Latest Trends in Container Shipping. Adolf Adrion

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1 Latest Trends in Container Shipping Adolf Adrion CEO Hapag-Lloyd Container Line Basel, October 31, 2005

2 Agenda 1. Developments in Liner Shipping 2. Challenges 3. Conferences and Alliances 4. Carrier Development 5. Hapag-Lloyd and CP Ships

3 Agenda 1. Developments in Liner Shipping 2. Challenges 3. Conferences and Alliances 4. Carrier Development 5. Hapag-Lloyd and CP Ships

4 Development of Transport Volumes Transport volumes have soared in the past three years Global Container Volume Development - in Million TEU ~11% * ~8% * ~6% * * CAGR Source: Global Insight August

5 Development Container volume growth has significantly outpaced the growth of general seaborne trade Container Volume Growth (Indexed to 100% in 1980) 407 Development of the container: from a simple idea to an industry standard Containerization has rapidly increased over the past 30 years Standardization of transports constantly increases the intermodal transport from door-to-door, improves transit and turnaround times and reduces cargo damage Containers continue to replace bulk and other forms of shipping goods, especially with specialized and higher value-added products Sophisticated systems and controls are key in creating a competitive advantage for container shipping companies International Seaborne Trade (tons) Container Volume (TEU) Source: Global Insight, January

6 Growth Global container transport is expected to show continuous growth over all trade lanes Pacific % 15% 13% 9% 10% Atlantic % 3% 6% 7% 4% Far East % 8% 7% 5% 5% Eastbound Westbound Eastbound Westbound Eastbound Westbound % 4% 3% 6% 5% % 6% 5% 3% 2% % 18% 12% 11% 10% Latin America % 12% 4% 7% 4% Northbound Southbound Intra Far East % 13% 10% 9% 9% Legend Relation Year mteu growth % 7% 7% 3% 3% Intra Region East % 13% 10% 9% 8% Source: Global Insight (August 2005), FEFC 5

7 Commodities Main cargo items moving in containers today Commodity in MioTEU Synthetic Resins 8,8 Textiles 5,8 Non-refrigerated Food 5,7 Paper 4,8 Refrigerated Food (Vegetables, Meat, Fruits, Eggs) 4,3 Metal Products 4,2 Furniture 3 Other Manufacturing 2,7 Chemical Products 2,5 Parts of Motor Vehicles 2,5 Non-metallic Products 2 Plastic Products 1,8 Machinery & Equipment 1,7 Source: Global Insight Trade Databank 6

8 Development The economical advantages of container transport have fuelled world trade Price Components Motorcycle Retail Price Ocean Freight % of Retail Price 5,000$ 500$ 10% 10% ,000$ 90$ 3% Other Price Components 2003 Ocean Freight Typical Ocean Freight Levels % TV Set Vaccuum Cleaner Cookies (1 Tin) Beer (1 Bottle) Retail Price 500$ 75$ 3$ 1$ Ocean Freight 10$ 1$ 0.05$ 0.01$ % 2% 1% 2% 1% 7

9 Growth The annual growth rates for for the world trade and global economy are promissing 13% 15% Global Container Volume 10.6% 11% 11.1% 10.6% 10.1% 8.5% World Trade Global Economy 4.9% 3.0% 4.0% 5.1% 7.7% 7.5% 7.3% 4.3% 4.4% 7.0% 6.4% 6.2% 4.3% 4.3% 6.1% 6.0% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 4.3% 4.3% Sources Global Insight, IMF, Sep

10 Growth The ongoing increase of worldwide trade will lead to a constant growth in demand for container transport Division of labor = globalization Ongoing relocation of manufacturing from US and Europe to Asia Worldwide economic growth Increase in average income Reduced cycle times for innovations Decrease in unit prices for consumer goods State-of-the-art buying behavior Throw-away & buy-new instead of repair China boom Up to 8% growth p.a. in containerized cargo for the next 10 years* 9 *Source: Global Insight

11 Agenda 1. Developments in Liner Shipping 2. Challenges 3. Conferences and Alliances 4. Carrier Development 5. Hapag-Lloyd and CP Ships

12 Vessels As vessels sizes continue to increase, ports have to meet extended operational requirements Generation Post Panmax 5.Generation Suezmax TEU ca Draft 12.5 m 13.5 m 14.5 m 15 m Beam 32,2 m 39,2-42 m 42,8 m 58 m Terminal Cranes m 42 m 42 m Working from both sides

