Deutsche Bank China Tour 4 March 2014

Transcription

1 Deutsche Bank China Tour 4 March 2014 Weiming Jiang, President DSM China Eric Lodder, CFO DSM China Dave Huizing, VP Investor Relations DSM

2 Safe harbor statement This presentation may contain forward-looking statements with respect to DSM s future (financial) performance and position. Such statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections of DSM and information currently available to the company. DSM cautions readers that such statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict and therefore it should be understood that many factors can cause actual performance and position to differ materially from these statements. DSM has no obligation to update the statements contained in this presentation, unless required by law. A more comprehensive discussion of the risk factors affecting DSM s business can be found in the company s latest Annual Report, which can be found on the company's corporate website, 1

3 Overview Developments in China Update on DSM s progress in China Summary DSM s FY results & outlook 2

4 China overall developments and trends The China s leadership made it clear that not just growth but sustainable growth will be a focal point in the coming years China recently suffers from heavy air pollution, not only in the regions, usually affected by this, but also in regions that were before hardly-effected by air pollution and often even campaigned with their healthy living standards and clean air This led to a very quick response and target settings by the Chinese leaders with focusses on sustainable production, reductions of energy use; compliance regarding regulations (also Food safety) and new innovative approach to upgrade the coal-based power generation industry China will continue the transformation of the economy where domestic consumption will play a bigger role 3

5 China overall developments and trends - cont Demographics trends like the ongoing urbanization will continue and there is uncertainty what the recently announced relaxing of the one child policy will bring: The society is already very used to low birth rates in developed areas The announced relaxed policies is not expected to immediately lead to highly increased birth rates Another large event is the ongoing Anti-Corruption Campaign. The Chinese leadership is continuing to focus on spending reduction by government organizations and Chinese State Owned Enterprises combined with a harsh program to reduce corruption In the western media the Anti-Corruption has sometime been perceived as strongly focused on Foreign enterprises but Chinese companies and State Owned Enterprises are equally reviewed in this campaign DSM is in China well positioned to seize the opportunities provided by these developments and trends 4

6 China macro economic developments 14.2% 12.7% % % % % % % 7.7% 7.5% China s overall 2013 GDP growth arrived at 7.7%, slightly above the government s target of 7-7.5% and market expectations. But investment remained the main key driver while consumption was weakening and knowing that the increase of domestic consumption is a major goal of the Chinese leaders The key issue is: where are we going in 2014? We clearly identified different opinions/expectations Some economists expect China to show GDP growth figures above 8% while others find the government target of 7.5% GDP growth already a stretched target. We expect a GDP growth of at least 7%. Opportunities are reforms by boosting private investment and deregulation but risks are property price inflation and a weaker demand 5

7 China macro economic developments In the year 2014 structural reforms are expected to support several industry sectors. Private sectors might start business without government approval, unless industries are explicitly mentioned on a negative list Overcapacity in many sectors will remain and will lead to consolidation in these sectors. On the other hand many industries, like health care and new energy show significant under-capacity Inflation is expected to remain on modest levels around 2-3% but expecting a 2-3% appreciation of the RMB versus the US$ Risks will be escalating geographical tension, weaker demand and the development of the realestate pricing. China s financial situation, related with non-performing (local) debts and the situation around shadow banking should be closely monitored 6

8 China s growth outlook CAGR % India 8% 6% Global GDP Outlook 2020 China We shouldn't pursue economic growth at the expense of the environment. Li Keqiang, Premier 1 4% 2% 0% Germany Japan 0% 10% 20% Source: DB Research & IMF USA Percentage of World GDP China will largely contribute to world s GDP growth from 2012 to 2020 Others 38% China 33% Constraints 2 Low external demand makes export stagnant Over capacity in most lowend industries, investment driven not effective any more Aging society, labor force shrinking & cost rising Natural resources constrains A large and growing environment deficits Direction Sustainable growth, focus on quality Domestic consumption driven Indigenous innovation and local players move up to more value-added sectors Green economy Advocating strategic emerging industries Data source: DB Research & IMF Russia 4% Japan 4% India 7% USA 14% Source: 1. Premier Li Keqiang held a conference meeting with domestic and international reporters AHTV, Mar. 17, 2013, 2. Report World Bank 2030 & Working Team Analysis 7

9 MNC versus State Owned and private enterprises SOEs Easy access to credit at a much lower financing cost Political patronage Beneficial from statecontrolled resources Less driven for innovation Less productive in management MNCs Cutting-edge R&D Well performed in branding, product quality management, and productivity Less penetrating to the mass market Low responsive speed to the market/customers Privates Speed-to-market & responsiveness Cost competitive position More entrepreneurial Lack of financing Competition in price The top Key Success Factors in the fast changing and diversified China market Speed to market needs and responsiveness Cost competitive position with sustainable manufacturing footprint Local adopted R&D and innovation Commitment to local market & strong execution Decision making power/org/localization Business model transformation adapting to China market 8 Source: WT analysis

