Small or medium-scale focused research project (STREP) FP7-SMARTCITIES-2013 ICT Optimizing Energy Systems in Smart Cities

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1 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 1 Small or medium-scale focused research project (STREP) FP7-SMARTCITIES-2013 ICT Optimizing Energy Systems in Smart Cities District Information Modeling and Management for Energy Reduction DIMMER Project Duration: Grant Agreement number: Collaborative Project WP1 IREN D1.4 Energy saving potential: report on existing technologies and methodologies Prepared by DIMMER Collaboration Submission date resubmitted Due date Nature of the deliverable R P D O Dissemination level PU PP RE CO Project Coordinator: Prof. Enrico Macii, Politecnico di Torino Tel: Fax: E mail: enrico.macii@polito.it Project website address:

2 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 2 REVISION HISTORY Date Version Author/Contributor Comments 28 Jul D Appolonia, Andrea Podestà Initial version with report structure 22 Aug Arup, Richard Mizzi Additions as track changes to sections 1.1.3, 3.3, 4.2, 5.2, Appendix 28 Aug Arup, Richard Mizzi Additions as track changes to Sep D Appolonia, Andrea Podestà Additions to chapter 1 and 2 integration and comments on sections 1.1.3, 3.3, 4.2, 5.2, Appendix 5 Sep IREN, Federico Boni Castagnetti Additions to chapter Sep Fraunhofer, Alexandr Krylovskiy Additions to chapter 4 20 Sep University of Manchester, Additions to paragraph Pierluigi Mancarella 28 Sep D Appolonia, Andrea Podestà Homogenisation of the contributions, 30 Sep Iren Final review 30 Apr D Appolonia, Giorgio Bonvicini Initial version of rev. 1 with report structure 30 Apr Arup, Richard Mizzi Additions as track changes and comments to May Polito, Amos Ronzino Contribution to section May Arup, Richard Mizzi Contribution to section May D Appolonia, Giorgio Bonvicini Updates to section 1, 2, 3, May Polito, Vittorio Verda Contributions to sections May University of Manchester (with comments and feedback from Arup), Eduardo Alejandro Martinez Cesena and Pierluigi Mancarella New Section May Arup, Richard Mizzi Minor amendments and comments. Changes to section 4.2. Deleted appendix. 12 May AGMA, Sarah Davies Minor amendments and comments regarding homogenisation of May Arup, Richard Mizzi Changes made to preserve confidentiality for public version of report 14 May D Appolonia, Giorgio Bonvicini Homogeneisation of the contributions 18 May ISMB, Paolo Brizzi Deliverable review

3 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 3 COPYRIGHT Copyright 2013 DIMMER Consortium consisting of This document may not be copied, reproduced, or modified in whole or in part for any purpose without written permission from the DIMMER Consortium. In addition to such written permission to copy, reproduce, or modify this document in whole or part, an acknowledgement of the authors of the document and all applicable portions of the copyright notice must be clearly referenced. All rights reserved.

4 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Revision History... 2 Copyright... 3 Table of Contents... 4 List of Figures... 7 List of Tables... 8 Abbreviations... 9 Definitions Executive summary Introduction Energy efficiency within Districts Energy efficiency at building level Energy efficiency at distribution level Electric networks Gas networks District heating networks Connectors among energy networks Energy efficiency and urban planning Energy Efficient Cities initiative [EECi] Planning for Energy Efficient Cities (PLEEC) European Initiative on Smart Cities ICT as a tool to energy efficiency ICT enabled equipment benefits Monitoring and control Energy Service Optimization Common features and issues on ICT systems implementation Benchmarking IPMVP: energy saving measurement Overview on Energy saving potential The European Union case EU-27 energy efficiency potential The 2020 Climate and Energy Package... 34

5 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential The Energy Efficiency Plan The Energy Efficiency Directive Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in The 2030 framework for climate and energy policies The Italian case Energy efficiency potential in Italy The UK case Energy efficiency potential in the UK The Turin case Energy Efficiency Potential in Turin Municipal Sector Energy Efficiency Potential in Turin Commerce/Services Sector Energy Efficiency Potential in Turin Residential Sector The Manchester case Greater Manchester Sustainable Energy Action Plan Energy Efficiency Potential in Manchester Renewables and Low-Carbon Technologies Energy Efficiency Potential in Manchester Residential Sector Energy Efficiency Potential in Manchester Commerce/Services Sector Districts overview Turin district Manchester district District Energy efficiency potential Turin district District System Description: District Heating Network Energy Savings potential opportunities: better management of the heat exchangers Energy Savings potential opportunities: peak demand management and reduction Methodology: Model structure for the implementation of the DIMMER strategies Manchester district District System Description: High voltage electricity and district heating networks Evidence Base: Energy efficiency assessment methodology development Methodology: new enhanced definition of district environmental efficiency and model structure for the implementation of the DIMMER strategies at the district level Energy saving and dynamic environmental efficiency potential opportunities Conclusions... 86

6 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 6 References... 88

7 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 7 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 0.1: Process for visualisation of the district character Figure 1.1: Example of payment into an Allowable Solutions fund for energy efficiency measures Figure 1.2: Roadmap for Smart Cities Figure 3.1: Evolution of the energy efficiency index in Italy in Figure 3.2: UK final energy consumption per capita compared against carbon plan scenarios: Figure 3.3: 2020 Energy Efficiency Marginal Abatement Cost Curve Figure 3.4: GHG emissions trend and targets Figure 3.5: Breakdown by sector of GHG emissions in GM area Figure 3.6: Contribution of each project in pipeline in GM area to GHG emissions reduction Figure 4.1: Turin Polito s District Figure 4.2: Building selection in Turin district Figure 4.3: Oxford Road Corridor Figure 4.4: Manchester Oxford Road Corridor selected buildings Figure 5.1: Location of the substations in the Politecnico district Figure 5.2: Building heating system PFD Figure 5.3: Indoor temperature distribution Figure 5.4: Thermal substation data gathering Figure 5.5: Limitation valve s operation volumetric flow over time graph (Image from Siemens RVD 230 Manual) Figure 5.6: Total and individual heat demand of ten buildings with peak demand concentrated at the same hour Figure 5.7: Time shifting example on invented data Figure 5.8: Time shifting example on real data Figure 5.9: Heat exchanger operation at different outdoor temperatures Figure 5.10: Set point reaching at different outdoor temperatures Figure 5.11: Clean VS packed heat exchanger set point reaching Figure 5.12: Schematic of the heating system in the buildings Figure 5.13: Energy balance of a node Figure 5.14: Thermal load and electric load for a combined cycle as the function of the gas turbine load Figure 5.15: Schematic of the finite difference model of a water storage system Figure 5.16: Numerical results and experimental temperature measurements for Politecnico storage tanks Figure 5.17: Evolution of the calculated internal temperature for two different request profiles Figure 5.18: Load profile for the thermal plant applying two thermal profiles for the users... 74

8 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 8 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Energy balance of the European Union in 2012 (IEA). Values in ktoe (kilo tons oil equivalent) Table 2: Energy consumption in the residential and commercial/public services sector in the European Union in Table 3: Total energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for EU Table 4: Industrial energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for EU Table 5: Transportation energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for EU Table 6: Household energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for EU Table 7: Tertiary energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for EU Table 8: Total energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for Italy Table 9: Industrial energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for Italy Table 10: Transportation energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for Italy Table 11: Household energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for Italy Table 12: Tertiary energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for Italy Table 13: Total energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for UK Table 14: Industrial energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for UK Table 15: Transportation energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for UK Table 16: Household energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for UK Table 17: Tertiary energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for UK Table 18: Expected Results for Turin Municipal Sector Table 19: Expected Results for Turin Commerce/Services Sector Table 20: Expected Results for Turin Residential Sector Table 21: Expected Results for Greater Manchester Supply Actions Table 22: Expected Results for Greater Manchester Residential Sector Table 23: Expected Results for Greater Manchester Commerce/Services Sector Table 24: Energy efficiency potential of DIMMER in the Manchester district

9 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 9 ABBREVIATIONS Acronym Full name BAT Best Available Technologies BMS Building Management System BREEAM Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Methodology C2C Capacity to Customers CCS Carbon Capture and Storage CHP Combined Heat and Power CMFT Central Manchester University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust CSP Concentrating Solar Power DH District Heating DHW Domestic Hot Water EC European Commission EE-MACC Energy Efficiency Marginal Abatement Cost Curve EEA European Energy Agency EECi Energy Efficient Cities initiative EHP Electric Heat Pumps EMR Electricity Market Reform EMS Energy Management System ENW Electricity North West EPBD Energy Performance of Buildings Directive ESCO Energy Service Company EU European Union ETS Emissions Trading System GHG Greenhouse Gas GM Greater Manchester GRP Gross Domestic Product H2020 Horizon 2020 HPI High Policy Intensity HVAC Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning ICT Information and Communication Technologies IEQ Indoor Environmental Quality IEA International Energy Agency IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN Body) IPPC Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (EU Directive) ktoe kilotons oil equivalent IPMVP International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol LCN Low Carbon Network LEED Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design LPI Low Policy Intensity M&V Measurement and Verification NOP Normal Open Point ODEX Energy Efficiency Index

10 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 10 O&M PEC PLEEC PLC PV SCADA SET-Plan SME2 TES UK UMIST Operation and Maintenance Primary Energy Consumption Planning for Energy Efficient Cities Programmable Logical Controller Photovoltaic Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition Strategic Energy Technology Plan Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Thermal Energy Storage United Kingdom University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology DEFINITIONS Term District Primary Energy Secondary Energy Full name Subject or pilot area of enquiry Primary energy is an energy form found in nature that has not been subjected to any conversion or transformation process. It is energy contained in raw fuels, and other forms of energy received as input to a system. Primary energy can be non-renewable or renewable. Among non renewable there are coals, crude oil, natural gas, natural nuclear feedstock. Among renewable there are solar energy, wind, hydro, biomasses, geothermal and tidal energy. Secondary energy is an energy form as it is used by final users. In energy statistics energy secondary energy forms are normally grouped as electricity, heat and fuels.

11 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As stated within the Description of work, Task 1.4 of the DIMMER Project aims at providing a first overview of the potential of DIMMER to increase energy efficiency, first with reference to energy efficiency in districts in general, and then with reference to two pilot sites, namely Turin and Manchester districts. Urban districts comprise the majority of the population in the European Union and include residential areas, commercial activities, public services and industrial activities, and are responsible for a large part of the overall energy consumption. As a result, at the European level, districts (i.e., households and services) have the largest potential for reducing overall energy needs through efficiency. However this is currently the most challenging sector in which to deliver change at scale; new solutions would be needed to facilitate energy efficiency at the district level. In light of this, this report begins by describing the main techniques and technologies that can be implemented throughout a district, starting at the building level and including the energy utility networks, which in combination make up an approach to an inclusive examination at the urban level and its planning. Although improvements in energy efficiency are traditionally achieved by addressing energy issues (e.g. buildings insulation, plants efficiency, and so forth), improved energy management brought by intelligent operation algorithms informed by Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) (e.g., sensors and meters coupled with proper energy management analysis tools) can provide a substantial contribution to energy efficiency: ICT systems allow a much deeper understanding of the behaviour of energy systems, thus allowing their better modelling and providing important indications on the most effective actions for improvement. At the same time, modern technologies provide a fundamental aid for the optimal O&M of energy systems: for instance, it can allow prompt detection of anomalous consumption of components, indicating failures, wear or misuse. However, as discussed in this report, the deployment of more and more pervasive sensors and ICT systems can result in some issues, such as for instance the loss of control of too many measured parameters and automated demand-response, and serious interoperability problems for users brought about by vertical hardware suites and software components (typically preferred by suppliers) governed by proprietary protocols and systems. In this report, an overview of the energy efficiency potential in Europe is provided; placing particular focus on the specific conditions and regulatory frameworks of Turin, Italy and Manchester, UK. The analysis shows the vicinity of the potential energy efficiency improvements in the selected cases, although the economic structure and the climate conditions are different. The final part of the report narrows the attention on the two pilot sites, so that the two situations are described and the main actions in the pilots are presented. It is worth noting that the two demonstrations are highly complementary. The first (Turin) takes knowledge developed in SEEMPUBS and other European projects and applies it to specific technologies in a new spatial and building typology context the second (Manchester) explores the potential for integrated technologies to enhance the ability to utilise district modelling and visualisation technologies to reshape the energy profile and behaviours of a district. In Turin the activities will be entirely dedicated to the local district heating (DH) network, where ICT systems will be set in order to improve performance of DH substation thanks to a better detection of maintenance need, thus allowing an efficiency improvement to the optimal heat exchange between network and building. ICT will also be used to monitor internal comfort conditions and to assess which is the lowest heat flow needed to keep them. Last but not least, an action determining a higher involvement of users will be shifting of peak heat delivery in different buildings, which will allow reducing peak power demand and broadening the peaks thus offering a smoother operation of the system. In Manchester, the activities will be focused on a smart management of the integrated electricity, heat and gas systems at district level. More specifically, a new approach to dynamic environmental efficiency assessment for a district has been proposed, which recognises the environmental and economic benefits, as well as the challenges associated with the

12 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 12 trading of different energy vectors between buildings that can potentially be captured in a Smart Grid context. According to this approach, the most effective interventions within the district can be identified, so that the intelligent management of energy exchanges provided by DIMMER facilitates the generation of energy (e.g., heat and electricity) in the most attractive locations and its consumption in the buildings that most need it. In this context, the enhanced communications and intelligent energy management provided by DIMMER is expected to improve the effectiveness of other energy efficiency measures (e.g., installation of low carbon and renewable technologies) by more than 30%.

