Scottish Primary Food and Drink Produce Processed in Scotland

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1 Scottish Primary Food and Drink Produce Processed in Scotland Scottish Government Rural and Environment Research and Analysis Directorate Eszter Sandor DTZ One Edinburgh Quay 133 Fountainbridge Edinburgh EH3 9QG May 2008

2 Contents 1. Introduction Background to the research Overview of study method Acknowledgements Report Structure 7 2. Destination and Origin Purchases of Processors Destination of sales of Scottish primary produce Origin of purchases of primary produce by processing sector Destination of sales and output of Scottish-processed food and drink Input-Output Summary Benchmarking Scotland against other European countries Denmark Finland Norway Ireland Sweden Benchmarking Summary Processor Survey Survey methodology Profile of respondents Destination of Scottish processed food Origin of inputs of processors Market conditions Inputs and the way they are used Challenges for businesses Conclusions and Recommendations Conclusions Recommendations for further development 54 Appendices 56 APPENDIX A: Technical Appendix 56 APPENDIX B: Destinations of Scottish Primary Produce Sales in APPENDIX C: Processor Survey Questionnaire 63

3 Executive Summary DTZ was commissioned by the Scottish Government s Rural and Environment Research and Analysis Directorate (RERAD) to conduct research into the levels of processing of primary produce in Scotland. The study was commissioned in February 2008 and completed in June It followed on from a 2007 study of Scottish processing. The aims of the research were: To understand the opportunities to add value to food and drink processing in Scotland Assessment of trends in the processing sector To provide an evidence base to inform future policy Throughout this study the term primary sector includes the agriculture, fishing and fish farming sectors, with primary produce being the outputs from these sectors. The study methodology had three main components: Input-Output analysis and modelling of primary produce sales and purchases Benchmarking of the Scottish situation with ten other countries. A survey of 250 companies in the Scottish food and drink processing sector. The study considered who are the buyers of Scottish Primary Produce. Total sales of primary produce grew by 10% to 3.3 Billion from 2003 to Around 93% of sales of primary produce are accounted for by four purchasing groups: Scottish food processing companies (24% - down 2% on 2003); Scottish households (23% - down 1%) 1 ; the Scottish primary produce sector (18% - down 2%); and non-scottish purchasers (30% - up 4%) including the rest of the UK and overseas. Non-Scottish purchasers have increased their purchasers at the expense of Scottish purchasers including processors. Although the percentage share of Scottish purchasers has gone down, absolute values have gone up slightly. Figure 1 below shows purchases of primary produce by these four groups from all origins. The area outside the circle is non-scottish purchases. This will include purchases of produce not available from Scotland 2. The Scottish hotels and restaurant sector has increased its share of purchase from within Scotland highlighting the importance of provenance. 1 Sales to households may be made via the retail or wholesale sectors 2 Total primary produce purchases by non-scottish purchases is not shown in its entirety, as this is too large for the diagram. The Scottish share of rest of UK and rest of world purchases of primary produce is less than 0.1% Page 1

4 For Scottish purchasers, around a third of the primary produce they purchase is from non- Scottish sources. Figure 1 Purchases of primary produce by main Scottish purchasing groups Source: Scottish Input-Output Tables, The study considered the destinations of Scottish-processed food and drink Scottish food and drink processors sell 21% of their output within Scotland, 42% to the rest of the UK, and 37% outside the UK. Sales within Scotland are highest in the dairy sector (59%), followed by soft drinks (55%) and beer brewing (44%). Foreign exports (non-uk) are highest in the spirits and wines sub-sector (89%) and lowest in the soft drinks sector (2%). The bulk of outputs of the Scottish food and drink processing sector are sold to consumers via retailers, highlighting the fact that there is little further processing of this material. The value of sales to other processors is generally small with the obvious exceptions of products which are ingredients including oils and fats, and processed grains e.g. flour. Page 2

5 The findings on sales of primary produce were benchmarked against other EU countries, which when added to last year s countries provides a benchmark of ten countries A summary of the analysis is presented below which highlights the key differences between countries and Scotland s interdependence with the rest of the UK: Table 1 Destinations of primary produce for benchmark countries Country Value of domestic primary produce sales (2004 billion) Domestic processors Domestic primary producers % sold to Domestic households Domestic hotels & restaurants All nondomestic purchasers Other domestic sectors Scotland Wales UK Ireland Denmark Norway Sweden Finland Poland Austria Italy Average Scotland has a significantly lower rate of primary produce processed domestically at 24%. On average, 43% of primary produce is processed domestically while Norway (57%), Denmark (59%) and Ireland (60%) are all higher. These findings reflect the concentration of indigenous processing in Denmark and Ireland contrasted with the interdependence of Scotland, England and Wales. In addition, the ability of UK companies to switch Scottish produce to different sites within the UK is a factor. The findings also reflect the fact that the bulk of the UK population is in the south east of England and the natural flow of primary and processed produce throughout the UK is southwards. Scotland is also above average (at 23%) in sales to domestic households, with only the UK (25%) and Poland having a higher level of 28%. This figure includes sales through retailers and highlights that much Scottish primary produce requires little in the way of processing. This may, in part, be due to differences in culture and tradition between Scotland (and the UK) and the benchmark countries and does not necessarily imply differences between the strengths of primary producers. There is more potential to sell to the Scottish hotel and restaurant sector, particularly given the example of Italy at 4% of 41 Bn. Page 3

