The New York Noncustodial Parent EITC: Its Impact on Child Support Payments and Employment


 Octavia Pitts
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1 The New York Noncustodl Prent EITC: Its Impct on Chld Support Pyments nd Employment Austn Nchols, Elne Sorensen, nd ye Lppold The Urbn Insttute June 27, 2012 Support for ths reserch ws provded by the Federl Offce of Chld Support Enforcement under grnt number 90FI0096 nd by the Smth Rchrdson Foundton under grnt number The vews expressed n ths pper re those of the uthors nd do not necessrly reflect the vews of the New York Offce of Temporry nd Dsblty Assstnce, the New York Deprtment of Txton nd Fnnce, the Urbn Insttute, ts trustees, or ts funders. The uthors thnk the New York Offce of Temporry nd Dsblty Assstnce for provdng the dt used n ths pper nd for provdng useful comments on erler drfts.
2 Tble of Contents Executve Summry... I. Introducton... 1 II. Polcy Interventon... 2 A. The Federl EITC... 2 B. The New York Stte EITC... 2 C. The Noncustodl Prent EITC... 3 III. Potentl Incentve Effect of the Noncustodl Prent EITC... 5 IV. Study Fndngs... 6 A. Trends n Elgblty, Recept, nd Averge Beneft... 6 B. Profles of Noncustodl Prents... 8 C. Regresson Results V. Conclusons VI. References VII. Appendces A. Methodology Used to Produce the Regresson Results B. Dt Used n the Report C. Appendx Tbles... 27
3 Lst of Fgures nd Tbles FIGURES Fgure 1. Vlue of the NCP EITC nd the NYS EITC for Sngle Flers, Fgure 2. Proporton of Noncustodl Prents who Pd ther Chld Support n Full by Age of Youngest Chld, All Orders, TABLES Tble 1. Noncustodl Prents Elgble For nd Recevng the NCP EITC, Tble 2. Demogrphc Chrcterstcs of Specfc Groups of Noncustodl Prents n New York, Tble 3.Economc Chrcterstcs of Specfc Groups of Noncustodl Prents n New York, Tble 4. Estmted Dscontnuty n the Proporton Pyng n Full t Age by Yer Tble 5. Estmted Dscontnuty n the Proporton Pyng n Full, the Proporton Elgble for Net Beneft from the NCP EITC, the Amount of the Net Beneft, nd Ther Assocted Locl Wld Estmtors Tble 6. Estmted Dscontnutes for the Amount of Chld Support Pd nd Whether Noncustodl Prents Erned More thn $3,000 Yer Tble 7. Estmted Dscontnutes for Three Outcome Vrbles, Ordered Amount Less thn $3,000 Yer Tble 8. Locl Wld Estmtors LWE for Three Outcome Vrbles, Ordered Amount Less thn $3,000 Yer...
4 Executve Summry In 2006, New York nsttuted new erned ncome tx credt EITC for lowncome noncustodl prents to encourge them to work nd py chld support, buldng on the success of the New York Stte EITC frst encted n The orgnl New York Stte EITC hs been credted wth reducng poverty mong lowncome workng fmles whle motvtng them to work nd reduce ther relnce on publc ssstnce. Bsed on ths postve experence wth the stte EITC, the New York Legslture decded to expnd the EITC to lowncome noncustodl prents who py ther full chld support, cretng noncustodl prent EITC NCP EITC. Ths credt s smlr to other New York Stte EITCs; t s refundble tx credt vlble to those who fle New York stte ncome tx return nd meet certn elgblty crter. The credt ms to motvte lowncome noncustodl prents to work nd py ther chld support n full. Ths study exmnes whether the NCP EITC encourged work nd chld support pyments durng ts frst few yers. Frst, we revew the number of noncustodl prents who receved the NCP EITC, whch ncresed 50 percent from 2006 the frst yer of the credt to 2010 the ltest yer n whch dt re vlble. Whle severl fctors hve contrbuted to ths ncrese, greter wreness of the credt ppers to be plyng role. In 2006, the frst yer of the tx credt, just over 5,100 noncustodl prents receved the tx credt; by 2010, ths number exceeded 7,700, 50 percent ncrese. We lso descrbe the chrcterstcs of noncustodl prents who receved the NCP EITC n 2009, the ltest yer for whch cselevel dt re vlble. We fnd tht most recpents re whte mles, nd ther medn ge s 36 yers old. Nerly 60 percent of these prents owe chld support for just one chld. Ther medn reported ncome s $20,717. The medn mount of chld support pd s $3,628. Just over 40 percent of the recpents 42 percent owe chld support rrers; the medn mount of rrers owed s $409. Most recpents of the tx credt re whte mles who owe chld support for one chld. To evlute the NCP EITC s mpct, we use rgorous method clled regresson dscontnuty model. Ths method tkes dvntge of dscontnuty n the elgblty for the NCP EITC to mesure ts effect. Specfclly, we explot the fct tht ndvduls re elgble for the NCP EITC f they hve chldren under yers old for whom they owe chld support. In New York, nerly ll prents re oblgted to py chld support for ther chldren untl they turn 21. So, f we see tht chld support pyments or work fll sgnfcntly s chldren turn, ths suggests tht the NCP EITC my be ffectng these outcomes. We lso exmne these dscontnutes before the NCP EITC ws encted to see whether they exsted before the tx credt. Usng ths method, we fnd tht the NCP EITC ncresed the proporton of noncustodl prents pyng ther chld support n full by pproxmtely 1 percentge pont. In 2009, 56 percent of noncustodl prents n New York who hd chld support order for t lest hlf the yer pd
5 ther chld support n full. Becuse of the NCP EITC, ths fgure s 1 percentge pont hgher thn t would otherwse be, menng bout 2,300 more prents pd ther chld support n full. The Noncustodl Prent EITC ncresed the percent of noncustodl prents pyng ther chld support n full by one percentge pont, ddng 2,300 full pyng prents. As noted bove, the m of the NCP EITC s to encourge work nd chld support pyments mong lowncome noncustodl prents. Thus, t s not surprsng tht the mpct of the credt s reltvely smll mong ll noncustodl prents regrdless of ther ncome level. The queston s: Wht mpct dd t hve on lowncome noncustodl prents? Unfortuntely, we cnnot lmt our mpct nlyss to lowncome noncustodl prents becuse the credt nfluences the decson to work nd the mount erned. Thus, lmtng our nlyss to lowncome noncustodl prents would bs our results, possbly suggestng postve effect on chld support pyments nd work when n fct there s none. However, we cn exmne noncustodl prents wth low chld support orders, whch re ssocted wth low ncomes, snce order mounts re not nfluenced by the credt. When we lmt our nlyss to noncustodl