Feedstock supply chain risk. An innovative solution for managing risk in feedstock supply chains
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1 Feedstock supply chain risk An innovative solution for managing risk in feedstock supply chains
2 What is the issue? Financiers and investors are primarily concerned with a project s ability to repay debt and return a profit The credit quality of all contracting counterparties is therefore critical to its successful funding: Technology EPC Feedstock suppliers O&M Off-takers Funders impose strict conditions on the Developer within a loan or investment agreement relating to control of risk and the financial security of direct and in-direct participants Technology, EPC contractor and the feedstock supplier(s) selection will require the approval of Financiers. The biomass and energy from waste markets have been plagued with problems arising primarily from the feedstock supply chain which have caused far fewer projects to come forward than may otherwise have been the case The principal failure is the robustness of this supply chain, often involving a number of different contracts with varying counterparty risk profiles and of differing tenor
3 The supply chain dilemma no feedstock = no revenue Plant Lack of direct control or step-in with suppliers Vulnerability of revenue to supply chain
4 Logistics & Handling Logistics & Handling Logistics & Handling Handling Logistics & Handling Power Heat Logistics & Handling Primary logistic partner(s) The logistics and handling solution at On-site handling and storage Solution this level is a key stage Feedstock needs to be stored in large Very price sensitive quantities both on Secondary site Production/ and off-site logistics Off-take partner(s) Failure of a logistics partner or loss Number of days/ weeks/ Failure Failure months of the in of the logistics supply Primary or chain feedstock may cause counterparty(s) of a shipment could cause significant supply handling the plant solution to run could below Many lead capacity feedstock a counter-parties Supplier 1 interruption are Strategy may combine feedstock with reducing or inform not revenue; arriving aggregators spoiling A management strategy that can the upstream Secondary and midstream An supplier(s) active Force supply a shut-down chain causing Few strong revenue businesses respond in this to sector chain strategy / management crop interruption failure, strategy or in the should Many are heavily committed, Integral to the case continuous of enable waste; A restart operation failure problems may of the to have be lacking additional dealt the assets to underpin their of the plant businesses with revenue-related generating before impacts the waste implications are balance felt sheet Failure to manage Failure Supplier could here the Off-take have plant requires 2 contracts active are Failure likely here to have could easily impact the significant long management term implications penalties for non-performance plant that Plant Unlikely to will have have a catastrophic implications Management beyond simple strategy should be Storage effect on plant revenue operation loss particularly robust around Digestate/ bottom ash replacement contracts etc. Supplier could 3 also be affected by a supply interruption The supply chain dilemma Supplier 4
5 What can be done? A. Implement a management process and underlining strategy that stands up to scrutiny At a practical level this is the best risk mitigation strategy of all, however its typically not sufficient to satisfy a project s funder as it does not deliver any form of recourse other than to the plant owner/ operator B. Signing long term supply contracts with one or more investment grade counterparties for a substantial proportion Only A of and the C required will offer volume flexibility Leveraging a third to party s exploit balance the market sheet but brings lack a number of advantages however the nature of the market means that long-term this brings security significant challenges, particularly in identifying suitable counterparties of sufficient financial standing they a few and far between! C. Giving the feedstock supplier(s) an equity stake in the project Only B and D are likely to result in successful Skin in the game is a classic de-risking strategy however it does financing not deal in with normal the circumstances potential of but lack contractual liability outstripping the value of a minority equity stake nor flexibility of complete and are supply binary chain failure D. A credit wrap from an investment grade counterparty that stands between the supplier(s) and the project, charging for the transfer of risk This is often referred to as the bonded model this is not yet commonplace and ultimately will often not cover lost revenue. There are traders offering similar services the immaturity of their businesses and only marginally better financial standing than the suppliers they are wrapping. In both cases, the transfer of risk will carry a price.
6 Is there a flexible alternative? A robust supply chain and its underlying management strategy must be flexible so that it can respond to negative market fluctuations and leave scope to exploit opportunities A robust supply chain is one that ensures continuity of supply and therefore revenue A secure supply chain is fundable as it ensures that revenue and therefore debt service and other onward commitments are met The energy market is small and hugely innovative but can be inward looking. The manufacturing sector offers a proxy for the feedstock dilemma - where insurance is widely used to help mitigate the effects of supply chain failure; the trigger under this type of policy being simple:... any reduction in supply that leads to a loss of output/gross profit.
7 Innovative insurance solution Insurer prices the risks inherent in the supply chain based on a supply chain audit Insurance covers revenue for a failure in the supply chain Plant Market specialists audit the risks in the supply chain
8 Business models are fuel reliant Audit Feedstock Supply Chain Insurance Savills identified a need to protect businesses against the failure or interruption of the feedstock supply chain Widely used supply chain product in the manufacturing sector Unique and exclusive product to Savills Energy and its broker partner RK Harrison AD Mass-burn incineration Who is it for? Increased Business Anyone who is exposed to additional costs as a result of cost failure of interruption in the supply of raw material for use in a process working Trading Biofuels Cost of failure Developers Supply and operators who receive Revenue revenue via gate Brokerage fees or volume-related revenue and/or the production Chain reduction of power fees and heat as a result of the process and the sale of by-product Gasification Pyrolosis Also available to those supplying a plant Contractual who themselves Contractual are exposed to failures in supply e.g. wood penalties pelletising plants, loss aggregators of feedstock, traders etc Feedstock Supply Chain Insurance
9 What is it? A unique product that de-risks the supply chain with the intention of helping to unlock the investment potential of new and existing biomass projects It seeks to enhance balance sheet security initially through a thorough assessment of the supply chain. It may not only help unlock investment but could make finance cheaper and help to tempt long-term, institutional investors like pension providers into the industry It is a non-damage (i.e. Unlike traditional insurance it does not require there to have been damage, breakdown or other event insured under a physical damage policy) triggered business interruption policy designed to compensate the insured for any reduction in revenue if incurred due to the interruption or failure of the feedstock supply chain Each policy will be bespoke as it will reflect the various risks of the business model it is designed to protect however we have negotiated a base plate policy which will form the basis of each It is designed to cover reductions in revenue if the insured is contracted for the supply of product e.g. heat, power, digestate etc, then contractual fines and penalties incurred by them as a result of their breach of Contract due to failure of the supply chain are also coverable
10 The details Cover for a period of 2 years the policy year plus 12 months All Risks policy which means the risk is covered unless specifically excluded and it has minimal exclusions. Specific exclusions will be set for each risk. Key exclusions include: War Terrorism etc. Deliberate acts of the insured resulting in a interruption in supply e.g. non-payment of invoices It is Evergreen i.e. it will automatically renew every year Obligation to maintain i.e. the Insurer undertakes to maintain the Policy, subject to compliance with conditions The insured will be entitled to renew the policy with limits of indemnity reset every year, subject to compliance with conditions Premiums will be adjusted to reflect claims history but rises can be capped within ranges Premiums will be adjusted to reflect changes in risk (e.g. change in supplier, supplier insolvency etc.) may have +ve or ve impacts on the premium In order to determine terms, conditions, exclusions and pricing an audit of the supply chain will need to be undertaken in order to identify the specific risk, risk mitigation factors i.e. Plan B s, cost impacts etc
11 Contact
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