11 Global societal trends drive DSM s markets Health & Wellness Global shifts Climate && Energy Ageing population Healthcare costs Food security Population growth Urbanization Wealth Resources constraints Energy security Sustainability Health Nutrition Materials 10

12 DSM has become truly global Strongest contribution in growth in High Growth Economies coming Nutrition, with its third party sales to HGE growing by 25% in 2013 to ~ 45% of the clusters sales (was 40%) 41% of DSM s 2013 sales* are now sold into High Growth Economies 11

13 Strategic progress DSM in China DSM actively positioning itself in China to capture the opportunities provided by developments and trends Organizational: Regional organization strengthened including shift towards more local executives Taiwan will be integrated in the China organization DSM in China is very well connected with government and industry leaders Strong focus on local talent development Increased focus on local for local innovation and products Establishing a regional innovation center HQ of DSM Fibre Intermediates moved to Shanghai Investments: DSM Nanjing Chemical company (Caprolactam) 2 nd line New plants for 6-APA, SSC and Composite Resins Ongoing Investments: Animal Nutrition Center and vitamin B6 facility Acquisitions Acquisitions: ICD (HPPE), AGI (UV-curable resins), Andre Pectin (Hydrocolloids) and premix facilities 12

14 DSM in China: towards US$ 3bn sales 2013 sales to Greater China was to US$2.0bn (US$ 1.7bn when Taiwan is excluded) Business in 2013 overall remained stable with: Strong ~ 20% sales growth in Nutrition Underlying growth in Performance Materials was offset by weakness in PA6/caprolactam chain. However, profitability levels in Performance Materials improved Sales in Polymer Intermediates sales declined due to lower caprolactam prices Double digit growth (from low level) of Innovation Center driven by solar 3,000 1,500 0 Caprolactam target Polymer Intermediates Sales to China (US$ m) Sales per cluster (2013) Nutrition Performance Materials 13

15 DSM in China: current locations in China 3,400 Employees 42 Affiliates incl. 25 Manufacturing sites China HQ & R&D Shanghai 14

16 China s transformation supports DSM s markets US China consumer market versus US and Japan China Japan US$ Mil 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 China % Markets in which DSM operates 2010 US % Construction Food Automotive/Transport Agriculture EU % US$ Mil Source: EuroMonitor, IHS Datainsight, WT analysis 15

17 Key market for animal nutrition Attractive market: China is the largest meat producer in the world, producing ~ 50% of global pig meat and 18% of global poultry* Meat production in China continued to grow despite impact from diseases in poultry Market growth driven by mega trends DSM strongly committed to capture growth: DSM has strong reputation regarding quality, traceability and sustainability Investing in premix facilities including the acquisition of Bayer s facility in Western China Building an extensive franchise-network New ANH R&D center in China Focus on domestic market, local-for-local, with many small / mid-sized customers Global Meat production 2013* (volume) Europe US / Canada 19% 15% Other 5% 16% Latin America 28% 17% China Rest of Asia Pacific * Source UN FAO Nov

18 Fast growing human nutrition Attractive market: Growing middle class and their needs to enhance health through supplements Urbanization and challenges which come along Demand for high quality infant nutrition Growth in general food industry and needs for high quality, safe food premix which simplifies industries' manufacturing process DSM strongly committed to capture growth: Leverage global products and acquisitions via strong network in China (incl Martek for infant nutrition), Fortitech Building a China based hydrocolloids platform via Andre Pectin Healthy growth in all segments including Food & Beverages, Infant Nutrition, Food Specialties (savory, dairy) and Dietary Supplements ~ 50/50 focus on both MNC s active in China as well as Chinese food producers 17

19 Investments in Nutrition in China 29% stake in Andre Pectin Sales and manufacturing of apple and citrus Pectin Key hydrocolloid providing texture Annual net sales around Euro 30m Andre Pectin is the only significant Pectin manufacturer in Asia Animal Nutrition Center In Bazhou The center will follow high international standards focusing on Swine and Poultry Contribute to the China s food safety program Strengthen the leadership of ANH in the Chinese market Premix facilities & fanchise stores 18

20 Materials end-markets benefit from trends Automotive China is the world s largest car producer Production of 18 million cars is almost quarter of global production According to IHS Global Insight, total production of cars in China is expected to grow by 6% per year until 2020 Strong drive for sustainability to combat pollution E&E Communication devices, incl smart phones, tablets, expected to show continued high growth 19

21 Investments in Materials Sciences in China The Nanjing DNCC s 2 nd caprolactam line is now operational and will contributes to topline in 2014 Doubles the Nanjing DNCC capacity for caprolactam Line is build according to very high energy efficiency standards and is a show case for sustainability ICD produces HPPE fibre (high performance polyethylene) Markets in China and global are targeted with specific applications ICD was awarded as 2013 CCTV2 "Global High-tech. This is a highly prestigious award for global companies leading in innovative solutions 20

