Political Campaigning & Policy Implementation: Evidence from US Presidential Elections. Preliminary Draft

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Political Campaigning & Policy Implementation: Evidence from US Presidential Elections. Preliminary Draft"

Transcription

1 Political Campaigning & Policy Implementation: Evidence from US Presidential Elections Ioanna Grypari Max Planck Institute, Bonn Grigorios Siourounis Panteion University Preliminary Draft February 14, 2014 Abstract This paper empirically establishes the relationship between pre-election competition and post-election policy making, in US Presidential elections from 1952 till Specifically, we account for the effect of political campaigning, through issue emphasis, on bills proposed and passed during a Presidency. First, we construct a campaign effect variable by isolating the fraction of post-election bill proposals that is solely due to campaign promises. We do so by exploiting the observed difference in behavior between the winning and losing party of the Presidential election. Second, we build a dynamic structural model to allow for the endogeneity of bill proposals to campaign promises and vice versa. Using data on bills from the Policy Agendas Project and survey data from the American National Election studies, as well as our constructed variables from the first part of the paper, we estimate the model. We are thus able quantify the effects of political campaigning on bills passed into law, through agenda priorities. Preliminary findings show that campaign effects dissipate or persist depending on the party that controls the Congress, the term of the President and on whether an issue was high on the agenda for both parties. We thank Martin Hellwig, Olga Gorelkina, workshop participants at MPI Bonn and Panteion University, and Georg Treuter for excellent research assistance. 1

2 1 Introduction This paper quantifies the effect of pre-election political competition on policy changes in the US from 1952 till 2008, in the context of Presidential elections. Specifically, the channel we focus on is that of agenda priorities. During the campaign, Presidential candidates spend varying amounts of time on different issues (to be referred to as issue emphasis from now on), thus promising the voters a specific hierarchy of the agenda if they are to come into office. 1 After the election, the two parties allocate their time across issues by proposing bills (from now on issue effort). First we isolate empirically the campaign part of issue effort, i.e. the fraction of bills proposed due to politicians sticking with their campaign issue emphasis. We then build and estimate a dynamic structural model that allows us to control for the endogeneity of pre- to post- election behavior. Our results allow us to quantify the effect of campaign issue emphasis on actual bills passed into law. Although there is a large theoretical literature on the effects of electoral competition on economic outcomes, this relationship is yet to be established empirically, especially in terms of actual policy changes. 2 The contribution of this paper is three-fold. First, by focusing on agenda priorities, we are able to isolate a force in the legislative process that is tractable. 3 Second, the model we provide is flexible because of the simplifying parameterizations we use, but still captures the basic dynamics of the political process, allowing it to be used in different settings. Lastly, we are able to measure 1. whether there are any campaign effects persisting after the elections and 2. how these vary depending on campaigns, Congress control and the Presidential term. Thus, shedding more light on the way in which the existence of pre-election competition affects observed outcomes. We start by empirically examining the fraction of issue effort that is due to campaign promises. We run a simple regression of bills proposed on an issue on campaign issue 1 The link between actual policy promises and policy making although clearly a very relevant one is harder to measure as 1. there is little data on policy promises and 2. the data that exists shows a large variation in the perceived positions of a Presidential candidate in the electorate. However, although the focus on the paper is on the effect of agenda priorities on policy changes, we do address the issue of exact policy promises in the last section of the paper. 2 There is, however, an empirical literature on the effect of the party of the President on economic outcomes (not focusing on campaigns), as well as a strand on the effects of campaign issue emphasis on government expenditures (an approximation to policy changes). 3 To voters as well. 2

3 emphasis controlling for year, issue and party fixed effects and observe that the winning and losing parties of the Presidential election behave differently. For the Presidential party there is a statistically and economically significant positive correlation between issue emphasis and issue effort whereas the effect is insignificant for the opposition. Using this difference we construct a variable that isolates the fraction of bills on an issue that are due to the Presidential party sticking with their agenda priorities as set in the campaign (from now on the campaign effect estimates). Second, we build a dynamic structural model that allows us to account for 1. the potential reverse causality between bill proposals and campaign promises as well as 2. the dependence of bills to future election motives. By parameterizing legislative bargaining we are able to significantly simplify the political process and ultimately reduce the infinite horizon model to a dynamic programming problem with two state variables. Using data on bills, voting and our campaign effect estimates variables from the first part of the paper, we estimate the model to match predicted moments. Preliminary findings indicate that pre-election competition has varying effects on bills passed into law depending on whether the issue is major or minor in the previous election. In particular, campaign effects dissipate, or rather, are not identifiable in issues that were highly emphasized from both parties, potentially indicating that these are major state of the world issues and would have been addressed regardless. For issues that were highly campaigned on by the winning party, campaign effects depend on the party that holds power over the Senate and House of Representatives, but are in several cases (i.e. above some threshold level of Congress control ) persistent. As expected campaigns have a smaller effect on policy on years where the President is in his second term But may still exist. 5 Although we can identify the effects of political competition on policy changes through agenda priorities, we are not able to examine whether campaign policy promises are kept as there is no data on that. However, we examine the difference between the position of the original post-campaign bill proposal on an issue and the bill that was actually passed into law. 3

