The Size of the Prize NZ Export Meat Industry Reform

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1 The Size of the Prize NZ Export Meat Industry Reform Prepared by GHD NZ Ltd for the Meat Industry Excellence Group (MIE) August 2014

2 Executive Summary Lamb Beef Savings in procurement through reducing haulage, weight loss and third party commissions are estimated at $40.6m or $1.93 per head. Savings in rationalisation by closing 13 plants will reduce capacity by 21% and improve utilisation by 26%. This removes a total of around $60m of total operational costs or 8%. Other savings in additional yield recovery and reduced variable costs by moving to Best Practice amount to a further $66m giving an total savings in the processing area of $125.2m or $5.75 per lamb Savings in marketing through collaboration within the industry and in the market place are estimated at $63.3m or $3.00 per lamb. Savings in procurement through reducing haulage, weight loss and third party commissions are estimated at $56.3 or $24.48 per head. Savings in rationalisation by closing 6 plants will reduce capacity by 16% and improve utilisation by 19%. This removes $30m in total operational costs or 6%. Other savings in additional yield recovery and reduced variable costs by moving to best practice amount to a further $61m giving an total savings in the processing area of $90.3m or $39.25 per head. Savings in marketing through collaboration within the industry and in the market place amount to $67.9m or $29.5 per head. Overall Comments The above savings will be captured year on year if no more capacity is added. In the first year around 50% of the savings will be required to fund closures. With livestock numbers still falling the over capacity situation will only worsen. Currently we have enough capacity to kill everything twice. This report is prepared on the premise that there is universal agreement around livestock procurement. How this is achieved is the challenge but if agreement is reached the rewards are substantial. The marketing gains through collaboration are very conservative. Currently the main players all have an office in the UK, Europe, North America and the Middle East. Rationalisation of these alone would yield a substantial saving. 2

3 3 $444 million

4 Content Executive summary Introduction Background Disclaimer & Confidentiality Procurement assumptions Haulage Weight loss Bovine The players Bovine meat processing trends Bovine recent processing changes The bovine meat industry costs today Summary of bovine companies 3 rd Party commissions Rationalisation assumptions Methodology Capacity changes References Glossary Ovine The players Ovine processing capacity trends Ovine recent capacity changes Ovine seasonal fluctuations The NZ ovine meat industry costs today Summary of ovine companies Rationalisation model Variance analysis Commentary on the rationalisation model Rationale Ovine plant locations after rationalisation Variance analysis Commentary on the rationalisation model Rationale Bovine plant locations after rationalisation Best Practice Opportunities Market Benefits assumptions Collaboration Market revenue Cost of closure Doomsday scenarios Appendices 4

5 Background GHD were commissioned by the Meat Industry Excellence Group (MIE) to provide an indication of the size of the financial benefits if a reformed New Zealand meat industry delivered the following: Removal of procurement behaviours which add significant cost to the business; Rationalization of the imbalance between livestock supply and processing capacity; and Stability in the market place to maximize the returns. GHD have many years of experience and have collected an extensive range of data from their work in the New Zealand and global meat industry. This includes design of many New Zealand plants and the benchmarking of processing operations. The meat industry is of vital importance to the New Zealand economy and, with export earnings of $7.2 billion, is second only to dairy. New Zealand is the largest exporter of ovine products in the world. But in recent years the industry has come under pressure from a change in land use, falling ovine numbers, poor industry financial performance and erratic returns to farmer suppliers. Furthermore there is genuine concern that market returns are eroded by individual New Zealand companies bidding against each other. In many instances high prices paid for livestock are more representative of a lack of throughput than a reflection of true market returns. There is a lack of trust between the farming community and meat processors and short term thinking overrides any long term strategies around R&D, reinvestment and marketing. On the positive side the meat and by-product items exported by the New Zealand meat industry are world class. There is a global shortage of protein and New Zealand lamb in particular has risen out of the commodity market to being a high value delicacy alongside venison. New Zealand's clean green image adds to the persona where both beef and lamb products are seen as pure, healthy and safe. All stakeholders agree that having a strong, vibrant meat industry is good for New Zealand. Having a healthy alternative to the dairy industry is a very necessary strategy for New Zealand s pastoral farming long term, well being. 5

6 Introduction This report is based around one key assumption and that is that the majority of farmers collectively agree to sell their livestock on a contracted basis to the nearest slaughter plant. Only when this is achieved will competition at the farm gate be minimised thereby enabling meat processing companies to rationalise their facilities based on a committed volume of livestock. There is a desperate need to address the overcapacity within the NZ meat industry. This has been brought about by a significant change in land use. The major shift has been the conversion of sheep and cattle pastoral farms to dairying. This change has reduced the sheep and lamb slaughter from a high of 45 million in 1984 to today where only 21.5 million will be processed. Whilst the total livestock supply for beef has remained reasonably static there has been increased number of dairy cows at the expense of the number of steers and bulls being raised. This means we are currently only utilising 47% of the capacity for ovine and 59% for bovine. Put simply, for ovine, we could process all the livestock twice every year. There is an industry view (supported by the banks) that the problem should be left to normal financial and market forces and it will resolve itself i.e. last man standing. The collapse of Weddell Crown in the mid 90's only gave short relief with the capacity being replaced within 2 years. This approach inherently has a high level of pain for those impacted whether they be farmers, transport companies or workers and their families. It is the current model of doing business that is broken and the cost of entry is to low. The chronic overcapacity has delivered a lack of profitability by all the major players with only a small number of cherry picking companies being able to make profits. Therefore, an alternative approach must be preferable to the collapse of a major player. The MIE are looking for a solution that enables an orderly transition and which delivers significant financial benefits back to the stakeholders. This is to ensure not only the industry actually survives but prospers. This is our opportunity to achieve major savings for all stakeholders by creating a stronger and more viable meat processing industry. 6

