J. POPULATION AND HOUSING

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1 J. POPULATION AND HOUSING 2006

2 J.1. POPULATION AND HOUSING GROWTH 1. INITIAL STUDY SCREENING PROCESS A. Initial Study Checklist Question XII.a): Would the project induce substantial population growth in an area either directly (for example, by proposing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of roads or other infrastructure)? XII.b): Would the project displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere? B. Introduction The quantity and distribution of population and households in the City affects the environment, use of infrastructure, and the demand for public services. Thus, in order to respond to and plan for future population and households, the General Plan, including the Framework and Housing Elements, and the Southern California Association of Government (SCAG) Regional Comprehensive Plan and Guide (RCP&G) include forecasts of population and housing trends. 1 Because the projections are used to plan the infrastructure and level of service required to support the future population, actual growth in excess of the projections can lead to deficiencies. According to the CEQA Guidelines Section 15064(e): Economic and social changes resulting from a project shall not be treated as significant effects on the environment. Economic or social changes may be used, however, to determine that a physical change shall be regarded as a significant effect on the environment. Population and housing growth are examples of economic and social changes. 1 The uses two different estimates of its population. The first is prepared by the California Department of Finance (DOF) and provided to SCAG. For purposes of conformity with the requirements of these other agencies, the City uses this estimate when and where appropriate. The City Planning Department prepares an estimate of its population based on a number of locally derived factors including: building and demolition permits issued, school enrollments, and the percentage of active electric meters. The City Planning Department estimates are used for planning purposes in the. It should be noted that both sets of numbers are estimates and, therefore, only close approximations of the actual population. Every 10 years these estimates are reconciled by the U.S. Census Page J.1-1

3 J.1. Population and Housing Growth Population refers to the occupants of housing projects, population indirectly associated with workers of proposed non-residential projects, or changes in the amount and distribution of population and employment permitted by adoption or revision to a land use plan. Important areas include changes in the number, characteristics, geographic distribution, and timing of new residents directly or indirectly resulting from a proposed project, and the degree to which project-related changes are consistent with City, regional or other adopted population growth policies. Other issues are the degree to which project-related population is already present in the area under analysis (i.e., already residing or working in the area), or whether they represent in-migrants (i.e., likely to relocate into the area from some other more distant location as a result of the project). Housing impacts may result directly from projects, which include housing units, or indirectly from, for example, revisions to the Housing Element or changes in housing demand associated with new non-residential development projects. Important issues include changes in the number, characteristics (including rent level or purchase price), geographic distribution, and timing of new housing units associated with a proposed project, supply-demand relationships, and the degree to which project-related changes are consistent with City, regional or other adopted housing growth policies. C. Screening Criteria Would the project include a General Plan amendment, which could result in an increase in population over that projected in the adopted Community Plan or General Plan? Would the project induce substantial growth on the project site or surrounding area? A "yes" response to any of the preceding questions indicates further study in an expanded Initial Study, Negative Declaration, Mitigated Negative Declaration or EIR may be required. Refer to the Significance Threshold for Population and Housing Growth, and review the associated Methodology to Determine Significance, as appropriate. A "no" response to all of the preceding questions indicates that there would normally be no significant impact on Population and Housing Growth from the proposed project. D. Evaluation of Screening Criteria Review the description of the proposed project and the surrounding area. Determine whether the project includes a General Plan amendment, and identify the potential to induce substantial growth. General Plan amendments which could result in an increase in population are those for which the population in the planning subregion containing the project site would exceed the population forecast in the Framework Element after buildout to the maximum amount permitted 2006 Page J.1-2

4 J.1. Population and Housing Growth under the General Plan amendment. The potential to induce substantial growth may be indicated by the introduction of a project in an undeveloped area or the extension of major infrastructure. As necessary, contact the City Planning Department Demographics and Framework Monitoring Sections for current analysis, data, and department policy. Examples of major infrastructure systems include: major roads, highways, or bridges; major utility or service lines; major drainage improvements; or grading which would make accessible a previously inaccessible area. Compare this information to the Screening Criteria. 2. DETERMINATION OF SIGNIFICANCE A. Significance Threshold The determination of significance shall be made on a case-by-case basis, considering the following factors: The degree to which the project would cause growth (i.e., new housing or employment generators) or accelerate development in an undeveloped area that exceeds projected/ planned levels for the year of project occupancy/buildout, and that would result in an adverse physical change in the environment; Whether the project would introduce unplanned infrastructure that was not previously evaluated in the adopted Community Plan or General Plan; and The extent to which growth would occur without implementation of the project. B. Methodology to Determine Significance Environmental Setting In a description of the environmental setting, include the following information: - Recent population and housing growth trends for the planning subregion containing the project site (e.g., past 10 years); - Forecast or projection of population and housing growth for the planning subregion containing the project site; and 2006 Page J.1-3