13 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 13 INTRODUCTION The DIMMER project is, as stated in the final proposal, a web-service oriented, open platform with capabilities of realtime district level data processing and visualization. Thanks to the web-service interface, applications can be developed to monitor and control energy consumption and production from renewable sources. An application can be developed to visualize real-time energy utilization leading to a considerable educative impact. In this task the energy efficiency potential in districts, buildings and grids has been examined and innovative solutions have been suggested based on the use of sensors analysed in T1.2. The importance of having a clear understanding of the energy systems and networks in the district, in addition to the building characteristics and materials of construction (all aspects that contribute to the energy signature of the district), is shown in the figure below. In particular, one of the main activities of the Project for which a deep understanding of the energy systems is fundamental is the middleware being developed in WP2. Figure 0.1: Process for visualisation of the district character As a general introduction, it is worth noting that the present document is the first public deliverable of the DIMMER project and this necessarily leads to a partial overlap with other deliverables. In particular, in order to make this document as much as possible self-consistent, the description of the two Districts and that of the efficiency interventions implemented in each of them within the framework of the Project are recapped, although they have already been described in detail in previous DIMMER documents (in particular Chapter 4 partially overlaps with D1.1). Chapter 1 provides an overview of the most important techniques and technologies to improve energy efficiency in districts, starting from the building level and going up to the networks and to the urban planning level. Chapter 2 describes the potential of ICT as a tool to improve energy efficiency, herein including the most important applications of ICT for energy efficiency, the typical features and issues for ICT systems applied to energy systems and related good practices and a description of the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP). Chapter 3 provides an overview of the energy efficiency potential and of the efforts done in this direction in the EU and in the Countries involved in the DIMMER Project, both at national level (Italy and UK) and at local scale (Turin and Manchester).

14 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 14 Chapter 4 includes a description of the districts selected for implementing the demonstrators of the DIMMER Project in Turin and in Manchester. The case studies were selected on the basis of heterogeneity, complementariness and replicability as outlined in the project proposal. Concerning the complementariness of the case studies, the two sites will have different characteristics both in terms of energy distribution as well as building usage, materials, construction period and energy performance. A special mention is required for the energy networks. More specifically regarding real-time data collection, focus is applied to the heat network (i.e. district heating) for the Turin district, while Manchester will concentrate on electricity and gas distribution. For both sites, access to historic energy and utility consumption data in general is available. Chapter 5 provides an assessment of the energy efficiency potential of the demonstrators, describing the interventions to be done at their level of definition in May For each demonstrator, both a description of the methodological approach and an estimation of the potential energy savings from the implementation of the DIMMER concept are presented. Finally, Chapter 6 includes the conclusions of this report.

15 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential ENERGY EFFICIENCY WITHIN DISTRICTS In the following, urban districts are considered as densely populated urban areas, with predominant residential, residential/commercial and mixed urban land use, therein excluding large industrial complexes which often are adjacent to districts and sparsely urbanized and rural areas. Urban districts consume enormous amounts of energy, also without considering within them the industrial energy consumption. In the European Union about 74% 1 of the population lives in urban areas. In the past decades, energy efficiency improvements in industrial processes and social-economic evolutions, which led to a substantial deindustrialization of European economies, drastically changed the energy uses. As a result, energy consumption in industrial activities was overcome by both civil energy uses (residential plus commercial uses) and by transportation. Although analyses on energy consumption dividing uses among urban and rural areas are not commonly done, an analysis of energy balances of countries provides useful hints. The Table 1 shows the IEA synthesis 2 energy balance of the European Union. Urban districts keep together the greatest part of civil (residential and tertiary) energy consumption, as well as relevant parts of industrial consumption (several small to medium industrial and handicraft activities are included within the urban texture) and of transportation energy consumption. Within this context, the importance of districts in the challenge of reducing energy consumption, promoting the development of clean energy and abating the dependence on fossil fuels, is crucial. Energy is used for a broad variety of needs and services: this broad variety can be however simplified in considering the primary energy, that is the natural energy source energy taken from nature for human use, final energy, i.e. the main categories of energy in the final use, and the energy vectors used for transporting energy. In terms of primary energy, the main energy sources are: Coals, whose use is currently limited in most of Europe, to thermoelectric energy production, co-generation and to some heavy industry processes (steelmaking and metallurgy); Oil, still the most important energy source, whose derived products are the predominant energy source for transportation and cover an important quote of energy needs for heating in the residential and commercial sector, as well as several industrial energy uses and thermoelectric power productions; Natural gas, whose use is steadily growing in substitution of coal and oil products in thermoelectric power production, for heating purposes in the civil sector and for several industrial uses. Its use in transportation is still limited, but growing; Nuclear energy, whose use is limited to electric production (very few plants are used for combined heat and power production) and whose use is decreasing; Waste and waste derived fuels, whose combustion provides significant portions of heat and electric power in several countries; Renewable energy sources, whose use is rapidly growing for distributed electricity production (small hydropower, wind, and solar in particular), for heat and combined heat and power production (geothermal, biomass) and for large size electric production (large hydropower) and transportation fuels (biomass). 1 Data from the World Bank statistics ( This international, not eurostat source is chosen to allow providing a consistent comparison among all countries and geographic areas of the world. 2

16 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 16 Table 1: Energy balance of the European Union in 2012 (IEA). Values in ktoe (kilo tons oil equivalent) In terms of final energy, the main categories of interest for a district are: Low temperature heat (below 100 C), used for space heating and domestic hot water (DHW) preparation mostly. This is the most important form of final energy used, and the one providing the largest possibilities of reducing energy use and substituting traditional sources with waste heat and renewable sources; Chill, mostly needed for space cooling and, to a much lesser extent, for refrigeration needs at residential, commercial and industrial level. Cooling needs are much larger within southern Europe, but large commercial and office buildings regularly need cooling even in cold climates; Mechanical force, needed to satisfy most of the common energy uses within residential, commercial, industrial and transportation. Such energy service is mostly provided by electricity and, in the case of transportation, by

17 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 17 fuels. The conversion efficiency from primary to final energy is strongly variable from case to case, ranging from 15-30% of vehicles engines to 55-58% of thermoelectric conversion in gas-fired combined cycle power plants. Other important categories of final energy are medium temperature heat (temperature between 100 and 500 C) and high temperature heat (above 500 C), but their use is mostly related to the industrial sector (the only exception is cooking in the civil sector, which however is almost negligible). Energy vectors are the forms in which energy is commonly transported: electricity and fuels and thermal energy vectors are the most important ones. Thermal energy vectors are those used in district heating and cooling. For district heating, hot water, superheated water and steam are the most common vectors used. In district cooling the typical vectors are cold water (for systems having heat exchangers only at the end uses), superheated water and steam (for systems having absorption chillers at the end users). The challenge of drastically reducing energy consumption in districts passes through different levels: the level of buildings, the level of distribution networks, which must be able to distribute energy more efficiently and recover waste energy and energy surpluses, and the urban planning. These three levels are described in the following three paragraphs. 1.1.Energy efficiency at building level Energy demand of buildings accounts roughly for 40% 3 of total energy demand within European Union. The improvement of efficiency performance of buildings is being one of the main targets of the European Union policies on energy. Energy efficiency is being pursued towards the reduction of demand in terms of space heating, ventilation, cooling, lighting, electric appliances and in terms of efficiency of energy transforming apparels (boilers for heating and domestic water preparation, heat pumps, electric appliances etc.). A further path is related to distributed energy generation at building level; this is not an energy efficiency measure but implies, indirectly, an improvement in network efficiency thanks to the reduction of the distance between producer and consumer, which reduces distribution and transmission losses that also in the best electric and district heating grids account for 5-10%. Residential Commercial and public services type ktoe % type ktoe % geothermal, solar etc % geothermal, solar etc 522 0% Coal % Coal % heat from district heating % biofuels and waste % Oil products % heat from district heating % biofuels and waste % Oil products % electricity % Natural gas % Natural gas % electricity % Total % Total % Table 2 shows an elaboration of the already mentioned IEA energy balance, limited to the residential sector and to the commercial and public services sector, the two main sectors represented within district. Residential Commercial and public services type ktoe % type ktoe % 3 Concerted Action EPBD website,

18 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 18 geothermal, solar etc % geothermal, solar etc 522 0% Coal % Coal % heat from district heating % biofuels and waste % Oil products % heat from district heating % biofuels and waste % Oil products % electricity % Natural gas % Natural gas % electricity % Total % Total % Table 2: Energy consumption in the residential and commercial/public services sector in the European Union in 2012 (elaboration from IEA data) This table shows that the largest part of energy used in buildings is thermal energy: fuels are used for this, as well as heat from district heating, renewable energies and firewood (wood is the main component, within these sectors, of the biofuels and waste category); also a large part of electricity is used for thermal uses: domestic hot water production, space heating through electric heaters and heat pumps, cooling. Cooling in particular is a main electric energy use in the commercial sector, whereas its importance in the residential sector is still relatively limited and diffused only in southern Europe. Thus, the predominant energy use at building level is space heating and cooling. Both needs are largely determined by the building envelope, the main element determining energy exchange between internal and external environments: buildings with reduced energy demand must necessarily have an efficient envelope, able to minimize heat exchange by transmission, to maximize solar gains in the cold seasons, to screen excess heat in the hottest periods, to exploit the thermal capacity of the building at best. These key elements obviously change in terms of qualitative and quantitative features, as well as in terms of relative importance, depending on the local climate. The second field of intervention for having more efficient buildings are active systems deputed to guarantee internal comfort: heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems are present in nearly all buildings and their efficiency in converting energy into the needed service varies. The way in which these systems are designed and operate and their components have a deep impact on the energy figure of buildings: active systems are those where sensors, actuators and distributed management systems play a major role. A third hardware field of energy efficiency in buildings is related to the use of distributed energy sources. Within this field, solar thermal systems, solar photovoltaic systems and micro-chp systems are the most important technological possibilities. Technical interventions on buildings are those determining the real consumption of the building; however, some important software interventions proved to be extremely effective in determining the increase of efficiency in buildings. Among these, aimed at providing a stronger engagement of owners and occupants of buildings in the challenge of abating energy consumption, are related to energy labeling of buildings, action coming from the white goods industry that aims at communicating the energy performance of a good to the future user in a simple way, without the need of a deep knowledge on energy themes. Energy labeling schemes on buildings were introduced in the EU legislation by the EU directive 2002/91 and then integrated by Directive 2010/31 and are now increasingly implemented in European Union and the energy certificate is becoming mandatory for all buildings and housing units throughout European Union. Aside this type of labeling, other kinds of third-party, voluntary certification schemes exist for environmental labeling of buildings (among all, LEED 4 and BREEAM 5 certification). 4

19 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 19 Energy labeling of buildings is working very well especially for space heating and domestic hot water preparation and in the residential sector, but not so well for other uses such as cooling. The main reason is related to the longer history of attempts for assessing correctly the real use of energy in colder climates and under well standardized conditions of use achieving results in good agreement with measured values of consumption. The difference among a calculation of consumption under standard conditions and the real consumption is not only due to possible over- or underestimation of parameters describing the building and its plants, but also to the differences between the standard conditions and the real ones, whose average values and statistical variations due to the type of activity in the commercial sector, to the possibilities of plant regulation, to the automation systems of HVAC systems, to the perceived comfort conditions are much less defined. This issue, the benchmarking of energy demand, comfort parameters, internal loads, crowding and other parameters influencing the energy behaviour of buildings will be crucial, in the next years, to be able in determining more precisely the typical values of energy demand of buildings and units with different end uses and in the cooling season, and to be able to classify the energy performance of buildings. The strategies for improving energy efficiency in buildings are different for renovation of buildings and for new buildings. The experimentations in the past decades and their development have developed several schemes of low consumption buildings. The most interesting, which are now driving policies on sustainable housing and construction in Europe, are the passive house concept (a very low energy consumption house, where energy need for space heating is below 15 kwh/m 2 year) and the quasi-zero energy building (i.e. a low energy consumption building whose residual energy demand is compensated by the energy production through active systems - solar, geothermal, etc. - are now driving the EU policies as regards the new buildings. Improving energy efficiency of existing buildings during renovation can reduce their consumption in a sensible way, although the final result can rarely achieve that on a new low energy building. The most important actions for increasing energy efficiency in buildings are: external envelope insulation, which is often possible during external renovation of facades and roofs. This can reduce losses through the envelope of two to five times on buildings without insulating layers; insulation of the internal side of external walls and roof during internal renovation. This intervention is less effective than external insulation since normally a larger number of thermal bridges remain, but the result is anyway effective; substitution of existing windows with new ones characterized by a high energy performance; renovation of heating, cooling and ventilation plants, which normally allows significant savings at a much lower cost than when renovating envelope; substitution of lighting systems and electric appliances with higher efficiency ones. Among the indicated interventions, those related to plants and electric systems are the ones where the development of sensors, actuators and ICT systems is introducing the deeper change and best opportunities for energy efficiency. 1.2.Energy efficiency at distribution level Within this paragraph energy distribution is discussed, as regards fixed networks: electricity, gas and district heating/cooling. Distribution of liquid and solid fuels commonly occurs via rail or road, with a few pipelines regarding oil products. Losses of fuel in these infrastructures are very limited under normal operation, and energy efficiency is determined by fuel/electricity consumption in transportation Electric networks 5

