MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE LOW CARBON TRANSITION IN BELGIUM ANNEX 3 - GLOBAL ENERGY INDUSTRY MODEL

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1 MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE LOW CARBON TRANSITION IN BELGIUM ANNEX 3 - GLOBAL ENERGY INDUSTRY MODEL

2 MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE LOW CARBON TRANSITION IN BELGIUM ANNEX 3: Global Energy Industry Model OCTOBER 2016

3 Table of content Context Model description and key assumptions Key results Detailed assumptions

4 Context This report has been prepared as part of the larger study analysing the macroeconomic impacts of the transition to a low carbon society by 2050 in Belgium commissioned by the Federal Public Service Health, Food Chain Safety and Environment and realised between January 2015 and September 2016 The report presents the results of the modelling exercise conducted by Oxford Economics in the Global Energy Industry Model (GEIM) The report presents the model characteristics, the main assumptions and the key results of the exercise. Detailed assumptions are also presented in appendix.

5 Table of content Context Model description and key assumptions Key results Detailed assumptions

6 GEIM Model overview General Overview The OE global energy industry model (GEIM) is a fully-integrated, general equilibrium model which allows the macroeconomic impact of emissions abatement policies to be assessed at the country and global level. The model covers 35 countries explicitly (the 27 EU countries, the US, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa and South Korea), who together account for 77% of global GDP. The rest of the world is modeled as a single Rest of World block. The model is annual, and includes forecasts out to Model structure Within each country, energy consumption is broken down across five main sectors transport (air, sea, rail and road) households power production industry services The model is structured to take as inputs assumptions about energy savings, investment costs and changes in operating costs associated with GHG abatement measures in a given sector. Model outputs include GDP and value added by sector, employment, prices etc.

7 Country block key components Each country is constructed from a number of core equations which determine: Value added by sector Energy consumption by sector The split of energy consumption into different fuel types by sector Employment by sector in each country Energy and other input costs by sector Output prices by sector Carbon emissions can also be calculated by converting fossil fuel energy usage into tons of CO2 The general shape of the equations is identical across countries, but a number of country-specific factors are incorporated into the model: The sector mix of total value added is country-specific Similarly, the energy-intensity of any given sector is allowed to vary across countries to accurately reflect the different production technologies used.

8 Key uses of the GEIM The model provides a forecasting and scenario analysis tool which can be used to estimate energy demand and emissions under alternative scenarios, and evaluate the economic impact of various climate change mitigation policies and projects, ranging from carbon taxes to reforming production methods in agriculture Examples of questions which can be examined include: What would be the economic impact of reducing emissions from landfill sites? What effect would households reducing their consumption of coal have on the wider macro economy? How would electricity prices change as a result of a shift to renewable energy sources? The model has been used previously in the analysis of emissions abatement strategies: The economic impact of taxing carbon (New Climate Economy contributing paper, 2014) Climate-Smart Development (IBRD/World Bank and ClimateWorks Foundation, 2014)

9 Presentation of the scenarios Carbon price level Carbon price sector Revenue recycling Investment in efficiency REFERENCE EU 2015: : : 100 CORE LOW CARBON EU-ONLY 2015: : : 150 CORE LOW CARBON GLOBAL ACTION 2015: : : 150 RoW none none 2015: : : 150 EU ETS sectors only* All sectors All sectors RoW n/a n/a All sectors EU n/a Yes No RoW n/a n/a No EU ** Yes Yes RoW ** ** Yes * ETS sectors include: Refining, Power, Chemicals, Non-metallic minerals, Iron & Steel, Pulp & paper, Rubber & plastic, and Glass ** The baseline fixed investment forecast can be assumed to include some investment in energy efficiency, though no explicit assumption is made

