Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis for St. Louis Park, Minnesota

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1 Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis for St. Louis Park, Minnesota Prepared for: City of St. Louis Park St. Louis Park, Minnesota June Nicollet Mall Suite 218 Minneapolis, MN

2 June 18, 2013 Ms. Michelle Schnitker Housing Supervisor City of St. Louis Park 5505 Minnetonka Blvd. St. Louis Park, MN Dear Ms. Schnitker: Attached is the Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis for St. Louis Park, Minnesota conducted by Maxfield Research Inc. The study projects housing demand from 2013 through 2025, and gives recommendations on the amount and type of housing that could be built in St. Louis Park to satisfy demand from current and future residents over the remainder of the decade. The study identifies a potential demand for approximately 3,300 new housing units in St. Louis Park over the remainder of the decade and beyond (2013 to 2025, including a variety of housing options). Demand will be spread across all product types; including 1,048 for sale units, 1,282 general occupancy rental units, and 768 senior units. Detailed information regarding recommended housing concepts can be found in the Conclusions and Recommendations section at the end of the report. We have enjoyed performing this study for you and are available should you have any questions or need additional information. Sincerely, MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Matt Mullins Vice President Attachment

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS... 3 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS... 9 Introduction... 9 Population and Household Growth From 2000 to Population and Household Estimates and Projections Age Distribution Trends Race and Ethnicity Household Income by Age of Householder Tenure by Age of Householder Tenure by Household Income Tenure by Household Size Household Type Net Worth Demographic Summary EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Employment Trends Employment Growth Resident Labor Force Covered Employment by Industry Employment by Earnings Employment by Educational Attainment Commuting Patterns Existing Business Mix by NAICS Major Employers HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS Introduction Residential Construction Trends 2000 to Present Demolition Permits American Community Survey Excensus LLC Age of Housing Stock Excensus Age of Housing Stock Housing Units by Structure and Occupancy or (Housing Stock by Structure Type) Excensus Housing Units by Structure Owner Occupied Housing Units by Mortgage Status Owner Occupied Housing Units by Value... 56

4 Excensus Single Family Housing Units by Value Renter Occupied Units by Contract Rent Definition of Householders Moving Out RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS Introduction Rental Market Overview General Occupancy Rental Projects Licensed Rental Ordinance Rental Market Interview Summary SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS Senior Housing Defined Senior Housing in St. Louis Park FOR SALE HOUSING ANALYSIS Introduction Home Resales in St. Louis Park Area Overview of For Sale Housing Market Conditions Home Resales by Price Range Current Supply of Homes on the Market Lender Mediated Properties Condominium Developments Homestead Exclusion Vacant Lots/New For Sale Construction PLANNED & PENDING HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS Introduction Demographic Profile and Housing Demand Housing Demand Overview Estimated Demand for For Sale Housing Estimated Demand for General Occupancy Rental Housing Estimated Demand for Independent Adult Few Services Senior Housing Estimated Demand for Affordable Independent Senior Housing Estimated Demand for Congregate Senior Housing Demand Estimate for Assisted Living Housing Estimated Demand for Memory Care Housing RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS Introduction/Overall Housing Recommendations Recommended Housing Product Types General Occupancy Rental Housing

5 Senior Housing Challenges and Opportunities APPENDIX Definitions

6 LIST OF TABLES Table Number and Title Page D1. Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections, St. Louis Park Market Area, 2000 to D2. Population Age Distribution, St. Louis Park Market Area, 2000 to D3. Race, St. Louis Park Market Area, 2000 and D4. Ethnicity, St. Louis Park Market Area, 2000 and D5. Household Income by Age of Householder, City of St. Louis Park, 2013 & D6. Tenure by Age of Householder, St. Louis Park Market Area, 2000 & D7. Tenure by Household Income, St. Louis Park Market Area, D8. Household Size, St. Louis Park Market Area, D9. Household Type, St. Louis Park Market Area, 2000 & D10. Networth By Age of Householder, St. Louis Park, D11. Demographic Summary, D12. Demographic Summary, E1. Employment Growth Trends and Projections, St. Louis Park Analysis Area, E2. Resident Employment, City of St. Louis Park, 2000 through E3. Covered Employment Trends, City of St. Louis Park, 2000, 2005, E4. Employment by Earnings, St. Louis Park Analysis Area, E5. Employment by Educational Attainment, St. Louis Park Analysis Area, E6. St. Louis Park Commuting Patterns, E7. Business Summary by NAICS Code, City of St. Louis Park, E8. Major Employers, City of St. Louis Park, HC1. Annual Building Permits Issued, City of St. Louis Park, City Records, 2000 to HC2. Demolition Permits, City of St. Louis Park, 2000 to HC3. Age of Housing Stock, St. Louis Park Market Area, HC4. Excensus Housing Stock by Year Built, St. Louis Park Market Area, HC5. Housing Units by Structure & Tenure, St. Louis Park Market Area, HC6. Excensus Housing Units by Structure, St. Louis Park Market Area, HC7. Owner Occupied Housing Units by Mortgage Status, St Louis Park Market Area, HC8. Owner Occupied Units by Value, St Louis Park Market Area, HC9. Excenus Housing by Value, St. Louis Park Market Area, HC10. Renter Occupied Units by Contract Rent, St. Louis Park Market Area, HC11. Destination Places of Households Moving Out, City of St. Louis Park, R1. Average Rents/Vacancies Trends, St. Louis Park, 2012 & R2. Market Rate General Occupancy Rental Projects, City of St. Louis Park, May R3. Common Area Features/Amenities, City of St. Louis Park, May R4. Affordable/Subsidized Rental Projects, City of St. Louis Park, May R5. Common Area Features/Amenities, Existing Rental Projects, City of St. Louis Park, May