20 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 20 The European electric networks are among the most efficient in the world, with losses around 5.8% and values at Country level spanning from 3.1% (Slovakia) to 14.4% (Croatia) 6. Aside those due to failures, losses are due to unbalancing of reactive power consumption, to ohmic losses along the lines, to losses in transformation stations. In an efficient network, failures are quickly repaired, there is a careful management of reactive power though compensation systems and the best compromise is found between length of lines (tending to increase losses) and their capacity (overloaded lines have higher losses), lines voltage and voltage elevation/reduction passages (the highest the voltage, the lowest the losses, although this implies normally a larger number of transformation passages). Narrowing the distance between electricity production and consumption is an effective strategy to reduce losses, since ohmic and transformation losses are both reduced. In this sense, distributed power generation with small plants connected to the distribution grid at low voltage and electricity used by the producer-consumer (the so-called prosumer in the smart grid language) or by his closer neighbours is by itself an instrument to increase grid efficiency. The challenge for energy grids, and in particular of electric grids in the next future, is related to the development of smart grids: the rapidly growing electric production from distributed, unpredictable power sources such as solar or wind systems, whose production follows weather conditions and not power demand is stressing the traditional grid management practices and calls for new solutions. In smart grids, the control of grid stability will be managed thanks to an informatics network siding the traditional power grids, and calling both the operation of traditional plants and the operation of programmable power loads. New features of grids will occur, such as electricity buffers, production forecast systems linked to weather forecasts and dynamic pricing, favouring energy use in moments of high availability and low demand and discouraging consumption in situations of low production and high demand, with larger and less stable variations than today. In the development of smart grids, ICT is of a paramount importance, since an integrated approach aimed at predicting and following the electricity loads and the production from renewable sources, and at driving the operation of active components of the grid such as conventional energy production systems (e.g. micro-chp plants) or smart systems for charging electric vehicles, would lead to the minimization of energy exchanges with the grid Gas networks The largest supply areas of Europe for gas are the Northern Sea, former Soviet countries and North Africa. In gas networks large diameter, high pressure and gas speed pipelines connect the production areas to the use areas covering thousands of miles. Transmission pipelines are sided by ship gas transport, where natural gas is liquefied into LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) at cryogenic temperatures at shipping harbours, transported by dedicated ships and brought to gas phase again into receiving LNG terminals at arrival harbours, where it enters the transmission network. Transport of liquid gas is more expensive, in terms of energy and of cost than pipelines, but it allows the access to a larger number of possible suppliers thus reducing risks of price oscillations and gas availability (also due to geopolitical tensions). From the transmission network gas passes at local level in distribution networks, where pressure is reduced to low values and chemical additives are added to odorize gas and prevent safety issues. Losses due to leaks are minimal in gas networks, due to the very high care in avoiding and repairing them for safety reasons. Energy losses in transmission and distribution losses are due to gas compression at the production sites, gas pumping stations along the lines, gas free decompression without energy recovery at pressure reduction station. For LNG transportation, large energy inputs are needed for the liquefaction process at shipping harbours to bring gas at cryogenic temperatures and further losses occur from refrigeration systems on LNG carrier ships. Part of the liquefaction energy is normally recovered at regasification terminals at arrival harbours. 6 IEA statistics, OECD/IEA,

21 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 21 At the user side, pressure reduction normally occurs through simple lamination valves with no energy recovery. An emerging technology is the mechanical energy recovery from the pressure drop trough turboexpander systems 7 generating electricity, which is the only possible energy efficiency improvement possibility at district level in gas distribution networks District heating networks District heating networks bring heat from large production systems, where heat often comes as a by-product of industrial processes (waste incineration, refineries, cement plants, etc.) or of power generation, to the end users in districts. The heat carrier is normally hot water, superheated water or steam. Losses occur by heat transmission through pipes walls, by water or steam leaks due to holes on pipes, heat exchangers and fittings and, in case of steam systems, by condensate return lines and by damaged steam traps. In an efficient DH network, losses due to damages are limited by careful maintenance and losses due to thermal transmission are minimized thanks to high insulation levels of piping. In a well maintained DH network, losses are kept below 10% of thermal energy entered into the network. Aside improving maintenance, efficiency of district heating increases by maximising the ratio between the number of users and the length of the network. Transmission losses are commonly dependent on lines length and relatively independent from the demand (a small increase of losses, in absolute terms, occurs in high demand moments due to fact that in these periods the grid manager often increases delivery temperature), thus these losses tend to be percentually higher in periods with lower demand (typically in summer). Despite good maintenance, losses due to leaks in DH networks keep being a main problem also in the best cases. Typical strategies to detect leaks, put in place since long times, are related to colouring water flowing in DH pipes (this allows immediately detecting failures on heat exchangers, and permits a quicker detection of leaks along lines) and to measuring delivery and return flow rates. Efficiency reduction due to wear and aging of components in DH networks is one of the fields where ICT technologies and the availability of more precise sensors play a major role in improving energy efficiency. The installation of meters along networks to detect anomalies in flow rate, pressure and temperature is today much cheaper than in the past, with more precise measurements and powerful automatic monitoring systems able to detect anomalous behaviours and report them to the DH managers. In general, the improvement of these systems is one of the most important areas of technological development of DH systems. A further problem of efficiency loss within DH networks is related to fouling on heat exchangers. This problem is quite difficult to be detected without sensors on heat exchangers, but its effect is a serious efficiency reduction due to the reduction of thermal exchange efficiency. This is also an issue that can be detected through the deployment of a pervasive sensors network along the DH lines heat exchangers are present in a small number between the primary and secondary distribution networks, but there is at least one heat exchanger at the substation serving each end user. This problem is also one of the most important that are being investigated by the DIMMER Project, with particular reference to the Turin Demo. A large field of energy efficiency improvement along DH systems is related to shaving demand peaks. In the majority of DH systems, part of the heat comes from cheap waste heat sources (industries or power plants), which produce it as a byproduct at a certain rate regardless of the heat need of the city. Very often the waste heat sources are sufficient to cover a part of demand, but often the peak load has to be covered in a more expensive way through dedicated boilers. Thus, at network level, strategies that are effective in shaving peaks are related to mixing users with different heat demand profiles and hours to increase the use of waste heat. In several DH networks, among which Turin s one, heat storage systems are also present. 7 An example of turboexpander system being installed is in the Genova demonstrator of the EU Celsius research project,

22 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential Connectors among energy networks Energy networks are connected by transformations of energy: electricity is mostly produced by fuels, and in particular by natural gas, through thermoelectric systems converting fuel energy into heat and part of the heat into electricity. In cogeneration both electricity and waste heat are used. Electric heaters convert electricity into heat, and heat pumps can produce heat and chill from electricity with an extremely high conversion factor. A relatively new field of investigation, in a wider sense connected with the development of a smart grid, is related to the possibility of connecting the different energy networks present within a district electricity, gas and district heating through any of these technologies in order to be able to compensate or flatten a demand peak on one network by producing the needed service through the use of a alternative one. This is another field of investigation within the DIMMER project. There are several possibilities to put into relationship the different networks in a district. Most of them are related to the use of buffers to store the different forms of energy, and their need is increasingly important with the development of distributed energy production from unmanageable renewable energy sources and distributed micro-cogeneration. A non-exhaustive list of these possibilities, even if difficult to be evaluated in terms of overall effectiveness, includes: - Using heat pumps for feeding DH networks during DH demand peaks but out of electric peaks: in several DH systems one of the most important peaks occurs in the morning, when electricity demand is typically very low, thus electricity can be used in these moments to substitute peak gas boilers in feeding the DH system; - Exploiting the nearly contemporary peaks of cooling demand and PV production: this issue is quite natural, and far from being an issue of importance limited to a single district the widespread development of distributed PV generation in Italy and Spain strongly decreased in the past few years the power demand to thermoelectric plants in the daily peak in summer, which was the most difficult and expensive demand peak to be satisfied by the power grid until a few years before; - Developing DH systems to exploit waste heat to cover baseload only, and using distributed heat generators for covering peaks. This technique can offer customers very cheap heat when possible, leaving them the responsibility of being able to cover their demand peak in another way. This system can allow the development of new district heating systems with lower capital investment in places where heat was previously produced by distributed boilers (an example of this is the seed district heating system in the Islington Council, London); - Using solar thermal systems in homes served by DH systems, and selling the excess production to the grid to feed neighbours in case of overproduction (some examples of this are present in the Gothenburg DH system); - Exploiting smart electric water boilers for heating DHW at a higher temperature than usual during low electricity demand hours and avoiding the resistance to work during peak hours. This concept can be expanded to space heating with heat pumps, possibly coupled with heat buffers; - Exploiting CHP systems at the service of DH networks not only to serve the network itself, but also to support district electric substation; - Exploiting electric vehicles as an electric buffer, recharging them during low electricity demand times. 1.3.Energy efficiency and urban planning Urban planning is one of the keys for developing energy efficient districts: 1. because energy efficiency at building level is commonly achieved through urban planning tools, such as building codes and regulations on construction and renovation of buildings at municipal, regional and national level; 2. because also the way in which energy networks develop is defined through urban planning; 3. because the shape of a city, of a district or of a village influences its energy profile. A sustainable, energy efficient urban planning aims at easing choices and at orienting lifestyles of people to sustainable behaviours. In terms of energy, the shape and density of a city dramatically influences, in particular, the transportation

23 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 23 model. Sustainable, energy efficient mobility shall be based on public and electric transportation and on soft mobility (walking and cycling). The typical features of an energy efficient urban planning are: promotion of a compact urban development with few voids in the urban texture, a mixed land use with residential activities mixed with public services and commercial activities and the favouring of medium sized buildings. A compact urban development, with fast public transportation lines travelling on dedicated ways, is more efficient than sparse urban development since the higher inhabitants density allows to have shorter distances (favouring soft mobility) and permits to public transportation companies to serve more passengers on a less extensive network, thus allowing the economic viability of more frequent services and the use of more sustainable transportation systems with larger capacity: electric systems such as trains, metros, tramways, trolley buses become more convenient than traditional buses. In this model, cars must complement a main urban mobility demand satisfied by other means. Reduced distances also allow more sustainable possibilities for private motor vehicles, since with small distances the typical limitations of short range of electric vehicles are not a serious limit. A compact urban development has also some other energy advantages: networks, and especially district heating (and cooling, if it makes sense in the context) can serve more people with a shorter overall length, and this reduces losses and management complexity. A mixed land use allows to reduce the distance that people must cover for going to work and for daily needs (public services, entertainment, shops), thus favouring soft mobility and public transportation choices rather than the use of car. Medium sized buildings, with a few storeys and medium plant surface, have energy advantages both over individual homes (a smaller surface to volume ratio reduces thermal losses) and over large buildings (overheating problems are reduced, so that the need for air conditioning, mechanical plants and artificial lighting decreases). Urban planning approaches and their influence on increased energy efficiency are ultimately driven by energy policy set at EU, national and local levels. For example, the EU has made renewable energy, energy efficiency and measures to achieve a transition to a low carbon economy key priorities from a both policy and an investment perspective. The UK government has set a legally binding target of 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions (compared to those of 1990) by 2050, as it has been planned by the European Union in its whole. As part of this, the UK Carbon Plan sets out the need to have emissions from electricity to be near to zero by The Electricity Market Reform (EMR) puts in place measures to attract the 110 billion investment required by 2020; this is needed to replace current electricity generating capacity with greener and more reliable supplies at the lowest possible cost. To shape the delivery of this, urban planning approaches need to be driven by robust planning policy that influences the energy transition towards low and zero carbon decentralised energy infrastructure. Urban planning also needs to include the retrofitting of the existing urban fabric. In the UK the Government has developed policies in the National Planning Policy Framework to explain how urban development should be planned to reduce carbon emissions and protect the environment. To reduce carbon emissions from buildings, the Government developed several key policy actions including: - the requirement that local planning authorities make sure that new developments are energy efficient; - that all new homes to be zero carbon from 2016 and are considering extending this to include all other buildings from 2019; - the introduction of the Green Deal to enable people to pay for home improvements over time using savings on their regular energy bills; - the development of Energy Performance Certificates and Display Energy Certificates to ensure there is improved data and monitoring of the energy efficiency of domestic and non-domestic buildings; - the introduction of the Code for Sustainable Homes which provides a single national standard for the design and construction of sustainable new homes. 8 The UK Carbon Plan: Delivering a Low Carbon Future (2011)

