Energy Security in China: Role of Oil and Gas in the Global Context

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1 Energy Security in China: Role of Oil and Gas in the Global Context Dr. Kang Wu Senior Fellow, East-West Center Senior Advisor, FGE FACTS Global Energy June 2013

2 An Outline Oil and Gas: Where China Stands Rising Oil Demand and Imports Emerging Natural Gas Market China s Energy Security Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs) Overseas Investments Diversification of Oil and Gas Imports Unconventional Gas North America Toward Energy Independence? Concluding Remarks 2

3 Oil and Gas: Where China Stands 3

4 China in the Global Picture Including non-commercial biomass, China is currently the largest energy-consuming country in the world. The World's Ten Largest Primary Energy Consuming Countries, 2011 China US India Russia Japan Canada Germany Korea France UK (mmboe/d) 4

5 China in the Global Picture (cont d) It is also the second largest oil-consuming country in the world. The World's Ten Largest Oil Consuming Countries, 2011 US China Japan India Russia Germany Korea Canada France UK (mmb/d)

6 In the Asia-Pacific region, China is currently: The largest oil-consuming country Accounting for around one-third of the regional total. The largest oil producer China in Asia: Oil Producing over half of the regional output at present. Has the highest refining capacity Accounting for nearly 40% of the regional total. The largest crude oil importer The second largest net petroleum products importer after Japan. 6

7 China in Asia: Natural Gas In the Asia-Pacific region: Until 2009, China was the smallest LNG importer in the region. In 2012, China was the third largest LNG importer in Asia. By 2020, its LNG imports are likely to be on par with that of Korea. In terms of total natural gas consumption, China surpassed Japan to be the largest in China is the only country in East Asia that imports LNG and pipeline gas simultaneously. 7

8 Rising Oil and Gas Imports 8

9 Petroleum Product Demand: Future Growth The future oil demand growth is robust for China. However, a big uncertainty is expected to emerge after 2020 when demand growth may slow down significantly. mmb/d 18 China's Petroleum Product Demand, LPG Naphtha Gasoline Kero/jet Gasoil Fuel Oil Others Note: data are projections. 9

10 Crude Balance Outlook But net imports of crude oil are going up fast. Outlook for China's Crude Output and Imports mmb/d Crude Production Crude Imports (2.0) (4.0) (6.0) (8.0) (10.0) (12.0) (14.0) (3.3) (3.6) (4.1) (4.8) (5.1) (5.4) (5.9) (7.2) (9.3) (10.5) (11.5) Note: data are projections. 10

11 (bscf/d) Overall Natural Gas Balances Despite good prospects for domestic production, consumption is poised to grow faster, leading to larger gas imports Outlook for Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Import Requirements in China Production Consumption Net Imports Good domestic production potential but insufficient to meet growing demand Rapid growth in demand: three times higher by The result: Huge imports are required. Both LNG and pipeline gas are needed Note: Data for are projections. 11

12 China s Energy Security: SPRs 12

13 13 SPRs in China China s SPR plans share the goals of raising oil supply security and alleviating the impact of crude supply disruptions. Constructed over three Phases: Phase I Phase II Phase III Capacity: 16.4 million m 3 or 103 mmb (Approximately 19 days of net imports or 11 days of total consumption as of 2012) Four sites: Zhenhai, Zhoushan, Huangdao, and Dalian Status: Completed Capacity: Another 26.8 million m 3 or 169 mmb, totaling 272 mmb (Approximately 38 days of net imports or 24 days of total consumption) Eight sites Status: Under Construction To be completed by To establish 500 million barrels of SPRs (another 36.2 million m 3 or 228 mmb) (Approximately 54 days of net imports or 36 days of total consumption) Status: Planning To be completed by By 2020, to reach 90 days of net imports, China needs nearly 830 million barrels of SPRs, far exceeding the current levels of over 700 million barrels held by the US. To date, the completed SPR sites and leased sites ~ 150 mmb held by China is expected to hold approximately 28 days of net imports or 16 days of total consumption.

