New Bru nswick Regiona l Prof i les H ighlight s and Up date s. Northwest Economic Region

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1 New Bru nswick Regiona l Prof i les H ighlight s and Up date s Northwest Economic Region

2 New Brunswick Regional Profiles: Highlights and Updates Northwest Economic Region Province of New Brunswick PO 6000, Fredericton NB E3B 5H ISBN (PDF) E Prepared by the Labour Market Analysis Branch (Department of Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour). If you have questions or comments related to this product, please send an to:

3 Geography MADAWASKA Edmundston The Northwest Economic Region refers to Carleton, Victoria and Madawaska counties in northwestern New Brunswick. The region largely follows the St. John River Valley and is bordered on the north by the province of Quebec. In total, the Northwest region encompasses a land area of 12,280 square kilometers (17% of the province s geographical area). Northwest Economic Region VICTORIA CARLETON Settlement Patterns (Census 2011) The Northwest region is home to 80,362 people, 11 per cent of New Brunswick s population. The Northwest region has a population density of 6.5 persons/square kilometer. Carleton County (home to 34% of the region s population) is made up of small communities, including two towns, and one small Indian Reserve. Victoria County (home to 25% of the region s population) is made up of a number of small communities, the largest of which is Grand Falls, with a population of 5,705. Madawaska County (home to 42% of the region s population) is made up of a number of small communities as well as the city of Edmundston, which accounts for almost 20% of the region s population on its own. The Northwest region s population decreased slightly (-660 people, -0.8%) between 2006 and Historical settlement of these three counties is somewhat different than other regions, with a francophone population settled largely in Madawaska and northern Victoria counties, while an Anglophone population settled in southern Victoria and Carleton counties. Proximity of the communities, as well as economic conditions, has led to a bilingual population in this region (39%) that is proportionately larger than the provincial average (33.4%). The Northwest region has a larger segment of the population that speaks French only (18.0%) compared to New Brunswick (9.0%) and a smaller segment that speaks English only (43.8%) relative to the province (57.7%). Close to 40 per cent (38.2%) of the Northwest region s population report having knowledge of both English and French. The Northwest region encompasses a sizeable land mass with a relatively small population. A larger share of the Northwest region s population is bilingual and a larger share speaks French only, compared to the province as a whole. Northwest Economic Region 1

4 Age structure of the population (Census 2011) The age distribution for the relatively rural population of this region is similar to the age distribution for the province as a whole. Regional Population by Age: Northwest (Census Years) Change % Change yrs 30,740 29,785 26,670 23,510 21,340-2, % yrs 35,015 37,660 37,775 35,060 32,400-2, % yrs 6,950 7,050 7,865 10,560 13,060 2, % 65+ yrs 10,665 11,175 11,635 11,925 13,555 1, % Source: Statistics Canada , 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 Census Over 40 per cent of the Northwest region s population is of core-working age (25-54 years). Labour market entrants (15-24 years) account for 11 per cent of the population, while older workers (55-64) account for over 16 per cent of the population. Seniors (65+) account for 17 per cent of the Northwest region s population. In a province with an aging population, this region also shows a marked increase in both the older worker and senior age cohorts. Both the children and youth (0-24 years) population and the core-working age population have been declining over the past decade. The age structure of the region is important because age affects both the size of the labour force and the size of the tax base. Over 40 per cent of the Northwest region s population is part of the core-working age population; however, older cohorts have been increasing while the population of individuals under the age of 55 has been decreasing. 2 New Brunswick Regional Profiles: Highlights and Updates