24 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 24 Of particular note is an emerging policy called Allowable Solutions 9, which is applicable also to energy efficiency in the field of urban planning. As part of the journey to zero carbon homes the Government has strengthened the energy performance requirements in the Building Regulations for new homes and will be implementing zero carbon homes from Allowable Solutions are part of this strategy to give developers an economical way of compensating for the CO 2 emissions reductions that are difficult to achieve through normal design and construction on site. Developers who opt to use Allowable Solutions will be able to use four routes which are not mutually exclusive: 1. Undertake more/all carbon abatement on site through connected measures (e.g. a heat network); 2. Meet the remaining carbon abatement requirement themselves through off-site carbon abatement actions - the do-it-yourself option (e.g. retrofitting existing buildings); 3. Contract with a third party Allowable Solutions private sector provider or work with the local authority; 4. Payment into a fund which then invests in carbon abatement projects (see example in Figure 1.1). In the following, an overview of European initiatives promoting sustainable urban planning is provided Energy Efficient Cities initiative [EECi] The Energy Efficient Cities initiative (EECi) is a cross-disciplinary research project at the University of Cambridge. The EECi aims to strengthen the UK's capacity to address energy demand reduction and environmental impact in cities, by research in building and transport technologies, district power systems, and urban planning. The EECi was originally funded by a 2.9 million EPSRC Science and Innovation Award spanning 2007 to early Energy Cities Energy Cities is the European Association of local authorities in energy transition. From 2013 to 2015, Energy Cities is under the Presidency of the City of Heidelberg (Germany) with a Board of Directors of 11 European cities. The association created in 1990 represents now more than 1,000 towns and cities in 30 countries. In 2012, Energy Cities initiated a process aimed at making and debating proposals for accelerating the energy transition of European cities and towns. These proposals are based on innovative approaches, new ideas and ground-breaking practices. They provide practical answers and link today s action to the long-term vision of a low energy city with a high quality of life for all. Proposals for energy-efficient urban planning developed by Energy Cities include: - Make planning system drive territory s energy transition; - Prepare an energy retrofitting plan for the whole building stock; - Ensure that new neighbourhoods are 100% renewable; - Plan modal shift to sustainable transport; - Transform railway stations into territorial structuring hubs; - Implement goods delivery schemes. 9

25 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 25 Figure 1.1: Example of payment into an Allowable Solutions fund for energy efficiency measures Planning for Energy Efficient Cities (PLEEC) The PLEEC project is funded by the EU Seventh Framework Programme uses an integrative approach to achieve the sustainable, energy efficient, smart city. By coordinating strategies and combining best practices, PLEEC aims to develop a general model for energy efficiency and sustainable city planning. This will be achieved by connecting scientific excellence and innovative enterprises in the energy sector with ambitious and well-organised cities European Initiative on Smart Cities The European Initiative on Smart Cities is built on existing EU and national policies and programmes and involves all the more of 4,500 local authorities that are part of the Covenant of Mayors. The aim of the initiative is to demonstrate the feasibility of rapidly progressing towards our energy and climate objectives at a local level while proving to citizens that their quality of life and local economies can be improved through investments in energy efficiency and reduction of carbon emissions. The specific objectives of the initiative are hereby listed: to trigger a sufficient take-up (5% of the EU population) of energy efficient and low carbon technologies; to reduce by 40% the greenhouse gas (reference year 1990) emissions by 2020, which will demonstrate not only environmental and energy security benefits but also to provide socio-economic advantages in terms of quality of life, local employment and businesses, and citizen empowerment; to effectively spread across Europe best practices of sustainable energy concepts at local level, for instance through the Covenant of Majors.

26 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 26 To achieve these objectives, both technological and policies actions will be implemented and this would involve ambitious and pioneer measures in buildings, energy networks and transport. Figure 1.2: Roadmap for Smart Cities

27 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential ICT AS A TOOL TO ENERGY EFFICIENCY The development of information and communication technology, as well as the availability of cheaper and more precise sensors, allows today the widespread use of several energy efficient technologies, services and solutions that were not available until a few decades ago. ICT itself cannot be considered the most important technological sector on abating energy demands, however it can enable large savings especially at the level of plants thanks to improved control and monitoring, allowing a much better matching between the need of an energy service and the service. 2.1.ICT enabled equipment benefits In this paragraph the benefits enabled by ICT are subdivided into three categories: those related to monitoring and control of energy systems, those allowing optimization of systems and the possibility of improving benchmarking thanks to the collection of an extremely large abundance of data Monitoring and control One of the guiding sayings of resource efficiency is what gets measured, gets controlled. The deployment of sensors and monitoring systems enabled by ICT development brings this concept to a much finer granularity than in the past. This is sided by the ease of remote monitoring, allowing information to pass from the plant to its manager without the need of visits with minimal additional communication infrastructure. In the following, the most important services enabled by ICT are described. Monitoring of environment/comfort conditions and occupation The possibility of easily collecting environmental parameters (temperature, humidity, light) and of the real use of an area (through movement and presence sensors) and transmitting them allows a very fine tuning of energy services, arriving to the level of the single room. Such signals are can be used to manage ventilation, air conditioning, lighting, humidification and other electric systems typical of building plants, but also movable shading structures or electrochromic glazings being part of the envelope of the building. Some sensor-based control systems like these are already in use by decades (e.g. the thermostatic control of a heating system in an office). However, the traditional local control systems do not allow the plant manager to record and detect if the plant works correctly or not. In fact, these systems do not include centralized data collection and analysis, whereas ICT enables local control of a much larger number of parameters within smaller volumes, thus allowing to fully understand the operation of complex systems. Measurement of production and consumption breakdown Another important aspect of monitoring equipment is to understand the real operation of each component and thus to correctly allocate energy consumptions and economic costs. An example can be provided by a centralized space heating system in a large building block (but the same example is valid in case the building block is connected to the district heating and a substation is in place of the centralized boiler), shared by several housing units. Traditionally such a system had a simple regulation of delivery water temperature exiting the boiler, and energy consumption was only measured at the fuel meter. Building occupants could only regulate temperature by opening radiators valves (or opening windows). At present, such a system can be renovated by installing on each radiator thermostatic valves (automatic actuators with manual regulation) and a heat cost allocator (a small computer measuring radiator temperature and calculating the heat flow from it to the environment, sending then a signal to a centralized data management and elaboration system that is usually remotely controlled via a web interface). In this way, it is possible to regulate more precisely and in an automatic way the internal comfort, and the data management system knows the consumption in each room. In a public building

28 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 28 (i.e. a school, or a public office) such system indicates immediately where heating is left on even if the room is not used, or where a room needs too much heat indicating some anomaly (e.g. improper behaviour of occupants, windows left open etc...). A different example is given by the monitoring systems installed on PV plants, where it is possible to continuously monitor production of each string and detect different behaviour of strings due to shadowing, different heat removal, different modules characteristics and other causes. Monitoring of equipment operation Sensors installed on equipment to implement specific features (e.g. delivery and return temperatures and flow rate from a boiler) or for environmental control (e.g. a light sensor) allow to always monitor the correct operation of equipment or problem caused by equipment improper operation or by failures, thus allowing the quick detection of the need for maintenance of cleanliness. In the example of the building block, the main boiler (or the group of boilers) serving the heating system can be easily equipped with two thermocouples, one flow meter and a pressure transducer at the main delivery and return pipelines of the heating system and with a fuel flow meter, with data being communicated to the same data management system (in the following BMS, Building Management System) collecting data from the radiators. In this way, the plant manager is able to constantly know if the boiler works properly, if its efficiency is not dropping and if the distribution pumps work as they should. In the example of the photovoltaic plant, a monitoring system can quickly detect any anomaly due to dirt or a damage, and thus call for maintenance immediately. Equipment control ICT can of course be used bi-directionally, not only measuring field parameters and monitoring them at central level but also deciding actions at central level and executing them at local level, substituting, siding or forcing on field retroaction systems. For example, HVAC systems where temperature is controlled by locally installed thermostats can be remotely forced not to work in case the area is not occupied, or heating/cooling can be anticipated in some parts of a building and delayed in other parts in order to reduce overall peak demand (while guaranteeing a pre-defined comfort level). Billing In cases where a plant serves several subjects (building occupants, companies etc.) ICT can be used to divide more correctly the operation costs (or earnings). In the example of the building block with centralized heating systems and thermostatic valves and heat cost allocators on each radiator, the ICT system makes it possible to share the heating cost among building occupants proportionally to the individual consumption. In the reality, in this case heat billing usually comprehends a fixed quota taking into account for maintenance expenses and heat exchange among housing units and a consumption quota proportional to energy use; in any case the implementation of such systems on building blocks having centralized space heating systems brings alone savings between 15 and 20% due to the fact that people pay for what they use and that regulation is simpler. Although similar cost allocation systems existed also before ICT, the absence of communication systems made it necessary the visit of an operator every year, reading consumption from each radiator of the building with much higher service costs and a much slower detection of changes or of problems. Forecasting and planning of energy use and/or production The implementation of ICT allows to make systems more flexible and adaptable to changes. This means that set point of systems, timetables, and operation tables of systems can be quickly changed following routine changes in the use of internal spaces of buildings and other structures.

29 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential Energy Service Optimization Collecting and recording large amounts of data in a building or other complex energy system allows a much deeper knowledge of the system behaviour, thus orienting technological choices in case of renovation or system upgrade and allowing the gradual optimization of equipment choices. Optimization of equipment choice occurs since operation always shows that some assumptions done during design underestimated some factors and overestimated other, and that large safety margins were taken in order to avoid problems during operation. Monitoring provides important indications that allow reducing margins which always mean larger installation costs and poorer operation performance and better sizing the components of plants and the features of buildings. In terms of ordinary use, pervasive sensing networks allow different and more efficient, choices in systems management that would be not possible without the deep knowledge of the instantaneous system behaviour. A typical example is the management of the HVAC system of an office building served by a condensing boiler or a heat pump at the morning startup. These systems have higher efficiency at partial load, but only through a ICT based deep knowledge of the building behaviour it is possible to optimize the space heating (or cooling) ramp, and in particular to find the best compromise between a quick warm-up (or cool down) time at high heating (cooling) power rate, with generator operating at low efficiency and a long, smooth warming up (cooling time) time with a higher generator efficiency but higher losses Common features and issues on ICT systems implementation Development of ICT systems allowed the broad extension of energy control systems, with an improvement of service quality, energy management and cost performance. The improvements are achieved thanks to: - the improvement of sensors and actuators; - the reduction of their cost; - the development of wireless sensors (and sometimes actuators) for many applications, with secure radio communication systems and autonomous power supply through PV cells or long duration battery; - the possibility of developing extremely sophisticated control algorithms through digital systems, computers and PLCs; - the possibility of recording and transmitting large amounts of data in secure way through private or public wired or wireless networks; - the development of refined analysis and reporting software tools, often operable also via web interface, automatically elaborating information and distilling the most significant information and patterns of interest for the system manager and for the user. The spreading use of ICT in energy systems, also at final user level, poses however some issues which are tricky and still call for standardized solution. Among the various problems, two are common issues faced when implementing ICT in energy systems: the excess of control and the interoperability of software and hardware tools. Excess of control occurs when sensors and feedback systems are not well designed, and not all the practical situations are considered. A typical example of this problem can occur in large office buildings where HVAC systems where the contemporaneous use of heating and cooling is possible and were a room-by room control of environmental parameters occurs. These situations are not uncommon for two reasons: first, cooling systems are often equipped with post-heating batteries to allow humidity control of internal air and improve comfort; second, in large buildings it is not uncommon that rooms located along external walls may require some heating and internal rooms may require at the same time some cooling because the internal heat sources are significant (lighting, electric appliances, computers, crowding) and there is no dissipation of this heating. In such situation, it is common to install a large number of local HVAC system terminals for regulating temperature and humidity at room level or at area level with a regulation based on local measurement of these

30 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 30 parameters. If this pervasive sensors and actuators network has not a proper centralized management system, analyzing and understanding what is happening at local level and eventually forcing local control systems, it often occurs that in a room generating a slight excess of heat air cooling is on, and in the neighbouring one, facing some minimal heat losses, heating is on. This situation may bring in some conditions (due to air circulation or rooms use) to a vicious circle where heating system mostly works to compensate heat losses caused by air cooling occurring in the neighbouring room, with the consequence of wasting large amounts of energy without detecting the problem. A good way to avoid this kind of problem is to design measurement and control systems keeping the same level of measurement and control for environmental parameters and for energy flows. Whereas the problem just described is a technological problem, interoperability of ICT tools for energy management is more a commercial problem, which can have serious consequences. In the past two decades companies have started offering the market more and more sophisticated ICT solutions including sensors, actuators, communication systems and data management and analysis software able to solve an enormous amount of problems. The problem is however that these systems often rely on proprietary communication protocols, and analysis and control software is closed and does not permit to understand the internal way of working of algorithms. This poses a series of problems to installers, energy managers and end users: what to do if a component breaks and it relies on systems which became obsolete or the company producing it went out of production? How to expand the system if the new functions are not supported by the supplier of the rest of the system? How to check if a newly operating system works correctly in all conditions or if some settings are wrong (such question seems trivial, but it is not in complex systems)? These and other related questions are real problems which are still not resolved. Although there are some open systems, large suppliers tend to supply complete proprietary systems for both hardware and software to warrant long term supply and assistance contracts with customers, and these solutions are often more fascinating and complete than open solutions. As a result, energy management systems are often not complete or not updated, and most of the time they are composed by a series of independent heterogeneous management systems (with typical conflict problems when the same service have different controls with badly defined hierarchy), even on the same building. The issue of interoperability of ICT tools developed within DIMMER will be duly taken into consideration in the development of the middleware that is being performed in WP2 of the Project Benchmarking The deployment of pervasive ICT-based management on complex energy systems, offering advanced data analytics, is building enormous databases that offer the possibility of important statistical elaborations, providing more precise reference data in a vast variety of conditions. Although most of these data are private, and this kind of analysis is limited to elaboration of energy service companies and plant managing companies managing large numbers of energy systems, but large data bases are being built also by universities, research centres, standardization and certification institutions and public bodies, and it is expected that these data will help to fulfil in the next few years the current lack of benchmarking data not allowing reliable energy classification for commercial, office, small handicraft activities and extending classification to important energy services such as cooling. 2.2.IPMVP: energy saving measurement The International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP) defines standard terms and suggests best practices for quantifying the results of energy efficiency investments and increase investment in energy and water efficiency, demand management and renewable energy projects. IPMVP is a widely referenced framework for assessing energy or water savings, and is used especially for assessing and reporting savings under ESCO contracts. It is a high level framework, not providing specific project design but presenting a common terminology and defining full disclosure to allow a rational discussion on issued related to measurement and verification (in the following, M&V), which often are cause of discussions disputes.

