For Q3 2016, 80 companies in the S&P 500 have issued negative EPS guidance and 34 companies have issued positive EPS guidance.
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1 GUIDANCE John Butters, VP, Sr. Earnings Analyst Media Questions/Requests S&P 500 September 28, 2016 Key Metrics: For Q3 2016, 80 companies in the S&P 500 have issued negative EPS guidance and 34 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. The Information Technology sector has recorded the highest number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance since Q and the highest number of companies issuing positive sales guidance since Q The percentage of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q is 70% (80 out of 114), which is below the 5-year average (74%). Companies are providing EPS estimates for Q3 that are 16.3% below analyst expectations on average. This percentage shortfall relative to the mean EPS estimate is larger than the 5-year average of -9.7%. However, one company is having an unusually large impact on the negative surprise percentage for EPS guidance. The market has punished companies that have issued negative EPS guidance for Q3 more than average. Companies that have issued negative EPS guidance for Q3 have seen an average change in price of -1.2%, which is larger than the 5-year average price change of -0.5% for companies issuing negative EPS guidance. For the current fiscal year, 138 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 129 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. To receive this report via , please go to: To view other Market stories with FactSet content, please go to: All data published in this report is available on FactSet. Please contact or FACTSET for more information. FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 1
2 Q3 EPS Guidance: GUIDANCE September 28, 2016 S&P 500 Companies Have Issued More Positive Guidance Than Average for Q Highest Number of Technology Sector Companies Guiding EPS Above Estimates Since Q For the third quarter, 80 companies in the S&P 500 have issued negative EPS guidance and 34 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. The number of companies issuing negative EPS is slightly above the number for Q (79), but below the 5-year average (83). The number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance is equal to the number for Q (34), but above the 5-year average (29). At the sector level, the Information Technology (35), Consumer Discretionary (23), and Health Care (20) sectors have the highest number of companies issuing EPS guidance for the third quarter. This is not surprising, as these three sectors have historically had the highest number of companies providing quarterly EPS guidance on average. What is surprising, however, is the unusually high number of companies in the Information Technology sector issuing positive EPS guidance for Q3. The number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance in the Information Technology sector is 15, which is above the number for Q (13) and above the 5-year average (9) for the sector. If the final number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance in the Information Technology sector is 15, it will mark the highest number for this sector since Q (16). The current record high (since 2006) is 24, which occurred in Q At the industry level, 8 of the 15 companies that have issued positive EPS guidance in this sector are in the Semiconductor & Semiconductor Equipment industry. Highest Number of Technology Sector Companies Guiding Sales Above Estimates Since Q Why are more companies in the Information Technology sector issuing positive EPS guidance for the third quarter? One reason is that an unusual high number of companies in this sector are also issuing positive sales guidance for Q Of the 15 companies in this sector that issued EPS guidance above the expectations of analysts, 13 also guided sales above the expectations of analysts. FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 2
3 For the third quarter overall, 28 companies in the Information Technology sector have issued positive sales guidance. This number is above the number for Q (19) and double the 5-year average (14). If the final number of companies issuing positive sales guidance in the Information Technology sector is 28, it will mark the highest number for this sector since Q (also 28). The current record high (since 2006) is 32, which occurred in Q At the industry level, 10 of the 28 companies that have issued positive sales guidance in this sector are in the Semiconductor & Semiconductor Equipment industry, while 6 of the 28 companies that have issued positive sales guidance in this sector are in the Software industry. Many of the companies in the Information Technology sector that have issued positive guidance for Q did not provide specific reasons for their more optimistic outlooks relative to the