10 Key assumptions REFERENCE scenario No new emissions abatement policies are assumed to be introduced, though current policies remain in effect A carbon tax is assumed to be in place in the EU for the ETS sectors. The tax rises from 5 in 2015 to 35 in 2030 and 100 in 2050 Global growth assumed to average 2.4% per annum to 2050 Global emissions rise 0.7% per annum on average in the baseline to 2050, primarily due to rising emissions in emerging markets. CORE low carbon scenario EU-only evaluates the impacts of unilateral action to reduce GHG emissions in the EU. In the scenario, the tax is applied to all sectors. The tax rises from 5 in 2015 to 40 in 2030 and 150 in Investment in energy efficiency across sectors in the EU beginning in 2015 (see Appendix for detailed assumptions): In the power sector it is assumed that generation in the EU shifts heavily to a primarily renewables-based mix. Investments in efficiency in residential and commercial buildings, and in the industrial sector are assumed to lower energy demand significantly from the BAU projection. Some industries are also assumed to invest in carbon capture technologies to further reduce emissions. In the transportation sector, households are assumed to purchase far fewer cars than in the baseline projection, and the fleet mix is assumed to shift heavily into low-emissions vehicles (such as hybrid-electric, electric, and hydrogen vehicles). The fleet of medium and heavy-duty vehicles are also assumed to become less emissionsintensive. Carbon tax revenues are used to fund increased government consumption.

11 Key assumptions CORE low carbon scenario Global action considers the impacts of coordinated global action to reduce GHG emissions. A global carbon tax is applied to all sectors. The tax rises from 5 in 2015 to 40 in 2030 and 150 in Investment in energy efficiency across sectors (broadly similar to that described for the EU-only scenario) is assumed to occur in all countries (see Appendix for detailed assumptions)

12 Key transmission channels The scenarios examine the impacts of various measures, including carbon taxes and investments in energy efficient technologies, on long-run economic activity and emissions in Europe and in Belgium. In all scenarios, the key transmission channels through the wider global economy are: Global fuel prices, which respond to the changes in global demand and supply for fossil fuels; Country-specific electricity prices, which incorporate shifts in production prices, any taxes applied and/or any imposed path for power generation; Firms cost of production, which incorporate the shift in energy cost and consumption, and any carbon taxes or capital costs associated with abatement;

13 Table of content Context Model description and key assumptions Key results Energy prices Competitiveness Detailed assumptions

14 Results summary When the EU moves alone, the impacts of GHG abatement are generally more negative than in cases where actions are globally coordinated. This is the result of the loss of competitiveness due to the gap in energy prices caused by the EU s carbon tax. Moreover, the EU s competitors benefit from the impact of falling EU fossil fuel consumption on world energy prices. The aggregate impacts, however, are small; moreover, competitiveness impacts ease over time in line with falling carbon-intensity in the EU, which reduces the pass-through of the carbon tax to prices. Recycling of revenues through increased government consumption helps to offset some of the impact of tax by boosting domestic demand, cutting the GDP impact by one-third; given assumed improvements in energy efficiency this has little impact on the emissions results The global action scenario simulates a fully coordinated global action, in which a uniform global carbon tax is applied, and efficiency investment is assumed in all model countries. The costs in lost output of mitigating GHG emissions are lowest for the EU when measures are pursued as part of a globally coordinated action. This is the result of both larger declines in global energy prices, which boost real income, as well as higher energy prices in in the US and China, which boosts EU s competitiveness (relative to an EUonly scenario).

15 Table of content Context Model description and key assumptions Key results Energy prices Competitiveness Detailed assumptions

16 Energy prices: Fossil fuel prices are below baseline in all scenarios due to lower demand Investments in energy efficiency, as well as the shift in energy consumption from carbon-intensive fossil fuels to renewables, substantially lowers demand for fossil fuels in both the EU-only and Global action cases and, thus, global fossil fuel prices. Impact on world oil prices (GEIM scenarios, $ 2014 per barrel) Impact on world coal prices (GEIM scenarios, $ 2014 per toe)

17 Energy prices: impact on fossil fuels In the EU-only case, the decline in fossil fuel consumption drives (pre-tax) global oil prices 21% below baseline, and global natural gas prices 28% below baseline. Declines in coal prices are smaller given the relatively lower coalintensity of the EU economy. The decline in global oil, coal, and NG prices poses something of a free-rider problem in the EU-only scenario: the EU faces higher prices than the rest of the world due to the imposition of the carbon tax, and investments in energy efficient technologies (spurred in part by the tax) further raise production costs and output prices. Meanwhile other regions of the world (such as US and China) benefit from EU efforts through the decline in global fossil fuel prices. Fossil fuels prices are substantially lower in the GLOBAL ACTION scenario as these yield substantially higher declines in the global demand for fossil fuels (and consequently their prices). Impact on fossil fuels prices (GEIM scenarios, % evolution in 2050 wrt REF scenario, real prices) World fossil fuel prices EU-ONLY GLOBAL ACTION Coal -12% -46% Oil -21% -41% Gas -28% -52%