7 R6. MHFA/HUD Income and Rent Limits, Hennepin County, R7. Income Limits Based on Maximum Household Sizes & AMI, Hennepin County, R8. Multifamily Market Rate Rental Developments, Naturally Occurring Rental Housing, City of St. Louis Park, May R9. Multifamily Market Rate Rental Developments, Natural Occurring Summary, St. Louis Park, May R10. St. Louis Park Licensed Rentals, R11. St. Louis Park Licensed Rentals, 2005 to S1. Unit Mix/Size/Cost & Occupancy Comparison, Senior Housing Projects, St. Louis Park, May S2. Unit Features/Building Amenities/Services, Senior Housing Projects, St. Louis Park, May S3. Skilled Nursing Facilities, St. Louis Park Market Area, March FS1. Median Resale Comparison, St. Louis Park Area, 2000 to FS2. Resale Comparison, St. Louis Park Area, FS3. Homes Resales, City of St. Louis Park, 2000 to FS4. Single Family and Multifamily Residential Sales, City of St. Louis Park, FS5. Home Resales by Price Point, City of St. Louis Park, 2000 to FS6. Homes Currently Listed For Sale, City of St. Louis Park, May FS7. Active Listings by Housing Type, May FS8. Active Listings by Housing Type, May FS9. Lender Mediated Sales Percentage, St Louis Park Area, 2008 to FS10. Lender Mediated Real Estate Activity, St. Louis Park Area, 2010 to FS11. St. Louis Park Multifamily Condominium Developments, May FS12. Condominium Development by Decade, City of St. Louis Park FS13. Homestead vs. Non Homestead Comparison, City of St. Louis Park, P 1. Housing Development Pipeline, City of St. Louis Park, May HD1. For Sale Housing Demand, St. Louis Park, 2013 to HD2. Rental Housing Demand, St. Louis Park, 2013 to HD3. Market Rate Active Adult Housing Demand, St. Louis Park, 2013 & HD4. Subsidized/Affordable Independent Housing Demand, St. Louis Park, 2013 & HD5. Market Rate Congregate Rental Housing Demand, St. Louis Park, 2013 & HD6. Market Rate Assisted Living Demand, St. Louis Park, 2013 & HD7. Memory Care Demand, St. Louis Park, 2013 & CR1. Summary of Housing Demand, City of St. Louis Park, June CR2. Recommended Housing Development, St. Louis Park, 2013 to

8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Overview of Study The primary objective of the Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis for St. Louis Park is to provide the City of St. Louis Park and St. Louis Park Housing and Redevelopment Authority with a market based analysis that will identify current and future housing needs in the City. The assessment will help decision makers, both public and private, develop a greater understanding of the community s housing market. The housing needs assessment provides recommendations guiding future housing for existing and future residents and the tools/policies to implement the plan. The housing needs assessment lays out the demographic, economic, and housing market performance in St. Louis Park for expanding housing opportunities. The analysis is the first step in addressing local housing issues and is intended to lay the groundwork for establishing housing goals, priorities, and strategies for meeting the demand. Furthermore, the analysis will assist local builders/developers and financial institutions through streamlining their respective due diligence process. Key Findings 1. Population and household growth is projected to be higher this decade than the last. New growth will result from infill and redevelopment opportunities in mostly higher density housing types. Single family infill will continue to be in high demand, but will be contingent on site availability. 2. The largest age cohort in St. Louis Park is adults between 25 and 34 years old, accounting for 23% of the city s population. Together with young adults ages 18 to 24, one third of the population is between 18 and 34. This demographic consists primarily of renters and firsttime home buyers. 3. The aging baby boomer generation is substantially impacting the composition of St. Louis Park s population. This demographic is projected to have the highest growth and will be aging into their young senior years later this decade. This shift will result in demand for alternative housing products. 4. Household sizes are shrinking and the largest household type is persons living alone while married couple households (with and without kids) continues to decrease. This shift is expected to continue due to shifting demographics (i.e. delayed marriages, fewer children, aging of the population, etc.) 5. Approximately 88% of St. Louis Park s single family housing stock was constructed prior to As a result the homes are located on smaller lots and have smaller square footages compared to buyers needs today. Continued promotion of the City s housing programs should be a priority to encourage reinvestment into the housing stock. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 1