5 Educational Attainment (Census ) The education levels supported by the economy in this region are somewhat lower than in the province as a whole. The levels of educational attainment reflect the range of employment opportunities in the Northwest region. There is a smaller share of persons with post-secondary qualifications (47.9%) and a larger share with no certificate, diploma or degree (23.9%) in the Northwest region, compared to New Brunswick (53.3% and 21.0% respectively). As is the case across the province, educational attainment is higher among younger cohorts, an indication that it is increasing over time. The most striking difference in the Northwest region compared to the province is the lower proportion of persons with either a college or a university credential (33.4% compared to 40.9%). Population 25 to 64 years with post-secondary qualifications by major field of study New Brunswick Southwest Total population 25 to , % 21, % Architecture, engineering, and related technologies 51,385 24% 5,390 25% Business, management and public administration 52,115 24% 5,000 23% Health, parks, recreation and fitness 31,305 14% 3,370 16% Education 18,235 8% 2,115 10% Personal, protective and transportation services 18,500 9% 1,920 9% Social and behavioural sciences and law 14,140 7% 1,180 5% Agriculture, natural resources and conservation 5,305 2% 870 4% Other fields of study 3 26,455 12% 1,810 8% Source: Statistics Canada Census Post-secondary qualifications by major field of study are fairly consistent with provincial average data. This distribution of credentials by field of study is common amidst a relatively diverse mix of employment opportunities. Almost half of all 25 to 64 year olds with post-secondary credentials in the Northwest region have a credential in the following field of study categories: Architecture, engineering, and related technologies; or Business, management and public administration. The Health, parks, recreation and fitness field of study accounts for another 16 per cent of post-secondary credentials in the Northwest region. One quarter (25%) of all credentials in the Northwest region is in the field of Architecture, engineering, and related technologies. 1 Data is being presented from the 2006 Census because it is the most recent data available. New data for this topic is scheduled to be released from the National Household Survey on June 26, Other fields of study includes: Humanities; Mathematics, computer and information sciences; Visual and performing arts, and communications technologies; Physical and life sciences and technologies; and Other fields of study. Northwest Economic Region 3

6 Labour Market (Labour Force Survey 3 ) The unemployment rate in the Northwest (10.8%) is slightly higher than the provincial average (10.2%). The Northwest region has an employment rate (55.5%) that is lower than New Brunswick (56.6%) and lower than the employment rate in the Southeast, Southwest and Central regions. Percentage (%) Labour Market Characteristics (2012) Unemployment rate Participation rate Employment rate New Brunswick Northwest Economic Region The participation rate in this region (62.2%) is also lower than the provincial rate (63.1%). The labour market observed in the Northwest region is somewhat weaker than the province as a whole and significantly weaker than the Southeast, Southwest and Central regions. This is likely a result of the rural location and the industrial composition of the region. The Northwest does however have a very stable labour market with consistent levels of employment and unemployment. Over the last six years ( ), the working age population has decreased (-2,400), with a concurrent drop in the labour force (-1,400). The only other region to have experienced a loss in their labour force over this period was the Northeast, while the Central region s levels remained unchanged. The number of employed persons has decreased significantly (-2,300), all of which were due to a decrease in full-time employment (there was a gain in part-time jobs but was not as significant as the decline of 3,200 full-time jobs). The number of unemployed persons increased (+900). There has also been an increase in the number of persons not participation in the labour market (+1,000) over the period. The data for recent years ( ) indicates a gradual creeping up in the unemployment rates across New Brunswick, including the Northwest region (+2.6 percentage points). In the Northwest, the most significant annual increase in the unemployment rate occurred between 2011 and Over the last six years ( ), the Northwest s employment rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points, slightly lower than the provincial decrease of 2.1 percentage points over the same period. After experiencing a significant drop in the employment rate between , the Northwest saw its employment rate increase by 1.2 percentage points between The participation rate in the Northwest region increased slightly between 2007 and 2012 (+0.1 of a percentage point), while the province as a whole decreased slightly (-0.4 of a percentage point). Similar to other regions in New Brunswick, the labour market in the Northwest region has taken a hit over the last six years and is not performing as well as the Southeast, Southwest and Central regions. Employment in the Northwest (35,700 in 2012) is lower than it has been historically (prior to 2007) as it continues to be affected by the recent downturn. 3 The Labour Force Survey data presented in this document are annual averages for New Brunswick Regional Profiles: Highlights and Updates

