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1 team Alexandre Gartner* alexandre.gartner@hsbc.com.br Francisco Machado,* CFA francisco.v.machado@hsbc.com.br Ramiro Blazquez Economist HSBC Bank Argentina S.A ramiro.blazquez@hsbc.com.ar Javier Finkman Chief Economist, South America (exbrazil) HSBC Bank Argentina S.A javier.finkman@hsbc.com.ar Andre Loes Chief Economist, Latin America andre.a.loes@hsbc.com.br *Employed by a nonus affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations 1
2 Introduction The vian equity market is the smallest country within the MSCI Latin America index, with a weighting of only 3.1% in May 12. In, Colombia, Chile and announced the formation of the Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano (MILA), which aims to broaden the appeal of their equity markets through joint marketing and integration such as providing crossaccess to investors. The market is dominated by two sectors materials and financials which make up the entire MSCI index. Credicorp within financials, and Buenaventura within materials, are the most important companies. Market structure There are only four vian stocks in the MSCI Latam index, three of which are mining companies (approx 2/3 of the index); the remaining one is a financial group. is the smallest country within the MSCI Latam index, with a weighting of 3.1% in May 12. Alexandre Gartner* alexandre.gartner@hsbc.com.br Ramiro Blazquez Economist HSBC Bank Argentina SA ramiro.blazquez@hsbc.com.ar *Employed by a nonus affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations The local vian market has an average daily traded volume of approximately USD28m, excluding ADRs. Like Colombia, there is significant trading volume that is offshore, with two vian ADRs representing most of this offshore liquidity. One is Buenaventura, which trades on average USD3m per day, and the other is Credicorp, with average daily volume of USD46m. The vian index has had a strong performance in recent years and is now trading above the levels prior to the global crisis of 08, even though there has been a correction since its November highs. The vian index s performance in the postcrisis period sits somewhere between Brazil s and Colombia s. While Brazil s index has not rebounded to the precrisis level and Colombia s index is relatively close to its highs, s has fallen back to precrisis levels. MSCI index vian market liquidity (ADTV 11) 2,000 1,800 1, ,400 1,0 1, USD46m CrediCorp ADR USD28m Local shares Local shares USD3m Buenaventura ADR ADRs Source: Economatica, Bloomberg, HSBC The vian MSCI has four stocks, versus 34 stocks in the local market index, IGBVL. In the vian MSCI, the components in May 12 were Credicorp (c37%), Buenaventura (c33%), Southern Copper (c22%), and Volcan (c9%). According to the World Bank s Doing Business 11 report, is the secondbestpositioned country in the region, at 36th place just one position behind Mexico. places 3rd in terms of making the most progress in this ranking year on year. Improvements were made in four categories: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, registering property, and trading across border. This raised 2
3 s overall score to 36th place, improving from its 46th place ranking in. The country scores quite well in categories related to getting credit and protecting investors, but enforcing contracts still needs improvement. Stocks in MSCI Rank Name Weight (%) Sector 1 CREDICORP FINANCIALS 2 BUENAVENTURA MINAS MATERIALS ADR 3 SOUTHERN COPPER 22.4 MATERIALS CORP 4 VOLCAN COMPANIA 9.78 MATERIALS MINERA B Top Sector weighting in Sector (MSCI) Weight (%) MATERIALS FINANCIALS 36.16, I/B/E/S (June 12 data), I/B/E/S (June 12 data) Earnings and valuation was trading at c11x PE in May 12, which puts it quite close to its average multiple since 07 of 12x. Despite its heavy concentration in materials companies, the vian market trades at a multiple that is higher than Brazil s more diversified index. MSCI PE ratio 3 s discount to GEMs (PE ratio, in percentage terms) (0) (0) When one excludes the period prior to 06, vian equities have traded in line with other GEMs. The average premium of to the GEMs index since 07 is in the single digits. When looking at the EPS compounded annual growth rate from 01 to in Latam, is one of the strongest markets, alongside Colombia. Note, however, that the strong earnings growth numbers presented, to a large extent, before 0, and EPS growth numbers have been volatile. 3