14 China s Energy Security II: Overseas Investments 14

15 China s Overseas Equity Oil Production in 2012 In 2012, China s total overseas equity oil output reached around 1.7 mmb/d. CNPC/PetroChina continued to take the lead in China s overseas equity oil production, accounting for 53% of the total equity oil production, followed by Sinopec (34%) and CNOOC (6%). Over the longer term, it is estimated that the share of overseas equity production relative to China s domestic crude imports could rise from around 31% in 2012 to 52% by kb/d 1,800 China s Overseas Equity Oil Production, ,600 1,400 1,200 1, mmb/d Others Sinochem kb/d 368 kb/d Sinopec CNOOC CNPC/PetroChina

16 China s Energy Security III: Diversification of Oil and Gas Imports 16

17 Crude Imports, 2012 During the Year of 2012: Middle East : 50% ( 4%) Africa : 24% ( 7%) Asia Pacific : 3% ( 11%) Elsewhere : 24% ( 16%) 3. Russia 9% 8. Kazakhstan 4% 6. Iraq 6% 4. Iran 8% 9. Kuwait 4% 1. Saudi Arabia 20% 10. UAE 3% 5. Oman 7% 7. Venezuela 6% 2. Angola 15% Note: China s cumulative crude imports: 5.41 mmb/d, up by 6.5%.. 17

18 China s Major Crude Oil Pipelines and Import Terminals Alashankou Caofeidian Crude Terminal Heilongjiang Daqing Shanshan Inner Mongolia Beijing Jilin Tieling Liaoning Dalian Crude Terminal Tianjin Shihua Crude Terminal Xinjiang Tibet Qinghai Guangxi Qinzhou Crude Terminal Guangxi Beihai Crude Terminal Kunming Sichuan Yunnan Gangsu Shaanxi Wanzhou Guizhou Guangxi Yangpu Crude Terminal Shanxi Hunan Henan Hubei Hebei Shandong Jiangxi Fujian Guangdong Zhanjiang Jiangsu Anhui Zhejiang Dalian Qingdao Huizhou Crude Terminal Ningbo Qingdao Huangdao Shihua Crude Terminal Shandong Rizhao Crude Terminal Ningbo Shihua Daxie Crude Terminal Ningbo Zhenhai Crude Terminal Zhoushan Xingzhou Cezi Island Crude Terminal Sinochem Aoshan Terminal Quanzhou Qinglanshan Crude Terminal Maoming Crude Terminal Zhanjiang Crude Terminal 18

19 LNG Receiving Terminals: Existing and Under Construction Map shows seven operational terminals and eight under construction Legend P Planned Operational Initial Capacity Under Terminal Construction Expansion CNOOC PetroChina Tangshan (3.5 mmtpa) Tianjin (2.2 mmtpa) Dalian (3 mmtpa) Liaoning Sinopec Qingdao (3 mmtpa) Beijing Rudong (3.5 mmtpa) Hebei Shandong Shanghai (3 mmtpa) Zhejiang (3 mmtpa) Jiangsu Fujian (2.6 mmtpa) Guangdong (6.7 mmtpa) Zhejiang Fujian Shenzhen (2 mmtpa) Guangxi Guangdong Diefu (4 mmtpa) Zhuhai (3.5 mmtpa) Hainan (3 mmtpa) Hainan Jieyang (2 mmtpa) Hainan (400,000 m³ Storage) Secondary terminal 19

20 China s Pipeline Gas Imports: Current and Future West Siberia East Siberia Sakhalin field Heilongjiang Central Asia/ Caspian Inner Mongolia Jilin 2010 Xinjiang Shanxi Beijing Liaoning Bohai Shandong Tibet Qinghai Gangsu Shaanxi Henan Hubei Anhui Jiangsu Sichuan Chongqing Jiangxi Zhejiang Pinghu Legend Guizhou Hunan Fujian 2nd West-East Gas Pipeline 3 rd West-East Gas Pipeline Myanmar Yunnan Guangxi Guangdong Taiwan Myanmar-China Pipeline (UC) Russia-China Pipeline Hainan Hainan Yacheng Dongfang 20

