A Profile of Eastern Ontario (Regional Data Set)

Transcription

1 A Profile of Eastern Ontario (Regional Data Set) March 31, 2007

2 Table of Contents 1. Highlights 2 2. Population, Area and Population Density Across Eastern Ontario Territorial Capital 8 Climate 9 Location.. 10 Transportation Infrastructure.. 11 Natural Resources Soils 14 Forests and Crown Land Human Capital Age Profile 16 Gender.. 17 Labour Force Participation 18 Employment and Unemployment Rates Financial Capital Income Levels Sources of Income 27 Influence of Urban-Rural Relationships on Earnings and Income Across Eastern Ontario. 30 Areas of Persistent and Fluctuating Poverty.. 31 Municipal Tax Bases. 32 Venture Capital, Business Financing, and EODP Innovation Capital Research and Development.. 37 Incubators and Technology Parks. 37 ICT Infrastructure/Services.. 38 Education Levels and Services Mobility of Residents 43 Post-Secondary Institutions.. 45 Universities 45 Colleges Economic Capital Economic Cluster Development (Location Quotients). 47 Urban-Rural Linkages Economic Development Capital (Collaborative Organizations) Lifestyle Capital 65 1

3 1. Highlights of Eastern Ontario s Territorial Capital Total population of Eastern Ontario: 2 million, 1.3 million outside of Ottawa, and just over 700,000 in counties and upper tier municipalities within the EOWC; 383,000 in smaller separated cities; in all, Eastern Ontario represents about 15 per cent of the provincial total. Eastern Ontario covers 49,000 square kilometres, nearly a quarter of which is Crown land. The region s population density is 40 persons/km 2 but varies from 17 persons/km 2 in counties and upper tier municipalities to 25 persons/km 2 when small cities are included. Geographic span gives the region substantial natural resources --- from eight climate zones to good agricultural land and forest resources. Built resources include major provincial highways (400 series), rail lines, four international crossings into the United States, and five deep water ports on the St. Lawrence Seaway and Lake Ontario. The age profile of Eastern Ontario residents is similar to the rest of the Province up to the age band. In this group and older bands, Eastern Ontario s population tends to be somewhat older. The employed labour force in 2001 was just over a million people, half of which is in the rural areas and small cities. Labour force participation rates and employment rates are lower in Eastern Ontario than for the province as a whole. Unemployment rates are higher. Citizens in Eastern Ontario are more likely to have college or trades education than university degrees. There is evidence of significant sector-based migration of labour within the region. Average personal and family incomes are lower across most of Eastern Ontario than for the province as a whole, sometimes by margins of $15,000 a year. Most of Eastern Ontario derives less of its income from employment earnings and more from government transfers than does the province as a whole. There is some evidence of higher-wage urban areas pushing up incomes in adjacent rural areas but the effect does not extend very far into the centre of Eastern Ontario. Eastern Ontario exhibits some evidence of areas in which poverty is persistent and others where it is a fluctuating condition. Municipal tax bases are heavily dependent on residential assessment and on an assessment/km 2 basis, are much lower than other rural or urban areas in the province. Commercial and industrial education taxes vary widely across the region. While the region does not have incubators or technology parks (outside Ottawa), there are many collaboratively-minded regional organizations with economic development mandates. Much of Eastern Ontario does not have access to broadband services. While there are some services for entrepreneurs and small businesses, access to capital remains a challenge. Eastern Ontario s 13 post-secondary education institutions have campuses in 23 communities; access to education and training remains a geographically-based challenge in the most rural areas. In addition to natural landscapes and small town lifestyles, Eastern Ontario has 45 healthcare institutions (as well as other health care services). 2

4 2. Population, Area and Population Density 2.1 Population Nearly two million people live in Eastern Ontario. Of the total population, the City of Ottawa accounts for just under half (812,000). Nearly as many people (709,530) live in the eleven counties and two upper tier municipalities of Eastern Ontario. An additional 383,000 live in ten small cities distributed throughout the region. In terms of population, Eastern Ontario is about 15 percent of the total population of Ontario and roughly a third the size of the Greater Toronto Area. Since 2001, Eastern Ontario has grown by just over four percent, with a few centres leading the way. In order of rate of population increase, the fastest growing communities in Eastern Ontario over the period were: Kawartha Lakes (City), Haliburton (City), Belleville (City), Ottawa (City), Prescott and Russell (County), and Peterborough (City). Note that both Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton posted growth rates above the provincial average (6.58). This underscores the diversity in growth patterns across Eastern Ontario and the prospects for strong growth in urban and rural areas. Note that in Frontenac County (not including the City of Kingston); population growth was above nine percent. In the same time period, growth in Kingston was 2.64 per cent. Only two communities in Eastern Ontario witnessed net declines in population: Smiths Falls and Prescott. None of the counties or upper tier municipalities suffered a population decline. Geographic Area (data source: Statistics Canada - community profiles 2006) Population 2006 Pop. Change (%) County-Based Calculation: Counties of Eastern Ontario (not incl. any separated cities) 709, Small separated cities (all except Ottawa) 383, Counties plus small separated cities (excluding Ottawa) 1,093, City of Ottawa 812, Total Eastern Ontario 1,905, CFDC-Based Calculation: Eastern Ontario - CFDC areas (not incl. any separated cities) 1 784, Small separated cities (all except Ottawa) 383, CFDC areas plus small separated cities (excluding Ottawa) 1,168, City of Ottawa 812, Total Eastern Ontario 1,980, Chart Population and the Rate of Population Change in Eastern Ontario ( ) 1 Includes rural areas of Durham and York regions that are within the service area of the South Lake Community Futures Development Corporation. This is not included in the County-based calculation. 3