4 2 Data and Campaign Effects Estimates In this section, we identify the part of the legislative process that is due to campaign promises. Data Campaigns vary in several dimensions, two relevant ones for this paper are the positions and issue emphasis of candidates; the latter referring to the salience of different issues in the campaign. We classify issues according to the Policy Agendas Project of the University of Texas. The handbook contains 21 major topics and a varying number of subtopics for each. It is the same one used for the bills data (see below), and thus covers all possible issues besides campaign oratory remarks which we measure separately. The issue emphasis data is taken from Grypari (2014) and is constructed by counting the number of words in a particular issue in the party nominating convention acceptance speeches given by Presidential candidates. The speeches are thought of us representative of the agenda of the candidate and have the benefit of being the largest campaign event (by number of viewers) after the debates. 6 Data on the positions of Presidential candidates is extracted from the American National Election Studies data-set and it includes the perceived positions of voters by demographic group in the population on several of the major topics. We do not have data on candidates positions in all 21 major categories, but this is not essential in this part of the paper as we are focusing on agenda priorities rather than exact positions. 7 In order to quantify the legislative process we use data on bills proposed in Congress from 1952 till 2008 through the Policy Agendas Project. Each data point 8 contains all relevant data for a particular bill: information on the Congress member that proposed it, date of proposal, the chamber in which it originated, the issue it referred to, whether it was signed into law, its NOMINATE score, 9 etc. We proxy post-election issue effort by the 6 Debates cannot be used as a source of data on agenda/issue emphasis as the issues discussed are at least partly determined by the moderator. 7 We address the issue of missing data in terms of campaign promises in section 4 of the paper. 8 About 410,000 in total. 9 A scale created by Poole and Rosenthal that summarizes the position of a bill in a two-dimensional 4

5 fraction of bills on a specific issue and we construct this measure separately for each of the four years after the election. 10 As bills are not allowed to be proposed by the President himself and must originate from a member of the congress we use the bills from the President s party as representative of his own preferences, but we take this into consideration in our estimation. Campaign Effects In order to account for the effect of pre-election competition on policy making, we must take into consideration the different forces present in the legislative process. Besides the willingness to pass policy on the issues that were emphasized during a campaign, once elected the winning party is also facing their own party preferences, special interest groups, changes in the state of the world, 11 and future election considerations. In this section of the paper, we identify the fraction of bills proposed in each issue that is solely due to campaign promises. Now, issue emphasis may be correlated with all of the above, as election motives are not necessarily the only incentives present when setting agenda priorities during the campaign. Party preferences for example will affect both the campaign but also bill proposals post-election, 12 therefore the estimates in this section are meant to be interpreted not as exogenous to the rest of the political process, but rather as isolating campaign effects. To construct them, we use the fact the winning and losing party of an election behave differently post-election in terms of the relationship between between campaigning and policy priorities. We regress issue effort (fraction of bill proposals on issue) on issue emphasis (campaign time on issue), controlling for party, year and issue fixed effects. 13 We find that for the winning party there is a significant and positive correlation between campaign and post-election priorities (the coefficient is 0.63, significant at the 5% level), whereas the correlation is insignificant for the losing party. 14 We vary the specification by looking at scale. 10 Noting the different incentives in play during each year of the Presidency. 11 Drawing attention to a potentially different set of issues. 12 Thus, the need of a structural model. 13 Using the Wild cluster-bootstrap percentile-t procedure that allows double clustering in issues and years. 14 The latter is somewhat surprising. Although, the Presidential candidate of the losing party is no longer 5

6 bills proposed at different years of the Presidency and find these results robust. We construct the campaign effects issue effort variable (for the winning party) simply by multiplying issue effort with the coefficient of the regression. By creating this variable, we are able to significantly simplify the model as we have isolated the campaign part of issue effort and can summarize the rest of the forces in play (which are not of interest to us) by a simple parameter. 3 Model In this section, we present a simple two stage model that is repeated infinitely. For now, we drop the subscript for time, t, from all notation. Agents There are two politicians j {r, d}, two parties J {R, D} and a continuum of voters i [0, 1]. Each voter belongs to a (demographic) group g G where π g is the fraction of voters in g, g π g = 1. For now, we assume that politicians and their parties are identical and thus drop J. Actions Voters vote for one of the two politicians, v ig {r, d}. There are n issues, n N, each politician has an exogenous position on each of these issues, p j n [ 1, 1] and there is a status quo position p 0 n [ 1, 1]. Politicians campaign by spending time on different issues in the campaign, e j n s.t. n ej n = 1, which we call issue emphasis. Politicians also decide how to allocate their time across issues after the election, b j n s.t. n bj n = 1, we call this issue effort and denote it by b as it will be proxied by bill proposals. There is an exogenous function λ n ( ) that summarizes the legislative bargaining process. With p n being the policy that gets implemented at the end of the Presidency we have: ( p n = λ n b j n, b j n, p j n, p j n, p 0 ) n (1) Timing in the picture during the legislative process party preferences were still present when setting the agenda during the campaign. 6

7 At time t, a two stage period begins. Stage 1: Politicians campaign by setting {e j n} jn and voters vote {v ig } ig. Stage 2: The majority winner j takes office, both politicians allocate effort across issues {b j n} jn and policy positions change to {p n } according to (1). Payoffs Politicians care about the probability of winning elections and their own preferred positions, p j n. Voters utility depends on the salience of different issues as determined by issue emphasis in this and the previous campaign. 4 Empirical Testing In this section, we use a GMM estimator to estimate the model from section 3, using bill proposals data from the Policy Agendas Project, the estimates on campaign effects from section 2 and survey answers from the National Election Studies data set. 15 The predicted moments to match are: 1. the fraction of bills that are passed into law on each issue, 2. the fraction of seats of both parties in the Senate and House of Representatives, 3. the average party position on issues (using NOMINATE scores of party memebers), 4. ultimate re-election probability of President (whether in first or second term and Presidential approval rate at the end of this term). Preliminary findings indicate that pre-election competition has varying effects on bills passed into law depending on whether the issue is major or minor in the previous election. In particular, campaign effects dissipate, or rather, are not identifiable in issues that were highly emphasized from both parties, potentially indicating that these are major state of the world issues and would have been addressed regardless. For issues that were highly 15 For an exact description of the different data-sets please refer to the previous sections. 7

