Berkeley, CA rainfall July 1,2015 to February 16, February 16, 2016 UC Berkeley weather update

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1 Berkeley, CA rainfall July 1,2015 to February 16, 2016 February 16, 2016 UC Berkeley weather update Rain Year Berkeley and Richmond (all number are inches of rainfall) Date Berkeley Berkeley Last 30 Last 7 days Richmond Richmond Last 30 days Last 7 days total daily YTD days total total daily YTD total 7/1-10/31/ /1/ /9/ /15/ /24-25/ /2/ /6-7/ /10-11/ /13/ /18-21/ /21-22/ /22/ /23-24/ /28/ /30/ /4/ /5/ /6-7/ /9/ /13/ /14/ /15/ /16/ /17/ /18/ /19/ /22/ /23/ /27/ /29/ /2/ QPF to 2/19/ * QPF = NWS Quantitative Precipitation Forecast through Saturday noon Current critical antecedent conditions status for UC Berkeley and BGC: Both Berkeley campus and BGC are not fully primed for floodingseven day total is < 3 and no significant storm (2 in the next 24 hours is forecast by NWS). Also, 30 day totals have dropped to below 5 and are not expected to rise any time soon (maybe again in mid March).

2 Current National Weather Service forecast February 16, 2016 morning Detailed Forecast Today Sunny, with a high near 77. East northeast wind 10 to 13 mph. Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. East wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Wednesday Rain, mainly after 4pm. High near 67. Breezy, with a south wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 19 to 24 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Wednesday Night Rain before 10pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 10pm. Low around 50. Southwest wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. South southwest wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Night A 20 percent chance of rain before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Friday A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. Friday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 69. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Monday Sunny, with a high near 73. Forecast synopsis (Tuesday 2/16/16) Rain is forecast to return for the first time in two weeks along with cooler weather beginning Wednesday afternoon. The current forecast calls for around a half an inch or rain through Thursday with a probability of precipitation at 85% tomorrow afternoon and another small system bringing rain chances on Friday After Friday, a high pressure builds over the West Coast for a dry weekend. The current extended forecasts call for normal precipitation through the end of the month. In the 3-4 week outlook, rain chances for southern California increase to 55% above normal and so maybe the rain track will move towards us from the North Coast.

3 Remainder of February looks to be dry, with rain chances increasing to the south in March. NCEP 8-14day precipitation forecast (February 23-29, 2016) NCEP 3-4 week precipitation probability (Made 2/12/16 for February 27 March 11)

4 NOAA GEFS Total Cumulative Precipitation February 11, 2016 through February 27, 2016 NOAA GEFS Total Cumulative Precipitation February 16, 2016 through March 3, 2016

5 Rainfall this season is running above historical seasonal averages for most of the state (the south is running below average). Reservoirs are slowing rebounding and the Sierra snow cover continues to be near normal (although it dropped with the recent warm dry weather) and will be infused with more snow this week.

6 January 17, 2012 January 15, 2013 January 21, 2014 January 20, 2015 Drought Progress February 9, 2016 Current Conditions

7 waterconditions.cfm https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2016-elni%c3%b1o-update-q-a%e2%80%a6and-some-thursday-morningquarterbacking

8 Red contours = MJO active phase forecast- as in January 2016 which lead to above normal precipitation for most of northern CA, the active phase of the MJO is expected to return in March and may enhance the El Nino base state, possibly bringing more rain to the state. (Figure from Long Range Outlook The active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation is anticipated to enhance El Nino base-state convective activity and may return rainfall to Central and Southern California beginning later February and early March. El Nino conditions (sea surface temperatures > 0.5 in the Nino3.4 region) may continue through the summer into early fall.

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