5 Chart A - Jurisdictional Breakout of Population and Population Change for Counties and Upper Tier Municipalities Jurisdiction Population (2006) Population (2001) Population Change ( #) Population Change ( : %) Population 2006 (including separated cities) Population 2006 (excluding separated cities) Population 2001 (excluding separated cities) Population Change ( : %) Ontario 12,160,282 11,410, , ,160,282 N/A Eastern Ontario - Counties Prescott and Russell 80,184 76,446 3, ,184 80,184 76, Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry 110, , ,399 64,434 63, Leeds and Grenville 99,206 96,606 2, ,206 67,784 65, Lanark 63,785 62,495 1, ,785 55,008 53, Renfrew 97,545 95,138 2, ,545 83,615 81, Frontenac County 143, ,606 5, ,865 26,658 24, Lennox and Addington 40,542 39,461 1, ,542 40,542 39, Prince Edward 25,496 24, ,496 25,496 24, Hastings 130, ,915 4, ,474 38,956 38, Haliburton 16,147 15,085 1, ,147 16,147 15, Peterborough 130, ,856 4, ,080 55,182 54, Northumberland County 80,963 77,497 3, ,963 80,963 77, Kawartha Lakes 74,561 69,179 5, ,561 74,561 69, Eastern Ontario - Counties and Small Cities 1,093,247 1,056,707 36, ,093, , , South Lake/ Part of Durham/York 75,212 71,928 3, ,212 75,212 71, Eastern Ontario - CFDC areas and Small Cities 1,168,459 1,128,635 39, ,168, , , Ottawa 812, ,072 38, ,129 Total (including Ottawa) 1,980,588 1,902,707 77, ,980,588 Note that rates of population change have been calculated before exclusion of separated cities from county values (fourth column) and after their exclusion (the last column). Within each county, there is considerable variation in growth rates. For example, in Frontenac County, South Frontenac saw its population grow by 11.0 per cent in the period while North Frontenac experienced growth of 5.7 per cent. In Lennox and Addington County, Loyalist Township saw population growth of 3.2 per cent in the period while Addington Highlands (further north) experienced population growth of 4.6 per cent.

6 Chart B - Jurisdictional Breakout of Population and Population Change for Separated Cities Population Change ( #) Population Change ( : %) Eastern Ontario - Separated Cities Population (2006) Population (2001) Ottawa 812, ,072 38, Kingston 117, ,195 3, Cornwall 45,965 45, Belleville 48,821 46,029 2, Quinte West 42,697 41,366 1, Pembroke 13,930 13, Peterborough 74,898 71,466 3, Smiths Falls 8,777 9, Brockville 21,957 21, Gananoque 5,285 5, Prescott 4,180 4, Total (Separated Cities Only) 1,195,846 1,146,168 49, Total Separated Cities minus Ottawa) 383, ,096 11, Geographic Area Eastern Ontario includes a geographic area of 49,000 km 2, of which the City of Ottawa accounts for approximately 2,800 km 2. Eastern Ontario is seven times larger geographically as the Greater Toronto Area and accounts for almost half of Southern Ontario. There is significant variation in the size of Eastern Ontario counties and upper tier municipalities. They range from just over 1,000 km 2 (Prince Edward County) to more than 7,000 km 2 (Renfrew County). Similarly, separated cities vary widely in size. Ottawa is the largest with nearly 2,800 km 2 (which includes a significant rural component). Kingston and Quinte West are the only two other cities of more than 400 km 2 in area; Belleville is fourth in size at close to 250 km 2

7 2.3 Population Density Overall, the population density of Eastern Ontario is approximately 40 persons/km 2. This includes counties, upper tier municipalities, and all separated cities, including the City of Ottawa. The population density for the counties, upper tier municipalities, and separated cities excluding Ottawa drops to 25 persons/km 2. When just the counties and upper tier municipalities are concerned, the population density drops even further to roughly 17 persons/km 2. This is much lower than the Greater Toronto Area (750 persons/km 2 ) or the City of Toronto (4000 persons/km 2 ). It is only slightly above the provincial average of 13.4 persons/km 2, which is heavily influenced by the large geographic area (and modest population) of Northern Ontario. The most sparsely populated counties are Hastings, Haliburton and Frontenac counties, all of which average fewer than 10 persons/km 2. The most heavily populated counties are Northumberland and Prescott and Russell, both of which have more than 40 persons/km 2. Within each county, there is often significant variation in population density from township to township. For example, within Frontenac County, South Frontenac (the township closest to the City of Kingston) has a population density of 19.4 persons/km 2 while North Frontenac has a population density of 1.7 persons/km 2. In Lennox and Addington County, population density is 44.3 persons/km 2 in Loyalist Township and 1.6 persons/km 2 in Addington Highlands. Using the OECD definition of rural for individual communities (rather than regions), which is 250 persons/km 2, all of the counties and upper tier municipalities would be classed as rural. Most of the separated cities would not; Belleville and Quinte West are the exceptions. Kingston, which includes significant rural areas, might be considered borderline. Using the 100,000 population threshold as the dividing line between rural and urban, only Kingston and Ottawa exceed this size. The City of Peterborough is the next largest, with nearly 75,000 residents; all other separated cities are under 50,000 in size. 6

