The way ahead. Transport survey Where next? Fifth report

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1 Financial institutions Energy Infrastructure, mining and commodities Transport Technology and innovation Life sciences and healthcare The way ahead Transport survey Where next? Fifth report

2 Contents 03 Executive summary 16 Shape of the world to come 04 Key findings 17 W hat will be the most significant change in the participants in the sector most relevant to you over the next five years? 06 Opportunities 07 Are current market conditions positive for your business or operational sector? 09 What investment opportunity would you currently consider the most advantageous to your business or operational sector? 10 W hich of the following countries/regions offer your business or operational sector the best opportunity for investment over the next two to five years? 18 What is the greatest challenge to the future efficiency of operations in your business or operational sector? 19 What do you believe will happen over the next five years in the region(s) in which you operate? 22 W hich of the following will most influence the choice of fuel used in your business or by operators in your operational sector? 23 Trends 12 Global business climate 24 Trends analysis : Aviation 13 H ave you sought or offered funding in any form over the last year? 26 Trends analysis : Shipping 14 W hich of the following could be most effective in making funding more readily available to your business or operational sector? 15 What will be the likely operational impact on your business or operational sector, of the introduction of new high-capacity or high-speed assets? 28 Trends analysis : Rail 30 Conclusions 32 Methodology 33 Reader notes 34 Contacts 37 Norton Rose Fulbright

3 Executive summary Global transport sector targets new assets and markets despite overcapacity and funding concerns The global aviation, rail and shipping sectors regard investment in new assets and new markets as their leading investment opportunities despite lingering concerns about overcapacity and persistent funding issues. Regionally, China remains the most popular investment opportunity, and is expected to remain so for the next five years, but interest in investing in India, Latin America and, to some extent, Russia, has diminished. More generally, the cost of fuel, overcapacity, and doubts about the sustainability of highcapacity, high-speed assets are key concerns for the industry. Investment in technology and new staff have also fallen to low priority status. Among predictions for the future are a rise in alliances, joint ventures and pool activity, as well as increased market share for today s dominant operators and owners. We had more than 850 responses from people worldwide. The results of this survey, as in our previous surveys, have been analysed to identify the significant differences and similarities between the aviation, rail and shipping sectors, by viewing the data by sector, by region and by reference to whether the respondent is a participant or a commentator 1. Despite on-going concerns, optimism is growing, buoyed by positive views on economic indicators such as fares and freights, passenger numbers and freight volumes, and infrastructure investment in all three sectors. The issues addressed range from finance and investment, to fuel choice and the impact of emission controls. We have sought views on where opportunities lie and what governments can do to help. In some regions, the sectors are looking to governments to provide infrastructure, as well as to unlock funding from financial institutions by providing guarantees and soft loans. There is noticeable interest in the establishment of specialist transport funding institutions. 1 The results are sometimes broken down between responses from participants, (those whose stated occupation and business appear to be closer to where decisions are made which actually affect the business of aviation, rail and shipping directly), and commentators (those engaged in support professions such as law, accountancy, journalism or consultancy, who may be regarded as being removed from direct decision making). This year, participants provided 65% of responses and commentators 35%.

4 Transport survey Key findings Market conditions Current market conditions are positive (75% of respondents) and new opportunities are emerging (47%). 21% of respondents who are not positive about market conditions, cited overcapacity as the main reason. Investment opportunities Additional assets represent the most important investment opportunity for aviation (25%) and shipping (22%), while for rail respondents, it is investment in infrastructure (29%). China is considered one of the top three regional investment opportunities over the next five years by 30% of respondents. Interest has waned in India as an investment opportunity to 12% down from 31% in Challenges The dominance of today s larger participants is expected to increase in each sector over the next five years (25%). The greatest challenge to operational efficiency is an imbalance in supply and demand (19%). Only 5% see emissions controls as equally challenging, but a significant 17% are worried about finding suitably qualified staff. A rise in passenger numbers/freight volumes is predicted (82%) and 66% say fares/freights will rise, while 58% say the number of routes/services offered will grow. Fuel Fuel price/economy is by far the strongest influence on fuel selection among respondents in aviation (58%) and shipping (48%), but less clearly so in rail (37%). 75% of respondents say market conditions are positive Funding 46% of respondents have sought or offered funding in For 54% of them, pricing was the most significant issue to address. These results are similar to those in A more beneficial view of assets, for risk weighting purposes, is cited as one of the three most effective steps in making funding more readily available (26%). While the introduction of high-capacity or high-speed assets is viewed as a natural and beneficial development (28%), 19% doubt whether their operation will be sustainable. Trends The trend away from retrenchment and disposal of assets continues with the emphasis shifting to alliances/ joint ventures/pools, and to strategic acquisitions. 21% of non-positive respondents cited overcapacity as the main reason 04 Norton Rose Fulbright March 2014