31 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 31 Measurement of savings of an energy efficiency project are tricky to be defined, and a common terminology and total access to measure data are a pre-requisite for assessing energy efficiency. For technical discussion on a specific intervention, IPMVP must be sided by energy engineering skills. The main IPMVP is to provide guidelines for M&V practice, in order to reassure the public about savings reports. IPMVP stresses on some main features of saving reports, such as the need to define a baseline (to be corrected depending on a clear set of operational parameters of the system subject to the interventions) and to adjust raw differences in energy use according to changes in conditions along with the savings reporting periods. IPMVP is being used as a reference guideline framework within performance contracting industry in the USA, in M&V practices in several European Projects and in the EPC industry worldwide. IPMVP is currently in its fourth edition and is freely available at under the Products tab. IPMVP is prepared in three Volumes 10 : Volume I Concepts and Options for Determining Energy and Water Savings Volume I defines terminology and suggests good practices for documenting the effectiveness of energy or water efficiency projects that are implemented in buildings and industrial facilities. These terms and practices help managers to prepare M&V Plans, which specify how savings will be measured for each project. The successful M&V Plan enables verification by requiring transparent reports of actual project performance. The Preface of Volume 1, 2007, summarizes its contents, and is quoted below. Volume II Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ) Issues Volume II reviews IEQ issues as they may be influenced by an energy efficiency project. It highlights good project design and implementation practices for maintaining acceptable indoor conditions under an energy efficiency project. It advises on means of measuring IEQ parameters to substantiate whether indoor conditions have changed from the conditions of the baseline when determining savings. Volume III Applications Volume III contains specific application guidance manuals for Volume I. The two current applications manuals address new building construction (Part I) and renewable energy additions to existing facilities (Part II). This Volume is expected to be an area of continued development as more specific applications are defined, or country-specific sections are contributed. 10 The description of the volumes contents is taken from the EVO website

32 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential OVERVIEW ON ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL In this section an analysis of the energy saving potential is provided. The section reports information regarding the development of energy efficiency policies and technologies at EU, national level for Italy and UK and local level for Turin and Manchester, and provides a quantitative evaluation of the energy saving potential. The figures about savings which are presented are largely based on data from the Interactive database on Energy Saving Potentials in EU Member States ( ), a large database covering the whole EU-28 plus Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. The source of data is chosen due to its authority and to the possibility of comparing the situations of different countries in an homogeneous way. These data are here provided for assessing a comparison with the targets set at EU and national level about energy efficiency increase, and thus to permit the evaluation on the level of commitment in achieving these targets. The database uses as a reference year for assessing energy efficiency potential year 2004, so that the database projection for year 2015 are also presented. The database considering four scenarios: - the autonomous scenario, used as a reference scenario to assess potential in the other scenarios considers that technology diffusion is driven in an autonomous way. It takes into account the development in terms of demographic drivers, technology diffusion, renovation and demolition rates, new builds, changes in energy prices etc. This scenario considers the impacts of policies previous to the base year; - The low policy intensity scenario considers that diffusion of the best available energy saving technologies (BAT) beyond the autonomous diffusion is driven by increase of energy prices and by low level energy efficiency policies. Barriers to energy efficiency diffusion persist in this scenario, including non-economic barriers such as information deficits, administrative barriers etc. - The high policy intensity scenario considers additional technology diffusion of BAT to the maximum possible rates from the economic point of view. It considers cost effectiveness from a country perspective, assuming that a high policy intensity reduces transaction costs and removes barriers for the consumer by suitable measures. - The technical scenario considers a full technology diffusion of BAT at the maximum technically possible rate. This means that in this scenario all investments along with the normal renovation rate in each sector move to BAT. This scenario is a hypothetical maximum that will never be reached, but that poses a realistic upper limit to the potential of energy saving technologies currently available on the market. An estimate of the remaining energy efficiency potential at present day is herein presented assuming the high policy intensity scenario as representative of the evolution that occurred in after This choice has been considered because: - Considering a higher efficiency reached today, the remaining potential in the forthcoming years is estimated in a conservative way; - Several EU policies were truly implemented with strong commitment by countries, with results overcoming the more optimistic estimates that could have been done ten years ago. This is the case of PV and wind energy production, and this partially compensates the slower changes that occurred in other sectors such as the residential sector; - The global economic crisis was completely unexpected before 2008, so that energy consumption dropped especially in transportation and industry independently from environmental policies.

33 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential The European Union case The European Union and its member states are among the most committed bodies in contrasting climate change through energy efficiency, development of renewable energy sources and cleaner energy production from conventional source. EU considers energy efficiency and the development of a cleaner economy necessary not only for environmental reasons, but also as a target to improve energy self-sufficiency and a key factor for industrial leadership and economic competitiveness. EU is seeking ambitious targets in terms of greenhouse gases emissions reduction: 20% reduction in 2020 respect to the reference year 2007, 30%-40% in 2030 and -80% in The instruments that EU is using to achieve these targets span from the international agreements, where the Member States are among the most proactive countries in pushing for ambitious targets in the next successor of the Kyoto Protocol, funding to research and industrial innovation, medium and long term plans supported by EU Directives, which are then implemented as binding legislation in the Member States. In the following, the energy efficiency potential assessment is presented, followed then by the most important instruments that are being set for achieving EU s targets: the SET Plan, the Directive, Horizon 2020, the energy efficiency related directives issued in the past 10 years EU-27 energy efficiency potential The following tables shows the energy efficiency potential achievable through the Bats in Europe, sector by sector, in terms of final energy (fuels and electricity). The tables are elaborated starting from the already mentioned energy efficiency database, and indicate the energy efficiency potential respect to the autonomous scenario and the variation, sector by sector, of energy demand respect to the 2004 reference year and the 2015 HPI scenario. Table 3 shows the total energy demand for EU-27. The baseline scenario foresees a fair growth in the total energy demand. In the lowest policy intensity scenario, in 2030 the total energy consumption would have grown by 1% from 2004 and of 6% taking 2015 HPI as the reference. The reduction respect to the baseline scenario would be of 14%. These figure increases to 22% in the high policy intensity scenario and to 32% in the technical scenario. Considering that the more likely situation is intermediate between LPI and HPI scenarios, it can be considered that thanks to energy efficiency energy demand should be in 2020 about 20% lower than what it would be in absence of EU policies. Unit Baseline Consumption Ktoe LPI Scenario Consumption Ktoe Potential % 0% -7% -10% -14% variation from 2004 % 0% -2% -1% 1% variation from 2015 HPI % 3% 4% 6% HPI Scenario Consumption Ktoe Potential % 0% -9% -14% -22% variation from 2004 % 0% -5% -6% -9% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% -1% -4% Technical scenario Consumption Ktoe Potential % 0% -13% -20% -32% variation from 2004 % 0% -9% -12% -20% variation from 2015 HPI % -4% -8% -16% Table 3: Total energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for EU-27 This assessment is of course an assessment with its limits; the more interesting aspect of this evaluation is related to the evaluation of potential at sector level. In particular, whereas at present the growth of industrial energy demand appears

34 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 34 to be overestimated, the saving potential appears to be realistic: the EU IPPC (Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control) directive had already started requiring improvements in environmental and energy performance of large industries at the time when the assessment was done, so that its important effect is already considered within the baseline scenario. Unit Autonomous Consumption ktoe LPI Scenario Consumption ktoe Potential % 0% -4% -6% -8% variation from 2004 % 0% 10% 17% 29% variation from 2015 HPI % 1% 6% 18% HPI Scenario Consumption ktoe Potential % 0% -5% -7% -9% variation from 2004 % 0% 10% 16% 28% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% 6% 17% Technical scenario Consumption ktoe Potential % 0% -6% -9% -13% variation from 2004 % 0% 8% 13% 22% variation from 2015 HPI % -2% 3% 11% Table 4: Industrial energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for EU-27 The effect of energy efficiency on transportation, mostly given by the substitution of vehicles with less fuel consuming vehicles, is also notable, but the foreseen growth in the sector, in terms of passengers-kilometre and of tons-kilometretransportation nearly compensates the large savings achieved by the sector. Unit autonomous Consumption ktoe LPI Scenario Consumption ktoe Potential % 0% -11% -14% -15% variation from 2004 % 0% -8% -3% 8% variation from 2015 HPI % 2% 6% 20% HPI Scenario Consumption ktoe Potential % 0% -13% -18% -24% variation from 2004 % 0% -9% -8% -3% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% 1% 7% Technical scenario Consumption ktoe Potential % 0% -17% -23% -30% variation from 2004 % 0% -13% -13% -11% variation from 2015 HPI % -4% -4% -1% Table 5: Transportation energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for EU-27 The results of the assessment are much more interesting for the residential, the most important when considering districts, where the potential at 2030 is assessed between 20 and 60%. Considering the energy efficiency improvement already occurring through policies issued before 2004, the savings to be expected for this sector are expectable between 40 and 50%. The tertiary sector, also provides interesting margins of improvement, with a saving potential estimable

35 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 35 between 20 and 25% (keeping an intermediate evaluation between low policy intensity scenario and high policy intensity scenario), and a saving in absolute terms of around 10-15%. households Unit autonomous Consumption ktoe LPI Scenario Consumption ktoe Potential % 0% -4% -7% -17% variation from 2004 % 0% -11% -19% -35% variation from 2015 HPI % 8% -1% -21% HPI Scenario Consumption ktoe Potential % 0% -11% -19% -42% variation from 2004 % 0% -18% -29% -55% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% -14% -45% Technical scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -16% -29% -66% variation from 2004 % 0% -22% -38% -73% variation from 2015 HPI % -6% -24% -67% Table 6: Household energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for EU-27 Tertiary Unit autonomous consumption ktoe LPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -8% -14% -22% variation from 2004 % 0% 1% -2% -6% variation from 2015 HPI % 2% 0% -4% HPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -11% -17% -29% variation from 2004 % 0% -2% -5% -14% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% -4% -12% Technical scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -16% -25% -37% variation from 2004 % 0% -8% -15% -24% variation from 2015 HPI % -6% -13% -22% Table 7: Tertiary energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for EU The 2020 Climate and Energy Package The climate and energy package 11 is a set of binding legislation which aims to ensure the European Union meets its climate and energy targets for These are the targets for 2020 are: - A 20% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels. This target might improve to 30% by 2020 if other major economies in developed and developing countries committed themselves to undertake a global emissions reduction effort; - Raising the share of EU energy consumption produced from renewable resources to 20%; 11 More information on the package at

36 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 36 - A 20% improvement in the EU's energy efficiency. The targets represent an integrated approach to climate and energy policy that aims to combat climate change, increase the EU s energy security and strengthen its competitiveness. The targets are part of the Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth, and in this sense the package is considered not only an initiative on environmental and energy themes, but a strategy to improve energy independence, to foster competition and to promote employment, with the estimation of about 400,000 new jobs created in the renewable energy sector only. The climate and energy package is articulated into four measures: 1. The reform of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS), aimed at cutting industrial GHG emissions more cost effectively. The main changes consider the substitution of national emissions caps with a single EU-wide cap that will be progressively reduced to 21% below the 2005 level in The free allocation of allowances will be substituted by the mechanism of auctioning, and the sectors and gases covered by the scheme will be broadened; 2. The introduction of national targets for non-eu ETS emissions. These targets cover the sectors not covered by the emission trading systems, including housing, agriculture, waste and transport with the exclusion of aviation. These sectors produce about 60% of EU s total emissions. National targets are differentiated according to Member States relative wealth. Emissions must be reported under the EU monitoring mechanism. 3. The setting of National renewable energy targets, differentiated country by country depending from their starting point and from their potential, ranging from 10% (Malta) to 49% (Sweden) 4. The creation of a legal framework for carbon capture and storage. The climate and energy package does not directly address the energy efficiency target. This major target is specifically treated by the Energy Efficiency Plan and by the Energy Efficiency Directive, which are described below The Energy Efficiency Plan The Energy Efficiency Plan This plan aims at promoting a resource efficient economy, implementing a low carbon system, improving EU s energy independence and strengthening the security of energy supply. The plan proposes actions at several levels: - Fostering low energy consumption in the construction sector, through the removal of existing economic, technical and cultural obstacles, the dedicated training of architects, engineers and technicians, and through a major development of ESCO schemes in the field; - Developing a competitive, clean industry, through the replacement of inefficient equipment and the adding of new, efficient production capacity and infrastructures, the recovery of waste heat streams from electricity and industrial production, the diffusion of cogeneration, through the creation of new instruments to better allocate the financial value of energy and to gradually shift profits and fees from delivered energy to delivered, efficient energy services and, finally through the systematic diffusion of energy audits within small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) - Adapting national and European financing through the intensification of energy taxation and carbon taxes; - Reinforcing the approach of the Ecodesign Directive and defining stricter standards on appliances, improving customers understanding of ecolabelling and promoting the diffusion of intelligent energy meters

