Energy Efficiency Potential Study. Board Presentation - December 6, 2011

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1 Energy Efficiency Potential Study Board Presentation - December 6, 2011

2 Overview of Presentation Energy Efficiency Progress Why Invest in Energy Efficiency? Potential Study Program Drivers Study Parameters Baseline Forecast Areas of Potential Savings PROGRAM DRIVERS Beyond the Potential Study What s Achievable LADWP Plan & Recommendations AREAS OF POTENTIAL SAVINGS 2

3 Energy Efficiency: A Smart Investment Customers save money by using less energy Reduces amount of energy needed to meet customer demand Reduces City s carbon footprint (GHG emissions) by displacing fossil fuel Avoids additional costs required for transmission and distribution Creates local jobs REDUCES CARBON FOOTPRINT CREATES LOCAL JOBS 3

4 Low Cost of Energy Efficiency The least expensive kilowatt is the one never generated * Data as of November 2011 Avoided cost of Energy Efficiency includes the blended cost of gas fired and renewable generation of 8.5 cents/kwh; does not capture avoided fixed costs of capacity, like distribution and integration costs. 4

5 Purpose of Energy Efficiency Potential Study Provides independent and unbiased assessment of energy efficiency potential among LADWP customers Evaluates possible energy savings through LADWP and other funding sources (such as American Recovery and Reinvestment Act) Identifies most cost-effective, energy-efficient technologies and measures EVALUATES ENERGY SAVINGS UNBIASED ASSESSMENT 5

6 UPDATE THE IRP Beyond Potential Study Results Considering our realities and constraints we put together our Energy Efficiency Program Recommendation to: DETERMINE RESOURCES NEEDED Update the Integrated Resource Plan & 10-year targets for California Energy Commission Determine resources needed to implement the EE Program 6

7 Energy Efficiency Program Drivers Customer Needs Technology Advances Reasonable Incentives Market Transformation Adequate Resources Outreach Regulatory Standards Other Drivers: Budget constraints Underfunded/volatile funding levels New approach to funding Availability of grants and other external subsidies Peak vs. off-peak savings potential Staffing levels/hiring freeze 7

8 Energy Efficiency Progress to Date In 2006, LADWP set goal of 10% energy savings over 10 years Progress to date is less that we d like: 3.1% in 5 years Savings (Net GWh) $14 $ GWh 58 GWh Actual 1,018 GWh 602 GWh 753 GWh $68 $70 $44 $ Gwh 1,403 GWh $50 1,190 GWh $87 1,673 GWh 1,788 GWh 1,549 GWh Projected 1,898 GWh 2,119 GWh 2,012 GWh $97 $95 $99 $96 $100 $ Expenditures ($M) EE Expenditures ($million) Cumulative Energy Savings Net GWh 8

9 Annual Energy Savings We are not on Target to meet 10% by Annual Energy Savings Net GWh Actual Projected

10 LADWP Follows Strict Protocols to Measure & Verify Energy Efficiency In-House Reviews: Conduct pre- and post-installation inspections 3 rd -Party Reviews (AB2021) Since 2003, we have received independent measurement and verification of energy savings Revising 3rd-party review to reflect new evaluation component in collaboration with California Energy Commission. Expect to develop new external review in 1 st Quarter,

11 The Potential Study Covers Baseline energy efficiency forecast Energy use forecast by customer sector Technical & economic potential of energy savings based on type of use and customer sector Achievable Savings (Net Savings & Peak Demand Savings) Realistic achievable potential Base Program (assumes LADWP pays 50% of cost to upgrade to highest level of efficiency) Advanced Program (assumes LADWP pays 100% of cost to upgrade to highest level of efficiency) 11

12 Factors in Baseline Forecast Changes in customer base Changes in building codes Efficiency standards of appliances APPLIANCE EFFICIENCY STANDARDS Conservation that occurs naturally Trends in market saturation of appliances Does not include future utility programs MARKET TRENDS 12

13 Changes Affecting Baseline Forecast Since 2006 Slow down of economy Technological changes in appliances/equipment Televisions Heat pump water heaters LED lamps Adoption of new lighting & appliance standards effective Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) AB 1109 (Huffman Bill) National Consensus Appliance Agreements Act (INCAAA) 13

