OCCUPATIONAL OUTLOOK NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

Transcription

1 OCCUPATIONAL OUTLOOK NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR Spring 2014

2 P a g e 1 Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES... 1 ACRONYMS... 2 ABOUT THE OCCUPATIONAL OUTLOOK... 3 NOTES ON METHODOLOGY... 4 PART 1: SUMMARY OF MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS... 8 PROVINCIAL OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK... 9 OCCUPATIONAL OUTLOOK MAJOR GROUPS Management Occupations Business, Finance and Administration Occupations Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations Health Occupations Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Services and Religion Occupations in Arts, Culture, and Sport and Recreation Sales and Service Occupations Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations Occupations Unique to Primary Industry Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities PART 2: EMPLOYMENT POTENTIAL CALLS BY DETAILED OCCUPATIONAL GROUP List of Tables Table 1:, Distribution and Growth by Occupational Major Group..10 Table 2: New Jobs, Attrition and Total Job Openings

3 P a g e 2 Acronyms COPS.Canadian Occupational Projection System NOC...National Occupational Classification GDP Gross Domestic Product LFS...Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada NAICS North American Industrial Classification System NHS National Household Survey, Statistics Canada NL...Newfoundland and Labrador ROOC.Regional Occupational Outlooks in Canada US...United States

4 P a g e 3 About the Occupational Outlook Each year, Service Canada issues three-year employment forecasts both by industry and by occupation for Newfoundland and Labrador as a whole. The results of the analysis are published in the form of a report intended to provide a comprehensive overview of recent labour market developments and outlooks in Newfoundland and Labrador. We hope this series of documents will interest people who are seeking labour market guidance and those who help them, including parents, educational staff, and employment assistance services workers. It should also interest businesses and employer associations that want to identify human resources management issues in their industries. This document is composed of two sections. The first part provides a summary of large occupational skill type categories, including an overview of economic developments and key labour market indicators. The second part presents the employment prospects by occupation catalogued according to the National Occupational Classification (NOC 2006). Finally, we would like to acknowledge the Labour Market Information team located at National Headquarters who provided the forecasting tool and ongoing support throughout this project, and the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) team who provided us with access to many of the base analyses for the forecasting tool used to carry out this study.

5 P a g e 4 Notes on Methodology Each year, Service Canada develops medium-term employment forecasts both by industry and by occupation for Newfoundland and Labrador. The results of these analyses are published to provide a comprehensive overview of recent labour market developments and outlooks in Newfoundland and Labrador. This document presents occupational outlooks based on the 10 main skill areas defined in Canada s National Occupational Classification (NOC), 2006 version. Estimates The data source used for historical estimates and employment forecasts by industry and occupation is Statistics Canada s Labour Force Survey (LFS). The LFS was chosen because it constitutes a statistically reliable and continuous source of information on employment trends in Newfoundland and Labrador. Historical employment data for the skill type occupational categories were also derived from LFS estimates. Service Canada, Atlantic Region, is solely responsible for the employment prospects. These employment prospects have been established for a three-year period, from 2013 to They were developed by Service Canada economists in Newfoundland and Labrador. Credit also goes to the partnership with the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS), without which we would not have had access to many of the analysis and forecasting tools that were used to carry out this study. The annual average employment growth rates in the tables were calculated using compound growth rates. The growth rates specifically refer to changes from 2013 to 2015, with 2013 used as the base year. Prospects: Detailed List by Occupation Only occupations with an employment greater than fifty persons in the region are on this list. The ratings are based on data on unemployment, expected growth in employment, anticipated replacement needs, the impact of technological, organizational and legislative changes, employee turnover, openings, the level and types of skills required, the status of young graduates, and significant developments or events that could affect employment over the next few years and the labour market as a whole. There are three indicators used for the employment prospects:

6 P a g e 5 Good This rating is given to occupations that offer the best opportunities. These occupations are associated with an above-average demand for workers in the labour market and a smaller pool of qualified applicants in the region. This is a more favourable situation for job seekers and is sometimes associated with a lack of qualified and/or experienced workers. The situation can also be the result of specific working conditions, seasonal or temporary employment, lack of interest among workers, etc. Fair This rating is given to occupations that offer opportunities comparable to the average for all occupations. These occupations are associated with a demand for workers in the labour market that is higher than or comparable to the average and a pool of skilled labour that more or less matches the estimated need. Taking into account the context of the regional labour market, this situation can be considered stable. However, there will sometimes be slightly more applicants than available positions. Limited This rating is given to occupations that offer the poorest job opportunities. These occupations are associated with a situation where job openings and employment growth are below the regional average. The situation is more difficult for job seekers in these occupations and reflects the fact that the number of qualified available workers exceeds the number of positions that will need to be filled in the next three years. Note: Job seekers should take other information into account in order to make informed choices that affect their career path. They need a good knowledge of their interests, skills and personal suitability before they can make these personal decisions. Job seekers are encouraged to consult other sources of information before choosing a particular career. Occupational Groups The occupational groups used in this report are the 10 major skill type categories of the National Occupational Classification (NOC), 2006 version, which are based on the type of work performed. These categories also reflect the field of training or experience that is normally required for entry into occupations including the educational area of study required.

