THE SOUTH AMERICAN WIPES MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES

Transcription

1 Rick Jezzi A.D. Jezzi & Associates, LLC Atlanta, GA June 13, 2011 THE SOUTH AMERICAN WIPES MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES

2 Agenda South American Demographics South American Economics South American Hygiene Market and Wipe Overview Trends, Opportunities and Challenges 2

3 Demographics of Latin America Latin America= Mexico + Central America + Caribbean+South America Population: 585 Million SA is Spanish speaking except for: Brazil Guyanas Key Groups= Andean Pact Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru Mercosur/Southern Cone Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay Chile

4 2010 Population South America Pos Country Population 1 Brazil* 190,732,694 3 Colombia* 45,787,000 4 Argentina* 40,091,359 Population Growth: 431MM by 2015 ~1.8% cagr 5 Peru 29,461,933 6 Venezuela* 29,059,000 7 Chile* 17,173,600 9 Ecuador 14,307, Bolivia 10,426, Bolivia 6,460, Uruguay 3,356, Guyanas 1,700,000 Total S. America 394,790, % 0.9% 0.4% Colombia 11.6% 10.4% 6.8% 3.7% 7.5% 2.5% 1.8% 4.2% Venezuela Ecuador Peru Bolivia Paraguay Chile Argentina Brazil Uruguay Guyanas 4

5 Latin American Demographic Split 6.9% Mexico 7.4% 66.8% 33.2% Central America Caribbean 18.8% 33.6% RofSouth America Brazil 5

6 Population Demographics Baby Population (0 4) decreasing 1% Less influence of religious principles Wider birth control methods employed More working women Women population (15 49) increasing +1% Adult Population ( 65+) increasing +4% 6

7 SA Economies Rank in world Country GDP 8 Brazil $2,181,039 million 27 Venezuela $387,295 million 30 Argentina $340,065 million 36 Colombia $228,836 million 46 Chile $161,781 million 51 Peru* $126,766 million 65 Ecuador $57,303 million 84 Uruguay $31,528 million 99 Bolivia $17,627 million 103 Paraguay $14,668 million 151 Suriname $2,962 million 153 Guyana $2,024 million Source: CIA World Factbook

8 GDP Split in South America 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 2% 1% 0.1% Brazil 4% Venezuela Argentina 6% 5% 10% 61% 11% Colombia Chile Peru Ecuador Uruguay Bolivia Paraguay Suriname Guyana 8

9 Economic Growth South America will grow on an aggregate at ~5.0% cagr from 2010 to 2015 Avg. PPP/capita ~$12,500 in 2015 NA/WE/Japan~ $30 46M/yr in 2009 $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $ 2015 Projections 9

10 Baby Diaper Market Baby diaper market penetration in region ~4 5% cagr Many players in the entire region 6% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 5% 3% 16% Market Share Distribution 25% 33% A All Others C D E F G H I J K 10

11 Feminine Care Market Market growth projected also at ~4 5% cagr for next 5 years Pantyliner Market Shares 6% 15% 32% 22% 25% A AllOthers B C D 19% 7% 2% 22% A AllOthers 20% 30% B C D E Fewer participants in category than diapers Fem Pad Market Shares 11

12 Adult Care Market Still Embryonic Growing at ~6.5% cagr per year Many smaller suppliers Adult Incontinence Market Shares 31% 11% 35% A B C 20% D AllOthers 3% 12

13 Baby Wipe Market Revenue Shares BRAZIL 22% 25% A B 8% C 15% 30% C All Other ~25 other companies 13

14 Baby Wipes South America Approximately 55 60% of volume (sqm) is carded and spunmelt, rest is now spunlace ~20 gsm for TBCW and Spunmelt ~ 40 gsm for spunlace 65/70% PET: 35/30% Viscose Currently ~50% of diaper buyers buy baby wipes Kimberly Clark imports coform (US & UK) Converts in Brazil and Colombia 48 gsm for coform Average package counts ~50 wipes Multi nationals control ~70% of market MT of NW/year % 60.1% Spunlace OtherNW 7,200 MT/year 14

15 Pre Moistened Baby Wipes SA Approximately 55 60% of volume is carded and spunmelt, rest is now spunlace ~20 gsm for TBCW and Spunmelt ~ 40 gsm for spunlace Kimberly Clark imports coform (US & UK) Converts in Brazil and Colombia 48 gsm for coform Average package counts ~50 wipes Multi nationals control ~70% of market 15