18 Energy prices: EU-only and global action scenarios lead to diverging energy prices situations for Europe In the EU-only scenario, though nominal electricity prices are slightly below-baseline due to the decline in nominal fossil fuel prices, electricity prices in the EU rise in real terms due to the costs of financing the shift to a renewablesbased generation mix. The US and China, meanwhile, benefit substantially from the decline in coal and gas prices. As a result, the EU sees higher average energy prices in real terms while prices in the US and China decline. In the Global Action case, the US and China, now exposed to a carbon tax, see much higher relative impacts due to the more carbon intensive mix of energy consumption (even after abatement strategies are implemented). This is particularly true in China, where the coal share of total energy consumption remains higher than both the US and EU; after-tax coal prices are above-baseline in the long run as the decline in global coal prices is not enough to offset the full cost of the tax. Impact on electricity and average energy prices (% evolution in 2050 wrt REF scenario, real prices) Electricity prices Average energy prices EU-ONLY EU-ONLY GLOBAL ACTION - EU US China GLOBAL ACTION - EU US China EU-only: US and China benefit from global fuel price decrease due to falling demand Global action: China (and the US to some extent), are impacted by the higher carbon intensity of their energy sources

19 Agenda Context Model description and key assumptions Key results Energy prices Competitiveness Detailed assumptions

20 Competitiveness: Limited effects on EU exports Aggregate competitiveness impacts in the EU (as measured by the long-run change in exports) are generally small across cases. Competitiveness impacts are most negative in the EU-only scenario. In this case, the tax raises the end-user cost of carbon-based energy in the EU alone; moreover, as the EU reduces its consumption of fossil fuels, global prices fall, lowering energy costs in competitor countries. Nevertheless, the impact on exports in aggregate is small; EU Exports are roughly flat, though the US and China see small increases in exports suggesting that the EU s share of global exports declines slightly. In the global action case, the EU sees a small positive impact to competitiveness, due to greater levels of baseline energy efficiency, and larger reductions in fossil fuel consumption (compared to the US and China). Exports in the core Global action scenario are 0.5% above baseline while exports from the US and China fall 1.6 and 1.7% below baseline, respectively.

21 Competitiveness: Sector-level impacts Competitiveness impacts are more evident at the sector level. Impacts at the sector level are influenced by the sector s energy intensity, trade exposure, the costs of GHG abatement at the sector level, and the extent to which the sector benefits from increased capex spending on energy efficiency. In the EU-only scenario, sectors that are energy intensive and/or trade exposed tend to fare poorly as the changes in energy prices have larger impacts on their competitiveness. As such, sectors like basic metals, chemicals, as well as tradeable services, are most negatively impacted. Conversely, sectors like construction, and metal and engineered products sector, which benefits from increased capital spending, significantly outperforms the rest of the economy. In the Global action scenario, sectors that are more energy intensive and/or more trade exposed tend to see an improvement relative to the EU-only scenario, as the application of the carbon tax globally improves their competitive position. The basic metals sector, as well as agriculture and tradeable services see the largest improvements from the EU-only case. In fact, nearly all sectors are better off, with the exception of the Chemicals sector, which sees lost output increase in the global scenario.