8 campaigned on by the winning party, campaign effects depend on the party that holds power over the Senate and House of Representatives, but are in several cases (i.e. above some threshold level of Congress control ) persistent. As expected campaigns have a smaller effect on policy on years where the President is in his second term. 8

Issue Emphasis & Opportunistic Redistribution in U.S. Presidential Elections

Issue Emphasis & Opportunistic Redistribution in U.S. Presidential Elections Issue Emphasis & Opportunistic Redistribution in U.S. Presidential Elections Ioanna Grypari University of Minnesota PRELIMINARY & INCOMPLETE June 12, 2010 Abstract This paper examines how non-economic

More information

closed primary A primary in which only party members can vote to choose that party's candidates.

closed primary A primary in which only party members can vote to choose that party's candidates. Australian ballot A secret ballot that is prepared, distributed, and counted by government officials at public expense; used by all states in the United States since 1888. campaign strategy The comprehensive

More information

Does the presidential candidate with the most votes always win?

Does the presidential candidate with the most votes always win? Does the presidential candidate with the most votes always win? Not always. In fact, there have been four presidential elections in which the winner did not receive a majority of the popular vote. The

More information

AP Gov Summer Homework. The US Constitution

AP Gov Summer Homework. The US Constitution AP Gov Summer Homework Name: The US Constitution Directions: Read the US Constitution and complete the following questions directly on this handout. Have this assignment completed for the first day of

More information

WOMEN IN POLITICS: THE CASE OF INDIA. Lakshmi Iyer (Harvard Business School) Harvard South Asia Institute Webinar, May 2014

WOMEN IN POLITICS: THE CASE OF INDIA. Lakshmi Iyer (Harvard Business School) Harvard South Asia Institute Webinar, May 2014 WOMEN IN POLITICS: THE CASE OF INDIA Lakshmi Iyer (Harvard Business School) Harvard South Asia Institute Webinar, May 2014 TWO BIG QUESTIONS Women lag behind men on many metrics across the world (survival,

More information

AP UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS 2014 SCORING GUIDELINES

AP UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS 2014 SCORING GUIDELINES AP UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS 2014 SCORING GUIDELINES Question 2 6 points Part (a): 1 point One point is earned for an accurate identification of how one of the following amendments affected

More information

Type of Electoral System: Proportional Representation System Name: Weighted Vote (WV) How the Weighted Vote Electoral System works:

Type of Electoral System: Proportional Representation System Name: Weighted Vote (WV) How the Weighted Vote Electoral System works: John Stillich Request to the Ontario Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform The following is respectfully submitted for consideration as an alternative electoral system model for Ontario. Type of Electoral

More information

Voters to Washington in 2012: What s the Plan? An analysis of the 2012 Presidential elections

Voters to Washington in 2012: What s the Plan? An analysis of the 2012 Presidential elections Voters to Washington in 2012: What s the Plan? An analysis of the 2012 Presidential elections (Note: This analysis is based on a combination of the media Exit Poll and a New Models Post-Election survey

More information

AP United States Government and Politics 2011 Scoring Guidelines

AP United States Government and Politics 2011 Scoring Guidelines AP United States Government and Politics 2011 Scoring Guidelines The College Board The College Board is a not-for-profit membership association whose mission is to connect students to college success and

More information

House of Representatives

House of Representatives House of Representatives General Assembly File No. 221 January Session, 2009 House Bill No. 6437 House of Representatives, March 25, 2009 The Committee on Government Administration and Elections reported

More information

Measuring Knowledge and Attitudes about the Electoral College ANES Proposal

Measuring Knowledge and Attitudes about the Electoral College ANES Proposal Measuring Knowledge and Attitudes about the Electoral College ANES Proposal Shaun Bowler, University of California, Riverside Todd Donovan, Western Washington University Jeffrey Karp, University of Exeter,

More information

An Empirical Examination of Iowa Voter Registration Statistics

An Empirical Examination of Iowa Voter Registration Statistics An Empirical Examination of Iowa Voter Registration Statistics Timothy M. Hagle Department of Political Science The University of Iowa Abstract In this short paper I take a look at Iowa s voter registration

More information

The colors of the U.S. flag are. The flag is composed of

The colors of the U.S. flag are. The flag is composed of 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Tell the class what you know about the American flag. The American flag is called The colors of the U.S. flag are. The flag is composed of Look at the document below. What

More information

Rhetoric in Legislative Bargaining with Asymmetric Information

Rhetoric in Legislative Bargaining with Asymmetric Information Rhetoric in Legislative Bargaining with Asymmetric Information Ying Chen, Arizona State University Hülya Eraslan, Johns Hopkins University extended abstract Legislative policy-making typically involves

More information

The Economists Voice

The Economists Voice The Economists Voice Volume 1, Issue 2 2004 Article 1 Experimental Political Betting Markets and the 2004 Election Justin Wolfers Eric Zitzewitz Wharton. U.Penn Stanford GSB Copyright c 2004 by the authors.