14 Baseline Energy Use Forecast With no spending on energy efficiency measures, energy consumption expected to rise 10.6% between (1% annually) 12.0% 10.0% 9.6% 10.8% 9.3% % Change Average Growth Rate 10.6% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% Residential Commercial Industrial Total 14

15 Top Energy Uses by Customer Sector Residential 7,677 GWh Commercial 13,156 GWh Industrial 2,300 GWh 15

16 Key Findings: Achievable Net Energy Savings Potential to save 8.5% energy in next 10 years Energy Savings As % of baseline forecast Savings as % of Baseline Forecast 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1.2% 0.8% Base Program 3.6% Advanced Program 5.2% 6.5% 8.5% In GWh Base Program Advanced Program Base Program Advanced Program Baseline includes savings from program accomplishments in prior years. Projected savings only include new measures. Savings come after codes, standards, and naturally occurring conservation. GWh Savings 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,161 1,626 1,

17 Key Findings: Peak Demand Savings Peak Energy Savings As % of baseline forecast 6.0% 6% 5% 4.5% Potential for up to 6% savings during peak periods 4% 3% 2% 1% 0.4% 0.7% 2.4% 3.5% 0% In MW in GWh Base Program Advanced Program

18 Key Findings: Commercial Sector shows highest potential for savings with biggest opportunities in lighting Share of Energy Use Industrial 9% Residential 34% Commercial 57% Share of Cumulative Energy Savings by * Industrial 4% Residential 28% Commercial 68% *Based on Advanced Program 18

19 NEXT STEPS Next Steps: Determining What s Achievable for LADWP Take real-world constraints into account Assess current program portfolio and recommend changes RECOMMEND AND IDENTIFY Identify biggest EE opportunities based on current budget and savings Show cost comparison of Potential Study findings with LADWP Recommendation Recommend energy saving target and identify required resources 19

20 LADWP Recommendations for Savings: Residential Customers Areas of achievable savings from new and existing programs through 2020 Existing Programs: Consumer Rebate Refrigerator Recycling Low-Income Refrigerator Exchange New Programs Low-Income Weatherization Whole-House Approach -Rebate Program -Audits for High Users Residential Lighting Education & Outreach 20

21 LADWP Recommendations for Savings: Commercial & Industrial Customers Areas of achievable savings from new and existing programs through 2020 Existing Programs: Commercial Lighting Efficiency Offer Chiller Efficiency Refrigeration Custom Performance New Construction Incentive Energy Efficiency Loans Energy Audits Technical Assistance New Programs: Retro-commissioning Rebates LAUSD Efficiency Program Non-profit Energy Conservation Program HVAC Rebate Program Thermal Energy Storage Rebate Program Accelerated City Lighting Program Business Lighting Direct Install On-bill Financing 21

22 Potential Savings for All Customers 2,500 2,000 2,161 GWh Savings in (GWh) 1,500 1,000 1,626 GWh 1,517 GWh INDUSTRIAL COMMERCIAL RESIDENTIAL Base Program Advanced Program Budget 22

23 Areas of Potential Savings: Residential Customers Savings in (GWh) Base Program Advanced Program Budget

24 Areas of Potential Savings: Commercial Customers Savings in (GWh) Base Program Advanced Program Budget

25 Areas of Potential Savings: Industrial Customers Savings in (GWh) Base Program Advanced Program Budget

26 Areas of Highest Potential Savings by Customer Sector LADWP Recommends Advanced Program Sector Type of Use Budgeted* Potential Study: Base Program 10-Year Savings (GWh) LADWP Recommended (Advance Program) Commercial Interior Lighting Cooling Exterior Lighting Ventilation Residential Interior Lighting Electronics Appliances Industrial Motors *LADWP budgeted savings subject to change after rate case considered 26

27 LADWP Recommends 8.5% Energy Saving Target Over 10 Years Potential Study Findings Energy Savings Advanced Program: 8.5% Costs $1.25 billion Base Program: 6.5% $0.93 billion LADWP Plan recommends 8.5% over 10 years Projected Cost: $1.25 billion 27

28 Questions or Comments? 28

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