5 J.1. Population and Housing Growth - Summary of population and/or housing growth policies that affect or regulate the project site. These may include, for example, the Community Plan, General Plan (including the Framework and Housing Elements), redevelopment plan, the City's Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Consolidated Plan, or SCAG's RCP&G. Project Impacts Determine the amount of growth from the project by calculating the number of housing units included as part of the project and the occupancy of the units. Occupancy is related to design and the number of bedrooms per unit (i.e., for seniors, large families, etc.). For nonresidential uses, estimate the population associated with employees based on the type of use and the corresponding type of employment (e.g., degree of skill required, wage levels, likelihood of causing in-migration). To evaluate the degree to which the project would exceed adopted population or housing projections for the planning subregion containing the project site, consider forecasts found in, for example, the applicable specific plan, General Plan, Framework Element, Community Plan, redevelopment plan, or RCP&G. A physical change in the environment would affect the land, air, water, flora, fauna, noise conditions, minerals, objects of historic or aesthetic significance, etc. If the project is in an area that is currently undeveloped or unserved by major infrastructure, and the project would introduce infrastructure or accelerate development, then non-contiguous "leapfrog" or other undesirable or inefficient development patterns may result if project growth is not consistent with adopted projections and policies. Consider whether the proposed infrastructure has been analyzed or planned for in the Community Plan. Examples of major infrastructure systems include: major roads, highways, or bridges; major utility or service lines; major drainage improvements; or grading which would make accessible a previously inaccessible area. Evaluate the extent to which growth would occur without implementation of the project by determining the amount, timing, and location of growth contemplated for the project site and surrounding area in the adopted population and housing projections. Compare this to the growth anticipated with the proposed project and determine whether potential impacts are significant. Cumulative Impacts Determine the increase in housing units, occupancy and population associated with the related projects in the same manner as described above under Project Impacts. Compare the combined effect of the growth from the project and the related projects to the amount, timing and location of growth forecast for the project site and surrounding area in the adopted 2006 Page J.1-4

6 J.1. Population and Housing Growth population and housing projections. If the area is currently underdeveloped or the project introduces new major infrastructure, also note whether the project or related projects would introduce infrastructure or accelerate development. Sample Mitigation Measures As noted in the Introduction, population and housing growth are not considered significant effects on the environment. Secondary or indirect impacts, such as increased traffic or noise, may be significant and may be physical changes caused by population and housing growth. Thus, mitigating these secondary impacts may mitigate the effects of population and housing growth. 3. DATA, RESOURCES, AND REFERENCES : For adopted housing policies, see the Housing and Framework Elements and the City s HUD Consolidated Plan. The HUD Consolidated Plan is updated annually in July, and is available from the Community Development Department (CDD) at 215 West Sixth Street, Los Angeles, California 90014; Telephone: (213) For current population and housing estimates, see Population and Housing Estimates, 1999 (updated periodically), City Planning Department, Demographical Research Unit, 200 N. Spring St., 7 th Floor, Los Angeles, California 90012; Telephone: (213) ; Internet: (click on Statistical Info). SCAG: RCP&G, Chapter 3: Growth Management. SCAG's regional growth forecast to the year 2025 is available in a Small Area Forecast edition, which includes employment, households and population (including limited characteristics) at the census tract level for the entire sixcounty SCAG region. Available at SCAG offices, 818 West Seventh Street, 12th Floor, Los Angeles, California 90017; Telephone: (213) ; Internet: Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy (CCSCE): This research center based in Palo Alto, California, publishes an annual five-year forecast of economic and population growth at the county level. See for example, California County Projections, which includes data on population growth, household growth, and income growth, for each county in the state, including Los Angeles County. CCSCE is located at 610 University Avenue, Palo Alto, CA 94301; Telephone: (650) U.S. Census of Population and Housing: The Bureau of the Census is generally regarded as the most authoritative source of population and housing data, although its estimates are only prepared every 10 years. Summary Tape Files 1 and 3 provide the most commonly used data, at a scale as small as a census block. Available at public libraries Page J.1-5

