The Future of Development Finance

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1 The Future of Development Finance Financing for Development in Action Series 0 Geneva, 7 December 2016 Senior Vice President Mahmoud Mohieldin

2 FROM COMMITMENT TO DELIVERY PRESENTATION OUTLINE Overview of global context, including 2030 Agenda Note global trends affecting implementation of the 2030 Agenda Financing for Development Discuss how WBG can maintain institutional focus and action for 2030 commitments 1

3 GLOBAL FRAMEWORKS FOR DEVELOPMENT: FROM MDGs TO SDGs MDGs ( ) SDGs ( ) Goals 8 17 Targets Indicators 60 ~231 Priority Areas Human Development Holistic: Economic, Social, Environmental Scope Developing Countries Universal The global development agendas serve as a compass and guide for countries to determine their national development path 2

4 GLOBAL CONTEXT Unprecedented challenges Heightened global ambitions Commitments to scale up WBG Forward Look Slowdown in global growth Climate change Crises and pandemics Infrastructure finance gap End of super cycle on commodities Sustainable Development Goals COP21 Agreement Sendai Framework 3 Addis Ababa Action Agenda/Financing for Development Billions to Trillions MIGA/IFC/IBRD-IDA integrated approaches in country and sector strategies, especially infrastructure A better and stronger Bank able to respond to challenges at the country and regional levels, by: Providing crisis response mechanisms Delivering global public goods Mobilizing additional resources

5 12 GLOBAL ECONOMY: MUDDLING THROUGH GDP Growth (Percent) World Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Economies Source: World Bank, June

6 FINANCING, CONFLICTS, CLIMATE CHANGE, DATA ARE THE MOST FREQUENTLY IDENTIFIED CHALLENGES Lack capa -city Lack of data CC Environment Conflicts Lack of capacity Lack of financing Conflicts Climate change Climate change Trade restrictions Clim. change Lack data Conflicts Lack of financing Pop. displacement Lack of capacity Enviro nment Lack data Conflicts violence Lack fin. Violence Violence/ extremism Lack of capacity Climate change Climate change Lack capa -city Lack data Lack of fin 5

7 6 CRITICAL COMPONENTS OF FINANCING FOR DEVELOPMENT 1. National public resources: Improving domestic resource mobilization (DRM) 2. Global public resources: Better and smarter aid 3. National and global private resources: Unlocking private investment for development, Attracting FDI, Remittances, Philanthropic finance The World Economic Forum estimated that annual demand for infrastructure finance alone is $3.7 trillion. With annual investment currently around $2.7 trillion, this leaves a gap of $1 trillion per year. According to the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, incorporating climate considerations raises the financing gap even further, to $2-3 trillion per year.

8 DOMESTIC RESOURCES ARE THE LARGEST RESOURCE AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT A country s ability to mobilize domestic resources (DRM) and spend them effectively at the national, subnational and municipal levels lies at the crux of financing for development. Strengthening the capacity of local governments, including to raise their own revenues, to manage expenditures and service delivery, and to borrow and manage debt prudently is critical; 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Median tax revenue as a percent of GDP by Income grouping, (Tax/ GDP Ratio) Developing inter-government fiscal transfer arrangements that consider the needs of sub-national governments and equalize fiscal capacity and expenditure is also critical 0% Source: IMF data High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income 7

9 2. OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE As development challenges at the global and national levels increase, so too should the resource envelope available to meet these needs.oda flows are simply not enough Developing countries' total resource receipts ODA Non-ODA Personal remittances ODA: Official Development Assistance. ODA in the chart includes bilateral ODA and multilateral concessional flows. Non-ODA flows include: other official developmental flows, officially-supported export credits, FDI, other private flows at market terms and private grants. Adjusted gross disbursements, three-year moving average, USD million, 2012 constant prices. Sources. Remittances, World Bank. Other resource flows, DAC statistics. NB: Data on flows to MADCTs 8 are only available up to 2010.