22 Another attractive emerging market: Solar DSM Advanced Surfaces DSM increased production capacity of antireflective KhepriCoat for solar panel cover glass This product boosts the efficiency of solar panels through textured surfaces that reduces the amount of sunlight that is reflected off. Markets for solar panels growing 10-15%/yr; KhepriCoat is growing significantly faster Fast double digit growing business for DSM in China 21

23 Supporting China s sustainable development Feike Sijbesma, our CEO, has joined the Global CEO Council (GCC) of the Chinese People s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries (CPAFFC). This prestigious committee, consisting of 14 CEO s from global, leading multinational companies, will support the Chinese leadership, on several topics, including innovation, urbanization and sustainability. The Global CEO Council (GCC) of the CPAFFC is created to further enhance people s friendship, further international cooperation and common development. The GCC will directly communicate with the Chinese leadership on better understanding, friendship, cooperation and common development between China and the world. 22

25 Highlights DSM reports final 2013 results, increases dividend 2013 FY EBITDA substantially up to 1,314 million (2012 FY: 1,109 million) Q EBITDA 316 million (Q4 2012: 243 million) Strong cash generation from operating activities of 889 million in 2013 (2012: 730 million) Dividend increase of 10% proposed to 1.65 per ordinary share (2012: 1.50) Share repurchase program to hedge existing option plans continues Target for 2014 to improve business performance to at least offset negative currency impact 24

26 Vitamin E Animal feed volumes have been weak in the period H H1 2013, putting pressure on the supply chain for nutritional ingredients, such as vitamins (notably vitamin E where the threat of a new entrant in China added to competitive pressures) Lower prices in vitamin E had a negative margin impact on the Q4 Nutrition results Trading of vitamin E is firming and prices are starting to recover as: Meat production is picking up since Q3 13, expecting further growth in 2014 It has become evident that the potential new entrant will most likely not be in the market for some time No positive impact foreseen from price increases on Q results 25

27 US Dietary Supplements US vitamin and minerals based dietary supplements markets weakened towards end of 2013, with inventory adjustments in the retail supply chain at end of 4 th quarter, as reaction to negative publications doubting certain positive effects of dietary supplements The dietary supplement value chain will respond with promotion actions, as well as highlighting to the general audience the benefits of dietary supplements in H1, to re-launch the category growth Dietary supplement markets in rest of the world have not been impacted and continue to show good growth Infant Nutrition Food & Beverages 26

28 Fish-oil based Omega-3 After decades of strong growth, US fish-oil based Omega-3 market has started to decline Increased fish-oil costs in 2013 were passed through, leading to sharp increases in retail prices. This, combined with the prevalence of multiple negative media events, led to a volume decline of 10% in /3 of DSM s fish-oil based Omega-3 is sold to the US dietary supplements market Omega-3 value chain players are responding with promotion actions and launching industry wide campaigns, highlighting the vast scientific proof of positive health benefits 27

29 Western Food & Beverages markets Western food & beverages markets have been soft in recent years; consumers spent less on food In H this softness started to impact growth of A- label suppliers, where DSM is particularly strong with its nutritional ingredients This softness for A-labels is driven by: - consumers shifting from A-label to private label intensified competition in the retail segment with discounters and on-line sales gaining share, putting pressure on entire supply-chain A-label producers addressing these conditions: - high number of product launches and promotional campaigns are being planned, where in recent years the number of launches had dropped considerably - product innovations are speeded-up at DSM s innovation partners, with DSM also stepping up its innovation activities to support its customers Growth in emerging economies is driven by A-labels, tapping into the increased need for good and save quality processed foods & beverages 28

30 Negative currency effects in 2014 At constant January 14 exchange rates, DSM s EBITDA in 2014 will be negatively impacted by about 70 million, due to: 1. Less favorable hedge results from the 2013/2014 hedges versus the more favorable 2012/2013 hedges 2. Negative transaction impact from 2014 vs 2013 for the non-hedged transactions exposure: DSM has hedged for 2014, 50% of the net transaction exposure of Euro/US$, US$/CHF, CHF/JPY, GPB/CHF 3. Negative translation impact which increased due to the 2.8bn acquisitions in recent years outside Europe Impact predominantly in first half of 2014 based on January FX rates 29

31 2014 Outlook For 2014 DSM takes a prudent approach, assuming the unfavorable January 2014 foreign exchange rates are maintained for the year. Furthermore, DSM assumes a continued challenging macro-economic environment, with low growth in Europe, modest growth in the US, and a slowdown in the high growth economies. Based on the above, DSM targets for 2014 to improve its business performance to at least offset the negative currency impact of 70 million at January 2014 exchange rates. Comparable EBITDA in 2013 from continuing operations after new accounting rules for Joint ventures amounted to 1,261 million. A restatement of 2013, following the discontinuation of DSM Pharmaceutical Products and the new accounting rules for Joint ventures, is included as an annex to this press release. 30

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