The hourly earnings distribution before and after the National Minimum Wage

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1 427 The hourly earnings distribution before and after the National Minimum Wage By Tim Butcher, Low Pay Commission Key points The National Minimum Wage was introduced in 999. Between 992 and 997 the hourly earnings of employees at the bottom of the hourly earnings distribution grew more slowly than the median. The hourly earnings of those at the top of the distribution grew fastest. By October 3 the adult minimum wage had increased by 2 per cent. The hourly earnings of the lowest paid grew faster than the median between 998 and 3. Those at the upper end of the hourly earnings distribution continued to have higher wage increases than the median. Similar findings are observed for all employees, male and female, full-time and part-time. Introduction The Low Pay Commission, in its Report, used the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) to look at changes in the UK hourly earnings distribution since the introduction of the National Minimum Wage. This article extends this analysis by comparing wage increases prior to, and following, the introduction and subsequent upratings of the National Minimum Wage. In order to make before and after comparisons, this article uses the New Earnings Survey. First, the National Minimum Wage and the available data are discussed. The economic background is then set out. Next, the overall changes in the hourly earnings of those aged 22 and over are analysed, before a more detailed look is taken at any differences by gender. Whether an employee works full-time or part-time is then considered. This article concludes by examining the implications of changes in the hourly earnings distribution for the gender pay gap. The National Minimum Wage The National Minimum Wage was introduced in April 999. The initial level was set at 3. an hour (the adult rate) for those aged 22 and over, with a lower level, 3. an hour (the Youth Development Rate), being set for those aged 8 to 2. Those under 8 were not covered until October 4. Table shows how the minimum wage has evolved since its introduction. Between April 999 and October 4 the adult minimum wage increased by nearly 3 per cent. The data It is useful to be able to compare a period just before the introduction of the minimum wage with the period that encompasses its introduction. Although the Office for National Statistics intends to extend the back series of the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) to 992, it is currently only available back to 998. This means that it is not possible, at the Office for National Statistics Labour Market Trends October

2 428 The hourly earnings distribution before and after the National Minimum Wage moment, to compare the period just before the introduction of the minimum wage with the period that encompasses its introduction, using ASHE data. The most appropriate dataset for this purpose is therefore the New Earnings Survey (NES), which is available from 9 to 3. This provides a dataset which allows a comparison between a period before the introduction of the minimum wage and one that starts from the announcement of the minimum wage and covers its introduction and initial upratings. The introduction of the National Minimum Wage was announced in 998 but not implemented until April 999. As employers would have started to adjust their wages following the announcement of the introduction of the minimum wage, 998 has been chosen as the start date for the period that encompasses the introduction of the minimum wage. NES data are only available up to 3, so this was chosen as the end date. For a comparative period, the five years ending in 997 were chosen. There are arguments for using slightly different periods from 992 to 997. For example, the old Wages Councils still existed in 992 and that year also marked the end of the early 9s recession. However, using a slightly different period 993 to 998 does not materially affect the conclusions. Similarly, the picture remains the same if the years 999 to 3 rather than 998 to 3 are used for the latter period. It should be noted that the NES is not available for 4 and will thus not capture the effects of the large minimum wage upratings in October 3 and October 4. Although the NES data are Table National Minimum Wage hourly rates; United Kingdom; April 999 to September unweighted and include no imputation, they do cover a random one per cent sample of employees. Comparisons can be made between the NES and ASHE for 998 to Age 6 to 7 Age 8 to 2 Age 22 and over April 999 to May June to September October to September October to September October 2 to September October 3 to September October 4 to September Source: Low Pay Commission Table 2 Percentage increase in hourly earnings a compared with percentage increase in prices, average wages and the National Minimum Wage; United Kingdom; 992 to 3 Increase (per cent) 992 to to 3 Prices (RPI) Average Earnings (AEI including bonuses) National Minimum Wage b (Apr 999 to Oct 2) 6.7 National Minimum Wage b (Apr 999 to Oct 3) 2. NES hourly earnings Mean Median th percentile Lowest decile Lowest quartile Highest quartile Highest decile th percentile Sources: Average Earnings Index; Retail Price Index; New Earnings Survey a Gross hourly earnings (excluding overtime) of all employees aged 22 and over whose pay was unaffected by absence. b The National Minimum Wage was introduced in April 999 and set at 3. for adults, increasing to 4. by October 2 and to 4. in October Indeed, similar conclusions are shown using ASHE data for 998 to and to 4 in Figure 2. of the Low Pay Commission Report (). Office for National Statistics Labour Market Trends October

