Machine Learning model evaluation. Luigi Cerulo Department of Science and Technology University of Sannio

Transcription

1 Machine Learning model evaluation Luigi Cerulo Department of Science and Technology University of Sannio

2 Accuracy To measure classification performance the most intuitive measure of accuracy divides the proportion of correct predictions by the total number of predictions. Suppose a classifier correctly identified whether or not 99,990 out of 100,000 newborn babies are carriers of a treatable but potentially-fatal genetic defect! ACC = ERR =1 TP + TN TP + TN + FP + FN ACC ACC = 99.99% ERR =0.01%

3 Accuracy An accuracy of % appear to indicate an extremely accurate classifier. But, what if the genetic defect is found in only 10 out of every 100,000 babies? A stupid classifier that predicts always "no defect" will still be correct for percent of all cases. In this case, even though the predictions are correct for the large majority of data, the classifier is not very useful for its intended purpose, which is to identify children with birth defects!

4 Utility measure The best measure of classifier performance is whether the classifier is successful at its intended purpose. For this reason, it is crucial to have measures of model performance that measure utility rather than raw accuracy.

5 Necessary data to evaluate a classifier Actual class values. Predicted class values. Estimated probability of the prediction.

6 A closer look at confusion matrices A confusion matrix is a table that categorizes predictions according to whether they match the actual value in the data. One of the table's dimensions indicates the possible categories of predicted values while the other dimension indicates the same for actual values. Although, we have only seen 2 x 2 confusion matrices so far, a matrix can be created for a model predicting any number of classes.

7 Positive and Negative class The most common performance measures consider the model's ability to discern one class versus all others. The class of interest is known as the positive class, while all others are known as negative. The relationship between positive class and negative class predictions can be depicted as a 2 x 2 confusion matrix that tabulates whether predictions fall into one of four categories: True Positive (TP): Correctly classified as the class of interest True Negative (TN): Correctly classified as not the class of interest False Positive (FP): Incorrectly classified as the class of interest False Negative (FN): Incorrectly classified as not the class of interest

8 Beyond accuracy other measures of performance Different measures have been developed and used for specific purposes in disciplines as diverse as medicine, information retrieval, marketing, and signal detection theory, among others. The Classification and Regression Training (caret) R package includes functions for computing many such performance measures. This package provides a large number of tools for preparing, training, evaluating, and visualizing machine learning models and data.

9 Confusion matrix computed with caret function

10 Kappa statistic The kappa statistic adjusts accuracy by accounting for the possibility of a correct prediction by chance alone. Accuracy = P(A=no,P=no) + P(A=yes,P=yes) probability of a correct prediction due to classifier P(expected) = P(A=no)P(P=no) + P(A=yes)P(P=yes) probability of a correct prediction due to chance (independence assumption) Kappa = Accuracy P (Expected) 1 P (expected)

11 Kappa statistic ACC = = 98% P (expected) = = 98% Kappa = =

12 Sensitivity and Specificity Classification often involves a balance between being overly conservative and overly aggressive in decision making. For example, an filter could guarantee to eliminate every spam message by aggressively eliminating nearly every ham message at the same time. On the other hand, a guarantee that no ham messages will be inadvertently filtered might allow an unacceptable amount of spam to pass through the filter. This tradeoff is captured by a pair of measures: sensitivity and specificity.

13 Sensitivity and Specificity The sensitivity of a model (aka true positive rate), measures the proportion of positive examples that were correctly classified. sensitivity = TP TP + FN The specificity of a model (aka true negative rate), measures the proportion of negative examples that were correctly classified. specificity = TN TN + FP

14 Diagnosis test

15 Sensitivity and Specificity Sensitivity and specificity range from 0 to 1, with values close to 1 being more desirable. It is important to find an appropriate balance between the two. 87.2% of spam msg were correctly classified as spam 16.8% of spam were wrongly kept as ham 99.9% of ham msg were correctly classified as ham 0.1% of ham were wrongly rejected as spam

16 Precision and Recall Closely related to sensitivity and specificity are two other performance measures, related to compromises made in classification: precision and recall. Used primarily in the context of information retrieval, these statistics are intended to provide an indication of how interesting and relevant a model's results are, or whether the predictions are diluted by meaningless noise.

