Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, July 2015

Transcription

1 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, y The service sector, esp. tourism and communication, continued to play a role in supporting the economy. The agricultural sector contracted from unfavorable climate while the manufacturing sector improved slightly due to temporary factors. () Nominal Farm Income Q1 Q2 Jun (%MoM) Nominal farm income Agricultural production Agricultural price Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data by BOT Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT 8 Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) Index sa ( = ) 12 Export < 3% 3% < Export < % Export > % %MoM sa 1.1% Source: OIE calculated by BOT Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) (%YOY) Weight Food & Beverages Q1 Q2 Jun P P Petroleum - - Textiles Apparels HDD IC & Semiconductors - - Vehicles Cement & Construction Chemicals - - Rubbers & Plastics Electrical Appliances MPI P = Preliminary data %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data by BOT Source: Office of Industrial Economics 11.2% -.2% (%MoM) Index sa ( = ) Real Farm Income Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mma 7 Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by BOT Index sa ( = ) Other Manufacturing Indicators Export value of automobile parts Electricity used in industry Import value of raw materials excl. fuel and chemicals Index of hours worked in manufacturing %MoM sa 3.7% 1.3% 1.5% Source: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT (%) Food & Beverages Petroleum Textiles Apparels HDD IC & Semiconductors Vehicles Cement & Construction Chemicals Rubbers & Plastics Electrical Appliances Capacity Utilization (sa) Weight 2 CAPU P = Preliminary data Seasonally adjusted by BOT Source: Office of Industrial Economics -2.9% Q1 Q2 May Jun P

2 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, y ( = ) 2 Number of Foreign Tourists Sales in Trade Sectors 175 Sales in Transportation Sectors Sales in Telecommunication Sectors (mma) 15 Juristic Act and Right Registration Fee for Real Estate Note: Sales from VAT collection, latest data estimated by BOT Source: Department of Tourism, The Revenue Department Department of Land Service Indicators (%QoQ sa, %MoM sa) Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Jun Trade Sector* E Other Service Indicators Nielsen's Fast Moving Consumer Goods Domestic Car Sales Transportation Sector* E Other Service Indicators Service Sector Indicators Service Indicators (sa) (% Change from previous period) Weight in GDP (CVM ) Service Sector (%) ( = ) 2 Low Cost Airlines' Passengers Source: Thai Airways, Airports of Thailand, Nielsen Company, The Transport Co. Ltd. calculated by BOT AOT Passengers Handled Thai Airways Passengers Carried Real Export Transportation by Ship Communication Sector* E Hotel and Restaurant Sector (Number of Foreign Tourists) Real Estate and Business Services Sector 13 Real Estate Sector (Juristic Act and Right Registration Fee) Sales in Business Services* E Remark: *Sales from VAT collection, latest data estimated by BOT E = Estimated data %MoM sa is calculated from 3mma data except communication sector (mma data) Source: The Revenue Department, Ministry of Finance, Department of Land, Department of Tourism, Thai Airways, AOT, The Federation of Thai Industries calculated by BOT Other Service Sector Indicators International Airports' Passengers Revenue of The Transport Co. Ltd. Nielsen's Fast Moving Consumer Goods 2 New Mortgage Loans from Commercial Banks in Bangkok and Vicinity Area Thousand unit sa, 3mma ( = ) 1 Low-rise Condominium Total 8 15,82 2,37 2, Newly Launched Properties in Bangkok and Vicinity Area Thousand unit sa, 3mma ( = ) Source Agency for Real Estate Affairs AREA and seasonally adjusted by BOT Low-rise Condominium Total 15 8,27,198 2,23

3 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, y (212 = ) Domestic demand moderated from weakening private consumption and flat private investment as household income decreased and confidence continued to deteriorate. While, government spending continued to be disbursed well, it could not outweigh the weak private demand. Nielsen s FMCG & Fuel index 95 Source: The Nielsen company, Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary Data (212 = ) 13 Nielsen s FMCG Fuel index P (RHS) Durables and Semi-durables index (212 = ) (212 = ) (212 = ) Semi-durables index (RHS) 11 Service index* & Non-resident spending index 9 (212 = ) 18 Non-resident spending index (RHS Service index 12 Note: *Combination of 1) hotel and restaurant VAT and 2) transportation sales Million USD sa, 3mma, Equipment indicators Imports of Capital Million Baht sa, 3mma, Domestic Machinery Sales (RHS) 5, Jun 15 8, 79,982., 15, 3, ,, Source: Custom Department, Revenue Department calculated by BOT 8 Durables index Private Consumption Indicators Q1 Q2 Jun P (%MoM) Non-durables index.1 Semi-durables index Durables index Services index 5.7 n.a. n.a. Tourist expenditure PCI Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data Unit sa, 3mma 8,,, 2, Equipment indicators Car sales (Commercial car 7% Passenger car 3%) Source: Federation of Thai Industries ,125 Construction indicators 1, m 2, 9mma (21 = ) 1 Construction Permitted Area Construction Material Index (RHS) , Source: NSO and Bank of Thailand Private Investment Indicators % YoY Q1 Q2 Jun P P (%MoM) 1/ Construction Area Permitted (9mma) E -1.3 E Construction Materials Index Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery Sales n.a. n.a. Car Sales 2/ PII Note: 1/ %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted, 3 month moving average data 2/ Commercial car 7%, Passenger car 3%