6 The final stage of the research was a survey of 250 food and drink processors. Of the companies surveyed 64% (55% last year) were small; 23% (27% last year) medium; and 13% (18% last year) large. Survey results were weighted by company size to reflect the Scottish situation overall. Only weighted results are reported in the Executive Summary, while both weighted and unweighted results are shown in the main report. The survey results highlight that the focus of large players tends to be on volume products, but that there is an increasing focus on niche markets (see Figure 4.2). Of niche markets, the most important is the High quality/premium sector at two thirds followed by organic at 10% and healthy at 7% ( Figure 4.3). Over half of processors have developed their own brands with 20% also involved in ownlabel and a quarter suggesting both are important. Brand building is clearly important to Scottish processors. Almost half of processors sales are to Scotland with 41% to the rest of the UK, the balance being exports (15%). The relatively low level of exports may reflect unfavourable exchange rates to the eurozone and the fact that the UK provides a ready market on the doorstep. Over half of processors have no further processing of their produce with meat and fish processors most likely to have their output used for further processing. Just over a quarter of processors buy all raw materials from Scotland while a further quarter buy between 0-25% from Scotland. Three quarters of Scottish produce bought by processors is unprocessed. Product origin is important for three quarters of processors, with two thirds of these processors saying that their customers prefer to buy Scottish produce. Encouraging processors to buy more Scottish product requires improved availability. However, it has got harder to source Scottish produce during the year with 57% recording availability as the main problem followed by price (25%). 85% of processors believe the situation is worsening or staying the same. Of these, the meat sector is worst affected. Demand for quality is the main factor driving markets followed by price. Since last year price has increased in importance. Only 1% of processors are 100% certified organic. About a third produce 1-25% of their total output as organic with 39% considering increasing organic output. Two thirds of processors produce no certified organic outputs. In sourcing organic inputs, two thirds of processors do not find it difficult to source organic produce, suggesting that factors other than availability are the main barriers to increasing organic production. Page 4

7 Businesses identified a range of different challenges in the marketplace with competition being the most cited last year. However, this year there is a marked change with costs and financial issues followed by shortage of raw materials being the main challenges. This finding reflects the downturn in the economy combined with strong price inflation of commodity food products and energy. Rising prices for many agricultural commodities are clearly affecting processors but for many arable farmers higher prices are leading to improved profitability and a renewed interest in a range of food crops. For livestock producers, the situation is difficult as feed costs have risen substantially. The outcome of this situation will depend on the ability of increased supply to meet market demand and stabilise at a sustainable level. If oversupply results, prices will fall benefiting processors but raising questions over the sustainability of primary production. Page 5

8 1. Introduction 1.1 Background to the research In February 2008, the Scottish Government s Rural and Environment Research and Analysis Directorate (RERAD) commissioned DTZ to carry out research to explore how much Scottish food and drink primary produce is processed in Scotland. This report is an update of similar research conducted by DTZ in The aim is to reveal changes in the origins and destinations of Scottish primary produce drawing on two sources: the new Scottish Input-Output tables published in November 2007, and views of Scottish food and drink processors. The research provides part of the evidence base to inform future policy interventions. The DTZ team included in-house experts in input-output modelling and the agri-food sector while additional expertise was provided by Research Resource, a firm of survey specialists. 1.2 Overview of study method The study methodology had three elements: 1. input-output analysis forming a top-down measurement of food processing activity; 2. Benchmarking of Scottish input-output results with a selection of other countries; 3. Telephone survey of Scottish processors to establish the main issues in relation to sourcing and processing Scottish food and drink primary produce. A summary of the stages of the methodology is shown in Figure 1.1. Page 6

9 Figure 1.1 Overview of methodology Stage 1 Inception Stage 2 Desk-based research Stage 3 Processor survey Stage 4 Final analysis & reporting 1.3 Acknowledgements DTZ acknowledges the co-operation and involvement of the processors who gave up their time to participate in the survey. In addition, we are grateful to Scottish Government economists for their contribution to providing unpublished input-output data for the research. 1.4 Report Structure The remainder of the report is set out in the following way: Section 2 sets out the sales and purchases of Scottish primary produce and sales of Scottish processed food by type of purchaser Section 3 benchmarks Scotland s performance in processing primary produce against a sample of other EU countries (Italy, Austria, Denmark and Poland) Section 4 sets out the results of the processor survey. Section 5 sets out the conclusions to the work. Page 7