5 Key findings 82% predict a rise in passenger numbers/ freight volumes 25% 47% believe that new opportunities are emerging 12% Interest has waned in India as an investment opportunity to 12% down from 31% in % consider China to be one of the top three regional investment opportunities over the next five years 58% of aviation respondents say fuel price/ economy is by far the strongest influence on fuel selection of aviation respondents say additional assets represent the most important investment opportunity 54% of respondents who have sought or offered funding in 2013 stated pricing was the most significant issue to address Norton Rose Fulbright March

6 Transport survey Section 01 Opportunities In this section, we explore the high degree of optimism overall, and how the focus on opportunities differs in each sector. This year, as in 2010, we asked which geographical markets offer the best investment opportunity. The shifts in opinion are revealing. 06 Norton Rose Fulbright March 2014

7 Section 01: Opportunities Question 1 Are current market conditions positive for your business or operational sector? O O O NO NO Aviation YES 75% 25% Shipping 3:1 Overall, by a margin of 3:1, respondents see current market conditions as positive for their business or operational sector. YES 69% 31% Rail YES 81% 19% NO Commentary The aviation sector is embarking on an optimistic but careful year. Some previous uncertainty is disappearing, as new aircraft reach the market and the effects of regulatory changes are more clearly understood. Financing is readily available, fuel prices appear stable and most importantly world economic stability (and growth) is returning. This is encouraging some market participants to take their opportunities as they arise. Duncan Batchelor, Partner, London, Whilst the improved level of optimism in the shipping sector is encouraging the fact that it is less positive than other sectors is not altogether unsurprising; the markets still remain quite difficult to predict, over-capacity remains an issue and although the availability of capital has improved this still tends to remain the preserve of the better quality owners. Simon Hartley, Partner, London, Rail is the most optimistic by a factor of 4:1, while shipping is the least optimistic (2:1) and aviation is at 3:1. Overall, 81 per cent of respondents in rail were positive about market conditions, compared with 75 per cent in aviation, and 69 per cent in shipping. Regionally, positive sentiment is evenly spread (roughly 3:1), except in Africa, where the ratio falls to 2:1. Included in those who regarded current market conditions as positive were 75% of aviation participants, 79% of rail participants and 69% of shipping participants. a) Why do you feel current market conditions are positive for your business or operational sector? (Please select one option) The main reason for optimism is the emergence of new opportunities (aviation 46%; rail 50%; shipping 48%). However, participants are themselves a little less positive in this respect (aviation 41%; rail 47%; shipping 44%). The return of economic stability in key markets is the next most important factor (in aviation (22%); and shipping (20%)). For rail, the availability of funding for investment and/or growth is the second most important factor (17%). In each case, participants across each sector view these reasons more strongly than commentators with support for these reasons for optimism among participants being aviation 25%; shipping 23% and rail 20%. The least popular reason for optimism in aviation (4%) and rail (3%) is reduced competition, and, in shipping, the impact of technological improvements (4%). Overcapacity concerns persist in all sectors, although more people in shipping (7%, but 9% of participants in this more optimistic group) believe that this issue is being resolved, with those in rail (4%) and aviation (6%) less convinced. Of the three sectors, aviation is most interested in technological developments as a positive indicator (6%), whereas rail is more interested in infrastructure improvements (13%). Norton Rose Fulbright March