3 429 Figure for all employees; a United Kingdom; 992 to Background The periods 992 to 997 and 998 to 3 were similar in terms of price and wage inflation as shown in Table 2. Between April 992 and April 997 retail prices, as measured by the Retail Price Index, rose by 2.6 per cent compared with an increase of.4 per cent between April 998 and April 3. In contrast, average earnings (as measured by the Average Earnings Index including bonuses) grew slightly faster in the latter period (22. per cent) compared with the earlier one (9. per cent). Table 2 also shows changes in hourly earnings for various percentiles along the earnings distribution and the mean. The earnings in each year are ranked from the lowest paid to the highest paid and then divided into a Gross hourly earnings (excluding overtime) of all employees aged 22 and over whose pay was unaffected by absence. 6 7 hundredths (percentiles). The median is the percentile that is in the middle of the ranking and the lowest decile is the tenth lowest percentile. The lowest quartile is the 2th percentile. The growth in earnings can be compared at each percentile point. Between 992 and 997 wages at the very bottom end of the hourly earnings distribution grew roughly in line with retail prices. For the rest of the earnings distribution, there were gains in real wages. For the latter period, 998 to 3, there were substantial real wage gains along the whole of the earnings distribution. The minimum wage was not introduced in isolation from other policies. Around the same time the government also introduced other labour market reforms that may 8 9 have impacted on the earnings distribution, such as the Working Time Directive, Welfare to Work and Making Work Pay. All employees The analysis in this article concentrates on adults, defined for minimum wage purposes as those aged 22 and over. Between 992 and 997 the median gross hourly wage excluding overtime 3, for adults aged 22 and over, grew by 7. per cent compared with an increase in the mean of 9.2 per cent. As discussed earlier, throughout both periods, wage increases were generally greater than price increases along the hourly earnings distribution. The analysis in this article focuses on increases in earnings relative to the median. Figure (and subsequent figures) show how hourly earnings increases for each percentile differ from the pay increase of the middle or fiftieth percentile (the median). It can clearly be seen that there is a positive relationship between hourly earnings increases and the percentiles of the hourly earnings distribution between 992 and 997. Those in the bottom half of the earnings distribution received pay increases that were lower than the median wage increase. Indeed, as stated earlier, between 992 and 997 (with no National Minimum Wage in operation), hourly wages grew by 7 per cent for those at the median. In contrast, they grew by less than 4 per cent at the bottom decile and by about 2 per cent for the bottom fifth percentile. The introduction of the National Minimum Wage, if it was to have an impact, would increase the hourly wages of the lowest paid relative to other employees. Figure 2 clearly shows that the hourly earnings distribution, measured relative to the Office for National Statistics Labour Market Trends October

4 4 The hourly earnings distribution before and after the National Minimum Wage median, changed between the periods before and after the introduction of the minimum wage. The monotonic positive relationship between increases in the hourly earnings and the percentiles of the earnings distribution is replaced by a U-shaped relationship for the period encompassing the introduction of the National Minimum Wage. Between 998 and 3 hourly earnings increased above the median for the lowest paid third of the hourly earnings distribution, with these increases being greater for those who were lowest paid. There were, however, few differences between the periods at the upper end of the hourly earnings distribution. In both periods, the hourly earnings of higher paid employees rose faster than those at the median. Figure 2 also demonstrates that similar conclusions can be drawn using the ASHE data. In conclusion, the increase in median hourly earnings for adults aged 22 and over was greater than the increase in hourly earnings for those in the bottom half of the hourly earnings distribution in the period 992 to 997. This contrasts starkly with the period that covers the introduction of the minimum wage. Between 998 and 3 hourly earnings at the lower end of the pay distribution grew faster than at the median. Gender differences in these findings are looked at next. Figure 2 for all employees; a United Kingdom; 998 to Sources: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings; New Earnings Survey a Gross hourly earnings (excluding overtime) of all employees aged 22 and over whose pay was unaffected by absence. Figure ASHE 998 to 3 NES 998 to 3 for male employees; a United Kingdom; 992 to Male employees Men, on average, receive higher hourly earnings than women. In 3 the average male hourly earnings were 3.3, compared with just 9.7 for women. Between 992 and 997 median hourly earnings for men grew by 6.9 per cent compared with.3 per cent a Gross hourly earnings (excluding overtime) of male employees aged 22 and over whose pay was unaffected by absence to to Office for National Statistics Labour Market Trends October