13 Supply & Demand On long-term basis the global fleet capacity is expected to exceed the world trade demand Supply & Demand Discussion on S&D On major East- West trades in mio TEU General statistics lead to wrong conclusions as they often state nominal capacity and average volumes Effects of imbalances of the tradelanes have to be considered 30,3 33,6 31,9 35,6 34,9 Detailed statistics taking into account the increasing usage of oversized boxes (HC, 45 ) causing lost slots that can not be filled with standard units are still lacking ,8 26,8 29,3 Increasing port distances and vessel round voyage duration as well as port congestions are likely to absorb some supply from Capacity (operating) Demand (dominant leg) Introduction of further tonnage is urgently needed due to continued volume increases Source: Global Insight (Aug 05) / Transmodal (Oct 05) 12

14 Supply & Demand As the cargo streams are not balanced, imbalances on the main trades remain a strong challenge in the future 13.9 Volumes in year in mio TEU Imbalance Imbalance Imbalance 1.5 Transpacific Far East/Europe Transatlantic 13 Eastbound Westbound Imbalance Source: Global Insight August 2005

15 Congestion Challenges in liner shipping: Supply chain congestion The overall supply chain congestion remains an important issue as effectiveness of global supply is heavily reduced by delays Carriers operating costs rise because of extended vessel turnaround times, full speed sailing, seeking of different gateways Terminals are under pressure due to the explosively increase in container volumes and the terminal infrastructure could become the bottleneck for growth in the future Port congestion will almost certainly return very soon without a big investment in new capacities Terminal expansions and newbuildings are under way worldwide; in Hamburg, Rotterdam, Prince Rupert, Shanghai Ports & Terminals Inland Transportation 14

16 Major existing Security Regulations Security requirements have been steadily increasing, particularly in the USA, ever since September 11th 2001 with the generally growing menace of international terrorism 2005 Jan Nov Apr July 2004 What Container Security Initiative (CSI) C-TPAT Customs Trade Partnership against Terrorism Advanced Commercial Information (ACI) International Ship & Port Facility Security Code (ISPS) Who Agreement between US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and foreign governments - 40 ports participating worldwide Voluntary agreement between US Customs and the industry Initiative of the Canadian Border Services Agency (CBSA) Compulsory prescribed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Content AMS 24hrs manifest rule Pre-screening of containers and cargo in load ports by CBP officers Usage of High Security Seals (HSS) as per ISO PAS Conducting a selfassessment of supply chain security (security for vessels, personnel and service provider) Certified by CBP Requiring key data to be transmitted electronically 24 hours before goods are loaded in foreign ports Worldwide certification of vessels and ports and terminals -> Focus is on combating threats to ships and port facilities like theft, stowaways, drug traffic, terrorism, piracy 15

17 Security Security initiatives for container transports cover the whole supply chain Warehouse/ Factory Consolidation Center Inland transport to port Container Terminal Ocean leg Container Terminal Inland transport to consignee Distribution Center Warehouse/ Factory Shipper Subcontractor Subcontractor Consignee Security Control: Container Terminal ISPS Certificate for Terminals Ocean leg Container Terminal ISPS Certificate for Terminals Subcontractors Sub- Contractors Seal Control: Consolidation Center/ Factory Container Terminal Container Terminal Distribution Center/ Factory 16

18 Security Further security regulations and related investment in processes and technologies referring to international shipping are on the way Development of smart containers and smart shipments Development of safer seals with globally binding standards Huge investments at ports and terminals are expected Security measures in the EU: Introduction of advanced cargo declaration filing for EU import and export cargo It is important to develop standardized, globally applicable regulations and processes as well as technologies that are cost efficient 17

19 Challenges The costs for carriers core assets and their operation are constantly rising ,000 Bunker Price Bunker Price (Rotterdam) MFO /2005 Vessel Newbuilding in $ per TEU USD per ton MFO 380 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 13,200 15,000 May 03 Sep 03 Jan 04 May 04 Sep 04 Aug 05 Jul Transportation Aug Container Price per 20 Standard Container Apr 2003 ~1,350 $ Sep 2004 ~2,150 $ Aug 2005 ~2,050 $ Vessel Charter Daily Charter 4,000-4,500 TEU Vessel Jul 2003 ~23,000 $ Sep 2004 ~44,000 $ Aug 2005 ~46,000 $ Security 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,0 0,9 0,8 Currency Euro in USD (01/ /2005) Panama Suez Development of Tolls Canal Imbalance +3% HAX Class % PAX Class +8% +22% +12% +1% +2% +18%

