Global Alternative Fuel Light Vehicle Sales Forecast. April 2010 Mike Omotoso Senior Manager, Global Powertrain

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1 Global Alternative Fuel Light Vehicle Sales Forecast April 2010 Mike Omotoso Senior Manager, Global Powertrain

2 CAFE facts National Standard Removes State by State Uncertainty 2011 model year: 27.3 mpg fleet average 2.0 mpg increase over the 2010 model year average 30.2 mpg for cars, 24.1 mpg for light trucks Current standard: 27.5 mpg for cars, 23.5 mpg for MY2010 trucks Alternative Fuel Tax Credits 2016 model year: Car: mpg Truck: mpg Hybrids: Range from $0 to $3400 Fleet: Cost = $948 $3,000 per vehicle Savings Potential 1.8B barrels of oil 900 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions Diesels: Range from $900 to $ Bluetec $2, BMW X5 d $900 Plug-in/Electric vehicles: max = $7,500

3 Global Diesel Sales Outlook Sales in 000s REGION Western Europe 8,900 7,207 6,955 7,538 8,331 8,821 9,154 9,280 9,225 Eastern Europe 1, ,144 1,387 1,651 1,849 2,012 2,151 North America ,194 1,420 1,579 1,716 South America Asia 3,092 3,502 3,651 3,933 4,281 4,661 5,051 5,386 5,621 Other ,005 1,096 1,263 1,353 1,397 1,439 World 14,880 13,100 13,254 14,775 16,569 18,162 19,425 20,268 20,782 West Europe is the biggest diesel market, followed by Asia Diesel volume in Asia grows by 2 million units from Growth in North America will be in the light-duty pickup and SUV/CUV segments Diesel market in South America remains below 1 million units. Market is dominated by flex fuel vehicles in Brazil Global diesel volume grows by over 7.5 million units from Diesel will remain the second most popular fuel type behind gasoline

4 U.S. Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Market: 22 models Hybrid Vehicles available in the U.S. today (March 1, 2010) Toyota Prius Toyota Camry Toyota Highlander Lexus RX450h Lexus GS450h Lexus LS600h Lexus HS250h Nissan Altima Mercury Milan Mercury Mariner BMW X6 Active hybrid Honda Civic Honda Insight Ford Escape Ford Fusion Mercedes-Benz S400 hybrid Mercedes-Benz ML450H GMC Sierra two-mode GMC Yukon two-mode Chevrolet Tahoe Yukon two-mode Chevrolet Silverado two-mode Cadillac Escalade two-mode Japan was the largest single hybrid market in 2009, but we expect the U.S. to be the largest hybrid market in the world from 2010 on 1 million hybrids by 2013, almost 1.5 million by 2016 All domestic manufacturers are expected to have hybrid and plug-in vehicles in their portfolio by 2011 The Toyota Group currently dominates the hybrid market, but there will be more competition from European and Korean OEMs in all segments Over 100 HEV and PHEV models will be offered by ,400 1,200 1, % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 Hybrid Sales Hybrid Market Share

5 Global Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Sales Forecast HEV/PHEV Sales Region/Country USA 316, , , , ,039 1,050,921 1,236,548 1,396,669 1,488,554 Japan 120, , , , , , , , ,137 China 899 1,883 8,282 20,254 32,517 47,586 56,885 62,207 68,622 Europe 81,067 82, , , , , , , ,734 Other 7,000 11,000 20,000 50,000 75,000 90,000 97, , ,000 World 525, , ,296 1,216,103 1,673,392 2,075,072 2,321,509 2,681,174 2,848,047 BEV Sales Region/Country USA 151 1,310 2,710 9,039 25,935 51,724 68,488 63,176 64,722 Japan ,029 18,757 27,295 35,238 39,726 41,752 42,934 China - - 7,746 17,157 33,616 59,502 89, , ,880 Europe ,000 5,000 8,000 15,000 25,000 40,000 50,000 Other ,500 4,000 7,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 24,000 World 301 3,774 22,985 53, , , , , ,536 In 2009, Japan took over from the US as the largest hybrid light vehicle market Global HEV sales in 2015 are expected to be 2.7M units, or 3% of global light vehicle sales China is expected to be the largest single market for BEVs by 2012 South America will be dominated by flex fuel vehicles for the foreseeable future High cost of Li-ion batteries will stifle growth of BEVs and PHEVs Sales of HEV/PHEV/BEV are highly dependent on gas prices