4 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, y Diffusion Index 5 3 Consumer Confidence Index MOC UTCC (RHS) Diffusion Index Source: Ministry of Commerce (MOC), University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) Billion Baht Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Billion Baht 2 Central government expenditure (excl. subsidies/grants and other) Average 21- Current Expenditure Capital Expenditure Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Source: Comptroller General s Department and Bank of Thailand Index (Unchanged = 5) 5 3 Source : Bank of Thailand Revenue 1/ Billion Baht FY P FY P Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun () - Expense 2/ () - Budgetary B/L Non-Budgetary B/L Cash B/L (CG) Primary B/L (CG) Net Financing BSI Business Sentiment Index Expected BSI (next 3 months) Fiscal Position Treasury B/L Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Cash basis 2/ Exclude principal loan repayment Source Fiscal Policy Office Comptroller General s Department Bank of Thailand Oct 15 = =.

5 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, y Exports contracted for the 7 th consecutive month due to weak demand from trading partners, esp. China and Asia. Nevertheless, expanding tourism income and decreasing imports resulted in current account surplus. Jun = 17.7 Bn USD Ex.gold = 17.5 Bn USD Export Growth Share P P Q1 Q2 Jun %MoM) Agriculture Fishery Manufacturing Electronics Computer parts IC - - Automotive - - Agro-manufacturing Products Machinery & Equipment - - Electrical Appliances Metal & Steel Apparels and Textile Petroleum products Petro-chemical Products Chemicals Total Excl. Gold %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data = 18.1 Bn USD Ex.gold = 18. Bn USD Jun = 15.7 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 15. Bn USD Import Growth Share P P = 15. Bn USD Ex.Gold = 1.5 Bn USD Q1 Q2 Jun Consumer Raw material & Intermediate o/w Fuel %MoM) o/w Raw mat & Interm excl. Fuel Capital Others o/w Automotive Total excl. gold %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data Source: Compiled from Customs Department s data Thousand persons 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Number of Foreign Tourists Number of Foreign tourists Number of Foreign tourists (sa) (RHS) Source: Department of Tourism 15 Number 2,2,71 Growth 39. % YOY % Hotel Occupacy rate Occupacy rate Occupacy rate (sa) Million USD, Current Account, 2, -2, -, Service & Income Balance Trade Balance Current Account -, Million USD,, 2, -2, -, -, Financial Account P Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun _E Foreign Direct Investment Foreign Portfolio Investment Foreign Loans Other Foreign Investment Thai Direct Investment Thai Portfolio Investment Net Financial Flows Thai Loans Other Thai Investment P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

6 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, y Net Financial Flows Million USD P P Q1 Q2 Jun E 1. Assets TDI Thai portfolio investment Equity sec. investment Debt sec. investment Loans Other Investments 2. Liabilities - - FDI Foreign Portfolio investment Equity sec. investment Debt sec. investment Loans Other Investments Total Financial flows (1+2) P = Preliminiary data E = Estimated data Billion USD E E Q1 Q2 Jun Trade balance Exports (f.o.b.) Imports (f.o.b.) Services & Income Current Account Capital and Financial Account Government Central Bank ODCs Others - - Net Error & Omissions Overall Balance - - International Reserves Net Forward Position Balance of Payments E = Estimated data Diffusion index 55 G3 Manufacturing PMI Japan US Euro area Asia s Manufacturing PMI Diffusion index HK TW SG KR INDO Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, Markit Economics, Reuters 5 Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, Markit Economics, Reuters ( = ) Asia s Exports 8 Note: Thai export excluded gold. Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by BOT PH CN KR TH TW SG MY INDO