22 Competitiveness: The impact of the low carbon scenarios is limited at EU level Impact on overall industry GVA in EU28 (GEIM scenarios, in 2010 billions) +2.6% +2.4% The impact of the low carbon scenario is limited and positive for the EU added value of the overall industrial production In the global action scenario, the EU performs better than the rest of the world

23 Competitiveness: The global action scenario is more positive than EUonly for most sectors Impact on industrial sectors GVA in EU28 (GEIM scenarios, in 2010 billions) Global action scenario offsets some of the negative impacts of EUonly for more energy intensive sectors Impact on chemical sector is negative (-3,5%) but sector performs better in EU than in rest of world (-4%)

24 Competitiveness: The EU chemicals sectors performs better than in rest of world Other than refining, the sector which experiences the largest difference in the GLOBAL ACTION compared to the REFERENCE scenario is the Chemicals sector. Though the impact of the low carbon scenario on output in the sector in the EU is negative (-3.7% vs REFERENCE), the sector outperforms the rest of world (-4%) meaning there is no loss of competitiveness. The change in global level of production of the Chemicals sector should be analysed with more details to include potential positive impacts of the low carbon levers on level of the demand to the sector. The sector also sees slightly larger negative impacts overall in the GLOBAL ACTION scenario compared to EU-ONLY scenario. This is because while energy prices in the GLOBAL ACTION scenario are falling to a greater extent in the EU Chemicals sector (likely due to fuel mix), because of its greater level of baseline energy efficiency the sector benefits less from falling energy prices than does the relatively less efficient Chemicals sector in the US. Said differently, in the GLOBAL ACTION scenario, the EU Chemicals sector has less to gain from improvements in efficiency because the cost savings do not help the bottom line as much as in the US. Impact on value-added in Chemicals (% evolution in 2050 wrt REF scenario) Chemicals sector GVA EU-ONLY GLOBAL ACTION - EU28-2.9% -3.7% - US 0.6% -2.7% - China -0.2% -4.8% - World -1.2% -4.1%

25 Agenda Context Model description and key assumptions Key results Detailed assumptions

26 EU Power sector assumptions Assumptions regarding electricity demand and the composition of electric generation for Belgium were provided by Climact. These assumptions were extrapolated to all EU countries: Electricity demand: We assume the same proportional reduction in electricity demand by sector for all EU countries. Efficiency investment: A cost per TWh for energy savings was derived from the assumptions provided for Belgium for each sector and technology (where specified) and then used to calculate the cost of efficiency savings in the remaining EU countries. OPEX: Similarly, an opex cost per TWh was derived for each sector and technology and then used to calculate the change in operational expense associated with the adoption of more energy efficient technolgies. Electric generation: The change in the composition of generation is assumed to be the same across countries. For example, in the assumptions provided the share of renewables-based-generation in Belgium rises from 44% to 88% of total generation in the scenario. This 44 percentage point increase in renewables share of generation is assumed across all EU countries. Power sector CAPEX: A profile for electric generation capacity was calculated for each country based on the new profile for generation, and capacity factors calculated from the provided assumptions. A cost per GW of new capacity derived from the provided assumptions was then used to calculate the total capital investment required in the scenario. Power sector OPEX: An opex cost per TWh was derived for each technology and then used to calculate the change in operational expense associated with the power sector.

27 EU Power sector assumptions Level in 2050 unless otherwise indicated Belgium Germany France** Italy UK Rest of the EU Electricity consumption (Twh) Baseline Scenario % renewable Baseline 44% 34% 21% 34% 19% 30% Scenario 88% 78% 28% 78% 63% 74% Electric generation capacity (GW) Baseline Scenario % renewable Baseline 64% 48% 41% 47% 32% 46% Scenario 97% 84% 48% 83% 75% 82% CAPEX, Power sector, (2000 bil) Baseline * Scenario * CAPEX, efficiency, (2000 bil) Incremental * 1, ,581 % of GDP * 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.9% 1.4% *Belgium is allotted a share of the capex allocated to the Rest of the EU bloc based on its share of the bloc s GDP **In the baseline, 74% of electricity in France is supplied by Nuclear plants in 2015, a share that falls only slightly to 67% in In the scenario we assume that France continues to rely on Nuclear energy to this same degree. As a result, the shift towards renewables is less pronounced than for other EU countries. Renewables do, however, replace traditional fossil-fuel-based generation, which in the scenario fall to 0% of total production by 2021.

