GRADO OFICIAL EN PUBLICIDAD Y RELACIONES PÚBLICAS Y TÍTULO SUPERIOR EN MARKETING (GRPUB + TSMK)

Transcription

1 Academic Guide Subject: Sales Forecasting Course: 5th year Degree: GRADO OFICIAL EN PUBLICIDAD Y RELACIONES PÚBLICAS Y TÍTULO SUPERIOR EN MARKETING (GRPUB ) Academic Year 2014 /2015 Campus: Pozuelo (Madrid) Professors: Pablo J. López Tenorio Academic Period: Year: Type: Language 1st Semester PROPIA English Credits ECTS: 3 Classes per week: 2 Department of MARKETING MANAGEMENT last update: july 2014

2 ÍNDICE 1. FACULTY/PROFESSOR S CONTACT INFORMATION: GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE SUBJECT & COURSE CONTENT STATEMENT OF COURSE GOALS & LIST OF STUDENT LEARNING OUTCOMES COMPETENCES TRAINING STUDY PLAN... ERROR! MARCADOR NO DEFINIDO. 5.2 TEACHING METHODOLOGY. ERROR! MARCADOR NO DEFINIDO. 6. GRADING PROCEDURES INCLASS TESTS... ERROR! MARCADOR NO DEFINIDO. 6.2 COMPULSORY COURSE WORK ERROR! MARCADOR NO DEFINIDO. 6.3 PARTICIPATION... ERROR! MARCADOR NO DEFINIDO. 6.4 FINAL EXAM... ERROR! MARCADOR NO DEFINIDO. 7. COURSE PROGRAMME COURSE OUTLINE... ERROR! MARCADOR NO DEFINIDO. 7.2 COURSE CONTENT... ERROR! MARCADOR NO DEFINIDO. 1

3 8. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SKILLS, COURSE CONTENT AND GRADING PROCEDURES RECOMMENDED READING LIST ERROR! MARCADOR NO DEFINIDO. 9.1 SUPPORT MATERIAL: BASIC BIBLIOGRAPHY ERROR! MARCADOR NO DEFINIDO 9.2 SUPPLEMENTARY BIBLIOGRAPHY ERROR! MARCADOR NO DEFINIDO. 9.3 BIBLIOWEB... ERROR! MARCADOR NO DEFINIDO. 2

4 1. Faculty/Professor s Contact: Pablo J. López Tenorio: pablojose.lopez@esic.edu 2. General Description of the Subject & Course Content The subject aims to provide students a methodology to forecast the future sales of a company or product through qualitative and quantitative methods. 3. Statement of Course Goals & List of Student Learning Outcomes: Understand the importance of sales forecasting within a marketing plan. Know what factors to consider when making forecasts. Learning to make predictions with practical applications. 4. Competences: Transversal or generic skills: C.T. CT01 - Analysis and synthesis ability. CT02 - Organization and planning ability. CT03 - Oral and written skill in your native language. CT05 - Computer knowledge related to the study area. CT06 - Skill in analyzing, searching for, and differentiating information from different sources. CT07 - Schematization and extrapolation ability. CT08 - Ability in problem-solving. CT09 - Ability in decision-making. 3

5 CT10 - Ability in applying analysis of problems and professional criteria based on the use of technical tools. CT11- Motivation for quality and rigorous work. CT13 - Communication skill and ability. CT19 - Ethical commitment at work. CT28 - Apply knowledge in practice. CT29 - Ability to research. Specific and professional skills: C.E. C.E.03 - Ability in learning to assess from relevant information sources the status and expected evolution of a company and especially the area of marketing and marketing research. C.E.05 - Ability in writing comprehensive management projects or functional areas of the company relating to the field of marketing and market research. C.E.09 - Capacity for decision making on commercial variables. C.E.13 - Capacity for decision-making in specific activities. C.E.19 - Being able to apply theoretical, methodological and technical (marketing and marketing research) knowledge in a jointly way, acquired during training, team working and developing abilities of a marketing executive and marketing research professional. 5. Training Class hours Outside class hours 30 hs 60 hs 4

6 5.1 Study Plan: AFE 1 - Preparation of theoretical contents. Professor's exhibitions of the various topics covered by the course and its application to the business world, based on real examples of research conducted. Total: 47 hs Hours Class hours: 17 Outside class hours: 30 Attendance 100 AFE2 - Individual works. This activity involves the preparation of a brief report on a topic proposed by the professor covering aspects of treated by the subject. This activity can be supplemented by oral presentation of the work performed. Total: 25hs Hours Class hours: 10 Outside class hours: 15 Attendance 50 AFE4 - Debate and constructive criticism. The debate and constructive criticism will be made about current issues related to the topic of the course. The subject will be proposed by the professor, who will moderate the debate, encouraging student participation and encouraging the emergence of different perspectives and points of view, guiding all the students towards participation and criticism of different opinions. Total: 9hs Hours Class hours: 3 Outside class hours: 6 Attendance 100 5

7 AFE5 - Academic tutoring. Students should meet individually and / or in a group periodically with the professor to report the progress of the different works and have professor's guide and resolve doubts. Total: 9hs Hours Class hours: 0 Outside class hours: 9 Attendance Teaching Methodology: MD1 Theoretical classes MD2 Practical classes MD3 Tutorials 6. Grading Procedures: The grading procedure for the degrees is based on a Continuous Evaluation system in which class attendance is obligatory. In order to pass the course you must attend a minimum of 70% of the classes. Evaluation system: SEE3- theoretical part: 70% SEE4- practical part: 30% As contained in the academic guide will automatically apply the score that each student has as function of the number of absences. The scale range varies between 1 and -1. 6

