IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS AGAINST PRESIDENT DILMA ROUSSEFF

Transcription

1 December 2015 IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS AGAINST PRESIDENT DILMA ROUSSEFF The president of the House of Representatives, Eduardo Cunha (PMDB/RJ), has decided to initiate the analysis of the denunciations against President Dilma Rousseff for fiscal responsibility crimes, a process that could lead to her removal from office. The decision and subsequent process to remove her can take a considerable amount of time and relies on a great deal of support from members of congress. The results are uncertain and, until the end of the proceedings, many variables may come along and directly affect the outcome. Important stakeholders are still defining their positioning on the issue. However, it is already possible to analyze the existing factors that contribute to her permanence and the ones that could lead to her removal. THE DENUNCIATION The accepted denunciation defends that the President has committed responsibility crimes in her current mandate Eduardo Cunha (PMDB/RJ) has accepted one of the denunciations registered in the lower House against Dilma Rousseff. According to the Federal Constitution, the President cannot be held responsible for actions previous to his or her mandate. The argumentation alleges that President Rousseff signed decrees opening supplementary credits for public bodies, even when she already knew that the primary fiscal target for the year would not be reached. According to the Constitution and to the 2015 Annual Budget Law, the opening of such credits can only be done if in accordance with the attainment of the fiscal target. Cunha s move against the President took place hours after Dilma Rousseff s political party, PT, decided that its members would vote for the continuation of the process that judges Cunha for unconformity to parliamentarian ethics, which could remove him from office. For that, his decision was seen as a retaliatory strike, which weakens his impeachment agenda against the president. IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS The House of Representatives only analyzes the denunciations. The Federal Senate is the body responsible for making the judgement call. The House of Representatives is responsible for receiving and analyzing denunciations of responsibility crimes committed by the President of the Republic, and for deciding on whether or not to accept such denunciations. The Federal Senate is the chamber responsible for processing and judging the President of the Republic, after the House of Representatives has emitted its opinion.

2 In both Houses, the case is first analyzed by a Special Committee, and afterwards voted in Plenary. In Plenary, the approval of the impeachment relies on the approval of twothirds of the parliamentarians. The impeachment is both juridical and political The impeachment request needs to have a strong legal argument in order to be accepted and to avoid having its legitimacy heavily questioned. However, the final decision is completely taken by the parliamentarians, who are strongly influenced by political motivations and public opinion. The proceedings are not completely defined by the Legislation, which is expected to lead to a process of judicial rulings There are several details on the impeachment proceedings that are not legally defined. More than once, Eduardo Cunha defined details on the proceedings, which were subsequently suspended by the Federal Supreme Court (STF). Some of the issues that have been questioned by the allied base on the Judiciary branch have been the proportionality of the distribution of seats per party for the composition of the Special Committee; and whether the voting in Plenary for the Committee s members should be secret or not. Given the legal uncertainty, the STF will have an important role in the definition of the procedures of the impeachment analysis of Dilma Rousseff. The composition of the Committee is important since it will be the forum where denunciations against Dilma will be analyzed more deeply. After the creation of the Committee, the President is notified and has 10 sessions to present his or her defense. Afterwards, the Committee will have 5 more sessions to vote in favor or against the continuation of the process, by single majority. The Committee s verdict is important, because it may influence the Plenary. For that, the government has the challenge of guaranteeing a favorable composition of the Committee. However, in any case, the final decision on the continuation of the impeachment proceedings will be made in Plenary.