7 J.2. POPULATION AND HOUSING DISPLACEMENT 1. INITIAL STUDY SCREENING PROCESS A. Initial Study Checklist Question XII.b): Would the project displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere? XII.c): Would the project displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere? B. Introduction Within the, the supply of and demand for housing, especially affordable housing, indicates that the existing stock should be preserved, maintained, and expanded in order to provide for the population. The CEQA Guidelines Section 15064(e) states economic and social changes resulting from a project shall not be treated as significant effects on the environment. Economic or social changes may be used, however, to determine that a physical change shall be regarded as a significant effect on the environment. A recent study prepared for the Housing Department 1 explored some of the current housing problems in the, including: Lack of growth in the supply of housing despite an increasing number of households; Household-housing type mismatch because average unit size is small and declining, while average household size is large and increasing; Overcrowding; and Increasing rent burden such that more than 30 percent of income goes for rent. This situation is related to household size, income, ethnicity, as well as the age of the head of the household. 1 Housing Department, 1994 Housing Study, prepared by Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler, Inc., December Page J.2-1

8 J.2. Population and Housing Displacement Adopted City programs and policies, designed to increase and conserve the supply of housing, particularly the supply of housing affordable to lower-income households, are contained in the Housing and Framework Elements, the Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Consolidated Plan, redevelopment plans, and the Rent Stabilization Ordinance. Examples of these policies and other regulations include: Housing Element, which discourages the demolition of affordable housing and encourages the replacement of affordable housing; obligates the City to provide relocation services to persons who are displaced as a result of City actions; and mandates mitigation of relocation and displacement hardships caused by housing demolitions, conversions or neighborhood gentrification; Comprehensive Housing Affordability Study (CHAS) -- a component of the HUD Consolidated Plan -- which contains a description of current housing policy, particularly with respect to low-income housing needs; The Rent Stabilization Ordinance, which includes requirements for relocation payments to tenants under no-fault evictions; State redevelopment law which specifies actual relocation assistance, in addition to payments, for displaced households and requires replacement of all lost units that occur within or as a result of redevelopment projects subject to a written agreement with the redevelopment agency or where financial assistance is provided by the redevelopment agency; and Federal law that mandates relocation payments and assistance when displacement results from a project supported with federal funds (e.g., HUD financing). C. Screening Criteria Would the project result in a net loss of housing equal to or greater than a one-half block equivalent of habitable housing units through demolition, conversion, or other means? (One-half block is generally equivalent to 15 single-family or 25 multi-family dwelling units.) 2006 Page J.2-2

9 J.2. Population and Housing Displacement Would the project result in the net loss of any existing housing units affordable to very low- or low-income households (as defined by federal and/or City standards), through demolition, conversion, or other means? A "yes" response to any of the preceding questions indicates further study in an expanded Initial Study, Negative Declaration, Mitigated Negative Declaration or EIR may be required. Refer to the Significance Threshold for Population and Housing Displacement, and review the associated Methodology to Determine Significance, as appropriate. A "no" response to all of the preceding questions indicates that there would normally be no significant impact on Population and Housing Displacement from the proposed project. D. Evaluation of Screening Criteria Review the description of the proposed project and determine the number and type of housing units, which will be eliminated and added as a result of the proposed project. Calculate the net change in the number of habitable housing units, as well as units affordable to very low- or lowincome households (See Exhibit J.2-1). Affordable units can be lost through conversion to market rate units. Compare this information to the Screening Criteria. 2. DETERMINATION OF SIGNIFICANCE A. Significance Threshold The determination of significance shall be made on a case-by-case basis, considering the following factors: The total number of residential units to be demolished, converted to market rate, or removed through other means as a result of the proposed project, in terms of net loss of market-rate and affordable units; The current and anticipated housing demand and supply of market rate and affordable housing units in the project area; The land use and demographic characteristics of the project area and the appropriateness of housing in the area; and 2006 Page J.2-3