5 43 Figure 4 for female employees; a United Kingdom; 992 to between 998 and 3. Figure 3 shows how the growth in earnings compares with the median along the percentile hourly earnings distribution. The pattern for men is similar to that for all employees. That is, the hourly wages of the lowest paid improve considerably after the introduction of the minimum wage. However, among the bottom half of the distribution, only those up to the 8th percentile experienced increases in hourly earnings greater than the median, although the increases in hourly earnings were relatively better for those from the 8th percentile to the median in the latter period (998 to 3) than in the former period (992 to 997). Further, the growth in hourly wages in the upper half of the distribution appears to change little a Gross hourly earnings (excluding overtime) of female employees aged 22 and over whose pay was unaffected by absence. 6 7 Female employees Figure 4 shows that the pattern for women is similar, in that there are noticeable increases in hourly earnings for those at the bottom of the earnings distribution following the introduction of the minimum wage. The Low Pay Commission Report () showed that women were more likely to be low paid. 4 The gains at the bottom of the hourly earnings distribution are greater than for men and also reach further up the hourly earnings distribution. Further, the large increases in hourly wages at the upper end of the distribution (seen in Figure 3 for men) are not as evident for women. Between 998 and 3 only those women in the top th percentile had wage increases significantly greater 998 to to than the median. The median hourly wage for women grew by 9. per cent between 992 and 997 compared with 2.7 per cent between 998 and 3 (a faster rate of growth than for men in both periods). Overall, it can be concluded that the wages of those at the bottom of the earnings distribution clearly increase compared with the median after the introduction of the National Minimum Wage. Prior to its introduction, the lower paid had hourly wage increases significantly below the median increase. This finding is reversed between 998 and 3. Similar conclusions for the latter period for men and women are also found using the ASHE data (not shown). Having analysed the changes in the hourly earnings distribution by gender, the number of hours worked, full-time or part-time, are now investigated to see if they make any difference to the conclusions reached above. Full-time employees According to the Low Pay Commission Report (), fulltime employees only accounted for about per cent of the low-paid. The hourly earnings of full-time employees are greater than for parttime employees, although there is some evidence that the gap is closing. In 992 mean hourly earnings for part-time employees were 63.9 per cent of those for fulltime employees. This ratio rose to about 6 per cent in both 997 and 998. It rose again, after the introduction of the minimum wage, reaching 68.2 per cent in 3. Mean hourly earnings for full-time employees grew by. per cent between 992 and 997 and by 2. per cent between 998 and 3. Office for National Statistics Labour Market Trends October

6 432 The hourly earnings distribution before and after the National Minimum Wage Figure shows the difference in hourly earnings growth for full-time employees compared with the median. As we have seen for all employees, between 992 and 997 those workers earning less than the median wage had hourly wage increases of less than those at the median. Those earning more than the median had higher wage increases than those at the median. This pattern for the higher paid continued in the period from 998 to 3. In contrast to this uniform pattern for the higher paid, but similar to the finding for all employees, the hourly wages of the lowest paid increased considerably after the introduction of the National Minimum Wage. Full-time male employees The Low Pay Commission Report () showed that around a fifth of all low-paid employees were men working full-time. Although the pattern is similar for full-time male employees, particularly between 992 and 997, it is noticeable in Figure 6 that those from about the th percentile to the median experienced lower wage increases than those at the median between 998 and 3. This might suggest that differentials have been squeezed for those male full-time employees earning hourly wages just above the level of the minimum wage. Figure for full-time employees; a United Kingdom; 992 to a Gross hourly earnings (excluding overtime) of full-time employees aged 22 and over whose pay was unaffected by absence. Figure to to 997 for full-time male employees; a United Kingdom; 992 to Full-time female employees The Low Pay Commission estimates that around a fifth of the low-paid were women working full-time (Low Pay Commission Report ()). Figure 7 shows that there is a slightly different pattern for full-time female employees. Compared with the median, only those in the a Gross hourly earnings (excluding overtime) of full-time male employees aged 22 and over whose pay was unaffected by absence to to Office for National Statistics Labour Market Trends October