9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6. Over the past year, St. Louis Park has experienced significant new luxury apartment development. Four new projects consisting of over 430 units were constructed in 2013, with additional units either under construction or planned. New market rate rental move up product has opened up more affordable units to moderate income households. As multifamily housing has led the real estate recovery, St. Louis Park has been a highly sought community by developers and investors. Continued demand in this sector is projected along the future Southwest LRT line and other desirable locations. 7. Due to the age of St. Louis Park s rental housing stock, the majority of the units have monthly rents that are affordable to households earning 50% to 60% of Hennepin County AMI. Among the 6,000 market rate units inventoried, nearly 45% of the units area affordable to householders at 50% AMI. Together with 26% of the units affordable at 60% AMI, 71% of the market rate rental housing inventory is affordable at 50% to 60% AMI. 8. Although the St. Louis Park for sale market experienced pricing declines after the real estate boom deflated, St. Louis Park pricing fared much better than most communities in the Metro Area. The median sales price has increased annually since 2011 and the local real estate market activity swelled in the summer of The percentage of lender mediated properties peaked in 2011 (40%) but continues to wane as the housing market recovers. 9. Strong housing demand is projected through Over this time, demand is projected for over 2,600 general occupancy units and 750 senior housing units. However, not all demand may be realized as new housing will result from replacement need, infill, and redevelopment. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 2

10 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Purpose and Scope of Study Maxfield Research Inc. was engaged by the City of St. Louis Park to conduct a Comprehensive Housing Needs Analysis for the City of St. Louis Park. The Housing Needs Analysis provides recommendations on the amount and types of housing that should be developed in order to meet the needs of current and future households who choose to reside in the City. The scope of this study includes: an analysis of the demographic characteristics of the City; a review of the characteristics of the existing housing stock and building permit trends; an analysis of the market condition for a variety of rental and for sale housing products; and an assessment of the need for housing by product type in the City. Recommendations on the number and types of housing products that should be considered in the City are also supplied. Demographic Analysis As of the 2010 Census, the City of St. Louis Park had 45,520 people and 21,743 households. The City of St. Louis Park is forecast to add an additional 3,900 people and 2,007 households between 2010 and The population in St. Louis Park is aging and older age cohorts are accounting for an increasingly significant percentage of the total population. Baby boomers (comprising the age groups 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 in 2010), accounted for an estimated 24.0% of the City s population. Over the next five years, the age 65 to 74 cohort will have the highest growth by percentage and numerically (691 people, or 24.9%). The growth in this age cohort can be primarily attributed to the baby boom generation aging into their young senior years. In addition, the 85+ age cohort also experienced a significant growth between 2000 and 2010, increasing by 22.7%, or 260 people, and is projected to increase another 9.1%, or 137 people, over the next five years. People identifying as Non Hispanic White comprised the largest proportion of the population of the City at 83.3% in This category is by far the largest, but has decreased slightly from 88.9% in 2000 to 83.3% in Although Hispanics/Latinos comprised only 4.3% of the population in 2010, there was a 50% increase between 2000 and The Black/African American population also saw a significant increase between 2000 and 2010, increasing from 4.4% of the City s population (1,930 people) to 7.5% of the City s population (3,372), an increase of 74.7%, or 1,442 people. St. Louis Park had an estimated median household income of $52,378 in It is projected to increase over the next 5 years to $60,781 in 2018 (+16%). MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 1

11 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Median incomes for households in St. Louis Park peak at $66,714 for the 45 to 54 age group in Households in this age group are in their peak earning years. The greatest percentage of households (73.8%) in this age group is homeowners. By 2018, the median income for the 45 to 54 age group is projected to increase to $79,278, 18.8% increase. Senior households with incomes greater than $30,000 can afford market rate senior housing. Based on a 40% allocation of income for housing, this translates to monthly rents of at least $1,000. About 2,473 senior households in St. Louis Park had incomes above $30,000 in Between 2000 and 2010, homeownership rates decreased from 63.6% to 60.7% in the City of St. Louis Park. Between 2000 and 2010, St. Louis Park experienced an increase in all types of households except families that are married with children ( 5.9%) and those married without a child ( 5%). Persons Living Alone grew significantly over the past decade, adding 837 households (10.6%). This could indicate an aging senior population. As the frailty level of these seniors increases, they typically move out of their homes in pursuit of housing with services. A household in the City of St. Louis Park has an average net worth of $395,744 in 2013, about 41% lower than the average net worth of a householder in Hennepin County. St. Louis Park has a median net worth of $56,325 in 2013, about 50% lower than the average net worth in Hennepin County. Housing Characteristics The City of St. Louis Park issued permits for the construction of 1,575 new residential units from 2000 through That equates to about 121 units annually since Through 2007, the City of St. Louis Park issued about 72% of the overall permitted units for the period. Over this period, residential construction averaged about 140 units per year. However, beginning in 2007, building permits declined rapidly, and from 2007 through 2011 the City has averaged only 9 units per year. Over 91% of the units (1,436) since 2000 have been multifamily homes with the remaining (139) being single family homes. Over the past 13 years, the average number of demolitions has averaged five housing units annually. The most common purpose of the demolition permits is to tear down an older home and rebuild a newer infill home. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 2