10 2. Destination and Origin Purchases of Processors This section provides an overview of sales and purchases of Scottish primary food produce based on the Scottish Input-Output tables for 2004 published by the Scottish Government in November It also provides a comparison with results from last year. It then goes onto analyse processor purchases of primary produce in each food and drink sub-sector and sales of processed product by geographical destination. Finally, the section compares Scottish primary production with processing output over the past ten years. 2.1 Destination of sales of Scottish primary produce The main destinations of Scottish primary produce sales are shown in Figure 2.1. The largest purchaser groups of food and drink produced in Scotland are outlined in the following table. Table 2.1 Main Purchasers of Scottish primary produce 2004 compared to 2003 Purchaser group Share in total sales 2004 Share in total sales 2003 Scottish processors 0.79 Billion 24% 0.78 Billion 26% Scottish households 23% 24% Scottish primary producers 16% 18% Scottish hotels and 1% 1% restaurants Non-Scottish purchasers 30% 26% Other 6% 5% Total 3.3 Billion 100% 3 Billion 100% Source: Scottish Government, 2004 Scottish Input-Output Tables, adapted by DTZ The immediate finding of note is that non-scottish purchasers appear to have increased their share of purchases at the expense of Scottish purchasers. Whilst the percentage share purchased by Scottish processors has declined by 2%, in absolute terms there is an increase in purchases to 0.79 billion. Scottish processors may be importing more primary produce but it is not possible to tell from these data. 23% of Scottish primary produce was bought by households without any further processing, either directly or through wholesale and retail. These two groups together accounted for half of the total primary produce sales in Scotland in 2003, while a year later they form only 47% of a larger total. Primary producers bought 16% of the total, down from 18% in the previous year. A larger proportion of Scottish primary food produce was exported to the rest of the UK or to the rest of world in 2004 (30%) compared with 2003 (26%). Four fifths (80%) of Scottish primary produce exports were made to the UK compared with just 76% in 2003, the rest was sold to processors, primary producers and households outside the UK. Page 8

11 Figure 2.1 Destination of Scottish primary produce sales Source: Scottish Government, 2004 Scottish Input-Output Tables, adapted by DTZ The areas outside the main circle in Figure 2.1 show the proportion of primary produce purchases by each buyer group bought outside Scotland. Therefore the pie shows total primary produce purchases by each group from all origins. For example, Figure 2.1 shows that Scottish households buy 66% of their primary produce from Scottish sources, and 34% from non-scottish sources. Table 2.2 summarises changes in the proportion of primary produce purchases originated in Scotland for each buyer group: Page 9

12 Table 2.2 Share of Scottish primary produce bought from Scottish sources 2004 compared to 2003 Purchaser group Share of primary produce bought from Scottish sources 2004 Share of primary produce bought from Scottish sources 2003 Scottish processors 67% 68% Scottish households 66% 67% Scottish primary producers 65% 65% Scottish hotels and restaurants 74% 69% Source: Scottish Government, 2004 Scottish Input-Output Tables, adapted by DTZ The main finding is that the Scottish hotels and catering sector bought a significantly higher proportion of primary produce from Scottish sources in In other words, provenance is of increasing importance to this sector. There were no other significant changes between the two years, though processors and households bought slightly less in percentage terms, but more in absolute terms. The data suggest that in 2004 provenance was not having a marked effect on consumer purchasing behaviour. DTZ has also updated the 2004 Input-Output table to 2007, the updated diagram and the methodology can be found in the Appendices. 2.2 Origin of purchases of primary produce by processing sector A detailed analysis of processing sub-sectors was undertaken, again using Scottish Input- Output Tables. This analysis explores the proportion of Scottish primary produce (as a share of all primary produce) processed by Scottish processors. Figures 2.2 and 2.3 outline the food and drink sub-sectors respective purchases of Scottish and non-scottish primary produce in Within the food and drink processing sector, most primary produce is bought by the fish and fruit processing sectors. In total, this sector bought 460 million worth of primary produce in 2004, 74% from Scottish origin, which is the highest rate of Scottish sourcing among the processing sub-sectors. Page 10

13 Figure 2.2 Food processing sectors purchases of primary produce m Fish & fruit processing 74% from Scotland Meat processing 65% from Scotland Dairy products 65% from Scotland Grain milling & starch 65% from Scotland Other food products 65% from Scotland Purchases of Scottish primary produce Animal feed stuffs 65% from Scotland Purchases of non-scottish primary produce Bread, biscuits etc 66% from Scotland Confectionery 66% from Scotland Source: Scottish Government, 2004 Scottish Input-Output Tables, adapted by DTZ Food sectors: Note: fish and fruit processing are included in the Input-Output Tables as a single sector. In Scotland, fruit processing has a significantly lower value than fish processing and this category is therefore likely to reflect the split of purchases by the fish processing sector. Page 11

14 Figure 2.3 Drink processing sectors purchases of primary produce m Beer brewing 64% from Scotland Spirits & wines, etc Purchases of Scottish primary produce Purchases of non-scottish primary produce Soft drinks Source: Scottish Government, 2004 Scottish Input-Output Tables, adapted by DTZ Drink sectors: Note: the value of primary produce purchased by the drink processing sector is low because much of the produce purchased has received some processing (e.g. the whisky industry purchases significantly from the grain milling and starch processing sector) The rest of the food and drink sub-sectors all source about 65-66% of their primary produce inputs from Scotland, with the exception of spirits and wines and soft drinks, as almost 100% of the primary produce they purchase is Scottish. The 2004 picture is very much the same as Absolute values have increased but the proportions sourced from Scotland remain almost the same. Investigations by DTZ last year found that purchase information on the major sectors, such as fish and meat are accurate, but for more minor sub-sectors, a technology assumption is made by the Scottish Government, distributing imports across processing sectors reflecting the overall consumption of primary produce, regardless of origin. For this reason, in the case of smaller sub-sectors, while the total value of purchases is accurate, information on how much is imported should be considered indicative. Page 12