8 Transport survey Why do you feel current market conditions are positive for your business or operational sector? (Please select one option) Why do you feel current market conditions are negative for your business or operational sector? (Please select one option) New opportunities are emerging Anticipated return to economic stability in key markets Overcapacity issues have been resolved No new opportunities emerging Reduced activity in key markets Global economic uncertainty The impact of infrastructure improvements Regional economic uncertainty The impact of technological improvements Overcapacity Reduced competition Global political uncertainty Funding for investment and/ or growth is available Commentary Sentiment has changed to the positive, with charter rates and vessel values expected to improve Chris Turton, Principal, Turton Marine Finance Limited, Shipping respondent Government over-regulation, fuel costs, airport taxes Dr Rob Smorfitt, CEO, ITBIH, Aviation respondent Regional political uncertainty Physical operational restrictions (e.g. poor infrastructure; fuel costs) Governmental operational restrictions (e.g. regulatory; trade barriers) Lack of funding Key: Aviation Shipping Rail Regionally, the emergence of new opportunities is seen most strongly in Central and South America (75%) with a more modest range of support (42% 58%) from other regions. Economic stability is felt most keenly in North America (23%) with about 16% of respondents from Asia Pacific and the Middle East seeing opportunities coming from the availability of funding for investment and/or growth. No respondents in Africa, Central and South America or the Middle East feel that overcapacity had been resolved, and the greatest benefit from infrastructure improvement is found in Asia Pacific (10%) and Africa (9%). b) Why do you feel current market conditions are negative for your business or operational sector? (Please select one option) The reasons for a negative outlook vary across the sectors. The key factors are global economic uncertainty in aviation, (18% participants 24%); in rail, lack of funding (27% participants 28%); and in shipping, overcapacity (40% participants 39%). Global political uncertainty does not trouble any respondent in any sector, and in general, physical operational restrictions are of low concern (aviation 6%; rail 4% shipping 0%). There is a relatively strong view in all sectors that there is reduced activity in key markets (aviation 14%; rail 12%; shipping 20%). These views are held in more or less equal proportions by participants and commentators except in shipping where just 16% of participants are of this view. From a regional perspective, overcapacity is the greatest concern overall (21%), principally for respondents from Africa, Asia Pacific and North America. In Europe, negative sentiment is driven by reduced activity in key markets, whereas for those in the Middle East it is regional political uncertainty. 08 Norton Rose Fulbright March 2014

9 Question 2 What investment opportunity would you currently consider the most advantageous to your business or operational sector? (Please select one option) Aviation Shipping Rail Joint venture(s)/ alliance(s)/pool(s) Merger(s) or acquisition(s) Additional aircraft/ ships/rolling stock Development of new markets Increased workforce numbers or skills Infrastructure improvements Aviation and shipping respondents see investment in additional aircraft or ships as the best investment opportunity. Technological improvements per cent Section 01: Opportunities Commentary Safer and less costly methods to maintain our Infrastructure through technological advancements Dermot Mills, Finance Manager, Irish Rail Limited, Rail respondent In shipping, some of the best investment opportunities in 2014 are likely to be in financial (as opposed to physical) assets. All indications are that we will see more shipping loan portfolios brought to market this year and that private equity investors, pension funds, investment funds and some banks have both the necessary liquidity and appetite for the investment and trading opportunities that these portfolios can generate. Simon Lew, Partner, London, There are interesting opportunities to invest in new commercial aircraft but to me the key criteria will usually be residual value, driven foremost by which aircraft do you believe will have sufficient users to create a strong secondary market in the long run. There are also good opportunities to invest in subordinated debt positions secured by aircraft on lease to airlines that have relatively good credit. Jim Tussing, Partner, New York, Fulbright & Jaworski LLP Aviation (25%) and shipping (22%) respondents see investment in additional aircraft or ships as the best investment opportunity, but in each case that view is held more strongly among participants (aviation 34%; shipping 28%). Rail respondents, both participants and commentators, support infrastructure improvements (29% overall). Both aviation (22%) and rail (21%) see developing new markets as the next best investment, with that option being equal second choice in shipping (19%) with entry into a joint venture, alliance or pool. For shipping respondents (6%) and those from aviation (8%), acquiring more staff and skills is the lowest priority, whereas for rail respondents (5%) mergers and acquisitions is least important. Shipping respondents (8%) are also markedly less interested in technological improvements than those in aviation (10%) and rail (11%). Aviation participants (7%) also indicate a lower level of interest in this, while 16% of rail participants support it. Investing in new assets is attractive in all regions, especially the Middle East (32%), North America (22%) and Asia Pacific (21%). Respondents from Africa (30%) and Europe (22%) are most interested in developing new markets, which also attracts those from Asia Pacific (21%). For Central and South America respondents, infrastructure is the investment priority (25%), but those respondents show no interest in increasing their workforce or skills, as was the case in the Middle East (4%), Europe (6%) and North America (7%). Asia Pacific respondents show noticeably lower interest (3%) in technological improvements than those from all other regions. Norton Rose Fulbright March

10 Question 3 Which of the following countries/regions offer your business or operational sector the best opportunity for investment over the next two to five years? (Please select up to three options) Transport survey north america Commentary Opportunity is global and coming from all continents Anthony Foster, CEO, Marine Capital Ltd, Shipping respondent central and south america 8+9brazil This question was also included in our 2010 survey, which enables some comparison between the thinking at that time and now. China (30%) remains the preferred country, although it has fallen back from its 2010 popularity (43%). Western Europe is marginally more attractive (27%, compared with 26% in 2010), overtaking India (12% compared with 31% interest 2010). South Korea (2%) and Japan (3%) are viewed as least attractive, similar to 2010, but if the results for South Korea and Japan are ignored, the country or region of least interest is Australia and New Zealand (7%) compared with 17% in Overall interest in Brazil has fallen from 22% in 2010 to 16% today. By sector, shipping (36%, down from 58% in 2010) and aviation (33%) select China as the most important market, with South East Asia (23%) ranking second for aviation (down from 27% in 2010). North America remains the second priority for shipping (26%), just ahead of Western Europe (25%). For rail respondents, Western Europe (39%, up from 34% in 2010) is clearly the most important region (probably reflecting the high response from European rail respondents), followed by North America (25% up from 22% in 2010), and then the Middle East (22%). We did not differentiate between participants and commentators in 2010, but this year the overall greatest interest of participants 10 Norton Rose Fulbright March 2014