7 P a g e 6 Below is a brief overview of the composition of each of these groups, citing the definitions provided by the NOC , published by and Social Development Canada (then Human Resources and Social Development Canada). More detailed information on NOC categories is available on the NOC website Management Occupations This skill type category contains legislators, senior management occupations, and middle management occupations. 1. Business, Finance and Administration This category contains occupations that are concerned with providing financial and business services, administrative and regulatory services, and clerical supervision and support services. Some occupations in this category are unique to the financial and business service sectors; however, most are found in all industries. 2. Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations This category contains professional and technical occupations in the sciences, including physical and life sciences, engineering, architecture, and information technology. 3. Health Occupations This category includes occupations concerned with providing health care services directly to patients and occupations that provide support to professional and technical staff. 4. Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Service and Religion This skill type category includes a range of occupations that are concerned with law, teaching, counselling, conducting social science research, developing government policy, and administering government and other programs. 5. Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport 1 Human Resources and Social Development Canada. National Occupational Classification 2006: Occupational Descriptions. LM E Ottawa: Public Works and Government Services Canada, and Social Development Canada. National Occupational Classification website.

8 P a g e 7 This skill type category includes professional and technical occupations related to art and culture, including the performing arts, film and video, broadcasting, journalism, writing, creative design, libraries and museums. It also includes occupations in recreation and sport. 6. Sales and Service Occupations This skill type category contains sales occupations, personal and protective service occupations, and occupations related to the hospitality and tourism industries. 7. Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations This skill type category includes construction and mechanical trades, trades supervisors and contractors, and operators of transportation and heavy equipment. These occupations are found in a wide range of industrial sectors, with many occurring in the construction and transportation industries. This category includes most of the apprenticeable trades, including all of those related to the construction industry. Other occupations in this category usually require completion of college or other programs combined with on-the-job training. Progression to supervisory or self-employed contractor status is possible with experience. There is limited mobility or transferability of skills among occupations in this category due to specific apprenticeship, training and licensing requirements for most occupations. 8. Occupations Unique to Primary Industry This category contains supervisory and equipment operation occupations in the natural resource-based sectors of mining, oil and gas production, forestry and logging, agriculture, horticulture and fishing. Most occupations in this category are industry specific and do not occur outside of the primary industries. 9. Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities This category contains supervisory and production occupations in manufacturing, processing and utilities.

9 Part 1: Summary of Major Occupational Groups P a g e 8

10 P a g e 9 Provincial Overview and Outlook In Newfoundland and Labrador, record high employment was reached in However, employment is expected to grow at an annual rate of 0.6% in This means that growth is expected to be relatively flat after a number of years of strong growth. However, this modest growth rate will keep the number of jobs in the province around the current record levels throughout the forecast period. The province s increase in employment over the past few years has been mainly due to growth related to mining and oil and gas. A number of major projects have been underway in recent years. Major project activity will continue through the forecast period. Beyond an employment increase in mining and oil and gas, there has been a notable increase in construction and in professional, scientific and technical services such as engineering and design work as a result. Income growth has been quite strong, and consumer and business confidence is high. New car sales continue to reach new record levels. Housing starts have been strong, and the population of the province has virtually halted its declining trend. The forecast period reflects the continuation of these overall conditions. While activity on some major projects is decreasing, others projects are only starting. This should sustain employment levels at these new highs over the forecast period. However, despite the fact that the unemployment rate has been decreasing and reaching a series of new provincial lows, it stubbornly remains the highest rate in the country. A key consideration in developing an occupational outlook is the effect of an aging workforce and their potential retirements on the number of job openings created. Newfoundland and Labrador has the highest median age in the country. The province has a higher than average share of its workforce aged 55 and older, while the share of workers starting their careers (age years) is the lowest in Canada. Over the forecast period, the province is expected to produce approximately 14,400 job openings. Over 80% of these job openings will come about as a result of workers retiring or otherwise withdrawing from the workforce, or what is known as attrition. The other approximately 20% will come about due to increased needs for workers in growing industries, which is called expansion demand. This is forecast to be approximately 2,800 jobs between 2013 and Reflecting the period of relatively low growth, 69% of occupations have a fair outlook, while 19% are good, and 12% have limited opportunities. In general, employment prospects are better for those in occupations that typically require some form of post-secondary education. For example, 34% of occupations that require a university degree have a good outlook, while only 1% have a limited outlook. In contrast, only 4% of elemental skill occupations that typically do not require high school completion have a good outlook, while the outlook is limited for 41% of these occupations.

11 P a g e 10 Occupational Outlook Major Groups Table 1:, Distribution and Growth by Occupational Major Group in NL 2012 Share of Annual Average Growth Rate Annual Average Growth Rate (Forecast) Total, All Occupations 230, % 2.5% 0.6% Management 18, % 1.9% 0.2% Business, Finance and Administration 34, % 3.8% 0.8% Natural and Applied Sciences and Related 17, % 14.0% 0.8% Occupations Health Occupations 21, % 4.2% 2.4% Social Science, Education, Government 21, % 5.6% 1.7% Services and Religion Arts, Culture, Recreation and Sport 4, % -2.4% 0.7% Sales and Service Occupations 57, % -1.7% 0.9% Trades, Transport and Equipment 39, % 5.0% -1.4% Occupations Unique to Primary Industry 9, % -10.0% -0.3% Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities 6, % 19.9% 0.8% Table 2: New Jobs, Attrition and Total Job Openings in NL Total New Jobs Total Attrition Total Job Openings Attrition as a percentage of Total Job Openings Total, All Occupations 2,837 11,560 14, % Management 81 1,240 1, % Business, Finance and Administration 588 2,016 2, % Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations , % Health Occupations 1,077 1,162 2, % Social Science, Education, Government Services and Religion , % Arts, Culture, Recreation and Sport % Sales and Service Occupations 1,085 2,380 3, % Trades, Transport and Equipment -1,118 1, % Occupations Unique to Primary Industry % Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities % Note: Attrition as a percentage of total job openings is capped at 100%.