More information

Bundling in Cable Television: A Pedagogical Note With a Policy Option. Keith Brown and Peter J. Alexander Federal Communications Commission, USA

Bundling in Cable Television: A Pedagogical Note With a Policy Option. Keith Brown and Peter J. Alexander Federal Communications Commission, USA K. Bundling Brown and in Cable P. J. Alexander Television Bundling in Cable Television: A Pedagogical Note With a Policy Option Keith Brown and Peter J. Alexander Federal Communications Commission, USA

More information

Twitter and the Senatorial Race

Twitter and the Senatorial Race Twitter and the Senatorial Race Anisa Holmes Brown University December 20, 2014 Abstract This study examines the causal link between U.S. Senatorial Candidates use of Twitter and subsequent voteshare in

More information

What do Young Adults Know about Politics? Evidence from a National Survey Conducted After the 2012 Election

What do Young Adults Know about Politics? Evidence from a National Survey Conducted After the 2012 Election What do Young Adults Know about Politics? Evidence from a National Survey Conducted After the 2012 Election CIRCLE Staff with support from the Spencer Foundation January 2013 Many people assume that young

More information

Am I Decisive? Handout for Government 317, Cornell University, Fall 2003. Walter Mebane

Am I Decisive? Handout for Government 317, Cornell University, Fall 2003. Walter Mebane Am I Decisive? Handout for Government 317, Cornell University, Fall 2003 Walter Mebane I compute the probability that one s vote is decisive in a maority-rule election between two candidates. Here, a decisive

More information

Interest Group Coalitions and Information Transmission

Interest Group Coalitions and Information Transmission Interest Group Coalitions and Information Transmission Kasia Hebda khebda@princeton.edu September 14, 2011 Abstract Though researchers of interest group behavior consistently note that groups often form

More information

AP UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS 2010 SCORING GUIDELINES

AP UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS 2010 SCORING GUIDELINES AP UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS 2010 SCORING GUIDELINES Question 3 6 points Part (a): 1 point One point is earned for identifying one specific trend evident in the figure: Percentage of House

More information

IPCE Institute for Policy and Civic Engagement http://www.uic.edu/cuppa/ipce/

IPCE Institute for Policy and Civic Engagement http://www.uic.edu/cuppa/ipce/ IPCE Institute for Policy and Civic Engagement http://www.uic.edu/cuppa/ipce/ TRANSPARENCY, CIVIC ENGAGEMENT, AND TECHNOLOGY USE IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES: FINDINGS FROM A NATIONAL SURVEY April 2011

More information

Characteristics of Public Budgets in 5 Latin American Countries

Characteristics of Public Budgets in 5 Latin American Countries Characteristics of Public Budgets in 5 Latin American Countries The Latin American Network for Legislative Transparency is a network of civil society organizations in Latin America that promote transparency,

More information

5. Which normally describes the political party system in the United States? 1. A political party supports this during an election: A.

5. Which normally describes the political party system in the United States? 1. A political party supports this during an election: A. 1. A political party supports this during an election: A. Public Policy B. Platform C. Compromise D. Third Party 2. Third parties usually impact government by: A. Electing large numbers of politicians

More information

The Electoral Process

The Electoral Process Barack and Michelle Obama at the Democratic National Convention in 2004 Narrowing the Field It s Election Time! Candidates for the larger political parties are chosen at party meetings called conventions.

More information

US History, October 14

US History, October 14 US History, October 14 Entry Task: Write down your FAVORITE cartoon character. We will narrow it down to 2 or 3 Announcements How many people will be gone tomorrow? Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act 2010 CONSTITUTION

More information

U.S. Presidential Election Forecasts: Through the Lense of Linear Algebra. Cassia S. Wagner

U.S. Presidential Election Forecasts: Through the Lense of Linear Algebra. Cassia S. Wagner U.S. Presidential Election Forecasts: Through the Lense of Linear Algebra Cassia S. Wagner May 11, 2012 Abstract Markov Chains use multiplication of a transformation matrix and a probability vector to

More information

U.S. Government and Politics August Assignment. The U.S. Constitution Study Guide

U.S. Government and Politics August Assignment. The U.S. Constitution Study Guide U.S. Government and Politics August Assignment Read the U.S. Constitution. Write the answers directly on the handout. Be prepared to glue the completed assignment into your class notebook the first week

More information

Voters to Washington in 2010: Put Out the Fire! An analysis of the 2010 midterm elections

Voters to Washington in 2010: Put Out the Fire! An analysis of the 2010 midterm elections Voters to Washington in 2010: Put Out the Fire! An analysis of the 2010 midterm elections (Note: This analysis is based on a combination of the news media Exit Poll of 17,504 House voters, and a New Models

More information

Flexible Election Timing and International Conflict Online Appendix International Studies Quarterly

Flexible Election Timing and International Conflict Online Appendix International Studies Quarterly Flexible Election Timing and International Conflict Online Appendix International Studies Quarterly Laron K. Williams Department of Political Science University of Missouri williamslaro@missouri.edu Overview

More information

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

More information

An Extension of the CHAID Tree-based Segmentation Algorithm to Multiple Dependent Variables

An Extension of the CHAID Tree-based Segmentation Algorithm to Multiple Dependent Variables An Extension of the CHAID Tree-based Segmentation Algorithm to Multiple Dependent Variables Jay Magidson 1 and Jeroen K. Vermunt 2 1 Statistical Innovations Inc., 375 Concord Avenue, Belmont, MA 02478,

More information

FRQ PACKET. In this packet are all of the FRQs that the College Board has asked during the May AP Government & Politics Exam.

