EVALUATION OF LONG-TERM DATA SETS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE DETECTION AND MONITORING

Transcription

1 EVALUATION OF LONG-TERM DATA SETS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE DETECTION AND MONITORING R&D Technical Report X1-043/TR Codling, I. D., Thorne, J. and Langford, T. E. L. 1 Research Contractor: WRc plc and 1 PISCES Conservation Ltd.

2 Publishing Organisation: Environment, Rio House, Waterside Drive, Aztec West, Almondsbury BRISTOL BS32 4UD. Tel: Fax: Website: ISBN: Environment 2003 All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the Environment. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment. Its officers, servant or agents accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained herein. Dissemination status : Released to Regions : Publicly Available Statement of use The report will help to support the development of policy and processes that involve Planning and Reporting. The target audience is senior managers with responsibility for 'Limiting and Adapting to Climate Change' and those involved in Monitoring and Assessment. The report will also provide useful material for other Government agencies, research institutions, businesses and academia. Keywords Climate change impacts, monitoring, long-term data sets Research contractor This document was produced under R&D Project X1-043 by: WRc plc, Frankland Road, Blagrove, Swindon, Wiltshire, SN5 8YF Tel: Fax: Website: Environment s Project Manager The Environment s Project Managers for R&D Project X1-043 were: Rachel Fleming and Robert Wilby Further copies of this report are available from: Environment R&D Dissemination Centre, c/o WRc, Frankland Road, Swindon, Wilts SN5 8YF Tel: + 44 (0) /012 Fax: + 44 (0) publications@wrcplc.co.uk URL: R&D Technical Report X1-043/TR i

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Earth s climate is changing and the consensus of scientific opinion is that the activities of Man are, at least, contributing to the observed changes. The mechanism of change is the historical and current release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases resulting in an increase in the greenhouse effect leading to global warming. There is clear evidence that climate change is happening: the global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6% over the 20 th Century; the 1990s was the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year since the instrumental record began; snow cover and ice extent have decreased; and global average sea level has risen (IPCC, 2001). The Environment identified climate change and its consequences for society and the environment as a high priority issue in its recent assessment of the state of the environment (Environment 2000 and Beyond). Climate change is also one of the key areas to be addressed in the latest statement of the Environment s Vision of the environment Making it Happen. This document includes the following targets for the next five years: Reducing carbon dioxide emissions from -regulated processes to meet the Government s target of 20% lower than 1990 levels by 2010; Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from -regulated processes to meet the Government s target of 12.5% lower than 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012; Producing up to date assessments of threats to water supplies and the water environment; Contributing to local initiatives and influencing national policies to increase use and generation of renewable energy sources. These targets reflect the fact that the s work in relation to climate change includes both contributions towards tackling the causes and investigating the potential impacts. The has a wealth of long-term hydrometrical, biological, chemical and physicochemical data for the environmental media (air, water and land) for which it has responsibilities. However, to date there has been no retrospective analysis of these data sets to determine whether trends in environmental data can be attributed to climate change. The objectives of this project were to: conduct an initial audit of Environment data sets, catalogue them and indicate their potential for detecting climate change impacts; identify some key data sets that are external to the but that could be used by the to detect climate change impacts; indicate, as far as possible, any gaps in the availability of environmental monitoring data that might be required by the to report on climate change impacts. Data sets were identified from three main sources: R&D Technical Report X1-043/TR ii

4 1. Indicators of climate change impact (including those developed for the UK (Cannell et al., 1999 and 2003), Wales (Buse et al., 2001), the Environment s Flood Defence Function (Environment, 2003a) and the s Headline Indicators (Environment, 2003b); 2. Environment monitoring programmes including summary documents of Environment monitoring activities, State of the Environment reports and responses to enquiries to functions from the s Climate Change Unit and from the contractor as part of this project. These were cross-d with entries in the Environment Metadata Repository ; 3. Expert knowledge of data sets external to the. A total of 79 data sets were identified (37 internal to the, 4 external but supported by the and 38 external but available to the ). The key features of each data (including information on the geographical scope, sampling network, length of time series, quality assurance, data storage and contact details) were catalogued in standardised proformas and are included as appendices to this report. Each data set was evaluated against a set of criteria (including a link to a climate state or impact variable, length of time series, frequency of updating, degree of quality assurance, data availability and the presence of confounding factors) and classified as having high, medium or low potential to detect climate change impacts. From the 79 data sets identified, 65 are considered to have some potential (high or medium) to detect climate change impacts. In aquatic environments, the majority of the internal data sets were classified as having medium potential on the basis of the length of the time series (not yet multi-decadel) and the presence of significant confounding factors that may mask any climate change impact signal. The assessment of information and gaps for climate change impact detection suggested that, as far as information needs had been defined, most of the required monitoring data sets could be sourced. The main exceptions were land use/cover information, human health indicators and climate change induced changes on the coast. The is currently in the process of further defining the links between potential climate change impacts and the business deliverables of each Function. This process needs to be completed before monitoring requirements can be defined. The Flood Defence and Water Resources Functions have progressed furthest in terms of defining climate change impact indicators relevant to their business needs. However, the potential for climate change impact indicators for the remaining Functions (i.e. water quality, land quality, conservation, fisheries, recreation, navigation, waste, PIR, RAS) should be investigated. The data resource outlined in this report would be a useful first step in facilitating the development. R&D Technical Report X1-043/TR iii

