Proposal for the BSM PTA to fund the purchase of two buses. 5 November 2012

Transcription

1 Proposal for the BSM PTA to fund the purchase of two buses 5 November

2 This document supports the request for the PTA to approve spending up to PHP 3.3mn on bus purchase Work steps Discussed at PTA committee meetings on 4 June, 3 Sept and 1 Oct Assessed usage levels required to justify buying bus, rather than renting from a bus service Result Agreement in principal to buy the bus, subject to funding constraints (at the end of school year , the PTA had PHP3.3 mn available) Purchase makes financial sense when two conditions are met: o Bus is used more than 160 days per year o On each use, bus is at least 50% full Simon Mann has confirmed that the school will meet this level of usage within a few months after buses delivered Sourced price quotes for a range of buses and sizes Obtained (through BSM operations) quotes from 5 manufacturers for 19 different models ranging from 11 to 35 seats Assessed ability of different bus sizes to meet BSM needs Reviewed with Head of School; Head of School obtained input from key school managers Analysed in detail the two leading contenders in the 15 seat category Formally request PTA committee to approve expenditure of up to PHP 3.3 mn to be spent in one of two ways: o Purchase of two Toyota HiAce commuter buses (if Toyota can fit 3 point belts to the seats) o Partial funding of one 30 seat bus (BSM will provide the additional PHP 0.3 to 0.6mn) BSM to buy buses Not yet started BSM prefers two 15 seater buses over one 30 seater We prefer Toyota HiAce commuter; BSM agrees, on condition that that 3 point belts are fitted to the buses Decision for today s meeting 2

3 Cost PHP mn We now have price quotes for 19 models from 5 different manufacturers Toyota Hi-Ace Toyota coaster Hyndai Starex Nissan Urvan JAC Mitsubishi Rosa Number of seats Commentary For buses in range 11 to 15 seats, manufacturers tend to sell two levels of specification: o Hi spec (e.g. electric windows, two tone paints, leather seats, etc), aimed at the consumer market o Basic spec, aimed at commercial buyers Smaller buses have lower purchase costs per seat (although operating costs may be higher); for example, to transport 30 passengers, BSM can choose between: o 34 seater Mitsubish Rosa costing PHP 3.9mn o Two 15 seaters Toyota Hi-Ace at PHP 1.3mn each (or 2.6mn for two) In part, this is achieved by using smaller seats The Nissan Urvan range has a single body size, but increases seating capacity by reducing the size and leg room of each seat; for the highest capacity, it uses bench seating Source: Dealer quotes, supplied to BSM operations Notes 1: Prices are sticker prices and are before any negotiation 3

4 Since our last PTA meeting, we have made 3 main decisions Key decisions Size of bus? Can school commit to sufficient usage levels to justify purchase? Manufacturer and model Broadly the decision is between two main options: Two buses of 15 seats with a total purchase price of PHP 2.2 to 2.6mn One 34 seat bus at PHP 3.9mn BSM prefers two 15 seater buses For ownership to be cheaper than rental, the school needs to undertake that minimum usage targets will be met o Bus should be used more than 160 days per year o On each use, bus should be at least 50% full (The appendix gives analysis supporting these usage hurdles) Leading contenders are Nissan and Toyota The following slides give more detail on each of these 4

5 Bus size Two 15 seater buses offer more flexibility than a 30 seater, and would be cheaper to buy 1 Ability to access BSM destinations Ease of maintenance Ease of driving Passenger comfort Seat belts Fit with needs Purchase price (PHP mn) 15 seats 30 to 35 seats 49 seats Able to pass down the small roads leading to many CAS destinations Can be maintained by Toyota garage one block from BSM (for Hi Ace) Seats stop at adult shoulder level no headrest Available with lap belts 3 point belts may not be possible Good for CAS / ASA / sports teams Need two buses for a full class 1.1 to 1.3 (or 2.2 to 2.6 for two) Can be maintained by Toyota garage one block from BSM (for coaster) Seats have integrated headrest - better for longer distance; 7 seats are jump seats 3 point belts possibly more feasible, but not yet confirmed?? Good for transporting a full class Good for longer distances 3.8 to 3.9?? Bus too large to access roads leading to many CAS destinations around Manila Bus distributor does not offer maintenance suitable only for bus companies with their own mechanics Although BSM has two staff with appropriate license, they may be out of practise with vehicles of this size, since both transferred to BSM (from bus companies) some years ago Larger and more robust seats Seats can likely be supplied with integrated 3 point belts at additional cost Not quite large enough for a full year group Overall BSM s preferred Notes 1) option Although the operating costs of running two 15 seater buses are likely higher than for a single 30 seater = least attractive = most attractive 5

