Spatial Distribution of Fossil Fuel Subsidies in India

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1 November 2014 Spatial Distribution of Fossil Fuel Subsidies in India Kieran Clarke Summary Summary In the three years to April 2014, the Indian government spent a total of Rs 447,771 crore (US $73.6bn) subsidizing petroleum products 1 the single largest social transfer administered and funded by the central government, and over four times the equivalent central budget allocation to the flagship National Rural Employment Generation Scheme (NREGS) public employment programme. 2 The regressive social distribution of fuel subsidies in India - and in particular diesel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) subsidies is widely documented. 3 In addition to these national-level social disparities, analysis of the percapita distribution of centrally-financed fuel subsidies highlights their highly regressive and inequitable distribution between different states and Union Territories, with subsidy transfers disproportionately accruing to consumers and businesses in the most developed states and Union Territories. 4 The cumulative effect of this subsidy regime has been an unprecedented transfer of resources from the central government to businesses and consumers in India s wealthiest states. Subsidy reform with the objective of promoting nationwide poverty reduction and addressing the urgent development needs of India s poorest states must therefore both rapidly end the disproportionate provision of fiscal transfers to the country s wealthiest citizens and states, above all through better targeting of subsidies to those in need of these to uphold energy access objectives. 5 For any queries please contact the author at

2 Subsidy expenditure by state 6 Diesel In FY 2012/13, the average unit subsidy on the sale of subsidized diesel was Rs per litre with diesel subsidies amounting to Rs. 92,061 crore (US $15.1bn), or 56.2% of total fuel subsidies. In FY , 10 states - Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Gujarat, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh - together accounted for over 75% of total diesel subsidy transfers. Figure 1 below outlines the aggregate subsidy transfer and percentage of total subsidy expenditure for the 20 largest diesel subsidy recipient states. Figure 1. Total expenditure on diesel (Rs crore) ( ) Source: Calculated from MoPNG (2014b; 2014c; 2013a). 1 Including under-recoveries for diesel, domestic LPG and PDS kerosene, and direct subsidies for domestic LPG and PDS kerosene. This figure does not include further costs incurred by publicly-owned Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) in relation to gas importation and corporate borrowing (due to delays in receipt of compensatory payments), freight subsidies administered under the Freight Subsidy Scheme (2002), central government transfers to selected states with the (nominal) purpose of compensating farmers for diesel consumption during periods of low rainfall, subsidy expenditure on LPG and kerosene supplied to Bhutan, customs duty, excise or sales tax exemptions, state-level price subsidies, or any direct or indirect subsidy expenditure related to natural gas. All figures in Indian Rupees (INR) unless otherwise stated. One crore is equivalent to 10 million. USD/INR exchange rate: $1 = Rs In the three years to April 2014, the total central government allocation to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) was Rs. 93,387 crore (Misra & Joshi, 2014). The central government provides 90% of MGNREGS funding, with states contributing the remaining 10%. 3 See for example Anand et al. (2013); Government of India (2013); Lahoti et al. (2012). 4 See Appendix 1 for details of state-wise GDP per capita in FY 2012/13. 5 Including Bihar, Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Odisha and Madhya Pradesh.

3 November LPG In FY , the average unit under-recovery on the sale of domestic LPG was Rs per 14.2 kg cylinder (plus an additional fiscal subsidy of Rs per cylinder), with total LPG subsidies (including both under-recoveries and direct budgetary subsidies) amounting to Rs 41,565 crore (US $6.8bn), 7 or 25.4% of total fuel subsidies. In FY , 10 states - Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, West Bengal, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi and Kerala - together accounted for over 75% of total domestic LPG subsidy transfers. Figure 2 outlines the aggregate subsidy transfer and percentage of total subsidy expenditure for the 20 largest domestic LPG subsidy recipient states. Figure 2. Total expenditure on LPG (Rs crore) ( ) Calculated from MoPNG (2014b; 2014c; 2013a) Kerosene In FY , the average unit under-recovery on the sale of Public Distribution System (PDS) kerosene was Rs per litre (plus an additional fiscal subsidy of Rs 0.82 per litre), with total kerosene subsidies (including both under-recoveries and direct budgetary subsidies) amounting to Rs 30,156 crore (US $5.0bn), 8 or 18.4% of total fuel subsidies. In FY , 10 states - Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh - together accounted for over 75% of total kerosene subsidy transfers. Figure 3 outlines the aggregate subsidy transfer and percentage of total subsidy expenditure for the 20 largest kerosene subsidy recipient states. 6 Data reported by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG) on state-level product consumption allows the estimation of the approximate distribution of centrally-financed fuel subsidies by state and Union Territory (UT). Combined with state-level population data from the 2011 all-india census (uniformly corrected by 1.3% to account for population growth), this then allows calculation of the average per capita subsidy transfer for each state and union territory (both aggregate and by product). Note that as all products were subject to dual (subsidized and unsubsidized) marketing in FY 2012/13, these calculations assume that the ratio between subsidized and unsubsidized sales is equal across all states, and do not account for unrecorded inter-state or cross-border transfers. 7 Consisting of under-recoveries of Rs 39,558 crore, and fiscal subsidies of Rs 2,007 crore. 8 Consisting of under-recoveries of Rs 29,410 crore, and fiscal subsidies of Rs 746 crore.