11 western europe sub-saharan africa eastern europe mena russia india china south korea south east asia japan australia and new zealand Section 01: Opportunities Key (15% in each case) was China and Western Europe, with commentators preferring China (15%) and North America (12%). Rail respondents appear to have caused this difference of opinion since rail participants showed little interest in China (6%) and, after Western Europe (22%), selected the Middle East (12%), while for rail commentators, North America (16%) was second in popularity. Most investment is going to mainly local markets. Australia and New Zealand draw highest interest from Asia Pacific respondents (7%), but none from Africa and low interest from Middle East (2%) and Europe respondents (3%). A low response from Asia Pacific respondents in respect of Russia (2%) brings down the overall popularity of Russia, although it maintains its 2010 level of interest (10%) for all respondents. Africa respondents are notably low on interest in India (1%) and Eastern Europe is of significant interest only to Europe (7%) and Middle East (6%) respondents. Interest from respondents in Central and South America is confined to just six of the fourteen suggested options (principally Brazil (36%) and the rest of Central and South America (36%)). Norton Rose Fulbright March

12 Transport survey Section 02 Global business climate In this section, we assess the changes required to funding terms and criteria, and how the challenge of high-capacity and high-speed assets is viewed. The three sectors polled operate internationally, managing challenges which affect them in different degrees, both by sector and by region. Responses to this part of the survey are of interest for the sectoral differences and similarities unveiled. 12 Norton Rose Fulbright March 2014

13 Question 4 Have you sought or offered funding in any form over the last year? Aviation Shipping Rail Yes: 44% No: 56% Yes: 57% No: 43% Yes: 41% No: 59% Aviation Shipping Rail What have been the most significant issues to address? (Please select up to three options) Pricing Liquidity/ availability of money prepayment triggers Increased security/ guarantee requirements Debtor quality Covenant package Creditor quality Leverage ratios Tenor Currency choices Repayment/ 30 per cent Section 02: Global business climate Commentary The results are broadly in line with the level of interest we have seen in the China/Hong Kong debt markets last year although noting that there was a significant uplift in activity in the last quarter of 2013 which bodes well for the prospects for We have seen pricing in the China shipping market reach a more balanced level over the last year but are beginning to see downward pressure on margin and arrangement fees as more banks come back into the shipping finance market. Davide Barzilai, Partner, Hong Kong, Norton Rose Fulbright Hong Kong The emergence of US private equity (PE) has greatly bolstered the otherwise insufficient funding sources for the shipping sector. While PE s pricing can be high, terms demanding and investment horizons narrow, its sophisticated familiarity with the US capital markets should provide a robust exit strategy for all involved (private owners, PE and secured lenders). Brad Berman, Partner, New York, Fulbright & Jaworski LLP Similar to 2012, 46% (2012: 45%) of respondents overall sought or offered funding over the previous twelve months. By sector, respondents in aviation (44%, and 55% of participants), in rail (41%, and 56% of participants) and in shipping (57%, and 74% of participants) sought or offered funding in This indicates the considerable extent of the continuing need for funding. In North America, the split between those who have sought or offered finance, and those who have not, is even, while elsewhere the balance is clearly in favour of those who have not, most markedly in Central and South America (31% have and 69% have not). What have been the most significant issues to address? The most pressing issue across all three sectors (54% of all respondents %) is pricing: aviation 25% (participants 27%); rail 26% (participants 27%); shipping 23% (participants 24%)). Of second greatest concern overall in 2012 (52%) was liquidity/availability of money, and this year it remains the second greatest concern (44%), although more so for commentators than participants in aviation (participants 19%; commentators 24%) and rail (participants 18%; commentators 20%). In shipping, this concern is greater among participants (20%) than commentators (15%). All other concerns are of relatively equal lower importance across all three sectors (especially for participants) although increased security/guarantee requirements are significant to 26% of respondents, but more so for commentators than participants in each sector. Regionally, pricing and liquidity/availability of money are the two greatest concerns everywhere except Central and South America, where, for 44% of respondents, increased guarantee/security requirements is the major concern. This is also of significant concern to Middle East respondents (20%) and of third concern in all other regions. These results vary considerably from 2012, when creditor quality was the biggest concern (Middle East 14% now 7%; North America 14% now 8%) as well as debtor quality (Europe 20% now 8%; Middle East 20% now 0%). The issue of lowest concern varies across the regions from leverage ratios (Africa 0%; Central and South America 0%; Middle East 0%), to currency choices (Europe 1%; North America 2%) and repayment/prepayment triggers (Asia Pacific 4%). Norton Rose Fulbright March

