METHANOL SHIPPING: A SNAPSHOT

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1 METHANOL SHIPPING: A SNAPSHOT KARAN GROVER SHIP BROKER BRAEMAR QUINCANNON PTE LTD 16 TH IMPCA ASIAN METHANOL CONFERENCE SINGAPORE, 01 NOV AGENDA BQ INTRODUCTION METHANOL DYNAMICS IN BRIEF METHANOL SHIPPING - OVERVIEW REQUIREMENTS TYPICAL METHANOL CARRIER TRADE PATTERNS FROM MIDDLE EAST TO THE FAR EAST TONNAGE PROFILE FREIGHT RATES SHIPPING MARKETS SUMMARY & Q/A

2 3 BRAEMAR QUINCANNON PTE LTD INDEPENDENT SHIPBROKERS ESTABLISHED IN 1998 IN SINGAPORE AS A JOINT VENTURE BETWEEN BRAEMAR SEASCOPE &QUINCANNON ASSOCIATES WITH A SISTER COMPANY BQ SHANGHAI SHIP BROKERING BUSINESS FOR BULK SHIPMENTS IN METHANOL / CHEMICALS / SPECIALTY PRODUCTS GAS FATS / OIL / ETHANOL / CPP SPECIAL PROJECTS & CONSULTING 21 STAFF LOCATED IN SINGAPORE 11 BROKERS W/ SHIPPING BACKGROUND 8 POST-FIXTURE & OPERATIONS SUPPORT STAFF DEDICATED DEMURRAGE ANALYST DEDICATED RESEARCH ANALYST 4 METHANOL IS THE CHEAPEST WAY TO TRANSPORT ENERGY!

3 5 METHANOL DYNAMICS CAPACITY: 80MT DEMAND: 60MT FALLOW: 20MT ASIA ~ 65% OF DEMAND OF WHICH CHINA MORE THAN 50% STEADY UPTREND IN DEMAND - DRIVEN BY THE ENERGY SECTOR 45MT IN MT IN MT IN MT IN 2013 PROJECTED 80MT IN 2016 AMONGST THE LARGEST TRADED CHEMICAL COMMODITIES 6 METHANOL TRADE FLOWS

4 7 METHANOL TRADE FLOWS REQUIRE SHIPPING ON SPECIALIZED TANKERS 8 SHIPPING METHANOL IS SHIPPED IN SPECIALIZED TANKERS WITH FOLLOWING ATTRIBUTES: IMO CLASSIFICATION IBC CODE TYPE III OR UP COMPATIBLE TANK COATING STAINLESS STEEL / MARINE LINE / ZINC EPOXY TANKS ARE NOT RECOMMENDED TO CARRY METHANOL STRIPPING CAPACITY (MARPOL CATEGORY Y ) ACCEPTABLE RESIDUE PER TANK (75 LTRS 150 LTRS PER TANK) INERTING / PURGING ABILITY FOR TANKS OVER 3000 CBM

5 9 TYPICAL METHANOL CARRIER SIZE RANGE: 13,000T DWT UPTO 50,000T DWT & ABOVE AVERAGE SPEED: KNOTS DAYS TRANSIT FROM MIDDLE EAST TO WCI DAYS TRANSIT FROM MIDDLE EAST TO SINGAPORE DAYS TRANSIT FROM MIDDLE EAST TO MID CHINA ABILITY TO LOAD AND CARRY MULTIPLE CARGOES MULTIPLE TANKS WITH INDIVIDUAL MANIFOLD, PUMPS AND LINES FOR EACH TANK AVERAGE SIZE HAS INCREASED OVER THE YEARS 10 A TYPICAL IMO 2/3 TANKER