prents wth low chld support orders below $3,000 yer, we fnd tht mong these prents, the NCP EITC sgnfcntly ncresed chld support complnce nd the lkelhood of workng. Specfclly, the NCP EITC ncresed the shre pyng n full by 2 percentge ponts nd ncresed the shre workng by 1.6 percentge ponts. Among prents wth low orders, the Noncustodl Prent EITC ncresed the percent of noncustodl prents pyng ther full chld support by 2 percentge ponts nd ncresed the percent workng by 1.6 percentge ponts. These estmtes my represent upperbound estmtes of the NCP EITC s mpct becuse we re not subtrctng the dscontnutes tht occurred before enctment of the NCP EITC. Bsed on the dt vlble, we estmte tht these pror dscontnutes re smll nd nsgnfcnt, so we focus on the dscontnutes fter the tx credt ws encted. However, ths my result n n overestmte of the NCP EITC s mpct. On the other hnd, we re estmtng the tx credt s mpct n ts frst few yers. We ntcpte tht the ncentve effect wll grow over tme s more prents become wre of the credt. We conclude by dscussng lterntve optons for expndng the NCP EITC. The frst pproch we dscuss s ncresng the mount of the NCP EITC. Incresng the mount of the credt hs two benefts: more prents wll receve n ncentve to py ther chld support n full, nd more prents who lredy py ther chld support n full wll clm the credt, ncresng the NCP EITC prtcpton rte. Another suggeston s llowng noncustodl prents to receve the NCP EITC nd the New York Stte EITC f they re elgble for both. Currently, noncustodl prents cnnot receve both credts; they must select the hgher one. Ths mens tht most lowncome prents who hve custody of some chldren but owe chld support for others re not elgble for the NCP EITC nd thus re not ncentvzed to py ther chld support n full. We lso dscuss extendng the NCP EITC to noncustodl prents who py prt or none of ther chld support. v
6 I. Introducton Durng the pst two decdes, Congress nd stte legsltures hve encted polces to help lowncome fmles mke ends meet nd encourge work. Incresng the erned ncome tx credt, trnsformng the csh ssstnce progrm nto workfrst progrm, nd strengthenng chld support enforcement hve been key elements of ths polcy mx. Tody, mny lowncome fmles escpe poverty becuse they work nd receve the EITC nd chld support. However, lowncome noncustodl prents re nelgble for the EITC for fmles wth qulfyng chldren, even when they work nd py chld support n full. Mny noncustodl prents who work nd py chld support lve n poverty nd could beneft from tx credt. After successfully reducng poverty mong custodl fmles through welfre reform nd n expnded EITC, the New York stte Legslture decded to pply the sme polcy levers to lowncome noncustodl prents. In June 2006, the legslture encted the Strengthenng Fmles Through Stronger Fthers Inttve, whch estblshed refundble noncustodl prent EITC nd funded employmentorented plot progrms cross the stte. 1 New York becme the frst stte n the country to enct ths combnton of servces for lowncome noncustodl prents. Legslton hs snce been ntroduced to crete smlr federl tx credt nd employment progrms. Ths legslton ws frst ntroduced n the 109th Congress by sentors Byh nd Obm S nd ws rentroduced n the 112th Congress by Rep. Dnny Dvs H.R The purpose of the New York NCP EITC s to support lowncome noncustodl prents who re workng nd pyng chld support. It lso ms to encourge more lowncome prents to do the sme. The NCP EITC s dmnstered through the New York tx code nd opertes lke other New York Stte EITCs. Noncustodl prents must fle New York stte tx return nd meet other elgblty crter to receve the tx credt. If they re elgble, the mount of the tx credt s determned s percentge of the federl EITC. Ths provson of the New York Stte Tx Lw Secton 606 d1 ws extended by Artcle VII budget bll chpter 59 of the lws of 2012 untl Ths report focuses on the New York NCP EITC nd exmnes whether the new credt hs encourged noncustodl prents to work nd py chld support. Frst, we descrbe the federl nd New York Stte EITCs, followed by the New York NCP EITC. Then we present descrptve results nd quntttve estmtes of the NCP EITC s effect on chld support nd work. Dt nd methods used n ths report re dscussed n the ppendx. Erler reports by the Urbn Insttute bout the New York NCP EITC hve lredy exmned the tx credt s mplementton nd reported on frstyer outcomes see Sorensen The Urbn Insttute hs lredy publshed n mpct evluton of the plot employment progrms mplemented s prt of the Strengthenng Fmles Through Stronger Fthers. See Lppold nd Sorensen
7 II. Polcy Interventon Snce ll New York Stte EITCs re desgned s percentge of the federl EITC, we wll strt wth bref overvew of the federl erned ncome tx credt. We then dscuss the New York Stte EITC, followed by descrpton of New York s noncustodl prent EITC. A. The Federl EITC The federl EITC s one of the lrgest ncome support progrms n the country, provdng $59.2 bllon n benefts to 21 mllon lowncome workng fmles wth chldren nd $1.6 bllon n benefts to 6 mllon lowncome workers wthout qulfyng chldren n The federl EITC s prmry gols re fnnclly supportng lowncome workng fmles nd provdng n ncentve to work. The federl EITC s wdely credted wth ncresed lbor force prtcpton mong sngle mothers durng the 1990s Ess nd Hoynes 2006; Hotz, Mulln, nd Scholz 2005; Meyer nd Rosenbum Federl EITC elgblty depends on txpyer s ncome nd flng sttus, mong other requrements. The sze of the credt depends on the number of qulfyng chldren txpyer hs. A qulfyng chld resdes wth the txpyer for more thn hlf the yer nd s ether younger thn 19, fulltme student under ge 24, or permnently nd totlly dsbled chld of ny ge. The chld must lso be the chld or sblng of the txpyer or descendent of the txpyer s chld or sblng. For workers wthout qulfyng chldren, chldless EITC s vlble for those between 25 nd 64 yers old. The federl EITC structure cn be broken up nto three phses: phsen, plteu, nd phseout. Intlly, the credt s percentge of ncome, nd t rses untl t hts mxmum mount. The credt then plteus, styng t tht mxmum mount even s ncome goes up. When ernngs go beyond the plteu mount, the credt begns to declne nd ultmtely phses out. A key feture of the EITC s tht t s refundble, so f the mount of the credt exceeds the mount of txes owed, the txpyer gets refund. In 2009, federl EITCs could be s much s $3,956 for txpyers wth one qulfyng chld, $6,536 for txpyers wth two qulfyng chldren, nd $7,354 for txpyers wth three or more qulfyng chldren. For txpyers wth no qulfyng chldren, the credt ws mxmum of $594. B. The New York Stte EITC New York nd 24 other sttes hve stte EITC. 3 In 2009, the New York Stte NYS EITC ws 30 percent of the federl EITC. 4 Lke the federl EITC, the NYS EITC s refundble for stte resdents. To receve the New York Stte EITC, tx flers must clm the federl EITC nd meet 2 IRS, SOI Tx Stts Indvdul Income Tx Returns, Tble 4. Returns wth Erned Income Credt, by Sze of Adjusted Gross Income, Tx Yer For more nformton bout the New York Stte EITC nd lst of other sttes tht hve stte EITC, see New York Stte Deprtment of Txton nd Fnnce New York Cty lso hs n EITC, whch, n 2009, ws 5 percent of the federl EITC. 2