12 P a g e 11 Management Occupations Approximately 18,700 workers were employed in management occupations in 2012, which represents 8.1% of total employment in the province. growth in this category is expected to be below average at 0.2% annually over the forecast period, and there is a higher than average level of employment in the 55+ age group. As a result, nearly 94% of all job openings will be caused by attrition, due largely to retirements. opportunities are expected to fall slightly for some occupations such as Senior Managers in Health, Education, Social and Community Services and Membership Organizations 3, and Recreation, Sports and Fitness Program and Service Directors. Unemployment levels were generally low in this occupational grouping in prospects for most management occupations are described as fair. However, Senior Managers in Financial, Communications and Other Business Services, Financial Managers, Administrators in Post-Secondary Education and Vocational Training, and Primary Production Managers (Except Agriculture) are expected to experience good employment prospects. Business, Finance and Administration Occupations With 34,400 people or almost 15% of all workers in the province employed in business, finance and administration occupations, this was the third largest of the ten occupational categories in growth should be slightly above average at 0.8% annually over the forecast period. in the 55+ age group is close to the average for all occupations. Approximately 77% of job openings will be caused by attrition. The six largest occupations in this group are forecast to represent nearly half of the group s job openings. This includes occupations such as Financial Auditors and Accountants, Administrative Officers, Receptionists, Secretaries, and some clerk positions. Unemployment levels were generally low in this occupational grouping in 2012, with the exception of General Office Clerks, and Storekeepers and Parts Clerks. prospects are mostly fair for the category as a whole, but within the category, most of the professional occupations in this group have a good outlook. These include Financial Auditors and Accountants and Specialists in Human Resources. Prospects for the technical, paraprofessional and skilled occupations are expected to be fair, with the exception of Medical Secretaries, Executive Assistants, and Court Recorders and Medical Transcriptionists, which have a good outlook due to stronger than average growth and low unemployment. 3 The 10 major occupational categories of the National Occupational Classification (NOC), 2006 version, such as Management Occupations, are subdivided further into different occupations by the NOC system. The occupations listed in italics in this document refer to the 4-digit NOC categories of occupations. Further information can be obtained from the NOC website at

13 P a g e 12 The outlook for the intermediate skill level occupations is mostly fair. However, employment prospects for Records Management and Filing Clerks are expected to be good as a result of stronger than average growth and low unemployment. Customer Service, Information and Related Clerks, and Letter Carriers will see limited employment prospects. Canada Post has announced that significant job cuts will occur over the next few years in an effort to cut costs. Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations Approximately 17,300 people, representing 7.5% of workers in NL, were employed in natural and applied sciences and related occupations in growth for this category is expected to be slightly above the average for all occupations, at 0.8% per year over the forecast period. in the 55+ age group is below the average for all occupations. Around 73% of job openings will be generated by attrition. Unemployment levels were generally low in this occupational grouping in 2012, with the exception of Geological and Mineral Technologists and Technicians and Non-Destructive Testers and Inspectors. prospects are mostly fair for professional occupations in this category which require a university degree. However, most engineering occupations are expected to experience good employment prospects over the forecast period due to strong major project activity in the province. prospects for technical occupations related to natural and applied sciences are expected to be fair for the most part. However, Deck Officers and Engineering Officers in Water Transport are expected to have a good outlook. Strong activity in the offshore oil and gas industry should help drive demand for these occupations. Limited outlooks are expected for Conservation and Fishery Officers and Biological Technologists and Technicians due to lower than average growth. Health Occupations Approximately 21,700 people, representing 9.4% of workers, were employed in health occupations in growth in health occupations over the forecast period is expected to be the highest of the ten categories at 2.4% annually. in the 55+ age group is below the average for all occupations, and only 52% of job openings (the lowest of the ten categories) will be caused by attrition. This is both because a lower than average share of workers are near retirement and demand for workers in health occupations (i.e. expansion demand) is expected to grow. Unemployment levels were generally very low in this occupational grouping in 2012.