20 Agenda 1. Developments in Liner Shipping 2. Challenges 3. Conferences and Alliances 4. Carrier Development 5. Hapag-Lloyd and CP Ships

21 Conferences Liner conferences agree on uniform freight rates and other agreed conditions with respect to the provision of regular liner services in a particular trade Development of conferences in the 19th century 1850: Introduction of the first steamship Capacity increase 1869: Opening of the Suez-Channel 1873: Recession Reduction of transit times to/from Asia Slump in demand Overcapacities Ruinous competition The conference carriers committed themselves to offer even unprofitable services insulating the market from destructive competition. The first conference was established 1875 on the UK-India trade Today conferences make agreements on: Joint price fixing for ocean transports Co-ordination of shipping schedules Co-ordination or allocations among members of the conference Regulation of the carrying capacity offered by each member Information flow on volumes lifted and market shares Discussions on trade and industry outlook Internal competition within the conferences exist as individual rate fixing between the carriers and their customers is allowed 20

22 Conferences Legal framework of conferences Due to their importance for the world trade liner shipping activities have historically been granted some form of exemption or immunity from the competition rules in many jurisdictions The EU is currently revising this block exemption for liner shipping conferences For 2007 a global deregulation in liner shipping is expected EU Regulation 4056/86 TACA Decision ELAA Proposal published EU White Paper is issued Oct USA Shipping Act of 1916 Shipping Act of 1984 Ocean Shipping Reform Act 21 TACA = Trans - Atlantic Conference Agreement ELAA = European Liner Affairs Association

23 What will a possible abolition of price-fixing authority mean to the industry? Post conference era Without price-fixing authority any information about market going rate levels on given trades has to be taken from public sources and market intelligence No special rights for the industry also means no special obligations for the industry players Absolute freedom so set rates at levels and at conditions negotiated with the customers No need to respect any notice periods for increases of freight rates (other than perhaps usual business practices ) No obligation to maintain a tariff (unless required by national / regional regulators such as FMC) It will be a challenging new environment which also offers its opportunities 22

24 Alliances Alliances are close co-operations between several liner shipping companies for capacity sharing and provision of extensive service networks Following the begin of containerization high investments in technologies for new vessels, containers and terminal were needed In order to share the high burdens, shipping lines formed first alliances in the 1970ies First alliance was the Europe-Australia Alliance in 1972 Operational arrangements include joint utilization of vessels, joint use of terminals and bundled purchase No freight rates are discussed within the alliance Alliances are approved by the antitrust legislation 1 Carrier (1 Service) 5 Carrier (8 Services) Europe Far East Former Times Europe Far East weekly departures, 9 Vessels, 11 Ports Today (i.e. Grand Alliance) daily departures 56 Vessels, 34 Ports 23

25 Alliances The membership of shipping lines in alliances offers substantial advantages to the companies and its customers Benefits for the carriers Substantial cost efficiencies Joint use of terminals Reduced costs and capital expenditure Ability to co-ordinate route plans with other alliance members shipping Access to unparalleled global network Efficient use of capacity Best vessel for the loop principle in GA Cascading older and smaller vessels into other trades incl. feeder services Entrance to new markets through alliance members in particular Asia Risk sharing for entrance into new markets Benefits for the customers Significantly improved service offering: Wider range of transit routes Shorter transit times More frequent sailings Sufficient available capacity in all regions at all times Consistent and reliable high quality service 24

26 Grand Alliance The Grand Alliance will continue its supreme service also in 2006 having the most modern fleet in the world with the largest number of post panmax vessels Alliances and Global Players in 2006 Rest of World 37% other 12% Maersk (incl.ponl) 16% Grand Alliance 9% MSC 7% NWA 8% C/H/K/Y 11% Grand Alliance update Grand Alliance lines HLCL, MISC, NYK and OOCL will offer 9 % of the world fleet capacity 112 vessels dedicated to the three main East- West trade lanes The tonnage will be increased by approximately 14% in 2006 New developments in partnerships with other alliances: Slot swap with the New World Alliance in the Asia- Europe trade and introduction of a new jointlyoperated loop on the Asia-US East Coast as of early 2006 as per press release Oct 2005, not incl CP Ships 25

