The EU Productivity Gap

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1 The EU Productivity Gap Matilde Mas Universitat de València and Ivie Open Session Round Table: The Future of Europe from an International Perspective Madrid May 24th, 2016 This project has received funding from the European Union s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No

2 Per capita income growth (percentage), Labour Productivity growth is key for per capita income growth Productivity isn t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.- Paul Krugman Figure Labour 1. Labour productivity and per capita income, y = 1,01x + 0,21 R² = 0, Labour productivity growth (percentage), Source: Total Economy Database, May 2015 (TCB)

3 US Switzerland Australia Canada EU Taiwan Japan Korea Russia Brazil China India The EU should aim at improving its Labour Productivity Figure 1. Labour productivity. EU and non-eu countries, average (Thousands of 2014 US$) Average = Source: Total Economy Database, May 2015 (TCB) 3

4 China India Korea Taiwan Russia US Australia EU Canada Japan Switzerland Brazil The rate of growth of labour productivity (LP) in the EU has been modest Figure 2. Labour productivity growth. EU and Non-EU countries, (annual rates in percentages) Average = 1.9% Source: Total Economy Database, May 2015 (TCB) 4

5 The rate of growth of labour productivity (LP) in the EU has been modest Figure 3. Labour productivity growth. EU and Non-EU countries, (annual rates in percentages) Source: Total Economy Database, May 2015 (TCB) 5

6 The rate of growth of labour productivity (LP) in the EU has been modest Figure 3. Labour productivity growth. EU and Non-EU countries, (annual rates in percentages) Source: Total Economy Database, May 2015 (TCB) 6

7 The rate of growth of labour productivity (LP) in the EU has been modest Figure 3. Labour productivity growth. EU and Non-EU countries, (annual rates in percentages) Source: Total Economy Database, May 2015 (TCB) 7

8 The rate of growth of labour productivity (LP) in the EU has been modest Figure 3. Labour productivity growth. EU and Non-EU countries, (annual rates in percentages) Source: Total Economy Database, May 2015 (TCB) 8

9 LP growth have been lower in the EU than in other leading countries Figure 2: Productivity. Dynamics of other economies differences vs the EU28 average and (Thousands of 2010 euros PPS) a) Total economy 120 Lower than EU28 average & Converging II Higher than EU28 average & Converging II Higher than EU28 average & Diverging IV Difference Other economies - EU average (thousands of 2010 euros PPS) India China Russia Korea Japan Canada Taiwan Australia United States Note: EU28 aggregated labour productivity in 2006 = 56.4; in 2013 = EU28 manufacturing labour productivity in 2006 = 52.4; in 2013 = EU28 services labour productivity in 2006 = 52; in 2013 = Latest available data for Canada and Japan corresponds to Source: PREDICT database elaborated by Ivie and JRC-IPTS

10 Difference Other economies - EU average (thousands of 2010 euros PPS) In Manufacturing the gap decreased with respect to 3 countries Figure 2 (cont.): Productivity. Dynamics of other economies differences vs the EU28 average and (Thousands of 2010 euros PPS) b) Manufacturing 120 Lower than EU28 average & Diverging I Lower than EU28 average & Converging II EU28 average & Converging III Higher than EU28 average & Diverging IV India Australia China Russia Canada Japan Taiwan Korea United States 2006 Note: EU28 aggregated labour productivity in 2006 = 56.4; in 2013 = EU28 manufacturing labour productivity in 2006 = 52.4; in 2013 = EU28 services labour productivity in 2006 = 52; in 2013 = Latest available data for Canada and Japan corresponds to Source: PREDICT database elaborated by Ivie and JRC-IPTS 2013

11 Difference Other economies - EU average (thousands of 2010 euros PPS) but in Services, all countries have performed better Figure 2 (cont.): Productivity. Dynamics of other economies differences vs the EU28 average and (Thousands of 2010 euros PPS) c) Services 120 Lower than EU28 average & Converging II Higher than EU28 average & Converging III Higher than EU28 average & Diverging IV India China Russia Korea Canada Japan Australia Taiwan United States Note: EU28 aggregated labour productivity in 2006 = 56.4; in 2013 = EU28 manufacturing labour productivity in 2006 = 52.4; in 2013 = EU28 services labour productivity in 2006 = 52; in 2013 = Latest available data for Canada and Japan corresponds to Source: PREDICT database elaborated by Ivie and JRC-IPTS

12 Difference by industry US - EU average (thousands of 2010 euros PPS) The leadership of the US in LP with respect to the EU has widened during the period in all industries but two Figure 4. Productivity. Dynamics of US-EU differences by industry and 2013 (Thousands of 2010 of 2010 euros euros PPS) PPS) Higher than EU average & Converging 50 0 III Higher than EU average & Diverging IV 2013 ICT industries 1 Manufacture of electronic components and boards [261] 2 Manufacture of computers and peripheral equipment [262] 3 Manufacture of communication equipment [263] 4 Manufacture of consumer electronics [264] 5 Telecommunications [61] 6 Computer and related activities [5820, 62, 631, 951] Non-ICT industries 7 Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products [20] 8 Manufacture of pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical and botanical products [21] 9 Manufacture of machinery and equipment [27-28] 10 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers [29] 11 Manufacture of other transport equipment [30] 12 Transportation and storage [49-53] 13 Information and communication [58-63, except Computer and related activities] 14 Financial and insurance activities [64-63] 15 Professional, scientific and technical activities [69-75] 16 Administration and support service activities [76-82] 17 Education [85] 18 Human health and social work activities [86-88] Note: ICT sectors marked in bold. The codification of industries can be found in the box to the left (NACE Rev. 2 codes in brackets ). Source: PREDICTdatabase elaborated by Ivie and JRC-IPTS 12