5 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY II LIST OF TABLES V LIST OF FIGURES V 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. OBJECTIVES 2 3. SOURCES OF INFORMATION Indicators of climate change impact Environment monitoring programmes data sets IDENTIFICATION OF DATA SETS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DETECT CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Introduction Climate change impacts Climate change impacts and the Environment Data sets with the potential to detect climate change impacts INFORMATION NEEDS AND GAPS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT DETECTION DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS Discussion Conclusions REFERENCES 39 R&D Technical Report X1-043/TR iv

6 APPENDICES APPENDIX A DATA SETS HELD BY THE AGENCY 41 APPENDIX B AGENCY SUPPORTED DATA SETS 82 APPENDIX C DATA SETS HELD EXTERNAL TO THE AGENCY 87 LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Summary of data sets identified from climate change indicators developed for use in the UK 5 Summary of the s routine monitoring programmes (from Monitoring for What? (Environment, 1999)). All estimates correct in 1999 unless otherwise stated 12 Table 3.3 Summary of data sets included 17 Table 4.1 Table 4.2 Criteria for the classification of data sets with respect to their potential for detecting climate change impacts 26 Summary of the evaluation of identified data sets against six criteria and the resulting classification of potential to detect climate change impacts (high, medium or low). ( denotes compliance with the criterion and x denotes non-compliance). 27 Table 4.3 Data sets with the potential to detect climate change impacts 31 Table 5.1 Information needs of the Environment in relation to climate change impacts (adapted from Environment, 1999 Annex 2) 32 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1 The DPSIR framework in relation to climate change 4 Figure 4.1 The warming of central England climate (red) and surrounding UK coastal waters (blue). Deviations are relative to average. Note different scales (from Hulme et al., 2002) 25 R&D Technical Report X1-043/TR v

7 1. INTRODUCTION There is clear evidence that climate change is happening: the global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6% over the 20 th Century; the 1990s was the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year since the instrumental record began; snow cover and ice extent have decreased; and global average sea level has risen (IPCC, 2001). Indicators of climate change are needed to show that changes are occurring, to determine at what rate this is happening, to help plan for management of these changes and, at some stage to monitor whether methods of mitigation, such as cuts in carbon dioxide emissions, are working. In 1999, a list of 34 indictors was published for the UK as a whole (Cannell et al., 1999) and these have been reviewed in 2003 (Cannell et al., 2003). Only indicators with long-term data sets and for which the historic record shows sensitivity to climate were included. The has a wealth of long-term hydrometrical, biological, chemical and physicochemical data for the environmental media for which it is responsible. However, to date there has been no retrospective analysis of these data to determine whether trends in environmental data can be attributed to climate change, as measured against recommended indicators. There has been little consideration of which of the indicators recommended for the UK would be appropriate for our data to be measured and reported against and no consideration of how our future monitoring strategies might be developed to include climate-related data for use in all sensitive operational and policy activities. The is now being urged to factor climate change adaptation into all activities and recently produced a paper for the Board to demonstrate how climate change is being considered across the organisation. This report evaluates existing Environment and some external data sets to determine their actual and potential use for climate change impact detection and future monitoring. This would be a useful resource to users across the wide remit of business and also for many users outside the. As a secondary objective it will also consider other sources of data external to the and how we might use these to supplement the s own information. The main contractor for this work was WRc, supported by inputs from staff of PISCES Conservation Ltd. R&D Technical Report X

8 2. OBJECTIVES The objectives of this project were to: conduct an initial audit of Environment data sets, catalogue them and indicate their potential for detecting climate change impacts; identify some key data sets that are external to the but that could be used by the to detect climate change impacts; indicate, as far as possible, any gaps in the availability of environmental monitoring data that might be required by the to report on climate change impacts. The primary purpose of this report is to produce a catalogue of data sets that offer some potential for detecting the impacts of climate change. The report enables interested parties to readily identify a data set, be informed of its potential to detect climate change impacts and provide details of how to obtain it. R&D Technical Report X

9 3. SOURCES OF INFORMATION The project used a number of sources of information to identify data sets with the potential to detect climate change impacts. The primary data sources were: Indicators of climate change impact; Environment monitoring programmes including summary documents of Environment monitoring activities, State of the Environment reports and responses to enquiries to functions from the s Climate Change Unit and from the contractor as part of this project; Expert knowledge of data sets external to the. Information from each of these sources was examined and data sets identified. A standard proforma was completed, as far as possible, for each data set. Data sets were classified as either: a data set generated and maintained entirely within the ; supported a data set that is generated with support (either financial or in-kind effort) and maintained either by the or an external body; a data set generated and maintained entirely outside the. Completed proformas for each data set identified and classified as internal, supported and external are presented in Appendices A, B and C respectively. 3.1 Indicators of climate change impact Indicators of climate change were investigated to identify possible sources of data on the impacts of climate change in the UK. Five sets of indicators were explored: a) A set of 34 UK-wide indicators developed by Cannell et al. in 1999 and updated in 2003; b) The National Assembly for Wales (NAW) commissioned a scoping study in 1999 to review existing information on climate change and research studies and to suggest suitable climate change indicators for Wales (Buse et al., 2001); c) The Environment s Flood Defence function commissioned some R&D to derive environmental change indicators (including those relevant to climate change) relevant to flood management and coastal defence. A final draft report was made available for this work (Environment, 2003a); d) The Environment uses a set of Environmental Indicators to provide an overview on the changing state of the environment of England and Wales. The set of headline indicators includes four indicators with a potential link to climate change impacts (Environment, 2003b). R&D Technical Report X