27 Agenda 1. Developments in Liner Shipping 2. Challenges 3. Conferences and Alliances 4. Carrier Development 5. Hapag-Lloyd and CP Ships

28 Consolidation Consolidation in liner shipping: Today the TOP 10 carriers contribute to 55% of the total capacity October 2005 Carrier Cap. in TEU % of TOP 30 Carrier Cap. in TEU % of TOP 30 Carrier Cap. in TEU % of TOP 30 1 Evergreen % Maersk Sealand % Maersk / PONL % Maersk Sea-Land Cosco NYK % 7% 7% 7% MSC Evergreen P&O Nedlloyd CMA-CGM % 7% 7% 6% MSC Evergreen CMA-CGM Hapag-Lloyd/CP % 6% 6% 6% 6 Mitsui OSK % APL % APL % 7 8 Nedlloyd P&O Containers % 4% Hanjin NYK % 4% Hanjin Cosco % 4% 9 Hanjin % Cosco % CSCL % 10 K-Line % OOCL % NYK % 33 % of total capacity % of total capacity % of total capacity Oct Source: Transmodal, October 2005

29 Consolidation Main mergers & acquisitions in the last years 1997 Hanjin buys DSR Senator CP Ships buys Likes Lines CP Ships buys Contship NOL buys APL 1998 P&ONL buys Blue Star Line CP Ships buys Ivaran Lines and ANZDL Hamburg Sued buys Alianca and South Seas Steamship Evergreen buys Lloyd Triestino D Amico buys Italia Line 1999 AP Moller buys Sea-Land and Safmarine CL P&ONL buys Tasman Express CSAV buys Companhia Libra and Montemar Delmas buys OT Africa Line HamburgSued buys Transroll Intern. and South Pacific CL 2000 CP Ships buys Christensen Canadian African Lines CSAV buys Norasia P&ONL buys Farrell Lines and buys Harrison Line Grimaldi acquires 40% of ACL Grimaldi lifted its share in ACL to more than 90% CP Ships buys Italia di Navigazione AP Moller buys SCF Oriental Lines Israel Corporation buys further 49% of ZIM Tropical Shipping buys Kent Line International CL CSAV acquires 26% shareholding in CCNI AP Moller buys Torm Lines Wan Hai Lines buys Trans Pacific Lines Sea Star Line buys NPR China Navigation Company buys Indotrans Line Hamburg Sued buys Kien Hung Shipping Castle Harlan buys Horizon Lines 28 In the recent years consolidation was largely driven by the above average rate of organic expansion and vessel ordering of the larger carriers

30 M&A Motivating factors in recent consolidation in liner shipping June 2005 for 0.3 bio USD September 2005 August 2005 for 2.8 bio USD October 2005 The latest takeovers are driven by several factors Reaching lower costs and higher productivity through economies of scale and synergies Completing global service coverage and networks or entering protected markets Reacting strategically to Maersk s expansion avoiding a scale gap New strategy away from only pure vessel ordering and organic growth Securing ownership of one of the few listed companies (most remaining carriers are either state-owned or family controlled) for 0.6 bio USD for 2.1 bio USD The new circle could last several years as the main aim is enhancing the essential efficiencies in shipping 29

31 30 TOP 5 Ranking With the take-over of P&O Nedlloyd by Maersk-Sealand, and integration of CP Ships, Hapag-Lloyd will become a top 5 global container shipping company Maersk Sealand MSC Evergreen CMA-CGM Hapag-Lloyd APL Hanjin Cosco CSCL NYK OOCL CSAV K-Line MOL ZIM Yang Min Hamburg- Sued Hyundai Pil Wan Hai in 000 teu Source: MDS Transmodal October 2005

32 Agenda 1. Developments in Liner Shipping 2. Challenges 3. Conferences and Alliances 4. Carrier Development 5. Hapag-Lloyd and CP Ships