8 other elgblty crter. In 2009, pproxmtely 1,576,000 New York tx flers receved NYS EITC. The totl cost of provdng these credts n 2009 ws $966.9 mllon NYS Deprtment of Txton nd Fnnce [DTF] C. The Noncustodl Prent EITC In 2006, New York estblshed the noncustodl prent EITC, whch s lso refundble tx credt. It s vlble to ndvduls who meet the followng elgblty crter durng the tx yer. The person must 1. be fullyer resdent of New York stte; 2. be yers old or older t the end of the tx yer; 3. be prent of chld who dd not resde wth hm or her n the tx yer nd who ws under t the end of the tx yer; 4. provde the nmes, reltonshps, nd dtes of brth of up to two chldren who meet crter #3; 5 5. hve current chld support order pyble through the New York chld support collecton unt for t lest hlf of the yer; 6 6. hve pd ll the chld support he or she owes for the tx yer; 7. hve federl djusted gross ncome nd totl erned ncome below the mxmum ncome level for the noncustodl prent EITC $35,463 n 2009; 8. hve Socl Securty number tht llows hm or her to work or tht s vld for federl erned ncome tx purposes the person s spouse must lso meet ths requrement f flng jont return; 9. hve federl flng sttus tht s not mrred flng seprtely; 10. not fle federl forms relted to foregn erned ncome; 11. hve less thn $2,800 n nvestment ncome; nd 12. hve totl erned ncome tht s postve. The mount of the credt cn be determned n two dfferent wys, wth the txpyer recevng whchever mount s greter. The credt s equl to ether 20 percent of the federl EITC tht would be llowed f the noncustodl chld met the defnton of qulfyng chld, computed s f the txpyer hd one qulfyng chld nd wthout the beneft of the jont return phseout mount; or 2.5 tmes the federl EITC tht would be llowed f the txpyer hd no qulfyng chldren. Fgure 1 shows the New York stte tx credt mounts for noncustodl prents who fled s sngle ndvduls n 2009 by ther ncome level. Becuse the NCP EITC s bsed on the hgher 5 The New York NCP EITC tx form IT209 sks for the Socl Securty numbers of the chldren who do not lve wth the prent, but the nstructons for 2008 nd forwrd sy tht the Socl Securty numbers re not requred. Thus, we dd not lst the Socl Securty number of the chldren s requrement. 6 Becuse the New York Deprtment of Txton nd Fnnce requres Socl Securty number to mtch chld support elgble noncustodl prents to ther tx records, the Offce of Temporry nd Dsblty Assstnce only trnsfers the nmes of noncustodl prents who meet ll chld support elgblty crter nd hve Socl Securty number n the New York chld support dt system. 3
9 of two clcultons from the federl EITC, ts structure dffers from the NYS EITC. In 2009, the noncustodl prent EITC rose wth ncome untl t reched ts mxmum mount of $1,143. The credt remned t ths level whle ncome ws between $5,970 nd $7,470. After tht, the credt declned s ncome ncresed, fllng from $1,143 to $609, untl ncome reched $9,916. The credt remned t $609 s ncome rose from $9,916 to $16,420. Then the credt phsed out s ncome rose to mxmum threshold of $35,463. It s mportnt to note tht noncustodl prents cnnot clm both the noncustodl prent EITC nd the New York Stte EITC. If noncustodl prent clms the federl EITC, then he or she s nstructed to clculte the mount of both the NCP nd NYS EITCs nd select the hgher of the two credts. $1,697 $1,508 $1,143 $913 $609 $137 S Source: Authors clcultons bsed on nstructons for 2009 New York tx returns. As fgure 1 shows, sngle noncustodl prents wth no qulfyng chldren re lwys better off clmng the noncustodl prent EITC s opposed to the stte EITC. On the other hnd, sngle noncustodl prents who hve qulfyng chldren my be better off clmng the stte EITC thn the noncustodl prent EITC, dependng on ther ncome level. In fct, sngle noncustodl prents wth ny qulfyng chldren nd ncome greter thn $8,769 re lwys better off clmng the NYS EITC thn the NCP EITC snce the NYS EITC s lwys greter thn the NCP EITC for these prents. 4
10 III. Potentl Incentve Effect of the Noncustodl Prent EITC The NCP EITC cretes n ncentve for noncustodl prents to py ther chld support n full becuse t provdes subsdy to those who do. The ncentve s equl to the ddtonl tx credt vlble when chld support orders re fully pd. As noted bove, noncustodl prents cnnot receve both the regulr NYS EITC nd the NCP EITC; they re nstructed to select the hgher credt. Thus, the ddtonl tx credt vlble to those who py ther chld support n full s equl to the dfference between the NCP EITC credt nd the NYS EITC credt both credts re shown n fgure 1, whch we refer to s the net beneft of the NCP EITC. The mxmum net beneft of the NCP EITC s the lrgest for noncustodl prents who qulfy for the NCP EITC but not for the NYS EITC. Ths group conssts of noncustodl prents who hve no qulfyng chldren for the NYS EITC nd re not elgble for the chldless NYS EITC becuse ther ncomes re bove the mxmum ncome llowed $13,440 n 2009 or they re outsde the elgble ge rnge 25 to 64 yers old. For these ndvduls, ther net beneft equls the totl credt mount. In 2009, the mxmum credt ws $1,134, whch ws vlble for those wth djusted gross ncomes between $5,970 nd $7,470 tht yer. If djusted gross ncomes were below or bove these mounts, the credt ws less. The credt dsppered when noncustodl prents djusted gross ncomes reched $35,463. For ndvduls who re elgble for the noncustodl prent EITC nd the chldless New York Stte EITC, the