Global Cargo Insurance Report Mike Davies Head of Marine, Asia Pacific Zurich Insurance Company Ltd

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1 Global Cargo Insurance Report 2013 Mike Davies Head of Marine, Asia Pacific Zurich Insurance Company Ltd 1

2 Global Cargo Insurance Report 2013 World Trade Cargo market & results Cargo - accumulation & catastrophe exposure

3 World Trade GDP forecast Exports v Premium Demand for transport Port Activity index 3

4 Developing economies remain key engine of world growth 12% 10% GDP real growth forecast 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% United States Euroland United Kingdom Japan South & East Asia World Brazil China India With the (public and private sector) debt overhang likely to constrain aggregate demand in developed countries, growth in EMEs (especially emerging Asia) essential to global recovery. Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting 4

5 Level of exports remain well below trend Merchandise Exports vs. Premium Volume * index 100=1990 Cargo Premium Volume Export Volume Trend ( ) Level of world exports was well below trend reflecting legacy of financial crisis and global recession * Premium in us$ source: WTO / IUMI 5

6 China needs Steel 10 million metric tonnes 70 Chinese iron ore imports China's infrastructures building programme represents an increasing demand of Iron Ore, and local supply is not enough to satisfy it. Source: Bloomberg 6

7 Demand for transport: Seaborne trade Source: Institute for Shipping Analysis 7

8 Port Activity Index Sharp increase of bulk transportation after the crisis Source: Institute of Shipping Analysis / HIS Fairplay 8

9 Cargo Markets & Results Cargo premium by region Cargo ultimate loss ratio Cargo losses by vessel type, vessel age & cause 9

10 Cargo Premium 2012 by region Latin America 10.5% Middle East 6.1% North America 5.1% Africa 3.1% 2011 Europe 42.3% Asia/Pacific 32.9% Total: 18.5 USD billion Actual increase : +7.5%

11 Cargo Gross* Ultimate Loss Ratio Underwriting years 1996 to % 120% 2011: No technical profit. 100% 80% 60%..2012? Since 2007: Deterioration of results. 40% 20% 2002 to 2006: Gross loss ratios stayed below 60% - technical profit. 0% * Technical break even: gross loss ratio does not exceed 100% minus the expense ratio (usually 20%-30% acquisition cost, capital cost, management expenses)

12 Cargo Gross* Ultimate Loss Ratio Underwriting years 1996 to % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2012: Estimated including inpact of Sandy (red). * Technical break even: gross loss ratio does not exceed 100% minus the expense ratio (usually 20%- 30% acquisition cost, capital cost, management expenses)

13 Total Bulker Losses by Age Percentage of World Bulker Fleet Bulkers >10,000 DWT 0.08% 0.07% 0.06% 0.05% 0.04% % 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% Age Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services Losses: Lloyds List Intelligence 13

14 Total Tanker Losses by Age Percentage of World Tanker Fleet Tankers >500 DWT 0.07% 0.06% 0.05% 0.04% % 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% Age Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services Losses: Lloyds List Intelligence 14

15 Serious and Total Losses By age (vessels > 500 GT) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Com (Compromised Total Loss) CTL (Constructive Total Loss) ATL Loss) Serious ex TL (Actual Total 2,000 1,500 1, to 4 5 to 9 10 to to to Age Source: Lloyds List Intelligence 15

16 Total Losses By Cause, All Vessel Type (vessels > 500 GT) Weather Grounding Fire/explosion Collision/contact Hull Damage Machinery Other 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Frequency ( % of all total losses for the period) Source: Lloyds List Intelligence 16

17 Cargo Accumulation & Catastrophe Risk Superstorm Sandy - Port and Warehouse Accumulation Accumulations on Vessels BIGGEST EXPOSURE TO CARGO UNDERWRITERS THIS DECADE (in my opinion!!) 17

18 Cargo Exposure: Superstorm Sandy( 1 / 2 ) Superstorm Sandy struck on the evening of the 29 th October 2012 southwest of Atlantic City, N.J. Total insured losses estimated between US$ billion from Superstorm Sandy and for marine (re)insurance community a potenial US$ 2 3 billion Superstorm Sandy is estimated to be largest marine industry loss in history due to the logistical infrastructure in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut Loss large compared to "weak" hurricane as Sandy had the largest diameter of an Atlantic hurricane on record Marine underwriters of coffee and cocao were big hitters due to the storage of the commodities in International Coffee Exchange- approved warehouses in New York and New Jersey A big portion of the loss is also attributable to cars 18

19 Cargo Exposure: Superstorm Sandy ( 2 / 2 ) Source: Bloomberg Source: Business Insider Source: Telegraph 19

20 Accumulation on Vessels Today: Maersk E- Series ( TEU ) potential value US$ 1.47 billion Future: Maersk Triple E- Series ( TEU ) - Potential value US$ 1.80 billion Source: Wikipedia / Maersk Website 20

21 Port Accumulation - Containers 21

22 Accumulation on Vessels: Car Carriers potential value US$ 120m 8,000 Cars

23 Port Accumulation Motor Vehicles Value of new motor vehicles in transit damaged during Sandy US$ 550m 23

24 Accumulation on Vessels: LNG Carriers m 3 US$ 100 million

25 Accumulation on Vessels: Bulkers DWT: US$

26 Accumulation on Vessels VLCC DWT: US$

27 Thank You Questions? 27

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