4 MSCI Latam annual EPS growth (CAGR 01) Colombia MSCI Chile Mexico Brazil Latam MSCI yearly EPS growth 0 40 () () () (40) (0) E Fund flows The EPFR data on fund holdings for suggest that investors have mostly been overweight in that country over the past 12 months. Given the country s relatively small weight in the Latam MSCI, these figures may be misleading. The average daily traded volumes in ADRs were basically flat in 08 to, and showed an improvement in 11. weight on funds relative to MSCI benchmark Current 1m 3m 6m 12m Latam funds 4% 19% 1% 7% 2% GEMs funds 4% % 6% 9% 21% Source: HSBC, EPFR, Thomson Reuters Datastream, MSCI ADR traded volumes (USD/day) 1,000 0,000 80,000 60,000 40,000, Source: Economatica, HSBC Economic basics is the fifthbiggest Latin American economy, with GDP of USD0bn in 11. s economy relies on its vast natural resources. Significant mineral deposits are located in the mountainous and coastal areas, while s coastal waters provide excellent fishing grounds. Driven by an investment boom, annual growth has averaged 6.4% between 02 and 12, accompanied by a slight appreciation of the vian sol and low inflation rates. The improved economic picture followed a period with plenty of upheaval. General Juan Velasco took over in 1968 and nationalized several industries and introduced agrarian reform that involved seizing large private farms and setting up cooperatives to run them or distributing land to peasant communities. The government applied high tariffs to imported goods in an attempt to foster local production and tried to reduce its dependence on raw material exports by requiring import substitution. In 197, a military coup overthrew General Velasco but did not introduce radical changes to the economic framework. A democratic government led by President Alan García (19890) was introduced, aiming to rein in inflation and stimulate growth by freezing prices and increasing wages. However, this experiment ended 4
5 in failure, as inflation shot up to 7,600% (1990) while GDP plunged %, and international reserves became exhausted. started changing its economic framework with the election of Alberto Fujimori in 1990, through an IMFdesigned program. The program hinged on the elimination or sharp reduction of tariffs, an ambitious privatizations agenda, and turning into an attractive destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. The promarket policies enacted by Fujimori have been continued by subsequent governments. Economic policy primer continues to be heavily dependent on international commodity prices, particularly copper, zinc and gold, and the price of imported foodstuffs. Poverty has fallen from nearly 0% of the population in 04 to 18% in 11, with a large number of vians benefitting from economic growth. Still, inequality persists, an issue which the government led by President Ollanta Humala (as of 11) has pledged to address. Although has attracted FDI, rising social tensions could be a risk for future investments, particularly in the mining sector. Political structure In 1980, was one of the first countries in South America to undergo the transition from longterm institutionalized military rule to democratic government. Currently, the political system of is based on a presidential representative democratic republic, with a multiparty system. The president of is elected by universal suffrage, for a term of five years, and is not eligible to be reelected. The government is divided into three branches: the executive, the legislative and the judicial. The principal executive body is the Council of Ministers, comprised of 1 members and headed by a prime minister, who is designated by the president, with the ratification of the Congress. The legislative branch consists of a 1member Congress. The third branch of the vian government is the judiciary. The Supreme Court of Justice is the sole functioning judicial body in. The judiciary has temporarily created specialized courts in an attempt to reduce the large list of cases pending final court action. About 1 political parties are represented in Congress, some of which have been in place for several decades. is divided into 2 regions and the province of Lima. General elections held in 11 ended in a secondround victory for presidential candidate Ollanta Humala, of the Gana Perú alliance, dominated by the vian Nationalist Party. Key regulatory bodies Central Reserve Bank of (BCRP): Its main objective is to preserve monetary stability and control the level of inflation. The BCRP is also responsible for bank supervision, conducting monetary policy, managing international reserves, issuing notes and coins, and regularly reporting on s finances. The Superintendency of Banks and Financial institutions (SBS): Regulates and supervises the vian financial system. Since 00 it has also supervised the pension funds (AFP) system. vian Securities Exchange Commission (CONASEV): Public institution in charge of regulating and overseeing vian capital markets, as well as enforcing the Securities Market Law.
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