mxmum net beneft of the NCP EITC ws $1,005 n 2009, whch ws vlble to ndvduls ernng $5,970 to $7,470 yer. If ther ncomes were below or bove these mounts, the net beneft ws less. For noncustodl prents elgble for the NCP EITC nd the NYS EITC wth qulfyng chldren, the mxmum net beneft of the NCP EITC s much lower nd the beneft phses out t much lower ncome levels. In 2009, the mxmum net beneft of the NCP EITC ws $534 for noncustodl prents who were elgble for the NYS EITC wth one qulfyng chld nd who fled s sngle ndvduls. Further, the mxmum net beneft mount ws only vlble for those who hd djusted gross ncomes of $5,970 yer. Once these prents ncomes were bove $8,769, the net beneft of the NCP EITC ws zero. For noncustodl prents wth two or more qulfyng chldren, the mxmum net benefts re even lower nd dspper t even lower levels of ncome. In 2009, the NCP EITC hd no ncentve effect for noncustodl prents wth qulfyng chldren once ther ncomes exceeded $8,769 yer. The net beneft from the NCP EITC lso depends on the sze of the noncustodl prent s chld support orders. In generl, smller chld support orders re eser to py n full thn lrger ones; thus, ll thngs equl, noncustodl prents wth lower orders wll be more encourged by the NCP EITC to comply wth ther order thn noncustodl prents wth hgher orders. For exmple, someone who owes $600 yer nd ntcptes n $800 net beneft from the EITC hs strong ncentve to py n full, snce the effectve subsdy rte s more thn 100 percent. In contrst, someone who owes $6,000 yer nd expects n $800 net beneft from the EITC hs much less ncentve to py n full. 5
11 Fnlly, the net beneft of the NCP EITC depends on the mount of chld support rrers noncustodl prent owes. If person owes chld support rrers, federl lw requres tht the person s federl ncome tx refund be ntercepted nd used to reduce the debt. New York, lke most sttes tht hve n ncome tx, lso ntercepts stte ncome tx refunds nd pples those to person s rrers. Ths mens tht f noncustodl prent pys hs chld support n full but owes chld support rrers, the credt wll go towrd reducng hs rrers. Whle ths benefts the prent, t does not hve the sme ncentve effect tht recevng tx credt would. So, ndvduls who owe rrers re less ncentvzed by the NCP EITC thn ndvduls who do not owe rrers. IV. Study Fndngs In ths secton, we dscuss the nnul tkeup rte for the NCP EITC from 2006 to 2009, present profles of vrous groups of noncustodl prents n New York relevnt for ths nlyss, llustrte the dscontnuty n our key outcome vrble, nd descrbe the regresson results. Dt used throughout ths secton s descrbed n the ppendx. A. Trends n Elgblty, Recept, nd Averge Beneft The number of noncustodl prents elgble for nd recevng the NCP EITC s presented n tble 1. The frst row of tble 1 shows the number of noncustodl prents who hd chld support order for t lest hlf the yer, whch s one of the NCP EITC elgblty requrements. In generl, ech subsequent row n the tble s subset of the prevous row. In 2006, 341,895 noncustodl prents n the New York chld support progrm hd current support order for t lest hlf the yer. Tht number ncresed slghtly between 2006 nd 2009, rechng 353,681 n The second row of tble 1 shows the number of noncustodl prents who were consdered chld support elgble for the NCP EITC by OTDA. By Jnury 15 of ech yer, OTDA s requred to gve the New York Deprtment of Txton nd Fnnce DTF lst of noncustodl prents who meet the chld support elgblty crter for the pror yer.e., prents who meet elgblty crter numbers 3, 5, nd 6 n the erler lst. These ndvduls hve current support order for t lest one chld under ge, hve hd tht order for t lest hlf the yer, nd hve pd ll ther current support orders n full. The number of noncustodl prents found chld support elgble by OTDA ws 153,000 n 2006; t declned n 2007, then ncresed to 157,748 n Seeng only slght ncrese n the number of noncustodl prents who re chld support elgble for the NCP EITC mght led one to conclude tht the tx credt hsn t encourged people to py ther chld support n full, but we show below tht drwng ths concluson s mstke. Prents re only ncentvzed by the NCP EITC f they meet ll the elgblty crter for the tx credt. Most prents who re chld support elgble for the NCP EITC do not meet ll the other elgblty crter. An estmted 30,490 prents met ll the elgblty crter for the NCP EITC n 2009, 19 percent of those who were chld support elgble tht yer tble 1, row 6. 6
12 The thrd row of tble 1 reports the number of noncustodl prents who were chld support elgble for the NCP EITC nd who fled stte ncome tx returns. About 64 percent of noncustodl prents who re found chld support elgble for the NCP EITC n ny one yer fle stte tx return. Most ndvduls who do not fle stte tx return do not lve n New York nd re probbly not requred to fle New York tx return. Also, some ndvduls probbly hd ncomes below the threshold requred to fle stte tx return. The number of noncustodl prents who fled stte tx returns strted ner 96,000 n 2006, declned n 2007, then ncresed to round 101,000 n 2008 nd Tble 1. Noncustodl Prents Elgble For nd Recevng the NCP EITC, Number of noncustodl prents who: 1 Hve current support order for t lest hlf of yer 341, , , ,681 2 Are chld support elgble for the NCP EITC 153, , , ,748 3 Fled tx return b 95,890 84, , ,628 4 Hve reported ncome below credt celng 45,625 42,656 47,200 54,369 5 Receved NYS EITC estmte 21,177 20,750 22,600 23,879 6 Are elgble for the NCP EITC estmte 24,448 21,906 24,600 30,490 7 Receved NCP EITC b 5,161 5,233 6,439 9,647 8 Clmed NCP EITC b 6,509 6,552 8,343 12,700 9 Percent recevng NYS EITC rther thn NCP EITC 46% 49% 48% 44% 10 Tkeup rte for the NCP EITC 21% 24% 26% 32% 11 Totl cost of the NCP EITC b $2,021,006 $2,151,555 $2,731,101 $4,353, Averge NCP EITC receved $392 $411 $424 $451. Offcl numbers reported by the New York Offce of Temporry nd Dsblty Assstnce OTDA. b. These dt re from the New York Deprtment of Txton nd Fnnce. Source for ll other dt: Authors nlyss of cselevel dt from the New York OTDA. The number of noncustodl prents who were chld support elgble for the NCP EITC, fled tx return, nd hd postve reported ncomes below the credt celng strted t 45,625 n 2006, declned n 2007, then ncresed n 2008 nd 2009, rechng 54,369 n 2009 tble 1, row 4. 