A Vision of Earth 2052 and its Implications for Decisions Today Jørgen Randers, Professor BI Norwegian Business School Norway

Transcription

1 A Vision of Earth 252 and its Implications for Decisions Today Jørgen Randers, Professor BI Norwegian Business School Norway The 6th Concept Symposium on Project Governance, September 214, Norway

2 A Vision of Earth 252 and Implications for Decisions Today Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy BI Norwegian Business School J Randers 1 Concept Symposium Losby, September 25 th, 214

3 12 scenarios for the 21 st century J Randers 2

4 Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis 3: Industrial output 5: Nonrenewable resources : Food output : Population : Pollution level Year 21 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 3 year update, 24 J Randers 3

5 Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability 5 5: Nonrenewable resources : Food output 3: Industrial output : Population : Pollution level Year 21 4 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 3 year update, 24 J Randers 4

6 For all details, go to J Randers 5

7 The five regions used in the 252 forecast Region Population 21 GDP 21 GDP per person 21 (billion people) (trillion $ pr year) US, China 1,3 1 7 OECD-less-US (1), BRISE (2) 2, ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6, (1 $ pr person-year) (1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 14 countries of the world Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 212 J Randers 6

8 World population will peak in 24 Gpersons 1 % / yr 5, 8 Population ( scale) 4, 6 3, 4 Birth rate (scale ) 2, 2 Death rate 1, g database with slides Graph , Figure 4-1 Population World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 212 J Randers 7

9 % / yr 5, World GDP growth will slow down G$ / yr 15 Gp 1. 4, World GDP (scale ) , Long term growth rate in output per person aged 15 to 65 ( scale) Population aged 15 to 65 (scale ) , , 3 2., g1365j. Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product World 197 to 25 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Output per member of potential workforce Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 212 J Randers 8

10 Global consumption will peak in 245 G$ / yr Traditional investment (24% of GDP) Non-discretionary spending (repair, adaptation, mitigation) World GDP Consumption 3 g database with slides Graph Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 212 J Randers 9

11 World energy use will peak in 24 Gtoe / yr 2 toe / M$ 3 G$ / yr Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale ) World energy use ( scale) World GDP (scale ) Figure 5-1: Energy Use World 197 to 25 g database with slides Graph 6 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 212 J Randers 1

12 World use of fossil fuels will peak around 23 Gtoe / yr 6,5 5,2 Coal use 3,9 Oil use 2,6 1,3 Gas use Renewable energy use Nuclear use, Figure 5-2: Energy Uses World 197 to 252 g database with slides Graph 8 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 212 J Randers 11

13 World CO 2 emissions will peak in 23 GtCO2 / yr 5 tco2 / toe 5 Gtoe/yr Climate intensity = CO2 per unit of energy CO2 emissions ( scale) (scale ) Energy use (scale ) 1 5 g database with slides Graph Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use World 197 to 25. Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 212 J Randers 12

14 Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 252 ppm 5 deg C 2,5 m CO2 in atmosphere ( scale) Temperature rise (scale ) 2, 1, Sea level rise (scale ) 1,.6 1,5.3 g database with slides Graph , Figure 5-4: Climate Change World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 212 J Randers 13

15 Enough food to satisfy demand but not need Gt / yr 12,5 THE WORLD Gha t/ha-yr 2, 1 1, Food production ( scale) 1,6 8 7,5 Cultivated land (scale ) Gross yield (scale ) 1,2 6 5,,8 4 2,5,4 2 g database with slides Graph 11, , Figure 6-1: Food Production World 197 to 25 Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 212 J Randers 14

16 Discussion of the 252 forecast 1. World population and GDP growth will slow by itself Because of human choice, not planetary constraints 2. There will be enough resources Because middle class will be smaller than expected 3. There will still be significant poverty Because of growing inequity in the rich world and low GDP growth in the poor world 6. The world will be well on its way towards a climate catastrophe in the second half of the 21 st century J Randers 15

17 The root problem: Pervasive short-termism J Randers 16

18 There will be huge regional differences 4 35 After-tax income per person (in 25 PPP $ per person-year) US 3 25 OECD-less-US 2 China World average BRISE Rest of world Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 212 J Randers 17

19 Main conclusions from the 252 forecast World population and economy will grow more slowly towards 252 than most people expect - but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis Consumption will stagnate because society will have to spend ever more labour and capital on repair and adaptation The short-term nature of man - reflected in the short term focus of democracy and capitalism - is the root cause of this development J Randers 18

20 What should be done? - Ideally 1. Further slow population growth Introduce 1-child policy first in rich world 2. Cut CO2 emissions first in the rich world Ban the use of coal, oil and gas from Reduce poverty in the poor world Give them a climate-friendly energy system 4. Reduce the ecological footprint of the rich world Legislate compulsory vacation 5. Temper national short termism Establish supra-national institutions 6. Reduce the focus on income growth Establish increase in well-being as a new goal J Randers 19

21 We need to modify the decision making system In order to attain two major changes A shift in societal investment flows - towards what society needs in the long run - away from what is profitable in the short term A shift in societal goals - towards wellbeing and leisure - away from production growth J Randers 2

22 To this end current decision making should 1. Seek higher well-being rather than higher GDP per person 2. Place more weight on national needs and less on profitability 3. Be more sensitive to long term and soft consequences 4. Emphasize distribution over growth 5. Disregard public opinion when it is unduly short term J Randers 21

23 It is time to turn J Randers 22

24 Slowing growth in total productivity - USA % / yr 1, 8, 6, Rate of growth in GDP per person 15 to 65 years of age 4, 2,, -2, -4, g database with slides Graph 3c -6, Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 23

25 Fertility decline in EU to 21 2,5 Total fertility 2, Replacement fertility = 2.1 children per woman 1,5 Long term trend 1,,5, Figure A4-1 Total Fertility EU to 21 Definition: Total fertility = Number of children per woman during reproductive age POPULATION_BY_AGE_FEMALE_12522.xls Source: Jorgen Randers, 252, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 212 J Randers 24

26 5 % of human CO2 ends in the atmosphere CO2-flow in Gt/year 1. Emissions from energy production (grey) 2. Emissions from deforestation (brown) 3. Absorbed in forests (green) 4. Absorbed in oceans (blue) 5.To atmosphere (yellow) Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 29 J Randers 25