14 Transport survey Question 5 Which of the following could be most effective in making funding more readily available to your business or operational sector? (Please select up to three options) Aviation Shipping Rail 30 per cent A more beneficial view of assets * for risk weighting purposes Government guarantees Government supported soft loans Increased availability of asset * value or residual asset * value products More subsidies for investment in new technology Relaxation of stock exchange listing rules * Asset refers to aircraft, ships or other vessels (including rigs) and rolling stock vehicles (including locomotives and freight and passenger wagons). Tax incentives for borrowers relating to borrowings Tax incentives for lenders relating to loans (including finance leases) The establishment of specialist transport funding institutions None of the above. I am satisfied with my current access to funding Commentary I think what is needed is a more professional and beneficial long-term view of the industry itself and not an overly beneficial or overly negative view of the individual assets. Robert Beegle, President, Marcon International, Inc., Shipping respondent The billions of dollars a quarter being invested in shipping by US funds is creating a solid market for US based loans that is helping to fill the gap created when many of the traditional ship lenders scaled back their activities after the global financial crises. Brian Devine, Partner, New York, Fulbright & Jaworski LLP In our experience debt funding in aviation market in Asia is readily available for better credit airlines and lessors. This competition has driven down the pricing for many financiers and it is not surprising that the respondents would like to see more government supported financing to enable debt funding to a broader range of borrowers. Leigh Borrello, Partner, Sydney, Norton Rose Fulbright Australia Nearly 29% of respondents reported that they are satisfied with their current access to funding, in relatively similar proportions in each sector. Among the remaining respondents, there is a range of views, both by sector and by region. Of the options offered, overall, the most popular view (26%) is that a more beneficial view of assets for risk-weighting purposes is needed (aviation 15%; rail 10%; shipping 23%), although in rail the most popular choice is government guarantees (19%). In each sector these most popular views are held noticeably more strongly by participants (aviation 17%; rail 23%; shipping 26%). Aviation respondents are keen to see government supported soft loans (11%), government guarantees (11%), and the establishment of specialist transport funding institutions (13%). This latter option is also popular with rail (15%) and shipping (22%) respondents, although in each sector it is more popular with commentators (aviation 13%; rail 24%; shipping 15%) than with participants (aviation 10%; rail 12%; shipping 14%). Few support a relaxation of stock exchange rules (aviation 2%; rail 1%; shipping 1%). There is little interest among rail respondents in tax incentives for lenders (5%) but this is more popular with aviation (7%) and shipping (7%) respondents. That said, it is only in rail where participants are keener on this than commentators. Regionally, satisfaction with access to funding is the most popular response in three regions, in particular, North America (21%). The responses for Central and South America are spread relatively evenly over six of the options offered, representing the broadest range of views. In all other regions there is general agreement about the most effective changes. The need for a change in the view of asset values is most popular in Asia Pacific (16%) and Europe (17%), while support for specialist transport funding institutions comes mostly from Asia Pacific (14%), Europe (14%) and the Middle East (13%). The third most sought after change is for government guarantees, which is most popular in Africa (17%) and least popular in North America (9%). By far the least popular option is the need to relax stock exchange rules, with no support for this from the Middle East or Central and South America, and greatest support from Asia Pacific (only 3% of respondents). 14 Norton Rose Fulbright March 2014