28 EU Transport assumptions Assumptions regarding the transportation sector were provided by Climact. These assumptions were extrapolated to all EU countries: LDV fleet: Each EU country is assumed to see the same proportional change in the number of cars in the fleet. In addition, all are assumed to see the same change in fuel mix in the LDV fleet; i.e. the share of the fleet comprised of traditional internal combustion engine cars falls by 49 percentage points in all EU countries. MDV/HDV fleet: A similar method as described above is used to derive assumptions for changes in the MDV and HDV fleet. These are assumed to follow the profile for buses detailed in the provided sector assumptions. CAPEX: Each country is assumed to have the same scrap rate, so the number of new cars of each type (ICE, hybrid, electric, H2) can be calculated for each country based on the change in the number of cars on the road in each year and the assumed scrap rate. The capital cost of the change in the composition of the fleet is then calculated based on the number of new cars of each type and the capital cost per car, which is derived from the assumptions provided by Climact and assumed to be equal across countries OPEX: Similarly, operating costs per vehicle for each vehicle type are taken from the provided assumptions and assumed to be the same across countries. Total OPEX is calculated based on this cost and the number of cars of each type on the road in a given year.

29 EU Transport assumptions Level in 2050 unless otherwise indicated Belgium Germany France Italy UK Rest of the EU LDV Fleet (mil) Baseline Scenario % ICE Baseline 75% 69% 68% 68% 69% 74% Scenario 26% 19% 19% 19% 19% 24% MDV/HDV Fleet (mil) Baseline Scenario % ICE Baseline 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% Scenario 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% CAPEX, (2010 bil) Baseline 684 5,085 4,216 3,307 3,429 9,436 Scenario 644 4,645 3,851 3,037 3,150 8,904

30 EU Buildings assumptions Assumptions regarding energy consumption in residential and commercial buildings were provided by Climact. These assumptions were extrapolated to all EU countries. Reductions in electricity consumption in buildings were applied with other power sector assumptions Based on the assumptions provided, no additional capex was assumed (i.e. no capex above what was already assumed to be associated with reducing buildings electricity consumption) Buildings energy consumption % difference to reference case, 2050 Residential Commercial Coal -83% -85% Oil -81% -83% Gas -81% -84%

31 EU Industry assumptions Assumptions regarding energy consumption in industry were provided by Climact. These assumptions were extrapolated to all EU countries: The reduction in energy consumption is assumed to be proportionally equal for a given industry and fuel type. (Reductions in electricity consumption in buildings were applied with other power sector assumptions.) Based on the assumptions provided, no additional capex was assumed (i.e. no capex above what was already assumed to be associated with reducing buildings electricity consumption) Carbon capture is assumed to be implemented in several sectors beginning in By 2050, roughly 50% of industrial emissions are captured by CCS. Industry energy consumption % difference to reference case, 2050 Steel Cement Chemicals All other Coal -66% -83% -44% -69% Gas 41% -83% -33% -17% Oil 3% -83% -39% -94% Biomass N/A N/A -44% 45%

32 RoW Power sector assumptions Assumptions for the change in fuel mix in the power sector are based on the IEA 450 scenarios. Details for Mexico, South Korea, and South Africa are not provided in the IEA report. For these countries we instead assume the same changes in fuel mix as seen in other countries who s current generation mix is similar in composition. Mexico is assumed to mirror Brazil; South Korea is assumed to mirror the US; South Africa is assumed to mirror China Global CAPEX assumptions were provided by Climact and extrapolated to non-eu countries modeled in the GEIM. CAPEX in the reference and 2 degree scenarios is allocated based on each country s share of total world electric generation for a given fuel. For example, in the baseline the US is assumed to spend 19% of total world capex in coal plants, in line with their share of total global coal-based generation; similarly, China is assumed to spend 42%. For Mexico, South Korea, and South Africa, total power sector capex is allocated based on each country s share of GDP. This total expenditure is then allocated to each fuel type based on the within-country generation mix. US Japan China Brazil India South Korea Mexico South Africa Fuel share change Coal -16% -19% -32% -2% -30% -16% -2% -32% Oil 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gas -4% -3% 5% -10% 5% -4% -10% 5% Nuclear 4% 12% 10% 2% 6% 4% 2% 10% Renewables 14% 11% 14% 10% 15% 14% 10% 14% Incremental CAPEX, (% of GDP) Coal -0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% Oil 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% Gas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Nuclear 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Renewables 0.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Total 0.2% 0.6% 1.4% 0.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9%