7 Disclaimer & Confidentiality Disclaimer While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained within this report, GHD accepts no liability for errors or omissions or opinions expressed. To the best of the authors knowledge the information contained is true and accurate. Confidentiality Please refer to the confidentiality document between Meat Industry Excellence Group and GHD for the purpose of this report. 7

8 Procurement Financial savings we can expect to see from procurement activities from a reformed meat industry. 8

9 Procurement - Haulage Assumptions - the costs for cartage were obtained from transport operators and livestock managers who currently operate within the NZ industry. The livestock slaughter figures were supplied by the NZ Meat Board. The Red Meat Sector Report stated that $100 million is spent on transporting livestock outside regions where there plants are located. Ovine Currently NZ processes approximately 21 million sheep & lamb per year The average cost of transport to the nearest plant is approximately $3.20 per head. However, it is estimated that around half the export kill goes past the gate of the nearest plant making the actual national average around $5.50 per head. Based on redirecting half of these to the nearest plant the saving would be $12m Bovine Currently NZ processes 2.3 million beef per year The average cost of transport cost to the nearest plant is approximately $35 per head. However, it is estimated that around half the export kill goes past the gate of the nearest plant making the actual national average around $60 per head. Based on redirecting half of these to the nearest plant the saving would be $14.5m. Reduction in 3rd Party (sales yards for bovine) Our estimates and industry sources say that approximately 15% of cattle will no longer pass through the sale yards. The extra cost of transport to the sale yard is approximately $25 per head Based on 2.3 million head at 15% the annual savings will be $8.6 m Source transport costs - Red Meat Sector Report verified by GHD with transport operators and livestock buyers. 9

10 Procurement Weight Loss Ovine With shorter distances travelled there will be savings in weight loss. The estimates we received were between 1.0% and 1.5%. We have chosen 1.2% to be conservative (200 gms per head). Thus using an average carcass weight of 17 kgs and a value of $6.5 per kg the annual saving is $6.5 m. Bovine The estimates we received for cattle were between 2.0% to 3.0% Again to be conservative we have chosen 2.3% (5.9 kgs per head) Thus using a average carcass weight of 255 kgs and a value of $4.40 per kg the annual saving is $9.2 m. Weight loss due to injury (bovine only) Our industry sources estimate that 10% of the cattle transported are impacted by injury due to longer travelling distances beyond the nearest plant This results in the loss of 5 kgs per head in bruised meat trimmed off on the slaughter floor. Thus using 10% of total bovine kill (2.3million) at 5 kgs per head at $4.50 per kg the annual savings are $5.2 m. Source transport costs - Red Meat Sector Report verified by GHD with transport operators and livestock buyers. 10

11 Procurement 3 rd Party Commissions If the majority of livestock was contracted this would lessen the need for 3rd party operators. The estimates we have range between 20% to 40% of livestock are procured by 3rd party operators. The industry is currently over serviced by livestock buyers and commission agents. Therefore it is estimated there would be a reduction of approximately 30% in costs once the contract system was implemented. Ovine 21.0 million ovine x $100 per 5% commission by 30% less $1.50 meat company buyer = $22.1 m Bovine 2.3 bovine x $750 per head@ 5% commission by 30% less $10 meat company buyer = $18.0 m Source transport costs - Red Meat Sector Report verified by GHD with transport operators and livestock buyers. 11

12 Procurement summary of savings Item Annual Savings $ millions Savings per head Haulage Ovine $12.0 $0.57 Bovine $14.5 $ rd party haulage Bovine $8.6 $3.74 Weight loss Ovine $6.5 $0.31 Bovine $9.2 $4.00 Bovine injury $5.2 $ rd Party Commissions Ovine $22.1 $1.05 Bovine $18.8 $8.25 Total ovine $40.6 $1.93 Total bovine $56.3 $24.48 Overall total $

13 Processing Financial savings we can expect to see from right sizing processing activities from a reformed meat industry. 13

14 Processing Rationalisation Assumptions For the apportionment of fixed costs across multi-species plants, GHD used lamb equivalents i.e. 1 head of beef = 10 lamb equivalents (i.e.). This is an industry standard. No account was made for processing bobby calves or goats. These species are processed on the lamb lines and the conversion for plants, after rationalisation, is relatively simple. There is no account made for venison processing. This study applies to export plants (ME) only. All domestic abattoirs (AB) have been excluded. By-product processing - many companies have rendering and skin processing operations either on or off site. Examples are Shannon Fellmongery for SFF and Hawkes Bay Hides for Affco. No account has been made to balance these operations with plants rationalised. This can be addressed as a separate exercise post any rationalisation. Some plants have resource consents that may be restricted by volume. We have no knowledge of these. There has been no account made for the cost of closure. There has been no account made for upgrading or modifying the remaining plants further processing capacity to account for a higher throughput. An example is SFF where slaughter capacity is not matched by further processing capacity hence their current need for Silverstream. 14