14 P a g e 13 As a result of low unemployment, lower levels of attrition on average, and an aging population in the region that will continue to increase the demand for health care, employment prospects over the forecast period are expected to be fair or good for all occupations in this category. One thing that could potentially change that outlook is the possibility of lower than expected health budgets as governments address fiscal positions. The provincial government s budget in March 2013 called for an operational review for province s health boards, with an emphasis on containing costs while maintaining service delivery to patients. Most professional occupations requiring a university degree have a good employment prospect. This includes Physicians, Nurses, Dentists, Veterinarians, Pharmacists, and Physiotherapists. These occupations can be characterised as having a low level of unemployment and higher than average growth rate. The outlook for technical and skilled occupations in health has a mix of good and fair outlooks, which is not as optimistic as for professional occupations in the area of health. Some technical and skilled occupations with a good employment prospect are Respiratory Therapists, Clinical Perfusionists and Cardiopulmonary Technologists, Dental Hygienists and Dental Therapists, and Licenced Practical Nurses. Occupations with a fair outlook include Medical Laboratory Technologists, Medical Radiation Technologists, as well as Ambulance Attendants and Other Paramedical Occupations. Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Services and Religion Approximately 21,300 or 9.2% of workers were employed in occupations in social science, education, government services and religion in growth is expected to be above average at 1.7% per year over the forecast period. in the 55+ age group is close to the average for all occupations. Only 59% of job openings will still be caused by attrition. This is the second lowest among the ten occupational groupings. Unemployment levels were generally low for this group in prospects are mostly fair for this occupational group. As governments struggle with deficits and high debt levels, fiscal restraint is expected to restrain growth in many occupations in this group which fall within the realm of the public sector, such as Teachers, Social Workers, College and Other Vocational Instructors, Counsellors, and various policy research occupations. Prospects are good for Psychologists mainly because of higher than average employment growth and very low levels of unemployment. A high level of attrition is generating a good outlook for University Professors as well. growth in education is expected to be restrained by a combination of factors. While attrition is higher than average for teachers in the K-12 system, student enrollment has declined over time as a result of out-migration and low fertility rates, placing downward pressure

15 P a g e 14 on the number of teachers and schools required. In addition, the education system is under considerable budgetary pressures. These factors combine to produce a fair outlook for Secondary School Teachers and Elementary School and Kindergarten Teachers. Occupations in Arts, Culture, and Sport and Recreation Approximately 4,100 people, representing 1.8% of workers, were employed in Occupations in Arts, Culture, and Sport and Recreation in 2012, making it the smallest of the ten occupational groups. growth in this group is expected to be close to the average for all occupations at 0.7% annually over the forecast period. in the 55+ age group is slightly below the average for all occupations. Approximately 74% of all job openings in this category are expected to be filled by attrition. This is slightly below the rate for all occupations, which is 80%. Unemployment levels were low to moderate for most occupations in this grouping in 2012, with the exception of Artisans and Craftspersons, Support Occupations in Motion Pictures, Broadcasting and the Performing Arts, and Other Technical and Co-ordinating Occupations in Motion Pictures, Broadcasting and the Performing Arts. prospects are mostly fair for the majority of occupations in this group due to the small size of most occupations and a low number of job openings generated by expansion or attrition. However, job prospects for Broadcast Technicians, Announcers and Other Broadcasters, and Sports Officials and Referees are expected to be limited due to the small size of the occupations, below average growth rates, and very low attrition levels. Sales and Service Occupations The Sales and Service occupational group was the largest category of employment in NL in 2012, with 57,100 people representing almost a quarter of all workers (24.8%) employed in these occupations. growth is forecast to be slightly above average at 0.9% per year over the forecast period. The percentage of workers who are in the 55+ age group is close to the average for all occupations, and around 69% of job openings are forecast to be caused by attrition. Unemployment levels were slightly below average for most occupations in this grouping in However, unemployment was notably higher for Outdoor Sport and Recreational Guides, Executive Housekeepers, and Operators and Attendants in Amusement, Recreation and Sport. prospects are mostly fair for this category, due mostly to moderate growth and near average attrition and unemployment levels. Despite low growth and attrition levels, some occupations employ a large number of people and have high turnover rates, which will create

16 P a g e 15 some opportunities for work. These occupations include Retail Salesperson and Sales Clerk, Cashiers, and Food Counter Attendants, Kitchen Helpers and Related Occupations. prospects for Visiting Homemakers, Housekeepers and Related Occupations are expected to be fair over the forecast period. Growth is expected to be slightly above average, driven mainly by an aging population requiring such services in order to stay in their homes longer. In addition, attrition levels will be higher than average, creating opportunities as people retire. However, unemployment in the occupation is also higher than average, dampening the outlook to fair. Prospects are expected to be good for two occupations. Funeral Directors and Embalmers will have higher than average growth, partly due to an aging population. In addition, attrition will be higher than average and unemployment is very low for this occupation. Estheticians, Electrologists and Related Occupations will also have a good outlook, mainly due to strong growth and low unemployment. A number of occupations will experience limited employment prospects for the forecast period. This includes Travel Counsellors, Tour and Travel Guides, Outdoor Sport and Recreational Guides, and Service Station Attendants. Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations Approximately 39,000 people representing 16.9% of workers in NL were employed in Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations in growth is expected to be below average at -1.4% annually over the forecast period. This is mainly due to the construction industry, where employment should decline from its current record high levels, yet will remain very strong in terms of historical perspective. The province has multiple major projects ongoing over the forecast period which will require construction-related employment. While the construction of Vale s Hydromet Nickel Processing Facility is now winding down, construction related to the Hebron Oil Project and Muskrat Falls Hydroelectric Development are both underway and will be quite active over the next few years. in the 55+ age group is above the average for this occupational group, and job openings will be created by attrition. Unemployment levels were also above the average for many occupations in this grouping in However, this may reflect mostly temporary or frictional unemployment. Many who work in construction in the province tend to move from one project to another, creating periods of unemployment at times, though they may be brief. The use of Insurance is prevalent for this group even in very good economic conditions. Another factor affecting prospects related to the construction industry is that residential construction is expected to decline over the forecast period, as market demands are falling more in line with available supply of housing.