15 Section 02: Global business climate Question 6 What will be the likely operational impact on your business or operational sector, of the introduction of new high-capacity or highspeed assets? (Please select one option) O O O Aviation Shipping Rail Commentary This will provide a positive response to the projected growth in passenger numbers and relieve pressure on existing infrastructure, while contributing to economic growth and stimulating the rail supply chain and the employment market. It all points to a buoyant rail sector, backed by Government and supported by available funding. Tom Johnson, Partner, London, It is not clear whether their operation will be sustainable The operators of these assets * will be able to dominate the routes where they operate They open the way to new opportunities for all in the sector They simply create overcapacity This is a natural and beneficial development * Asset refers to aircraft, ships or other vessels (including rigs) and rolling stock vehicles (including locomotives and freight and passenger wagons). The responses of shipping respondents to this question, show a marked variance from those in aviation and rail. Both aviation and rail promote the positive aspects of high-capacity or high-speed assets as opening the way to opportunities for all in the sector (aviation 25%; rail 42%) and as a natural and beneficial development (aviation 31%; rail 31%). However, the third most popular selected option from both aviation and rail respondents reveals doubt about the sustainability of the operation of these assets (aviation 19%; rail 13%). Significantly, aviation participants are noticeably more cautious in their view of the impact of these assets, compared with aviation commentators, while the most positive views come from rail participants (42% say these assets open the way to new opportunities). Shipping respondents are rather more negative in their outlook. Almost 30% (33% of participants) see these assets as simply creating overcapacity (a view shared by just 11% of aviation respondents and 6% in rail). A significant proportion of shipping respondents (22% 19% of participants) also express doubt about the sustainability of the operation of these assets, although a similar proportion (23% 23% of participants) regard the impact of these assets as a natural and beneficial development. Only 16% feel that they open the way to new opportunities for all in the sector. Central and South America (38%), Europe (29%) and the Middle East (28%) are the three regions which believe most strongly that high-capacity or high-speed assets will unleash new opportunities for all in the sector. Meanwhile, Africa (36%), Asia Pacific (29%) and North America (31%) believe these assets represent a natural and beneficial development. This is also the second most popular view among Europe respondents (26%). Few believe that the operators of these assets will dominate the routes where they operate (Africa 8%; Central and South America 0%; Europe 8%; Middle East 8%; North America 9%). Also of relatively low interest is the view that these assets simply create overcapacity, other than in Europe (18%); the Middle East (20%) and North America (15%). These views are outweighed by doubt about the sustainability of the operation of these assets (Asia Pacific 21%; Central and South America 38%; Middle East 24%; North America 22%). Norton Rose Fulbright March

16 Transport survey Section 03 Shape of the world to come All three sectors predict that major changes in those engaged in their markets will be driven by existing participants and that, in response to a question that we first asked in 2010, all the business indicators we tested will rise, a view held somewhat more confidently than in The key influence affecting choice of fuel was clear for all sectors, but responses varied widely on the challenges to operational efficiency. This reflects the different factors relevant to each sector, but all were concerned about the availability of suitably qualified people in future. This raises a significant issue. 16 Norton Rose Fulbright March 2014

17 Section 03: Shape of the world to come Question 7 What will be the most significant change in the participants in the sector most relevant to you over the next five years? (Please select one option) O O O Aviation Shipping Rail Increased joint venture/alliance/pooling activity More new start-ups by people new to the sector More new start-ups as subsidiaries of existing participants in the sector More newly privatised operators New funding sources Operators will become more specialised The larger participants will become more dominant The withdrawal of established participants 9 8 Commentary The strategies are clearly that the dominant operators will create so much low capex- financed and opex-capable capacity that all other operators will be driven to the wall. Carl Martell Wild II, Managing Director, Applecross Partners Inc., Aviation and shipping respondent A clear trend that we have seen develop in the shipping industry since our first survey, is an increase in the number of participants entering in to joint ventures and alliances. These have tended to be operationally driven and made between parties in the same, or very similar, businesses. Possibly the best examples of this are the P3 Network and G6 Alliance established by the world s major container lines. However, due to the recent economic upheaval that we have all experienced, we are seeing joint ventures between financiers/ investors and ship owners/ship operators in numbers never before witnessed. We have seen private equity providers such as Oaktree, Apollo and Blackstone openly enter in to shipping joint ventures in just about every sector of the industry. Whilst debt finance remains difficult to source this is likely to continue. Harry Theochari, Head of Transport, London, Norton Rose Fulbright Respondents from all three sectors agree that existing larger participants will become more dominant (aviation 26% participants 28%; rail 23% participants 20%; shipping 24% participants 21%), although this view is influenced by a markedly stronger view in this respect among rail and shipping commentators than participants. The second most significant change (and the strongest view expressed by commentators overall) is expected to be increased joint venture/alliance/ pool activity (aviation 23%; rail 21%; shipping 23%). For aviation and rail respondents, these two options are distinctly more popular than all the others. For shipping respondents these two options are followed quite closely by the view that new funding sources will provide new participants (22%, participants 25%). That view is shared reasonably strongly by aviation participants (14%). On the low side, both aviation (6%) and rail (3%) feel that the withdrawal of established participants is the least likely change to occur, while shipping respondents feel that this change is more likely (6%) than the arrival of newly privatised operators (3%) or more new start-ups as subsidiaries of existing participants in the sector (3%). The latter two options are also viewed as fairly weak possibilities among aviation respondents (6% and 6%) but slightly stronger among rail respondents (13% and 9%). Three regions (Africa 35%; Asia Pacific 28%; Central and South America 25%) see increased joint venture/alliance/pool activity as the most likely change. In Europe (27%) and North America (27%) the strongest view is that larger participants will become more dominant, whereas in the Middle East, 32% anticipate that operations will become more specialised. There is little support for the view that established participants will withdraw (Asia Pacific 2%; Europe 5%; Middle East 0%; North America 4%) or that there will be more privatised operators (Africa 4%; North America 4%). No more than two regions agree on what the least likely option will be. No respondents in the Middle East felt there would be start-ups in their sector and none in Central and South America felt new participants would come from new funding sources. Norton Rose Fulbright March