7 Ths group of noncustodl prents meets the three key elgblty crter for the NCP EITC: they re chld support elgble, hve ncomes below the credt celng, nd hve fled stte tx returns. In 2006, n estmted 21,117 noncustodl prents who met the chld support nd ncome crter for the NCP EITC nd fled stte tx return chose to receve the New York Stte EITC rther thn the NCP EITC tble 1, row 5. 8 As noted erler, noncustodl prents cnnot receve both tx credts; they re nstructed to tke the lrger one. Ths fgure declned slghtly n 2007, then ncresed n 2008 nd Ths mens tht nerly hlf percent of the noncustodl 7 We generte reported ncome by tkng the mxmum of the followng ncome sources: W2 ernngs, qurterly ernngs, nd djusted gross ncome. 8 We estmte the number of noncustodl prents who receve the NYS EITC rther thn the NCP EITC even though they re ncome nd chld support elgble for the NCP EITC nd fle tx return. OTDA does not hve precse fgures for ths populton. We use cselevel dt from OTDA to determne the number of noncustodl prents who meet chld support elgblty crter for the NCP EITC nd hve reported ncome below the mxmum ncome lmt for the NYS EITC. We then determne wht percent of these prents hve ncomes below the mxmum level for the NCP EITC. We pply ths percent to the number of noncustodl prents who OTDA reports receved the NYS EITC even though they were chld support elgble for the NCP EITC nd hd fled tx return. 7
13 prents who re chld support nd ncome elgble for the NCP EITC nd fle tx return receve the New York Stte EITC rther thn the noncustodl prent EITC. The number of noncustodl prents estmted to be elgble for the NCP EITC ncresed from 24,448 n 2006 to 30,490 n 2009, 25 percent ncrese tble 1, row 6. Thus, the populton of prents who cn be ncentvzed by the NCP EITC ncresed substntlly durng the frst four yers of the credt. The number of noncustodl prents who receved the NCP EITC lso ncresed substntlly over ths perod. Durng the frst two yers of the tx credt, just over 5,000 people receved t, but tht number ncresed to over 9,000 n 2009, n 87 percent ncrese n four yers tble 1, row 7. In 2010, the New York Deprtment of Fnnce reported tht the number of noncustodl prents who receved the NCP EITC declned to 7,744 not shown n tble 1, but ths stll represents 50 percent ncrese snce the ncepton of the credt. Further, the number of noncustodl prents who clmed the NCP EITC ncludng some who re dened the credt ncresed even more: t doubled durng the tx credt s frst four yers, rechng 12,700 n 2009 tble 1, row 8. The recesson tht strted n December 2007 nd ended n June 2009 probbly ffected these numbers, but we thnk the ncreses reported n rows 7 nd 8 reflect growng wreness of the tx credt. The estmted tkeup rte for the NCP EITC ncresed durng ths perod, from 21 percent n 2006 to 32 percent n 2009 row 10 n tble 1. Whle ths tkeup rte s stll low, the tkeup rte for the federl chldless EITC ws estmted t 45 percent fve yers fter t ws mplemented GAO At tht tme, t ws generlly beleved tht the prtcpton rte for the chldless EITC ws so low becuse of the reltvely smll sze of the credt nd the lck of knowledge bout the credt GAO We suspect tht these two fctors lso contrbute to the low prtcpton rte for the NCP EITC. The fnl two rows of tble 1 report the totl cost of the NCP EITC nd the verge sze of the credt receved. The cost of the NCP EITC more thn doubled from 2006 $2 mllon to 2009 $4.3 mllon. 9 However, the NCP EITC cost stll represents less thn 0.5 percent of the totl cost of ll EITCs provded n New York NYS DTF The verge beneft receved ws $451 n 2009; the verge credt cross ll New York EITCs ws $614 tht yer NYS DTF B. Profles of Noncustodl Prents Tbles 2 nd 3 lst ttrbutes of three specfc groups of noncustodl prents n The frst group hs met the followng bsc elgblty crter for the NCP EITC: they re t lest yers old, hve current support order for t lest sx months of the yer, lve n New York, nd dd not fle tx return s mrred flng seprtely. Ths s the group of noncustodl prents we use 9 In 2010, the totl cost of the NCP EITC ws $3.5 mllon, for n verge credt of $456 NYS DTF. 8
14 n the regresson nlyss dscussed below. 10 The second group s noncustodl prents elgble for net beneft from the NCP EITC. Ths s the group we thnk re most lkely to be ncentvzed by the NCP EITC. The fnl group s noncustodl prents who ctully receved the NCP EITC n The numbers n tble 3 dffer slghtly from tble 1 for noncustodl prents who receved the NCP EITC becuse some dt presented n tble 1 were reported by OTDA nd DTF, whle ll the numbers n tbles 2 nd 3 were generted by the uthors usng cselevel dt from OTDA. Group 1: Noncustodl prents n the frst column of tbles 2 nd 3 meet the bsc elgblty crter for the NCP EITC but do not necessrly meet other elgblty crter, such s pyng ll of ther current support orders n full for the yer, owng current support for chld under, hvng ncome wthn the elgble rnge, nd flng stte tx return. For exmple, only 56 percent of noncustodl prents who meet the bsc elgblty crter pd ll of ther current support orders n full n In ddton, 15 percent of these prents dd not hve ny chldren under the ge of for whom they owe current support. Tble 3 shows tht 27 percent of the prents n the frst group hd no reported ncome n 2009 nd nother 30 percent hd reported ncomes bove the tx credt lmt. Ths suggests tht mny of these prents dd not meet the ncome elgblty crter for the NCP EITC. Tble 3 lso shows tht 51 percent of prents who meet the bsc elgblty crter for the NCP EITC were mssng ther tx flng sttus. In other words, the New York Offce of Temporry nd Dsblty Assstnce dd not hve tx flng sttus for these prents. Ths mens tht these prents dd not fle tx return n 2009 or tht the trnsfer of ths nformton from the New York Deprtment of Txton nd Fnnce to OTDA ws unsuccessful. Dt trnsfers re conducted routnely between these two deprtments nd thus t s unlkely tht such lrge number of prents tx flng sttuses were unsuccessfully trnsferred. It s more lkely tht most of these prents dd not fle tx return. Turnng bck to tble 2, we see tht the frst group of noncustodl prents re nerly ll mle. Just under hlf of these prents hve one chld covered by current support order; 54 percent hve two or more chldren. Further, 39 percent of them re whte, nonhspnc, 38 percent re blck, nonhspnc, 23 percent re Hspnc, nd 1 percent re other rce. Ther medn ge s 40 yers old. These prents owed medn mount of $3,796 n current support n Among those who pd t lest porton of ther chld support, the medn mount pd ws $4,147 tht yer. The medn shre of reported ncome owed s current support mong these prents ws 16 percent. Ths ws lso the medn shre of reported ncome gong to chld support. Sxtyfour percent of these prents owed chld support rrers; the medn mount of rrers owed ws $2,574. Tble 3 lso shows tht the frst group of noncustodl prents could hve been elgble for n verge of $111 from the NCP EITC f they pd ther chld support n full nd met the other 10 In the regresson nlyss, we further lmt ths group to noncustodl prents whose youngest chld for whom chld support s owed s between 15 nd 21. 9