8 Population Density (persons/square kilometre) including separated cities Population Density (persons/square kilometre) excluding separated cities Area (in square Jurisdiction kilometres) (2006) Ontario Eastern Ontario - Counties Prescott and Russell 2, Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry 3, Leeds and Grenville 3, Lanark 2, Renfrew 7, Frontenac County 3, Lennox and Addington 2, Prince Edward 1, Hastings 5, Haliburton 4, Peterborough 3, Northumberland County 1, Kawartha Lakes 3, Eastern Ontario - Counties and Small Cities 45, South Lake/ Part of Durham/York Eastern Ontario - CFDC areas and Small Cities 46,267 Ottawa Total (including Ottawa) 49,045 Eastern Ontario - Separated Cities Population Density (persons/square kilometre) including separated cities Area (in square kilometres) (2006) Ottawa 2, Kingston Cornwall Belleville Quinte West Pembroke Peterborough Smiths Falls Brockville Gananoque Prescott Total (Separated Cities Only) 4, Total Separated Cities minus Ottawa) 1, Chart Geographic Area and Population Densities Across Eastern Ontario Population Density (persons/square kilometre) excluding separated cities 7

9 3. Territorial Capital The concept of territorial capital is drawn from recent literature on rural policy 2. It suggests that economic development must be based on an assessment of the assets within a particular community or region. These assets (capital) are natural, human, physical and cultural resources. The view that each region is unique and likely to be as diverse within the region as in comparison to other regions means that every region must be treated as distinct for policy and program purposes. For the purposes of this Regional Profile, five different types of territorial capital are considered: Geography (climate, population density, strength of urban-rural linkages, pressure from nearby development, size of local/nearby markets, and isolation due to distance, terrain or culture). Human Capital (size of population, and growth rates, demographics, levels of education and skills development, and entrepreneurship) Innovation Capital (ICT infrastructure/services, innovation infrastructure such as R&D, incubators, and technology parks; availability of education/training services, support services for entrepreneurs) Financial Capital (local government assessment, access to public sector financing tools, access to angel funds, venture capital, and other private sector lending facilities) Economic Capital (sectoral structure of the economy, identified clusters of economic strength, state of business facility infrastructure, value-added products/services in the economic mix, transportation infrastructure such as roads, transit, rail, air services, border crossings, direct access to natural resources, constraints on resource utilization, external threats to core industries, economic transition intelligence ) Economic Development Capital (local/regional development plans, local/regional data sets and analyses, collaborative stakeholder relationships, local champions for developmental initiatives, access to developmental programming and funding). Lifestyle Capital (built and natural amenities, cultural diversity, ready access to health care) While some of Eastern Ontario s human capital is described in Section One (Population and growth rates), the balance of this report presents key aspects of Eastern Ontario s profile within the framework of the preceding categories of territorial capital. 2 See the Rural Policy Literature Review, a companion document to this Regional Profile. 8

10 3.1 Climate Zones Eastern Ontario is situated in a temperate climate zone with significant moderating influences and lake effect weather patterns in the southern part of the region from the presence of Lake Ontario. Eastern Ontario would normally expect to receive mm of precipitation annually (30.5 to 33.8 inches). This is approximately double what western cities such as Saskatoon and Regina might receive (352 to 394 mm; 13.8 to 15.5 inches). Eastern Ontario spans eight climate zones (6a to 2b) allows varied pursuits from the wine region of Prince Edward County to the northern forests of Renfrew County. In terms of temperature, the climate in the southern part of Eastern Ontario is similar to well-known U.S. agricultural states such as Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Nevada and parts of Illinois, Indiana, Oregon, Arizona and even Arkansas. In the northern areas of Eastern Ontario range from -30 o C in winter to +38 o C in summer. In Prince Edward County, even milder winter temperatures would be expected perhaps as high as - 10 o C. This is the climatic equivalent to parts of southwestern Ontario. Eight Climate Zones (6a to 2b)

11 3.2 Location Eastern Ontario is located east of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) between three major cities (Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal). It is separated from the United States from Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River, and from the Province of Quebec by the Ottawa River. Algonquin Park Ottawa Montreal United States Toronto 10

12 3.3 Transportation Infrastructure Roads As shown on the map presented later in this section, Eastern Ontario has thousands of kilometres of major highways, some of which are maintained by the Province of Ontario through the Ministry of Transportation, and many other highways are maintained by the municipal governments of the region. Eastern Ontario is traversed by several 400 series highways, including the Highway 401 corridor which runs roughly east-west in the southern part of the region, connecting the Greater Toronto Area, all the communities along the corridor, and the Province of Quebec. Highway 416 leading north to Ottawa, and Highway 417 which runs east-west through Ottawa connecting to Quebec on the east and Highway 17 to the northwest. Although it has not yet been extended into Eastern Ontario, Highway 407 now reaches close to its boundaries and is scheduled for further eastward extension. Highway 7 is a vital highway link running through the middle of the region, from the southeast of the region to Ottawa in the northwest. Eastern Ontario has received approximately 2,000 km of downloaded highways, but this is almost certainly less than half of the total kilometres of paved highways in the region. In addition, Eastern Ontario has thousands of kilometres of other roads for which the municipal governments of Eastern Ontario are responsible. A region-wide initiative is currently under way to quantify the transportation assets in the region, including the locations, age, and state of repair of both roads and bridges. This work will provide a much better assessment of the value of infrastructure in the region as well as the financial and other requirements to maintain or upgrade this vital territorial capital Bridges The nature of Eastern Ontario s terrain --- landscapes with lakes, rivers and wetlands --- requires municipalities to incorporate many bridges into the road system. Although municipal governments in Eastern Ontario are responsible for many bridges integrated into the transportation system, the region also has three major bridge crossings to the United State at Cornwall, Prescott and Brockville (1000 Islands). A fourth ferry crossing between Kingston, Wolfe Island and Cape Vincent, New York is also available.. 11