FRQ PACKET. In this packet are all of the FRQs that the College Board has asked during the May AP Government & Politics Exam. AP United States Government and Politics FRQ PACKET In this packet are all of the FRQs that the College Board has asked during the May AP Government & Politics Exam. There is also a table of contents on

More information

Jon A. Krosnick and LinChiat Chang, Ohio State University. April, 2001. Introduction

Jon A. Krosnick and LinChiat Chang, Ohio State University. April, 2001. Introduction A Comparison of the Random Digit Dialing Telephone Survey Methodology with Internet Survey Methodology as Implemented by Knowledge Networks and Harris Interactive Jon A. Krosnick and LinChiat Chang, Ohio

More information

CITY OF ELK GROVE CITY COUNCIL STAFF REPORT

CITY OF ELK GROVE CITY COUNCIL STAFF REPORT CITY OF ELK GROVE CITY COUNCIL STAFF REPORT AGENDA ITEM NO. 10.6 AGENDA TITLE: Consider options to present a measure for by district voting for council member seats at either the June primary or the November

More information

AP UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS 2015 SCORING GUIDELINES

AP UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS 2015 SCORING GUIDELINES AP UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS 2015 SCORING GUIDELINES Question 3 5 points Part (a): 1 point One point is earned for describing a reason that the framers chose the electoral college method to

More information

Chapter 8: Political Parties

Chapter 8: Political Parties Chapter 8: Political Parties Political Parties and their Functions Political party: an organization that sponsors candidates for public office under the organization s name True political parties select

More information

Prohibited for Section 527s, unless otherwise organized as a PAC. Prohibited for Section 527s, unless otherwise organized as a PAC.

Prohibited for Section 527s, unless otherwise organized as a PAC. Prohibited for Section 527s, unless otherwise organized as a PAC. Permissible Political Activities of PACs and Non-Profit Organizations Under Federal Campaign Finance and Tax Laws Prepared by Public Citizen s Congress Watch (December 18, 2002) Campaign Activity Federally

More information

Three Branches of Government

Three Branches of Government Lesson 2 PAGES 398 403 Explain the purpose of the Constitution. Compare the powers and functions of the three branches of government. separation of powers p. 400 legislative branch p. 400 executive branch

More information

The Electoral Process STEP BY STEP. the worksheet activity to the class. the answers with the class. (The PowerPoint works well for this.

The Electoral Process STEP BY STEP. the worksheet activity to the class. the answers with the class. (The PowerPoint works well for this. Teacher s Guide Time Needed: One class period Materials Needed: Student worksheets Projector Copy Instructions: Reading (2 pages; class set) Activity (3 pages; class set) The Electoral Process Learning

More information

DO VOTERS AFFECT OR ELECT POLICIES? EVIDENCE FROM THE U. S. HOUSE* DAVID S. LEE ENRICO MORETTI MATTHEW J. BUTLER

DO VOTERS AFFECT OR ELECT POLICIES? EVIDENCE FROM THE U. S. HOUSE* DAVID S. LEE ENRICO MORETTI MATTHEW J. BUTLER EVIDENCE FROM THE U. S. HOUSE* DAVID S. LEE ENRICO MORETTI MATTHEW J. BUTLER There are two fundamentally different views of the role of elections in policy formation. In one view, voters can affect candidates

More information

The Election Statutes of the Student Government of the College of Liberal Arts of Drew University

The Election Statutes of the Student Government of the College of Liberal Arts of Drew University The Election Statutes of the Student Government of the College of Liberal Arts of Drew University Index ARTICLE I: NAME.....3 ARTICLE II: THE ELECTIONS COMMITTEE...3 ARTICLE III: ELECTIONS.. 4 ARTICLE

More information

Types of Democracy. Types of Democracy

Types of Democracy. Types of Democracy Types of Democracy The democratic form of government is an institutional configuration that allows for popular participation through the electoral process. According to political scientist Robert Dahl,

More information

Myanmar 2015 General Elections Fact Sheet

Myanmar 2015 General Elections Fact Sheet Myanmar 2015 General Elections Fact Sheet International Foundation for Electoral Systems 1850 K Street, NW Fifth Floor Washington, DC 20006 www.ifes.org September 15, 2015 Table of Contents When will the

More information

The Mass Media. Journalism Has Undergone 4 stages of evolution

The Mass Media. Journalism Has Undergone 4 stages of evolution The Mass Media Journalism Has Undergone 4 stages of evolution 1. The Party Press - political parties publication of their own papers. Very biased showed only one side of the story Limited readership. 2.