15 elgblty requrements. After pyng down ther rrers, these ndvduls could hve receved n verge of $66 from the NCP EITC. If we tke nto ccount the mount of the New York Stte nd New York Cty EITC for whch they re elgble, the verge net beneft from the NCP EITC would hve been $30 f they hd pd ther chld support n full. Tble 2. Demogrphc Chrcterstcs of Specfc Groups of Noncustodl Prents n New York, 2009 Group 1: Meet bsc elgblty crter for the NCP EITC Group 2: Elgble for net beneft from the NCP EITC fter subtrctng rrers Group 3: Receved the NCP EITC Number 232,380 17,065 9,443 Chrcterstcs of Chldren Covered by n Order Number of chldren covered 1 46% 58% 59% 2 29% 27% 27% 3 or more 25% 15% 14% Percent whose youngest chld s or older 15% 0% 0% Medn ge of youngest chld yers Chrcterstcs of Noncustodl Prents b Gender Mle 94% 92% 92% Femle 6% 8% 8% Rce/ethncty Whte, nonhspnc 39% 52% 63% Blck, nonhspnc 38% 25% 21% Hspnc 23% 21% 15% Other Rce 1% 2% 1% Age dstrbuton 29 yers old 12% 23% 26% yers old 35% 38% 39% 40 or older 53% 39% 35% Medn ge of noncustodl prent Source: Authors nlyss of cselevel dt from the New York Offce of Temporry nd Dsblty Assstnce.. Bsc elgblty crter: must be t lest, hve n order for t lest hlf the yer, lve n New York, nd not fle s mrred flng seprtely. b. Some of the noncustodl prents re mssng ther demogrphc nformton. These ndvduls re not ncluded when determnng the percentges reported bove. Group 2: The second group of noncustodl prents column 2 n tbles 2 nd 3 s most lkely to be ncentvzed by the NCP EITC snce these prents re elgble for postve net beneft from the NCP EITC fter subtrctng ther rrers blnce from the credt mount. They meet ll the elgblty crter for the NCP EITC tht we cn mesure except one: they hven t pd ll ther current support orders n full. In 2009, there were only 17,065 ndvduls n ths group, representng 7 percent of the noncustodl prents who meet the bsc elgblty crter for the NCP EITC. Just under 75 percent of these prents lredy pd ther chld support n full. These ndvduls re much more lkely thn the lrger group to hve one current support order 10
16 Tble 3. Economc Chrcterstcs of Specfc Groups of Noncustodl Prents n New York, 2009 Group 1: Meet bsc elgblty crter for the NCP EITC Group 2: Elgble for net beneft from the NCP EITC fter subtrctng rrers Group 3: Receved the NCP EITC Number 232,380 17,065 9,443 Chld Support Chrcterstcs b Medn nnul current support due $3,796 $2,829 $3,016 Percent who pd full mount of current support due 56% 74% 100% Medn nnul mount pd mong pyers $4,147 $3,150 $3,628 Percent wth rrers 64% 37% 42% Medn mount of rrers owed mong debtors $2,574 $119 $409 Percent wth 1 current support order 86% 91% 91% Percent wth 2+ current support orders 14% 9% 8% Reported Income Informton c Percent wth: No reported ncome 27% 0% 3% Annul reported ncome between $0.01 nd $35,452 43% 90% 87% Annul reported ncome bove $35,452 30% 10% 10% Medn nnul reported ncome mong those w/ ncome $25,745 $,249 $20,717 Medn totl due s percent of ncome 16% 14% 14% Medn totl pd s percent of ncome 16% 16% % Flng Sttus Sngle 19% 89% 74% Mrred, fled jontly 13% 6% 4% Hed of household 17% 4% 8% Mssng tx flng sttus 51% 0% 15% Tx Credt Chrcterstcs d Averge NCP EITC $111 $533 $442 Averge NCP EITC fter pyng rrers $66 $466 $407 Averge net beneft from NCP EITC fter pyng rrers $30 $387 $382 Source: Authors nlyss of cselevel dt from the New York Offce of Temporry nd Dsblty Assstnce.. Bsc elgblty crter: must be t lest, hve n order for t lest hlf the yer, lve n New York, nd not fle s mrred flng seprtely. b. Chld support pd ncludes pyments towrd current support nd rrers. c. Reported ncomes equl the mxmum of djusted gross ncome, nnul reported wges, nd the nnul vlue of qurterly reported wges. d. These vlues re estmted unless the noncustodl prent receved n EITC, n whch cse the ctul vlue of the credt receved s used. 11
17 nd hve one chld for whom they owe current support. These chrcterstcs tend to lower the mount of the current support order, mkng t eser to py the order n full. Also, lower shre of these prents 37 percent owes rrers, nd the medn mount tht they owe s consderbly lower $119 thn prents n group 1. To be n ths group, the prents hve to meet the bsc ncome elgblty crter for the NCP EITC: they hve to hve reported ncome nd ther djusted gross ncome AGI hs to be below $35,452. Ten percent of these prents hve reported ncomes bove $35,452, but tht s becuse ther nnul wges not ther AGI re greter thn $35,452. The medn reported ncome for ths group s $,249. In ddton, noncustodl prents hve to fle tx return to be n ths group, nd 89 percent of them fle s sngle. In contrst to the frst group, just over hlf these prents re whte, NonHspnc. Only 25 percent re Afrcn Amercn, nd 21 percent re Hspnc. Nnetytwo percent re mle. The medn ge of these prents s 37 yers old, 3 yers younger thn the frst group. They re younger, n prt, becuse ll these prents hve chld under yers old who s covered by current support order, requrement of the NCP EITC. Tble 3 shows tht nerly ll noncustodl prents who re elgble for net beneft from the NCP EITC fle tx returns s sngle. Ths occurs, n prt, becuse we ssume tht noncustodl prents who fle s hed of households or mrred, flng jontly re elgble for the NYS EITC, whch s hgher thn the NCP EITC over most of the ncome elgblty rnge. Ths ssumpton my cuse us to overestmte the shre of elgbles who fle s sngle. The verge