17 P a g e 16 Besides construction, this group of occupations includes a number of other industries. Transportation and warehousing as well as wholesale and retail trade are two examples of such industries. Since economic activity remains quite strong in the province, these industries are expected to continue to have high employment. This will contribute to the prospects of those in this occupational group. The mining and oil and gas industries are also key employers of workers in the skilled trades and in various occupations in transport and equipment operation. The mining and oil and gas industries in the province are very strong and have become key contributors to the provincial economy. With multiple projects underway and more on the horizon, prospects for these industries remain bright over the forecast period. prospects for the occupations in this category are mostly fair. The decline in residential construction creates a fair outlook for occupations such as Carpenters, Construction Trades Helpers and Labourers, Painters and Decorators, and Floor Covering Installers. Other occupations with a fair outlook include Motor Vehicle Body Repairers, Deck Crew - Water Transport, Public Works Maintenance Equipment Operators, Telecommunications Installation and Repair Workers, and Delivery and Courier Service Drivers. Occupations in this group with good outlooks have strong ties to the significant amount of major project activity that is underway in the province. This includes Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers, Sheet Metal Workers, Welders and Related Machine Operators, Crane Operators, and Heavy-Duty Equipment Mechanics. Some occupations with limited prospects include Public Works and Maintenance Labourers and Printing Press Operators. Occupations with limited outlooks have a notably lower than average growth rate and unemployment is significantly higher than average. Occupations Unique to Primary Industry Approximately 9,800 people representing 4.3% of workers were employed in occupations unique to primary industry in growth is expected to be below average at -0.3% per year over the forecast period. in the 55+ age group is above the average, and attrition will be the main cause of job openings. Unemployment levels were high for most occupations in this grouping in prospects are mostly limited for occupations involving the fishery, forestry and logging. Growth in these occupations is expected to be negative, while unemployment is high. This includes occupations such as Logging Machinery Operators, Logging and Forestry Labourers, Chain Saw and Skidder Operators, Fishing Vessel Skippers and Fishermen/women, and Fishing Vessel Deckhands. On the other hand, many occupations in this group that are related to mining and oil and gas have a good outlook, since these industries are strong in the province and will remain strong

18 P a g e 17 through the forecast period. This includes occupations such as Supervisors in Mining and Quarrying, Underground Production and Development Miners, Mine Labourers, Supervisors in Oil and Gas Drilling and Service, and Oil and Gas Well Drillers, Servicers, Testers and Related Workers. Many occupations in Farming and Aquaculture have a fair outlook. They are mostly expected to have little growth. The occupations include Farmers and Farm Managers, Aquaculture Operators and Managers, and Aquaculture and Marine Harvest Labourers. Despite being part of the oil and gas industry, Servicing and Related Labourers in Oil and Gas Drilling have a fair outlook. While growth for this occupation is above average, attrition levels are low and unemployment is higher than average. Oil and Gas Well Drilling Workers and Services Operators also have a fair outlook. Although unemployment in this profession is lower than average, growth is essentially flat while opportunities due to attrition are virtually nonexistent. Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturing and Utilities Approximately 6,900 people representing 3% of workers were employed in occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities in growth should be slightly above average at 0.8% annually over the forecast period. The percentage of workers who are in the 55+ age group is also among the highest of all occupational groups. As a result, more than three-quarters of all job openings are expected to be caused by attrition. Unemployment levels for this group were higher than any other in prospects, however, are mostly limited for occupations in this category, especially occupations in fish processing. For occupations such as Fish Plant Workers and Labourers in Fish Processing, growth is slightly above average while attrition is close to average. However, unemployment is high in these occupations. The seafood processing industry has been downsizing in recent years as it addresses overcapacity issues, faces competitive challenges from other countries, and experiences a change in market demand for seafood products. For occupations related to forestry and paper manufacturing such as Labourers in Wood, Pulp and Paper Processing and Sawmill Machine Operators, the outlook is also expected to be limited. Growth and opportunities related to attrition are forecast to be below average, while unemployment is higher than average. The number of paper mills in the province has been cut from three to one in recent years, with the last remaining mill now operating at a reduced capacity. Occupations in this category which are related to the mining and oil and gas industries have a more optimistic outlook of fair, mainly due to the overall strength of these industries. This includes Petroleum, Gas and Chemical Process Operators, Supervisors in Petroleum, Gas and Chemical Processing and Utilities, and Labourers in Mineral and Metal Processing. Other

19 P a g e 18 occupations in this group with a fair outlook include Water and Waste Plant Operators, as well as Industrial Painters and Coaters.

