FIXED NETWORK DATA TRAFFIC WORLDWIDE: FORECASTS AND ANALYSIS

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1 RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT FIXED NETWORK DATA TRAFFIC WORLDWIDE: FORECASTS AND ANALYSIS RUPERT WOOD analysysmason.com

2 About this report This report analyses the drivers and inhibitors of fixed-line data traffic, and forecasts the volume, type and source of that traffic worldwide, as well as the bandwidths required to support it. Our findings are based on several sources, including: Analysys Mason s regional forecasts, and FTTx and wireless traffic forecasts data from operators, service providers and regulators discussions with stakeholders particularly operators. KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED IN THIS REPORT How much traffic will there be on fixed networks? How will that traffic be split in terms of Internet, managed IP and multicast IPTV? How will that traffic be split in terms of end-user devices: TVs, PCs and mobile devices? Will next-generation access (NGA) deliver more traffic, or does the increase in traffic drive NGA? How will median usage differ from the mean? How will upstream traffic evolve? How will busy-hour bandwidth evolve? Forecasts are provided for: Eight geographical regions GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE 19 countries/sub-regions Central and Eastern Europe Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey Developed Asia Pacific Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea Emerging Asia Pacific China, India, Malaysia Latin America Brazil Middle East and North Africa North America USA Sub-Saharan Africa Western Europe France, Germany, Italy, Nordic region, Spain, UK WHO NEEDS TO READ THIS REPORT Vendors and executives in operators CTO offices who are responsible for network dimensioning, because this report provides data on where and why fixed IP traffic is generated. Service planners and marketing teams that are considering the way content provision should be tied to network launches and promotions. 2

3 Mobile (GB per pop per month) Fixed network data traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis The degree of correlation between mobile usage and fixed usage was weak at December 2014 Figure 15: Fixed Internet and mobile data usage per capita, selected countries, December Malaysia Brazil India MORE THAN 10% MOBILE Japan 5 10% MOBILE Turkey China Italy Russia Poland Australia Germany Spain Romania France Hong Kong South Korea Fixed (GB per pop per month) The countries with high fixed and mobile usage all have highly advanced fixed and mobile networks, but those countries with either very high or very low proportionate mobile usage are a mixed group. Mobile data traffic exceeds 10% of total Internet traffic in only three of these countries India, Japan and Malaysia. In China, France and Romania, mobile data s share remains less than 2.5%. 1 The high mobile usage in the Nordic region (particularly Finland and Sweden) and, to a lesser extent, in Australia and Russia is mainly caused by high usage of substitutive mobile (or LTE fixed wireless) broadband. This is less common in other developed economies. USA UK Nordics % MOBILE LESS THAN 2.5% MOBILE Source: Analysys Mason 1 For the sake of simplicity, we have assumed all mobile data traffic is Internet traffic, although a small proportion is not. However, the fixed figure excludes managed IP and multicast TV. 21

4 Percentage of traffic Fixed network data traffic worldwide: forecasts and analysis The largest VoD services have a dramatic effect on usage levels Many new services, platforms and devices enable on-demand TVbased viewing of TV content and films via broadband. These services are the main new drivers of traffic, and they are supplanting in terms of traffic the longer-established free videohosting services such as Youku or YouTube (although some are, in effect, commercial developments of these platforms). These new services have different business models compared with longerestablished services and their fit with local and regional circumstances, as well as the popularity of the content in individual markets, will define their impact on traffic. New SVoD OTT services: for example, Netflix, LeTV, iqiyi (Baidu). Netflix accounts for some 20 35% of total traffic in markets where it has launched. Proprietary SVoD OTT services include HBO, NOW TV (Sky), Horizon (UPC). Catch-up FTA platforms and services such as YouView (UK FTA distributed mainly via ISPs). The impact on traffic of these platforms and of the services they support primarily depends on the share of TV viewing that their broadcast counterparts enjoy. For example, in the UK, BBC iplayer commands a higher share of traffic than RTE Player in Ireland. SVoD services using channels other than broadband. BBC iplayer on Virgin Media, for example, uses a different portion of cable spectrum from DOCSIS broadband. We count this as managed IP, not Internet, traffic. Figure 22: Video s share of IP data traffic, by device type, worldwide, % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Cloud TV is usually thought of as unicast (VoD) OTT, but there is growing interest in linear OTT services. Some content types are of greater value live (such as sport, one-off events, news), and some viewers do not want on-demand. For traditional broadcasters, this represents another way to extend the reach of their content, and it may also be a way to deliver less popular channels on cable and free up capacity for DOCSIS broadband. It is difficult to come to a clear view of video share of traffic because of the variety of format types available (including nonreal-time downloads). However, we assume that it will rise in developed markets from 61% in 2015 to 83% by TVs Mobile devices PCs and other Source: Analysys Mason 27

5 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY RECOMMENDATIONS FORECASTS DRIVERS AND INHIBITORS ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON 35

6 About the author Rupert Wood (Principal Analyst) is lead analyst for Analysys Mason s Fixed Networks and Wireless Networks research programmes. His primary areas of specialisation include next-generation networks, long-term industry strategy and forecasting the dynamics of convergence and substitution across fixed and mobile platforms. Rupert regularly contributes to the international press on a wide range of telecoms subjects and has been quoted by The Times, The Economist, Business Week, Telecommunications Online and La Tribune. Rupert has a PhD from the University of Cambridge, where he was a Lecturer before joining Analysys Mason. 36

7 About Analysys Mason Knowing what s going on is one thing. Understanding how to take advantage of events is quite another. Our ability to understand the complex workings of telecoms, media and technology (TMT) industries and draw practical conclusions, based on the specialist knowledge of our people, is what sets Analysys Mason apart. We deliver our key services via two channels: consulting and research. Research We analyse, track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises, as well as the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Research clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence in addition to direct access to our team of expert analysts. Our dedicated Custom Research team undertakes specialised and bespoke projects for clients. For more information, please visit Enterprise and M2M Regional markets Network technologies Telecoms software Consumer services Strategy and planning Regulation and policy Performance improvement Transaction support Consulting Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We support multi-billion dollar investments, advise clients on regulatory matters, provide spectrum valuation and auction support, and advise on operational performance, business planning and strategy. We have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver tangible results for clients around the world. For more information, please visit 37

8 Published by Analysys Mason Limited Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Registered in England No All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any client-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.

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