6 Usage levels The bus purchase can be justified if BSM increases activity programs to ensure it is fully used The current activity schedule requires transport on just 3 days per week 1 Activities on current schedule requiring transport Max # Mon Holy family in Pembo 10 Chosen children s village 15 Tue CAS 10 Thu House Messy Bessy 20 Life project for youth 5 CAS 10 Justifying purchase of additional bus(es) will require meeting some demanding usage hurdles Conditions to justify bus purchase For ownership to be cheaper than rental, the school needs to achieve demanding minimum usage levels: o Bus should be used more than 160 days per year o On each use, bus should be at least 50% full (see appendix for supporting details) There may be other considerations in favour of purchase, for example: o The bus company is repeatedly unable to meet the safety standards mandated by BSM (e.g. seatbelts throughout) o To ensure vigorous uptake of the CAS program, the school wants to introduce a hidden subsidy, and charge parents only for the operating costs Notes 1) In part, these transport needs are met with the existing school bus an 11 seater Mitsubishi 2) These activities are primarily focused at senior school 3) Excludes class trips (which are irregular), and transport to sporting fixtures 6

7 Manufacturer If the choice is a 15 seater, we prefer the Toyota Hi- Ace commuter Key: = advantage? = no clear winner Comparison of 15 seaters Nissan Urvan Shuttle, 15 seat configuration Comfort OK for short trips around Metro Manila, but uncomfortable for anything longer (e.g. to Subic) Reputation for the best air-conditioning Safety Safety score 1 out of 5 by NZ government Lap belts only Ease of maintenance Reputation for having more maintenance problems -- BSM previously owned a Nissan bus, and eventually disposed of it after 6 years Needs to be driven to garage the night before coding day, since Nissan garage in coded area Capital cost of machine - 85 to to 90 PHP,000 s per year of life 1 Overall? Toyota MC Hi-Ace commuter, 15 seat? Seats more comfortable (based on bus inspections) Reputation for having quieter ride Safety score of 3 out of 5 by NZ government Probably lap belts only Reputation for being more robust Can be driven to Toyota garage (one block from school) on day bus is coded (coding does not apply in the fort) I have both 2009 Urvan and 2010 Commuter fleets; most of our clients requests my Commuter's more due to it's comfort and power, particularly it's torque. On the operator side, I get more mileage for every liter of diesel due to it's common-rail design and long-lasting under chassis parts. source: Note 1) Based on analysis of 13 (Toyota) to 18 (Nissan) prices for used vans, with model year 2000 to 2006 (new HiAce commuters were not available from 2006 to 2010); number shows difference between new and used prices, divided by number of years in service ; the new Toyota price (PHP 1.3mn) is about 20% higher than the Nisssan (1.1mn), but the Toyota appears to last longer, and enjoys higher resale values Source: ANCAP (Australasian New Car Assessment Program), published by Australian and NZ governments; Interviews with fleet managers in Manila; other published sources 7

8 In addition to the key decisions, we have made several minor decisions impacting the purchase Decision Rationale Lease vs buy Buy bus rather than lease long term If you have the money (which the PTA does), then it s cheaper to buy rather than lease Specification level If decision to buy minibus, choose commercial specification rather than consumer Engine and chassis is identical between consumer and commercial models However, premium for consumer level spec adds 20% to 30% to cost, and also tends to result in a smaller number of larger seats Seat covers Choose leatherette over fabric Much easier to clean Does not retain smell (unlike fabric) If fabric covers required, removable covers can be added later Safety belts Choose 3 point belt in preference to Greater safety lap belts, if available Coding Choose coding on Fridays Buses will be coded unless BSM resorts to unofficial channels We can chose which day the bus is coded Friday is the day with the least usage Signage on bus Bus will have no signs identifying it Security reasons 8

9 Proposed next steps Proposed next steps Obtain PTA committee approval (on Mon 5 November) to spend the funds Negotiate with vendors Buy bus 9

