Outlook on Philippines Infrastructure Sector (perspective from Japan)

Transcription

1 Outlook on Philippines Infrastructure Sector (perspective from Japan) Oct 2014 Philippine Economic Briefing in Japan Shangri-La Hotel Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Southeast Asia and Pacific Department Director General Hidetoshi Irigaki

2 Table of Contents 1. JICA Assistance in brief 2. Priority Issues in the Philippines Infrastructure Sector 3. Solutions Japan can potentially provide (1) Reducing Traffic congestion in Mega Manila (2) Improving Disaster Resilience (3) Increasing Energy Efficiency (4) Maximizing Value-for-Money (through PPPs) 2

3 1. JICA Assistance in brief Japanese ODA Loan: Current (as of JFY2013): billion JPY (Approved) billion JPY (Disbursed) - 18 ongoing projects Cumulative ( ): trillion JPY (approved) - Sector diversification is as follows; Grant Aid: Current (JFY2013): billion JPY 10 ongoing projects:water & sewerage, electricity, disaster risk prevention, bridge, human resource development, etc. Cumulative (since 1971): billion JPY Technical Assistance: Current (JFY2013): 5.2 billion JPY 55 ongoing projects: Infrastructure Planning & Implementation, Investment Promotion, Agriculture, Health, Peace building, etc Cumulative(since 1971): billion JPY Volunteer: Current (JFY2013): 50 volunteers Cumulative(since 1971): 1,554 volunteers 3

4 1. JICA Assistance in brief Priority Areas Development Issue Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth through the Acceleration of Investment Promotion Overcoming Vulnerability Infrastructure Development for Sustainable Economic Growth Investment Climate Improvement Disaster Risk Mitigation & Management Food Security Safety Net Peace and Development in Mindanao Peace and Development in Mindanao Cross cutting issues Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation 4

5 2. Priority Issues in the Philippines Infrastructure Sector Reducing Traffic congestion in Mega Manila Policy Level: Mega Manila Roadmap Project Level: Commuter Rail, Subway, Rapid Construction Methods, etc Improving Disaster Resilience Policy Level: The Flood Management Master Plan Project Level: Flood risk management projects in Pasig Marikina River Channel and Cavite Province Increasing Energy Efficiency Policy Level: Energy mix policy, Positioning of Natural Gas Project Level: Natural Gas Value chain, regulatory framework improvement, etc Maximizing Value-for-Money (through PPPs) Policy Level: Linking Master Planning with project preparation, Risk Management Project Level: PPP Technical Assistance 5

6 3. Solutions Japan can potentially provide (1) Reducing Traffic Congestion in Mega Manila (1) How to balance the policy targets; Adequate planning and sequential/strategic implementation; network analysis; Enhancing intermodal connectivity; TOD considerations; Life cycle cost management (2) How to sequence individual projects in accordance with policy priorities? How best to achieve multimodal compatibility? Policy/Sectoral Level Analysis Adequate Planning and Sequential /Strategic Implementation Network Analysis Enhancing Inter-Modal Connectivity TOD Considerations Life Cycle Cost Management Project Level Analysis Geographical Conditions Environmental and Social Considerations Engineering Considerations Assistance Tools (Finance, TA, Study) Japanese Experience, Technology, and Know-hows Policy: Adequate planning; network analysis; inter-modal connectivity; integration with urban planning; Efficient O&M via life cycle cost management Technology: Mass transit system; commuter rail; subway system; high-speed train; bus rapid transit system; monorail; linear motor car; people mover; tunnel construction; Seismic bridge design Know-hows: Efficient railway operation; safety measures; disaster risk reduction & prevention measures; TOD good practices; tunnel O&M 6

7 3. Solutions Japan can potentially provide (1) Reducing Traffic Congestion in Mega Manila Envisioning a Sustainable Transport Network for Mega Manila in 2030 From radial/circumferential network to mesh network From road based transportation to multi-modal transportation Compatibility with urban development planning strategy North South Commuter Railway (For L/A in 2015) LRT-2 West Extension (For L/A in 2015) New growth center New growth center C3 Missing Link Construction (Under F/S Preparation) LRT-2 East Extension (Under Implementation) Construction of Yamate Tunnel Tokyo Metro (Marunouchi Line) Commuter rail (Odakyu Line) Priority Bridges Seismic Design Lambingan Bridge Guadalupe Bridge (Under F/S Preparation) Tutuban Station Re- Development (For Bid-out in 2015) Connector Road (For NEDA Approval) New growth center Metro Manila Interchange (VI) EDSA/Roosevelt Ave/Congressional Ave. EDSA West Ave./North Ave./Mindanao Ave. C-5/Green Meadows/Acropolis-Calle Industria (For L/A in 2014) Mega Manila Subway (For procurement) LRT-1 Cavite Extension (Under Implementation) Station plaza (interchange facilities) (Kawasaki) 7