6 Battery Suppliers The hybrid and electric vehicle battery market is dominated by Japanese suppliers European and American companies are entering the market to supply vehicles such as the Mercedes- Benz S-Class hybrid, the BMW ActiveE, Chevrolet Volt PHEV and Ford Transit connect BEV Sanyo will supply batteries to Audi for their electric vehicles starting in 2012/13 BYD in China make their own batteries and BEVs Supplier Battery type Vehicle manufacturer Panasonic EV Energy NiMH Toyota Panasonic EV Energy NiMH Honda Sanyo NiMH Honda A123 Systems Li-ion Fisker Automotive Energy Supply Li-ion Nissan Compact Power Li-ion GM Continental Li-ion Daimler GS Yuasa Li-ion Honda Johnson Controls-Saft Li-ion Ford Lithium Energy Japan Li-ion Mitsubishi NEC Li-ion Fuji Heavy Sanyo/Panasonic EV Energy Li-ion Toyota SB LiMotive Li-ion BMW

7 Hybrid and BEV News Q Toyota plans to sell 500 Camry hybrids per year in China. Camry hybrid is built in Guangdong province. Toyota will license hybrid technology to Mazda to sell hybrids by 2013 Mitsubishi lowers price of i-miev by $6,740 to $43,020 from April 1 in response to Nissan announcing price of Leaf BEV at $40,640 starting in 12/10 Toyota sold 27,008 Prius in Japan in February Best-selling car in Japan so far this year Honda has already received orders for 7000 CR-Z hybrids in Japan. It should easily exceed the sales target of 12,000 units for Nissan Leaf will be priced at $32,780 in the US starting in December lease rate is $349/mo for 36 months with $1999 down. Federal tax break and California tax break means $20,280 to consumer. Chrysler cancels Dodge Ram hybrid plans and will produce Ram PHEV instead from 2011 Lincoln MKZ hybrid launched at New York Auto Show. Same specs as Ford Fusion hybrid

8 Gasoline and diesel will dominate in the medium term Gasoline and diesel powered vehicles accounted for over 90% of light vehicle sales in 2008 Hybrid and electric vehicles accounted for less than 1% of LV sales. Most HEV sales were in US, Japan and Western Europe Gasoline share will drop at the expense of hybrid and electric vehicles Diesel share grows slightly while flex fuel share remains flat Two main flex fuel markets are US and Brazil W. European diesel market is saturated and most growth will occur in Asia Electric vehicle growth will be in developed markets and China Global hybrid volume is expected to be 2.5 million units in 2015 Global BEV volume approaches 300,000 in 2015 Gasoline 71.2% HEV 0.8% Gasoline 68.1% BEV 0.005% Diesel 22.5% Flex Fuel 5.4% HEV 3% BEV 0.3% Diesel 23.3% Flex Fuel 5.4%

9 Competition/threats to the future of alt fuel vehicles What if Peak Oil is just a scare and gas prices remain below $3/gallon long-term? We might not need diesels or hybrids, let alone electric vehicles There are several cheaper ways to improve fuel economy o GDI: 8-12% gain o Turbocharging: 10% gain o Ecoboost: 15-20% gain o HCCI: 15-25% gain o DCT: 5% gain o 6/7/8 speed automatic transmission: 3-6% gain o Vehicle weight reduction: 5-10% gain o Micro- or mild hybrid (stop-start): 8% gain o Electric power steering : 4-6% gain o Variable valve timing o Cylinder deactivation o Low rolling resistance tires o Low friction lubricants o Aerodynamic drag reduction

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