6 11 CHEMICAL v PRODUCT / CRUDE TANKER CHEMICAL TANKER CRUDE OIL TANKER 12 A TYPICAL CHEMICAL TANKER - SCHEMATICS

7 13 GLOBAL METHANOL TONNAGE - EXISTING ~ 4100 ~88MT DWT / ~98M CBM IMO CLASSED SHIPS MOSTLY SIMPLE IMO TONNAGE TRADING CPP BUT ABILITY TO SWING QUALITY METHANOL TONNAGE LIMITED / 28.6 MIL CBM 7.5 MIL CBM ZINC SPACE 5.7 MIL CBM MARINE LINE SPACE 15.4 MIL CBM STAINLESS SPACE YOUNG FLEET~ AVERAGE AGE OF 10 YRS AVERAGE AGE OF SCRAPPING IS 25 YRS DOWN FROM 28 YEARS THERE IS AN IMBALANCE IN SUPPLY AND DEMAND SUFFICENT TONNAGE TO COPE UNTIL NEW BUILDS & SCRAPPING ( ) MT DWT # OF SHIPS

8 15 CURRENT SHIPPING MARKETS ARE UNDER PRESSURE 16 VESSEL ECONOMICS 45K DWT TANKER FINANCIAL COST: NEW BUILD COST $38 MIL DAILY FINANCE COST $11,000 (80% 6% OVER 10 YRS) VESSEL DAILY OPERATING COSTS: CREW $3,500 MAINTAINENCE $2,000 INSURANCE $700 ADMINISTRATION $800 BREAK EVEN / LAY-UP $7,500 T/C BREAK EVEN CURRENT T/C RATES $18,500 / DAY $14,500 - $15,000 / DAY RESIDUAL SCRAP VALUE $4.8 MIL (11500 USD 420 ~ 25 YRS)

9 17 FREIGHT RATES EX MIDDLE EAST FREIG GHT PER MT ---IFO 380 BUNKERS BUNKER & METHANOL CFR PRICE PET MT *METHANOL PRICE DATA PROVIDED BY METHANOL MARKET SERVICES ASIA (MMSA) 18 CURRENT SHIPPING MARKETS OVER CAPACITY OF TONNAGE CONTINUES BUT SUPPLY AND DEMAND EXPECTED TO COME TO AN EQUILIBRIUM W/ ADDITIONAL CAPACITIES COMING ON- STREAM SHIPPING MARKETS ARE STILL SOFT SLOW BUT STABLE YEAR W/ LITTLE VOLATILITY OWNERS STILL STRUGGLING EARNINGS & SENTIMENTS STRONGER COMPARED TO 2012 MARKETS IN A STATE OF TRANSITION & OWNERS ARE OPEN TO CHANGING TRADING PATTERNS

10 19 SHIPPING MARKETS SHIPPING MARKETS TIGHTENING AND EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN COMMERCIAL AND POOL OPERATORS PUSHING UP T/C RATES 2013 SHIPPING CONTRACTS RENEWED AT HIGHER LEVELS OWNERS MORE BULLISH THAN PREVIOUS YEARS & NOT SHY TO WALK AWAY FROM LOW PAYING BUSINESS STABLE BUNKER PRICES IN 2013 PIRACY - NOT A MAJOR FACTOR, BUT REMAINS A THREAT IRAN STABLE AND AN ECO-SYSTEM BY ITSELF PREMIUM ON RATES, BUT SHIPS AVAILABLE 20 THE IMPORTANCE OF SHIPPING TO THE METHANOL BUSINESS CANNOT BE OVER- EMPHASIZED

11 21 SUMMARY METHANOL IS ONE OF THE LARGEST TRADED COMMODITES & METHANOL DEMAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GROW METHANOL IS THE CHEAPEST FORM OF TRANSPORTING ENERGY METHANOL REQUIRES TO BE SHIPPED ON SPECIALIZED TANKERS SHIPPING COSTS ACCOUNT FOR A SUBSTANTIAL PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL COST COMPARED TO OTHER COMMODITIES CURRENT FREIGHT RATES ARE LOW AND SHIPPING MARKETS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN 2015 ONWARDS FOR A WORLD SCALE PLANT (1.5 MIL MT) AN OPTIMIZATION OF JUST US $1 REPRESENTS US $30 MIL IN SAVINGS OVER 20 YRS THE IMPORTANCE OF SHIPPING TO THE METHANOL BUSINESS CANNOT BE OVER-EMPHASIZED 22 THANK YOU!

12 23 BRAEMAR QUINCANNON PTE LTD 1 PICKERING STREET #08-01 GREAT EASTERN CENTRE SINGAPORE T:

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