15 2.3 Destination of sales and output of Scottish-processed food and drink Table 2.3 shows all sales from Scottish food and drink processors split by destination for 2004, the latest year with available data. Data on processors includes primary and secondary processing and takes account of first purchasers only. It is acknowledged that there will be further purchases, processing and exports from UK processors, so the table does not necessarily identify all sales or exports. The three destinations for sales from Scottish food and drink processors are defined as: Scotland Rest of UK Outside the UK The largest destination for sales is highlighted for each subsector. Table 2.3 Scottish food and drink processors sales by geographical destination, 2004 % sold Scottish food and drink processing sectors in Scotland in the rest of UK outside the UK Total output m Meat Processing 45% 50% 5% 947 Fish and Fruit Processing 12% 63% 26% 1,037 Oils and Fats 23% 58% 19% 2 Dairy Products 55% 40% 5% 582 Grain Milling and Starch 7% 74% 19% 100 Animal Feeding Stuffs 43% 47% 10% 304 Bread, Biscuits, etc 28% 66% 6% 785 Confectionery 28% 71% 1% 89 Miscellaneous Foods 0% 89% 11% 220 Spirits and Wines, etc 3% 25% 73% 2,299 Beer Brewing 38% 47% 15% 253 Soft Drinks 68% 32% 1% 354 Total 24% 45% 31% 6,974 Source: Scottish Government, 2004 Scottish Input-Output Tables, adapted by DTZ In comparison with results drawn from the previous (2003) Input-Output table, the following conclusions can be made: While it was identified in the previous section that Scotland has a high level of primary produce exports, the table highlights that Scotland also exports a high proportion of its processed food and drink products, with the exception of dairy and soft drink products. Page 13

16 However, a larger proportion of processed Scottish food and drink is sold within Scotland (24%) compared with the previous year (21%). In addition, a larger proportion is sold within the rest of UK (45%) compared with results from 2003 (42%). At the same time, lower levels are exported outside the UK, both in proportional and in absolute terms. This finding is despite the declining share of purchases of primary produce by Scottish processors (Table.2.1). The vast majority of spirit and wines sales are exported outside the UK reflecting the dominance of Scotch whisky. However, this proportion is significantly lower than last year (73% compared with 89% in 2003), and much more is sold within the rest of the UK (25% versus 10% in 2003), and more within Scotland (3% versus 1% in 2003). This finding does not necessarily mean a drop in whisky exports, but could reflect a change in company operations between the two years, e.g. a new bottling plant in England for onward sale to export markets outside the UK. Significantly more processed meat is sold within Scotland than in the previous year (45% compared with 35%), and the amount sold in the rest of the UK is now similar to that sold within Scotland. The level of processed fish and fruit sold within Scotland has tripled in a year. This result is primarily due to an increase in fish processing within Scotland. Data does not permit separate analysis of vegetable processing, which would have a high level of sales within Scotland, though a relatively low value in comparison to most other sectors. Other sectors that increased the rate of output sold in Scotland significantly include animal feeding stuffs (increased by 17 percentage points), confectionary (increased by 21 percentage points) and soft drinks (increased by13 percentage points). At the same time, more beer, grain milling & starch and oils and fats are exported than before. Table 2.4 breaks down the level of sales of processing sub-sectors within Scotland. The table shows that the vast majority of processed food sales are to the retail and food services sectors rather than to the processing sector. Exceptions are oils and fats, grain milling and starch, where the majority of sales go to other processing subsectors. In addition, spirits and wines, beer brewing and miscellaneous foods also see high levels of intra-processor trade. Although spirits and wines is still the only sector selling significantly to itself (due to the production of mixed drinks), both meat and fish and fruit processing has seen significant increases (13 and 5 percentage points respectively) in sales to the same subsector between 2003 and Page 14

17 Table 2.4 Scottish food and drink processors sales within Scotland % sold to Scottish food and drink Food Other sectors Other food Total processing sectors processors in including processing domestic the same retail, food subsectors sales m subsector services etc. Meat Processing 17% 6% 77% 424 Fish and Fruit Processing 12% 7% 81% 121 Oils and Fats 1% 43% 56% 1 Dairy Products 8% 9% 84% 321 Grain Milling and Starch 1% 69% 30% 7 Animal Feeding Stuffs 0% 2% 98% 131 Bread, Biscuits, etc 0% 0% 100% 223 Confectionery 2% 9% 89% 25 Miscellaneous Foods 0% 42% 58% 0 Spirits and Wines, etc 26% 0% 74% 63 Beer Brewing 2% 29% 70% 96 Soft Drinks 0% 0% 100% 239 Source: Scottish Government, 2004 Scottish Input-Output Tables, adapted by DTZ Table 2.5 breaks down Scottish food processors sales to the rest of the UK. The table shows that most sales are into the Other category which includes retail and food service, rather than to other food processors. There is little change to the figures from last year with the highest sales onto processors being in the oils & fats and grain milling & starch sectors. Page 15