10 e) The annual indicator report on the state of Europe s environment (Environmental Signals, 2002) (EEA, 2002a) lists three indicators of climate change: total emissions of greenhouse gases, emissions of greenhouse gases by sector and gas, and global and European mean temperature. Most recently, the European Environment Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change has identified nine main categories containing 49 indicators (EEA, 2002b). The majority of these sets of indicators have been developed either within the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Pressure-State- Response (PSR) concept of causality or the extended Driving Forces-Pressures-State of the Environment-Impacts-societal Responses (DPSIR) framework of the European Environment (EEA, 2002a). Figure 3.1 illustrates the DPSIR framework in relation to climate change. Driving Forces i.e. population growth, increased consumption of fossil fuels Societal Responses i.e. measures to reduce fossil fuel consumption Pressures i.e. emission of greenhouse gases Impacts i.e. changes in freshwater flow regimes, species distributions, phenological responses State of the Environment i.e. change in temperature, rainfall and associated climatic variables Figure 3.1 The DPSIR framework in relation to climate change The indicators developed relate either to the Pressure, State or Impact stages of the framework and the data sets identified as part of this work have been assigned to one of these stages. The study commissioned by the NAW (Buse et al., 2001) considered potential indicators of the impact on the changing state of the climate on the economy, human health, agriculture and forestry, terrestrial wildlife and marine and freshwaters. Fifteen candidate indicators were identified including those with long term data sets to support them and some where data will become available in the future. The R&D project on environmental change indicators identified 35 potential measures covering all aspects of flood management and coastal defence. Four pilot indicators R&D Technical Report X

11 were identified for further development primarily on the basis of the existence of a suitable long term data set. The s headline indicators include abstraction from fresh waters, Thames Barrier closures, flood levels in rivers and salmon catches which all could be influenced by a changing climate as well as other pressures. The approach to the development of the indicators directly relevant to the UK (Cannell et al., 1999, 2003), NAW, headline indicators and the Flood defence environmental change indicators) has generally been to identify suitable available data sets related to a climate change impact and then to develop indicators based on a correlation with a climate variable. This approach has also been used for the climate change indicators used in the Environmental Signals report (EEA, 2002a). The indicators developed by the European Environment s Topic Centre on Air and Climate (EEA, 2002b) were derived from a different starting point. The need for information on climate change impact was first identified followed by a search for suitable data sets to generate the indicator. As a consequence the timetable for introducing the use of the indicators has been staggered. Some indicators are suitable for immediate introduction because a suitable data source exists and some will not be operational for some years because a new data source requires development. For the purposes of this project, the indicators developed for use in the UK were considered most useful for the identification of data sets. Table 3.1 summarises the data sets used for these indicators with s to the appropriate proforma. Table 3.1 Summary of data sets identified from climate change indicators developed for use in the UK Indicator Data needs Data provider Proforma DEFRA indicators (Cannell et al., 1999, 2003) Air temperature in central England Seasonality of precipitation Precipitation gradient across the UK Annual mean temperature and number of hot and cold days each year Proportion of England and Wales precipitation falling in winter Winter precipitation in Scotland; Summer precipitation in southeast England. Met Office - CET record England and Wales Precipitation Series (Met Office) England and Wales Precipitation Series (Met Office) Scotland Precipitation Series. C32 A25/C32 A25/C32 R&D Technical Report X

12 Indicator Data needs Data provider Proforma Predominance of westerly weather Dry and wet soil conditions in Southern England River flows in northwest and southeast England Frequency of low and high river flows in northwest and southeast England Groundwater storage in chalk in southeast Difference in air pressure (measured at sea level) during winter between Gibraltor and southwest Iceland. Soil moisture measurements at CEH Wallingford River flow River flow Groundwater level Met Office Met. Office MORECS data set National Water Archive (CEH) National Water Archive (CEH) National Water Archive (CEH) England Sea level rise Sea level National Tidal and Sea Level Facility (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory) Risk of tidal flooding in London Atmospheric ozone levels in summer in rural England Incidence of lyme disease in humans Seasonal pattern of human mortality Use of irrigation water for agriculture Proportion of potato crop that is irrigated Operation of the Thames tidal barrier Ozone concentrations Reported cases of lyme disease Reported deaths Abstractions for spray irrigation Area of potato crop that is irrigated Environment NETCEN Communicable Disease Surveillance Unit (CDSC) Office for National Statistics (ONS) National Abstraction Licence Database, Environment DEFRA (Farming statistics) C32 C32 A23 A23 A24 C1 A34 C34 C28 C38 A This indicator is derived from Farming Statistics. There is no proforma for these data. R&D Technical Report X