4 Figure 3. Total expenditure on kerosene (Rs crore) ( ) Source: Calculated from MoPNG (2014b; 2014c; 2013a). All products For all products combined, 10 states Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh together receive almost three-quarters of total fuel subsidy transfers. Figure 4 outlines the aggregate subsidy transfer and percentage of total subsidy expenditure for the 20 largest states by total subsidy received. Figure 4. Total expenditure on all products (Rs crore) ( ) Source: Calculated from MoPNG (2014b; 2014c; 2013a).

5 November Subsidy Expenditure Per Capita 9 Diesel In absolute per capita terms, the largest recipients of diesel subsidies in FY were smaller states and union territories including Daman and Diu (Rs. 4,173 per capita), Puducherry (Rs. 3,533), Andaman and Nicobar (Rs. 3,118), Dadra and Nagar Haveli (Rs 3,118) and Goa (Rs. 2,736). Among larger states, 10 Haryana was by far the largest per capita recipient of diesel subsidies - receiving the equivalent of Rs. 2,608 per person per year followed by Punjab (Rs. 1,547), and Tamil Nadu (Rs. 1, 271). Central and eastern states were the lowest recipients on a per capita basis, with states such as West Bengal and Bihar receiving Rs. 394 and Rs. 257 per capita respectively (the latter representing less than one-tenth of the subsidy received by Haryana). Figure 5. Per capita expenditure on diesel (top 20 by per capita expenditure) ( ) 9 Note that the per capita calculations represent mean averages, and that the highly regressive social distribution of fuel subsidies (in particular diesel and LPG) is likely to make the median per capita subsidy significantly lower, with the plurality of the subsidy transfer accruing to the wealthiest quartile of the population in any given state. In addition, alongside the documented differences in rates of fuel use (and therefore subsidy receipt) by income, between states, and between urban and rural consumers within states, there are also significant regional disparities in per capita product and subsidy consumption within states. For example, diesel and LPG subsidy transfers in Uttar Pradesh (UP) are likely to be disproportionately concentrated in western UP - and in particular the National Capital Region (NCR) and surrounding area - with poorer regions of the state receiving far lower per capita transfers, and similar differentials exist in other large states (such as Maharashtra). 10 States with a total population greater than 5 million.

6 Figure 6. Per capita expenditure on diesel (top 20 by population) ( ) Figure 7. Total vs. per capita diesel subsidy (top 20 by consumption) ( )

7 November LPG Among all states and union territories, Delhi received the highest per capita transfer from LPG subsidies in FY 2012/13 (Rs. 1,153 per person), followed by smaller states and union territories such as Goa (Rs 1,092 per capita), Chandigarh (Rs. 1,074 per capita) and Dadra and Nagar Haveli (Rs. 1,000 per capita). As in the case of diesel, central and eastern states were the lowest recipients on a per capita basis, with states such as Odisha (Rs. 137), Jharkhand (Rs. 132) and Bihar (Rs. 123) receiving just Rs for every Rs. 100 received in Delhi. Figure 8. Per capita expenditure on LPG (top 20 by per capita expenditure) ( ) Figure 9. Per capita expenditure on LPG (top 20 by population) ( )

8 Figure 10. Total vs. per capita LPG subsidy (top 20 by consumption) ( ) Kerosene Small hill and island states and union territories were the largest per capita beneficiaries of kerosene subsidies in FY , with Sikkim receiving the highest per capita subsidy (Rs. 718), followed by Lakshadweep (Rs. 616 per capita) and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands (Rs. 522 per capita). Among large states, Jammu and Kashmir is the highest per capita recipient of kerosene subsidies at Rs. 490 per person 11, followed by Gujarat (Rs. 346), Assam (Rs. 327) and West Bengal (Rs. 326). Delhi, which has since entirely phased out the formal provision of PDS kerosene 12, was the lowest per capita recipient of kerosene subsidies among major states and UTs at Rs. 99 per capita. Figure 11. Per capita expenditure on kerosene (top 20 by per capita expenditure) ( ) 11 Note that this may include a substantial component of consumption by (non-state origin) police and military personnel. 12 PDS kerosene imported from neighbouring states is still available in the parallel market - see for example Jain (2014).