More information

IRS ISSUES PROPOSED REGULATIONS DEFINING POLITICAL ACTIVITY BY 501(c)(4) ORGANIZATIONS

IRS ISSUES PROPOSED REGULATIONS DEFINING POLITICAL ACTIVITY BY 501(c)(4) ORGANIZATIONS IRS ISSUES PROPOSED REGULATIONS DEFINING POLITICAL ACTIVITY BY 501(c)(4) ORGANIZATIONS On November 29, 2013, the Internal Revenue Service issued proposed regulations addressing certain political or politically

More information

BANK OF MONTREAL HUMAN RESOURCES COMMITTEE CHARTER

BANK OF MONTREAL HUMAN RESOURCES COMMITTEE CHARTER Board approved August 23, 2016 BANK OF MONTREAL HUMAN RESOURCES COMMITTEE CHARTER The Committee is responsible for assisting the Board in fulfilling its oversight responsibilities for the appointment,

More information

3rd General Conference of the ECPR Standing Group on Parliaments

3rd General Conference of the ECPR Standing Group on Parliaments 3rd General Conference of the ECPR Standing Group on Parliaments Parliaments in Challenging Times Munich, 30 June - 2nd July 2016 Panel Proposal: Electoral Institutions and the European Parliament Panel

More information

Systems of Government: Parliamentarism and Presidentialism By: Jose Cheibub

Systems of Government: Parliamentarism and Presidentialism By: Jose Cheibub Systems of Government: Parliamentarism and Presidentialism By: Jose Cheibub Parliamentary and Presidential Democracies: Which One is Best? With the exception of the United States, where a system of separation

More information

Presidential Election Process Lapbook

Presidential Election Process Lapbook L-EPK Presidential Election Process Lapbook Designed for K-5 th Grade (separate lapbook for upper grades) Designed by Cyndi Kinney and Judy Trout of Knowledge Box Central Presidential Election Process

More information

U.S. Elections 2008 Quiz. U.S. Department of State Bureau of International Information Programs

U.S. Elections 2008 Quiz. U.S. Department of State Bureau of International Information Programs U.S. Elections 2008 Quiz U.S. Department of State Bureau of International Information Programs 1. Who is responsible for running U.S. presidential elections? A. The Federal Election Commission (FEC) B.

More information

The New American Electorate: Partisan, Sorted and Polarized

The New American Electorate: Partisan, Sorted and Polarized The New American Electorate: Partisan, Sorted and Polarized Major Characteristics of the Current Era of Electoral Competition Intense two-party competition for control of Congress and the White House Increasing

More information

Week Twenty-One: Political Parties

Week Twenty-One: Political Parties Weekly Focus: Comprehension Weekly Skill: Compare and Contrast Lesson Summary: This week students will be introduced to the new essential question Who creates change? We will begin discussing political

More information

SURVEY OF PENNSYLVANIANS ON THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

SURVEY OF PENNSYLVANIANS ON THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION The Morning Call/ Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion SURVEY OF PENNSYLVANIANS ON THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION KEY FINDINGS REPORT October 22, 2004 KEY FINDINGS: 1. The race for Pennsylvanian

More information

Indirect Presidential Influence, State-level Approval, and Voting in the U.S. Senate

Indirect Presidential Influence, State-level Approval, and Voting in the U.S. Senate Indirect Presidential Influence, State-level Approval, and Voting in the U.S. Senate Caitlin E. Dwyer dwyer077@umn.edu Department of Political Science University of Minnesota Sarah A. Treul 1 streul@unc.edu

More information

Two Stage Elections, Strategic Candidates, and Agenda Convergence

Two Stage Elections, Strategic Candidates, and Agenda Convergence Two Stage Elections, Strategic Candidates, and Agenda Convergence Kevin K. Banda The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill kbanda@email.unc.edu Thomas M. Carsey The University of North Carolina at

More information

Understanding and Influencing The Legislative Process

Understanding and Influencing The Legislative Process Understanding and Influencing The Legislative Process Table of Contents SGNA Legislative Platform... 3 Communicating with your Legislator Telephone Calls... 3 Writing a Letter or E-mail... 3 Social Media...

More information

Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization: Sensitivity Analysis

Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization: Sensitivity Analysis Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization: Sensitivity Analysis Jean Imbs London Business School and CEPR September 2003 Abstract This note contains sensitivity analyses for the results described

More information

Military Voting Update: A Bleak Picture in 2012

Military Voting Update: A Bleak Picture in 2012 Military Voting Update: A Bleak Picture in 2012 A Report by the Military Voter Protection Project and AMVETS Legal Clinic at Chapman University 1 The challenges faced by military voters are immense. As

More information

The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: The Romer-Romer Method on the Austrian case

The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: The Romer-Romer Method on the Austrian case The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: The Romer-Romer Method on the Austrian case By Atila Kilic (2012) Abstract In 2010, C. Romer and D. Romer developed a cutting-edge method to measure tax multipliers

More information

Case 1: Get Out the Vote Phone Calls to Encourage Voting: Do they work?

Case 1: Get Out the Vote Phone Calls to Encourage Voting: Do they work? Case 1: Get Out the Vote Phone Calls to Encourage Voting: Do they work? This case study is based on Comparing Experimental and Matching Methods using a Large-Scale Field Experiment on Voter Mobilization,

More information

Case 1: Get Out the Vote Phone Calls to Encourage Voting: Do they work?

Case 1: Get Out the Vote Phone Calls to Encourage Voting: Do they work? Case 1: Get Out the Vote Phone Calls to Encourage Voting: Do they work? This case study is based on Comparing Experimental and Matching Methods using a Large-Scale Field Experiment on Voter Mobilization,

More information

Conducting Surveys and Focus Groups

Conducting Surveys and Focus Groups Conducting Surveys and Focus Groups The purpose of conducting polls and focus groups is to develop an effective strategy and message. Polling I Overview of Polling A series of mostly closed-ended questions,

More information

Forecasting in a Polarized Era: The Time for Change Model and the 2012 Presidential Election

Forecasting in a Polarized Era: The Time for Change Model and the 2012 Presidential Election Forecasting in a Polarized Era: The Time for Change Model and the 2012 Presidential Election Alan Abramowitz Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science Emory University Atlanta, Georgia 30322 E-mail:

More information

Hispanic Voter Profile

Hispanic Voter Profile Hispanic Voter Profile F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 0 As the second largest population group in the state, Hispanic Texans are an increasingly important segment of the state s population, emerging as a driving

More information

Do Commodity Price Spikes Cause Long-Term Inflation?