21 Myanmar and China Gas Pipeline Timeline: Construction is near completion. First gas is expected to flow in Q Investment: US$1-2 billion for the gas pipeline. Transportation Capacity: 12 billion m 3 per year (1.16 bscf/d). Main Source of the Gas: Blocks A-1 and A-3 in the Shwe gas fields and other gas fields. Volume contract: 500 mmscf/d for 30 years 21

22 China s Energy Security IV: Unconventional Gas 22

23 CBM Resources in China China has huge CBM resources. With some 1,300 tcf in total, China s resources of CBM are among the highest in the world. 23

24 Shale Gas Resources in China Current estimates for shale gas resources vary from source to source, ranging from 323 to 1,274 tcf. In April 2011, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report assessing shale gas resources of 14 regions outside the US. The report has put China s risked gas in place at a whopping 5,101 tcf and technically recoverable resources of shale gas at 1,274 tcf. 24

25 Unconventional Gas: Production On a comparable basis, unconventional gas (CBM and shale gas combined) is forecast to account for 19% of China s domestic gas production by 2020 and 23% by Outlook for Unconventional Gas Production in China (bscf/d) Shale Gas CBM Share in Domestic Production Share 25% 20% 15% 10% 5%

26 Unconventional Gas: Consumption For total gas consumption, the share of unconventional gas (CBM and shale gas combined) is forecast to account for 11% by 2020 and 14% by Outlook for Unconventional Gas Demand in China (bscf/d) Shale Gas CBM Share in Total Consumption Share 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2%

27 China s Energy Security V: North America Toward Energy Independence? 27

28 mmb/d mmb/d North America Crude Oil Production Renaissance Growth in North American (US and Canada only) production will be driven by tight fields in the US, oil sands in Canada, and offshore developments in the Gulf of Mexico US Crude Production by Quality Heavy Sour Medium Sour Medium Sweet Light Sour Light Sweet Condensate North America Oil Production US Conventional Shale Condensate Canada Oil Sands Shale Liquids Canada Conventional Between now and 2020, the US is expected to add more production than Canada does. 28

29 Energy Independence for North America? US and Canada together consume a little over 18 mmb/d of oil today and produce some 11 mmb/d. Between now and 2020, their combined demand is expected to go down by 1.2 mmb/d. With an increase of some 2.8 mmb/d of production at home, North America s (US and Canada) oil imports are likely to be 5 mmb/d less by North America is unlikely to achieve full oil independence by However, adding gas and coal, that independence is within the striking distance. 29

30 Concluding Remarks 30

31 Concluding Remarks Oil accounts for the biggest energy deficit for China and the net imports are set to go up fast. China has an emerging natural gas market where all sources of supplies including domestic production have the potential to grow. Various elements of China s energy security: China is a late comer in establishing SPRs but the buildup has been relatively fast. This is one of the most effective measures in addressing China s energy security concerns. China has embarked on massive overseas investments since over a decade ago. The results are mixed as far as China s energy security is concerned. 31

32 Concluding Remarks (cont d) Various elements of China s energy security: Diversifying sources of imports plays a limited role in addressing the issue of energy security. Unconventional gas has the potential to mitigate the growing gas imports for China but timing is an issue and the process can be interrupted due to numerous challenges. North America (US and Canada only) toward energy independence? As a leader of the global open economy, US and Canada are unlikely to block gas exports in the near future and oil exports in the long run. US is already a coal exporter. Less oil imports by North America mean more oil availability for China! Will less oil imports by the US create a power void in the Middle East? Unlikely, but things can be complicated. 32

33 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013, June EIA (Energy Information Administration), International Energy Outlook 2011, Washington, D.C. EIA, American Energy Outlook 2013, Washington, D.C. IEA (International Energy Agency), Oil Market Report: A Monthly Oil and Stocks Assessment, various issues, Paris, France. FGE s Energy Database, China National Bureau of Statistics. Platt s Price Database. Author s own research. Selected Sources of Data 33

34 Thank You

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