12 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS St. Louis Park s single family homes are older compared to Hennepin County and the Metro Area. Approximately 88% of St. Louis Park s single family homes were built in 1960 or before compared to 53.0% and 38.0% in Hennepin County and the Metro Area, respectively. Approximately 41% of all renter occupied units are located in structures with 50 or more units. Approximately 79% of St. Louis Park homeowners have a mortgage. About 30% of homeowners with mortgages in St. Louis Park also have a second mortgage and/or home equity loan. Comparatively, about 76% of homeowners in Hennepin County had a mortgage in The median owner occupied home in St. Louis Park was $240,400 or $3,700 less than Hennepin County s median home value ($244,100) but $1,673 higher than the Metro Area ($238,727). The median contract rent in St. Louis Park was $862. Based on a 30% allocation of income to housing, a household in St. Louis Park would need an income of about $34,480 to afford an average monthly rent of $862. Rental Housing Market Analysis Surveyed rental housing in the City of Saint Louis Park included 91 market rate apartment properties (8 units and larger) and eight affordable/subsidized communities in May These projects represent a combined total of 7,450 units, including 7,019 market rate units, 258 subsidized units, and 173 affordable units. Overall, 99 properties were contacted with 84 properties participating in the rental survey (85% participation rate). However, these 84 properties account for 7,176 of the total 7,450 units (96.3%). At the time of our survey, 133 market rate units, one affordable unit, and zero subsidized units were vacant, resulting in an overall vacancy rates of 2.0% for market rate units, 0.6% for affordable, and 0% for subsidized units. The overall market rate vacancy rate of 2.0% is lower than the industry standard of 5% vacancy for a stabilized rental market. Among the over 6,000 market rate units that were inventoried by unit mix and monthly rents, nearly 45% of the units are affordable to householders at 50% AMI. Together with 26% of the units affordable at 60% AMI, 71% of the market rate rental housing inventory is affordable at 50% to 60% AMI. Average monthly rents in the City of St. Louis Park were $763 for studio units, $937 for onebedroom units, $1,374 for one bedroom plus den units, $1,174 for two bedroom units, $1,944 for two bedroom plus den units, and $1,592 for three bedroom units. Overall, the average monthly rent was $1,069, which was a $10 increase from the previous year. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 3

13 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS The overall vacancy rate in St. Louis Park was 3.0%. Vacancy rates below 5% indicate that pent up demand exists for additional rental units in the market. The overall Metro Area vacancy rate is also very low at 2.8%. Apartment properties built between 1990 and 2010 account for 16% of the overall market rate projects. But, this group attributes to almost 27% of the existing market rate rental units. There are a total of eight income restricted projects in St. Louis Park with 431 total units. Combined, only one unit is vacant posting a vacancy rate of only 0.2%. Typically, subsidized and affordable rental properties should be able to maintain vacancy rates of 3% or less in most housing markets. The low vacancy rates in the market indicate pent up demand for affordable and subsidized units and also are an indication of the current economic climate in the area. Managers at surveyed properties stated they had a wide mix of tenants. Some properties indicated that their tenant mix ranged from college students to seniors and was very diverse. However, most property managers believed that the average tenant was a young professional. Developers and real estate agents agreed that smaller unit sizes like studio apartments have become less attractive to prospective residents over the past years. Although studio apartments are less expensive, the price per square footage is typically much higher than other units. Senior Housing Market Analysis As of May 2013, Maxfield Research identified 12 senior housing developments in St. Louis Park. Combined, these projects contain a total of 934 units. Two of the projects are subsidized, while the remaining ten are market rate. There are a total of 196 units in two subsidized senior projects. As of May 2013, 16 units were vacant resulting in a vacancy rate of 7.6%. The newest market rate senior rental project in the City of St. Louis Park is Tower Light on Wooddale Avenue. This project has 29 units designated for assisted living and currently has 13 vacancies. The unit mix is comprised of studio, one bedroom, and two bedroom units. The units range from $3,140 to $4,240 a month. Aquila Commons is the only active adult cooperative in the City of St. Louis Park. Cooperative products involve purchasing a unit (or share) and then paying monthly fees which includes all utilities, of property and commons areas, and future building maintenance. The 106 unit project currently has two vacancies. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 4