18 Table 2.5 Scottish food processors sales to the rest of the UK Scottish food and drink % sold to processing sectors Processors in the rest of UK Other sectors in the rest of UK (inc. retail, food service, etc.) Total exports to the rest of UK m Meat processing 20% 80% 472 Fish & fruit processing 13% 87% 649 Oils & fats 54% 46% 1 Dairy products 11% 89% 232 Grain milling & starch 47% 53% 74 Animal feed 3% 97% 143 Bread, biscuits etc. 0% 100% 518 Confectionery 8% 92% 63 Other food products 16% 84% 196 Alcoholic beverages 2% 98% 684 Soft drinks & mineral waters 0% 100% 113 Source: Scottish Government, 2004 Scottish Input-Output Tables, ONS, 2004 UK Input- Output Tables, adapted by DTZ 2.4 Input-Output Summary The analysis of primary produce data for 2004 can be compared with the analysis of 2003 data undertaken last year. The value of primary produce has increased by around 10% between 2003 and 2004 to 3.3Bn. Non-Scottish purchasers have increased their share of purchases at the expense of Scottish purchasers. The percentage share of Scottish processors has declined by 2%, though in absolute terms there is a slight increase in purchases to 0.79 billion. Total exports rose to 30% compared to 26% in Four fifths of these exports were to the rest of the UK (80%), up from 76% in In terms of where the different purchasing groups buy their primary produce from, there is little change between the two years. However, the Scottish hotels and catering sector bought a significantly higher proportion of primary produce from Scottish sources in 2004 (74% compared to 69% in 2003). In other words, provenance is of increasing importance to this sector. In summary, the figures highlight the increased dominance of the UK supermarkets buying Scottish primary produce for onward sale while Scottish indigenous processors are standing still. Page 16

19 Within the food and drink processing sector, most primary produce is bought by the fish and fruit processing sectors at 460 million in 2004, 74% from Scottish origin. These sectors, had the highest rate of Scottish sourcing amongst sub-sectors. A larger proportion of processed Scottish food and drink is sold within Scotland (24%) than 2003 (21%). In particular, meat processed and sold in Scotland has increased from 35% to 45%. A larger proportion of processed food and drink is sold within the rest of UK (45%) compared to 42% in At the same time, lower levels are exported outside the UK, both in proportional and in absolute terms. The vast majority of processed food sales are to the retail and food services sectors rather than to the processing sector, reflecting the fact that most are processed to final product stage. Page 17

20 3. Benchmarking Scotland against other European countries This section seeks to provide some international context, benchmarking Scotland across a range of other European countries in order to determine levels of processing of primary produce. In discussion with RERAD, five benchmark countries were selected, four of which are part of the arc of prosperity a group of small, successful countries surrounding Scotland. In addition, Sweden was selected to complete the circle of small and affluent northern European countries. The five countries are: Denmark Finland Norway Ireland Sweden While Iceland is the fifth member of the original arc of prosperity it could not be benchmarked as the Icelandic government does not publish Input-Output tables. Again, the main purchasing groups are domestic processors (where primary produce is being processed); domestic households (where primary produce is consumed without any processing, these purchases can be made directly from farms or via the wholesale or retail sector); domestic primary producers (where primary produce is being used as an input to agricultural production); the domestic hotels and catering sector (where produce is being used as an input to catering/hospitality); and non-domestic purchasers across all sectors including non-domestic processors, households, primary producers, and hotels/caterers. 3.1 Denmark Characteristics Denmark was chosen as an example of a northern European state similar to Scotland in its dependence on foreign trade. Denmark has a very strong food-processing sector, which is intensive and specialised. Denmark is a welfare state with a large public sector, heavy taxes and extensive social transfers. The economy of Denmark depends strongly on foreign trade, especially on the import of raw materials. Food processing is one of the most important sectors of the Danish economy. One of Denmark s major exports is canned meat Sales and purchases of primary produce Processors Almost 60% of Danish primary produce is bought by Danish processors, up from 50% since last year s analysis, which was based on Input-Output data from This reflects the fact that the food processing sector is very important to the Danish economy and a lot of Page 18

21 processed Danish food is exported. 90% of all purchases of primary produce by Danish processors are from Danish sources and only 10% are from abroad, reflecting the specialised nature of Danish farming and processing activity. This rate has not changed significantly since Households Overall, Danish households buy only 7% of outputs from the Danish primary produce sector, which is the lowest proportion among the benchmark countries, and significantly lower than the proportion bought in 2000 (15%). Therefore it is not surprising that Danish households buy 40% of their primary produce purchases from abroad, up from 33% in This proportion is now higher than the Scottish rate (34%). Primary producers A further 10% of Danish primary produce is purchased by Danish primary producers, which is lower than the average (13%) and considerably lower than the Scottish rate (16%) and the 2000 Danish rate (15%). However, primary producers in Denmark still buy 91% of their primary produce purchases from Danish sources, which is not significantly lower than the 2000 rate (92%). Hotels and restaurants Danish hotels and restaurants purchase only 1% of Danish primary produce, the same proportion as this sector in Scotland purchases from Scottish producers, though a much larger absolute value. Exports A fairly large proportion (17%) of Danish primary produce is exported, though this is considerably lower than the Scottish proportion (30%). The figure reflects the levels of processing taking place within Denmark Key findings The food processing sector in Denmark is the most significant purchaser group of Danish primary produce. In comparison with the previous report, we can conclude that this sector has increased in importance since Conversely, households buy a smaller proportion of domestic primary produce and are much more likely to purchase imported produce than the rest of Europe and Scotland specifically, despite its high proportion of imports from the rest of the UK. This reflects the specialised nature of primary production and food processing in Denmark, which produces large quantities of a limited range of products. Page 19