15 Methodology The first step was to establish the current NZ kill capacity (by company and by plant) using GHD and public data. GHD then apportioned the forecast 2013/14 kill by plant based on GHD s knowledge and the EU/USA quota access data for meat exports which uses a 3 year rolling average. This established the respective companies kill share A spreadsheet was developed for ovine and bovine showing all variable and fixed costs by plant. This gave the total cost for the New Zealand processing industry. These figures do not include corporate costs, marketing offices, head offices, finance and legal fees. The utilisation of and the determining of industry capacity is defined as follows: Capacity is defined as the slaughter capability of a plant in ordinary time i.e. before overtime. Maximum capacity is the ordinary time capacity plus overtime i.e. plus 20% (1 hour extra Monday to Friday and 4 hours in the week end). This was necessary to ensure there was sufficient capacity to cover peak kills after rationalisation. GHD were then able to determine the Best Practice plants within a company and each plant s relative position New Zealand wide. While not the sole criterion, performance was a factor when deciding which plants would be closed. Location relative to other plants and to livestock concentrations was another. 15

16 References Kill data 2009/10 Actual through to 2013/14 Forecast. Source: NZ Meat Board Plant capacities, Ovine and Bovine. Source: GHD Data Plant cost structures. Source: GHD Data Plant locations and capabilities. Source: Beef & Lamb NZ Livestock concentrations by region. Source: MPI, NZ Process flows. Source: NZ Beef & Lamb Reference Guide EU and USA apportionment of access quota Source: MIA 16

17 The OVINE players Multi-plant operators 85% kill share Single-plant operators 15% kill share 17

18 The players Company Plant Takapau Waitotara Frasertown Fairton Finegand Waitane Pareora Silverstream Weekly Capacity (in ordinary time) 61,200 12,500 7,500 34,560 69,260 8,205 52,440 - Location Hawkes Bay Taranaki East Coast Canterbury Otago Southland Canterbury Otago Nearest major town Waipukurau Wanganui Wairoa Ashburton Balclutha Invercargill Oamaru Dunedin Capability By-products on site Rendering Nil Nil Rendering Skin Processing Rendering Nil Rendering Skin Processing Nil Nearest Competitor Alliance Dannevirke Affco Imlay Affco Wairoa ANZCO Ashburton Alliance Lorneville, Mataura Alliance Lorneville ANZCO Ashburton, Alliance Smithfield F/P only Labour source Hastings & Waipukurau Wanganui Wairoa Ashburton Balclutha Mossburn, Lumsden Oamaru Dunedin 18

19 The players Company Plant Dannevirke Levin Nelson Smithfield Pukurei Lorneville Weekly Capacity (in ordinary time) 18,500 12,000 10,000 38,400 57, ,600 Location Dannevirke Levin Nelson Timaru Oamaru Invercargill Nearest major town Dannevirke Levin Nelson Timaru Oamaru Invercargill Capability By-products on site Nil Rendering Rendering Rendering Rendering Skin Processing Rendering Skin Processing Nearest Competitor SFF Takapau Affco Imlay None SFF Pareora SFF Pareora Lean Meats Blue Sky, Prime range, Affco SPM Labour source 19 Waipukurau, Hastings Wanganui Nelson Timaru Oamaru Invercargill

20 The players Company Plant Moerewa Rangiuru Wairoa Imlay Malvern SPM Weekly Capacity (in ordinary time) 8,000 40,720 40,720 40,720 7,500 20,000 Location Moerewa Te Puke Wairoa Wanganui Christchurch Bluff Nearest major town Moerewa Te Puke Wairoa Wanganui Christchurch Invercargill Capability By-products on site Rendering Rendering Nil Rendering Nil Nil Nearest Competitor AMP AMP, Crusader Frasertown, Gisborne Waitotara, Rangitikei Fairton, Ashburton Lorneville Labour source Moerewa Te Puke Wairoa Wanganui Christchurch Invercargill 20

21 The players Plant Gisborne Hastings Feilding TKM Weekly Capacity (in ordinary time) 21,660 21,660 21,660 12,500 Location Gisborne Hastings Feilding Te Kuiti Nearest major town Gisborne Hastings Feilding Te Kuiti Capability By-products on site Nil Nil Nil Nil Nearest Competitor Frasertown, Affco Wairoa SFF Takapau ANZCO Rangitikei Crusader Labour source Gisborne Hastings Feilding Te Kuiti 21

22 The players Company Plant Ashburton Rakaia Rangitikei Weekly Capacity (in ordinary time) 39,500 10,000 25,000 Location Ashburton Rakia Marton Nearest major town Ashburton Rakia Marton Capability By-products on site Rendering, Skin Processing Nil Nil Nearest Competitor SFF Fairton Affco Malvern Ovation Feilding Labour source Ashburton Rakia Marton 22

23 The players Company Plant AMP Bennydale Blue Sky Taylor Preston Prime Range Lean Meats Fresh Meats Weekly Capacity (in ordinary time) 15,000 15,000 27,500 38,250 5,000 5,000 5,000 Location Auckland Bennydale Edendale Wellington Invercargill Oamaru Napier Nearest major town Auckland Te Kuiti Edendale Wellington Invercargill Oamaru Napier Capability By-products on site Rendering Nil Nil Rendering Nil Nil Nil Nearest Competitor Moerewa, TKM, Crusader AMP, TKM Lorneville, Finegand Levin, Imlay Bluesky, Lorneville Pukeuri Takapau, Wairoa Labour source Auckland Te Kuiti, Taumarunui Edendale Wellington Invercargill Oamaru Napier 23