14 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Parkshore Place and Knollwood Place are congregate optional services senior rental developments located in St. Louis Park. Parkshore Place is at full capacity, but Knollwood Place has six vacancies, resulting in a vacancy rate of 2.3%. There is only one congregate services included property in the City of St. Louis Park. Tower Light on Wooddale Avenue opened in late 2012 and includes 43 units. As of May 2013, this sector of Tower Light had 21 vacancies resulting in a vacancy rate of 48.8%. High vacancy rate is due to being in the initial lease up phase. St. Louis Park has a total of three assisted living facilities with 149 units. Combined the three projects have 23 openings, resulting in a vacancy rate of 15.4%. However, excluding Tower Light, the vacancy rate is 8.3%. A total of three memory care facilities with 80 units are located in St. Louis Park. Memory care housing is one of the newest trends in senior housing, which caters to seniors with Alzheimer s and other dementia. All of the memory care facilities have been built after Combined the three properties have 25 vacancies, resulting in a vacancy rate of 31%. However, excluding Tower Light, the vacancy rate is 2.1%. For Sale Housing Market Analysis Like across the Twin Cities Metro Area and the nation, pricing in St. Louis Park peaked between 2005 and 2007 at the height of the real estate boom. The median sales price peaked in 2006 at about $234,500 while the average sales price peaked at roughly $254,000 in Between 2000 and 2006/2007, St. Louis Park and the surrounding communities experienced rapid home sale appreciation during the real estate boom. However, after the housing market plateaued in late 2005 through early 2007, St. Louis Park and area communities started to experience sliding housing values as the housing market bubble burst. After adjusting for the downturn in the housing market, St. Louis Park housing values showed appreciation of about 37% between 2000 and 2012; over twice as high as the Metro Area (+18.8%). Compared to the neighboring communities and Metro Area average, St. Louis Park homes realized the highest ratio of the sold price compared to the original list price. Resales in 2012 sold at over 94% of the listing s original list price. The number of resales was highest between 2003 and 2006, averaging nearly 950 resales annually. Resale activity was lowest in 2010 with just over 500 resales. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 5

15 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS The median resale price of homes in St. Louis Park was approximately $198,500 in The income required to afford a home at this price would be about $56,715 to $66,165, based on the standard of 3.0 to 3.5 times the median income (and assuming these households do not have a high level of debt). In 2012, 63% (9,331 households) of St. Louis Park s non senior households had incomes greater than $56,715. Over 40% of the multifamily inventory is listed under $100,000. This product is dominated by older condominiums built in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. Condominium product built this past decade is generally listed above $250,000. One story homes made up the highest percentage (38.4%) of active single family listings. One and one half story homes also account for a significant proportion at 34% of singlefamily listings. These two property types have among the lowest list price per square foot among the entire single family inventory ($137 PSF and $145 PSF respectively). The percentage of lender mediated sales in St. Louis Park increased from 14% in 2008 to 40% in 2011, before decreasing to 27% in St. Louis Park has fared better than the Metro Area over the past five years. There are 40 condominium projects with a total of over 2,700 units in the City of St. Louis Park. Overall, condominium units are older as about 55% of the units were constructed in the 1970s and 1980s. A review of recently sold and actively marketing new single family homes found that home prices ranging from $350,000 to $777,500 with an average sales price of about $510,000. The average price per square foot (PSF) of $185. The average size of 2,700 square feet with four bedrooms and 3.5 baths. Housing Needs Analysis Based on our calculations, demand exists for the following general occupancy product types between 2013 and 2025: o Market rate rental 683 units o Affordable rental 374 units o Subsidized rental 225 units o For sale single family 264 units o For sale multifamily 1,085 units In addition, we find demand for multiple senior housing product types. By 2018, demand for senior housing is forecast for the following: o Active adult ownership 54 units o Active adult market rate rental 232 units MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 6

16 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS o Active adult affordable o Active adult subsidized o Congregate o Assisted living o Memory care 173 units 134 units 17 units 117 units 41 units Recommendations and Conclusions Based on the finding of our analysis and demand calculations, the following chart provides a summary of the recommended development concepts by product type for the City of St. Louis Park through Detailed findings are described in the Conclusions and Recommendations section of the report. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 7

17 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS RECOMMENDED HOUSING DEVELOPMENT ST. LOUIS PARK 2013 to 2025 Owner Occupied Homes Purchase Price/ Monthly Rent Range¹ No. of Units Development Timing Move up $375,000 $500, Ongoing Executive $500, Ongoing Total Townhomes/Twinhomes 2 Move up $250,000 $350, Executive $400, Total Condominums Entry level <$225, Move up $250,000 $350, Executive $375, Total Total Owner Occupied 850 1,040 General Occupancy Rental Housing Market Rate Rental Housing Apartment style (moderate) $1,000/1BR $1,900/3BR Apartment style (luxury) $1,250/1BR $3,000/3BR Townhomes $1,500/2BR $2,000/3BR Total Affordable Rental Housing Apartment style Moderate Income Townhomes Moderate Income Subsidized 30% of Income Total Total Renter Occupied 870 1,025 Senior Housing (i.e. Age Restricted) Active Adult Market Rate Rental 5 $1,000/1BR $1,300/2BR Active Adult Affordable Rental 5 Moderate Income Assisted Living $2,750/EFF $4,200/2BR Memory Care $3,000/EFF $5,000/2BR Subsidized Senior 30% of Income Total Total All Units 2,155 2,595 ¹ Pricing in 2013 dollars. Pricing can be adjusted to account for inflation. 2 Replacement need, infill, and redevelopment. Development of single family homes and townhomes/twinhomes will hinge on land availability. Due to St. Louis Park's location, there is pent up demand that exceeds replacement need. 3 Affordablity subject to income guidelines per Minnesota Housing Finance Agency (MHFA). See Table R 6 for Hennepin County Income limits. 4 Subsized housing will be difficult to develop financially 5 Alternative development concept is to combine active adult affordable and market rate active adult into mixed income senior community Note Recommended development does not coincide with total demand. St. Louis Park may not be able to accommodate all recommended housing types based on land availability and development constraints. Source: Maxfield Research Inc. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 8