10 J.2. Population and Housing Displacement Whether the project is consistent with adopted City and regional housing policies such as the Framework and Housing Elements, HUD Consolidated Plan and CHAS policies, redevelopment plan, Rent Stabilization Ordinance, and the Regional Comprehensive Plan and Guide (RCP&G). B. Methodology to Determine Significance Environmental Setting In a description of the environmental setting, include the following information: - Description of existing land uses on the project site and in the surrounding area; - Recent (e.g., past 10 years) housing supply and demand trends, as well as housing supply characteristics (e.g., vacancy patterns, tenure, rent and sale price levels) for the project site and surrounding area; - Housing supply and demand forecasts for the project site and surrounding area; and - Summary of housing displacement policies applicable to the project. These may include policies in the Framework and Housing Elements, HUD Consolidated Plan, redevelopment plans, and the Rent Stabilization Ordinance. Project Impacts Review the description of the proposed project and identify the net change in the number of habitable housing units, as well as units affordable to low- and very-low income households, from the Evaluation of Screening Criteria. To determine current and anticipated housing demand and supply in the project area, use the Population Estimate and Housing Inventory prepared by the City Planning Department, field research, published reports, or market research studies, as appropriate. In evaluating the characteristics of the project area, survey the land uses and zoning designations for parcels in the surrounding area. Determine the character of the area and any recent housing trends, and consider the appropriateness of housing in that location in light of applicable housing policies and plans. Land use compatibility is addressed in H.2 LAND USE COMPATIBILITY Page J.2-4

11 J.2. Population and Housing Displacement Identify adopted housing projects in, for example, the applicable redevelopment plans, the Framework Element, HUD Consolidated Plan, Rent Stabilization Ordinance, or RCP&G. If necessary, consult with the City Planning Department, Housing Department, or Community Redevelopment Agency (CRA) of the. Evaluate whether the project would be consistent with these policies. Cumulative Impacts Determine the number and type of housing units to be eliminated and added as a result of the related projects in the same manner as described above for Project Impacts. Compare the combined effect of the displacement from the project and the related projects to the current and anticipated housing demand and supply in the project area and adopted housing policies. Sample Mitigation Measures Potential mitigation measures include the following: - Exceed the statutory requirements for relocation assistance; and - Increase the number of housing units affordable to lower income households. 3. DATA, RESOURCES, AND REFERENCES Population and Housing Estimates are available from the City Planning Department, Citywide Demographics Unit, 200 N. Spring Street, 7 th Floor, Los Angeles, California 90012; Telephone: (213) ; Internet: (click on Statistical Info). Redevelopment plans are available from the CRA, 354 South Spring Street, Suite 800, Los Angeles, California 90013; Telephone: (213) Rent Stabilization Ordinance,, adopted 1979 (periodically updated and revised). Available at the Housing Department s Public Counter, 3550 Wilshire Boulevard, 15 th floor, Los Angeles, California 90010, open Monday through Friday from 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., or call toll free (866) Page J.2-5

12 J.2. Population and Housing Displacement Housing Department, 1994 Rental Housing Study, prepared by Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler, Inc., December See also J.1. POPULATION AND HOUSING GROWTH. Selected Legislation Federal 24 CFR Part Tenants who are to be displaced as a result of demolition or disposition must be relocated to other decent, safe, sanitary, and affordable housing (at rents no higher than permitted under the Uniform Relocation Assistance and Real Property Acquisition Policies Act). The new housing, to the maximum extent practicable, should be housing of the tenants choice, on a nondiscriminatory basis, without regard to race, color, religion (creed), national origin, handicap, age, or sex, in compliance with applicable Federal and State laws. In addition to provision of relocation housing, assistance to all displaced tenants includes assistance in finding other suitable housing, including payment of actual, reasonable moving costs, and counseling and advisory services to assure that full choices and real opportunities exit for tenants displaced from public housing scheduled for demolition or other disposition to select relocation housing in a full range of neighborhoods in which suitable relocation housing may be found, in and outside areas of minority concentration Page J.2-6

13 J.2. Population and Housing Displacement Exhibit J.2-1 MAXIMUM AFFORDABLE RENT FOR VERY LOW- AND LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS IN THE CITY OF LOS ANGELES, FY 2003 Household Income Category as Percent of Median Family Income (MFI) Very Low-Income (up to 50% of MFI) Household Size 1-Person 2-Persons 3-Persons 4-Persons 5-Persons 6-Persons Maximum Household Income a $19,740 $22,560 $25,380 $28,200 $30,456 $32,712 Maximum Monthly Rent b Low-Income (51-80% of MFI) Maximum Household Income $28,820 $32,938 $37,055 $41,172 $44,466 $47,760 (73% of MFI) a Maximum Monthly Rent b ,029 1,112 1,194 a b Per Department of HUD. Assumes 30% of monthly income for rent, rounded to nearest dollar. Source: Department of HUD; Hamilton, Rabinowitz & Alschuler, Inc., 1996 and the Housing Department, Page J.2-7

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