9 November Figure 12. Per capita expenditure on kerosene (top 20 by population) ( ) Figure 13. Total vs. per capita kerosene subsidy (top 20 by consumption) ( )

10 All products In absolute per capita terms, the largest recipients of diesel subsidies in FY were smaller states and union territories including Daman and Diu (Rs. 5,336 per capita), Puducherry (Rs. 4,388), Andaman and Nicobar (Rs. 4,137), Dadra and Nagar Haveli (Rs. 4,054) and Goa (Rs. 3,937). Among larger states, Haryana was the largest per capita recipient of fuel subsidies - receiving the equivalent of Rs 3,267 per person per year - followed by Punjab (Rs. 2,296), Delhi (Rs. 2,061) and Tamil Nadu (Rs. 2,047). Central and eastern states were the lowest recipients on a per capita basis, with states such as West Bengal (Rs. 974), Uttar Pradesh (Rs. 897), Assam (Rs. 819) and Bihar (Rs. 623) receiving a fraction of the per capita transfer received by higher-consuming states. Figure 14: Per capita expenditure on all products (top 20 by per capita expenditure) ( ) Sources: Calculated from MoPNG (2014b; 2014c; 2013a) and Census of India (2012). Figure 15. Per capita expenditure on all products (top 20 by population) ( ) Sources: Calculated from MoPNG (2014b; 2014c; 2013a) and Census of India (2012).

11 November Figure 16. Total vs. per capita subsidy (top 20 by consumption) ( ) Sources: Calculated from MoPNG (2014b; 2014c; 2013a) and Census of India (2012). References Anand, R., Coady, D., Mohommad, A., Thakoor, V., & Walsh, J. (2013). The fiscal and welfare impacts of reforming fuel subsidies in India (IMF Working Paper WP/13/128). Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. Census of India. (2012). Indian Census: New Delhi: Government of India Government of India. (2013). Report of the Expert Group to Advise on Pricing Methodology of Diesel, Domestic LPG and PDS Kerosene. New Delhi: Government of India. Government of India. (2014). Economic Survey Statistical Appendix. New Delhi: Government of India. Jain, A. (2013, July 3). Kerosene-free Delhi, not really. The Hindu. Retrieved from Delhi/kerosenefree-delhi-not-really/article ece Lahoti, R., Goutam, P., & Suchitra, J.Y. (2012). Subsidies for whom?: The case of LPG in India. Economic and Political Weekly, 47(44). Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG). (2013a). Basic statistics on Indian petroleum and natural gas New Delhi: Government of India. MoPNG. (2013b). Industry Sales Review Report - February New Delhi: Government of India. MoPNG. (2014a). Consumption of petroleum products: Year (Period) April 2001-March New Delhi: Government of India. MoPNG. (2014b). Under recoveries to oil companies on sale of sensitive petroleum products. New Delhi: Government of India. MoPNG. (2014c). Fiscal subsidy on PDS kerosene and domestic LPG (under Subsidy Scheme, 2002). New Delhi: Government of India. MoPNG. (2014d). Oil and gas data: May New Delhi: Government of India. Misra, A., & Joshi, E. (2014). Budget Brief: MGNREGS Accountability Initiative 6 (6). Centre for Policy Research: New Delhi

12 Appendix 1: State-wise GDP per capita ( ) There is a wide differential in the economic status of India s 36 states and Union Territories. 13 Figure A1 below presents state-wise GDP per capita for FY , highlighting the disparity between the wealthiest states (predominantly in north, west and south India) and the states in which India s poor are concentrated (largely in east and central India), with the per capita GDP of Delhi (the richest Union Territory) and Bihar (the poorest state) differing by a factor of six. Figure A1. State-wise GDP per capita Source: Government of India (2014) All figures are for FY , and therefore only relate to 35 states and union territories (pre-dating the partition of Andhra Pradesh in 2014). Disaggregated figures for 2012/13 for the new states formed in early 2014 (Telangana and Andhra Pradesh) are currently not publicly available. 14 Note that population figures differ from those used to calculate per capita subsidy transfer. International Institute for Sustainable Development Global Subsidies Initiative International Environment House 2 9 chemin de Balexert, 1219 Châtelaine, Geneva, Switzerland Tel: Fax: For any queries please contact the author at

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