24 Annual Million Ovine processing capacity trends For ovine, the maximum killing capacity has decreased only slightly while throughput has fallen more dramatically, especially in the past five years. Currently there is nearly twice the maximum killing capacity required. Around 70% of the capacity closed since the mid 2000 s has been replaced with new capacity. Sheep & Lamb Kill v Maximum Capacity Lamb capacity Lamb kill

25 Ovine recent processing capacity changes Closures Year Company Plant Weekly Killing Capacity 2005 Silver Fern Farms Tirau 12, Silver Fern Farms Oringi 28, Silver Fern Farms Canterbury 35, Wallace Corp Thames 5, Alliance Group Sockburn 17, Silver Fern Farms Canterbury (F/P) Progressive Waipukurau (F/P) 2012 Alliance Group Mataura 40,000 TOTAL 138,690 New Capacity 2004 Alliance Group Dannevirke 25, ANZCO Rangitikei 25, AFFCO SPM Awarua 25, ANZCO Rakaia 5, Alliance Group Levin 12, AFFCO Melvern 7,500 TOTAL 100,000 Note: SFF purchased Frasertown in

26 Monthly Kill Ovine seasonal fluctuations 4,000,000 Current Industry Capacity 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , / / / /13 Provisional 2013/14 Estimate 26

27 The NZ Ovine meat industry costs today Sheep & Lamb (Millions head) Company Total NZ SFF AGL Affco Ovation ANZCO AMP Crusader Blue Sky Taylor Preston Prime Range Lean Meats Fresh Meats No. of Ovine Sites Capacity Share of Forecast 2013/14 Kill Kill Share 100.0% 24.9% 29.8% 12.5% 8.8% 8.5% 2.2% 2.1% 3.0% 5.1% 1.0% 1.5% 0.6% Utilisation 47% 45% 46% 37% 51% 51% 66% 62% 49% 60% 70% 79% 57% Variable Costs $430.2 $126.3 $131.4 $51.9 $31.1 $30.3 $8.3 $7.3 $11.2 $20.2 $3.9 $5.8 $2.5 $/hd $20.01 $23.61 $20.54 $19.25 $16.50 $16.48 $17.33 $16.48 $17.18 $18.38 $18.38 $18.38 $18.38 Fixed Costs $290.1 $78.4 $73.9 $38.2 $22.3 $28.3 $7.6 $6.9 $10.3 $14.9 $2.9 $4.5 $1.9 Total Costs $720.3 $204.7 $205.3 $90.1 $53.4 $58.6 $15.9 $14.2 $21.5 $35.1 $6.8 $10.3 $ $/hd $33.42 $38.26 $32.09 $33.42 $28.25 $32.16 $33.22 $32.02 $32.95 $31.91 $32.21 $32.68 $31.95

28 28

29 Summary of Ovine companies Silver Fern Farms Second largest ovine share with 24.9% and largest beef kill share. New Zealand's largest meat processing co-operative with turnover of over $2 billion. 8 ovine sites with 3 in the North Island. 1 site (Silverstream) supplies only further processing capacity available to the Otago/Southland plants. A complex processing model with added logistics e.g. Silverstream. Alliance Group AFFCO Largest ovine share with 29.8% with turnover of $1.4 billion. Considered a South Island ovine co-operative that also processes some beef. 6 sites with 2 small plants in the North Island. 1 large site (Lorneville) with nearly 50% of the companies capacity. Third largest ovine share with 12.5%, a private company with turnover estimated at $1.2 billion. Second largest bovine processor equal with ANZCO. 6 sites with 2 in the South Island. Recent upgrades to Malvern ANZCO Shares 4 th equal ovine kill share with Ovation, privately owned with turnover of over $1 billion. Second equal largest bovine processor. Spread between both North and South Islands. 29

30 Summary of Ovine highlights Ovation AMP Share 4 th largest ovine kill share with ANZCO. Privately owned North Island company with no beef operations. Recent upgrades to Feilding further processing. Considered best practice. Largest multi-species single plant in NZ located in Auckland. Privately owned and first and foremost a domestic abattoir with an export license. Crusader Small, privately owned, single plant, ovine processor located at Bennydale. Taylor Preston Privately owned, Wellington single plant processing for both domestic and export. Multi species plant. Blue Sky Others Privately owned, single site ovine plant located in Southland. Prime Range, Lean Meats and Fresh Meats all small abattoirs that do a bit of export ovine. 30

31 Rationalisation model Sheep & Lamb (Millions) Company Total NZ SFF AGL Affco Ovation ANZCO AMP Crusader Blue Sky Taylor Preston Prime Range Lean Meats Fresh Meats No. of Ovine Sites Capacity Share of Forecast 2013/14 Kill Kill Share 100.0% 24.9% 29.8% 12.5% 8.8% 8.5% 2.2% 2.1% 3.0% 5.1% 1.0% 1.5% 0.6% Utilisation 59% 61% 58% 55% 61% 59% 66% 62% 49% 60% 70% 79% 57% Variable Costs $430.4 $124.5 $132.0 $51.8 $31.0 $31.9 $8.3 $7.3 $11.2 $20.2 $3.9 $5.8 $2.5 $/hd $20.01 $ $19.22 $ $17.33 $16.48 $17.18 $18.38 $18.38 $18.38 $18.38 Fixed Costs $230.7 $50.1 $57.8 $29.0 $19.1 $25.7 $7.6 $6.9 $10.3 $14.9 $2.9 $4.5 $1.9 Total Costs $661.1 $174.6 $189.8 $80.8 $50.1 $57.6 $15.9 $14.2 $21.5 $35.1 $6.8 $10.3 $4.4 $/hd $30.74 $32.65 $29.66 $29.97 $26.54 $31.41 $33.22 $32.02 $32.95 $31.91 $32.21 $32.68 $31.95 Savings $59.2 $30.1 $15.5 $9.3 $3.3 $