Do Commodity Price Spikes Cause Long-Term Inflation? No. 11-1 Do Commodity Price Spikes Cause Long-Term Inflation? Geoffrey M.B. Tootell Abstract: This public policy brief examines the relationship between trend inflation and commodity price increases and

More information

Spatial Model of U.S. Presidential Election in 2012

Spatial Model of U.S. Presidential Election in 2012 Social Science Today Volume 2, Issue 1 (2015), 01-08 ISSN 2368-7169 E-ISSN 2368-7177 Published by Science and Education Centre of North America Spatial Model of U.S. Presidential Election in 2012 1 Washington

More information

DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE INTERNSHIP PROGRAM

DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE INTERNSHIP PROGRAM DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE INTERNSHIP PROGRAM INTERNSHIP PROGRAM This program provides a unique opportunity for hardworking, passionate future leaders to gain hands-on experience in Democratic politics,

More information

Current Issues. I n recent years, the U.S. Treasury Department has. Who Buys Treasury Securities at Auction? Michael J. Fleming

Current Issues. I n recent years, the U.S. Treasury Department has. Who Buys Treasury Securities at Auction? Michael J. Fleming Volume 13, Number 1 January 2007 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues Current Issues IN ECONOMICS AND FINANCE www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues Who Buys

More information

WASHINGTON INSIDERS SURVEY

WASHINGTON INSIDERS SURVEY WASHINGTON INSIDERS SURVEY CONDUCTED BY THE PRIME GROUP NOVEMBER 2016 WASHINGTON, DC BOSTON 1 Contact - Kirk Monroe kmonroe@rasky.com Washington Spending on Public Affairs to Outpace Government Relations

More information

The Electoral College

The Electoral College The Electoral College Some announcements Homework #3: Text (59-66): 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 12, 14, 20, 25, 28, 29, 34, 36, 58, 63, 73 (this is posted on Sakai) Exam 1: next Monday (Feb. 15). Keep working on projects.

More information

Facebook Friend Suggestion Eytan Daniyalzade and Tim Lipus

Facebook Friend Suggestion Eytan Daniyalzade and Tim Lipus Facebook Friend Suggestion Eytan Daniyalzade and Tim Lipus 1. Introduction Facebook is a social networking website with an open platform that enables developers to extract and utilize user information

More information

Five Roles of Political Parties

Five Roles of Political Parties It s a Party but not the kind with ice cream and cake (usually). Political parties are groups of people who share similar beliefs about how the government should be run and how the issues facing our country

More information

Inflation. Chapter 8. 8.1 Money Supply and Demand

Inflation. Chapter 8. 8.1 Money Supply and Demand Chapter 8 Inflation This chapter examines the causes and consequences of inflation. Sections 8.1 and 8.2 relate inflation to money supply and demand. Although the presentation differs somewhat from that

More information

Corporate Governance in D/S NORDEN

Corporate Governance in D/S NORDEN Corporate Governance in D/S NORDEN Contents: 1. The role of the shareholders and their interaction with the management of the company... 2 2. The role of the stakeholders and their importance to the company...

More information

CHAPTER 3 MEMBERSHIP VOTES, ELECTION AND REFERENDA

CHAPTER 3 MEMBERSHIP VOTES, ELECTION AND REFERENDA CHAPTER 3 MEMBERSHIP VOTES, ELECTION AND REFERENDA 3.1 ELECTIONS: 3.1.1 ELECTION COMMITTEE: 3.1.1.1 An Election Committee shall be formed at the last meeting in November each year. (46/97) 3.1.1.2 This

More information

Wisconsin Survey Spring 2012

Wisconsin Survey Spring 2012 The St. Norbert College Wisconsin Public Radio Wisconsin Survey Spring 2012 Survey Information: Random Selection, Landline and Cell Telephone Survey Number of Adult Wisconsin Residents: 406 LIKELY VOTERS

More information

A MONETARIST MONEY DEMAND: FUNCTION

A MONETARIST MONEY DEMAND: FUNCTION A MONETARIST MONEY DEMAND: FUNCTION Robert L. Hetzel Introduction In the first part of this article, inflation as a monetary phenomenon is discussed. The discussion is from the perspective of the modern

More information

Sample Test: Politics, Voting & Civic Participation

Sample Test: Politics, Voting & Civic Participation Sample Test: Politics, Voting & Civic Participation 1. Which statement best describes the difference between Democrats and Republicans? a. Democrats are classified as reactionary, where as Republicans

More information

OREGON SCHOOL COUNSELOR ASSOCIATION, INC. NOMINATIONS AND ELECTIONS POLICIES

OREGON SCHOOL COUNSELOR ASSOCIATION, INC. NOMINATIONS AND ELECTIONS POLICIES OREGON SCHOOL COUNSELOR ASSOCIATION, INC. NOMINATIONS AND ELECTIONS POLICIES Drafted May 29, 2003 and Adopted Revisions January 24, 2004 Revised November 18, 2006 Article I: Nominations and Elections Committee.

