Kansas and Climate Change

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1 Kansas and Climate Change Johannes Feddema and Nathaniel Brunsell Department of Geography The University of Kansas Simulating human land cover change in global climate models Outline Kansas and climate change Background on Kansas Climate Kansas Climate over the last century Global Climate over the last century If we can t trust the weatherman what about climate projections How reliable are climate models Climate projections Climate impacts 1

2 Background on Kansas Climate Background on Kansas Climate 2

3 Kansas Climate over the last century Degrees C Sedan (KS): Mean Temperature Time Series Annual 13 MA 5 years 9 years 29 years 12.5 Climatology Year Mean Annual Temperature (C) Temperature trends for Manhattan KS Annual 5 year MA 9 year MA 29 year MA Year H2O mm depth Sedan (KS): Mean Precipitation Time Series Annual MA 5 years 9 years 29 years Climatology Year Total Annual Precipitation (mm) Precipitation trends for Manhattan KS Year Annual 5 year MA 9 year MA 29 year MA Degrees C Kansas Climate over the last century Sedan (KS): Mean Temperature Time Series Degrees C 24 Sedan (KS): Mean Maximum Temp Time Series 23.5 Annual MA 5 years 23 9 years 29 years 22.5 Climatology Year Annual 13 MA 5 years 9 years 29 years 12.5 Climatology Year Degrees C Sedan (KS): Mean Minimum Temp Time Series 10 Annual 9.5 MA 5 years 9 years 9 29 years Climatology Year 3

4 Kansas Climate over the last century Kansas Land Cover Patterns Grassland/Rangeland Woodland Cropland Urban classes Water classes Other 91 % overall accuracy Kansas Climate over the last century 4

5 Kansas Climate over the last century Global Climate over the last century De Bilt (Neth): Mean Temperature Time Series Degrees C Annual 8 MA 5 years 9 years years Climatology Year 1300 De Bilt (Neth): Mean Precipitation Time Series 1200 H2O mm depth Annual MA 5 years 9 years 29 years Climatology Year 5

6 Global Climate over the last century How reliable are climate models Keven Trenberth, NCAR 6

7 How reliable are climate models How reliable are climate models Caspar Ammann NCAR/CGD 7

8 Climate projections CO 2,CH 4 and estimated global temperature (Antarctic ΔT/2 in ice core era) 0 = mean. Source: Hansen, Clim. Change, 68, 269, Climate projections Raupach et al., PNAS,

9 Climate projections Anomalies relative to IPCC Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32 Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data) Committed warming averages 0.1 C per decade for the first two decades of the 21 st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2 C per decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2 C per decade) 9

10 Climate projections Figures based on Tebaldi et al. 2006: Climatic Change, Going to the extremes; An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events, Climate projections Figures based on Tebaldi et al. 2006: Climatic Change, Going to the extremes; An intercomparison of modelsimulated historical and future changes in extreme events, r/publications/tebaldiextremes.html 10

11 Climate projections Multi-model average precipitation % change, medium scenario (A1B), representing seasonal precipitation regimes, total differences minus Climate projections White areas are where less than two thirds of the models agree in the sign of the change 11

12 Climate projections Fig. SPM-6 Stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in the sign of the change Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions This continues the observed patterns in recent trends Climate projections Eastern Kansas (37N, 95W) Present Day Normal D = 47 S = 304 D = Annual Deficit (mm) S = Annual Surplus (mm) +1 C Summer +2 C Spring and Fall +3 C Winter D = 69 S = C all months D = C all months D = C all months D = 123 S = 274 S = 246 S =

13 Climate projections Eastern Kansas (37N, 95W) Present Day Normal D = 47 S = 304 D = Annual Deficit (mm) S = Annual Surplus (mm) +20% Precipitation D = 30 S = 418 All temperature scenarios +1 C Summer +2 C Spring and Fall +3 C Winter - 10% precipitation D = 98 S = 161 No Change in Precipitation D = 69 S = % Precipitation D = 46 S = 325 Climate projections Western Kansas (37N, 102W) Present Day Normal D = 330 D = Annual Deficit (mm) S = Annual Surplus (mm) +1 C Summer D = C Spring and Fall +3 C Winter + 1 C all months D = C all months D = C all months D =

14 Climate projections Western Kansas (37N, 102W) Present Day Normal D = 330 D = Annual Deficit (mm) S = Annual Surplus (mm) +20% Precipitation D = 322 All temperature scenarios +1 C Summer +2 C Spring and Fall +3 C Winter - 10% precipitation D = 455 No Change D = 412 in Precipitation +10% Precipitation D = 366 The End 14

15 IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts How reliable are climate models Ammann et al. 15

16 Changes in Sea Ice Coverage Meehl et al, 2005 Simulation of Future Climate Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice Observations Simulated 5-year running mean Abrupt transition Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease Extent decreases from 80 to 20% coverage in 10 years. 16

17 Simulating Human Land Cover Change in Global Climate Models Future Directions Combine the urban and other land cover datasets at 1 km resolution use multiple satellite derived sources Develop transient datasets compatible with the present Day MODIS derived dataset based on past population and other country level statistics Develop a soil degradation model and accompanying datasets Develop fire model based on land cover and other national level statistics 17

18 18

19 IPCC,

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