13 Indicator Data needs Data provider Proforma Potato yields Warm-weather crops: grapes Warm-weather crops: forage maize Late summer grass production Date of leaf emergence on trees in spring Health of beech tress in Britain Dates of insect appearance and activity Insect abundance Arrival date of the swallow Annual average yield of nonirrigated maincrop potatoes in England and Wales Area of vineyards in production Area of forage maize grown in the UK Summer hay yields at Rothamsted Date of leafing of oak trees in spring in Ashtead, Surrey Percentage of beech trees with crown density reductions greater than 25% compared with photographs of fullyfoliated trees. First appearance of aphids at Rothamsted; Peak flight time of the orange tip butterfly in Britain; Average timing of activity of common footman in Britain. Abundance of aphids, common blue butterflies and common footman moths. Average date when swallow first observed at four coastal observatories British Potato Council DEFRA (Farming statistics) DEFRA (Farming statistics) IACR UKPN DEFRA (Digest of Environmental Statistics) Rothamsted suction trap monitoring (IACR) Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (ITE) Rothamsted Insect Survey light traps (IACR) Rothamsted suction trap monitoring (IACR) Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (CEH) Bird Observatories Council C29 C31 3 C23 C23/C25 C30 2 This indicator was discontinued in the updated set of indicators (Cannell et al., 2003). 3 No information on the supporting data set could be located. R&D Technical Report X

14 Indicator Data needs Data provider Proforma Egg-laying dates of birds Small bird population changes Marine plankton Upstream migration of salmon Appearance of ice on Lake Windermere Earliest egg-laying dates of the robin, and chaffinch Numbers of wrens assessed on both farmland and woodland measured over the UK Total annual abundance of copepods; Abundance of a cold-temperate water copepod species. Percentage of salmon migrating up the River Kent in Cumbria in June and July Number of days each year when ice was recorded in a sheltered bay on the west side of Lake Windermere Nest Record Scheme (BTO) BTO Census unit Continuous Plankton Recorder, SAHFOS Environment (NW Region) IFE, Windermere C12 C12 C36 A31 4 Environment proposed environmental change indicators for flood defence (EA, 2003a) Flood peaks for the R. Taw at Umberleigh, above Barnstaple in west Devon, and for the River Usk at Chain Bridge, between Brecon and Newport in S.E. Wales Flow records at specified sites National Water Archive A23 Chilgrove well water maxima, in the South Downs Chalk behind Chichester, Sussex Newlyn harbour sea levels peaks, West Cornwall Borehole records for Chilgrove Record of sea-levels at Newlyn National Water Archive Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory (POL) C35 A24 C1 4 This indicator was discontinued in the updated set of indicators (Cannell et al., 2003) R&D Technical Report X

15 Indicator Data needs Data provider Proforma National woodland cover of England and Wales Record of woodland cover Forestry Research (Woodland Inventory) C27 Indicators developed for the National Assembly for Wales (Buse et al., 2001) Outdoor fires Annual number of outdoor fires in Wales Fire Statistics, Office of the Deputy Prime Minister C33 Human mortality and morbidity Flowering of Clover varieties Ear emergence Leafing dates Greenness Timing of peak insect abundance Insect abundance Daily deaths from all causes per year corrected to midyear population estimates. National Health Service (NHS) hospital admissions and length of stay. Flowering dates of clover at Institute of Grassland and Environmental Research (IGER) at Aberystwyth. Mean date of ear emergence of perennial ryegrass (S24) at Plas Gogerddan. Date of budburst for plant species NASA s measure of greenness calculated from satellite data since 1982 Timing of peak abundance of meadow brown butterfly and a moth species (to be determined). Abundance of a variety of insect species (to be determined) Health Solutions Wales IGER IGER UK Phenology Network Reprocessed from NASA Butterfly Monitoring Scheme, Rothamsted Insect Survey Rothamsted Insect Survey C38 C37 C37 C31 5 C25 C23 5 No information on the supporting data set could be located. R&D Technical Report X

16 Indicator Data needs Data provider Proforma Bird Migration Timing Egg laying timing Flowering timing Sea level Sea temperature Upland and lowland river flows Timing of Frogspawn Arrival dates of migrating bird species (including blackcap and swallow) at Skomer, Skokholm and Bardsey observatories. Egg laying timing of pied flycatcher at Coedydd Aber NNR, Llysdinam Field Centre and other sites First flowering date of plants (species and location to be decided) Sea level at Holyhead Sea temperature at location to be decided River flows at Plynlimon and the ECN site on the River Wye Timing of frogspawn at a range of sites (to be decided). Welsh Bird Observatories British Trust for Ornithology UK Phenology Network UK National Tide Gauge Network British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC) and Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS) National River Flow Archive UK Phenology Network C12 C12 C31 C1 C1 A23 C31 Headline indicators (EA, 2003b) Abstraction from fresh National abstraction waters rates by industry sector Thames Barrier Operation of the closures Flood levels in rivers Thames tidal barrier Flood levels in seven rivers (including the Severn, Wye and Ivel) National Abstraction Licensing Database Environment National Water Archive (CEH) A27 A34 A23 R&D Technical Report X