expectations of analysts in either their press releases or conference calls. However, some companies did provide additional color regarding their revenue guidance. The increase in revenue is primarily driven by replenishment of PC supply chain inventory. The company is also seeing some signs of improving PC demand. Intel (Sep. 16) Now I'll provide our fourth quarter guidance. We expect our overall net sales to be up by 15% to 19% sequentially. Within this revenue outlook, we expect Semiconductor Systems to be up by 19% to 23% sequentially, AGS should be up by 3% to 6%, and Display should be up by 30% to 40%. On a year-over-year basis, each of our businesses is on track for strong quarterly revenue growth. Using the midpoints of our Q4 guidance, we forecast that Semiconductor Systems revenue will be up by 45% year over year, with AGS up 12%, Display up 80%, and the total company up 39%. Applied Materials (Aug. 19) Now turning to our outlook and expectations for the fourth quarter We're planning for another quarter of sequential revenue growth in the fourth quarter. In the B2B markets of industrial, automotive and communications infrastructure, we are planning for aggregate demand to remain stable sequentially and on a year-over-year basis to increase in the low-single digits to mid-single-digits. In the consumer market, strong customer demand and increasing dollar content in portable applications leads us to plan for continued sequential growth in this market. Analog Devices (Aug. 17) So now, looking ahead, I'd like to provide our non-gaap guidance for the September quarter. We're expecting shipments of $1.700 billion, plus or minus $75 million. This midpoint would represent a record level of shipments for Lam Research. We expect revenue of $1.625 billion, again plus or minus $75 million. This midpoint would also represent a record level of revenue. Lam Research (Jul. 27) FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 3
4 Steve, we're not going to get into products or product transition. However, we've taken what we've learned from last quarter, and we did see a number of encouraging signs. Luca talked about the number of countries that we saw double-digit growth in during the quarter, from Japan to Brazil to India, some even stronger numbers than that in Russia. So there's a number of countries that we saw strong signals from that perspective. We also are very happy with the switcher rate that we saw, our highest ever recorded. And the number of switchers through the nine months are the highest absolute numbers that we've ever had. And so when we look at that and then we look at the things going on, on our other products and services, and we think Services will continue to grow very briskly. We've made our best estimate of where we think we'll come in, and that's $45.5 billion to $47.5 billion. Apple (Jul. 26) Now moving on to our fourth fiscal quarter business outlook. Based on the Broad Market traction, our new program ramps as well as the content gains Liam has outlined, we expect fourth quarter revenue to be up 10% to 11% sequentially to $831 million at the midpoint. Skyworks Solutions (Jul. 21) Yeah, well, really, I mean, the revenue raise is just a reflection of posting roughly 11% growth year-to-date I think in terms of what's driving it of late, Products is very, very hot right now. And the thing that is impressive about Products, which also happens to be our largest operating group, is that their growth is broad-based across every industry in that operating group as well as each of the three geographic areas. And so, I would say that what is driving us to a strong close to the year, if you will, and hence, raising the revenue a half a point on the upper end, you would start with Products in the strong story there. Health & Public Service is another strong story, very good growth in the third quarter and very strong momentum as we look to the fourth quarter. I would say our business in North America is another source of momentum. If I had to name, let's say three big drivers, I would pick those two operating groups in North America. And then, of course, underneath that, as Pierre covered very well, is just the ongoing continued momentum in Digital and the New, which we certainly will continue into the fourth quarter. So, those are some of the big themes in terms of driving what we hope will be a good strong close to the year. Accenture (Jun. 23) Information Technology Sector: Highest Price Increase During Q3 Since June 30, the price of the Information Technology sector has increased by 12.1% (to from ). This is by far the highest price increase of all 11 sectors over this time frame. The S&P 500 overall has witnessed a price increase of 2.9% during this same period. Percentage of Companies Issuing Positive EPS Guidance Above 5-Year Average The number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q (80) is below the five-year