18 Transport survey Question 8 What is the greatest challenge to the future efficiency of operations in your business or operational sector? (Please select one option) O O O Aviation Shipping Rail Commentary New regulatory requirements force lenders to streamline their activities meaning more and more focus on larger corporates. SME type of customers will be squeezed and need to merge or grow to get to tier one status. Ulf Andersson, Head of Credit Shipping, Offshore & Oil Services, Nordea, Shipping respondent Without doubt, Africa s greatest challenge in the Transport sector is the construction and careful maintenance of suitable infrastructure: roads, rail links, bridges, harbours and airports. Poor infrastructure translates to poor transport efficiencies. Andrew Robinson, Director, Durban, Norton Rose Fulbright South Africa Emissions controls Fuel availability and cost General regulatory controls Inadequate infrastructure Intermodal or logistical inefficiencies Lack of funding Lack of suitably qualified people Supply and demand imbalances (e.g. overcapacity) It is interesting to note that despite widespread concern about overcapacity there has been a steep rise in interest in the construction of new vessels over the last 12 months, particularly in the dry sector. It would seem that several large players in the market are counting on an increase in demand by the time these vessels are delivered in 2015/2016. Marie Kelly, Partner, Athens, Norton Rose Fulbright Greece In response to this question, the views of the three sectors diverge considerably, while the views within each sector are reasonably clear about the greatest and least challenges they face. Within aviation, fuel availability and cost (27%) cause the greatest concern, followed some way behind by lack of suitably qualified people (16% although this is of more concern to commentators (17%) than participants (13%)). Of least concern is intermodal or logistical inefficiencies (4%). Aviation participants indicated a range of similarly ranked concerns: general regulatory controls, inadequate infrastructure, lack of suitably qualified people, and supply and demand imbalances. The greatest concern for rail respondents is inadequate infrastructure (27% participants 31%) with, again, the lack of suitably qualified people (21%) in second place, but again, this was of more concern to commentators (29%) than participants (13%). Emissions controls worry rail respondents least (1%), and fuel availability and cost (6%) is their next lowest concern. The single biggest worry for shipping respondents is supply and demand imbalances (e.g. overcapacity) (36% participants 44%) with no other issue coming close by way of concern. Of relatively equal low concern for shipping respondents are intermodal or logistical inefficiencies (7%), emissions controls (6%) and inadequate infrastructure (7%). The lack of suitably qualified people is, again, a significantly greater concern for commentators (17%) than participants (10%). By region, the sources of concern vary widely. The most significant challenge is variously the lack of suitably qualified people (Asia Pacific 21%; Middle East 28%; North America 21%), inadequate infrastructure (Central and South America 50%) and general regulatory controls (Africa 22%). In Europe the greatest challenge is seen as supply and demand imbalances (22%), which is the second greatest challenge for North America respondents (20%), and of no concern to those in the Middle East (0%). Somewhat surprisingly, emissions controls are of relatively low concern (Africa 2%; Asia Pacific 3%; Central and South America 6%; Europe 5%; Middle East 4%; North America 7%). 18 Norton Rose Fulbright March 2014