3 ANALISIS STAKEHOLDERS REACTIONS AND POSITIONING:

4 FACTORS THAT CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUITY OF ROUSSEFF S MANDATE: 1. The approval of an impeachment relies on a great deal of support in Congress. If the voting in the House of Representatives were today, the impeachment would likely be avoided: Parties that would vote in favor of Dilma Scenarios for the government in the House of Representatives Optimistic Pessimistic Intermediate PT, PCdoB, 2/3 PSOL, 2/3, PT, PCdoB, PSOL, Rede, PDT, Rede, 2/3PDT, 1/3PSD, 2/3PSD, 1/2PMDB, 2/3PP, (average) 1/5PMDB, 1/3PP, 1/3PR, 2/3PR, 2/3PSB, 2/3PTB 1/3PSB, 1/3PTB, Pro Dilma Against Dilma Result: Dilma continues Dilma is removed Dilma continues Number of "pro Dilma" votes necessary for her continuation: 171 The table considers the parties from the allied base and their general position over the past few months and after the announcement of Cunha s decision to initiate the process. The allied base is currently fragmented and uncertain. Some of its parties have been more loyal to the government than others. For that, it is important to note that the estimations above depend on several factors and that the parties positions are undefined and dynamic. 2. The context of Cunha s decision will be used to weaken the impeachment agenda Cunha s decision was understood as a political move and a retaliation against PT for having decided to continue a process to attempt to remove him from power. He has no legitimacy inside Congress and has lost the trust of the people, since he is currently under investigation for corruption and money laundering in the Petrobras scandal. Moreover, he has been losing credibility for being defining steps of the impeachment proceedings that are not necessarily legal. His lack of legitimacy in defending Rousseff s removal from office when he himself is an offender and is being investigated by the House of Representatives, might contribute to the weakening of his move against the president. At the same time, however, he still has a strong political support inside the House of Representatives. 3. The judicial interpretation of the case may lead to its delay and weakening Given the fact that the proceedings are not fully defined, many of the decisions on its details will be discussed inside the Federal Supreme Court, which could take a long period of time. The Judiciary will play a decisive role in this case, once the fragmented forces in the Legislative fail to come to procedural consensus.

5 FACTORS THAT CONTRIBUTE TO DILMA ROUSSEFF S IMPEACHMENT 1. Dilma Rousseff has a very low approval rating According to Datafolha s last survey, the President has a 67% disapproval rating and only a 10% approval rating, much of it related to the pessimism due to the economy scenario and the corruption scandals. Since the parliamentarian s vote on the impeachment in Plenary is public, and given Dilma Rousseff s very poor approval rating, their decision will be influenced by public opinion. On the other hand, the publicity of the votes can also influence the indecisive parliamentarians from the allied base to stick with the government side, since it can be risky for them to betray the government in case Dilma Rousseff remains in charge. The approval rates Dilma has today are lower than what the former President Fernando Collor had when he was impeached. At the same time, Collor had lost support from Congress and tried to govern even when isolated from the Legislative branch, which was decisive for his removal from office. While Dilma, on the other hand, still has some support in the Congress and from social movements. Nonetheless, it is also possible to expect that part of the population will organize new public demonstrations against the President, incentivizing her removal. In contrast, the Vice-President, Michel Temer, currently counts with the support of the business sector, after his party, PMDB, published a document proposing pro-market solutions for the economic situation. 2. The accusations can be considered consistent It is not hard to prove that Dilma Rousseff did publish decrees authorizing new credits for public bodies after the government had already proposed a reduction of the fiscal target, which is illegal, given that the government, in this case, was supposed to take actions for the adjustment of the fiscal situation, and not otherwise. Defenders of the government have been alleging that this sort of acting already took place and was approved by controlling bodies in the past mandates. However, independently of the arguments, the accusations against the President are the ones put into discussion and the irregularities are hardly questionable. WHAT COMES NEXT? The political and economic environment in case Dilma Rousseff remains in office, or in case Michel Temer assumes the Presidency, are slightly different. In any case, however, the economic and fiscal situation are likely to remain deteriorated in the mid-term.

6 FINAL CONSIDERATIONS The duration of the process will depend on the Judiciary, and on both the government and the opposition s mobilization It could be finished by as soon as March 2016, or it could take considerably longer. The judicialization of the process will delay it. Moreover, the congressional recess in January could be cancelled and accelerate the process. The government understands that the earliest the voting the better, since it seems to currently have the required support in Plenary for cancelling the impeachment proceedings. While the groups that defend the impeachment wish to postpone the voting in order to gain popular support. Many variables may still change Given that the impeachment is a delicate political subject and that its proceeding takes time, many variables may come along and influence the outcome. In order to understand the current political scenario, it is necessary to take into account the factors that contribute to Dilma Rousseff s permanence and the ones that contribute to her impeachment, and to monitor the stakeholders next moves, since many of the different groups in society are still defining their positions, including the political parties. Regardless of the outcome, it is already possible to state that virtually every contender that may occupy the office of President after the conclusion of this process will still face the challenges of a complex governability and a recessive economy.

7 APPENDIX: IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS