The Vienna Initiative

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1 The Vienna Initiative KNF Conference on Household Lending Warsaw, October 20, 2010 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe

2 The problem Parent Banks severely affected by the crisis 2

3 European banks badly affected 3 (billions of US$) 1, United States Euro Area United Kingdom Other Mature Europe Realized writedowns/loss provisions (2007q2-2009q4) Expected additional writedowns/loss provisions (2010q1-2010q4) Tier1/RWA capital ratio end-2009 (right scale) Asia Source: IMF, Global Financial Markets (April 2010) percent

4 The problem Parent Banks severely affected by the crisis CEE worst hit region in crisis Risk of capital outflows worsening outlook 4

5 5 Deleveraging expected to follow previous crises Foreign Banks Exposure in relation to GDP (peak = 100) Asia (Sep 1997) t-20 t-15 t-10 t-5 t t+5 t+10 t+15 t+20 t+25 t+30 Source: BIS; IMF, International Financial Statistics Emerging Europe (Jun 2008) Latin America (Dec 1983)

6 BIS Cross-Border Bank Flows, 2009Q3 to 2010Q1 (percent of GDP) Credit growth is related to cross-border flows Cross-border bank deleveraging 8 Central and Eastern Europe Emerging markets and other countries 4 Poland 0-4 Hungary Ukraine Russia Czech Romania Croatia Bulgaria Turkey 6-8 Estonia Lithuania Latvia Real Growth in Credit to the Private Sector, 2009Q3 to 2010Q1 (percent)

7 Bank flows threatened balance of payments External positions of reporting banks (USD billions, estimated exchange rate adjusted changes) Excludes: Russia, Turkey -30 Other Czech Rep. Ukraine Romania Hungary Poland Baltics Serbia Latvia B&H Vienna Initiative 7 Source: BIS

8 Vienna initiative structure Vienna Initiative (VI) (Launched Jan. 09) Joint IFI Initiative European Bank Coordination Initiative (EBCI) 8

9 Participants in Vienna Initiative MDBs (World Bank, EBRD, EIB) and IMF European Union and ECB Program countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary, Latvia, Romania, Serbia (Central Banks and supervisors) Home country supervisors (Austria, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Greece) Foreign banks active in country 9

10 Vienna initiative structure Vienna Initiative (VI) (Launched Jan. 09) Joint IFI Initiative European Bank Coordination Initiative (EBCI) EBRD, World Bank, EIB Financial Assistance to strengthen banks in the region 10

11 Commitments and Delivery under Joint IFI Action Plan Commitments Available as of end-august 2010 Of which: signed as of end-august 2010 EBRD EIB World Bank Group TOTAL Source: EBRD

12 Vienna initiative structure Vienna Initiative (VI) (Launched Jan. 09) Joint IFI Initiative European Bank Coordination Initiative (EBCI) EBRD, World Bank, EIB Financial Assistance to strengthen banks in the region Country Meetings Romania Serbia Hungary Bosnia & Herzegovina Latvia (Ukraine) Full Forum Meetings Policy Discussions 12 Private Sector Involvement (PSI)

13 Country Meetings Informal and voluntary In support of IMF arrangements Exposure commitments (PSI) Capitalization commitments based on stress tests Meetings to agree on adjustments to commitments 13

14 Experience with PSI commitment Bosnia and Herzegovina Hungary Latvia Romania Target Maintain at end 2008 Maintain overall exposure Maintain overall exposure Maintain at end - March 2009 Adjustment % Maintain at 95% 114% Actual (end 2010) - 87% of end 2008 level Maintain at 95% 99.5% Serbia Maintain at end 2008 Maintain at 80% effective April % 14

15 Exposure agreements have been generally effective External positions of reporting banks (estimated exchange rate adjusted changes as percent of December 2008 volume) Bosnia and Herzegovina Hungary Latvia Romania Serbia (rhs) Source: BIS

16 Post-crisis deleveraging has been modest Foreign Banks Exposure in relation to GDP (peak = 100) Asia (Sep 1997) Emerging Europe (Jun 2008) Latin America (Dec 1983) t-20 t-15 t-10 t-5 t t+5 t+10 t+15 t+20 t+25 t Source: BIS; IMF, International Financial Statistics

17 Bank outflows have stabilized for VI and other countries in the region External positions of reporting banks (USD billions, estimated exchange rate adjusted changes) 50 Other Poland Czech Rep. Baltics Ukraine Serbia Romania Latvia Hungary B&H Excludes: Russia, Turkey -30 Vienna Initiative 17 Source: BIS

18 Vienna initiative structure Vienna Initiative (VI) (Launched Jan. 09) Joint IFI Initiative European Bank Coordination Initiative (EBCI) EBRD, World Bank, EIB Financial Assistance to strengthen banks in the region Country Meetings Romania Serbia Hungary Bosnia & Herzegovina Latvia (Ukraine) Full Forum Meetings Policy Discussions Working Group Working Group 18 Private Sector Involvement (PSI) Local currency capital markets Absorption of EU structural funds

19 Working Group on development of local currency capital markets Foreign exchange loans created serious vulnerabilities Current account deficits financed by banking flows in foreign exchange Change strategy to rely on domestic savings Discourage foreign exchange lending and promote local currency sourcing 19 Working Group with participation of banks, supervisors, and Hungary, Romania, and Serbia to report in November

20 Challenges ahead Uncertainties about parents strength Impact of financial sector taxation Duration of adjustment and external support Developing Vienna Initiative as forum for policy discussions 20

21 21 Thank you!

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