13 3.3.3 Rail Lines For freight services, Eastern Ontario is served by two rail lines. CN rail service runs along the southern border of the region (along the shore of Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River). There are spur lines serving local industry at many points along this line. A CPR line also runs east-west across the region but swings further north (just south of Highway 7). For freight services, VIA uses the CN tracks providing corridor service to communities between Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa Deep Water Ports Eastern Ontario has five deep water ports (two in Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry, one in Leeds and Grenville, another in Lennox and Addington, and the fifth in Prince Edward County. There is also a deep sea port at Oshawa; this port is heavily used by businesses in the western part of Eastern Ontario Commercial Airports Eastern Ontario has an international airport on the outskirts of Ottawa as well as two other regional airports in Kingston and Peterborough. The City of Quinte West is home to a federal airbase, Canadian Forces Base Trenton. By crossing to Syracuse, residents of Eastern Ontario can access flights to many U.S. destinations from the airport in that city. 12

14 400 Series Highways and Arterial Roads 2 Rail lines for freight and passenger service 5 Deep Water Ports 4 Airports (incl. one international) 4 International crossings (one by ferry) 13

15 3.4 Natural Resources Soils and Forests The soils of Eastern Ontario are highly diverse in type, depth and distribution. Across the southern part of the region lies a mixed band of soils, often well-suited to agriculture (classes 1 to 3). Significant areas of these lands are also found further north in the Renfrew area. Moving north from the limestone plains of the south into the Canadian Shield, soils tend to become thinner and rock outcropping more common as a result of glacial action. Nonetheless, these landscapes are often heavily forested and, as a result, support commercial activities in this sector. Forested Lands Agricultural Lands Chart The Distribution of Soils Across Eastern Ontario 14

16 3.4.2 Crown Land The presence of large tracts of Crown land across the northern and western parts of Eastern Ontario distinguishes the region from other parts of rural southern Ontario. These Crown lands, which remain in Provincial hands, cover approximately 25 per cent of the land mass of the region (11,000 km2). Part of the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence forest (the second largest forest type in Ontario) 3, these areas contain a wide range of tree and shrub species. These range from eastern white pine, hemlock and white cedar, red pine and balsam fir to sugar maple, white and yellow birches, red oak and basswood. These lands provide a variety of revenue streams to the Province; it is estimated that stumpage fees from timber extracted from these areas under sustainable forest licensing agreements alone exceed $100 million a year. Chart The Distribution of Crown Land in Eastern Ontario

17 4. Human Capital 4.1 Age Profile - A Younger and Older Population Like most jurisdictions in North America, the population of Eastern Ontario is becoming progressively older. Eastern Ontario is also aging in relation to the Province as a whole. In all age categories 45 years old or older, Eastern Ontario has a higher relative percentage of its population in these groups than the Province. The most likely reasons are youth out-migration, coupled with the increasing age of the baby-boomers demographic, and possibly in-migration of boomers and other slightly older age groups. Eastern Ontario has a slightly higher proportion of its population in the 5-14 and age groups than across Ontario as a whole. This comparative position changes in the age group, presumably because this would be a typical age at which young people would either begin to pursue higher education or employment. For Eastern Ontario, it is highly likely that a share of young people would leave their home communities to do so. Distribution of Population By Age (Ontario and Eastern Ontario) Proportion Ontario Proportion Eastern Ontario 25.0 (%) Age 0-4 Age 5-14 Age Age Age Age Age Age Age Age 85 and over Chart Distribution of Population by Age (Ontario and Eastern Ontario) Data obtained from Statistics Canada. (Note: Statistics Canada use varying intervals for the age categories (ex and then 25-44); the South Lake CFDC area not included in this calculation.)

18 Proportion Age Group Proportion Ontario Eastern Ontario Age Age Age Age Age Age Age Age Age Age 85 and over Chart Comparison of Distribution of Population (Ontario and Eastern Ontario) 4.2 Gender When considered by gender, Eastern Ontario has proportionately more men than women in each of the younger age categories (up to age 24). From age 25-44, there is a higher proportion of women than men. In the and age groups, there are proportionately more men than women. Women again form a higher proportion of the population in age groups of 65 years or older. Distribution of Population By Gender in Eastern Ontario Women in Rural Eastern Ontario Men In Rural Eastern Ontario 20.0 (%) Age 0-4 Age 5-14 Age Age Age Age Age Age Age Age 85 and over Chart Distribution of Population in Eastern Ontario by Gender 17

19 4.3 Labour Force - Size and Participation Eastern Ontario s employed labour force in 2001 was a million persons (1,068,340) with about half of them (492,875) in the rural areas and small cities. Counties and upper tier municipalities accounted for nearly three-quarters of this number: 324,875. Small cities (excluding Ottawa) accounted for 168,170. By itself, Ottawa has an employed labour force of 407,295. On average, labour force participation 4 across Eastern Ontario is somewhat lower than for the Province of Ontario as a whole. In comparison to the average labour force participation in Ontario (67.3%), the only areas in Eastern Ontario that match these employment levels are the United Counties of Prescott and Russell, the City of Ottawa, and the area served by the South Lake CFDC. 5 Across Eastern Ontario, labour force ranges by nearly 20 per cent --- from just over 50 per cent in Haliburton and Pembroke to more than 70 per cent in South Lake, Prescott and Russell, and Ottawa. Labour Force Participation Rates Across Eastern Ontario County Rates Include Separated Cities, Also Shown Separately ( %) (%) South Lake Kawartha Lakes Haliburton Peterborough Northumberland Hastings Quinte West Belleville Peterborough (City) Frontenac Kingston Leeds & Grenville Gananoque Brockville Prescott Lanark Prince Edward Lennox & Addington Smiths Falls SDG Cornwall Prescott and R... Ottawa Renfrew Pembroke Ontario Chart Percentage of the Labour Force as a Percentage of Population 15 and Over, by County and Separated City. (Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census) 4 Participation Rate refers to the labour force in the week (Sunday to Saturday) prior to Census Day (May 15, 2001), expressed as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and over. Source: Statistics Canada 5 This area is composed of Brock Township and the Towns of Georgina and East Gwillimbury. These rural areas are part of the Regional Municipalities of Durham and York. 18