17 Indicator Data needs Data provider Proforma Salmon catches Salmon catch returns from net and rod licence owners Environment National Salmon and Trout Fisheries Centre A Environment monitoring programmes The Environment undertakes monitoring of the environment to fulfil a number of purposes: Statutory requirements; Other National commitments (i.e. requirements under international conventions); Environmental monitoring (surveillance); Operational monitoring. Statutory monitoring arises largely as a result of the implementation of EU Directives. The monitoring requirements for these Directives vary but are usually highly specified in the legislation and must be undertaken to meet reporting obligations to the Commission. In addition to these, the UK is also committed to undertaking monitoring on a national basis such as the Harmonised Monitoring Scheme and the Environmental Change Network and to fulfil requirements of international conventions such as the Oslo and Paris Commission surveys and the requirements of the North Sea Convention. The also undertakes non-statutory surveillance monitoring to meet its requirements to report on the state of the environment. Environment Areas also undertake operational monitoring to meet their own business needs. Monitoring is undertaken by almost all functions within the for a range of purposes. Table 3.2 provides a summary the s routine monitoring programmes across all business areas. R&D Technical Report X

18 Table 3.2 Summary of the s routine monitoring programmes (from Monitoring for What? (Environment, 1999)). All estimates correct in 1999 unless otherwise stated business area Sample type Number of sites Number of samples or measurements per year Comments Water Quality Process Industries Regulation Radioactives Substances Regulation Waste Water (Environment and Effluent) Biological and microbiological Air and Water: Routine Ad hoc Radioactivity in the environment Waste, water, leachate and gas 130 fixed site continuous monitoring stations; Approximately 4,700 sites on rivers, estuaries, coastal waters, groundwater and effluents sampling points at 500 sites 500 sampling points and 296 sites 140 beaches and river bank sites 9 air and rainwater sites 32 drinking water sources 9 major nuclear sites Continuous measurements; 300,000 spot samples 57,000 spot samples 5354 measurements 5713 measurements Approximately 300 results Continuous monitors Daily samples (then bulked) 320 water samples; 172 liquid effluent samples and 2 solid waste consignments (BNFL Brigg) Approximately 76,000 Check monitoring at stack emissions for 1997/8. Will increase by approximately 1035 by 1999/2000. Check monitoring 1997/1998. Samples and field measurements R&D Technical Report X

19 business area Sample type Number of sites Number of samples or measurements per year Comments Land Quality Water Resources Soil and water on contaminated land River flow 14 ongoing projects Specific (i.e. Supplementary Credit Approval) sites 1,967 structures Includes weirs/flumes, rated 22,607 spot gauges sections, electromagnetic and ultrasonic gauges and depth gauges read daily. Groundwater levels 6,044 boreholes Boreholes measured monthly (some continuous monitors) Conservation Precipitation River Habitat Survey 1,193 charts 2,481 manually read 4569 sites Some collected by volunteers Already surveyed. No current plans to re-survey them. Fisheries River Corridor Surveys (km inspected in 1997/8) River length (km) surveyed for fish stocks and health 3,100 km 9,500 km R&D Technical Report X

20 business area Sample type Number of sites Number of samples or measurements per year Comments Flood Defence Condition of flood defence structures (km inspected) Sea 800km River 36,000km 1997 figures Flood Plain Survey 5,500 km 2 of fluvial floodplain covering flood risk hotspots Ongoing programme of mapping hotspots in fluvial flood plains. Due to finish in R&D Technical Report X

21 While there are numerous drivers for the environmental monitoring undertaken by the Environment, the implementation of the programmes is co-ordinated and integrated to maximise its cost-efficiency. Consequently, monitoring locations and data will be used to meet the needs of as many monitoring programmes as possible. In order to identify the monitoring data sets held internally by the, the following sources of summary information were consulted: Monitoring for What? A strategic review of the s Environmental information needs and monitoring programmes (EA, 1999) this document provides a summary of the s monitoring programmes with details of the parameters measured along with some information on data storage; Database of monitoring programmes this database was produced by the Collaborative Forum for Environmental Monitoring in 1999 as a single source of information on monitoring programmes undertaken by the members of the Forum (including the, SEPA, NERC and English Nature); Environmental Monitoring Manual this manual describe the details of each water quality monitoring programme undertaken by the with details on the parameters measured, sampling frequency and data storage. This information was supplemented with material provided by functions in response to enquiries made by the Climate Change Unit. Data sets arising from the examination of these sources have been catalogued in Appendices A and B. The has recently established the Environment Metadata Repository. This database is available to all staff from the desktop via the s intranet. The Metadata Repository is designed to keep a record of important sets of information that the holds. The data sets identified for this project were cross-d with those in the Metadata Repository and no significant additional data sets were found. 3.3 data sets The principle sources of information for the external data sets were those identified in the development of existing climate change impact indicators and a limited review of available data sets based on the expert knowledge of PISCES Conservation Ltd. Data sets arising from the examination of these sources have been catalogued in Appendices B and C. As well as the individual data sets identified, four metadatabases were identified that contained details of individual data sets. These were: United Kingdom Environmental Data Index (UKEDI) (see Proforma C22) this is a database of data set metadata compiled by NERC and containing mainly, but not exclusively, data sets generated by NERC laboratories and associated Universities; Inventory of Marine Observing Programmes (see Proforma C6); R&D Technical Report X

