 2.9M 3.0M 3.2M 3.4M 3.4M 3.5M 3.7M Q H VACANCY RATE RETAIL PERFORMANCE CHANGE IN AVERAGE RENTS 8% 8% 0% 0% 0% 3% Q Q PRIMARY SECONDARY OUTLOOK OUTLOOK / ANNUAL CHANGE

6 DUBAI HOTEL SUPPLY The second quarter of the year saw the opening of the landmark W Al Habtoor on the banks of the Dubai Canal, following its sister property St Regis in November Paired with other additions to the supply such as the Rove hotel Downtown & Wyndham Marina, this brought the Dubai supply to around 72,500 rooms. Several properties announced for 2016 can be expected to see their opening postponed to 2017 which is reflected in our adjusted pipeline shown below. Among the causes are delays in construction and funding and the overly ambitious timelines initially set by some developers. PERFORMANCE While occupancy rates remained flat compared to YT May 2015 data, average daily rates declined 13% to USD 217 which can be attributed partially to the increased competition in the market as well as the continuing strength of the US dollar. HOT TOPIC Mid-market hotels in Dubai stealing the show. With the 4% fall in the Euro so far in 2016 and more recent falls in the value of the British pound, Dubai has become an increasingly expensive travel destination for many European tourists. More GCC visitors are also opting to travel to Europe for vacations. This is creating challenging conditions for more luxury brands and increased demand for the midmarket segment. More operators and owners are now investing in midscale properties and several projects have been announced by brands such as Rove, Ibis, etc. This more comprehensive midscale offering is likely to enhance attraction to fast growing source markets in China and the Far East. While soften the decrease in occupancy rates, this trend will result in continued falls in city-wide average room rates. CURRENT SUPPLY (2013 Q2 2016) HOTEL SUPPLY FUTURE SUPPLY (H ) 15,200 KEYS 4,900 KEYS 12,300 KEYS 61,670 67,487 72,473 74,809 74,809 79,709 92,009 KEYS KEYS KEYS KEYS KEYS KEYS KEYS Q H OCCUPANCY RATE HOTEL PERFORMANCE AVERAGE DAILY RATE 83% 83% YT MAY 2015 YT MAY USD YT MAY % 217 USD YT MAY 2016 OUTLOOK OUTLOOK / ANNUAL CHANGE

7 DEFINITIONS AND METHODOLOGY 12 indicatesa turning point towards a market consolidation / slowdown. At this position, the market has no further rental growth potential left in the current cycle, with the next move likely to be downwards. 3 clock indicates the market has reached its point of fastest decline. While rents may continue to decline for some time, the rate of decrease is expected to slow as the market moves towards a period of rental stabilisation. 6 indicates a turning point towards rental growth. At this position, we believe the market has reached its lowest point and the next movement in rents is likely to be upwards. 9 indicates the market has reached the rental growth peak, while rents may continue to increase over coming quarters the market is heading towards a period of rental stabilisation. OFFICE Supply data is based on our quarterly survey of 32 sub-markets. Completed buildings refer to those handed ov er for immediate occupation. Future supply is based on projects under construction. Central Business District includ es DIFC, DTCD, Sheikh Zayed Road, Burj Khalifa Downtown. Prime Office Rent represents the top open-market net rent (exclusive of service charge) for a new lease that could be expected for a notional office unit of the highest quality and specification in the best locati on in a market, as at the survey date. Data relates to headline rents, exclusive of incentives. Vacancy rate is based on estimates from the JLL Agency team. It represents the average rate across a basket of buildings in the CBD that make up around 80% of the CBD supply and 15% of the total current supply. RETAIL Classification of Retail centres is based upon the ULI definiti on and based on their GLA: - Super Regional Malls have a GLA of above 90,000 sq m - Regional Malls have a GLA of 30,000-90,000 sq m - Community Malls have a GLA of 10,000-30,000 sq m - Neighborhood Malls have a GLA of 3,000-10,000 sq m - Convenience Malls have a GLA of less than 3,000 sq m Supply data is based on our quarterly survey of 45 sub-markets. RESIDENTIAL The supply and stock data has been u pdated b ased on d ata from the Dubai Gov ernment. Our quarterly survey now covers 158 sub markets (the entire Dubai market) starting from This data excludes labour accommodation and local Emirati housing supply. Completed buildings refer to those handed ov er for immediate occupation. Future supply is based on projects under construction. Residentia l performance data is b ased on the REIDIN monthly index. REIDIN Dubai Residential Property Price Indices (RPPIs) use monthly sample of offered/asked listing price data and land registry price data (trans- action data). Index series are set at 100 starting at the beginning of each data set. HOTEL Hotel room supply is based on existing supply figures provided by DTCM as well as future hotel development data tracked by JLL Hotels. Room supply inclu des al l grade d supp ly and exclud es serviced apartments. STR performance data is based on a monthly survey conducted by STR Global on a sample of more than 55,000 rooms across Dubai. Malls are categorized based on turnover levels. Primary Malls are good performing with high levels of turnover. Secondary Malls are average performing with lower levels of turnover. Average rents represent the top open market net rent expected for a standard in line unit shop of 100 s q m in a basket of regional and super regional centres. Given the variation in rentals, we quote % change for retail rents rather than actual figures. Vacancy rate is based on estimates from the JLL Retail team, and represents the average rate across standard in line unit shops at super regional malls.

8 Dubai Emaar Square Building 1, Office 403 Sheikh Zayed Road PO Box Dubai, UAE Tel: Fax: For questions and inquires about the Dubai real estate market, please contact: Dana Williamson Head of Agency MENA dana.williamson@eu.jll.com Craig Plumb Head of Research MENA craig.plumb@eu.jll.com Andrew Williamson Head of Retail MENA andrew.williamson@eu.jll.com Asma Dakkak Research Manager MENA youtube.com/joneslanglasalle linkedin.com/companies/jones-lang-lasalle joneslanglasalleblog.com/emearesearch Jll-mena.com 2016 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is proprietary to Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be used solely for the purposes of evaluating this proposal. All such documentation and information remains the property of Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be kept confidential. Reproduction of any part of this document is authorised only to the extent necessary for its evaluation. It is not to be shown to any third party without the prior written authorisation of Jones Lang LaSalle. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof.

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