32 Variance analysis Export Ovine Industry Summary ($ Millions) Company Before Rationalisation After Rationalisation Variance Comments No. of Ovine Sites Only the 5 multi-plant companies contribute Capacity A reduction in capacity of 21% Utilisation 47% 59% +26% A significant improvement in utilisation Variable Costs $430.2 $ $0.2 Virtually the same $/hd $20.01 $ Fixed Costs $290.1 $230.7 $59.4 A reduction in fixed costs of 21% Total Costs $720.3 $661.1 $59.2 A reduction in total costs of 8% or $2.68 for every head processed $/hd $33.42 $30.74 $

33 Commentary on the rationalisation model This is a theoretical exercise to capture the maximum savings from having only those plants that are required to process the projected kill for 2013/14 of 21.5 million. The opportunity to rationalise the Ovine plants is only with those companies that have more than one site. Our approach has been to maximise the throughput at as few plants as possible by company. We have looked to place the remaining plants geographically in the areas where the greatest concentration of livestock is located. The current weekly capacity in ordinary time is 950,000 head. With overtime this can be expanded to 1.14 million. GHD proposes capacity could be reduced to 750,000 per week in ordinary time with the ability to expand to 900,000 with overtime. This can be achieved by closing 13 sites and processing the total kill at the remaining sites and keeping the individual kill shares to the current level. Those plants closed are: SFF Waitotara, Fairton, Silverstream, Waitane, Frasertown AGL Levin, Nelson, Smithfield Affco Moerewa, Rangiuru, Malvern Ovation TKM ANZCO Rakia This would save the NZ ovine meat industry around $60 million annually. 33

34 Weekly Kill Rationale 1,000,000 Projected 2013/14 Ovine Kill with Overtime Capacity 900, , ,000 Capacity with Overtime 900k New Capacity in Ordinary Time 750k 600, , , , , ,000 0 Weeks Projected 2013/14 Kill 34

35 AFFCO Moerewa AMP Bennydale Ovation Gisborne Ovine plant locations after rationalisation AFFCO Imlay ANZCO Marton AFFCO Feilding Taylor Preston SFF Takapau AGL Dannevirke AFFCO Wairoa Freshmeats Ovation Hastings ANZCO Ashburton SFF Pareora AGL Pukurei Lean Meats SHEEP & 35 AGL Lornville AFFCO SPM Blue Sky SFF Finegand Prime Meats LAMB PLANTS

36 The BOVINE players Multi-plant operators 86% kill share Single-plant operators 14% kill share 36

37 The players Company Plant Dargaville Te Aroha Waitoa Pacific Hawera Belfast Pareora Finegand Weekly Capacity (in ordinary time) 2,200 3,600 3,000 4,500 5,500 3,500 1,250 3,500 Location Dargaville Waikato Waikato Hawkes Bay South Taranaki Canterbury Canterbury Southland Nearest major town Waipukurau Te Aroha Te Aroha Morrinsville Hastings Hawera Christchurch Oamaru Balcutha Capability By-products on site Nil Nil Nil Rendering Nil Rendering Rendering Nil Nearest Competitor Affco Moerewa Greenlea Morrinsville Greenlea Morrinsville Affco Wairoa ANZCO Eltham ANZCO Ashburton Alliance Pukurei Alliance Mataura Labour source Dargaville Te Aroha Te Aroha Morrinsville Hastings Hawera Christchurch Oamaru Balcutha 37

38 The players Company Plant Levin Pukurei Mataura Weekly Capacity (in ordinary time) 1,200 2,500 4,500 Location Horowhenua Oamaru Southland Nearest major town Levin Oamaru Mataura Capability By-products on site Affco Feilding SFF Pareora SFF Finegand Nearest Competitor Levin Oamaru Mataura Labour source Levin Oamaru Mataura 38

39 The players Company Plant Moerewa Rangiuru Wairoa Horotiu Feilding Malvern Weekly Capacity (in ordinary time) 3,000 1,875 1,750 5,000 3, Location Northland Bay of Plenty Wairoa Waikato Manawatu Canterbury Nearest major town Moerewa Te Puke Wairoa Hamilton Feilding Christchurch Capability By-products on site Rendering Rendering Nil Nil Nil Nil Nearest Competitor SFF Dargaville Greenlea Morrinsville SFF Te Aroha SFF Pacific Greenlea Hamilton Alliance Levin ANZCO Ashburton Labour source Moerewa Te Puke Wairoa Hamilton Feilding Christchurch 39

40 The players Plant Morrinsville Hamilton Weekly Capacity (in ordinary time) 2,500 2,800 Location Morrinsville Hamilton Nearest major town Capability By-products on site Nil Nil Nearest Competitor Waitoa Te Aroha Waitoa Horotiu Labour source Morrinsville Hamilton 40