7 3-Dec Feb-15 3-Mar-15 -May-15 -Jun Aug-15 2-Jun-15 8-Jun Jun Jun-15 2-Jun-15 3-Jun Aug Aug Aug-15 2-Aug-15 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, y Total financing increased slightly mainly from large corporations with access to lower borrowing costs in the bond market while commercial banks were prudent about lending to SMEs. Total Corporate Financing Billion baht 2 15 Business credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun Note: Business credits and debt : change in outstanding (par) Equity : New issuance at par value, ThaiBMA, SET -month deposit rate Average of largest banks Average of other banks MLR New Private Credit Extended by Other Depository Corporations Billion baht 2-2 MoM, SA % MoM change (RHS) - Household Business - FebMar AprMayJun FebMar AprMayJun Average of largest banks Average of other banks Commercial Bank Interest Rate* Q1/1 Q2/1 Q3/1 Q/1 Q1/15 Q2/15 Aug End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, and Siam Commercial Bank MRR Average of largest banks Average of other banks 8.7 % New Private Credit Classified by Borrowers Size Billion baht (MoM, SA) 5-5 SME Large - Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun 15 1 Other Depository Corporations Deposits and Private Credits Note: P = Preliminary Data Private Credits Deposits + B/E Change in Yield Curve y P.3% 5.3% % p.a. Bps Aug Change since 31.5 (RHS). -2 1M 3M M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 1Y 15Y and ThaiBMA Index (212 = ) Exchange Rate 2 Aug 15 USDTHB = 35.7 NEER25 = 15.8 Appreciation against USD USDTHB (reverse) 31 NEER25 32 USDTHB (RHS) Million Baht 5, -5, -1, USDTHB and Thai Equity Market Appreciation against USD Foreign Investor's net buy-sell SET Index (RHS) USDTHB (RHS) Index (2 June 15 = Source: Reuters, Bank of Thailand, Stock Exchange of Thailand, Bloomberg

8 Q1 Q Q1 Q2-15 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, y Negative inflation persisted due to low global oil price, although fresh food prices edged up. Unemployment rate steadied. External stability remained sound Contribution to Headline Inflation Raw Food (15.51%) Energy (11.%) Core Inflation (73.9%) ( ) Share in Headline Inflation 15 Headline Inflation -1.5% Source: Ministry of Finanace calculated by BOT Contribution to Core Inflation Food and Bev. excl. Alcohol (2.%) Other Goods and Services (5.3%) Rent (21.1%) Source: Ministry of Finanace calculated by BOT 15 Core Inflation.9% % Unemployment Rate 15 Unemployment rate 1. % Unemployment rate (sa).9 %. Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Data from onward are based on New Population Projections for Thailand 21-2 Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO Employment Index ( =) Total Agriculture Manufacturing Service Note: Data from onward are based on New Population Projections for Thailand 21-2 Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO calculated by BOT Percent sa, 3mma External Debt Outstanding Billion USD P P Change /Jun15 Q1 Q2 Jun E E Total 1. General government - 2. Central Bank* - 3. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) -. Other Sectors - - Other Financial Corporations - - Non Financial Corporations - O/W Foreign Trade Credit 5. Total - Short-term (%) Long-term (%) Labor Market Tightness Index Job Openings/Unemployed person 5 Year Average (21 - ) Source: NSO, Department of Employment, Bank of Thailand Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data Billion USD External Debt Public Others ODC Source : Bank of Thailand Solvency Indicators External Stability Indicators External Stability Indicators Criteria Reserves/Short-term debt P 2.9 Q Q1 Q2 Jun E E Current Account / GDP (%) - n.a. n.a. Debt / GDP (%) - n.a. n.a. Debt / XGS 1/ (%) - Debt Service Ratio (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. Liquidity Indicators Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time Gross Reserves / Imports 2/ > 3- times ST Debt / Total Debt (%) Note: XGS Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import (1-year average) Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E =Estimated data

9 Q Q1 Q2 Q Q1 Q2 Q Q1 Q2 Q Q1 Q2 Q Q1 Q2 Q Q1 Q2 Q Q1 Q2 Q Q1 Q2 Q Q1 Q2 Q Q1 Q2 Q Q1 Q2 Q Q1 Q2 Thailand Macroeconomic Assessment Bank of Thailand, y Overall business stability was in a good condition. However, ICR showed a decreasing trend, esp. for small firms. % Q1 Net Profit Margin All Businesses Manufacturing* Petrochemical Construction Real Estate Wholesale and Retail Q2 Q3 Q Note: * excl. Petrochemical, Median Source: SET calculated by BOT Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 Annualized Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR) by by asset size size ICR_Percentile ICR_Median ICR_Median Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile Quintile 5 All businesses (Smallest Quintile businesses) 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile (Largest Quintile businesses) 5 All businesses (Smallest businesses) (Largest businesses) Note: Annualized ICR calculated by trailing quarters Source: SET calculated by BOT Note: Annualized ICR calculated by trailing quarters Source: SET calculated by BOT Commercial banks balance sheet remained healthy. However, loan quality deteriorated following the weak economy, prompting commercial banks to increase allowance for bad debt and doubtful account. Commercial Bank Performance Billion Baht Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Q1 Q2 P Interest Income Interest Expense Net Interest Income ( ) = ( ) ( Non-interest Income Operating Expense Operating Margin ( ) = ( ) + ( ) ( Bad Debt & Doubtful Account* Income Tax Net Profit Margin ( ) = ( ) ( ) ( Note: P = Preliminary Data *Including Impairment Loss Billion Baht Net Profit Margin, Operating Margin, and Commercial Banks Expenses Income Tax Bad Debt, Doubtful Accounts, and Impairment Loss Net Profit Margin Operating Margin Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 212