10 3. MOBILIZING PRIVATE RESOURCES FOR DEVELOPMENT As development challenges at the global and national levels increase, so too should the resource envelope available to meet these needs. Aggregate assets held by ten largest MDBs: $1.3 trillion Making the Billions to Trillions pledge a reality requires expanding the pool of development capital beyond the multilateral development banks (MDBs) and official agencies. Private funds: o $2 trillion of assets held by the world s ten largest pension funds o $4.5 trillion of assets held by the world s ten largest insurance companies o $5 trillion in assets held by the world s ten largest sovereign wealth funds o $100 trillion global bond market The global community looks to the World Bank Group to lead on the Billions to Trillions initiative - a call to greatly increase the financial capacity that can be deployed to meet the Sustainable Development Goals. 9

11 Data as of June THE FINANCING FOR DEVELOPMENT AGENDA The need to mobilize new resources is further emphasized by the Financing for Development (FFD) agenda, as part of the joint UN-MDB Billions to Trillions (B2T) effort. 1,2 The IMF and MDBs (AfDB, AsDB, EBRD, EIB, IaDB and WBG) presented a joint vision, Billions to Trillions (B2T), at the Third international Conference on Financing for Development held in Addis Ababa on July 13-16, Emphasized the need to use the billions of dollars generated in ODA to unleash trillions in private, public, international and domestic finance to fund the 2030 Development Agenda. The MDBs reaffirmed their role as the main engines of development finance we not only provide direct financial assistance, but also mobilize, catalyze, and crowd-in public and private sources of development finance. 10

12 MDB LEVERAGING AND MOBILIZING MODEL Data as of June ,2 11

13 WBG INSTRUMENTS The WBG has a spectrum of instruments spanning the public-private sectors to help mobilize capital. Public Projects PPP/Private Sector Projects Private Projects* IBRD/IDA Loans, Credits, Grants Loan Guarantees Payment Guarantees for Cross-Border Projects Advisory Services: Investment Environment Loan Guarantees Payment Guarantees Loans/Credits for Govt. Contributions to a PPP project IFC Loan to sub-sovereign, public, creditworthy entities Advisory Services: Investment Environment Project Structuring IFC A and B Loans Equity Credit Guarantee for Private Sponsors MCPP IFC A Loan Equity Credit Guarantee for Private Sponsors MIGA Non Honoring of Sovereign Financial Obligation (NHSFO) Non Honoring of Sub- Sovereign Financial Obligations Non Honoring of SOE Obligations Political Risk Insurance Transfer restriction and inconvertibility Expropriation Breach of Contract War and Civil Disturbance Political Risk Insurance (PRI) * No government contribution or intervention 12

14 WBG RESOURCES FOR DEVELOPMENT And the World Bank Group has continually adapted its product portfolio to meet global challenges. 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Financing Structural Adjustment: First Generation Reforms Guarantees Debt Relief Swaps against macro shock (housing) Single Currency Loans (SCL) variable spread Single Currency Pool Loans (SCP) Hedging products Development Policy Financing: 1 st & 2 nd Gen Reforms Deferred Drawdown Option Local currency financing (2009) Deferred Draw Down Option for Catastrophe Risk (CAT DDO) Program for Results Financing Investment Project Financing (IPF) : Responding to Fragile Situations Guarantees: Integrated with IPF and DPF; greater access for IDA clients Disaster risk management products (Meteorological & geological events) Pandemic Emergency Facility First global Investment Vehicle for emerging markets Focused Industry knowledge/finance MSME support Derivatives/ risk management instruments Trade finance First local currency bond GTLP & crisis Initiatives Parallel loan syndication Board endorsement blended finance principles MCPP AMC Green bonds MIGA is first MDB created to issue guarantees to leverage private investors and reinsurers Small Investment Program Trust Funds for FCS added for Bosnia- Herzegovina, Afghanistan, and West Bank & Gaza Non-honoring of Sovereign Financial Obligations CAFEF established Coverage to standalone debt approved Non-honoring of Financial Obligations by a State- Owned Enterprise Innovation in product applications, e.g. capital market support 13

15 WBG MOBILIZING AGENDA AREAS OF FOCUS Increased Financial Leverage Innovative Approaches to Support Public Goods Mobilization of Private Capital to invest in developing countries Convening platform for public and private sectors, at global, regional and national level Increased Domestic Resource Mobilization IBRDs increase in financial leverage through expenditure review Creation of a Pandemic Emergency Facility (PEF) IFCs Asset Management Company (AMC) and Managed Co-lending Portfolio Program (MCPP) Innovative partnerships for leverage MENA Concessional Facility, Global Crisis Response Platform Joint IMF-WBG Tax Initiative to build incountry domestic resource mobilization capacity (led by GGODR and launched during the Lima Annual Meetings) MDB exposure exchange swaps Enhanced role in climate finance Global Infrastructure Facility Development Finance Forum annual gathering of influencers in private and public sectors, incubating approaches to scale up Intensified Knowledge work (e.g. Colombia s Building Local Currency Bond Markets to Finance Infrastructure; ) IDA's recent triple-a credit ratings is a first step to enable capital market access, enabling it to provide clients with billions of dollars in additional resources Intensified work on Illicit Financial Flows 14

16 IDA MARKET ACCESS AND LEVERAGING Data as of June ,2 Recent innovations in WBG instruments will further enhance the capacity of the institution to mobilize funds for development IDA18 is leveraging its equity by accessing the market to scale-up lending operations to IDA countries Through the leveraged IDA model, the WBG aims to provide financing most suited to client needs in a financially efficient and prudent manner, by blending donor contributions with funds raised through debt markets. We aim to dramatically increase the efficiency of donor contributions: for every dollar raised from donors, we plan to generate 3 dollars of commitment authority for IDA18 and beyond, relative to 2 dollars in IDA17. 15

17 IDA S PRIVATE SECTOR WINDOW 1,2 Objective: Unlock significant opportunities to mobilize private capital, and help scale up the growth of a sustainable and responsible private sector in IDA countries. Set aside US$2.5 billion ($2bn for IFC and $500mn for MIGA) Aims to leverage the strengths and expertise of each of these entities of the WBG to deliver higher development impact in IDA (and especially FCS countries) Builds on the scope and impact of IFC and MIGA s opportunity-driven business models and networks of private sector clients, partners and reinsurers Potential instruments are designed to target significant barriers to private sector development. 16

18 IFC S ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPANY 1,2 Data as of June Formed in 2009, AMC is IFC s fund management business, managing third-party capital across eleven funds that invest in IFC transactions in developing countries. US$6.7 billion has been raised from 42 investors since its inception. $2,000mn $2,855mn $2,945mn $3,338mn $4,603mn $5,824mn $6,700mn 17

19 CREATING MARKETS IS A WBG AGENDA: EACH STEPPING UP, ALL CREATING IMPACT TOGETHER IFC 3.0 : A change in business model: from leveraging markets to creating markets Going upstream and working to create bankable projects Clear asks of Bank: specific areas where de-risking needed New mobilization mechanisms, broader institutional and other investor networks Institutional enablers Aligned incentives: To focus on enabling private solutions to public issues Budget allocation: To support Bank de-risking activities Engagement mechanisms: To process sourcing, analytics, ex ante development impact assessment, implementation New capabilities: Financial and technical 18

20 MIGA: POLITICAL RISK INSURANCE MIGA provides political risk insurance guarantees to private sector investors and lenders. MIGA s guarantees protect investments against-noncommercial risks and can help investors obtain access to funding sources with improved financial terms and conditions. Since it s inception in 1988, MIGA has issued more than $28 billion in political risk insurance for project in a wide variety of sectors, covering all regions of the world. 19

21 OVERVIEW OF WBG GUARANTEE PRODUCTS Mobilizes private sector financing in situations where obligations typically fall under the control of government WB G IFC provides credit guarantees for private sector participants as their primary clients. Mobilizes private sector (investors, lenders, reinsurers) by providing guarantees for noncommercial risks. 20

22 What are we doing differently: The World Bank Group s approach to the 2030 agenda Data Data collection M&E Reporting Finance Public - private External - domestic Implementation Institutions Policy Inclusive Growth Government sector / Private sector / CSOs-NGOs / Multilaterals + UN Global level Regional level National level Local level

23 THANK YOU Financing for Development in Action Series

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