37 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential The Energy Efficiency Directive The Directive 2012/27 12, the energy efficiency directive, entered into force on 4 December 2012 and was then modified into Directive 2013/12 to take into account the entrance of Croatia and thus to adapt projections for EU-27 to EU-28. Most of its provisions had to be implemented by the Member States by June The Directive establishes a common framework of measures for the promotion of energy efficiency within the Union in order to ensure the achievement of the Union s % headline target on energy efficiency and to pave the way for further energy efficiency improvements beyond that date. All EU-28 countries are required to use energy more efficiently at all stages of the energy chain, from the transformation of energy and its distribution to its final consumption. The new Directive will also help remove barriers and overcome market failures that impede efficiency in the supply and use of energy. It also provides for the establishment of indicative national energy efficiency targets for New measures include: - The legal definition and quantification of the EU energy efficiency target as the ''Union's 2020 energy consumption of no more than Mtoe primary energy or no more than Mtoe of final energy''. With the accession of Croatia the target was revised to "1 483 Mtoe primary energy or no more than Mtoe of final energy''. - The obligation on each Member State to set an indicative national energy efficiency target in the form they prefer (e.g. primary/final savings, intensity, consumption) and, by 30 April 2013, to notify it together with its 'translation' in terms of an absolute level of primary energy consumption and final energy consumption in The obligation on Member States to achieve certain amount of final energy savings over the obligation period (01 January December 2020) by using energy efficiency obligations schemes or other targeted policy measures to drive energy efficiency improvements in households, industries and transport sectors; - Major energy savings for consumers: easy and free-of-charge access to data on real-time and historical energy consumption through more accurate individual metering will now empower consumers to better manage their energy consumption. - The obligation for large enterprises to carry out an energy audit at least every four years, with a first energy audit at the latest by 5 December Incentives for SMEs to undergo energy audits to help them identify the potential for reduced energy consumption. - Public sector to lead by example by renovating 3% of buildings owned and occupied by the central governments starting from 01 January 2014 and by including energy efficiency considerations in public procurement insofar as certain conditions are met (e.g. cost-effectiveness, economic feasibility) so as to purchase energy efficient buildings, products and services. - Efficiency in energy generation: monitoring of efficiency levels of new energy generation capacities, national assessments for co-generation and district heating potential and measures for its uptake to be developed by 31 December 2015, including recovery of waste heat, demand side resources to be encouraged Roadmap for moving to a competitive low -carbon economy in 2050 The roadmap is a communication issued by European Commission in 2011 aimed at looking beyond the short term, the approaching 2020, in order to set a cost-effective path for achieve deep emission cuts, as needed from all major economies to hold global warming below 2 C compared to pre-industrial times. 12 Information here is taken from European Commission website on the page of this directive,

38 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 38 The roadmap suggests to cut EU emissions to 80% below 1990 levels through reductions within European Union, with the intermediate milestones of 60% by The 2030 framework for climate and energy policies The most recent update of the EU policies in the field of greenhouse gas emissions reduction is the agreement among EU leaders signed on 23 October 2014, which has set the target to reduce the domestic 2030 greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% compared to This policy has the overall objective to make the European Union's economy and energy system more competitive, secure and sustainable. For this reason, two further targets are set for 2030: 27% energy production from renewable sources and 27% increase of energy efficiency. 3.2.The Italian case In Italy the lack of internal resources and a high fiscal load on energy products have historically pushed the national industry to save energy, and the energy intensity in Italy has been during years among the lowest in Europe. In the past twenty years, further achievements in energy efficiency occurred especially in the industrial and residential sectors, whereas changes in transportation were limited due to a reduction of energy intensity in freight transportation caused mostly by changes in logistics organization, where the diffusion of just-in-time delivery reduced the average load of freight vehicles. The evolution of energy intensity in Italy is indicated by the graph in Figure 3.1. Figure 3.1: Evolution of the energy efficiency index in Italy in The most recent update regarding energy efficiency in Italy is the Italian National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP) 14, approved in July In this document, the national actions regarding energy efficiency are presented and their contribution to the expected savings is estimated. In particular, a saving of 20 Mtoe/year by 2020 is expected, among which 7 Mtoe in the industry field, 7 in the residential-services one and 6 Mtoe in the transport sector. 13 Data from Energy Efficiency Policies and Measures in Italy, ODYSSEE- MURE 2010 Intelligent Europe Project, ENEA. Available online at 14 Available online at

39 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 39 In the following, the analysis of energy efficiency in Italy based on the European database on energy savings potential is provided Energy efficiency potential in Italy The following tables show the energy efficiency potential achievable through BATs in Italy, sector by sector, in terms of final energy (fuels and electricity). As for the EU-27 the tables are elaborated starting from the energy efficiency database, and indicate the energy efficiency potential respect to the autonomous scenario and the variation, sector by sector, of energy demand respect to the 2004 reference year and the 2015 HPI (high policy intensity) scenario. Table 8 shows the total energy demand for Italy. The baseline scenario foresees a fair growth in the total energy demand. In the lowest policy intensity scenario, in 2030 the total energy consumption would have grown by 1% from 2004 and of 7% taking 2015 HPI as the reference. The reduction respect to the baseline scenario would be of 14%. These figure increases to 21% in the high policy intensity scenario and to 29% in the technical scenario. Considering that the more likely situation is intermediate between LPI and HPI scenarios, it can be considered that thanks to energy efficiency energy demand should be in 2020 about 15-20% lower than what it would be in absence of policies. Unit baseline Consumption ktoe LPI Scenario Consumption ktoe Potential % 0% -7% -10% -14% variation from 2004 % 0% -6% -7% -7% variation from 2015 HPI % 1% 1% 1% HPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -8% -13% -21% variation from 2004 % 0% -7% -10% -14% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% -3% -8% Technical scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -12% -18% -29% variation from 2004 % 0% -11% -15% -23% variation from 2015 HPI % -4% -8% -17% Table 8: Total energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for Italy This assessment an assessment made in 2007 starting from 2004 data and has some limits (economy in EU had not the steady growth used to build these scenarios and faced the crisis), the more interesting aspect of this evaluation is however related to the evaluation of potential at sector level. In particular, at present the growth of industrial energy demand appears to be overestimated, but the saving potential appears in relative terms to be realistic: the EU IPPC (Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control) directive already had started requiring improvements in environmental and energy performance of large industries at the time when the assessment was done, so that its important effect is already considered within the baseline scenario.

40 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 40 Unit Autonomous consumption ktoe LPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -4% -6% -8% variation from 2004 % 0% 10% 17% 29% variation from 2015 HPI % 1% 6% 18% HPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -5% -7% -9% variation from 2004 % 0% 10% 16% 28% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% 6% 17% Technical scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -6% -9% -13% variation from 2004 % 0% 8% 13% 22% variation from 2015 HPI % -2% 3% 11% Table 9: Industrial energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for Italy The effect of energy efficiency on transportation, mostly given by the substitution of vehicles with less fuel consuming vehicles, is also notable, but the foreseen growth in the sector, in terms of passengers-kilometre and of tons-kilometretransportation nearly compensates the large savings achieved by the sector. Unit baseline consumption ktoe LPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -4% -6% -7% variation from 2004 % 0% 5% 9% 18% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% 4% 13% HPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -5% -6% -8% variation from 2004 % 0% 4% 8% 18% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% 4% 13% Technical scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -6% -8% -12% variation from 2004 % 0% 3% 6% 12% variation from 2015 HPI % -1% 2% 7% Table 10: Transportation energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for Italy The results of the assessment are much more interesting for the residential sector, the most important when considering districts, where the potential at 2030 is assessed between 19 and 65%. Considering the energy efficiency improvement already occurring through policies issued before 2004, the savings to be expected for this sector are expectable between 30 and 40% respect to 2015 HPI scenario. The tertiary sector also provides interesting margins of improvement, with a saving potential estimable between 11 and 31% (keeping an intermediate evaluation between low policy intensity scenario and high policy intensity scenario), and a saving in absolute terms of around 15%.

41 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 41 Unit baseline consumption ktoe LPI Scenario consumption ktoe Potential % 0% -4% -8% -19% variation from 2004 % 0% -13% -21% -40% variation from 2015 HPI % 5% -5% -27% HPI Scenario consumption ktoe Potential % 0% -9% -18% -42% variation from 2004 % 0% -17% -30% -57% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% -15% -48% Technical scenario consumption ktoe Potential % 0% -16% -29% -65% variation from 2004 % 0% -23% -40% -74% variation from 2015 HPI % -8% -27% -68% Table 11: Household energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for Italy Unit baseline consumption ktoe LPI Scenario consumption ktoe Potential % 0% -9% -15% -24% variation from 2004 % 0% -6% -11% -18% variation from 2015 HPI % 2% -3% -11% HPI Scenario consumption ktoe Potential % 0% -12% -18% -30% variation from 2004 % 0% -8% -14% -25% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% -7% -18% Technical scenario consumption ktoe The UK case Potential % 0% -17% -27% -41% variation from 2004 % 0% -14% -23% -36% variation from 2015 HPI % -7% -16% -31% Table 12: Tertiary energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for Italy With the Low Carbon Transition Plan, approved in 2009, the UK Government has set the objective to achieve a 18% reduction of national greenhouse gases emissions with reference to 1990, coupled with an electricity production from renewable sources of about 30% by the same deadline. An even more challenging target has been set with the 2050 scenarios: in this context, the UK has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 (from the same 1990 baseline), and energy efficiency will have to increase

42 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 42 dramatically across all sectors to achieve this target. The Government has set out scenarios for 2050 which imply a per capita demand reduction of between 21% and 47% relative to a 2011 baseline, shown below. 15 Figure 3.2: UK final energy consumption per capita compared against carbon plan scenarios: The Energy Efficiency Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (EE-MACC) presented below estimates the annual energy savings by 2020 through implementing energy efficiency measures. 16 It is based on detailed modelling of ambitious scenarios for the potential for investment in energy efficiency from different sectors of the economy. The more cost-effective a measure, the closer it is to the left-hand side of the chart. It shows that that by 2020 the UK could be saving 196TWh annually through socially cost-effective investment in energy efficiency. That is around 11% lower than the business as usual baseline. Figure 3.3: 2020 Energy Efficiency Marginal Abatement Cost Curve DECC Energy Efficiency Strategy statistical summary, Nov DECC Policy paper: Energy Efficiency Strategy: The Energy Efficiency Opportunity in the UK, Nov 2012 The x-axis measures the size of the energy saving in a given year, relative to the level of energy consumption that would be seen in the absence of these measures. The y-axis represents the cost effectiveness of a measure, defined as the net present value divided by the lifetime energy savings. This cost-effectiveness metric represents the net cost of saving a MWh of energy over the lifetime of the project. Measures that are below the line have negative costs over their lifetime, which means that the discounted sum of benefits outweighs the discounted costs of that measure.

43 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential Energy efficiency potential in the UK The following tables show the energy efficiency potential achievable through the Bats in the UK, sector by sector, in terms of final energy (fuels and electricity). As for the EU-27 and Italy the tables are elaborated starting from the energy efficiency database, and indicate the energy efficiency potential respect to the autonomous scenario and the variation, sector by sector, of energy demand respect to the 2004 reference year and the 2015 HPI (high policy intensity) scenario. Table 13 shows the total energy demand for the UK. The baseline scenario foresees a fair growth in the total energy demand. In the lowest policy intensity scenario, in 2030 the total energy consumption would have grown by 1% from 2004 and of 7% taking 2015 HPI as the reference. The reduction respect to the baseline scenario would be of 14%. These figure increases to 21% in the high policy intensity scenario and to 29% in the technical scenario. Considering that the more likely situation is between LPI and HPI scenarios, it can be argued that thanks to energy efficiency increase, energy demand should be in 2020 about 15-20% lower than what it would be in absence of policies. Unit baseline consumption ktoe LPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -7% -10% -14% variation from 2004 % 0% -6% -7% -8% variation from 2015 HPI % 2% 2% 0% HPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -9% -14% -23% variation from 2004 % 0% -8% -11% -18% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% -3% -10% Technical scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -13% -20% -34% variation from 2004 % 0% -12% -17% -30% variation from 2015 HPI % -4% -10% -24% Table 13: Total energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for UK This assessment made from seems more correct than in the case of Italy: the industrial sector in 2004 in Italy had a relatively higher importance in the economy than in UK; since then industrial production in Italy was strongly affected by the crisis whereas the UK industry could benefit of the weakness of the pound favouring exports, so that UK industrial sector is now stronger than it was ten years ago. The saving potential appears in relative terms to be realistic: the EU IPPC (Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control) directive already had started requiring improvements in environmental and energy performance of large industries at the time when the assessment was done, so that its important effect is already considered within the baseline scenario. The effect of energy efficiency on transportation, mostly given by the substitution of vehicles with less fuel consuming vehicles, is also notable, but the foreseen growth in the sector, in terms of passengers-kilometre and of tons-kilometretransportation nearly compensates the large savings achieved by the sector.

44 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 44 Unit baseline consumption ktoe LPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -4% -5% -7% variation from 2004 % 0% 2% 5% 12% variation from 2015 HPI % 1% 3% 10% HPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -5% -6% -7% variation from 2004 % 0% 1% 4% 11% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% 3% 10% Technical scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -6% -9% -14% variation from 2004 % 0% -1% 1% 3% variation from 2015 HPI % -2% 0% 2% Table 14: Industrial energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for UK Unit baseline consumption ktoe LPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -11% -14% -15% variation from 2004 % 0% -13% -11% -7% variation from 2015 HPI % 2% 4% 8% HPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -13% -18% -24% variation from 2004 % 0% -14% -16% -17% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% -1% -3% Technical scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -17% -23% -31% variation from 2004 % 0% -19% -21% -24% variation from 2015 HPI % -5% -7% -11% Table 15: Transportation energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for UK The results of the assessment are also for the UK much more interesting for the residential sector, where the potential at 2030 is assessed between 14 and 63%. Considering the energy efficiency improvement already occurring through policies issued before 2004, the savings to be expected for this sector are expectable between 30 and 40% respect to 2015 HPI scenario. The tertiary sector also provides interesting margins of improvement, with a saving potential estimable between 5 and 21% (keeping an intermediate evaluation between low policy intensity scenario and high policy intensity scenario), and a saving in absolute terms of around 10%.