41 The players Company Plant Eltham Bulls Blenheim Kokiri Ashburton Weekly Capacity (in ordinary time) 5,500 1,750 1,750 1,500 2,500 Location Eltham Bulls Blenheim Kokiri Ashburton Nearest major town Eltham Bulls Blenheim Kokiri Ashburton Capability By-products on site Nil Nil Nil Nil Rendering Nearest Competitor Hawera Feilding Belfast Belfast Malvern Labour source Eltham Bulls Blenheim Kokiri Ashburton 41

42 The players Company Plant AMP Te Kuiti Taylor Preston Weekly Capacity (in ordinary time) 5,000 3,600 2,800 Location Auckland Te Kuiti Wellington Nearest major town Auckland Te Kuiti Wellington Capability By-products on site Rendering Nil Rendering Nearest Competitor Horotiu Horotiu, Greenlea Levin, Feilding Labour source Auckland Te Kuiti Wellington 42

43 Bovine meat processing trends For bovine, capacity has increased slightly while throughput has remained relatively flat. Beef Kill v Capacity Beef Capacity Beef kill

44 Bovine recent processing capacity changes Closures Year Company Plant Weekly Killing Capacity 2009 Wallace Corp Thames 1, Alliance Group Sockburn 1,250 TOTAL 2,250 New Capacity 2009 Alliance Group Levin 1, Greenlea Morrinsville 750 to 1, AFFCO Malvern 500 to1,200 TOTAL 2,250 In the past 5 years closures in capacity have been neutralised by increases in capacity. Of note is the recent entrance into Bovine processing on a small scale by Ovation at their Feilding and Hastings plants roughly 70 to 100 per day. 44

45 The NZ Bovine meat industry costs today Beef (Millions head) Company Total NZ SFF AGL Affco Greenlea ANZCO AMP UBP Taylor Preston No. of Bovine Sites Capacity Share of Forecast 2013/14 Kill Kill Share 100.0% 31.0% 8.6% 19.5% 8.1% 19.2% 6.0% 5.7% 2.0% Utilisation 59% 57% 57% 57% 70% 62% 55% 75% 33% Variable Costs $301.9 $99.7 $28.0 $56.9 $22.0 $57.9 $17.1 $14.6 $5.7 $/hd $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Fixed Costs $229.1 $71.0 $19.1 $41.5 $17.5 $51.4 $13.1 $10.5 $5.1 Total Costs $531.0 $170.7 $47.1 $98.3 $39.4 $109.3 $30.2 $25.0 $ $/hd $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $243.32

46 46

47 Summary of Bovine companies Silver Fern Farms Largest bovine share with 31% and second largest lamb kill share. New Zealand's largest meat processing co-operative with turnover of over $2 billion but on 23 sites. 8 bovine sites with 3 in the South Island. Alliance Group AFFCO Considered a South Island ovine co-operative that also processes some beef. 3 sites with 1 small plant in the North Island. Second equal largest bovine share with 19.5%, a private company with turnover estimated at $1.2 billion. 6 beef sites with 5 in the North Island. Recent upgrades to Malvern. ANZCO Shares second equal bovine kill share with Affco, privately owned with turnover of over $1 billion. Spread between both North and South Islands with a market share of 19.2% Greenlea AMP UBP TP Privately owned with 2 plants in the Waikato. Recent capacity increase at Morrinsville. Largest single plant beef kill supplying Auckland region but compliments with export kill. Best Practice in NZ. A little like AMP supplies the Wellington region with domestic beef but not with the same efficiency. 47

48 Rationalisation model Beef (Millions head) Company Total NZ SFF AGL Affco Greenlea ANZCO AMP UBP Taylor Preston No. of Bovine Sites Capacity Share of Forecast 2013/14 Kill Kill Share 100.0% 31.0% 8.6% 19.5% 8.1% 19.2% 6.0% 5.7% 2.0% Utilisation 70% 71% 76% 70% 70% 79% 55% 75% 33% Variable Costs $298.5 $99.6 $27.9 $56.7 $22.0 $54.9 $17.1 $14.6 $5.9 $/hd $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Fixed Costs $203.2 $64.5 $16.9 $35.4 $17.5 $40.3 $13.1 $10.5 $5.1 Total Costs $501.8 $164.1 $44.8 $92.1 $39.4 $95.2 $30.3 $25.0 $10.9 $/hd $221.8 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Savings 29.3 $6.6 $2.4 $6.2 - $

49 Variance analysis Export Bovine Industry Summary (Millions) Company Before Rationalisation After Rationalisation Variance Comments No. of Bovine Sites Only 4 of the 5 multi-plant companies contribute Capacity A reduction in capacity of 16% Utilisation 59% 70% +19% A significant improvement in utilisation Variable Costs $301.9 $298.5 $3.4 A slight decrease due to plant mix $/hd $ $ $1.37 Fixed Costs $229.1 $203.2 $25.9 A reduction in fixed costs of 11% Total Costs $531.0 $501.8 $29.3 A reduction in total costs of 6% or $12.90 for every head processed $/hd $ $ $