20 P a g e 19 Part 2: Potential Calls by Detailed Occupational Group

21 P a g e 20 Occupational Outlook Province of Newfoundland and Labrador NOC Code Occupational Title 2012 Potential Management Occupations 0011 Legislators 143 Fair 0012 Senior Government Managers and Officials 374 Fair 0013 Senior Managers - Financial, Communications and Other Business Services 0014 Senior Managers - Health, Education, Social and Community Services and Membership Organizations 310 Good 66 Limited 0016 Senior Managers - Goods Production, Utilities, Transportation and 208 Fair Construction 0111 Financial Managers 980 Good 0112 Human Resources Managers 403 Fair 0114 Other Administrative Services Managers 183 Fair 0121 Insurance, Real Estate and Financial Brokerage Managers 306 Good 0122 Banking, Credit and Other Investment Managers 535 Fair 0123 Other Business Services Managers 352 Good 0131 Telecommunication Carriers Managers 137 Fair 0211 Engineering Managers 279 Fair 0212 Architecture and Science Managers 63 Fair 0213 Computer and Information Systems Managers 463 Fair 0311 Managers in Health Care 420 Fair 0312 Administrators - Post-Secondary Education and Vocational Training 239 Good 0313 School Principals and Administrators of Elementary and Secondary 713 Fair Education 0314 Managers in Social, Community and Correctional Services 375 Fair 0411 Government Managers - Health and Social Policy Development and Program Administration 0412 Government Managers - Economic Analysis, Policy Development and Program Administration 179 Fair 179 Fair 0414 Other Managers in Public Administration 469 Fair 0511 Library, Archive, Museum and Art Gallery Managers 100 Fair 0512 Managers - Publishing, Motion Pictures, Broadcasting and 89 Fair Performing Arts 0513 Recreation, Sports and Fitness Program and Service Directors 94 Limited 0611 Sales, Marketing and Advertising Managers 979 Fair 0621 Retail Trade Managers 4244 Fair 0631 Restaurant and Food Service Managers 1440 Fair 0632 Accommodation Service Managers 598 Good

22 P a g e 21 NOC Code Occupational Title 2012 Potential Commissioned Police Officers 52 Fair 0651 Other Services Managers 189 Fair 0711 Construction Managers 968 Fair 0712 Residential Home Builders and Renovators 1165 Fair 0713 Transportation Managers 415 Fair 0721 Facility Operation and Maintenance Managers 427 Fair 0811 Primary Production Managers (Except Agriculture) 125 Good 0911 Manufacturing Managers 294 Good 0912 Utilities Managers 90 Fair Business, Finance and Administrative Occupations 1111 Financial Auditors and Accountants 2331 Good 1112 Financial and Investment Analysts 496 Fair 1114 Other Financial Officers 556 Good 1121 Specialists in Human Resources 953 Good 1122 Professional Occupations in Business Services to Management 569 Good 1211 Supervisors, General Office and Administrative Support Clerks 440 Fair 1212 Supervisors, Finance and Insurance Clerks 1019 Fair 1213 Supervisors, Library, Correspondence and Related Information 358 Fair Clerks 1214 Supervisors, Mail and Message Distribution Occupations 445 Fair 1215 Supervisors, Recording, Distributing and Scheduling Occupations 583 Fair 1221 Administrative Officers 3309 Fair 1222 Executive Assistants 412 Good 1223 Personnel and Recruitment Officers 226 Fair 1224 Property Administrators 233 Fair 1225 Purchasing Agents and Officers 589 Fair 1226 Conference and Event Planners 190 Fair 1227 Court Officers and Justices of the Peace 211 Fair 1228 Immigration, Insurance and Revenue Officers 362 Fair 1231 Bookkeepers 893 Fair 1232 Loan Officers 412 Fair 1233 Insurance Adjusters and Claims Examiners 356 Fair 1234 Insurance Underwriters 181 Fair 1235 Assessors, Valuators and Appraisers 156 Fair 1236 Customs, Ship and Other Brokers 100 Fair 1241 Secretaries (Except Legal and Medical) 1292 Fair 1243 Medical Secretaries 440 Good 1244 Court Recorders and Medical Transcriptionists 145 Good

23 P a g e 22 NOC Code Occupational Title 2012 Potential General Office Clerks 1037 Fair 1413 Records Management and Filing Clerks 861 Good 1414 Receptionists and Switchboard Operators 2596 Fair 1422 Data Entry Clerks 593 Fair 1423 Desktop Publishing Operators and Related Occupations 89 Fair 1431 Accounting and Related Clerks 2000 Fair 1432 Payroll Clerks 833 Fair 1433 Customer Service Representatives - Financial Services 957 Fair 1434 Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Clerks 219 Fair 1435 Collectors 123 Fair 1441 Administrative Clerks 2406 Fair 1442 Personnel Clerks 52 Fair 1451 Library Clerks 58 Fair 1453 Customer Service, Information and Related Clerks 2236 Limited 1461 Mail, Postal and Related Clerks 549 Fair 1462 Letter Carriers 379 Limited 1463 Couriers, Messengers and Door-to-Door Distributors 263 Fair 1471 Shippers and Receivers 874 Fair 1472 Storekeepers and Parts Clerks 263 Fair 1473 Production Clerks 225 Fair 1474 Purchasing and Inventory Clerks 169 Fair 1475 Dispatchers and Radio Operators 314 Fair Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations 2112 Chemists 79 Fair 2113 Geologists, Geochemists and Geophysicists 215 Fair 2121 Biologists and Related Scientists 318 Fair 2122 Forestry Professionals 52 Fair 2131 Civil Engineers 1017 Good 2132 Mechanical Engineers 392 Good 2133 Electrical and Electronics Engineers 381 Good 2134 Chemical Engineers 83 Fair 2141 Industrial and Manufacturing Engineers 86 Good 2142 Metallurgical and Materials Engineers 55 Fair 2143 Mining Engineers 54 Good 2145 Petroleum Engineers 599 Fair 2147 Computer Engineers (Except Software Engineers and Designers) 185 Fair 2148 Other Professional Engineers, n.e.c. 410 Fair

