Update on Australia s carbon pricing mechanism

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1 Update on Australia s carbon pricing mechanism Dr Subho Banerjee December

2 Summary Australia faces a significant emissions reduction challenge The Australian Government has put in place a comprehensive policy package, with a carbon price as the centrepiece The carbon price mechanism drives least cost abatement in the economy, and will be linked to the international carbon price The goal is to achieve continued economic growth while decoupling from emissions growth 2

3 Australia s projected emissions growth means that it has a significant abatement challenge Mt CO 2 -e % of 1990 level 2000 level Kyoto period % change on 2000 level +22% +13% -5% -15% -25% Abatement challenge in 2020 (Mt CO 2 -e) International Domestic -269 NGGI Domestic emissions, without carbon price or CFI Domestic emissions, with carbon price and CFI Commitment by 2020 (reduction from 2000 levels) Per capita Net emissions, -5 % trajectory Net emissions, -15 % trajectory Net emissions, -25 % trajectory % % per capita

4 The carbon pricing mechanism is the centrepiece of an integrated policy response Energy Innovation: Renewable Energy Target Carbon Farming Initiative Energy Efficiency measures Carbon pricing mechanism Energy Innovation: Clean Energy Finance Corporation Australian Renewable Energy Agency 4

5 The carbon price was developed through an extensive policy design process Architecture Coverage Moving to a clean energy economy Implementation, compliance and administration A flexible mechanism capable of matching ambition and stability in policy settings Predictability in cap setting Ensuring the most efficient allocation of units Lowest cost abatement with international linking Ensuring broad coverage and managing administrative complexity Putting liability where emissions are produced - or as high as possible in the supply chain - but providing flexibility where needed Preventing carbon leakage while maintaining abatement incentives Maintaining energy security and encouraging supplyside investment Encouraging demand-side drivers for clean energy A staged process of introduction An established accounting system Clear compliance requirements Robust administration and enforcement 5

6 What sectors are covered by the carbon price? Landfill Waste 4 Mt Transport 23 Mt Industrial Processes 23 Mt Mt Fugitive Emissions 38 Mt Mt Other stationary energy generation 87 Mt 50 0 Covered emissions Not Covered Electricity Generation (power stations using nonrenewable fuels) 207 Mt Source: 2009 NGERS data 6

7 What sectors are not covered by the carbon price? Fugitive emissions from decomissioned underground mines Legacy industrial process 6 Mt 6 Mt Legacy landfill waste 10 Mt Mt Land use 19 Mt 150 On-road and light transport 61 Mt Mt 50 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 85 Mt 0 Covered emissions Not Covered Source: 2009 NGERS data 7

8 The carbon price mechanism will switch from a fixed to flexible price on 1 July 2015 Fixed Price Period Flexible Price Period (first three years) $23.00 $24.15 $25.40 In first 3 years of the flexible price there is a price ceiling that will be set at $20 above expected international price, rising by 5% real pa. Started on 1 July 2012 Automatic transfer to flexible price on 1 July

9 A key advantage of a carbon pricing mechanism is the ability to link to other markets Carbon pricing mechanism is designed to link to international carbon markets. From 1 July 2015, international units are expected to be used by a significant number of liable entities. The domestic carbon price is expected to be set by the international carbon price Export of Australian emissions units allowed once price ceiling no longer in place (from 2018). 9

10 Negotiations are underway to finalise implementation for EU linking European allowances can be surrendered for compliance from 1 July 2015 European allowances are defined as a prescribed international unit Liable entities can purchase European allowances now Imports of European allowances once registry arrangements become operational Working with the EC to agree these arrangements by mid-2013, with implementation thereafter Exports of Australian units are possible after the full link is established 10

11 Governance in place to administer the scheme, and provide advice on future improvements Government and Parliament International pollution reduction actions Jobs and Competitiveness Program Fuel excise and taxation regime Carbon Price Carbon Farming Initiative Renewable Energy Target Pollution Caps Operation of Carbon Price Mitigation initiatives Pollution Reduction Targets 11

12 Economic growth will continue, but decoupled from emissions growth GNI per person Emissions 2010 $' ,200 Mt CO 2 -e 80 Without carbon pricing 1,000 Without carbon pricing 60 Including overseas abatement With carbon pricing Including overseas abatement Source: Treasury estimates from MMRF 12

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