45 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 45 Unit baseline consumption ktoe LPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -3% -5% -14% variation from 2004 % 0% -8% -13% -27% variation from 2015 HPI % 5% -1% -17% HPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -7% -14% -35% variation from 2004 % 0% -12% -21% -45% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% -10% -38% Technical scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -12% -24% -63% variation from 2004 % 0% -17% -31% -69% variation from 2015 HPI % -5% -21% -65% Table 16: Household energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for UK Tertiary Unit baseline consumption ktoe LPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -9% -14% -23% variation from 2004 % 0% 1% -2% -7% variation from 2015 HPI % 2% -1% -5% HPI Scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -10% -16% -28% variation from 2004 % 0% -1% -4% -14% variation from 2015 HPI % 0% -3% -13% Technical scenario consumption ktoe potential % 0% -16% -24% -35% variation from 2004 % 0% -7% -13% -22% variation from 2015 HPI % -6% -12% -21% Table 17: Tertiary energy consumption and energy efficiency potential for UK

46 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential The Turin case By signing the Covenant of Mayors, Turin has agreed to elaborate and carry out a Sustainable Energy Action Plan (TAPE Turin Action Plan for Energy), in order to reduce significantly its CO 2 emissions in 2020: the first target is to reduce by 40% carbon dioxide emissions with reference to the 1991 Baseline Emission Inventory, but the strategy will continue up to the achievement of the 80% reduction target, set for In the first period between 1991 and 2005, CO 2 emissions in Turin have decreased from 6,270,591 tons to 5,100,346 tons, with a reduction of 18.7%. For the period, TAPE predicts a further reduction estimated in 1,360,941 tonsco 2. More in detail, in the period , the residential sector followed the general reduction trend (-31.2%), whereas the Commerce and Services sector registered an increase (+17.8%). The main sectors involved in the TAPE are buildings (public and private) and transports: large investments have started in these domains, with effects expected in the short and in the medium-term. The TAPE involves two main strategies: - planning policies aimed at promoting energy efficiency in all sectors; - promotion of good practices and encouragement of behavioural changes. The key elements of this strategy are: a consistent retrofitting of existing buildings, the shift towards renewable energy generation, a strategic plan on public transport and a significant extension of the urban heat network based on CHP. In the following, the main actions addressed by TAPE in the municipal, commerce/services and in the residential sectors are presented Energy Efficiency Potential in Turin Municipal Sector The Municipality owns about 8% of the total buildings in Turin, with a significant incidence on energy consumption in the urban area. The City of Turin has therefore started a strategy of intervention to increase energy performance its own buildings and to promote the production of energy from renewable sources. The interventions include: - retrofitting of buildings owned by the Municipality; - realization of photovoltaic plants on buildings owned by the Municipality; - progressive replacement of boiler plants; - electric energy supply from renewable sources; - extension of the urban heat network based on CHP. Table 18 summarizes the expected results for each of the listed measures, in terms of energy saving, energy production from renewable sources, reduction of greenhouse gases emissions. Action Predicted energy saving (MWh/year) Renewable energy production (MWh/year) Reduction of CO 2 emissions (tons/year) Retrofitting of buildings owned by the Municipality 8, ,749 Realization of photovoltaic plants on buildings owned by the Municipality 0 1, Progressive replacement of boiler plants n.e Electric energy supply from renewable sources 0 61,491 31,729 Extension of the district heating network based on CHP 4, ,439 TOTAL 13,306 62,691 39,086 Table 18: Expected Results for Turin Municipal Sector

47 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential Energy Efficiency Potential in Turin Commerce/Services Sector The interventions activated by the Municipality of Turin to decrease the energy consumption and enhance the renewable energy production in the Commerce/Services sector are part of a wider plan for the socio-economical rethinking of the urban area and for the support to the enterprise system. The extension of the district heating network, which will cover 70% of tertiary building volume by 2020, is expected to give the main contribution to the increase of energy efficiency in this sector. The actions include: - Accedo Energia programme to give funding to small enterprises; - increase of energy efficiency in public tertiary buildings heating; - energy efficiency interventions in hospitals owned by Regione Piemonte; - "Dinamo Prendendo il sole" project, for the promotion of photovoltaics; - extension of the district heating network based on CHP. Table 19 summarizes the expected results for each of the listed measures, in terms of energy saving, energy production from renewable sources, reduction of greenhouse gases emissions. Action Predicted energy saving (MWh/year) Renewable energy production (MWh/year) Reduction of CO2 emissions (tons/year) Accedo Energia programme High-efficiency heating in public tertiary buildings 7, ,601 Energy efficiency interventions in hospitals 17, ,625 "Dinamo Prendendo il sole" project Extension of the district heating network based on CHP 66, ,412 TOTAL 92, Table 19: Expected Results for Turin Commerce/Services Sector Energy Efficiency Potential in Turin Residential Sector The Residential sector is responsible for 40% of the overall CO 2 emissions in the baseline year (1991) and is the focus of some of the main actions recommended in the TAPE. Many actions focus on the reduction of energy demand in buildings by means of the retrofitting of building envelopes and the substitution of plants, whereas other actions promote the introduction of systems for energy production from renewable sources. The interventions include: - retrofitting of existing buildings; - replacement of boiler plants with high-efficiency generators; - funding for retrofitting interventions; - funding for the development of demonstration projects; - tax break for the retrofitting of existing buildings; - voluntary process for energy performance improvement; - incentives for photovoltaic integration in residential buildings; - promotion of thermal solar systems; - retrofitting of via Arquata district; - extension of the urban heat network based on CHP. Table 20 summarizes the expected results for each of the listed measures, in terms of energy saving, energy production from renewable sources, reduction of greenhouse gases emissions.

48 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 48 Action Predicted energy saving (MWh/year) Renewable energy production (MWh/year) Reduction of CO 2 emissions (tons/year) Retrofitting of existing buildings 513, ,826 Replacement of boiler plants with high-efficiency generators 200, ,484 Funding for retrofitting interventions 61, ,459 Funding for the development of demonstration projects Tax break for the retrofitting of existing buildings n.d. 0 n.d. Voluntary process for energy performance improvement 6, ,246 Incentives for photovoltaic integration in residential buildings 0 4,633 2,391 Promotion of thermal solar systems 0 290,016 58,583 Retrofitting of via Arquata district Extension of the urban heat network based on CHP 517, , The Manchester case TOTAL 1,301, , ,277 Table 20: Expected Results for Turin Residential Sector Greater Manchester s commitments and targets are summarized in its annual submission to the Carbon Disclosure Project 17. The key documents, which outline its commitments and actions, are found on its On the Platform 18 information sharing service and the AGMA 19 website and include: - Greater Manchester Strategy; - Greater Manchester Investment Strategy; - Greater Manchester Climate Change Strategy 2011; - Greater Manchester Climate Change Implementation Plan 2012 (2015 update); - GM Decentralised and Zero Carbon Energy Planning study (2010); - The Greater Manchester Energy Plan (2012); - Spatially Prioritising Climate Change Risks in Greater Manchester (2013); - Update to Climate Change Implementation Plan (2015). The headline objective is to achieve a 48% reduction in CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2020 across Greater Manchester. Progress between 1990 baseline and 2010 has been monitored as part of its work to deliver an effective project pipeline to meet the 2020 target. This work, known as Low Carbon Wedges used an innovative methodology to assess the contribution of key projects and sectors. It found that: - Renewables now almost 10% of generating electrical capacity (<4% total energy UK target 20% by 2020); - Building use 18% less despite housing and population growth; - Transport emissions roughly the same despite increase demand;

49 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 49 - Industrial emissions fallen by 46% due to shift to knowledge intensive industries; - Agricultural emissions fallen by almost a third; - Emissions from waste reduced by two thirds; - Annual Emissions reduced by 4.5mt CO2e over the period. To deliver a 48% reduction by 2020 Greater Manchester need to cut annual emissions by 48% or 11million tons. The Low Carbon Wedges work predicts that between now and 2020: - National policy will deliver 2.54 Mtons; - National policy (with local influence) 0.38 Mtons; - Local Initiatives need to deliver 2.24 Mtons; - Estimated impact of existing projects 0.28 Mtons; - Estimated Impact of potential pipeline 0.27 Mtons; - Estimated gap (projects as yet unidentified) 1.68 Mtons. The following graph shows the historic emission trends and the set targets. Figure 3.4: GHG emissions trend and targets On the other hand, the following pie diagram summarizes Greater Manchester s emissions in 2012.

50 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 50 Figure 3.5: Breakdown by sector of GHG emissions in GM area Finally, the projects under pipeline in Greater Manchester area, covering a wide range of technologies, and their contribution to the overall target set by 2020 are summarized in the following Figure 3.6. The majority of electricity use in GM is from large scale energy generation. There are a number of projects in GM which are looking at how GM can produce electricity and heat. Up to December 2013 there had been 13,993 micro generation installations within Greater Manchester, the majority of which were photovoltaics. Figure 3.6: Contribution of each project in pipeline in GM area to GHG emissions reduction

51 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 51 There have been installations in all districts, but these have been on a small scale. The micro generation within GM is at a capacity of 45,666 kw; of this 45,051 kw is produced by photovoltaic plants. This data is available at district and GM level: it is worth noting that some authorities have achieved much more rapid rates of deployment than others. As regards carbon capture and storage, GM s natural assets store and sequester approximately 21 million tons of carbon dioxide per year, thus also reducing flood risk and also aid cooling Greater Manchester Sustainable Energy Action Plan The Sustainable Energy Action Plan for Manchester was developed in 2010 for the Greater Manchester (GM), area formed of the ten Local Authorities that are part of the AGMA. This area has a population of 2.54 million people (inhabiting over 1.14 million homes) and covers an area of 1,276 km 2. The total fuel consumption in GM in 2011 was 4,531 ktoe of fuel. The major energy source used in GM is natural gas, which is used both in the domestic and industrial sector, followed by petroleum products. This pattern is broadly similar to the UK, however GM uses a slightly larger percentage of gas and a slightly lower percentage of petroleum products. It is also worth noting that more than one in five (21.7%) Greater Manchester households are in fuel poverty (spending more than 10% of income on energy). By contrast, the proportion of London households in fuel poverty stands at just 10.9%, whilst the national average across England is 18.6%. The main target of the SEAP for GM is, beside the set-up of a clear picture of energy consumptions and greenhouse gases emissions in the baseline year 2005, the definition of actions to increase energy efficiency and reduce GHG emissions in the area by The main target is to reduce CO 2 emissions by at least 30% before 2020, with reference to 2005 values. As regards the 2005 baseline, in that year it is known that the residential sector was the main energy consumer in GM, using approximately 40% of the total energy; among the other sectors, commerce and services used 30%, transport consumed 27% and industry only 3% of the total energy uses. The proposed actions are divided in three main categories: Cross-Cutting Actions, Supply Actions (regarding micro and macro-generation of energy from renewable sources and/or with low-carbon technologies) and Demand Actions (acting on the reduction of energy consumption in each of the four main sectors). In the assessment of potential savings from each of the proposed actions, the effects of both national and local policies are considered Energy Efficiency Potential in Manchester Renewables and Low-Carbon Technologies Among macro and micro-generation with low-carbon technologies actions are some of the UK national interventions: - Grid Decarbonisation (Market Transformation Programme (MTP) Projections, Low Carbon Transition Plan); - Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs); - Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI). However, the SEAP foresees activities aimed at supporting and publicizing these policies at GM level in order to maximize their impact. In addition, the following local actions are proposed: - engage with Universities to explore opportunities for innovative renewable and low carbon energy technologies; - support the development of district heating networks in GM where they are viable and reduce CO 2 emissions; - support development of Energy from Waste (EfW) plants to generate electricity and heat in commercial, services and industrial sectors; - facilitate the development of community level renewable energy schemes in GM; - promote funding and finance benefits of micro-generation; - encourage development of local supply chains for micro-generation technologies; - develop and implement area based micro-generation schemes in three areas of GM. The expected reduction of greenhouse gases emissions for each of the proposed actions is shown in Table 21.