average (83) for a quarter, while the number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance for Q3 (34) is above the 5-year average (29) for a quarter. As a result, the percentage of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q is 70% (80 out of 114), which is below the 5-year average (74%) for a quarter. The percentage of companies issuing positive EPS guidance for Q is 30%, which is above the 5-year average for a quarter (26%). At the sector-level (with a minimum of five companies issuing quarterly EPS guidance), the Industrials (10 out of 12) and Materials (5 out of 6) sectors have the highest percentages of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for the quarter at 83%. On the other hand, the Information Technology sector (15 out of 35) has the highest percentage of companies issuing positive EPS guidance for the quarter at 43%. Surprise Percentage (-16.3%) for EPS Guidance Above 5-Year Average Due to Micron Technology Although the number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance is below average for Q3, the amount by which companies are guiding EPS estimates lower is larger than the 5-year average. The 114 companies that have given EPS guidance for Q have guided earnings 16.3% below the expectations of analysts on average. This percentage decline is larger than the 5-year average of -9.7%. However, the EPS guidance issued by Micron Technology for the third quarter is having an unusually high negative impact on the surprise percentage for guidance. On June 30, Micron Technology stated that EPS for the third quarter would be between -$0.16 and -$0.24. The mean EPS estimate at the time of the guidance was $0.02. If Micron is excluded from the analysis, the surprise percentage for guidance for Q3 would be -4.1%. Market Punishing Negative EPS Guidance and Not Rewarding Positive EPS Guidance To date, the market is punishing companies that have issued negative EPS guidance more than average for Q and rewarding companies that have issued positive EPS guidance less than average for Q FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 4
5 The 80 companies that have issued negative EPS guidance for Q have seen an average decrease in price of -1.2% from two days before the guidance was issued through two days after the guidance was issued. This percentage decline is higher than the 5-year average price decrease of -0.5% during this same window for companies issuing negative EPS guidance. Overall, 50 of the 80 companies that have issued negative EPS guidance recorded a decrease in price during this time frame. The 34 companies that have issued positive EPS guidance for Q have seen an average increase in price of +2.2% from two days before the guidance was issued through two days after the guidance was issued. This percentage increase is lower than the 5-year average price increase of 2.6% during this same window for companies issuing positive EPS guidance. Overall, 12 of the 34 companies that have issued positive EPS guidance recorded a decrease in price during this time frame. Fiscal Year EPS Guidance: Increase in Negative EPS Guidance since June 30 For the current fiscal year, 138 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 129 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. As a result, the overall percentage of companies issuing negative EPS guidance to date for the current fiscal year stands at 52% (138 out of 267), which is above the percentage recorded at the end of June (47%). Since the end of Q2 2016, the number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for the current fiscal year has increased by 16, while the number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance has decreased by 6. At the sector level, the Health Care (+9) and Industrials (+6) sectors recorded the largest increases in the number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for the current fiscal year relative to June 30. On the other hand, the Information Technology sector (+8) recorded the largest increase in the number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance for the current fiscal year since the end of last quarter..at the sector level today (with a minimum of ten companies issuing guidance), the Real Estate (73%), Financials (70%), and Consumer Staples (67%) sectors have the highest percentages of companies issuing negative EPS preannouncements for the current fiscal year. On the other hand, the Information Technology (67%) sector has the highest percentage of companies issuing positive EPS preannouncements for the current fiscal year. FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 5