22 Climate Change and marine biodiversity (MARCLIM) (Proforma B1) This multiagency funded project is addressing the impacts of climate change on marine rocky shore communities; Global Population Dynamics database (Proforma C7) this database contains the largest collection of animal and plant population data in the world, and brings together nearly five thousand time series in one database (NERC Centre for Population Biology, Imperial College (1999)); These sources between them contain several thousand individual data sets. Although some, such as the long-term marine plankton recorder studies, Windermere perch, pike and phytoplankton, and the Rothamsted insect traps, are well known or supported by the, other lesser known sets may well require further review and assessment for their uses in the detection of climate change impacts. Many of the data sets may contain signals from both climate change and other anthropogenic influences and it may be difficult to attribute changes to the appropriate causes. These refer to habitats such as estuaries, rivers and terrestrial sites. There is clearly a renewed interest by others in long-term data as indicated by the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) project to produce an inventory of long-term studies on key habitats in the UK to support case work (Morgan, in prep.). Some of the listed sets may also be included in the published inventories. In addition to the data sources examined for this project, there are further sources that would be worthy of investigation, for example: water companies (e.g. Brian Moss of Liverpool University used chemical data (chloride concentrations) from a water intake source in the Norfolk Broads to detect reduced freshwater inputs to the system), reservoir outlets and records; untapped Environment record books and files that may not have been discarded, (e.g. old Lincolnshire chemical data reputedly may still be stored in outbuildings); a full collection of old water Board, River Board and River Authority reports where data summaries were included (may go back to the 1940s or earlier. Lester (1975) includes chemical data from the Trent for which must be from reports somewhere); retired individuals from the or earlier versions may have data they did not discard (e.g. The Woodiwiss collection of copies of Trent invertebrate data, Langford s early records from Lincolnshire); searches of individual operating power stations, water pumping stations, breweries, other industries, canal organisations, docks and harbour board records, Ministry of Defence (MoD) (e.g. sea temperatures) other than those listed for both current data and any historic records (the MoD reputedly has comprehensive records of sea temperatures which may be secret or not); and published scientific papers, grey literature reports from various organisations (e.g. universities, Nature Conservancy (now English Nature), Wildlife Trusts, single interest group societies (e.g. Butterfly, Dragonfly) from their archives. Archives of the R&D Technical Report X

23 Balfour-Browne Club and the Linnean Society (which has records back to the 1800s). Records at Kew and other regional botanical gardens and collections. Archives of local (e.g. Birmingham, Manchester) and national museums, professional institutions such as the Institute of Electrical Engineers, Civil Engineers, etc who may have old operational or project data from rivers, land or coastal waters. Table 3.3 summarises the data sets identified as a result of the investigations of all of the data sources. Table 3.3 Summary of data sets included Data set type Environmental compartment DPSIR stage business area (for data sets only) Data set Proforma Water I Water quality Surface Water A1 Abstraction Directive Water I Water quality Freshwater Fish A2 Directive Water I Water quality Dangerous Substances A3 Directive Water I Water quality List II substances A4 Water I Water quality Exchange of A5 information Decision Water I Water quality Urban Waste Water A6 Treatment Directive Water I Water quality Nitrate Directive A7 Water I Water quality Bathing Waters A8 Directive Water I Water quality Shellfish Waters A9 Directive Water I Water quality Titanium Dioxide A10 Directive Water I Water quality Harmonised Monitoring A11 Scheme Water I Water quality Paris Commission A12 inputs survey Water I Water quality North Sea A13 Water I Water quality National Marine A14 Monitoring Plan Water I Water quality Groundwater quality A15 Water I Water quality General Quality A16 Assessment (GQA) chemistry Water I Water quality GQA biology A17 Water I Water quality GQA nutrients A18 R&D Technical Report X

24 Data set type Environmental compartment DPSIR stage business area (for data sets only) Data set Proforma Water I Water quality GQA aesthetics rivers A19 Water I Water quality GQA aesthetics A20 coasts Water I Water quality Blue green algae A21 Water I Water quality Marine microalgae A22 Water I Water Flow in rivers A23 Resources Water I Water Groundwater level A24 Resources Water S Water Rainfall A25 Resources Water I Water Stocks reservoir flow A26 Resources series Water I Water National Abstraction A27 Resources Licence Database Water I Conservation River Habitat Survey A28 Water I Conservation River Corridor Surveys A29 Water I Fisheries Stock assessment A30 Water I Fisheries Fish counters A31 Water I Fisheries Fish Licence return data A32 Water I Flood Condition of flood A33 defence defence structures Water I Flood Barrier closures A34 defence Water P PIR Pollution Inventory A35 water Air P PIR Pollution Inventory A36 air Water I Water quality Thames estuary A37 recovery data sets Water I MARCLIM B1 supported supported Water/Terrestri al S + I Environmental Change Network (ECN) B2 supported supported Water/Terrestri al I National Biodiversity Network (NBN) Water I Severn estuary data set B4 B3 R&D Technical Report X

25 Data set type Environmental compartment DPSIR stage business area (for data sets only) Data set Proforma Water S UK National Tidal C1 Gauge Network Water I River Trent angler C2 catches Water I Cyprinid catches UK C3 rivers Terrestrial I Inventory of long-term C4 studies on terrestrial habitats Water I River Frome fish C5 movements Water S + I Inventory of UK C6 Marine Observing Programmes Air/Water/Terr I Global Population C7 estrial Dynamics database Water I Acid Waters C8 Monitoring Network Terrestrial I Biological Records C9 Centre Water I Various off-line C10 biological data sets Water I Various water quality C11 data sets Terrestrial I British Trust for C12 Ornithology (BTO) bird population data Water I Nutrient changes in C13 Irish Sea Terrestrial I EXAMINE C14 Water I UK Power stations C15 Water I Effects of power station C16 use on rivers Water I Operational monitoring C17 of power stations Water I Changing temperature C18 of river systems Terrestrial I Plant and climate C19 relationships in France Water I Seaweeds in Britain and Ireland C20 R&D Technical Report X