33 Overview Hapag-Lloyd is one of the leading globally operating logistical services companies Hapag-Lloyd Fleet: 57 modern container vessels more than 530,000 TEU container of various types 7 further units of 8,400 / 8,600 TEU to be incorporated until 2008 The Colombo Express is one of the largest vessels worldwide Transport Volume: 1997: 1.0 mio TEU 2004: 2.4 mio TEU 2005: 1.3 mio TEU (1HY) Total Revenues 2004: 2,6 bn Total Revenues HY: 1,4 bn 32

34 Overview Hapag-Lloyd at a glance Global Trades Blue Chip Customers Total number of Services: Europe-Asia 16 Intra-Asia 12 Trans Pacific 14 Atlantic 6 Latin America 1 Intra-Europe 2 Intra-America 1 Asia - SAEC 1 st HY 2005 Volumes by Trade Route Global Presence Transpacific 26% Transatlantic 26% Latin America 7% Europe Far East 41% Presence in 97 countries 263 offices, including agents 67 trade services worldwide Average of ~3,700 employees 30% non-german senior managers Global blue-print organisation and integrated IT systems 33

35 Growth Track-record of outgrowing the industry where Hapag-Lloyd managed to double the transport volume in six years Key Measures Focus on expansion of strong position on each of three major trade lanes 1,030 1,235 1,375 6% Industry CAGR vs. 12% HL CAGR 1,553 1,678 1,868 2,100 2,430 Leverage attractive position in high-growth Asian market Increasing penetration of existing customer base Superior services and reputation as a reliable quality carrier Provision of value-added services Introduction of more than 20 new trade services over past 8 years 34

36 Success Factors The Hapag-Lloyd success factors Employee Productivity Blue Print Information Technology 4,406 3, ,704 3, ,415 2,101 1,852 1,678 1,558 1,407 1, ,030 3,531 3,607 3,137 3,189 3,289 3,354 3,302 3,143 3,227 Area Manager Sales Customer S. Operations Bus. Admin Transport Volume (Tsd. TEU) Employees Worldwide Own Assets Administration Costs Competence & Motivation Vessels Container Hapag - Lloyd Charter Hapag-Lloyd Charter Hapag-Lloyd: 58% Charter: 42% Hapag-Lloyd: 52% Charter: 48%

37 Strategic Fit Strategic Fit: The combination of Hapag-Lloyd & CP Ships Enhancing growth Strengthening market position Regional expansion Integration of CP Ships customer base Become one of top 5 players globally in a rapidly consolidating market and secure long-term growth Optimal regional fit of individual routes, global networks and regional market strengths Strong distribution network in the Americas and Australasia with highly complementary customer base Capacity expansion Integration of a well structured modern fleet with good fit compared with Hapag-Lloyd s existing fleet Reducing cost base Fleet optimisation Integration into one IT system Excellent fit of fleet and ownership structures, offering optimization potential for deployment of vessels Leverage Hapag-Lloyd s highly efficient IT platform to integrate CP Ships organisation successfully Optimisation of costs Significant cost savings expected from integration 36

38 Outlook Exciting outlook for combined CP Ships and Hapag-Lloyd Market leading position Continue to be a market-leading container shipping company Become one of the top 5 players in capacity terms with activities in all major countries and ports on all continents Integration benefits Build on uniform efficient business organisation and leverage its industry-leading IT infrastructure to significantly productivity increase Combination will yield efficiency gains going forward Superior profitability Target to be best-in-class container liner generating consistent industry-leading margins and returns across the shipping cycle Grand Alliance commitment Remain committed to the Grand Alliance, one of the largest global shipping alliances, and strengthen it on the basis of its enlarged capacity Organic growth Significant organic growth potential with a strong total vessel order book to capitalise on this opportunity 37

39 TOP 5 Ranking With the take-over of P&O Nedlloyd by Maersk-Sealand, and integration of CP Ships, Hapag-Lloyd will become a top 5 global container shipping company Maersk Line MSC Evergreen CMA-CGM New Hapag-Lloyd APL (NOL) Hanjin COSCO CSCL NYK OOCL CSAV Hapag-Lloyd K-Line MOL Zim CP Ships Yang Ming Hamburg-Sud Hyundai in 000 teu Source: MDS Transmodal October

40 Latest Trends in Container Shipping Adolf Adrion CEO Hapag-Lloyd Container Line Basel, October 31, 2005

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