22 Figure 3.1 Sales and purchases of primary produce, Denmark Source: Scottish Government, 2004 Scottish Input-Output Tables, Eurostat, 2003 Danish Input-Output Tables, adapted by DTZ 3.2 Finland Characteristics Primary production accounts for 2.9% of the Finnish GDP, but 4.4% of the labour force works in agriculture and forestry. In terms of foreign trade, the key sector is manufacturing, though forestry, paper and agriculture are important industries due to the large number of people living in rural areas. Rural regions get substantial funding from the government Sales and purchases of primary produce The destinations of Finnish primary produce sales are outlined in Figure 3.2. The investigated destination groups (primary producers, processors, households, hotels and restaurants and exports) account for 98% of the total sales of Finnish primary produce. Processors Finnish processors buy almost half of total Finnish primary produce, which is twice the proportion of domestic food produce bought by processors in Scotland. The food and drink processing sector in Finland buys 93% of primary produce inputs from Finnish sources. Households 18% of total Finnish primary produce sold is taken up by Finnish households without processing. Households source 74% of their primary produce purchases in Finland an average figure for the benchmark countries. Page 20

23 Primary producers At 21%, a relatively large proportion of Finnish primary produce is used as inputs for the Finnish primary production sector, which sources almost all (95%) of its primary produce purchases from Finland. Hotels and restaurants Finnish hotels and restaurants buy 2% of total Finnish primary produce, while for most benchmark countries this proportion is just 1%. This sector buys 65% of its primary produce from Finnish sources, and imports the rest, which is the usual case for the hotels and catering sector across Europe. Exports Only 8% of Finnish primary produce is exported, this is a considerably lower rate than the average for the benchmark countries (15%) Key findings The Finnish food and drink processing sector is the main purchaser of Finnish primary produce, followed by Finnish primary producers. Both of these groups buy their primary produce inputs almost exclusively from Finnish sources, unlike in Scotland. At the same time, households buy a smaller proportion of total primary produce in Finland than in Scotland, but even so, they import a smaller share. Figure 3.2 Sales and purchases of primary produce, Finland Source: Scottish Government, 2004 Scottish Input-Output Tables, Eurostat, 2004 Finnish Input-Output Tables, adapted by DTZ Page 21

24 3.3 Norway Characteristics Norway is a primarily industrial country that has experienced fast economic growth fuelled by petroleum production and a booming fishing industry. Norway is a welfare state with a large public sector, and as such it is one of the most heavily taxed economies in the world Sales and purchases of primary produce Processors Similar to Denmark, more than half of Norwegian primary produce is bought by the Norwegian food processing industry, which buys 90% of its primary produce purchases from Norwegian sources. This finding reflects the importance of the fish processing sector (catching and aquaculture) to Norway. Households 15% of Norwegian primary produce is bought by domestic households, which is a low figure in comparison with other benchmark countries. Primary producers Only 5% of total Norwegian primary produce is bought by the Norwegian primary produce sector, which is the lowest rate among all the benchmark countries and similar to the Swedish rate (6%). Hotels and restaurants Norwegian hotels and restaurants buy 1% of total domestic primary produce. Exports 14% of Norwegian primary produce is exported, which is near the average across the investigated European benchmark countries. Page 22

25 Figure 3.3 Sales and purchases of primary produce, Norway Source: Scottish Government, 2004 Scottish Input-Output Tables, Eurostat, 2002 Norwegian Input-Output Tables, adapted by DTZ 3.4 Ireland Characteristics Ireland is a highly trade-dependent country that experienced a strong economic growth in the past twenty years, especially during the second half of the 1990s. Agriculture was once the most important sector in Ireland, but it has gone through a sharp decline and now accounts for 5% of the Irish GDP. This is still a high rate in comparison with most European countries and farmers still account for 7% of the workforce. Agricultural and food products account for 8.5% of total exports; live animals and processed meat are among the most important Irish export products Sales and purchases of primary produce Processors 60% of Irish primary produce is bought by Irish processors, reflecting the importance of the Irish meat processing sector. 93% of this sector s primary produce inputs is bought from Irish sources. Households Irish households buy only 13% of total Irish primary produce, which is a much lower proportion than in Scotland and it is lower than the rate in most other benchmark countries. Households in Ireland import 28% of their primary produce purchases. Page 23