16 Market Penetration by Categories for South American Region Category Market Penetration 2010 Market Penetration 2015 Feminine Care 1 65% 77% Baby Diapers 5 43% 50% Adult Incontinence 1 30% 37% Baby Wipes 5 ~20% ~26% 16

17 60.0% Shift in Brazilian Economic Class Growth 53.0% 42.4% 30.2% 18.2% 16.4% 13.7% 11.0% 15.1% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Year Class AB $R>4,808 Class C $R 1,115 to 4,808 Class D $R 804 to 1,115 Class E $R <804 17

18 Demand Drivers in Brazil Increasing Purchasing Power of C & D income Classes Greater participation of women in the labor market Cultural emphasis on personal and aesthetic treatments 36 million people will move up to Classes A, B and C until million people still left in poverty since

19 Wipes Opportunities Pre moistened baby wipes is leading market penetration in wipes segment Personal care wipes and cosmetic wipes will grow at close to 2x PPP growth 2 for a while Cosmetics and personal care type products grew at ~15% in 2008 to 2011 period Household wipes will be slow in growing Cultural mindset We have maids! 19

20 Major Players in Personal Care Wipes 20

21 Store Shelves in Class A Supermarket 21

22 Major Presence Spunlace Wipes for Industrial Applications DuPont Sontara Surface Preparation System DuPont Sontara PrintClean DuPont Sontara PrintMaster DuPont Sontara Aerospace Grade Wipes DuPont Sontara Window Wipes Sontara MicroPure (clean room) DuPont Sontara ProClean DuPont Sontara FS OBER S.A. Technical Wipes Institutional Institutional 22

23 Non Woven Supplier Chain USA CHINA Spunmelt: PGI Spunmelt: Fitesa Carded: InversionesCominIndustria Feltrex Spunmelt Providencia Fitesa Spunmelt: PGI Softbond Carded: Filltex Polystar Trisoft Spunlace: Dupont Ober Ahlstrom WE & INDIA 36% of wipes NW are still being imported from outside the region 23

24 NonWoven Supply Chain Much of the wipes material is still imported Intra South America EXIM Brazil exporting spunlace Brazil much self sufficient in Spunmelt Providencia Fitesa PGI controls rest of South America Total Delivered Cost is key Tariff and freight key drivers Some spunlace imports from India,China, Europe, USA Converted Baby Wipes imported from various countries and Exported from Brazil 24

25 Trends Market Consolidation Merging or disappearance of smaller competitors Consolidation to mass merchandising channels in most countries As a result industry is becoming more professional Standardization of products Technology transfer from NA to SA Economy type products slowly evolving to main line designs 3 tiers to 2 tier system Value equation still very high lower basis weights /smaller counts More regional designs not totally following global models IP sensitivities just beginning to surface Sustainability Movement Brazil becoming a technology pole for green and bio degradable polymers Braskem (green PE) Dow Chemical (green PE) PHB, Industrial (polyhydroxyalkanoates) Solvay Br (green PVC) Low cost bio feedstock availability 25

26 Opportunities Continuing Growth Market for next ~15 years or so Mexico Brazil FTA Opportunity in expansion of non woven supplier base and capacity both in Brazil and rest of South America Introduction of air laid nonwoven manufacturing in region Growth over time in other wipe applications outside of hygiene Base for renewable polymer usage and manufacture of renewable resource products 26

27 Challenges Political Changes in the political climate from left to right and back again will continue Labor unions increasing economic and political control of power in Argentina Conflict between Colombia and Venezuela Venezuelan oil crisis and government media control Should not decrease on going growth rates Economical Historically an economic roller coaster, but continuing to tick up Exchange rates have currently been stable but much volatile history precedes them Vulnerability to international markets Business Complexity in some Countries (Brazil) Tax system Logistics Cultural business practices 27

28 References 1)The Hygiene Market in South America Will the Growth Continue?, Roland Dominguez PGI LA Insight 2010, Charlotte, NC 2)Natura, Brasil Goldman Sachs Presentation, NYC, May, ) 4)Daviso Industrias e Comercio, S.A., Sao Paulo, Brazil 5)A.D Jezzi & Associates, LLC 28

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