20 Labour Force Participation Rate ( %) Employed Labour Force (2001 including separated cities) Employed Labour Force (2001 (excluding separated cities) Labour Force - Size and Participation Rates Eastern Ontario Kawartha Lakes ,200 31,200 Haliburton ,080 6,080 Peterborough ,650 25,860 Northumberland ,585 35,585 Hastings ,975 16,415 Prince Edward ,110 11,110 Renfrew ,675 38,550 Lennox & Addington ,345 18,345 Frontenac ,430 11,835 Leeds & Grenville ,800 32,540 Lanark ,065 26,190 Stormont, Dundas and Glen ,490 31,525 Prescott and Russell ,470 39,470 Eastern Ontario (with/without small cities) 492, ,705 South Lake ,151 39,151 Eastern Ontario CFDC areas (with/out small cities) 532, ,856 Separated Cities Peterborough (City) ,790 Quinte West ,190 Belleville ,370 Kingston ,595 Pembroke ,125 Smiths Falls ,875 Brockville ,255 Cornwall ,965 Gananoque ,380 Prescott ,625 Ottawa ,295 Eastern Ontario's separated cities 575,465 Eastern Ontario's separated cities (n/i Ottawa) 168,170 Eastern Ontario - Total 1,068,340 Eastern Ontario - CFDC areas 1,107,491 Ontario 67.3 Chart Labour Force Size and Participation Rates for Eastern Ontario (2001) 19

21 4.4 Employment and Unemployment Rates Employment Rates Like labour force participation rates, employment rates 6 also vary significantly across Eastern Ontario. As the following chart indicates, employment rates are lowest in communities such as Haliburton, Prescott and Pembroke. They are highest in South Lake, Prescott and Russell, and Ottawa. In fact, these are the only three areas that match or exceed the provincial average employment rate of 63.2 per cent. Employment Rates Across Eastern Ontario County rates include separated cities, also shown separately ( %) South Lake Kawartha Lakes Haliburton Northumberland Peterborough Peterborough (City) Hastings Belleville Quinte West 0.0 Frontenac Kingston Prince Edward Lennox and Addington Gananoque Brockville Prescott Lanark Leeds and Grenville Ottawa Renfrew Pembroke Ontario Smiths Falls SDG Cornwall Prescott and Russell Chart Employment Rates Across Eastern Ontario 6 Employment Rate refers to the number of persons employed in the week (Sunday to Saturday) prior to Census Day (May 15, 2001), expressed as a percentage of the total population 15 years of age and over. 20

22 Jurisdiction Employment Rate (2001) Unemployment Rate (2001) South Lake Kawartha Lakes Haliburton Northumberland Peterborough Peterborough (City) Hastings Belleville Quinte West Prince Edward Lennox and Addington Frontenac Kingston Leeds and Grenville Gananoque Brockville Prescott Lanark Smiths Falls SDG Cornwall Prescott and Russell Ottawa Renfrew Pembroke Ontario Chart Employment and Unemployment Rates Across Eastern Ontario Unemployment Rates In 2001, unemployment rates 7 varied across Eastern Ontario from 4.1 (in two communities) to 11.0 per cent (Prescott). Only six communities have unemployment rates lower than the provincial average of 6.1 per cent: South Lake, Haliburton, Prince Edward, Lanark, Prescott and Russell, and Ottawa. Eighteen (18) communities have unemployment rates exceeding the provincial average. 7 Unemployment Rate refers to the numbers of unemployed persons expressed as a percentage of the labour force in the week (Sunday to Saturday) prior to Census Day (May 15, 2001). 21

23 Unemployment Rates Across Eastern Ontario County rates include separated cities, also shown separately ( %) (%) South Lake Kawartha Lakes Haliburton Northumberland Peterborough Peterborough (City) Hastings Belleville Quinte West 0.0 Frontenac Kingston Prince Edward Lennox and Addington Gananoque Brockville Prescott Lanark Leeds and Grenville Chart Unemployment Rates Across Eastern Ontario Ottawa Renfrew Pembroke Ontario Smiths Falls SDG Cornwall Prescott and Russell In the February 11-17, 2007 release of national unemployment data, Statistics Canada cited the following unemployment rates: Jurisdiction Unemployment Rate Ottawa 5.5 Eastern Ontario 7.5 Kingston 5.0 Central Ontario 4.9 Chart Unemployment Rate Information for Selected Areas Source: 22