26 Primary producers 15% of total primary food produced in Ireland is used as inputs for the Irish primary production sector. This is very similar to the Scottish rate (16%), and both are higher than average in Europe. However, Irish primary producers buy 92% of their primary produce purchases from Irish sources, while for Scottish primary production this rate is just 65%. Hotels and restaurants 1% of Irish primary produce is bought by domestic hotels and restaurants, who import only 11% of their primary produce purchases a low rate for this sector in Europe. Exports Although the main driver of the Irish economic growth is exports, only 10% of total Irish primary produce is exported. Again, this reflects the importance of the Irish meat processing sector and shows that most Irish primary produce is exported after going through domestic processing Key findings The food processing sector is a more important buyer of domestic primary produce in Ireland than in any other European country across those investigated by this study. The primary production sector also buys a large proportion of Irish primary produce, similar to Scotland. Consequently, households buy a smaller proportion and are more likely to import primary produce than the above two sectors. Figure 3.4 Sales and purchases of primary produce, Ireland Source: Scottish Government, 2004 Scottish Input-Output Tables, Eurostat, 2000 Irish Input- Output Tables, adapted by DTZ Page 24

27 3.5 Sweden Characteristics Sweden is a highly industrialised, modern welfare state with a high standard of living. Primary production is less important to the Swedish economy than other sectors, agriculture accounts for only 1.4% of the GDP and the country imports a significant amount of food Sales and purchases of primary produce Processors Almost half of Swedish primary produce is processed domestically, and processors source 87% of their primary produce from Sweden. Households In terms of primary produce purchases, Swedish households operate very similar to those in Scotland. Swedish households buy a large proportion (21%) of unprocessed Swedish primary food and drink, similar to Scotland (23%) and the UK (25%). In addition, households buy a large proportion of their primary produce purchases from outside Sweden (35%), which is almost exactly the same as in Scotland (34%). Primary producers Only 6% of Swedish primary produce is bought by the Swedish primary production sector, this is the lowest proportion among the benchmark countries after Norway (5%). Swedish primary producers buy 88% of their primary produce inputs from Swedish sources. Hotels and restaurants About 1% of Swedish primary produce is purchased by domestic hotels and restaurants. This sector buys only 64% of their primary produce purchases from Sweden, a much lower proportion than the Scottish rate (74%). Exports 13% of Swedish primary produce is exported, which is lower than the average. This reflects the low importance of agriculture to the Swedish economy Key findings The largest purchaser group of Swedish primary produce is the domestic processing sector. Primary produce purchases of households in Sweden are similar to those in Scotland as they buy a similar proportion of total domestic primary produce and they also source a similarly large proportion of primary produce purchases from outside the country. Page 25

28 Figure 3.5 Sales and purchases of primary produce, Sweden Source: Scottish Government, 2004 Scottish Input-Output Tables, Eurostat, 2000 Swedish Input-Output Tables, adapted by DTZ 3.6 Benchmarking Summary Table 3.1. provides a summary of the data presented in Figures 3.1 to 3.5. It also provides UK data (not shown above) and data on four additional countries investigated by last year s report. In the case of both Scotland and Denmark the most recent data is shown rather than that presented in last year s summary. The other four countries examined last year have not updated their Input-Output information since last year s report. Country Value of domestic primary produce sales (2004 billion) Domestic processors Domestic primary producers Domestic households % sold to Domestic hotels & restaurants All nondomestic purchasers Other domestic sectors Scotland Wales UK Ireland Denmark Norway Sweden Finland Poland Austria Italy Average Page 26

29 All of the data in Table 3.1 is accurate as domestic use tables were available for all countries. On average, 43% of domestic primary produce is processed domestically. Scotland and Wales have a significantly lower rate (around a quarter), while Denmark and Ireland are higher. The proportion of primary produce sold to non-domestic purchasers is much higher in Scotland and in Wales than in any of the benchmark countries; in Scotland it is twice the average. These findings reflects the concentration of indigenous processing in Denmark and Ireland which is contrasted with the interdependence of the countries that form the United Kingdom. In addition, the ability of UK companies to switch Scottish produce to different sites within the UK is a factor. They also reflect the fact that the bulk of the UK population is in the south east of England and the natural flow of primary and processed produce throughout the UK is southwards. The benchmark countries located in mainland Europe sell a significantly smaller proportion of their primary produce abroad, with the exception of Denmark, which has a different structure of primary produce sales altogether, concentrating on domestic processors and exports and selling smaller proportions to domestic households and other domestic sectors, than most other countries. For sales to primary producers, Scotland is above average, reflecting the interdependence of Scottish agriculture. Scotland is also above average (at 23%) in sales to domestic households, with only with only the UK (25%) and Poland having a higher level of 28%. Whilst the UK has one of the highest levels of sales to the hotel and restaurant sector at 3% of 30 Bn, Scotland s level is only 1% of 3 Bn. It is possible that Scottish produce is sold to English suppliers but clearly there is more potential to sell to the Scottish catering sector. Italy has the highest level at 4% of 41 Bn. Page 27