7 Occupations (Labour Force Survey) The occupational composition of employment in the Northwest is not as closely aligned to provincial averages as it is in the Southeast and Southwest regions. The top occupations for employment in the Northwest region (2012) are: Sales and service occupations (27.5%); Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (17.1%); and Business, finance and administrative occupations (16.5%). The occupational composition in the Northwest is more heavily weighted on Occupations unique to primary industry; Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities; Trades transport and equipment operators; and Sales and service occupations than the province as a whole. The occupational composition in the Northwest is less heavily weighted on Business, finance and administrative occupations; Heath occupations; Occupations in social science, education, government services and religion and Natural and applied science and related occupations than the province as a whole. Employment by Occupational Classification (2012): Northwest # of Persons % Sales and service occupations 9, % Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 6, % Business, finance and administrative occupations 5, % Management occupations 2, % Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 2, % Health occupations 2, % Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion 2, % Occupations unique to primary industry 1, % Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 1, % Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport % Total employed, all occupations 35, % Source: Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey, annual averages Employment in Sales and service occupations grew over the past six years ( ), while the other top occupations in the Northwest region performed poorly, due to the effects of the recent recession and postrecession period: Sales and service occupations increased by 500 jobs (+5.4%); Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations declined by 1,200 jobs (-16.4%); and Business, finance and administrative occupations dropped by 100 jobs (-1.7%). The occupational composition in the Northwest is more heavily weighted on occupations related to the goods-producing sector compared to the province as a whole. Northwest Economic Region 5

8 Industry (Labour Force Survey) Employment in the Northwest region is approximately 28 per cent in the goods-producing sector (2012), compared to approximately 21 per cent for the province overall. Balance between goods-producing and services-producing industries is widely varied across the province, from approximately 16 per cent to approximately 28 per cent of total employment. Almost three-quarters (72.5%) of employment in the Northwest region is in the services-producing sector. When public sector employment is excluded, the services-producing sector still accounts for 44.5 per cent of employment in the region (compared to 49% for New Brunswick overall). The public sector is still significant in the Northwest, accounting for 28 per cent of employment; however, it accounts for a similar share of jobs in the Northwest than the public sector does in the province as a whole (29.8%). The public sector has been highlighted in this analysis to show each region s relative reliance on public sector employment (in health, education and public administration), which requires public sector investment. Since the public sector and the private sector are inversely related, regions with higher shares of public sector employment have relatively less private sector employment relative to other areas. Since 2007, employment has dropped by 19 per cent in the goods-producing sector (-2,300 jobs) while also declining (-7.0% growth or -1,200 jobs) in the services-producing sector (excluding public sector). Over the same period, employment in the public sector has increased somewhat (by 1,200 jobs, +13.6%). Over the past 10 years ( ), employment in the Northwest region s goods-producing sector has decreased by 3,800 jobs (-27.9%), while also decreasing (by 1,700 jobs, -9.7%) in the services-producing sector (excluding public sector). In the public sector, employment has grown by 1,800 jobs (+22.0%) since Employment by Industry (2012): Northwest Economic Region Public sector 28.0% All other services-producing sector Trade 16.0% 16.2% Transportation and warehousing Accommodation and food services All other goods-producing sector 6.4% 6.2% 6.2% Manufacturing Construction 5.0% 16.0% Note: The All other goods-producing sector includes: Agriculture; and Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas. The All other services-producing sector includes: Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing; Professional, scientific and technical; Business, building and other support services; Information, culture and recreation; and other services. The Public sector is comprised of employment from Healthcare and social assistance; Education services; and Public administration. Almost 45 per cent of all employment in the Northwest region is found in the other servicesproducing sector (excluding public sector), while the rest is split evenly between the goods-producing sector and the public sector. Some of the most significant industries in the Northwest (with regards to employment levels) are: Trade, Manufacturing and Transportation and warehousing. 6 New Brunswick Regional Profiles: Highlights and Updates