18 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Introduction This section of the report examines factors related to the current and future demand for both owner and renter occupied housing in St. Louis Park, Minnesota. It includes an analysis of population and household growth trends and projections, projected age distribution, household income, household types, household tenure, employment growth trends and characteristics, age of housing stock, and recent residential building permit trends in St. Louis Park. A review of these characteristics will provide insight into the demand for various types of housing in the community. Population and Household Growth from 2000 to 2010 Table D 1 presents the population and household growth, respectively, of the St. Louis Park community for 2000 and 2010, as well as estimates and projections through Estimates and projections will be addressed in our Population and Household Estimates and Projections section. The data is from the U.S. Census. Population St. Louis Park s population base grew from 44,126 people to 45,520 people between the years of 2000 and 2010 (1,124 people, +2.5%). Although this was a small change last decade, we expect a significant increase over the next two decades. Growth slowed during the late 2000s due to the housing downturn. While the City of St. Louis Park s population grew by 2.5% between 2000 and 2010, the surrounding areas in Hennepin County experienced a similar growth rate during the same time period (+3.2%). Households Household growth trends are typically a more accurate indicator of housing needs than population growth since a household is, by definition, an occupied housing unit. However, additional demand can result from changing demographics of the population base, which results in demand for different housing products. St. Louis Park added 961 households during the 2000s (+4.6%), increasing its household base to 21,743 households as of Households in Hennepin County increased by 4.3% and the Metro Area increased 9.4% over the same time period. Household growth rates outpaced population growth in St. Louis Park. St. Louis Park s population increased 2.5% compared to a 4.6% increase in households between 2000 and This is the result of fewer persons in each household, caused by demographic and MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 9

19 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS social trends such as couples delaying marriage, an increasing senior base, and couples decisions to have fewer children or no children at all. Population and Household Estimates and Projections Table D 1 presents population and household growth trends and projections for St. Louis Park through 2030 as well. The data from 2000 and 2010 is from the U.S. Census. Estimates for 2013 and projections through 2030 are based on information from ESRI (a national demographics service provider), the Metropolitan Council, and adjusted by Maxfield Research In. based on local trends. The City of St. Louis Park will continue to experience growth during the next decade, but at a faster rate than during the past decade. We project that St. Louis Park will grow by 3,900 persons (+8.6%) and by about 2,000 households (9.2%) between 2010 and In addition, St. Louis Park is projected to grow by 4,000 persons (8.1%) and 2,000 households (8.4%) between 2020 and Since households are occupied housing units, a growth of approximately 2,000 households in St. Louis Park this decade would require an equal number of available units to accommodate the new household growth. Between 2000 and 2010, the population in Hennepin County increased by 36,225 persons (3.2%). It is projected to increase by 69,195 people (6.0%) between 2010 and The number of households is projected to increase by 64,562 households (13.6%). The Metro Area is expected to steadily grow between 2010 and The population will increase by 185,433 persons (6.5%) and 87,251 households (7.8%). The Metro Area is also estimated to grow by nearly 250,000 people (8.2%) and 115,000 (9.5%) households between 2020 and MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 10

20 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS TABLE D 1 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS ST. LOUIS PARK ANALYSIS AREA 2000 to 2030 Change U.S. Census Estimate Forecast 2000 to to to No. Pct. No. Pct. No. Pct. POPULATION St. Louis Park 44,126 45,250 46,200 49,150 53,150 1, , , Hennepin County 1,116,200 1,152,425 1,166,670 1,221,620 1,330,200 36, , , Metro Area 2,642,056 2,849,567 2,901,700 3,035,000 3,284, , , , HOUSEHOLDS St. Louis Park 20,782 21,743 22,245 23,750 25, , , Hennepin County 456, , , , ,475 19, , , Metro Area 1,021,454 1,117,749 1,150,950 1,205,000 1,320,015 96, , , Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; ESRI; Metropolitan Council; Maxfield Research Inc. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 11

21 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Age Distribution Trends Age distribution affects demand for different types of housing since needs and desires change at different stages of the life cycle. Table D 2 shows the distribution of persons within nine age cohorts for the City of St. Louis Park in 2000 and 2010 with estimates for 2013 and projections for The 2000 and 2010 age distribution is from the U.S. Census Bureau and the 2013 figures are an estimate based on 2010 Census data. Maxfield Research Inc. derived the 2018 projections by adjustments made to data obtained from ESRI. The following are key points from the table. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 12