More information

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

More information

1. When a case that an interest group is interested in, but not actually sponsoring, comes before a court, the group can.

1. When a case that an interest group is interested in, but not actually sponsoring, comes before a court, the group can. 15 Interest Groups Multiple-Choice Questions 1. When a case that an interest group is interested in, but not actually sponsoring, comes before a court, the group can. a. meet with judges to explain the

More information

ADVANCED PLACEMENT UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS

ADVANCED PLACEMENT UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS ADVANCED PLACEMENT UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS TEXTBOOK: Government in America: People and Policy. (12 th Edition) Edwards, Wattenberg, and Lineberry SUPPLEMENTAL TEXT: American Government Readings

More information

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

More information

Government in America People, Politics, and Policy 16th Edition, AP Edition 2014

Government in America People, Politics, and Policy 16th Edition, AP Edition 2014 A Correlation of 16th Edition, AP Edition 2014 Advanced Placement U.S. Government and Politics AP is a trademark registered and/or owned by the College Board, which was not involved in the production of,

More information

Evaluating the 2015 pre-election opinion polls

Evaluating the 2015 pre-election opinion polls Slide 1 Evaluating the 2015 pre-election opinion polls Survation. I founded Survation 5 years ago, we re a leading political and social research firm more of our work currently is telephone based, although

More information

Mortgage Loan Approvals and Government Intervention Policy

Mortgage Loan Approvals and Government Intervention Policy Mortgage Loan Approvals and Government Intervention Policy Dr. William Chow 18 March, 214 Executive Summary This paper introduces an empirical framework to explore the impact of the government s various

More information

Presidential Nominations

Presidential Nominations SECTION 4 Presidential Nominations Delegates cheer on a speaker at the 2008 Democratic National Convention. Guiding Question Does the nominating system allow Americans to choose the best candidates for

More information

APPENDIX C GLOSSARY OF LEGISLATIVE TERMS

APPENDIX C GLOSSARY OF LEGISLATIVE TERMS APPENDIX C GLOSSARY OF LEGISLATIVE TERMS ACT A bill or measure after it has passed one or both chambers. Also used to denote a law in place. ACTION A description of a step that a bill undergoes as it moves

More information

Form of the government and Investment Sensitivity to Stock Price

Form of the government and Investment Sensitivity to Stock Price Form of the government and Investment Sensitivity to Stock Price Abstract One of the important functions of the stock market is to produce information through stock prices. Specifically, stock market aggregates

More information

The Election Statutes. Student Government. College of Liberal Arts. Drew University

The Election Statutes. Student Government. College of Liberal Arts. Drew University The Election Statutes of the Student Government of the College of Liberal Arts of Drew University Index ARTICLE I: NAME.....3 ARTICLE II: THE ELECTIONS COMMITTEE...3 ARTICLE III: ELECTIONS.. 4 ARTICLE

More information

Simultaneous Equations Models. Sanjaya DeSilva

Simultaneous Equations Models. Sanjaya DeSilva Simultaneous Equations Models Sanjaya DeSilva 1 Reduced Form and Structural Models We will begin with definitions; 1. Exogenous variables are variables that are determined outside of the model. For the

More information

Finanza e crescita. Andrea F. Presbitero. E-mail: a.presbitero@univpm.it Pagina web: www.dea.unian.it/presbitero/

Finanza e crescita. Andrea F. Presbitero. E-mail: a.presbitero@univpm.it Pagina web: www.dea.unian.it/presbitero/ Andrea F. Presbitero E-mail: a.presbitero@univpm.it Pagina web: www.dea.unian.it/presbitero/ Dipartimento di Economia Università Politecnica delle Marche Credito, Finanza e Sviluppo nei PVS Financial Development

More information

Dualization and crisis. David Rueda

Dualization and crisis. David Rueda Dualization and crisis David Rueda The economic crises of the 20 th Century (from the Great Depression to the recessions of the 1970s) were met with significant increases in compensation and protection

More information

Assessment: The Constitution: A More Perfect Union

Assessment: The Constitution: A More Perfect Union Name Date Assessment: The Constitution: A More Perfect Union Mastering the Content Circle the letter next to the best answer. 1. Why is the U.S. Constitution called a living document? A. It has changed

More information

Discussion by Linda Goldberg of Exchange Rate Variability and Investment in Canada. by Robert Lafrance and David Tessier

Discussion by Linda Goldberg of Exchange Rate Variability and Investment in Canada. by Robert Lafrance and David Tessier Discussion by Linda Goldberg of Exchange Rate Variability and Investment in Canada by Robert Lafrance and David Tessier Bank of Canada Conference on Revisiting the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates November

More information

American Government Get Out the Vote

American Government Get Out the Vote Non-fiction: American Government Get out the Vote American Government Get Out the Vote Have you ever heard someone being called an idiot? If you have, what they are really being called is someone who does

More information

Guidance for those considering running for the Brittonkill School Board

Guidance for those considering running for the Brittonkill School Board Guidance for those considering running for the Brittonkill School Board What to expect as a Board of Education member. 2012 Budget Vote and Annual Election Dates Board nominating petitions available: January

More information

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

More information

Electoral System in the United States

Electoral System in the United States Electoral System in the United States Introduction, Levels of election Presidential election Basics Specifics about the Electoral College Critisism at the Electoral College Procedure Nomination of presidential

More information