52 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 52 Action Steps to Facilitate Action Priority (1-3) Potential Impact on GM Emissions (2020) Potential Impact on GM Emissions (2050) Support the development of district heat networks in GM where they are viable and would reduce GM s CO 2 emissions. Support development of Energy from Waste (EfW) plants to generate electricity and heat in commercial, service and industrial sectors Develop a consistent, detailed GM heat map; Define what constitutes an opportunity for a heat network in each LA area; Encourage information sharing on heat networks throughout GM (particularly the Manchester Corridor); Identify potential heat customers for Carrington power station and identify additional sources of heat that can meet the heat demand; Utilising information on potential heat suppliers (existing or developed through the GM heat map). Identify priority EfW projects in GM; Engage with waste professionals to agree a strategy to bring forward priority projects; Ensure when EfW plants are specific, they need to consider opportunities for heat networks % % 1 0.5% 2.2% Facilitate the development of community level renewable energy schemes in GM. Encourage LAs to share information on community scale schemes to facilitate other schemes; Use future central GM structure and resources to support future schemes if feasible. 3 Unknown, hydropower could be >0.02% Unknown, hydropower could be >0.04% Develop and implement area based microgeneration schemes in three areas of GM. Identify three areas that might be suitable for microgeneration technologies; Review the types of technologies that could be used in that area and ensure there are suppliers who could meet the demand; Develop a communication strategy to promote micro-generation in identified areas; Develop partnership mechanisms for delivering the scheme. 1 Micro-Combined Heat and Power: 0.6% Photovoltaics: 1.1% Solar thermal: 0.6% Micro-Combined Heat and Power: 1.3% Photovoltaics: 2.1% Solar thermal: 1.3% Table 21: Expected Results for Greater Manchester Supply Actions Energy Efficiency Potential in Manchester Residential Sector The residential sector generates 36% of GM s CO 2 emissions and represents an area where quick-wins could be achieved in delivering both CO 2 emission reductions and a low carbon economy. The main national action influencing energy efficiency in GM residential buildings is the Policy Statement Building a Greener Future, which states that new homes should be net zero carbon from The primary actions in GM area are: - comprehensive rollout of programme to retrofit domestic buildings with technical solutions that will reduce heat and electricity demand; - encouragement of behavioral change to reduce demand for electricity and gas in domestic properties in GM; - encouragement of consistent planning policies to allow all residential developments to be zero carbon by The expected reduction of greenhouse gases emissions for each of the proposed actions is shown in Table 22.

53 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 53 Action Steps to Facilitate Action Priority (1-3) Potential Impact on GM Emissions (2020) Potential Impact on GM Emissions (2050) Comprehensive rollout of programme to retrofit domestic buildings with technical solutions that will reduce heat and electricity demand. Development of a business plan as part of the LCEA programme; Establishment of a funding and financing model for delivery of LCEA programme; Development of supply chains for materials to implement LCEA programme; Delivery of the support packages for property owners; Programme to promote the package across GM; Set whole house standards as part of consents for building modifications; Incorporate measures to evaluate the success of LCEA interventions in reducing CO 2 emissions in GM; Consider whether residents can also be targeted with information about sustainable transport choices alongside residential actions. 1 Insulation: 3.7% Low-Energy Lighting: 0.3% Draught Proofing: 0.4%. Replacement of old Boiler Plant: 1.6% Double-Glazing Installation: 1.1% Insulation: 4.6% Low-Energy Lighting: 0.4% Draught Proofing: 0.5% Replacement of old Boiler Plant: 2.7% Double-Glazing Installation: 2.7% Encourage behavioural change that will reduce demand for electricity and gas in domestic properties in GM. Provision of smart meters to provide information to householders on energy use; Education programme in schools about reducing electricity and gas use; Community advertising campaigns around energy and gas use % 3.9% Encourage development of consistent planning policies that require all residential developments to be zero carbon by Continuing discussions on the establishment of an Energy Spatial Plan that could recommend consistent approaches to new developments; How to support the skills and knowledge development required to enable developers in GM to meet higher energy efficiency standards for domestic buildings. 3 Some reductions were considered as part of national actions chapter on building regulations Table 22: Expected Results for Greater Manchester Residential Sector Energy Efficiency Potential in Manchester Commerce/Services Sector The commercial and service sector consumes a significant proportion of GM s energy and, due to a bias toward electricity use, currently accounts for 36% of GM s CO 2 emissions. Similarly to the residential sector, the main national action in this field is the statement that non-residential buildings should be zero carbon by This deadline is anticipated to 2016 for new schools. As regards local actions, there are several commercial and public sector organisations in GM that are taking action to increase energy efficiency in the commerce/services sector. Among the main actions are: - education and information sharing on retrofitting commercial and service buildings with measures to reduce energy consumptions; - funding and finance to include supporting commercial and public sector retrofitting projects; - development of consistent planning policies that require all non-residential developments to be zero carbon by 2019; - encouragement of behavioral change to reduce energy use in commercial and service sector buildings; - implementation of demonstration commercial and service sector projects in GM; - roll-out of commercial and service sector retrofitting programme. The expected reduction of greenhouse gases emissions for each of the proposed actions is shown in Table 23.

54 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 54 Action Steps to Facilitate Action Priority (1-3) Potential Impact on GM Emissions (2020) Potential Impact on GM Emissions (2050) Encourage behavioural change to reduce energy use in commercial and service sector buildings. Development and implementation of a programme to encourage reduce energy use in commercial and service sector buildings; Encourage uptake of Environmental Management Systems incorporating behavioural change actions % 2.4% Develop partnership with Universities through the Low Carbon Laboratory; Implement demonstration commercial and service sector projects Identify potential demonstration projects with willing partners; Identify funding and finance for demonstration projects; Deliver demonstration projects and publicize them as case studies. 2 Figures were developed for the rollout of commercial retrofitting actions rather than demonstration projects Roll out commercial and service sector retrofitting programme. This action would draw upon experience from the demonstration projects above to develop a more comprehensive retrofitting programme. 1 Energy Efficient Lighting: 0.4% Modify Building Heating Set Points: 1.2% Night-Time Cooling: 0.3% Energy Efficient Lighting: 0.7% Modify Building Heating Set Points: 2.4% Night-Time Cooling: 0.7% Time Switches on Small Equipment: 0.2% Time Switches on Small Equipment: 0.3% Table 23: Expected Results for Greater Manchester Commerce/Services Sector

55 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential DISTRICTS OVERVIEW As outlined in the DIMMER project proposal, the leading thread in the selection of the districts to be analyzed as case studies within the project was heterogeneity, complementariness and replicability. As regards the complementariness of the case studies, it is worth noting that the two sites show different characteristics both in terms of energy distribution as well as of building usage, materials, construction period and energy performance. A special mention is required for the energy networks. In fact, focus is applied to the heat network (i.e. district heating) for the Turin district, while Manchester demonstrator concentrates on electricity and gas distribution. For both sites, real-time data are acquired and access to historic energy and utility consumption data in general is available. The following paragraphs include the description of the main features of the two selected Districts: a more detailed discussion on the characteristics of the demonstrators can be found in D Turin district In Turin, the Polito s District has been chosen as a DIMMER demonstrator: this university district is not far from the city center (see Figure 4.1) and it is characterized by the presence of different intended uses both public and private buildings that enable studies into energy-saving opportunities at district level and the possibility to extend methodologies and results to other parts (districts) of the city. Figure 4.1: Turin Polito s District Inside the district, seven representative buildings have been selected, as shown in Figure 4.2: 1. The Polytechnic University of Turin; 2. Primary School Michele Coppino; 3. Kindergarten Paolo Braccini; 4. Comune di Torino Direzione Smart City; 5. Student Accommodation Renato Einaudi;

56 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential Residential building, Via Pigafetta 52; 7. Residential building, Corso Mediterraneo 130. Residential buildings represent the main sector in the selected district in terms of gross surface area and consequently of energy requirements. Although residential buildings represent 85% of the district, they are heterogeneous in terms of users (students, private owners and workers), construction techniques and periods. On the other hand, 15% of the district is constituted by public facilities, mainly connected with educational and administrative activities. As regards the construction types, the most popular techniques in the area are constituted by load-bearing masonry (mostly used until the 50s) and reinforced concrete; in many cases, a mixed solution between the two technologies is applied. The selected buildings cover all the main construction periods (between the end of the 19 th century and 2013), thus considering also different building techniques and materials. In particular, the district is characterized by two different phases of urbanization: the first ( Crocetta S. Teresina ) dating back to the period between 1870 and 1930, and the second ( S. Paolo ) completed after The presence of several more recent buildings is due to the reconstruction of part of the district after the Second World War, due to bomb damage. Finally, as regards the energy performance of the buildings, about 50% of them are G-class, 27% are F-class, and only less than 3% are in class C or higher. Figure 4.2: Building selection in Turin district

57 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 57 All these elements have been taken into account in the selection of the district and of the specific buildings. With the exception of Student Accommodation Renato Einaudi, all the selected buildings are connected to the district heating network, which is the main focus of energy efficiency studies in the Turin demonstrator. More in detail, the area is served by a low-emission heat only boiler power plant for district heating. Finally, as regards the electricity grid, small renewable plants are present, but they are used only for dedicated building electricity production, with little impact on the grid balancing. 4.2.Manchester district The Manchester district and pilot building characteristics are described in detail in D1.1. The Oxford Road Corridor area (shown in the figure to the right) has been chosen as a district for DIMMER. The Oxford Road Corridor ( the Corridor ) is home to the University of Manchester, the Manchester Metropolitan University and the Central Manchester University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust (CMFT) making the Corridor not only the largest education campus in the UK but also the largest clinical academic campus in Europe. The DIMMER study will focus on University of Manchester buildings where a large proportion of the building stock was constructed during , although a recent capital programme has changed the profile somewhat. Figure 4.3: Oxford Road Corridor The revised list of Manchester Pilot buildings is presented below with building outlines and corresponding numbering.

58 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential Ferranti 2. The Mill 3. Paper Science Building 4. Manchester Business School (MBS) East 5. Manchester Business School (MBS) West 6. James Chadwick Building 7. Precinct 1 8. Precinct 2 (Crawford House) 9. Alan Gilbert Learning Commons (AGLC) 10. Stopford Building 11. Main Library (John Rylands University Library) 12. Manchester Museum 13. Arthur Lewis 14. Humanities Bridgeford Street (HBS) 15. NWCP (car park) 16. Beyer 17. Coupland Coupland 2 (Martin Harris) 19. Coupland John Owens 21. Christie 22. Whitworth Hall 23. Pharmacy 24. Samuel Alexander 25. Ellen Wilkinson 26. Whitworth Park Aberdeen House Figure 4.4: Manchester Oxford Road Corridor selected buildings The location of the trial was selected following a shortlisting process undertaken in partnership across the UK participants. Criteria including: - Availability of existing datasets - Availability of data throughout the trial - Replicability to other urban, civic complexes in the UK and elsewhere - Mix of building energy profiles - Likelihood of developing a DIMMER outputs market - Ability to introduce interventions and tools uniformly across the pilot area. In the case of Manchester, although it is recognised that some of the largest energy saving potential is in the residential sector, levers are not in place to promote the deployment of DIMMER tools at scale, and the market structure of the UK s energy system means that civic infrastructure such as universities, public sector buildings and health are much more effective in tool development and testing. Also, the nature of UK cities mean that this kind of co-located, semi-

59 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 59 interdependent building stock is present in the majority of large towns and cities in the UK, although generally at smaller scale than is the case for Manchester. 5. DISTRICT ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL In this chapter, the efficiency targets described in D1.1 per each demonstration site have been included, to cover all the aspects involved in the scope of the project. 5.1.Turin district Turin Demonstrator energy savings potential will be evaluated considering the portion of district heating network which supplies heat to the selected district. It has been considered that district heating is the energy system which best matches with the efficiency studies and actions of the DIMMER project, providing significant results at utility, public bodies and final customer s level. The surroundings of Politecnico Campus are connected to the district heating network with a market penetration of about 50%, which slightly differs from the district heating total market penetration in Turin (almost 60%). Turin owns the largest district heating network in Italy, with 474 km of dual piping and a heating capacity corresponding with a volume of around 56 million m 3. The network is made up of a primary line or backbone (large-diameter pipes) with several thermal hubs (a thermal hub is a conventional point/knot of the network backbone or primary lines from which secondary lines - smalldiameter pipes that reach the various buildings - branch off). The network is fed by 3 Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) Plants (total of 1200 MWe), peak boilers (more than 1000 MWth) and thermal energy storages (12500 m 3 ). In terms of district heating network, Polito s District is made up of several thermal hubs: BCT 418 (the one that feeds Politecnico Campus), BCT 413, BCT 411, BCT 412, BCT 410, BCT 414, BCT 410 and other smaller ones. Some of these hubs have similar features in terms of customer typology, power installed and network pipe length: this gives the possibility for setting up a representative Demonstrator with some of them and a well-defined Validation Set with some of the others for a comparison of energy-efficiency actions taken and validation of results. The final definition of the two groups (the Demonstrator and the Validation Set), that is the choice of the most appropriate thermal hubs, will take into account several aspects: Heterogeneity of building typologies and uses among the chosen demonstrator but comparability with the other parts of the area and/or city; Market penetration of the various thermal hubs; New-generation remote control of the various thermal substations (which are constituted of a single heat exchanger in the basement of each served building), equipped with energy-saving management options; Good exploitation of the thermal hubs hydraulic and thermal capacity and absence of network failures or weaknesses (due both from design or operation phases); Evaluation and comparison of consumption data (based also on historical sets) of the various thermal hubs.

60 D1.4 - Energy Saving Potential 60 Figure 5.1: Location of the substations in the Politecnico district District System Description: District Heating Network Turin District heating network in Politecnico District will be the focus of the job. Substantial energy saving potential can be evaluated and energy policies can be defined once the equipment will be put in place in the thermal substations and in some reference buildings and apartments. As described in D1.1, the following works will be necessary in order to exploit the energy saving potential of the district heating network: Installation of a temperature sensor on the return of the building network: each building heat exchanger is already equipped with three temperature sensors on the secondary network delivery land return lines and on the building network delivery line (see figure below). Installing the fourth temperature sensor on the return line of the building network will help managing the heat exchanger operation & maintenance and implementing some energy savings actions. Figure 5.2: Building heating system PFD