50 Commentary on the rationalisation model This is a theoretical exercise to capture the maximum savings from having only those plants that are required to process the projected kill for 2013/14 of million. The opportunity to rationalise the Bovine plants is only with those companies that have more than one site. Our approach has been to maximise the throughput at as few plants as possible by company. We have looked to place the remaining plants geographically in the areas where the greatest concentration of livestock is located. The current weekly capacity in ordinary time is 80,825 head. With overtime this can be expanded to 97,000 head. GHD proposes capacity could reduce to 69,000 per week in ordinary time with the ability to expand to 83,000 with overtime. This can be achieved by closing 6 sites and processing the total kill at the remaining sites and keeping the individual kill shares to the current level. Those plants closed are: SFF Waitoa AGL Levin Affco Rangiuru, Malvern ANZCO Blenheim, Kokiri This would save the NZ bovine meat industry between $30 and $35 million annually. 50

51 Weekly Kill Rationale 100,000 Projected 2013/14 Beef Kill with Overtime Capacity 90,000 80,000 Capacity with Overtime 83k 70,000 60,000 Capacity in Ordinary Time 69k 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - Weeks Projected 2013/14 Kill 51

52 AFFCO Moerewa SFF Dargaville AM P SFF Te Aroha Greenlea Morrinsville AFFCO Horotiu Greenlea Hamilton UBP Te Kuiti Bovine plant locations after rationalisation AFFCO Feilding ANZCO Bulls ANZCO Eltham SFF Hawera AFFCO Wairoa SFF Pacific Taylor Preston SFF Belfast ANZCO Ashburton AGL Pukurei SFF Pareora 52 AGL Mataura SFF Finegand BEEF PLANTS

53 Ovine Best Practice Opportunities This applies to direct wages only. The difference between the average of the upper quartile plants and the average of the remainder is $2.40 per head. The potential savings if all plants were in the upper quartile costs is between $40m and $45m. 53

54 Bovine Best Practice Opportunities This is direct wages only. The difference between the average of the upper quartile plants and the average of the remainder is $18.67 per head. The potential savings if all plants were in the upper quartile costs is between $30m and $35m. 54

55 Ovine Bovine Best Practice Yields Achieving best practice in meat recovered from boning and cutting is low hanging fruit because the meat processors have paid for the product and it costs very little to focus on this operation to achieve best practice. GHD s experience is that there is significant room for improvement within the NZ meat industry with only a few operators achieving best practice. We have offered to coordinate an industry approach to facilitate the NZ meat industry. Unfortunately like a lot of industry initiatives we were unable to obtain agreement amongst the major players. GHD believes there is at least 1% yield on average not being recovered as meat but remaining on the bones and realising 10 cents per kg rather than $4.50 packed into a carton. Bovine 2.3 million carcass average 255 kgs x 1% = 2.55 kgs per head x $4.50 gives annual savings of $26,393,000 or $11.48 per head Ovine 21 million carcass weight average 17 kgs x 1% = 170 gms per head x $6.0 gives annual savings of $21,420,000 or $1 per head 55

56 Summary of Processing Rationalisation Rationalisation savings Efficiency Improvement Savings per Annum - Millions Savings per head Ovine (reduction 34 to 21 plants) 26% $59.2 $2.75 Bovine (reduction 27 to 21 plants) 19% $29.3 $12.75 Best practice direct costs Ovine $45.0 $2.00 Bovine $35.0 $15.20 Best practice yields Ovine $21.0 $1.00 Bovine $26.0 $11.30 Total ovine $125.2 $5.75 Total bovine $90.3 $39.25 Overall total $

57 Marketing Financial savings we can expect to see from a more collaborative approach from a reformed meat industry. 57

58 Market Benefits There are opportunities for the meat industry to work together in the areas of shipping, packaging and water, waste water and energy. The packaging costs for the industry (cartons, shrink film, vacuum bags, and other consumables cost the industry approximately $108.6 million ovine and $78.9 million bovine per year. A 5% saving would provide $5.4 million and $4.0 million per annum respectively totalling $9.4 m. Water, waste water and energy (WWE) have annual cost to the industry of approximately $135 million. Description $ Typical WWE cost beef/hd $16 Typical WWE cost sheep & lamb / hd $5 Annual industry WWE cost $135m Saving target 10% $13.5m GHD has made a presentation, through the MIA, to provide a benchmark study in order to identify the opportunities where savings might be made. We believe if companies were to produce their own energy using existing technology of cogeneration and anaerobic digestion they could utilize existing waste material. This would have a dual benefit of disposing of some waste and significantly reducing energy cost. 58

59 Market Benefits Assumption: If the industry co-operated in the market place the assumption we have made from information provided by senior meat company marketing executives is that we would be able to add an additional 1.5% revenue to beef and lamb returns. Assuming the meat industry co-operated on the procurement contract system described in the introduction then it would be reasonable to assume this level of co-operation would flow over into the market place. Currently we have companies accusing one another of weak selling. This is because the industry is under stress and these circumstances (shedding inventory) dictate in many cases the disposal of product rather than marketing. 1.5% additional revenue NZ Meat Industry export sales $Billion Value/kg Revenue $m $/head Ovine $3.3 $6.50 $49.5 $2.36 Bovine $3.9 $4.50 $58.5 $25.43 Total $7.2 $108.0 The Red Meat Sector Report stated that those processors who have established value chains have been earning $0.73 per kg for lamb (11%) and $0.53 per kg for beef (10%) more than the average. 59

60 Collaboration Benefits Annual savings Packaging $m WWE $m Total $/head Ovine $5.4 $8.4 $13.8 $0.65 Bovine $4.0 $5.4 $9.4 $4.07 Total $9.4 $13.8 $