13 MFP contribution was negative in the 5 big EU countries. Figure 6. Contributions to GDP growth, (Percentages) France Germany Italy Spain UK US ICT capital Non-ICT capital Hours worked Labour composition TFP GDP Source: APO, EU KLEMS, Jorgenson and Vu (2016), TCB and own elaboration 13

14 What might be the sources of EU disappointing performance? Warning: There is not an homogenous EU There are several potential factors - Lack of flexibility of the EU labour markets long-term uneployment; temporary employment; - Accumulation of capital during the boom years (excess capacity affecting productivity of capital) - Regulations (some of them under discussion with TTIP) - Lack of competition (roaming; collusive agreements; ) - Size and flexibility (in and out) of firms - Directive on Services in the internal market and its trasposition - Endowments of Intangible Assets o R&D o Other Intangible Assets: Organizational Capital and Training 14

15 Intangibles and Growth Empirical evidence shows a strong correlation between intangibles and LP growth (Corrado, Haskel, Jona-Lasinio and Iommi (2013)). Fernández de Guevera and Mas (2016) making use of the Spanish data disaggregated by industries. Corrado, Haskel and Jona-Lasinio (2014) also find: I. a complementary relation between ICT and intangible capital. II. significant spillovers of intangible capital. These results are not confirmed (at least not yet) for the Spanish disaggregated data. 15

16 United States Sweden United Kingdom Belgium Denmark France Finland Slovenia Netherlands EU15 Czech Republic Germany Austria Luxembourg Ireland Spain Portugal Italy Greece United States Sweden United Kingdom Italy Netherlands Austria Portugal Finland EU15 Belgium Czech Republic Germany Ireland France Denmark Slovenia Spain Greece Luxembourg US outperforms the EU in both, market and non-market GFCF in intangibles. Marked heterogeneity of EU15 countries. Sweden and UK in the first positions. The four peripheral countries at the low end. Figure 7. Share of GFCF on intangible assets over total GDP. EU15 and US. Average (percentages) a) Market sector b) Non-market sector EU15 average = 6.3% EU15 average = 0.9% Source: Eurostat, INTAN-Invest, SPINTAN and own elaboration. 16

17 The US presents higher BERD (business) and GBAORD (public) intensity than the EU28 Figure 8. BERD intensity (BERD/GDP) and GBAORD/GDP. EU and Non-EU countries, average (Percentages) a) BERD/GDP b) GBAORD/GDP Source: PREDICT database elaborated by Ivie and JRC-IPTS 17

18 Sweden Finland United States Germany Austria Denmark France Luxembourg Belgium EU15 Slovenia United Kingdom Czech Republic Netherlands Ireland Spain Italy Portugal Greece United States Sweden Austria Portugal Italy Czech Republic Denmark Finland Germany EU15 Belgium Netherlands United Kingdom France Spain Slovenia The gap with the US is higher in the non-market sector Figure 8. Share of GFCF on R&D over total GDP. EU15 and US. Average (percentages) a) Market sector b) Non-market sector EU15 average = 1.06% EU15 average = 0.29% Source: Eurostat, INTAN-Invest, SPINTAN and own elaboration. 18

19 United Kingdom United States Belgium Netherlands France Sweden Slovenia EU15 Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Czech Republic Germany Luxembourg Italy Denmark Spain Greece United States Belgium Italy Netherlands France Sweden Greece EU15 Ireland Finland Austria United Kingdom Denmark Portugal Slovenia Czech Republic Germany Spain Luxembourg UK leads the ranking of GFCF on organisational capital over GDP in the market sector and the US in the non-market. Figure 9. Share of GFCF on organisational capital over total GDP. EU-15 and US. Average (percentages) a) Market sector b) Non-market sector EU15 average = 1.6% EU15 average = 0.1% Source: Eurostat, Intan-INVEST, SPINTAN and own elaboration. 19

20 Denmark United States United Kingdom France Germany Netherlands Luxembourg EU15 Austria Ireland Sweden Slovenia Czech Republic Italy Belgium Finland Portugal Spain Greece United Kingdom Ireland United States Germany EU15 Czech Republic Belgium Finland Sweden Netherlands Slovenia Italy France Portugal Greece Luxembourg Austria Denmark Spain In training GFCF Denmark (followed by the US) takes the leading role in the market sector and the UK in non-market. US is above the EU15 average. Figure 10. Share of GFCF on training over total GDP. EU-15 and US. Average (percentages) a) Market sector b) Non-market sector EU15 average = 0.8% EU15 average = 0.3% Source: Eurostat, INTAN-Invest, SPINTAN and own elaboration. 20

21 Concluding Remarks The EU has a serious productivity problem. The gap with respect to the US has increased, specially since The Asian countries are rapidly closing the gap with the EU. In fact Taiwan has already surpassed it. All nine leading countries considered had a higher LP growth than the EU during the period at the aggregate level, and even more so in the services industries. In all 18 sectors analized, labour productivity in the US is higher than in the EU. And the gap has increased in almost (16) all of them. From the various potential explanations, we have concentrated in intangible assets endowments Total Intangible capital, as well as in three of its main components: R&D; organizational capital; and on-the-job training, the superiority of the US is overhelming both for the market and nonmarket economy. Greece, Italy and Spain are lagging behind also in all of them. 21

22 The EU Productivity Gap Matilde Mas Universitat de València and Ivie Open Session Round Table: The Future of Europe from an International Perspective Madrid May 24th, 2016 This project has received funding from the European Union s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No

41 T Korea, Rep. 52.3. 42 T Netherlands 51.4. 43 T Japan 51.1. 44 E Bulgaria 51.1. 45 T Argentina 50.8. 46 T Czech Republic 50.4. 47 T Greece 50.

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