8 3. Solutions Japan can potentially provide (2) Improving Disaster Resilience (1) How to balance the policy targets; Disaster reduction and prevention + recovery and reconstruction in time of disaster, Flood risk control + resettlement of people, Short-term recovery of livelihood + long term reconstruction after disaster Policy/Sectoral Level Analysis The Flood Management Master Plan for Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas Project Level Analysis Natural and Geographical Conditions Project Site Technical Engineering Perspective Environmental and Social Considerations Hazardous Levels Assistance Tools (Finance, TA, Study) Japanese Experience, Technology, and Know-hows Policy: Build Back Better concept, No Build Zone concept, establishment of river boundaries, improving the design levels, Disaster Risk Finance, etc Technology: Construction methods in narrow areas, Soil improvement, concept of constructing retarding basins, Know-hows: Education for disaster risk reduction and prevention, disaster emergency relief, formulation of recovery and reconstruction plans, hydrological data management and utilization, etc 8

9 3. Current Status and Future Prospect of Assistance (2) Improving Disaster Resilience Policy Actions Structural Measures Emergency Relief Non Structural Measures Flood Control Forecasting & Warning System Disaster Recovery & Reconstruction National/Regional Planinng

10 3. Solutions Japan can potentially provide (3) Improving Energy Efficiency (1) How to balance the policy targets; Energy Security, Electricity Supply Sufficiency + Reliability, Electricity Cost Reduction, Energy Efficiency, Low Carbon (2) How to make plans into plants? Policy/Sectoral Level Analysis Energy Mix Regulatory Framework Project Level Analysis Geographical Conditions Environmental and Social Considerations Project Site Technical Engineering Perspective Assistance Tools (Finance, TA, Study) Japanese Experience, Technology, and Know-hows Policy: Energy Mix Policy and its implementation, Deregulation, Natural Gas Industry Policy, etc Technology: Energy Efficient Gas Turbines, Cogeneration, Heat pump; seismic design, corrosion resistance of gas pipelines; environmentally-friendly mini-hydro PPT (rivers, canals) Know-hows: Integrated operation and maintenance of Gas Companies, Safety Measures 10

11 3. Solutions Japan can potentially provide (3) Increasing Energy Efficiency Design Seismic design Constr uction Seismic Steel Pipes Automatic welding technology O&M Corrosion monitoring system central monitoring system (SCADA); Safety measures 11

12 3. Solutions Japan can potentially provide (4) Maximizing Value-for-Money (through PPPs) (1) How to integrate national, regional, sectoral planning with actual project investment plans? (2) How to prioritize projects? (3) How to distinguish PPP and non-ppp projects? Policy/Sectoral Level Analysis Laws, Rules and Regulations enhance transparency and competition Maximize VFM National, Sectoral/ Regional Planning Budgeting Plans Project Level Analysis Technical Analysis (including E&S) Financial Analysis (including PPP scheme) Developmental Effect (Perspective of the beneficiaries) Investor Appetite Assistance Tools (Finance, TA, Study) Japanese Experience, Technology, and Know-hows Policy: Spatial Planning, Long-term investment plans, Privatization of Road, Rail, Energy Public Companies, PFI Law Know-hows: VFM Calculation and evaluation, Integrated operation and maintenance of Infra Companies; (Rail: Off rail business and land development); (Hospital: Efficient inventory management IT system) 12

13 Level of Public Expenditure Service Level 3. Solutions Japan can potentially provide (4) Maximizing Value-for-Money (through PPPs) Concept Case1: Private to lower cost Case2: Private to improve service level Risk Management Debt Interest O&M Construc tion Risk Manag t Margin Debt Interest EPC and O&M VFM PSC* PFI-LCC** PSC* PFI-LCC** VFM Improvement of Service Level * Public Service Comparator ** Life Cycle Cost Results (Cumulative PFIs Approved in Japan) Results (Cumulative VFM achieved) Status as of Sep 2013 Out of 408 projects that have been financially closed, of which the total project cost amount to 4 trillion 282 billion JPY achieved 795 billion JPY of VFM Major source of VFM include: efficient risk allocation, better project and quality management performance contract (incentive mechanism) competitive bidding operational efficiency from integrated management 13

14 3. Solutions Japan can potentially provide (4) Maximizing Value-for-Money (through PPPs) Japan Fund Policy Level Capacity Development for Project Due Diligence Providing technical assistance to enhance efficient and sound due diligence of PPP projects through NEDA ICC Process (especially at approval stage) Oversight Agencies: DOF, NEDA, DBM PPP Centre Project Manager (capacity development) DOTC DPWH DOE DOH tbc Pilot Project Pilot Project Pilot Project Pilot Project Pilot Project Policy Level (1) Provide financing for GOP support mechanism for PPP financing Contribute by building up on the findings from the previous two studies on the PPP institutions relative to covering contingent risks financially. Project Level (1) Support PPP Project Selection Assist strategic use of integrated masterplans for identification and prioritisation of candidate PPP projects (2) Capacity Development for Project Formulation by IAs Hands-on training for IAs on 1 financial modeling, 2risk allocation, 3strengthening engineering analysis in project formulation to increase confidence in potential bidders Provide a comprehensive, custom made advisory services in wide range of areas related to PPP project formulation JICA HQ and other supporting agencies JICA Expert Team Project Manager PPP Specialist Finance Specialist, etc Rail Sector Specialist Water and Sewerage Sector Specialist Energy Sector Specialist Hospital O&M services specialist tbc