net beneft from the NCP EITC tht ths group could receve f they pd ther chld support n full s nerly $400, whch s consderbly hgher thn the mount mong noncustodl prents n group 1. It s lso slghtly hgher thn the mount ctully receved column 3. Group 3: The fnl group of noncustodl prents n tbles 2 nd 3 s those who ctully receved the NCP EITC n Smlr to group 2, these noncustodl prents re more lkely thn the lrger group group 1 to hve one current support order nd one chld for whom they owe current support. As noted bove, these chrcterstcs tend to lower the current support oblgton nd mke t eser to py the full mount due. Noncustodl prents who receved the NCP EITC hd medn reported ncome of $20,717 n 2009, slghtly hgher thn group All these prents pd ther current support order n full, nd the medn mount of ther reported ncome tht they spent on chld support ws percent. Only 42 percent of these prents owed rrers, nd the medn mount of rrers owed ws $409, consderbly less thn the mount owed mong the lrger group of noncustodl prents. 11 Three percent of the noncustodl prents who receved the NCP EITC n 2009 hd no reported ncome tht yer n the dt we receved from OTDA. As noted elsewhere, noncustodl prents must work nd hve postve AGI to receve the NCP EITC. Thus, the 3 percent reflects the lmttons of the ncome dt vlble to us. 12
18 We re mssng the tx flng sttus for 15 percent of the noncustodl prents who receved the NCP EITC n Among those who hve tx flng sttus, nerly ll 87 percent fle s sngle. Ths result s expected snce most noncustodl prents who fle s hed of household or mrred, flng jontly re probbly elgble for the NYS EITC, whch s hgher over most of the ncome elgblty rnge. In 2009, 63 percent of the recpents of the NCP EITC were whte, NonHspnc. Only 21 percent were Afrcn Amercn, nd 15 percent were Hspnc. The medn ge of ths group s 36 yers old nd the medn ge of ther youngest chld for whom they owe chld support ws 9. The verge NCP EITC receved ws $442 n After pyng down rrers, the verge credt ws $407. After pyng down rrers nd tkng nto ccount the mount tht could hve been receved from the NYS EITC, the verge credt ws worth $382. C. Regresson Results Before presentng the regresson results, we llustrte the dscontnuty n the key outcome vrble percent pyng chld support n full. 12 Fgure 2 shows the reltonshp between the proporton of noncustodl prents who py ther chld support n full nd the ge of the noncustodl prent s youngest chld, usng dt from 2007 to The lnes on the grph re generted by locl lner regresson. The fgure shows n ncrese n the proporton pyng n Fgure 2. Proporton of Noncustodl Prents Who Pd Ther Chld Support n Full by Age of Youngest Chld, All Orders, The methodology employed to estmte the regresson results s presented n the ppendx. 13
19 full through the noncustodl chld s teen yers, probbly becuse the prents ern more s they get older. At ge, the locl lner regresson shows dscontnuous drop n the proporton pyng chld support n full. Ths drop s evdence of the NCP EITC s effect. Becuse the credt s lmted to noncustodl prents wth chldren under, the verge potentl NCP EITC drops dscontnuously t ge. After ge, the proporton pyng n full tpers off slghtly, probbly due to drop n perceved need. However, s we show lter, there s no evdence of dscontnuous drop t ge n the bsence of the NCP EITC. Tble 4 presents estmtes of the dscontnuty n the proporton of noncustodl prents pyng ther full chld support, dependng upon the sze of the bndwdth nd the yer of the dt. 14 Although pyments could drop dscontnuously t the ge boundry, even bsent the new ncentve, for other resons, we fnd no evdence of preprogrm effect t the dscontnuty. Column 1 shows no sgnfcnt dscontnuty n the proporton of noncustodl prents pyng ther chld support n full n 2005, the yer before the enctment of the NCP EITC, regrdless of the bndwdth used. The estmted jumps n pyment rtes for sngle yers fter the NCP EITC s encted re shown n columns 2 to 5. Most sngleyer estmtes do not dffer sgnfcntly from zero, except for Tht yer shows sgnfcnt dscontnuty n the proporton pyng ther full chld support cross rnge of bndwdths. Specfclly, the proporton pyng n full ncreses 2.56 percentge ponts t the ge boundry usng bndwdth of two yers. Tble 4. Estmted Dscontnuty n the Proporton Pyng n Full t Age by Yer ll order szes ncluded Bndwdth yers yers yer ** ** Observtons 64,304 62,308 68,759 69,987 74,158 Note: t sttstcs n prentheses. + p.10, * p 0.05, ** p 0.01, *** p In 2006, the frst yer the credt ws vlble, there ws some confuson regrdng the defnton of mnor chld. The sttute uthorzng the NCP EITC sys tht the noncustodl prent must hve mnor chld wth whom he or she does not resde to qulfy for the NCP EITC. In New York, for tx purposes, chld s mnor untl ge, but the ge of mjorty for chld support purposes s 21. Intlly, OTDA dentfed noncustodl prents s chld support elgble for the NCP EITC f they hd chldren under 21 nd met the other chld support requrements. Prtwy through 2006, the two deprtments relzed they were usng dfferent defntons of mnor, so OTDA revsed ts defnton nd resubmtted the lst of chld support elgble noncustodl 13 We use ths perod becuse t corresponds to the yers of our nlyss, s descrbed below. 14 For more bndwdths, see ppendx tble 2. 14
20 prents. Becuse of ths confuson, bout 8 percent of the noncustodl prents who receved the NCP EITC n 2006 dd not hve chldren under for whom current support ws owed. Becuse of the confuson over the defnton of mnor chld, we re not surprsed tht the results for 2006 re not sgnfcnt. Perhps 2007 ws the frst yer n whch noncustodl prents fully responded to the ncentve. The ncentve effect my be weker n 2008 nd 2009 becuse of the recesson, whch mde t hrder for noncustodl prents to py ther chld support n full. Becuse of the confuson n 2006, we combne dt from 2007 to 2009 to estmte the effect of the NCP EITC below. Tble 5 presents our results for the proporton pyng n full t the ge boundry for vrous bndwdths usng dt from 2007 to The frst column of tble 5 shows sgnfcnt dscontnuty n the proporton pyng n full f bndwdth of two or three yers s used. Ths suggests tht the NCP EITC hd sgnfcnt effect on the proporton pyng ther chld support n full. 16 Specfclly, the proporton pyng n full ncreses