MELBOURNE. Australia s prime investment location for 2015 & beyond

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1 MELBOURNE Australia s prime investment location for 2015 & beyond

2 Population The main driver for an increase in property prices, naturally, is demand. Therefore population trends are an important factor to consider when selecting locations in which to invest. Victoria, along with Queensland, has had the highest population growth in Australia over the last 5 years. In 2014 Victoria led the country for net population growth gaining 1.72% in that year alone. Population Increase SA, 0.87% NSW, 1.36% Population Increase - 5 Years to Dec 2014 SA, 4.51% NSW, 6.53% QLD, 1.35% VIC, 1.72% QLD, 8.77% VIC, 8.62% Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian Bureau of Statistics The number of people entering Victoria is important, but equally as important are the types of people entering. In Victoria, NSW and SA (low overall migration) a very high proportion of overall growth came from overseas migration. Overseas Migration Vs Population 80% 70% 69,852 10,403 60% 56,002 50% 40% 24,235 30% 20% 10% 0% NSW VIC QLD SA Australian Bureau of Statistics

3 Students Student migrants, studying in highly skilled fields are highly sought after by Governments worldwide. This is because these skilled individuals are highly valuable for knowledge based economies like Australia. Entering the workforce after their studies, they are employed in important industries with skills shortages, increasing productivity and paying high levels of tax. Melbourne leads Australia as the destination of choice for Student Migrants because of its high quality of life and large selection of quality Universities. Wealthy Individuals The other main group of overseas migrants spread over New South Wales and Victoria are the wealthy individuals (mostly from China) who are investing large sums of money into the economy as part of their visa applications. Again, very valuable additions to any economy. Migrants in the s European Economic Refugees Blue Collar Migrants in the 2000 s China & South East Asia White Collar and/or Skilled

4 Demographic Change Melbournians are increasingly selecting location and lifestyle over size or type of property. Effectively, they are choosing place over space, meaning they would rather live in an apartment or town house closer to their work and friends rather than the larger home in the suburbs. There are various reasons for this; an ageing population, couples living without children for longer and getting married later and changing family structures i.e single parents, divorces etc. KPMG Demographics Income The income of a population also has an important role to play when it comes to price growth. If the prices of a property are too high in relation to the earnings of the average household it reduces the likelihood of growth. Dwelling Prices vs Household Income Adel Brisb Melb Syd Unit Prices x Income House Prices x Income Australian Bureau of Statistics As shown in the graph above, Sydney is currently less affordable than any other city in Australia which is no surprise. When assessing this data it is important to factor in what stage of the property cycle each state is in. It is evident that Sydney is nearing the top of their current property cycle while Melbourne and to a lesser extent Brisbane are in the growth fazes.

5 Livability Melbourne was again crowned the world s most livable city 1 for the fourth time in a row by the Economist Intelligence Unit Survey. In the review, Melbourne was given perfect scores for health care, education and infrastructure. Melbourne s offers a multicultural lifestyle and cultural hub which is appealing to Australians from other states as well as international migrants. Demand for Living Space Currently there is an under supply of dwellings which exceeds 20,000 in Melbourne. This is expected to surpass 100,000 in the year 2030 and the increased demand for somewhere to live versus the drastic shortage of accommodation means that the average property and rental prices are predicted to continue to increase. Hipster Middle Australia McMansion <5km 5-15km 15-25km >25km Total Growth Sydney 10,400 22,200 21,000 30,600 84,200 Melbourne 12,700 23,400 29,600 30,000 95,700 Brisbane 4,900 8,900 10,300 14,500 38,500 Perth 2,300 14,100 14,400 17,600 48,400 Adelaide 1,400 6,300 1,000 4,500 13,300 KPMG Demographics The perceived supply issues the media splashes over our screens are limited to the Greater Melbourne Municipality (CBD, Southbank, Docklands etc) and the green wedges of Melbourne. The middle ring suburbs, which as the table above outlines, are the areas experiences the highest growth in population and comparatively limited supply of dwellings. PLAN Melbourne Due to the rising population and change in demography, the Victorian State Government introduced a structure plan in the year 2000 to cater for the city at 5 million residence. This plan has been put in place to better manage the metropolitan growth and make better use of existing transport links. Effectively, the State Government is trying to encourage people to live closer to employment areas, most notably the CBD, and has put the majority of their infrastructure spend into the Key Activity Centres within these locations. What this gives us, is a plan that pinpoints the parts of Melbourne that will experience the highest growth in population as well as infrastructure improvement. This, along with an intimate knowledge of the local market conditions, allows Nyko Property to select locations within the key suburbs that will experience the maximum amount of growth and continuing strong Economist Intelligence Unit Survey

6 Stamp Duty Victoria s stamp duty differs from the rest of Australia in that it is calculated on the dutiable value rather than the purchase price. For property that is purchased off the plan or during construction that can make a huge difference in the stamp duty payable. Stamp Duty Payable By State - Off The Plan Town House $25, $20, $18, $17, $21, $15, $10, $5, $- $4, New South Wales Queensland South Australia Victoria The graph above uses an example of a $500,000 town house purchased off the plan. In Victoria the stamp duty payable for this property will be between $13,000-$16,000 less than the other states. When purchasing an apartment, with less of the property s value made up from the land content, the stamp duty payable is lower again. For the below example the stamp duty would be $16,000-$20,000 less in Victoria. Stamp Duty Payable - Off the Plan Apartment $25, $20, $18, $17, $21, $15, $10, $5, $- $1, New South Wales Queensland South Australia Victoria

7 Steady Melbourne s property market has seen steady long term growth over the last 48 years with an average of 9.53% per annum 2 with only 8 years of negative growth recorded over that period. The property market is underpinned by strong demand from investors both locally and nationally plus a growing population that is showing no signs of slowing. Further to this, property prices within Melbourne are still at manageable levels with Sydney 49% more expensive for housing and 35% for units % 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% % % Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) In contrast, Melbourne prices are just 9.9% higher than houses in Brisbane and 25.6% higher than Adelaide. With Melbourne on track to outgrow Sydney as our biggest city by the mid/late 2030 s these figures show there is plenty of room for Melbourne property prices to move. Important Note: While selecting the city to invest in is an important part the investment property equation, selecting the locations within those cities and the property types that match those locations best is even more vital. The macro outlook that forms this document is of no use to you if the selection of your investment property is not based on the same level and quality of research and data. 2 Australian City median Prices Houses

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