24 P a g e 23 NOC Code Occupational Title 2012 Potential Architects 75 Fair 2154 Land Surveyors 130 Fair 2171 Information Systems Analysts and Consultants 1395 Good 2172 Database Analysts and Data Administrators 560 Fair 2173 Software Engineers and Designers 124 Good 2174 Computer Programmers and Interactive Media Developers 815 Fair 2175 Web Designers and Developers 163 Fair 2212 Geological and Mineral Technologists and Technicians 242 Fair 2213 Meteorological Technicians 104 Fair 2221 Biological Technologists and Technicians 182 Limited 2222 Agricultural and Fish Products Inspectors 117 Fair 2224 Conservation and Fishery Officers 702 Limited 2231 Civil Engineering Technologists and Technicians 257 Good 2232 Mechanical Engineering Technologists and Technicians 220 Fair 2233 Industrial Engineering and Manufacturing Technologists and 65 Fair Technicians 2234 Construction Estimators 136 Fair 2241 Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technologists and 735 Fair Technicians 2242 Electronic Service Technicians (Household and Business 784 Fair Equipment) 2243 Industrial Instrument Technicians and Mechanics 422 Good 2251 Architectural Technologists and Technicians 70 Fair 2253 Drafting Technologists and Technicians 242 Fair 2254 Land Survey Technologists and Technicians 94 Fair 2255 Mapping and Related Technologists and Technicians 32 Fair 2261 Non-Destructive Testers and Inspectors 83 Fair 2262 Engineering Inspectors and Regulatory Officers 230 Good 2263 Inspectors in Public and Environmental Health and Occupational 1005 Fair Health and Safety 2264 Construction Inspectors 308 Fair 2271 Air Pilots, Flight Engineers and Flying Instructors 538 Fair 2272 Air Traffic Control and Related Occupations 252 Fair 2273 Deck Officers, Water Transport 641 Good 2274 Engineer Officers, Water Transport 744 Good 2281 Computer Network Technicians 1020 Fair 2282 User Support Technicians 655 Fair Health Occupations 3111 Specialist Physicians 637 Good

25 P a g e 24 NOC Code Occupational Title 2012 Potential General Practitioners and Family Physicians 1160 Good 3113 Dentists 74 Good 3114 Veterinarians 119 Good 3123 Other Professional Occupations in Health Diagnosing and Treating 80 Fair 3131 Pharmacists 493 Good 3132 Dietitians and Nutritionists 117 Fair 3141 Audiologists and Speech-Language Pathologists 286 Fair 3142 Physiotherapists 176 Good 3143 Occupational Therapists 70 Good 3144 Other Professional Occupations in Therapy and Assessment 251 Fair 3151 Head Nurses and Supervisors 487 Good 3152 Registered Nurses 6403 Good 3211 Medical Laboratory Technologists and Pathologists' Assistants 486 Fair 3212 Medical Laboratory Technicians 401 Fair 3213 Veterinary and Animal Health Technologists and Technicians 71 Good 3214 Respiratory Therapists, Clinical Perfusionists and Cardiopulmonary 231 Good Technologists 3215 Medical Radiation Technologists 559 Fair 3216 Medical Sonographers 61 Fair 3219 Other Medical Technologists and Technicians (Except Dental 86 Fair Health) 3221 Denturists 56 Fair 3222 Dental Hygienists and Dental Therapists 408 Good 3223 Dental Technologists, Technicians and Laboratory Bench Workers 84 Fair 3231 Opticians 187 Good 3233 Licensed Practical Nurses 1978 Good 3234 Ambulance Attendants and Other Paramedical Occupations 715 Fair 3235 Other Technical Occupations in Therapy and Assessment 395 Good 3411 Dental Assistants 568 Fair 3413 Nurse Aides, Orderlies and Patient Service Associates 4033 Good 3414 Other Assisting Occupations in Support of Health Services 968 Fair Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Services and Religion 4112 Lawyers and Quebec Notaries 645 Good 4121 University Professors 1932 Good 4122 Post-Secondary Teaching and Research Assistants 806 Fair 4131 College and Other Vocational Instructors 1407 Fair 4141 Secondary School Teachers 2457 Fair 4142 Elementary School and Kindergarten Teachers 4096 Fair 4143 Educational Counsellors 412 Fair

26 P a g e 25 NOC Code Occupational Title 2012 Potential Psychologists 157 Good 4152 Social Workers 1267 Fair 4153 Family, Marriage and Other Related Counsellors 579 Fair 4154 Ministers of Religion 730 Fair 4161 Natural and Applied Science Policy Researchers, Consultants and 191 Fair Program Officers 4162 Economists and Economic Policy Researchers and Analysts 163 Fair 4163 Business Development Officers and Marketing Researchers and 440 Fair Consultants 4164 Social Policy Researchers, Consultants and Program Officers 480 Fair 4165 Health Policy Researchers, Consultants and Program Officers 423 Fair 4166 Education Policy Researchers, Consultants and Program Officers 453 Fair 4167 Recreation, Sports and Fitness Program Supervisors and 92 Fair Consultants 4168 Program Officers Unique to Government 298 Fair 4211 Paralegal and Related Occupations 320 Fair 4212 Community and Social Service Workers 1304 Fair 4213 Counsellors 333 Fair 4214 Early Childhood Educators and Assistants 1998 Fair 4215 Instructors and Teachers of Persons with Disabilities 159 Fair 4216 Other Instructors 94 Fair 4217 Other Religious Occupations 62 Limited Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport 5111 Librarians 72 Fair 5112 Conservators and Curators 71 Limited 5121 Authors and Writers 91 Fair 5124 Professional Occupations in Public Relations and Communications 410 Fair 5125 Translators, Terminologists and Interpreters 57 Fair 5131 Producers, Directors, Choreographers and Related Occupations 213 Fair 5133 Musicians and Singers 380 Fair 5134 Dancers 127 Fair 5136 Painters, Sculptors and Other Visual Artists 132 Fair 5211 Library and Archive Technicians and Assistants 280 Fair 5221 Photographers 335 Fair 5224 Broadcast Technicians 65 Limited 5231 Announcers and Other Broadcasters 61 Limited Graphic Designers and Illustrators 179 Fair 5243 Theatre, Fashion, Exhibit and Other Creative Designers 91 Fair 5244 Artisans and Craftspersons 65 Fair 5252 Coaches 167 Fair