26 Data set type Environmental compartment DPSIR stage business area (for data sets only) Data set Proforma Water I Long-term data sets in C21 rivers Air/Water/ I UKEDI C22 Terrestrial Terrestrial I Rothamsted Insect C23 Survey Water I Plants of Lancaster C24 canal Terrestrial I Butterfly monitoring C25 scheme Terrestrial I Constant Efforts Sites C26 scheme Terrestrial I National Inventory of C27 Woodland and Trees I Incidence of Lyme C28 Disease in Humans Terrestrial I Park Grass experiment C29 Terrestrial I Arrival date of swallow C30 Water/ I UK Phenology network C31 Terrestrial Air S Long-term temperature C32 and precipitation records Terrestrial I UK Fire statistics C33 Air S + I UK National Air Quality Information Archive Water I Ice on Lake Windermere records Water I SAHFOS Continuous Plankton Recorder data Terrestrial I IACR Rothamsted crops data sets I Office of National Statistics information on human deaths C34 C35 C36 C37 C38 R&D Technical Report X

27 4. IDENTIFICATION OF DATA SETS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DETECT CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS 4.1 Introduction Following the identification of the environmental monitoring data sets, the next stage of the work was to assess their potential for identifying climate change impacts. 4.2 Climate change impacts Potential changes in the UK climate over the next century have been predicted and published as a set of scenarios by the UK Climate Change Impacts Programme (UKCIP) in 2002 (UKCIP02) (Hulme et al., 2002). The scenarios relate to possible combinations and levels of emissions. These have been labelled: Low Emissions, Medium-Low Emissions, Medium- High Emissions and High Emissions. These emissions scenarios form the input to the latest global climate model from the Hadley Centre to produce potential changes to the world s climate. These changes in global climate are then used as input to a higher resolution regional model, which simulates changes in UK climate on a grid with 50km resolution. The key results are summarised in Box 1. Box 1. Key changes in UK climate taken from UKCIP02 (Hulme et al., 2002) UK climate will 6 become warmer. By the 2080s, annual temperature averaged across the UK may 7 rise by between 2ºC for the Low Emissions scenario and by 3.5ºC for the High Emissions scenario. There will be greater warming in the south and east than in the north and west, and there may be greater warming in summer and autumn than in winter and spring. By the 2080s for the High Emissions scenario, parts of the southeast may be up to 5ºC warmer in summer. The temperature of UK coastal waters will also increase, although not as rapidly as over land. High summer temperatures will become more frequent and very cold winters will become increasingly rare. A very hot August, such as experienced in 1995 when temperatures over central England averaged 3.4ºC above normal, may occur one year in five by the 2050s for the Medium-High Emissions scenario, and as often as three years in five by the 2080s. Even for the Low Emissions scenario, by the 2080s about two summers in three may be as hot as, or hotter than, the exceptionally warm summer of Winters will become wetter and summers may become drier everywhere. The relative changes will be largest for the High Emissions scenario and in the south and east of the UK, 6 The word will is used where is High Confidence about an outcome. 7 The word may is used where there is less than High Confidence about an outcome. R&D Technical Report X

28 where summer precipitation may decrease by 50 per cent or more by the 2080s and winter precipitation may increase by up to 30 per cent. Summer soil moisture by the 2080s may be reduced by 40 per cent or more over large parts of England for the High Emissions scenario. Snowfall amounts will decrease throughout the UK. The reductions in average snowfall over Scotland might be between 60 and 90 per cent (depending on the region) by the 2080s for the High Emissions scenario. Heavy winter precipitation (rain and snow) will become more frequent. By the 2080s, winter daily precipitation intensities that are experienced once every two years on average may become between 5 per cent (Low Emissions) and 20 per cent (High Emissions) heavier. Relative sea level will continue to rise around most of the UK s shoreline. The rate of increase will depend on the natural vertical land movements in each region and on the emission scenario. By the 2080s, sea level may be between 2 cm below (Low Emissions) and 58 cm (High Emissions) above the current level in western Scotland, but between 26 and 86 cm above the current level in southeast England. Extreme sea levels will be experienced more frequently. For some east coast locations, extreme sea levels could occur between 10 and 20 times more frequently by the 2080s for the Medium-High Emissions scenario than they do now. The Gulf Stream may weaken in future and the changes in climate described by UKCIP02 scenarios reflect this. It is unlikely that this weakening would lead to a cooling of UK climate within the next 100 years. Not enough is understood about the factors that control this ocean circulation, however, to be completely confident about this prediction, especially in the longer term. The results from the scenarios indicate that the primary climate change state variables are: Air (and water) temperature regime; Precipitation (rainfall and snowfall) patterns; Sea level. The impacts of climate change arising from changes in these climate state variables are complex and potentially far reaching. The first order responses to the predicted changes in the climate state variables include the following and comprise the key climate change impact variables: Changes in the distribution of flora and fauna in response to changes in the temperature regime favouring species living at lower latitudes and altitudes; Changes in the flow regime of rivers (including the increased risk of flooding) and the level of groundwater as a result changes in the pattern of precipitation; Increased risk of coastal flooding and loss of coastal habitats as a result of rising sea levels. R&D Technical Report X