8 Grading Procedure: CONTINUOUS EVALUATION CRITERIA Evaluation Total Breakdown TYPE Grading Observations Part Weight Procedures Course work 30% 30% Individual/grupal SEE4 Maximum grade: 3 points Final Exam 70% 70% Alternative exam for those students that did not pass by SEE3 For ordinary and extraordinary exams. course. The student can pass the subject, and not doing the final exam when the score average be equal or above than 5 points in each of the intermediate written exams. The students who do not pass the subject by continuous assessment must do the final exam. In this case both the ordinary exam as the extraordinary exam will have a weight of 70% of the final grade, plus a 30% applied to the total grade that take into account the rest of continuous assessment (mandatory work and active participation) The students with an attendance less than 70% are not entitled to continuous assessment, and the weight of the final exam will be 70%, both the ordinary exam as the extraordinary exam. For the repeating students that are exempt of mandatory attendance, assessment will be by the final exam weighted at 100%. 7

9 To pass the subject is mandatory to submit and pass the mandatory coursework. The first day of class, the professor in the presentation session of the course explain in detail the allocation and nature of the different tests to be performed during the course as well as the evaluation and weighting them. This document will be available to students in the virtual campus. 6.1 Inclass Tests: THE PROFESSOR CRITERIA will determine the number of written tests to be made, one or more, as part of the 70% of the grade for the final exam (partials, liberatory or not). The professor will explain the nature and weight of these tests, as stated in the previous section. 6.2 Compulsory Course Work: The students, individually, will make during the semester a mandatory work based on the analysis of the sales forecast model of a company and the application of at least 2 of the sales forecasting techniques seen in class using particular data of the company. These sales forecasting will be developed using the analytical programs EXCEL or SPSS. The selected firm will be different for each student. The coursework characteristics are as follows: Individually done. Length about 20 pages (. doc) Sent by to the professor at date indicated. 6.3 Final Exam: Continuous assessment applies both the ordinary exam as the extraordinary exam, being the weight in both cases of 70%. The exception applies only to 8

10 those students repeating the course and is exempt of mandatory attendance; in that case the final exam will be 100% of the grade. There will be no exam at another date other than the dates designated officially by ESIC Business&Marketing School. The review dates for final exams will be at the official date established by the professor and will be published together with scores of the final exam. Final Exam Structure The final exam consists in 5 questions to develop for 2 hours. The test will be assessed over 10 points and the student must demonstrate mastery of the subject and have the basic knowledge about it. As stated in the University Academic Guide, your final grade shall be automatically modified based on your attendance. This ranges from +1 to -1 depending on the number of absences, 7. Course Programme: 7.1 Course Outline: SECTION I. Sales forecasting within the business framework. SECTION II. Sales forecasting methods. SECTION III. Practical applications of sales forecasting. 7.2 Course Content: SECTION I. WITHIN THE BUSINESS FRAMEWORK 1.1 Definition. 1.2 Sales forecasting by functional areas of the company. 9

11 1.3 Factors to consider in sales forecasting. 1.4 Sales forecasting characteristics. 1.5 Sales forecasting methods: quantitative and qualitative. 1.6 Most common errors in forecasting Cannibalization. SECTION II. METHODS 2.1 Quantitative methods of sales forecasting Univariate models Time series Components of a time series Trend calculation Seasonality factor calculation Naive methods Last observation Historical average Moving average Moving annual total (MAT) Smoothing techniques Smoothing series by centered moving averages (CMM) Simple exponential smoothing ARIMA models Multivariate models (causal) Simple regression model Multiple regression model. 2.2 Qualitative methods of sales forecasting Sales meetings Sales force surveys Customer surveys Delphi method Marketing research. SECTION III. Practical applications of sales forecasting. 10

12 8. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SKILLS, COURSE CONTENT AND GRADING PROCEDURES (10) Competences Skills Basic and General CT01 CT02 CT03 CT05 CT06 CT07 CT08 CT09 CT10 CT11 CT13 CT19 CT28 CT29 Course Schedule AFE1 AFE2 AFE4 AFE5 Subjects Evaluation Weight Bloque I Bloque II SEE3 70% Bloque III SEE4 Specific Skills C.E.03 C.E.05 C.E.09 C.E.13 C.E.19 AFE1 AFE2 AFE4 Bloque I Bloque II Bloque III SEE3 SEE4 30% AFE5 Overall Weight 100% 11

13 9. Recommend Reading List: 9.1 Support Material: Basic Bibliography: Giménez, E.; Soret, I. (2010). Previsión de Ventas. Serie Cuadernos de Documentación. ESIC Editorial. ISBN: Giménez, E.; Soret, I. (2013). Previsión de Ventas y Fijación de Objetivos. ESIC Editorial. ISBN: Supplementary Bibliography: Anderson, R; Hair, J.; Bush, A. (2003). Administración de ventas. Editorial McGraw Hill. 7ª edición. ISBN: x. Hernández, J.; Zuñiga. J. (2013). Modelos econométricos para el análisis económico. Editorial ESIC. 1ª edición. ISBN: San Martín, S. (2008). Prácticas de Marketing. ESIC Editorial, Madrid. ISBN: ISBN-13: Vidal i Diez, I. (2003). La previsión de ventas: métodos y herramientas prácticas para departamentos comerciales. FC Editorial. ISBN: Biblioweb: Centro de predicción económica (CEPREDE): 12

14 Note: As stated in our Documentation Policy, books or other documents in the basic Bibliography, which are necessary for the class, shall be available to students through the library or bookshop, this is subject to each Campus. We acknowledge that the purchase of course material by students is voluntary and by no means obligatory. Each book or document shall be described in the following way: Title, Auteur, year of Publication and Editorial, and where possible the ISBN number SUBJECT 13