24 5. Financial Capital 5.1 Income Levels Overall, the incomes of individuals and families in Eastern Ontario are significantly below the provincial average. Average Individual Incomes: Based on the most recent available census data (2005), only one community (the City of Ottawa) had average individual (personal) incomes equal to or higher than the provincial average ($35,185). The average individual income across all of the counties of Eastern Ontario, which includes the smaller cities in the region, is $28,295. On personal income, Eastern Ontario is, on average, close to $7,000 per annum less than the provincial average. However, the range across Eastern Ontario varies from about $500 to about $13,600. Across Eastern Ontario, average personal incomes (2005) range from $21,594 in Haliburton County to $34,666 in South Lake and $31,296 in the United Counties of Prescott and Russell. Average Family Incomes: In 2005 (est.), only Lanark County, Prescott and Russell and the City of Ottawa had average household incomes that reach or exceed the provincial average. In the case of Ottawa, the difference is dramatic more than $15,000 a year. All other communities counties and smaller cities alike - are below the provincial average, sometimes by as much as $15,000 a year (Haliburton and Hastings Counties, Smiths Falls and Pembroke.) Median Household Incomes: Based on the last census (2000), most communities in Eastern Ontario and many outside of it have median household incomes higher than for the Province as a whole. Recalling that median measures are simply the middle value (50 per cent of households above/50 per cent households below), this analysis suggests that the pattern of income distribution varies widely across Eastern Ontario. Comparison to Western Ontario: Average personal income is slightly lower in Eastern Ontario than in Western Ontario, and both are significantly below the provincial average. On average personal income, Eastern Ontario is approximately $2,000 lower than in Western Ontario. Urban-Rural Income Gaps: In their July 2005 Financial Analysis Measuring the Urban-Rural Income Gap in Canada, RBC Financial Group noted that In 2001, Ontario had the highest median family income and the highest CMA median income. Median family income is driven in large measure by the high values for Oshawa, Toronto, Ottawa Hamilton, and Kitchener. Because some of Ontario s small cities are now CMAs in their own right (ex. Kingston, Peterborough), comparisons between urban and rural areas focus the definition of rural on the least heavily populated parts of the province. When comparing CMAs and rural areas, RBC found that Ontario has the largest CMA-rural gap of any jurisdiction in the country: $12,

25 Area Average Individual/Personal Income (all persons 15+) 2000 ($) Median Individual/Personal Income (all persons 15 +) 2000 ($) Median 8 Household Income 2000 ($) Ontario $35,185 $24,816 n/a Western Ontario $30,984 $23,379 $49,306 Eastern Ontario 9 $28,750 $21,809 $46,083 Chart Average Personal Incomes and Median Incomes in Rural Ontario Difference Jurisdiction Average Earnings (all persons with earnings 2000) Median Family Income (2000) Above/Below Provincial Average Individual Earnings Toronto $ 37,833 $ 76,951 $ 2,648 Pickering $ 41,536 $ 95,021 $ 6,351 Ajax $ 38,105 $ 88,183 $ 2,920 Oshawa $ 33,007 $ 80,036 -$ 2,178 South Lake $ 34,666 $ 79,109 -$ 519 Kawartha Lakes $ 28,300 $ 68,463 -$ 6,885 Haliburton $ 21,594 $ 52,055 -$ 13,591 Northumberland $ 30,030 $ 70,904 -$ 5,155 Peterborough $ 28,990 $ 69,417 -$ 6,195 Peterborough (City) $ 28,574 $ 69,487 -$ 6,611 Hastings $ 27,183 $ 64,443 -$ 8,002 Quinte West $ 27,841 $ 65,214 -$ 7,344 Belleville $ 28,890 $ 68,323 -$ 6,295 Prince Edward $ 27,356 $ 64,168 -$ 7,829 Lennox & Addington $ 27,340 $ 67,345 -$ 7,845 Frontenac $ 30,299 $ 74,377 -$ 4,886 Kingston $ 30,600 $ 75,317 -$ 4,585 Leeds & Grenville $ 29,676 $ 70,713 -$ 5,509 Gananoque $ 26,799 $ 68,724 -$ 8,386 Brockville $ 29,499 $ 68,543 -$ 5,686 Lanark $ 30,803 $ 72,145 -$ 4,382 Smiths Falls $ 25,753 $ 62,040 -$ 9,432 SDG $ 27,852 $ 66,410 -$ 7,333 Cornwall $ 26,352 $ 64,025 -$ 8,833 Prescott and Russell $ 31,296 $ 74,477 -$ 3,889 Ottawa $ 39,713 $ 92,672 $ 4,528 Renfrew $ 27,113 $ 64,219 -$ 8,072 Pembroke $ 24,894 $ 60,534 -$ 10,291 Ontario $ 35,185 $ 61,024 Chart Average Earnings and Median Incomes in Rural Ontario 8 Statistics Canada definition: The median income of a specified group of households is that amount which divides their income size distribution into two halves. That is, the incomes of the first half of households are below the *median, while those of the second half are above the median. 9 Data taken from Future Directions Report, which contains income from separated cities in county totals. 24

26 Average Personal Earnings Across Eastern Ontario County values include separated cities, also shown separately (all persons with earnings 2000) Toronto Pickering Ajax Oshawa South Lake Kawartha Lakes Haliburton Northumberland Peterborough Peterborough (City) Hastings Quinte West Belleville Prince Edward Lennox & Addington Frontenac Kingston Leeds & Grenville Gananoque Brockville Lanark Smiths Falls SDG Cornwall Prescott and Russell Ottawa Renfrew Pembroke Ontario Chart 5.1.1: Average (Personal) Earnings for Communities Across Eastern Ontario (2000) Average Household Incomes Across Eastern Ontario County values include separated cities, also shown separately (2005) $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $- Haliburton Kawartha Lakes Peterborough Peterborough... Northumberland Hastings Belleville Quinte West Prince Edward Lennox & Addi... Frontenac Kingston Leeds & Grenville Gananoque Brockville Lanark Smiths Falls Stormont, Du... Cornwall Prescott and... Ottawa Renfrew Pembroke Ontario Chart 5.1.2: Average Household Incomes Across Eastern Ontario (2005) 25