27 P a g e 26 NOC Code Occupational Title 2012 Potential Sports Officials and Referees 117 Limited 5254 Program Leaders and Instructors in Recreation, Sport and Fitness 899 Fair Sales and Service Occupations 6211 Retail Trade Supervisors 2968 Fair 6212 Food Service Supervisors 941 Fair 6213 Executive Housekeepers 74 Limited 6215 Cleaning Supervisors 719 Fair 6216 Other Service Supervisors 269 Fair 6221 Technical Sales Specialists - Wholesale Trade 991 Fair 6231 Insurance Agents and Brokers 668 Fair 6232 Real Estate Agents and Salespersons 1073 Fair 6233 Retail and Wholesale Buyers 288 Fair 6241 Chefs 278 Fair 6242 Cooks 2355 Fair 6251 Butchers, Meat Cutters and Fishmongers - Retail and Wholesale 768 Fair 6252 Bakers 651 Fair 6261 Police Officers (Except Commissioned) 917 Fair 6262 Firefighters 522 Fair 6271 Hairstylists and Barbers 1519 Fair 6272 Funeral Directors and Embalmers 191 Good 6411 Sales Representatives - Wholesale Trade (Non-Technical) 1385 Fair 6421 Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks 6165 Fair 6431 Travel Counsellors 107 Limited 6432 Pursers and Flight Attendants 53 Fair 6433 Airline Sales and Service Agents 135 Fair 6435 Hotel Front Desk Clerks 698 Fair 6441 Tour and Travel Guides 46 Limited 6442 Outdoor Sport and Recreational Guides 62 Limited 6451 Maîtres d'hôtel and Hosts/Hostesses 225 Fair 6452 Bartenders 669 Fair 6453 Food and Beverage Servers 1537 Fair 6461 Sheriffs and Bailiffs 53 Fair 6462 Correctional Service Officers 425 Fair 6463 By-Law Enforcement and Other Regulatory Officers, n.e.c. 184 Fair 6471 Visiting Homemakers, Housekeepers and Related Occupations 5535 Fair 6472 Elementary and Secondary School Teacher Assistants 795 Fair 6474 Babysitters, Nannies and Parents' Helpers 1377 Fair

28 P a g e 27 NOC Code Occupational Title 2012 Potential Estheticians, Electrologists and Related Occupations 586 Good 6483 Pet Groomers and Animal Care Workers 110 Fair 6611 Cashiers 7481 Fair 6621 Service Station Attendants 133 Limited 6622 Grocery Clerks and Store Shelf Stockers 2625 Fair 6623 Other Elemental Sales Occupations 214 Fair 6641 Food Counter Attendants, Kitchen Helpers and Related Occupations 3530 Fair 6651 Security Guards and Related Occupations 1392 Fair 6661 Light Duty Cleaners 2152 Fair 6662 Specialized Cleaners 260 Fair 6663 Janitors, Caretakers and Building Superintendents 2928 Fair 6671 Operators and Attendants in Amusement, Recreation and Sport 237 Limited 6672 Other Attendants in Accommodation and Travel 200 Fair 6681 Dry Cleaning and Laundry Occupations 334 Fair 6683 Other Elemental Service Occupations 299 Fair Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations 7212 Contractors and Supervisors, Electrical Trades and Telecommunications Occupations 403 Good 7213 Contractors and Supervisors, Pipefitting Trades 102 Good 7214 Contractors and Supervisors, Metal Forming, Shaping and Erecting 332 Good Trades 7215 Contractors and Supervisors, Carpentry Trades 233 Fair 7216 Contractors and Supervisors, Mechanic Trades 945 Good 7217 Contractors and Supervisors, Heavy Construction Equipment Crews 685 Fair 7218 Supervisors, Printing and Related Occupations 106 Limited 7219 Contractors and Supervisors, Other Construction Trades, Installers, Repairers and Servicers 420 Fair 7222 Supervisors, Motor Transport and Other Ground Transit Operators 252 Fair 7231 Machinists and Machining and Tooling Inspectors 381 Fair 7241 Electricians (Except Industrial and Power System) 2313 Good 7242 Industrial Electricians 603 Fair 7244 Electrical Power Line and Cable Workers 396 Fair 7245 Telecommunications Line and Cable Workers 133 Fair 7246 Telecommunications Installation and Repair Workers 450 Fair 7251 Plumbers 185 Good 7252 Steamfitters, Pipefitters and Sprinkler System Installers 1009 Good 7261 Sheet Metal Workers 320 Good 7262 Boilermakers 234 Good