33 RoW Transport assumptions Global assumptions for the transport sector were provided by Climact and extrapolated to non-eu countries modeled in the GEIM. All countries are assumed to see the same proportional change in the number of LDVs in use, and the same change in ICE share. For MDVs and HDVs, all countries are assumed to see the same percentage decline in total energy consumption, and the same change in the oil share of total energy consumption. Global CAPEX in transportation in the reference and 2 degree scenarios is allocated based on each country s share of total change in energy consumption in transport between the IEA s New Policies and 450 scenarios.* US Japan China Brazil India South Korea Mexico South Africa LDV Fleet Baseline Scenario % ICE Baseline 69% 71% 79% 91% 91% 82% 91% 91% Scenario 58% 61% 69% 80% 80% 71% 80% 80% MDV/HDV Total energy consumption (mtoe) Baseline Scenario % Oil Baseline 91% 92% 91% 92% 91% 91% 91% 91% Scenario 79% 81% 79% 80% 80% 79% 80% 80% CAPEX Incremental, (% of GDP) -0.2% -0.2% -0.5% -0.8% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% *Based on the scenarios as outlined in the 2013 World Energy Outlook; capex is allocated to South Africa, Mexico, and South Korea based on their share of world GDP

34 RoW Buildings assumptions Global assumptions for buildings were provided by Climact and extrapolated to non-eu countries modeled in the GEIM. All countries are assumed to see the same proportional change in consumption of oil, coal, gas, and electricity in residential and non-residential buildings. Global CAPEX in buildings in the reference and 2 degree scenarios is allocated based on each country s share of the total change in energy consumption in buildings between the IEA s New Policies and 450 scenarios.* Buildings energy consumption % difference to reference case, 2050 US Japan China Brazil India South Korea Mexico South Africa Residential Coal -91% -91% -91% -91% -91% -91% -91% -91% Oil -97% -97% -97% -97% -97% -97% -97% -97% Gas -49% -49% -49% -49% -49% -49% -49% -49% Electricity -9% -9% -9% -9% -9% -9% -9% -9% Other 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% Commercial Coal -80% -80% -80% -80% -80% -80% -80% -80% Oil -78% -78% -78% -78% -78% -78% -78% -78% Gas -35% -35% -35% -35% -35% -35% -35% -35% Electricity -41% -41% -41% -41% -41% -41% -41% -41% Other 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% Incremental CAPEX, (% of GDP) Residential 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% Commercial 0.002% 0.003% 0.004% 0.002% #N/A 0.002% 0.003% 0.002% *Based on the scenarios as outlined in the 2013 World Energy Outlook; capex is allocated to South Africa, Mexico, and South Korea based on their share of world GDP

35 RoW Industry assumptions Global assumptions for industry were provided by Climact and extrapolated to non-eu countries modeled in the GEIM. All countries are assumed to see the same proportional change in consumption of oil, coal, gas, and electricity in each industry specified in the assumptions. RoW Industry energy consumption % difference to reference case, 2050 Steel Chemicals Cement All other Electricity 6% -23% 29% -23% Coal -29% -33% -51% -26% Oil -31% -16% -34% -27% Gas -6% -18% -34% -21% Other -35% 48% 169% -25%

36 RoW Industry assumptions Global CAPEX for energy efficiency in industry in the reference and 2 degree scenarios is allocated based on each country s share of the total change in energy consumption in industry between the IEA s New Policies and 450 scenarios.* RoW Industry capex Incremental, (% of GDP) US Japan China Brazil India South Korea Mexico South Africa Steel 0.01% 0.03% 0.04% 0.02% 0.05% 0.10% 0.03% 0.01% Chemicals 0.03% 0.03% 0.09% 0.02% 0.03% 0.06% 0.03% 0.04% Cement 0.01% 0.01% 0.05% 0.02% 0.04% 0.02% 0.03% 0.01% All other 0.05% 0.06% 0.12% 0.06% 0.07% 0.09% 0.06% 0.06% *Based on the scenarios as outlined in the 2013 World Energy Outlook; capex is allocated to South Africa, Mexico, and South Korea based on their share of world GDP

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