17 Precision and Recall The Precision (aka positive predictive value) is defined as the proportion of positive examples that are truly positive; in other words, when a model predicts the positive class, how often is it correct? precision = TP TP + FP The Recall is a measure of how complete the results are. It is defined as the number of true positives over the total number of positives. (it is the same as sensitivity). recall = TP TP + FN

18 F-measure A measure of model performance that combines precision and recall into a single number is known as the F- measure (aka F1 score or the F-score) Combines precision and recall using the harmonic mean. The harmonic mean is used rather than the more common arithmetic mean since both precision and recall are expressed as proportions between zero and one. 2 precision recall 2 TP F-measure= = recall + precision 2 TP + FP + FN

19 Estimated probability of prediction Even though the classifier makes a single prediction about each example, it may be more confident about some decisions than others. For instance, a classifier may be 99% certain that a SMS with the words "free" and "ringtones" is 99% spam, but is only 51% certain that a SMS with the word "tonight" is spam. In both cases, the classifier predicts a spam, but it is far more certain about one decision than the other. Studying these internal prediction probabilities is useful to evaluate the model performance. If two models make the same number of mistakes, but one is more able to accurately assess its uncertainty, then it is a smarter model.

20 SVM model with probabilities

21 Performance tradeoffs Visualizations are often helpful for understanding how the performance of machine learning algorithms varies from situation to situation. Rather than thinking about a single pair of statistics such as sensitivity and specificity, or precision and recall, visualizations allow you to examine how measures vary across a wide range of values.

22 Performance tradeoffs The ROC curve (Receiver Operating Characteristic) is commonly used to examine the tradeoff between the detection of true positives, while avoiding the false positives. ROC curves were developed by engineers in the field of communications around the time of World War II; receivers of radar and radio signals needed a method to discriminate between true signals and false alarms.

23 ROC curve

24 ROC curve The points comprising ROC curves indicate the true positive rate at varying false positive thresholds. To create the curves, a classifier's predictions are sorted by the model's estimated probability of the positive class, with the largest values first. Beginning at the origin, each prediction's impact on the true positive rate and false positive rate will result in a curve tracing vertically (for a correct prediction), or horizontally (for an incorrect prediction).

25 ROC curve

26 Area under the ROC curve (AUC) The closer the curve is to the perfect classifier, the better it is at identifying positive values. This can be measured using a statistic known as the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The AUC, as you might expect, treats the ROC diagram as a two-dimensional square and measures the total area under the ROC curve = A (outstanding) = B (excellent/good) = C (acceptable/fair) = D (poor) = F (no discrimination)

27 ROC curve with ROCR package

28 AUC with ROCR package

29 PR curve ROCR package

30 Average curves The ROCR package prediction function is able to calculate average curves. In such case multiple prediction/test vectors must be organized as column matrices.

31 Estimating future performance To estimate future performance the model trained on a training set should be tested on a test set that has not been seen by the model. When prediction is performed on training data the only performance that can be estimated is the resubstitution error, which occurs when the training data is incorrectly predicted in spite of the model being built directly from this data. This information is intended to be used as a rough diagnostic, particularly to identify obviously poor performers. The resubstitution error is not a very useful marker of future performance.

32 The hold out method Partitioning data into training and test datasets. The training dataset is used to generate the model, which is then applied to the test dataset to generate predictions for evaluation. 2/3 1/3

33 Train, Validation, Test To avoid choosing a best model based upon the results of repeated testing it is better to divide the original data so that in addition to the training and test datasets, a third validation dataset is available. The validation dataset would be used for iterating and refining the model or models chosen, leaving the test dataset to be used only once as a final step to report an estimated error rate for future predictions. 1/2 train 1/4 validation 1/4

34 Class representation One problem with holdout sampling is that each partition may have a larger or smaller proportion of some classes. In certain cases, particularly those in which a class is a very small proportion of the dataset, this can lead a class to be omitted from the training dataset In such cases the model cannot then learn this class.

35 Stratification In order to reduce the chance that a class is over/ underrepresented, a technique called stratified random sampling can be used. Although, on average, a random sample will contain roughly the same proportion of class values as the full dataset, stratified random sampling ensures that the generated random partitions have approximately the same proportion of each class as the full dataset. The caret package provide the createdatapartition() function to do that.

36 Stratification

37 Bias Although stratification distributes the classes evenly, stratified sampling does not guarantee other types of representativeness. Some samples may have too many or too few difficult cases easy-to-predict cases outliers. This is especially true for smaller datasets, which may not have a large enough portion of such cases to divide among training and test sets.

38 Repeated holdout Repeated holdout is sometimes used to mitigate the problems of randomly composed training datasets. The repeated holdout method uses the average result from several random holdout samples to evaluate a model's performance. As multiple holdout samples are used, it is less likely that the model is trained or tested on non-representative data. But repeated random samples could potentially use the same record more than once.

39 k-fold Cross Validation k-fold CV randomly divides the data into k completely separate random partitions called folds. Empirical evidence suggests that with more than 10 folds no added benefit can be observed.

40 Cross Validation in R

41 Average ROC curves

42 Exercises 1.On the SMS spam detection dataset evaluate knn, Naive Bayes, and SVM with a 10-fold cross validation and find which is the best performing algorithm in terms of AUC and F-measure.