27 Median Family Income Across Eastern Ontario County values include separated cities, also shown separately (2000) Toronto Pickering Ajax Oshawa South Lake Kawartha Lakes Haliburton Northumberland Peterborough Peterborough (City) Hastings Quinte West Belleville Prince Edward Lennox & Addington Frontenac Kingston Leeds & Grenville Gananoque Brockville Lanark Smiths Falls SDG Cornwall Prescott and Russell Ottawa Renfrew Pembroke Chart 5.1.3: Median Household Incomes Across Eastern Ontario (2000) Average Household County Income (2005) Haliburton $ 44,765 Kawartha Lakes $ 56,142 Peterborough $ 55,591 Peterborough (City) $ 52,772 Northumberland $ 59,119 Hastings $ 44,765 Belleville $ 53,399 Quinte West $ 54,744 Prince Edward $ 55,764 Lennox & Addington $ 54,533 Frontenac $ 59,515 Kingston $ 59,780 Leeds & Grenville $ 59,242 Gananoque $ 51,222 Brockville $ 51,775 Lanark $ 60,681 Smiths Falls $ 45,279 Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry $ 51,975 Cornwall $ 44,913 Prescott and Russell $ 62,383 Ottawa $ 80,835 Renfrew $ 52,326 Pembroke $ 43,290 Ontario $ 60,594 Chart 5.1.4: Average Household Incomes Across Eastern Ontario (2005) 26

28 5.2 Sources of Income Earnings Income: As is shown in the following chart, Ontario as a whole draws more than three-quarters (78.7 per cent) of its income from employment earnings. Only two Eastern Ontario communities (the City of Ottawa and the United Counties of Prescott and Russell) receive this share of income from earnings. Of 24 jurisdictions analysed, 14 receive less than 70 per cent of income through employment earnings. In some cases, the proportion of earnings income is lower than the provincial average by nearly 30 per cent. Examples are Haliburton and Pembroke (50.6 and 60.1 per cent respectively). The county averages mask significant variations within their borders. For example, in Frontenac County (once the City of Kingston is removed from the census data and treated separately), South Frontenac derives 78.0 per cent of income from earnings while Frontenac Islands is at 73.7 per cent, Central Frontenac is 59.7 per cent, and North Frontenac is at 36.3 per cent. (In North Frontenac, 30.2 per cent of income is from government transfers.) On average, Eastern Ontario residents receive a smaller share of their annual income from (employment) earnings that does the average resident of Ontario. In other words, Eastern Ontario is more heavily reliant on government transfers than other parts of the province. Sources of Income Across Eastern Ontario (2000) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Northumberland Peterborough Peterboroug... Hastings Quinte West Belleville Lennox and... Ontario Haliburton Kawartha Lakes Prince Edward Frontenac Kingston Leeds and G... Gananoque Brockville Prescott Lanark Smiths Falls Stormont, D... Earnings Government Transfers Other Money Chart 5.2.1: Sources of Income Across Eastern Ontario (2000) Cornwall Prescott an... Ottawa Renfrew Pembroke 27

29 Government Transfers: While the Province derives only 9.8 per cent of its income from government transfers (which could be pensions, disability payments or other forms of social assistance), every community in Eastern Ontario except the City of Ottawa receives a significantly larger share of income from government transfers. While Ottawa receives just 7.4 per cent of income from government transfers, other Eastern Ontario communities range from just over 12 per cent (Lanark and Frontenac) to more than 20 per cent (Haliburton and Prescott). Most of Eastern Ontario is extremely dependent on government transfers; communities such as Haliburton (23.2 per cent), Prescott (23.1 per cent) and Pembroke (20.4 per cent) are examples of the most dependent communities. However, 12 of the 24 jurisdictions below receive at least 15 per cent of their income from government transfers. Chart Sources of Income Across Eastern Ontario (2000) Other Jurisdiction Earnings Government Transfers Money Income Ontario Haliburton Kawartha Lakes Northumberland Peterborough Peterborough (City) Hastings Quinte West Belleville Lennox and Addington Prince Edward Frontenac Kingston Leeds and Grenville Gananoque Brockville Prescott Lanark Smiths Falls Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Cornwall Prescott and Russell Ottawa Renfrew Pembroke Chart Sources of Income for Eastern Ontario Communities (2000) 28

30 Jurisdiction Earnings Government Transfers Other Money Income Ontario Haliburton Kawartha Lakes Northumberland Peterborough Peterborough (City) Hastings Quinte West Belleville Lennox and Addington Prince Edward Frontenac Kingston Leeds and Grenville Gananoque Brockville Prescott Lanark Smiths Falls Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Cornwall Prescott and Russell Ottawa Renfrew Pembroke Chart 5.2.2: Sources of Income Across Eastern Ontario By Type (2000)

