DTU Climate Centre Risø

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1 Key Challenges in Making a Copenhagen Global Climate Agreement Kirsten Halsnæs Technical University

2 Technical University

3 o C Technical University

4 Technical University

5 Climate Change a Global Economic Issue Long term issue originating from atmospheric GHG concentrations Uncertainties Public good we are all sharing the climate Assymmetries between emission sources and vulnerable areas Reduction costs come in the near future, avoided climate change over centuries, but actions are required now Can only be addressed by internationally coordinated policies Technical University

6 Technical University

7 Technical University

8 Emission Growth in Developing Countries Technical University

9 Total CO2 Emissions (bn ton) Year 2030 USA Canada & Mexico Europe Pacific Trans.econ. China India Other Asian Technical University

10 Climate Change Policy Frameworks The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC 1992 The Kyoto Protocol, 1997: Reduction commitments for Annex I countries, GHG emissions to be 5.2% on average below 1990 level in Multiple gases and sectors International aviation and shipping excluded Flexibility mechanisms: Emission trading, JI, CDM Technical University

11 Climate Policies and Cost Effectiveness Reductions to be achieved with minimum global costs Costs depend on: Allocation across emission sources: Sectors, countries, GHG s Timing Options: Energy efficiency, fuels, new technologies etc. Global participation Technical University

12 Technical University

13 Figure 1. Marginal Costs of CO 2 Emission Reductions in 2010 Based on the EPPA Model. Data is in 1998 prices for USA, Japan (JPN), EEC, the Rest of the OECD (OOE), Eastern Europe (EET), Former Soviet Union (FSU), Energy Exporting Countries (EEX), China (CHN), India (IND), Dynamic Asian Countries (DAE), and the Rest of the World (ROW) 3000 Costs $ per t. C USA JPN EEC OOE EET FSU EEX CHN IND DAE ROW BRA Emission Reduction mill. t. C Technical University

14 Figure 1. Regional Allocation of Emission Reduction Quantities in the 1000 mill. t. C Reduction Case $ per t Industrialised countries Developing countries China Total Mill. t. C Technical University

15 Technical University

16 Technical University

17 Technical University

18 Mitigation Costs Kyoto: GHG emissions 5,5 % below 1990 level for industrialised countries: 0,1-1% of GDP, IPCC 3. Assessment 3 0 C stabilization scenario cost: 1,3% of GDP, IPCC 4. Assessment 2 0 C stabilization costs: 5,5% of GDP, IPCC 4. Assessment Costs of climate change impacts: 3% of GDP BNP in 2100 for 3 0 C scenario, Nordhaus and Tol 5% of GDP in 2100 for 3 0 C scenario, Stern Technical University

19 Technical University

20 Technical University

21 Incremental Primary Energy Demand (Reference Scenario) Technical University

22 Key Elements in Future Agreements Post 2012 policies will further emphasize cost effectiveness: Carbon offsets related to more sectors like energy, industry, aviation, ships, forestry, agriculture National action plans and emission trading with emerging developing countries CDM with Least Developed Countries Funds to support adaptation and technology transfer Business sector initiatives incl. international shipping and aviation Technical University

23 Carbon Taxes Versus Emission Permits Carbon taxes (fuel levy): Tax rate reflects marginal damage costs Tax rate equalises marginal reduction costs across emission sources Polluters can choose to pay tax or to invest in emission reduction A fund is established by the tax revenue Limitation: Uncertainty about emission quantity avoided Emission Permits: Emission quantity avoided is known With auctioning, revenue can be collected Polluters can choose to sell and buy permits dependent on reduction costs, profits eventually can be gained Limitation: Uncertainty about reduction costs, high transaction costs, market imperfections (monopolistic competition) Technical University

24 Costs Social costs of GHG emission reduction $/t. CO2 eq. Carbon price Social costs of climate change $/t. CO2 eq. Optimal reduction Emission reduction Technical University

25 Emission Permit Technical University

26 Technical University

27 Technical University

28 Technical University

29 Technical University

30 Technical University

31 What happens now Potential elements in a Copenhagen agreement: Minimum 20% reduction in industrialised countries in 2020 Emerging developing countries economies to have reduction targets Support to climate change adaptation in least developed countries Denmark to be independent of fossil fuels in 2050 Green growth strategies will help to get industry involved Energy savings and actions by private consumers Technical University

32 Technical University

Six greenhouse gases covered by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol are:

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