7 433 Figure 7 for full-time female employees; a United Kingdom; 992 to a Gross hourly earnings (excluding overtime) of full-time female employees aged 22 and over whose pay was unaffected by absence. Figure to to 997 for part-time employees; a United Kingdom; 992 to a Gross hourly earnings (excluding overtime) of part-time employees aged 22 and over whose pay was unaffected by absence to to bottom decile of the distribution appear to have gained in the period from 998 to 3. Also, in contrast to the findings for other groups, the growth in hourly earnings for those paid more than the median, other than those in the top th percentile, is more moderate, particularly after the introduction of the minimum wage. Part-time employees Attention is turned next to that group of workers most affected by the National Minimum Wage parttime employees. According to the Low Pay Commission Report (), part-time employees accounted for over per cent of the low-paid. Looking at part-time employees, who might be expected to be generally lower paid than their full-time counterparts, it can be seen in Figure 8 that the earnings distribution for all part-timers exhibits the general picture painted above. The earnings of the lower-paid increased significantly after the introduction of the minimum wage. Again, prior to this, the increase in the median hourly wage between 992 and 997 was greater than for any percentile in the bottom half of the hourly earnings distribution. In contrast, in the later period, the rise in wages above the median increase goes up to the 46th percentile. Part-time male employees Only about 2 per cent of the lowpaid were estimated to be male parttime employees (Low Pay Commission Report ()). For other employees, from 992 to 997 wage increases rose with the wage level. However, this pattern is much less clear for part-time male employees, particularly for some in the lower half of the income Office for National Statistics Labour Market Trends October

8 434 The hourly earnings distribution before and after the National Minimum Wage distribution. The gains following the introduction of the minimum wage are clearly depicted in Figure 9.It should be noted that the sample size for part-time male employees is less than that for the other categories considered in this article; therefore, caution should be used in interpreting the results of any particular percentile. However, the general picture is similar to that seen for the other categories of employees. Part-time female employees In the Low Pay Commission Report () it was estimated that nearly half of all low-paid employees were women working part-time. This group might therefore be expected to show the clearest evidence of changes in earnings following the introduction of the National Minimum Wage. Indeed, the usual pattern observed above is clearly depicted in Figure for female part-timers, which shows that they have made substantial gains in the period covered by the National Minimum Wage. Similar conclusions for the latter period for full-time and part-time employees are also found using the ASHE data (not shown). Conclusion Since the introduction of the minimum wage, the hourly wages of the lowest paid workers have increased by more than the increase for the median worker. This is in stark contrast to the period before the introduction of the minimum wage when the hourly wages of the lowest paid increased by much less than those of the median worker. It should be noted that in both periods there were substantial increases in the hourly wages of the highest paid workers. Figure 9 for part-time male employees; a United Kingdom; 992 to a Gross hourly earnings (excluding overtime) of part-time male employees aged 22 and over whose pay was unaffected by absence. Note: The st percentile has been omitted. Figure to to 997 for part-time female employees; a United Kingdom; 992 to a Gross hourly earnings (excluding overtime) of part-time female employees aged 22 and over whose pay was unaffected by absence to to Office for National Statistics Labour Market Trends October

9 43 These findings are consistent across gender and hours of work. The data show that, at the bottom end of the wage distribution, women have increased their wages by more than men for both full-time and part-time work. This provides further evidence that the gender pay gap for those on low pay has narrowed since the introduction of the minimum wage. It should be noted that the data considered in this article precedes the two large upratings of the National Minimum Wage in 3 and 4. Reference Low Pay Commission, National Minimum Wage, Low Pay Commission Report, Cm 647, The Stationery Office (). Notes. The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings replaced the New Earnings Survey in April The ASHE results use an improved methodology compared with the NES, including weighting. See pp47-464, Labour Market Trends, November 4 for details. 3. Gross hourly earnings excluding overtime will be referred to as hourly earnings in the rest of this article. 4. Low-paid is defined here, and for the rest of the article, as those employees earning less than 4.7 an hour in April 4. Further information For further information, contact: Tim Butcher, Low Pay Commission, 8th Floor, Oxford House, 76 Oxford Street, London WD BS, Tel: Office for National Statistics Labour Market Trends October

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