31 5.3 Influence of Urban-Rural Relationships on Earnings and Income Several analysts of urban-rural relationships (including Michael Porter of Harvard University) have suggested that rural areas located next to urban areas tend to see rising incomes as higher wages from the urban areas drive wages up in the rural area or draw commuters from the rural to the urban areas for those higher wages. Often, the rule of thumb for the distance over which this effect takes place is minutes travelling time. If this phenomenon is in effect in Eastern Ontario, higher wages should be visible in the rural areas near the urban areas. When, as in Chart 5.2.1, earnings data for Eastern Ontario are organized geographically west to east with more northern communities inserted within the general 401 corridor structure, it is clear that the Greater Toronto Area and Ottawa are high income communities at the boundaries of Eastern Ontario. Graphically at least, earnings levels appear to decline with distance from the GTA but less so with distance from Ottawa. Like the other small cities in Eastern Ontario, the City of Kingston, does not appear to exert significant positive influence on surrounding rural areas. Average Personal Earnings Across Eastern Ontario County values include separated cities, also shown separately (all persons with earnings 2000) Toronto Pickering Ajax Oshawa South Lake Kawartha Lakes Haliburton Northumberland Peterborough Peterborough (City) Hastings Quinte West Belleville Prince Edward Lennox & Addington Frontenac Kingston Leeds & Grenville Gananoque Brockville Lanark Smiths Falls SDG Cornwall Prescott and Russell Ottawa Renfrew Pembroke Ontario Chart Average Personal Earnings Across Eastern Ontario in Relation to Major Urban Centres 30

32 5.4 Persistent and Fluctuating Incidence of Low Income in Eastern Ontario The map excerpt from the Senate Report on Poverty, Understanding Freefall: The Challenge of the Rural Poor (December 2006) shown above highlights the existence of areas of both persistent incidence of low income and areas of fluctuating incidence of low incomes in Eastern Ontario. Areas of persistent low incomes (blue) and areas of fluctuating incidence (grey) are slightly more prevalent in Eastern Ontario than in other parts of southern Ontario. 31

33 5.4. Municipal Tax Bases Municipal tax bases (primarily property taxes) are the revenue streams from which local governments deliver a wide range of public services to residents of their jurisdictions. The relative proportions of taxes drawn from commercial, industrial and residential taxes indicate how dependent any particular community is on one particular type of tax revenue; as a result, these proportions also influence the municipality s ability to pay for services. The tax rates used, in combination with assessment values, determine the amount of tax any householder or business is expected to pay. As a result, the rates are a key factor in determining the attractiveness of a community to either potential new residents or businesses. In Eastern Ontario, the proportion of municipal taxes coming from residential property taxes is very high, in large measure because (at least in rural areas) of the challenges the region faces in attracting and growing commercial and industrial enterprises. This raises affordability issues for households in the region as well as making it difficult for local governments to fund annual operating costs for municipal services or maintain physical infrastructure County Tax Base As shown in the following chart ( ), total county government assessment for Eastern Ontario is $46 billion. This amounts to about $1 million dollars of taxable assessment per square kilometre. In comparison to the 15 counties of Western Ontario, Eastern Ontario has a modest tax base from which to work. Western Ontario s taxable assessment per square kilometre is $2.5 million. Although comprehensive data is not currently available to permit comparisons to all Eastern Ontario s urban areas, data is available for Kingston and Ottawa. The assessment per square kilometre in Kingston is $17.5 million; in Ottawa, it is $26.5 million. The proportion of property tax assessment drawn from the residential component is, on average, per cent. For all counties, more than 90 per cent of total assessment is from the residential component. In other words, commercial and industrial assessment does not account for even 10 per cent of total assessment in any county of the region. In some cases (Frontenac, Haliburton, and Peterborough), commercial and industrial assessment accounts for less than five per cent of the total While comparable data is not yet available for most other communities in Ontario, Vancouver s business (commercial and industrial) community accounts for 16 per cent of the assessment base but pays 48 per cent the municipal taxes (2007). Source: 32

34 Commercial/I ndustrial Assessment % Commercial/ Industrial Assessment Residential % Residential County Tax Base (2003 data) Total Tax Base Assessment Assessment Haliburton 2,961,054,905 96,643,854 2,864,411, Kawartha Lakes 5,484,232, ,830,406 5,137,402, Peterborough 5,215,260, ,726,136 4,981,534, Northumberland 4,937,440, ,904,887 4,472,535, Hastings 2,318,767, ,419,155 2,178,348, Prince Edward 1,709,081, ,734,413 1,598,347, Lennox & Addington 2,203,396, ,789,700 1,987,606, Frontenac 2,091,815,825 32,991,195 2,058,824, Leeds & Grenville 4,519,302, ,557,344 4,264,744, Lanark 3,320,287, ,953,678 3,071,333, Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry 3,593,988, ,211,391 3,303,777, Prescott and Russell 3,706,197, ,534,252 3,356,662, Renfrew 4,342,247, ,836,949 3,998,410, Eastern Ontario Average 46,403,073,353 3,129,133,360 43,273,939, Commercial/In dustrial Assessment % Commercial/ Industrial Assessment Residential % Residential County Tax Base (2003 data) Total Tax Base Assessment Assessment Kingston 7,885,854,410 1,258,579,411 6,627,274, Ottawa 73,685,974,192 13,182,213,168 60,503,761, Pickering 8,366,679,385 1,296,684,676 7,069,994, Toronto 276,570,156,009 54,232,767, ,337,389, % Residential Assessment % Commercial/ Industrial Assessment Sources of Municipal Tax Revenue Across Eastern Ontario (2003) Haliburton Kawartha Lakes Peterborough Northumberland Hastings Prince Edward Lennox & Addington Frontenac Leeds & Grenville Lanark Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Prescott and Russell Renfrew Eastern Ontario Average Chart Percentage of the Municipal Tax Base Coming from Commercial/Industrial versus Residential Sources, by county and Eastern Ontario. (Source: the EOWC Future Directions Report) 33