22 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS The 25 to 34 age cohort was the largest cohort in St. Louis Park comprising 23.2% as of This age cohort comprised a significantly higher proportion in St. Louis Park than Hennepin County (16.5%) and the Metro Area (15.0%). St. Louis Park s population of 18 to 34 year olds, which consists primarily of renters and first time homebuyers, increased by 6.0% between 2000 and 2010, and is projected to increase (2.7%) between 2013 and This will increase demand for rental units and starter homes. Between 2000 and 2010, the largest percentage growth occurred in the 55 to 64 (53.3%) and 85 + (22.7%) age groups. The third largest growth age cohort was in the 25 to 34 (10.5%) age group. There was a significant decline in population growth in the 35 to 44 age range, which decreased by 1,123 persons ( 15.4%). No. of Persons 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,279 8,373 8,720 3,829 3,634 3,523 9,369 10,354 11,289 Population Age Distribution City of St. Louis Park 2000, 2010, & ,273 6,150 6,216 5,654 5,889 5,613 3,244 4,974 5,774 2,699 2,560 3,464 2,633 1,910 2,075 1,146 1,406 1,633 Under to to to to to to to and over Age Group Mirroring trends observed across the Nation, the aging baby boomer generation is substantially impacting the composition of St. Louis Park s population. Born between 1946 and 1964, these individuals comprised the age groups 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 in As of 2010, baby boomers accounted for an estimated 24% of St. Louis Park s population. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 13

23 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Census Estimate Projection Change Age No. No. No. No. No. Pct. No. Pct. St. Louis Park Under 18 8,279 8,373 8,399 8, to 24 3,829 3,634 3,705 3, to 34 9,369 10,354 10,717 11, to 44 7,273 6,150 6,084 6,216 1, to 54 5,654 5,889 5,817 5, to 64 3,244 4,974 5,286 5,774 1, to 74 2,699 2,560 2,773 3, to 84 2,633 1,910 1,922 2, and over 1,146 1,406 1,496 1, Total 44,126 45,250 46,200 48,307 1, , Hennepin County Under , , , ,958 6, , to , , , ,391 4, , to , , , ,645 3, , to , , , ,644 37, , to , , , ,431 15, , to 64 85, , , ,232 47, , to 74 59,737 66, , ,648 6, , to 84 44,942 42,476 96, ,901 2, , and over 17,679 21,822 47,367 51,842 4, , Total 1,116,200 1,152,425 1,166,670 1,205,920 36, , Metro Area Under , , , ,678 3, , to , , , ,914 19, , to , , , ,933 9, , to , , , ,860 78, , to , , , ,043 77, , to , , , , , , to , , , ,113 32, , to 84 90,292 97,442 98, ,977 7, , and over 34,338 45,883 48,863 53,475 11, , Total 2,642,056 2,849,567 2,901,700 3,035, , , Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; ESRI; Maxfield Research Inc. TABLE D 2 POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION ST. LOUIS PARK ANALYSIS AREA 2000 to 2018 The 65 to 74 age cohort is projected to have the greatest growth (by percentage and numerically) increasing by 691 people (24.9%) from 2013 to The growth in this age cohort can be primarily attributed to the baby boom generation aging into their young senior years. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 14

24 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% Population Pct. Change by Age Cohort, St. Louis Park & ' to 10' 10' to 18' 53.3% 35.3% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 1.1% 4.1% 3.1% 5.1% 10.5% 9.0% 1.1% 4.2% 4.7% 16.1% 5.2% 8.7% 22.7% 16.1% 20.0% 30.0% 15.4% 27.5% Under to to to to to to to and over SLP Henn. Co. Metro Population Pct. Change by Age Cohort, 2010 to Pct Under to to to to to to to and over The social changes that occurred with the aging of the baby boom generation, such as higher divorce rates, higher levels of education, and lower birth rates has led to a greater variety of lifestyles than existed in the past not only among the baby boomers, but also among their parents and children. The increased variety of lifestyles has fueled demand for alternative housing products to the single family homes. Seniors, in particular, and middleaged persons tend to do more traveling and participate in more activities than previous MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 15

25 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS generations, and they increasingly prefer maintenance free housing that enables them to spend more time on activities outside the home. It is projected that age groups 65 and over will experience growth over the next 5 years and beyond. Seniors over age 65 are the primary market for age restricted ( senior ) housing, including independent and assisted living. Race and Ethnicity Tables D 3 and D 4 present the race and ethnicity of the population in St. Louis Park in 2000 and Whites comprised the largest proportion (83.3% in 2010) of the population in the City of St. Louis Park. While this category has remained the largest since 2000, it has decreased slightly over the past decade, decreasing from 88.9% in 2000 to 83.3% in Two or more races experienced the largest growth based on percentage, increasing by 637 people (+83.7%) between 2000 and Also, the African American population greatly increased by 1,442 people (74.7%). Although Hispanics/Latinos comprised only 4.3% of the population in 2010, there was a 50% increase between 2000 and The terms Whites in this report refers to Non Hispanic Whites or White, Not Hispanic or Latino. As defined by the Census Bureau, Non Hispanic Whites are people who are of the White race and are not of Hispanic or Latino origin/ethnicity. Hence, the designation is exclusive in the sense that it defines who is not included as opposed to who is. Non Hispanic Whites are a subset of White Americans, the other being White Hispanic and Latino Americans. It should be noted that one must select their race as well as whether one is of Hispanic/Latino origin. Since people self identify their racial classification, there may be confusion on the part of some people about what category most accurately describes their race. Some people may choose to self identify using their ethnicity as their race. The increase in diversity of the United States will likely result in some confusion over race/ethnicity figures for some time until additional racial classifications are formulated and assigned to population subsets. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 16

26 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS TABLE D 3 RACE ST. LOUIS PARK ANALYSIS AREA 2000 and No. Pct No. Pct. No. Pct. St. Louis Park White 39, % 37, % 1, % Black or African American 1, % 3, % 1, % American Indian and Alaska Native % % 7 3.5% Asian 1, % 1, % % Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander % % % Some Other Race % % % Two or More Races % 1, % % Total 44, % 45, % 1, % Hennepin County White 898, % 856, % 42, % Black or African American 99, % 136, % 36, % American Indian and Alaska Native 11, % 10, % % Asian 53, % 71, % 18, % Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander % % % Some Other Race 23, % 38, % 15, % Two or More Races 29, % 37, % 8, % Total 1,116, % 1,152, % 36, % Metro Area White 2,238, % 2,246, % 8, % Black or African American 156, % 238, % 82, % American Indian and Alaska Native 4, % 20, % 16, % Asian 121, % 183, % 62, % Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 1, % 1, % % Some Other Race 45, % 74, % 29, % Two or More Races 59, % 84, % 24, % Total 2,626, % 2,849, % 223, % Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Maxfield Research Inc. Change MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 17

27 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS TABLE D 4 ETHNICITY ST. LOUIS PARK ANALYSIS AREA 2000 and No. Pct No. Pct. No. Pct. St. Louis Park Hispanic or Latino 1, % 1, % % Not Hispanic or Latino 42, % 43, % % Total 44, % 45, % 1, % Hennepin County Hispanic or Latino 45, % 77, % 32, % Not Hispanic or Latino 1,070, % 1,074, % 3, % Total 1,116, % 1,152, % 36, % Metro Area Hispanic or Latino 95, % 167, % 71, % Not Hispanic or Latino 2,546, % 2,682, % 135, % Total 2,642, % 2,849, % 207, % Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Maxfield Research Inc. Change Household Income by Age of Householder The estimated distribution of household incomes in the City of St. Louis Park for 2013 and 2018 are shown in Table D 5. The data was estimated by Maxfield Research Inc. based on income trends provided by ESRI. The data helps ascertain the demand for different housing products based on the size of the market at specific cost levels. The Department of Housing and Urban Development defines affordable housing costs as 30% of a household s adjusted gross income. For example, a household with an income of $50,000 per year would be able to afford a monthly housing cost of about $1,250. Maxfield Research Inc. utilizes a figure of 25% to 30% for younger households and 40% or more for seniors, since seniors generally have lower living expenses and can often sell their homes and use the proceeds toward rent payments. A generally accepted standard for affordable owner occupied housing is that a typical household can afford to pay 3.0 to 3.5 times their annual income on a single family home. Thus, a $50,000 income would translate to an affordable single family home of $150,000 to $175,000. The higher end of this range assumes that the person has adequate funds for down payment and closing costs, but also does not include savings or equity in an existing home which would allow them to purchase a higher priced home. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 18

28 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Total Under Less than $15,000 2, $15,000 to $24,999 2, $25,000 to $34,999 2, $35,000 to $49,999 3, , $50,000 to $74,999 4, , $75,000 to $99,999 2, $100,000 to $149,999 2, $150,000 to $199, $200, Total 22,245 1,221 6,078 3,773 3,689 3,429 1,739 2,316 Median Income $52,378 $26,907 $51,965 $63,658 $66,714 $60,175 $49,816 $29, Less than $15,000 2, $15,000 to $24,999 1, $25,000 to $34,999 2, $35,000 to $49,999 3, $50,000 to $74,999 4, , $75,000 to $99,999 4, , $100,000 to $149,999 3, $150,000 to $199,999 1, $200, Total 23,320 1,151 6,383 3,838 3,540 3,727 2,165 2,516 Median Income $60,781 $28,496 $59,519 $77,668 $79,278 $74,790 $55,003 $31,430 Change 2013 to 2018 Less than $15, $15,000 to $24, $25,000 to $34, $35,000 to $49, $50,000 to $74, $75,000 to $99,999 1, $100,000 to $149, $150,000 to $199, $200, Total 1, Median Income $8,403 $1,589 $7,554 $14,010 $12,564 $14,615 $5,187 $2,392 Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research Inc. TABLE D 5 HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER CITY OF ST. LOUIS PARK (Number of Households) 2013 & 2018 Age of Householder St. Louis Park had an estimated median household income of $52,378 in It is projected to increase over the next 5 years to $60,781 in 2018 (+16%, or 3.2% annually). Household incomes are projected to grow highest among householders between 55 and 64, typically the peak earning years. With a household income of $60,175, a younger household (the median household income under age 65) could afford a monthly housing cost of about $1,505, based on an allocation MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 19

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