9 Income (Census ) Average individual income levels in this region are slightly lower than provincial averages. Average employment income of individuals (full-year and full-time) in the Northwest is $36,841, compared to $41,412 for New Brunswick. The Northwest region has a higher share of individuals with income of less than $20,000 and those with income between $20,000 and $40,000, compared to New Brunswick. The Northwest region has a lower share of individuals with income in the higher categories; between $40,000-$59,999 or above $60,000. Average 2005 Employment Income (Individuals 15+) New Brunswick Northwest Average employment income (total) $28,353 $26,203 Average employment income: worked full- year and full-time $41,412 $36,841 Average employment income: worked-part year or part-time $16,846 $16,752 Source: Statistics Canada Census Average family income levels in the Northwest region ($58,053) are slightly lower than for New Brunswick as a whole ($63,913). The Northwest region has a larger share of families with income of less than $50,000 and a lower share of families with income of $90,000 or more. The Northwest region has a higher share of income from employment (74.7%), and a slightly higher share from government transfers (15.4%) compared to the province as a whole. The Northwest region has a lower share of income from other sources (10.0%). The Northwest region has a lower prevalence of low-income families (6.9%), (according to the low income after-tax cut-offs 5 (LICO-AT)) compared to the province as a whole (7.3%). The lower prevalence of low-income families may be a result of the consistent labour market in the Northwest region. Average income for both individuals and families in the Northwest region is lower than average income in New Brunswick overall. 4 Data is being presented from the 2006 Census because it is the most recent data available. New data for this topic is scheduled to be released from the National Household Survey on August 14, Refers to the position of an economic family or a person 15 years of age and over in relation to Statistics Canada s low income aftertax cut-offs (LICO-AT). The low income after-tax cut-offs are set at after-tax income levels, differentiated by size of family and area of residence, where families spend 20 percentage points more of their after-tax income than the average family on food, shelter and clothing. Northwest Economic Region 7

10 Major Employers (Canadian business patterns, June 2012) There are 3,020 employers 6 in the Northwest region (2011). The vast majority (97%) of employers in this region have small enterprises (1-49 employees). There are less than 20 employers that have large operations which employ 200 or more people, less than one per cent of total employers in the region. Employers by size (2011): Northwest Economic Region 2.7% 0.5% Small (1-49) Medium (50-199) 96.9% Large (200+) Some of the largest employers in the Northwest region (2011) are: McCain Foods Ltd. Vitalité Health Network Anglophone West School District Twin River Papers 6 There were an additional 1,800 employers in the Northwest region in 2011 that were classified as Indeterminate. The establishments in the Indeterminate category do not maintain an employee payroll, but may have a workforce which consists of contracted workers, family members or business owners. However, the Business Register does not have this information available, and has therefore assigned the establishments to an Indeterminate category. This category also includes employers who did not have employees in the last 12 months. 8 New Brunswick Regional Profiles: Highlights and Updates

11 Appendix: Additional information about the Northwest Economic Region Migration (Statistics Canada: Demography Division 7 ) Since , the Northwest region has experienced negative net migration, with more people leaving the region than coming to it. This holds true among various age groups, including: labour market entrants (15-24 years), and the core working age population (25-54 years). Older workers and seniors had mixed annual net migration with a small number of people coming to the region in some years and a small number of people leaving (on a net basis) in other years. In , the Northwest region had a net decrease of almost 500 people going to other regions in the province. The Northwest region has had negative net intra-provincial migration since In , the Northwest region had a net decrease of 243 people, going to other provinces. The Northwest region has had negative net inter-provincial migration since In , the Northwest region had net positive international migration of almost 100 people. Net international migration has been positive in the Northwest since Employment Insurance (EI) Beneficiaries (Service Canada/HRSDC 2011) The most common occupations where employment insurance beneficiaries are found reflect some of the most common occupations found in the region, including: Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (30.5%); and Sales and service occupations (19.8%). Over 10 per cent of New Brunswick s EI beneficiaries at the highest skill level (e.g. university education) are in the Northwest region. The Northwest region accounts for over 11 per cent of New Brunswick s EI beneficiaries at the lowest skill level. Occupations unique to primary industry had a notably larger proportion of EI beneficiaries in the Northwest region compared to New Brunswick overall, while Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities had a notably smaller proportion of EI beneficiaries in the Northwest region. 7 Data is based on the period of July 1 of one year to June 30 of the following year is the year in which this data first became available. Northwest Economic Region 9