10 Appendix Bus usage levels required to justify purchase over rental 10

11 At first glance, bus companies have a cost advantage, since they can sweat their assets more efficiently Costs of running a bus Cost of equipment Capital cost of bus (i.e. depreciation / interest/ leasing costs) Typical cost Bus company School breakdown 20% to 30% Buses generally used 6 to 12 hours/ day, 315 days/ year (bus companies are not subject to coding) Fuel 20% to 30% May get negotiated prices on fuel Spares and 16% to 30% Bus company likely to maintenance benefit from in house mechanics and/ or better pricing from a garage Other costs Driver &staff 10% to 15% Overhead and other Total 100%? Bus likely to be used for 5 hours/ day; 80 to 160 days/ year (assumes only used during term times; school bus is coded ) 5% to 15% School runs service at cost Key:??? = advantage? = no clear winner Source: World Bank Measuring Road Transport performance, breakdown of bus costs for a low to middle income country Notes 1: Includes insurance and bus company profit 11

12 The financial case for buying a bus rests on the school using it more than 160 days/ year 1 Key assumptions on usage of school bus After school activities Weekend transport # of afternoons/ week Per year High Med Low Commentary Only used during term time, in weeks when ASAs are run Number trips per year High estimate assumes bus used every weekend during term time 50% of trips outside Metro Manila Class outings Number trips per year Outings during school day, within Metro Manila Return on investment assumptions 2 Total NSP fares for usage shown PHP mn Based on NSP rate sheet for 30 seater coaster Recurring costs eliminated through purchasing bus Based on World Bank analysis of bus operating costs Remaining recurring costs More than 80% of this is fuel and maintenance Purchase price of bus, PHP mn Quote from Mitsubishi for 34 seat bus Life span of bus, years Source: interview with Maidenhead based bus company Return on investment 4 5.1% 2.2% -1.1% Assumes zero residual value of bus Purchase justified? 5 Renting is cheaper Notes 1: This is consistent with Hampshire County Council which recommends buying a bus only if used 4 or more days / week: 2: Analysis shown is based on a 30 seater bus; however, the conclusion is comparable for smaller bus sizes 3: These costs will either be paid out of BSM operating expenses, or recovered from the students using the bus 4: If the Return on Investment is less than rate on bank deposits, BSM would be better off by putting the PHP 4.1 mn in the bank, and using the interest to subsidize NSP fares 5: Non-profit organizations typically require a minimum RoI in the range 5% to 10%; commercial organizations use a higher hurdle 12

13 and running the bus at more than 50% capacity for each day of use Example costings for 5 hours in Metro Manila, assuming BSM already owns 30 seater bus Case 1: transporting 45 passengers It is slightly cheaper to leave the BSM bus at BSM, and hire a 49 seater bus from NSP Case 2: transporting 10 passengers It is significantly cheaper to leave BSM bus at BSM, and hire a 10 seater from NSP Cost PHP 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Option 1: use NSP full sized bus Option 2: use School bus (34 seats) with two runs Option 1: use school bus Option 2: Hire 10 seater van from NSP Notes 1: BSM costs show only operating costs (predominantly fuel and maintenance), while the NSP costs are fully loaded (i.e. they include the cost of financing the equipment purchase) 2: Analysis shown is based on a 30 seater bus; however, the conclusion is comparable for smaller bus sizes 13

14 In addition to cost considerations, bus companies offer other advantages Rent Costs Cheaper if the bus is used less than 160 days/ year Reliability In event of breakdown, bus company can supply alternative bus at short notice Flexibility to handle varying numbers Flexibility to meet unforeseen need Ease of management by school NSP guarantees to honour any booking made 1 month in advance; where necessary they rent buses from other companies Bookings made at shorter notice are accommodated where possible; this is never a problem at weekends, since peak demand is during week Maximizes negotiating power with bus company (and thus helps ensure future flexibility) Minimal oversight by school Safety Requires vigilance by school to ensure all seats have seatbelts Potential insurance liability Buy???? NSP has a fleet of 60 buses of various sizes, making it easier to match size of bus to number of passengers In event of an accident causing permanent injury, liability is at arms length from the school School bus rent vs buy analysis Cheaper if the bus is used more than 160 days/ year In event of breakdown, school will need to rent bus; bus company might be less inclined to supply Only one bus with 34 seats; no possibility to take smaller (and more fuel efficient) vehicle if substantially fewer children Bus dedicated for school use, so no danger it will be used for other purposes However, can only be used for one activity at a time School needs to oversee (and pay for) o Maintenance o Fuel o Insurance Bus would be new and international specification Requires vigilance by school to ensure brakes and suspension are working properly Low risk that in the event of an accident causing permanent injury, school gets sued for a large amount Key: = advantage? = no clear winner 14