29 There is also a wide range of second order impacts resulting from changes, and responses to, these first order impacts. 4.3 Climate change impacts and the Environment The Environment has commissioned R&D to determine the potential impacts of climate change on its core business. In 1999, a document summarising the implications of climate change to the s core business was produced (ERM, 1999). This report examined the main implications of climate change for the by considering the 's role in contributing to UK greenhouse gas emission reductions and the potential impacts of a changing climate upon the environmental resources managed by the. The following bullet points indicate some potential impacts on the main functions: Flood defence increasingly severe storms and more intense rainfall will place evergreater demands on river and coastal flood defences, which are built and maintained by the (e.g. the Thames Barrier); Water resources much drier summers, particularly in the south east, will put a huge strain on inland water resources such as rivers and reservoirs. The s water conservation agenda and ongoing work with the water industry will be critical to ensure sufficient water to supply demand; Water quality possible increases in algal growth, reduced river flows from droughts and more sewer overflows caused by floods could all have significant effects; Air quality with more warm weather, ozone formations and concentrations of hydrocarbons will increase, with potentially harmful effects on people; Wildlife and conservation coastal habitats will be threatened by rising sea levels, wetlands could be subjected to drought and flooding, many species may struggle to adapt to fast-changing conditions while new species, some of which may be pests, could move in; Land quality hotter, drier summers will increase soil cracking, while wetter winters and more severe downpours will increase soil erosion. Agriculture will have to adapt to these changing conditions, and may experience radically different cropping patterns; Fisheries changes in sea temperatures may seriously affect certain fish species such as salmon; Navigation more rainfall in autumn and spring means higher river flows, which could restrict boating activities. R&D Technical Report X

30 4.4 Data sets with the potential to detect climate change impacts In assessing whether a data set has the potential to detect climate change impacts, six criteria were considered: 1. Potential direct or indirect link to climate state or impact variable; 2. Length of time series; 3. Regularly updated; 4. Quality assurance; 5. Data availability; 6. Confounding factors. Clearly, the most basic requirement for a monitoring data set to detect a climate change impact is to have a link (direct or indirect) to a climate change state or impact variable. The relevant climate change state variables considered were changes in air or water temperature, rainfall patterns or sea level. The climate change impact variables considered were the first order responses to changes in the state variables such as changes in flow regime resulting from changes in rainfall patterns or changes in animal and plant populations due to changes in air or water temperature. The length of the time series of a data set was an important consideration for two main reasons. Firstly, the variability from year to year in the climate variables is great and consequently a long time series is required in order to determine directional trends in any one variable. For example, the UKCIP02 scenarios (Hulme et al, 2002) provide information on change over 20, 50 and 80 year time horizons and demonstrations of changes in climate state variables such as the warming of central England and surrounding coastal waters only show directional change over the last 50 to 100 years (Figure 4.1). The issue of homogeneity in variation is also important in the response data set. Highly variable data sets such as river flows may need many years of data before reliable estimates of sustained directional change can be made. The proposed environmental change indicators (including those relevant to climate change) relevant to flood management and coastal defence (Environment, 2003a) were developed on using data sets with 20 full years of data. At the very least data sets with the potential to detect climate change impacts should have a multi-decadel time series. A further desirable feature of suitable data sets was that data was regularly (and frequently) updated and that for current monitoring programme data sets that this is ongoing. Similarly information on quality assurance for the data set was considered important. Data sets with information on quality assurance during sampling, analysis and data storage were considered most useful in this regard. R&D Technical Report X

31 Figure 4.1 The warming of central England climate (red) and surrounding UK coastal waters (blue). Deviations are relative to average. Note different scales (from Hulme et al., 2002) In order for data sets to be used by the for detecting climate change impacts, they need to be available to the appropriate staff with minimal effort and cost. A basic requirement was that the data should be stored electronically preferably on dedicated databases. Very few of the data sets evaluated will be available without some effort. Even those relating to monitoring programmes will probably need to be compiled from source databases and if data from more than one database are required (for example, a combination of chemical and biological data) some considerable effort may be required. Another issue related to data availability for external data sets is the costs involved for obtaining the data sets. In most cases, the will not have to pay for the data per se but may have to pay for the time of the host organisation to compile the data set in line with the request from the. The final criterion considered in the evaluation of the data sets was the influence of confounding factors on the ability of the data set to detect a climate change impact. Confounding factors influenced almost all of the data sets evaluated. This was to be expected because the data sets arose from monitoring programmes designed to detect the effects of impacts other than climate change. For example, changes in river flow regime will respond from climate change induced changes in rainfall patterns but will also be modified by changes in the land-use of the catchment (such as increased urbanisation), the effects of abstractions and discharges and modifications to the river channel. Table 4.1 summarises the application of these criteria in the evaluation of the data sets and their classification as having high, medium or low potential to detect climate change impacts. Further information on the reasons for the classification is provided on the data set proformas in Appendices A, B and C. R&D Technical Report X