6 Q2 EPS Guidance: GUIDANCE September 28, 2016 Percentage (87%) of Companies Reporting Actual EPS above Guidance above Average At this point in time, all 113 of the companies that issued EPS guidance for Q have reported actual results for the quarter. Of these 113 companies, 87% reported actual EPS above guidance, 5% reported actual EPS in line with guidance, and 8% reported actual EPS below guidance. This upside percentage (87%) for Q2 is above the trailing 5- year average for companies issuing EPS guidance, and also above the overall performance of the S&P 500 for Q Of the companies that have issued quarterly EPS guidance over the past five years, 81% reported EPS above guidance, 6% reported EPS in-line with guidance, and 12% reported EPS below guidance on average. Of all the companies in the S&P 500 that reported earnings for Q2 2016, 72% reported EPS above the mean estimate, 9% reported EPS equal to the mean estimate, and 19% reported EPS below the mean EPS estimate. Definitions / Methodology The terms guidance and preannouncement have the same definition in this report and are interchangeable. Guidance (or a preannouncement ) is defined as a projection or estimate for a specific metric (usually EPS or sales) provided by a company in advance of the company reporting actual results for the metric. For companies that are classified as part of the REIT sector, FFO guidance is used in place of EPS guidance. If a company provides a range of EPS estimates for guidance, the mid-point of the range is used in this report for all analysis. Guidance is classified as negative if the estimate (or mid-point of a range estimates) provided by a company is lower than the mean EPS estimate the day before the guidance was issued. Guidance is classified as positive if the estimate (or mid-point of a range of estimates) provided by the company is higher than the mean EPS estimate the day before the guidance was issued. FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 6
7 Q3 2016: Sector-Level EPS Guidance GUIDANCE September 28, 2016 Number of Q316 Negative & Positive EPS Preannouncements (Source: FactSet) Sector Negative (#) Positive (#) Negative (%) Positive (%) Consumer Disc % 22% Consumer Staples % 33% Energy 0 0 0% 0% Financials 0 1 0% 100% Health Care % 35% Industrials % 17% Info. Technology % 43% Materials % 17% Real Estate % 22% Telecom Services % 0% Utilities % 0% S&P % 30% FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 7
8 Q3 2016: Sector-Level Revenue Guidance Number of Q316 Negative & Positive Revenue Preannouncements (Source: FactSet) Sector Negative (#) Positive (#) Negative (%) Positive (%) Consumer Disc % 38% Consumer Staples % 0% Energy 0 0 0% 0% Financials 0 0 0% 0% Health Care % 46% Industrials % 71% Info. Technology % 72% Materials 0 0 0% 0% Real Estate % 0% Telecom Services % 0% Utilities 0 0 0% 0% S&P % 57% FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 8
9 Q3 2016: Positive EPS Guidance vs. 5-Year Average Number of Q316 Positive Preannouncements vs. 5-Year Average (Source: FactSet) Sector Positive (#) 5-Year Avg. # Diff. (#) Diff. (%) Consumer Disc % Consumer Staples % Energy % Financials % Health Care % Industrials % Info. Technology % Materials % Real Estate % Telecom Services % Utilities % S&P % FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 9
10 Q3 2016: Negative EPS Guidance vs. 5-Year Average Number of Q316 Negative Preannouncements vs. 5-Year Average (Source: FactSet) Sector Negative (#) 5-Year Avg. # Diff. (#) Diff. (%) Consumer Disc % Consumer Staples % Energy % Financials % Health Care % Industrials % Info. Technology % Materials % Real Estate % Telecom Services % Utilities % S&P % FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 10
11 Q3 2016: EPS Guidance vs. Mean EPS Estimate FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 11
12 Q3 2016: EPS Guidance vs. Mean EPS Estimate FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 12
13 Current FY: Sector-Level EPS Guidance GUIDANCE September 28, 2016 Number of FY1 Positive & Negative EPS Preannouncements (Source: FactSet) Sector Negative (#) Positive (#) Negative (%) Positive (%) Consumer Disc % 41% Consumer Staples % 33% Energy 0 0 0% 0% Financials % 30% Health Care % 52% Industrials % 50% Info. Technology % 67% Materials % 58% Real Estate % 27% Telecom Services 0 1 0% 100% Utilities % 60% S&P % 48% FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 13
14 Current FY: Sector-Level Revenue Guidance Number of FY1 Positive & Negative Revenue Preannouncements (Source: FactSet) Sector Negative (#) Positive (#) Negative (%) Positive (%) Consumer Disc % 42% Consumer Staples % 31% Energy 0 0 0% 0% Financials % 0% Health Care % 61% Industrials % 53% Info. Technology % 62% Materials % 25% Real Estate % 29% Telecom Services 0 1 0% 100% Utilities 0 0 0% 0% S&P % 51% FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 14
15 Q2 2016: Actual EPS vs. EPS Guidance GUIDANCE September 28, 2016 FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 15
16 Q2 2016: Actual EPS vs. EPS Guidance GUIDANCE September 28, 2016 FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 16
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