61 Summary of all Collaboration and Market Benefits Item $m S/head Collaboration Ovine $13.8 $0.65 Bovine $9.4 $4.07 Market Revenue Ovine $49.5 $2.36 Bovine $58.5 $25.43 Summary Total Ovine $63.3 $3.00 Total Bovine $67.9 $29.50 Overall total $

62 Overall Summary Item Ovine Bovine Revenue $m $/head Revenue $m $/head Procurement $40.6 $1.90 $56.3 $24.50 Processing Rationalisation $125.2 $5.80 $90.3 $39.30 Market benefits $63.3 $2.90 $67.9 $29.50 Total $229.1 $10.60 $214.5 $93.30 Overall Total $

63 $Million 500 Annual Savings after Rationalisation $million Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

64 Cost of Closure Capital costs assumptions The base data was sourced from the financial accounts for Alliance, Silver Fern Farms and ANZCO for the year ended 30 September The information was comprised of fixed assets, broken down into land, buildings and plant. The key assumptions were that land would recover 2/3 of its book value when sold, after allowing for selling costs and remediation and in some cases potential contamination. For plant we assumed 7.5% is recovered for use as spares or sale and 5% for buildings as net recovery. The total costs were then allocated between plants based on kill capacity. A 25% premium was added where there was on site fellmongery and a 20% premium if there was on site rendering. There are a range of plant ages but since plants were continually being upgraded no allowance was made for age except for Te Aroha which is new and quite expensive. The result of this exercise was that the total net asset base was apportioned between all plants. The big 3 companies represent 62% of the industry based on kills. The capital costs of plants outside the big 3 were calculated on the basis of the big 3. 64

65 Cost of Closure Redundancy assumptions Redundancy was calculated on standard agreement of 4 weeks for the 1st year of service and 2 weeks thereafter. Assumed working hours of 1,600 per year on average This assumes every meat worker is entitled to redundancy. We are aware some companies have agreements with no redundancy clause. Annual earnings were assessed at $41,450 per year based on average per hour earnings of $ This resulted in estimated pay-out is $18,890 per person. Summary of closure costs The estimated net capital cost of closures was $137,100,000. The estimated redundancy cost is $61,310,000. The overall cost is $198.4 million Based on 19 slaughter and cutting facilities to be closed (13 S/L and 6 Bf), the average cost is $10.5m per plant. In the Red Meat Strategy Report, the chairman of SFF was quoted as saying the cost would be $10m per plant. 65

66 Impact on the balance sheet Company Equity Sept 13 Plant w/off Redundancy Amended % w/off $m $m $m $m % Alliance 297 (25) (15) 257 (13.5) Silver Fern 320 (52) (25) 243 (24.0) Co-ops Combined 617 (77) (40) 500 (19.0) ANZCO 217 (29) (8) 180 (17.1) 66

67 Forecasted Sheep and Lamb kill 2019 Assumptions The big four players are Silver Fern Farms, Alliance Group, ANZCO and AFFCO The big four currently have approximately 76% of the market share The dairy industry to plateau within 10 years at approximately 2.6 million hectares, with the national herd increasing to approximately 7.5 million and some 6.5 million of these being in the milking herd. This in turn indicates a further loss of an estimated 4-5 million ewes (or su equivalents) are going to be lost from the red meat sector. This will drive the ewe numbers down to approximately million down from the 21.2 million ewes today. MIE predict that lamb numbers will plateau at between 14 and 16 million lambs. Assumed the big four will move from current 16 to 11 million (32% reduction) Assumed the small efficient players will move from the current 5 million to 4 million sheep and lambs (20% reduction). Methodology We have shown 2 scenarios 14 million sheep and lambs 14/15 and 10 million sheep and lambs. 67

68 Change in meat processing plants Company 68 Current Number of plants at 21 M Proposed number of plants at 14/15 m Proposed number of plants at 10m SFF ACL AFFCO ANZCO Ovation AMP Crusader Blue Sky Taylor Preston Prime Range Lean Meats Fresh Meats

69 69

70 70

71 Appendices Sheepmeats export volumes and values Ovine process flow Bovine process flow Livestock numbers by region (Statistics NZ) 71

72 72

73 Appendices - Typical ovine process flow 73

74 Appendices - Typical bovine process flow 74

75 Table 1 Livestock changes by region Selected livestock numbers (1)(2)(3) By region At 30 June Region Total sheep Total dairy cattle Total beef cattle Total deer % % % (000) change (000) change (000) change (000) % change Northland Auckland Waikato 2,660 1, ,669 1, Bay of Plenty Gisborne 1,825 1, Haw ke's Bay 3,624 3, Taranaki Manaw atu-wanganui 6,747 5, Wellington 1,822 1, Total North Island 18,542 15, ,613 3, ,148 2, Tasman Nelson C C 1 C C C C C Marlborough C C C West Coast Canterbury 7,167 5, , Otago 6,031 5, Southland 5,662 4, Chatham Islands C C 12 C C Total South Island 19,918 15, ,648 2, ,245 1, Total New Zealand 38,460 31, ,261 6, ,394 3, ,396 1, and 2012 w ere both agricultural production census years. Figures may not add to the totals due to rounding. Percentage changes are calculated on unrounded numbers. 75 Symbols: C confidential

76 76

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