by 1 percentge pont t the ge boundry n 2007 through In 2009, 56 percent of noncustodl prents who met the bsc elgblty crter for the NCP EITC pd ther chld support n full. The results presented n tble 5 suggest tht becuse of the NCP EITC ths fgure s 1 percentge pont hgher thn t would be otherwse, ncresng the number of prents pyng n full by bout 2,300 people. However, f we constructed dfferencendfference estmte by subtrctng the preprogrm estmte from the 2007 to 2009 estmtes, we would get smller effect nd one tht s no longer sttstclly sgnfcnt. The second nd thrd columns of tble 5 present the estmted jumps n the dscontnutes of the elgblty for net beneft from the NCP EITC nd the mount of the net beneft t the ge boundry. Usng bndwdth of two yers, the estmted jump n the elgblty rte for the NCP EITC s 8.07 percentge ponts, nd the estmted jump n the net beneft mount s $28.09 t the ge boundry. The fourth nd ffth columns of tble 5 present the locl Wld estmtors, whch mesure the responsveness of pyng n full to percentge chnge n the elgblty rte for the NCP EITC nd dollr chnge n the mount of the net beneft. Usng bndwdth of two yers, we estmte tht 1 percentge pont ncrese n the elgblty rte for the NCP EITC would generte.134 percentge pont ncrese n the shre of noncustodl prents pyng ther chld support n full. We lso estmte tht $100 ncrese n the NCP EITC would generte.04 percentge pont ncrese n the shre pyng n full. In 2009, 56 percent of noncustodl prents 15 For more bndwdths, see the ppendx tbles. 16 Strctly spekng, the estmtes re only generlzble to those NCPs whose youngest nonresdent chld s exctly yers old. But other methods wth hgh nternl vldty would lso hve strong lmttons on externl vldty. In ddton, t s possble tht the ncentve effect we observe s the result of recevng the NCP EITC. If prent owes chld support rrers, then the credt s used to reduce those rrers nd ppers n our dt s chld support pyment. To scertn whether ths reverse cuslty s ffectng our results, we conducted the sme nlyss presented here on the frst nstnce of recevng the NCP EITC nd found smlr results. 15
21 who met the bsc elgblty crter for the NCP EITC pd ther chld support n full. If the shre of noncustodl prents who re elgble for net beneft from the NCP EITC were to ncrese 1 percentge pont from 8.07 percent to 9.07 percent, then we estmte tht the shre of noncustodl prents who met the bsc elgblty crter for the NCP EITC would ncrese from 56 percent to percent, ddng bout 300 noncustodl prents pyng ther chld support n full. If the NCP EITC ncresed by $100, we estmte tht the shre of noncustodl prents who met the bsc elgblty crter for the NCP EITC would ncrese from 56 percent to percent, ddng bout 100 noncustodl prents pyng n full. Tble 5. Estmted Dscontnuty n the Proporton Pyng n Full, the Proporton Elgble for Net Beneft from the NCP EITC, the Amount of the Net Beneft, nd Ther Assocted Locl Wld Estmtors combnng dt from 2007 to 2009 nd ncludng ll order szes Bndwdth 1 Proporton pyng n full 2 Proporton elgble for net beneft from the NCP EITC 3 Amount of net beneft from the NCP EITC 4 Locl Wld estmtor 1/2 5 Locl Wld estmtor 1/3 3 yers.0096 * yers yer *** *** *** *** *** *** * * Note: t sttstcs n prentheses. + p.10, * p 0.05, ** p 0.01, *** p N = 212,904 As noted bove, we lso exmne the NCP EITC s effect on two other outcomes: the mount of chld support pd, nd whether noncustodl prents worked. We fnd no evdence of n effect on ether vrble. Tble 6 reports the estmted dscontnutes for these two outcomes. The lck of n effect on the mount of chld support pd s somewht surprsng, gven tht we found postve effect on the proporton pyng n full. Perhps the ncrese n full pyment s the result of those who re lredy pyng nerly the full mount due nd re ncentvzed to py slghtly more becuse of the new credt. For exmple, noncustodl prents who hve mde 11 months of pyments my be encourged to mke the 12th pyment. The bsence of ny dscernble effect on lbor mrket ttchment s not prtculrly surprsng, f for no other reson thn tht we do not hve suffcent power to detect very smll effects, nd ny effect on lbor force ttchment s lkely to be very smll. Becuse noncustodl prents wth low orders hve stronger ncentve to respond to the NCP EITC thn noncustodl prents wth hgh orders, we reestmte the regresson dscontnutes dscussed bove for ths populton. We defne low orders s those below $3,000 n 2009 dollrs, roughly the medn order for noncustodl prents who receve the NCP EITC. 16
22 Tble 6. Estmted Dscontnutes for the Amount of Chld Support Pd nd Whether Noncustodl Prents Erned More thn $3,000 Yer combnng dt from 2007 to 2009 nd ll order szes ncluded Bndwdth Amount of chld support pd Proporton ernng more thn $3,000/ yer 3 yers yers yer Note: t sttstcs n prentheses. + p.10, * p 0.05, ** p 0.01, *** p Tble 7 shows sgnfcnt mpcts of the NCP EITC on ll three outcomes for noncustodl prents wth low orders when bndwdth of two yers s used. 17 Usng ths bndwdth, we fnd tht the proporton pyng n full ncreses 2.1 percentge ponts t the ge boundry, roughly double the effect sze found mong ll noncustodl prents who meet the bsc elgblty crter for the NCP EITC. Usng the sme bndwdth, we fnd tht the mount of chld support pd ncresed $56.44 t the ge boundry, suggestng tht smll mpct on the mount pd mong noncustodl prents wth low orders. Fnlly, tble 7 shows tht the estmted dscontnuty n the shre ernng more thn $3,000/yer mong noncustodl prents wth low orders s 1.6 percentge ponts t the ge boundry, usng bndwdth of two yers. Ths suggests tht the NCP EITC ncresed the shre ernng t lest $3,000 yer mong noncustodl prents wth low orders by 1.6 percentge ponts. However, s noted erler, f we construct dfferencendfference estmte by subtrctng the preprogrm estmte from the 2007 to 2009 estmtes, we would get smller effects, nd none of them would be sttstclly sgnfcnt. Tble 7. Estmted Dscontnutes for Three Outcome Vrbles, Ordered Amount Less thn $3,000 Yer dt Proporton Bndwdth pd n full 3 yers.0 * yers.021 * yer.032 * 2.38 Amount pd * 2.16 Proporton ernng more thn $3,000/yr * 2.37 Note: t sttstcs n prentheses. + p.10, * p 0.05, ** p 0.01, *** p N = 79, Sngleyer results re presented n the ppendx tbles. 17
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