30 4. Processor Survey 4.1 Survey methodology A telephone survey was undertaken of 247 food processing companies with operations in Scotland. These companies were identified from the Inter Departmental Business Register (IDBR) a comprehensive list of UK businesses used by government for statistical purposes. From the companies identified in the sector, a sample was drawn that under-sampled small companies (those with less than 10 employees in total) in order to avoid expending a large amount of resources on companies that constitute a small proportion of overall sector activity. The results below are reported unweighted and weighted, with responses from larger companies given more weight in the weighted results. The weights were assigned according to the expected average company size for three size bands: Small companies (with less than 50 employees) were given a weighting of 1 Medium companies (with 50 to 249 employees) were given a weighting of 5 Large companies (with 250 employees or more) were given a weighting of 12 The weighted results give a more complete picture of results in relation to sector activity while unweighted results simply illustrate survey responses. 4.2 Profile of respondents Of the 247 companies surveyed: 64% were small, 23% were medium and 13% were large. Information was collected on companies by sub-sector, and the profile of the sample by subsector is illustrated in Figure 4.1. The differences between the unweighted and weighted sample profile highlight that the meat, and dairy sectors all have more large firms than small, whereas the fish, drinks sector and other sub-sectors have more small firms. The dairy sector in Scotland is highly concentrated and dominated by a few large firms making it difficult to cover the sub-sector well in this survey. Findings for the dairy sector must, therefore, be treated with some caution. Page 28

31 Figure 4.1 Companies by sub-sector 50% 45% 46% 40% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 16% 15% 6% 6% 23% 22% 11% 15% Unweighted Weighted 0% Fish Dairy Drinks Meat Other Unless stated otherwise, the percentages referred to in the survey analysis are for weighted results. 4.3 Destination of Scottish processed food Figure 4.2 shows the market type targeted by Scottish processors. The results show a higher proportion of companies aimed at mass markets (66%). The weightings highlight, unsurprisingly, that large companies are more likely to produce for the mass market and small companies for niche markets. In the 2007 survey a larger proportion of companies indicated that they produced for the mass market (74%) suggesting a greater proportion of larger processors in last year s survey and a possible trend towards niche markets. Page 29

32 Figure 4.2 The nature of target market for main product 100% 90% 80% 70% 66% 60% 50% 40% 51% 49% 34% Unweighted Weighted 30% 20% 10% 0% Product for the mass market Product for the niche market This year s survey explored the nature of niche markets further. Almost two thirds of respondents (66%) said that their niche market product lines included high quality and premium products. The next most significant single category was organic at 10% followed by healthy at 7%. There is no comparative question from last year but it would be expected that these categories are growing in significance. Page 30

33 Figure 4.3 Niche markets 80% 70% 60% 61% 66% 50% Unweighted Weighted 40% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 7% 6% 10% 4% 6% 10% 0% High quality/premium Healthy Organics Fair trade/ethical Other/don't know This year respondents were asked to comment on their main approach to branding (Figure 4.4). This question was included to understand the significance of companies own brands versus own-label for the supermarkets for example. Just over half (54%) said that they had developed own brands, while 20% said that they produce mainly own-label products. A further 26% expressed that both are very important. The picture suggests that Scottish companies do see own-brand building as an important part of their offer. Much of this branding emphasises Scottishness, quality, freshness and Scottish imagery and enables manufacturers to differentiate their products using a Scottish theme. This point has been recognised within the Scottish Food and Drink Strategy. Page 31

34 Figure 4.4 Main approach to branding 70% 62% 60% 54% 50% 40% Unweighted 30% 26% Weighted 20% 16% 20% 22% 10% 0% Have developed own brand(s) Mainly own-label products Both are important Figure 4.5 shows the destination of the majority of sales. The results show a majority of sales in Scotland at 44%, up from 32% last year. Exports outside the UK are much the same as last year at 15% ( %). Table 2.3 indicated that the rest of the UK was the main market for processed food in The trend is therefore one of an increasing proportion of sales being within Scotland. Exports overseas also appear lower than those recorded in 2004, probably because exports as a main sales destination will be most concentrated among a small number of very large companies and this is difficult to capture in a sample of the processing sector. Other differences in the split between domestic, rest of UK and exports are probably due to the fact that the survey results ask companies about the single major destination, whilst the Input-Output Tables are based on value and cover all sales. The large difference between the unweighted and weighted results suggests that larger companies are more likely to be selling outside Scotland. Page 32

35 Figure 4.5 Destination of the majority of sales 70% 60% 60% 50% 40% 44% 41% 30% 27% Unweighted Weighted 20% 10% 13% 15% 0% Scotland Rest of UK Rest of world Respondents were also asked to estimate the percentage of their sales generated in Scotland. After weighting, the results show a polarisation at the low and high levels. More than a third of respondents said that Scotland accounts for 1-25% of their sales, while a quarter (23%) said that all of their sales are made within Scotland. Table 4.1 Proportion of sales generated in Scotland Unweighted Weighted 0 5% 8% % 36% % 10% % 8% % 9% % 23% Don t know/refused 5% 6% When the results are analysed by sub-sector, the following findings can be seen: The drinks sector (reflecting whisky exports) is the one with the largest proportion of activity focused on non-uk markets, having increased the share sold abroad from 35% to 42%. The dairy sector is concentrated on selling within the UK (57% outside Scotland). This year s survey found that 6% of meat companies sales were abroad, while last year none of them did highlighting a recovery in export markets following the BSE Page 33

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