19 Section 03: Shape of the world to come Question 9 What do you believe will happen over the next five years in the region(s) in which you operate? This is another question which we have asked in a previous survey, in The data is not perfectly comparable due to a change in how we have described the regions since 2010, but the discrepancies are very small, reflecting the amalgamation of results for Asia and Australasia under Asia Pacific, and the movement of North Africa countries from a Middle East and North Africa category to one for all Africa. Commentary In Australia over the next five years we expect a significant increase in investment in infrastructure, much of it focused on the transport sector and in particular in the passenger and freight rail sectors many government tenders are coming online for significant rail expansion projects and significant rolling stock procurement programs are already or will be soon underway. Adrian Ahern, Partner, Sydney, Norton Rose Fulbright Australia For sure, the North American rail industry is one that will be exciting to watch over the next few years: revenues have increased as new markets have emerged, in particular, the carriage of crude oil which reached volumes unforeseeable a few years ago. This new demand and the challenges it poses to the existing equipment and infrastructure, as well as the profitability it brings, should favour long term investments at a rate rarely seen before in this area. Richard Desgagnes, Partner, Montreal, Norton Rose Fulbright Canada Fares/freights Rise Stay the same Fall Aviation Shipping Rail 61% 26% 13% 66% 25% 8% 75% 20% 5% While the majority (66% %) of all respondents continue to expect fares/freights to rise, a growing proportion (24% %) expect them to stay the same over the next five years. The proportion predicting a fall (10% %) remains static. As in 2010, rail is the sector which most expects a rise in fares/ freights (75% %) with a reduced proportion (5% %) expecting a fall. In aviation, a smaller 61% ( %) expect a rise, with a larger 13% ( %) expecting a fall. In shipping, 66% expect a rise, the same as in 2010, but the proportion of those predicting a fall has reduced noticeably (8% %). In both aviation and rail, commentators are more expectant of a rise in fares/freights than participants, whereas the reverse is true in shipping. North America remains the region with the greatest, albeit reduced, expectation of a rise (76% %). The greatest shift in opinion comes from the Middle East where a larger proportion of respondents expect a rise in fares/freights (58% %) and no one predicts a fall, down from 32% in Africa opinion has strengthened in anticipation of a rise (70% %) and there is a reduction in the proportion of those expecting w w w w w w Africa Asia Pacific Central and South America Europe Middle East North America a fall (14% %). Only in Central and South America is there an increased expectation of a fall in fares/freights (19% %), while the picture in Europe is of a significant strengthening of the view that fares/freights will stay the same (28% %). Norton Rose Fulbright March

20 Transport survey Investment in infrastructure Rise Stay the same Fall Aviation Shipping Rail 52% 36% 12% 62% 31% 7% 60% 31% 9% w w w w w w Africa Asia Pacific Central and South America Europe Middle East North America As is apparent from the trends section of this survey, investment in infrastructure is seen by all sectors as the best help that governments can give these sectors. Compared to 2010, there is noticeably greater optimism overall that more money will be found for infrastructure investment (57% %) and a much smaller proportion predict a fall in such investment (10% %). Among the sectors, shipping is increasingly the most optimistic in predicting a rise in infrastructure investment (62% %), but belief in this view in rail has grown (60% %). Strikingly, the proportion of rail respondents predicting infrastructure investment will fall has dropped sharply (9% %). Aviation remains relatively uncertain in respect of infrastructure investment. This time it is the relative views of rail participants and commentators which are distinct from the comparative harmony of views in aviation and shipping. Rail participants (64%) are clearly more strongly of the view that spending on infrastructure will rise, than rail commentators (51%). Regionally, the Middle East has the greatest, albeit smaller, proportion who predict a rise in investment (83% %), with Central and South America second strongest in this view (69% 2010 Asia Pacific 63%). In 2010 Central and South America was the least optimistic region, with 42% there predicting a fall in investment, and so it remained in 2013, but at a much reduced level of 12%. Passenger numbers / freight volumes Rise Stay the same Fall Aviation Shipping Rail 81% 16% 3% 77% 19% 4% 85% 14% w w88+12+w w w w Africa Asia Pacific Central and South America Europe Middle East North America The view overall that passenger numbers/freight volume will increase is now held by 82% of respondents ( %), with just 3% predicting a fall ( %). Previously, aviation was the most confident ( %, now 81%), but rail has leapt ahead, with 85% expressing optimism (shipping 77%). That numbers and volume might fall is a view held most strongly by shipping respondents, but it is held by just 4% of them ( %) with aviation at 2% and rail at 1%. Rail, in particular, is clearly gaining positive momentum since our 2009 survey found 56% of rail respondents believed that passenger numbers would fall by up to 5%. Only in shipping is the proportion of participants predicting a rise (76%) smaller than the proportion of commentators (82%) of that view. Geographically, the Middle East remains the most optimistic region with an increased proportion predicting a rise (92% %), while Central and South America is most strongly predicting a fall (13% 2010 Europe 22%). The rising confidence in the Middle East is reflected in all regions, most notably Asia Pacific (85% rise; 1% fall % rise; 18% fall) and pessimism in Europe has now shrunk to just 2% of respondents. In North America, the shift has been mostly from predicting a fall (3% %) to those predicting numbers and volume will stay the same (17% %). 20 Norton Rose Fulbright March 2014

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